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MLBTR Podcast: Winter Meetings Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Giants Notes: Payroll, Goldschmidt, Wade

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It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.

That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.

If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.

The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.

Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.

Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.

Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.

The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.

With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.

There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.

Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.

For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.

Giants Re-Sign Ethan Small, Kai-Wei Teng To Minor League Deals

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The Giants brought back pitchers Ethan Small and Kai-Wei Teng on minor league contracts last month (h/t to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy). San Francisco had dropped both players from the 40-man roster at the non-tender deadline.

Neither player had been eligible for arbitration. The non-tender deadline allowed the Giants to cut them both loose before circling back with minor league offers. They’ll keep both in the organization without carrying them on the 40-man roster.

Small, a former Milwaukee first-round pick, landed with the Giants in a DFA trade in February. The 27-year-old southpaw spent most of the season on the injured list. He didn’t pitch in the big leagues with San Francisco. Small was limited to 13 minor league innings over three levels. His major league résumé consists of four MLB appearances in Milwaukee between 2022-23. During his most recent healthy year in the minors, he turned in a 3.18 ERA through 51 Triple-A frames two seasons ago.

Teng, 26, made his first four MLB appearances this year. He allowed 12 runs over 11 innings. The Taiwanese righty had a terrible ’24 season in Triple-A as well. Teng allowed nearly a run per inning across 75 1/3 frames. The 6’4″ righty posted strong strikeout and ground-ball numbers in the low minors but has struggled with his command throughout his career.

Latest On Giants, Corbin Burnes

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With Max Fried joining the Yankees and Garrett Crochet landing with the Red Sox, all eyes are on Corbin Burnes. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner was always, arguably, the best starter up for grabs this winter on either the free agent market or the trade block. Now, he might be the only ace-level pitcher left available.

On Wednesday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested the Blue Jays and Giants would be the two most “aggressive” teams in pursuit of Burnes, though he described the Blue Jays as the favorites. His sources were “skeptical” that San Francisco could beat Toronto in a bidding war, given that the Giants already signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM contract earlier this month. This morning, however, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Giants, not the Blue Jays, are the “heavy favorites” to sign the All-Star right-hander.

On a similar note, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey met with agent Scott Boras late on Tuesday evening, presumably to discuss his client Burnes. Yet, Heyman does not categorize the Giants as the clear favorites, writing that both Toronto and San Francisco are making a “strong push” for the ace. He adds that four more teams are still in the mix for Burnes’s services, including his former team, the Orioles. As Heyman mentions, the Yankees and Red Sox are also thought to be interested, at least to some degree, even after adding Fried and Crochet, respectively. However, it’s not clear who the sixth team Heyman refers to could be. The Mets might have seemed like another potential landing spot, especially before they signed Juan Soto, but Tim Healey of Newsday Sports reported on Tuesday that the Mets are not expected to sign Burnes.

Turning back to the Giants, this is a team that could certainly use another top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Their starters finished 18th in ERA and 29th in innings pitched this past season. Some of their underlying numbers were more promising, such as the ninth-best SIERA in MLB, but after losing Blake Snell, it’s hard to imagine the Giants rotation, as currently constructed, could perform better in 2025. Other than ace Logan Webb, no Giants starter threw more than 125 innings in 2024. Robbie Ray is a huge question mark after missing much of the past two seasons with injuries. Jordan Hicks ran out of gas down the stretch and ultimately had to move back to the bullpen. He also dealt with shoulder issues in August and September. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong are promising young arms but have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level. Neither have Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn, or Mason Black.

At the Winter Meetings, Posey told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that he has “a lot of belief” in his young pitchers and expressed hope they will “take a big step forward” in 2025. Still, the Giants could use another arm to depend on at the top of the rotation. Other than Webb, it’s not clear who on this team could start in a postseason series. Needless to say, Burnes could fill that role. If not Burnes, Pavlovic suggests the Giants are “likely” to sign another veteran starter. They haven’t been linked to many others yet, although they expressed interest in NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano earlier this winter. According to Pavlovic, they were also in on Shane Bieber before he re-signed with the Guardians.

Latest On Corbin Burnes

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Right-hander Corbin Burnes entered the offseason as the consensus top rotation option available in free agency, but following last night’s reported agreement between the Yankees and Max Fried he now stands as the only ace-level pitcher available on the open market this winter. That should put Burnes in strong position to exceed MLBTR’s seven-year, $200MM prediction for the righty. While Boston reportedly put together a formal offer for Corbin Burnes yesterday, a separate report from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized the Blue Jays and Giants as the “most aggressive” teams in their pursuit of Burnes and went on to suggest that the Red Sox “appear hesitant” to spend at the level necessary to land the righty.

Toronto, who Feinsand notes is considered the “favorite” to land Burnes, have been involved on a number of top free agents this winter and made their first major moves of the winter yesterday by agreeing to terms with right-hander Yimi Garcia and trading infielder Spencer Horwitz and outfield prospect Nick Mitchell to land infielder Andres Gimenez and righty Nick Sandlin from the Guardians. While those moves have helped to address the club’s bullpen after they non-tendered Jordan Romano last month and bolster their infield mix, one area of the roster that has not yet been addressed is the rotation.

The Jays dealt lefty Yusei Kikuchi away at the trade deadline, face Chris Bassitt departing in free agency next winter, and saw Kevin Gausman take a step back last year as he enters his mid-30s. Given those realities, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would hope to add a top-of-the-rotation arm to its mix. For a club that’s been involved in top free agents ranging from Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter to Juan Soto and Max Fried this year, it’s hardly a surprise that they’re being aggressive on Burnes with the other top-of-the-market players rapidly coming off the board.

As for the Giants, the club has a clear hole at the front of their rotation after southpaw Blake Snell departed for their archrival Dodgers in free agency last month. Much like the Blue Jays, San Francisco has been deeply involved in the upper levels of free agency in the past several years. While most of that occurred under former president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, Buster Posey kicked his tenure as head decision-maker for the Giants off with a bang over the weekend when he signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year deal. While supplementing their young core with a top-flight starter alongside their twin investments in Adames and Matt Chapman would make plenty of sense, rumors percolated last month that the club could look to scale back payroll this winter, and it’s difficult to imagine them being able to achieve that goal while also bringing Burnes into the fold. Given that reality, it’s perhaps no surprise that sources told Feinsand they were “skeptical” of San Francisco’s odds of outbidding Toronto if the Jays are determined in their pursuit of Burnes.

Perhaps the most interesting piece of Feinsand’s report, however, is the apparent pessimism regarding the Red Sox as a suitor for Burnes. Boston brass haven’t been shy about their plans to be aggressive this winter, particular in pursuit of front-of-the-rotation arms. With Fried and Snell now off the market, Burnes is the last clearly ace-level pitcher available in free agency this winter. Feinsand suggests that the Red Sox could pursue a reunion with right-hander Nick Pivetta in free agency if they miss out on Burnes, though Pivetta’s 4.29 ERA in parts of five seasons with the Red Sox is hardly a front-of-the-rotation level resume.

Other possible solutions Feinsand discussed are right-hander Walker Buehler, whom the Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in, as well as trade market options like White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet. The trade market also seems to be a potential fallback plan for the incumbent Orioles if they miss out on reuniting with Burnes. A report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi earlier today described Baltimore’s hopes of re-signing the star righty as fading and noted that the Orioles have interest in Padres right-hander Dylan Cease in the event that Burnes ultimately lands elsewhere. Cease is not currently seen as likely to move, but the Padres are reportedly exploring his market with the Red Sox also known to be among his potential suitors. Turning back to Boston, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox “seem confident” about their ability to land a top pitcher this winter, although that could mean trading for a player like Crochet or Cease rather than signing Burnes.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Giants Sign Willy Adames

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The Giants officially have their new shortstop. San Francisco finalized their seven-year, $182MM contract with Willy Adames this afternoon. The CAA client will be introduced at Oracle Park on Thursday. The deal, which is the largest in Giants history, reportedly contains a $22MM signing bonus and a full no-trade clause. There is no deferred money on the contract. Adames will make $10MM in the first two seasons of the deal and $28MM in the final five.

Adames, 29, was the top shortstop available on the market this winter and goes to a team that has been candid about its desire to upgrade at the position this winter. They’ve now done so by bringing in one of the league’s steadiest players on both sides of the ball to handle the position.

Adames has been worth at least 3.1 fWAR and 3.0 bWAR in each of his five full, 162-game seasons in the majors thanks to that consistency. A career 109 wRC+ hitter who slashed a strong .251/.331/.462 (119 wRC+) with Milwaukee in 2024, the addition of Adames as a middle-of-the-order bat should help improve a Giants offense that managed just a 98 wRC+ last year.

While San Francisco’s 112 wRC+ at shortstop last year a strong figure, much of that production was thanks to multi-positional bat Tyler Fitzgerald, who took over the position down the stretch but was a lackluster defender with a -4 in Outs Above Average last year. Adames was only worth a +1 figure by OAA last year but posted excellent +16 and +10 figures in the metric in 2022 and ’23 and should be a major upgrade to the club’s defense who forms a dynamic tandem with third baseman Matt Chapman on the left side of the infield. That combination of above-average offense and defense at a premium position on the diamond was enough to make Adames the #5 ranked free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month, where we predicted a six-year $160MM deal for the shortstop.

Adames managed to top that prediction by one year and $22MM, which isn’t necessarily a major shock given the thin infield market and Adames’s wide range of suitors. The Yankees, Phillies, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays, and Red Sox were all linked to Adames in recent weeks, and a handful of those suitors were seemingly drawn in by his willingness to move off of shortstop in order to facilitate a deal. That made him a particularly attractive option for clubs like the Yankees and Astros, for whom a potential position change made Adames an interesting “Plan B” option should they fail to re-sign incumbent sluggers Juan Soto and Alex Bregman given their apparent comfort with incumbent shortstop Anthony Volpe and Jeremy Pena.

Ultimately, however, Adames has landed with a club that figures to play him at shortstop on a daily basis. Fitzgerald, who slashed .280/.334/.497 (132 wRC+) in 96 games with the club last year, seems likely to be in line for the lion’s share of playing time at second base now that he’s been bumped off of shortstop but also has experience at first base and in the outfield that could theoretically lead to a multi-positional role if needed. With former top prospect Marco Luciano as well as youngsters like Heliot Ramos, Luis Matos, and Grant McCray likely to impact the club’s outfield mix next year alongside incumbents Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski, it’s not impossible to imagine the addition of Adames leaving the club more or less set on the positional side.

Even if San Francisco doesn’t make further additions to their hitting corps, questions remain about their plans for the remainder of the offseason. Reporting has previously indicated that the club plans to enter 2025 with a lower payroll than 2024, and RosterResource indicates that signing Adames has left the club with a projected payroll of $180MM for 2025. That’s $26MM below their final estimate for the 2024 season, which would be consistent with a reduction in payroll if the club didn’t make additional moves. The Giants have also featured prominently in the rumor mill for starting pitching this winter, however, and were connected to top free agent starter Corbin Burnes just last week.

Signing Burnes in addition to Adames would surely push their payroll to or even beyond 2024 levels, which would suggest either a reversal regarding their payroll plans or an intention to cut salary elsewhere, perhaps by trading a player such as Yastrzemski or first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. It’s also worth noting that the Giants are forfeiting their second- and fifth-highest draft picks (as well as $1MM in international bonus pool money) in order to sign Adames. That could make the club hesitant to sign an additional qualified free agent like Burnes in order to preserve their remaining draft capital, or it’s possible that San Francisco could be emboldened to make another qualified signing because the draft penalty becomes relatively less-severe on additional signings. For example, signing Burnes would now cost the Giants only their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft after accounting for the picks forfeited to sign Adames, meaning they would actually be giving up what were actually their third- and seventh-highest selections in the draft at the start of the offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants and Adames had agreed to a seven-year, $182MM deal that included a $22MM signing bonus. Susan Slusser of the Francisco Chronicle initially reported the sides were making progress. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the no-trade clause and the absence of deferrals. Slusser also first reported the specific annual breakdown.

Max Fried Will Reportedly Choose Destination In Coming Days

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top remaining free agents but he could be coming off the board soon. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Fried is expected to pick his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays presented as the frontrunners. Rosenthal adds that right-hander Corbin Burnes is generating interest from the same three clubs, with the Giants perhaps involved there as well but not for Fried. The Rangers are mentioned as a possibility for Fried but that’s depicted as more of a long shot, with the Angels listed alongside the Giants as cubs that are not finalists for Fried.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists in the Juan Soto frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world has been that the clubs with money to spend would focus on Soto until getting clarity on that situation, with those that missed out then pivoting to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, that seems to be how things are indeed playing out.

All three clubs are looking to make a big splash, though for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a deflating five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they looked clearly outmatched. They then lost last year’s big splash when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have been dialing back payroll in recent years with lackluster results to go along with it, though now seem motivated to big big dogs again. The Jays were good during the regular season from 2020 to 2023 but suffered heartbreaking ends in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them with three quick postseason exits in the others. They followed that up with a dismal 2024 season that saw them fall to the basement of the A.L. East.

In different ways, each club is looking to both improve their respective rosters for next year while also perhaps mollifying a restive fanbase. Soto would have been one way of doing that but that’s now off the table.

Fried, 31 in January, has been a strong pitcher at the major league level for quite some time. He got brief big league looks in 2017 and 2018 but has been an established big leaguer for the past six seasons. From 2019 to the present, he has tossed 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in that time were both a bit above average while his 54.1% ground ball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez and Logan Webb had better ground ball rates for that time, among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations throughout that time.

There is a little bit of injury risk, as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in that same forearm. That’s bit concerning but Fried managed to make 29 starts this year, logging 174 1/3 innings, and there hasn’t been anything to suggest he won’t be healthy for 2025.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Fried could land a six-year deal with a $156MM guarantee, though it’s possible that Fried’s earning power has jumped since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have outearned expectations and the massive Soto deal has perhaps altered industry spending expectations more generally.

For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need pitching. Their rotation is already fairly deep with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly upgrade that group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes have been in previous rumors.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently has a core three of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. The Sox will get Lucas Giolito back at some point during the 2025 season, once he recovers from last year’s elbow surgery. They have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester but adding Fried would help the club with its aims of improving the rotation and the club more generally.

The Toronto rotation has a veteran core of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot at having a spot next year since he was so strong in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodríguez is an option for the fifth spot but he also has plenty of relief experience and could get bumped to the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be ticketed for the Triple-A rotation.

While all three clubs are looking at Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has flashed a higher ceiling than Fried but hasn’t hit that ceiling in the past two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the past two seasons, his 3.15 ERA has still been a strong mark but with a diminished strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still perceived as a strong option on account of his durability and overall strong results, with MLBTR predicted him for a $200MM guarantee over seven years.

The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes to Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said this week that Jordan Hicks will get another shot at a rotation job. Guys like Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp could battle for the fifth spot but getting Burnes would obviously be a boon to the group.

Both Burnes and Fried rejected qualifying offers and are therefore associated with penalties, which differ depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they already agreed to sign QO guy in Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that.

The Rangers’ interest in Fried was reported previously but also characterized as more of a long shot. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including a hope of re-signing Nathan Eovaldi, but they might need more clarity on their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been looking into creating their own regional sports network but haven’t quite figured that all out yet. They are reportedly hoping to stay under the CBT in 2025 and they might need to make progress on the broadcast deal before throwing big money around.

The Angels are seemingly only mentioned to touch on Fried’s potential geographic preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California, then committed to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. That club has signed many players to extensions but Fried wasn’t one of them. Rosenthal relays that some clubs feared Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast but it seems his three primary suitors are all A.L. East clubs.

Time will tell how things play out with Fried and Burnes, but it seems that the expected post-Soto domino effect might be coming to pass. As clubs pivot to plan B or plan C or plan D, guys like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heat up, which could potentially also impact guys like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and others soon as well.

Giants Intend To Keep Jordan Hicks In Rotation

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The Giants continue to view Jordan Hicks as a starting pitcher, baseball operations president Buster Posey said this afternoon (X link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The 28-year-old righty finished this past season in the bullpen.

San Francisco signed Hicks to a four-year, $44MM free agent contract last winter. They gave the hard-throwing sinkerballer a starting job. That was Hicks’ first extended rotation work. He had started eight games for the Cardinals in 2022 but moved back to the bullpen relatively early in that year. He was a full-time reliever in ’23 before getting the rotation spot with the Giants.

Hicks showed early promise as a starter. He posted a 2.70 earned run average over 12 starts through the end of May. It looked as if Hicks would be a reliever-to-rotation success story in the Seth Lugo or Michael King mold, but things went off the rails midway through the year. Hicks’ velocity trended down each month. While he averaged 95.6 MPH on his sinker in April, that was down to 93.4 MPH by July. The results sharply dropped with it, as he posted a 5.24 ERA in June and allowed nearly a run per inning in July.

San Francisco kicked Hicks to the bullpen by the end of that month. He pitched well in the more familiar one-inning role but battled shoulder inflammation late in the year. Hicks finished the season with a 4.10 ERA in a career-high 109 2/3 innings. The rate production was around average when all was said and done, but it was an up-and-down year.

Given the way Hicks wore down physically, it was fair to wonder if the Giants would move him back to relief for good. Posey also wasn’t responsible for signing him as a starter, a move that came under previous front office leader Farhan Zaidi. Nevertheless, it seems they’ll give Hicks another shot at a rotation spot.

Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison are locked into rotation roles going into camp. If Hicks takes the fourth spot, that’d leave one job up for grabs. That’ll probably be an external acquisition of some kind. The Giants have been linked to Corbin Burnes, though that reported interest predated their $182MM agreement with Willy Adames. It’s not clear if they’re still willing to play at the top of the rotation market. There are a number of more affordable possibilities in the middle tiers of free agency. Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp are the top internal candidates for the fifth starter role. They each have options and could open next season in Triple-A if San Francisco makes an addition.

In other pitching news, Posey downplayed the possibility of trading former closer Camilo Doval (relayed on X by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). The Giants have gotten interest in the one-time All-Star, who struggled to a 4.88 ERA as his command deteriorated this year. Trading Doval this winter would be selling low, though, and the Giants are already a bit thin at the back of the bullpen. Ryan Walker had a breakout season to take the ninth inning, while Taylor Rogers and Tyler Rogers are in potential leverage roles. Doval, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to make $4.6MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility, represents a volatile middle innings option.

Giants Receiving “Strong” Interest In Camilo Doval

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While the Giants aren’t actively shopping hard-throwing righty Camilo Doval this winter, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier today that the club is receiving “strong” interest in his services around the league.

Doval, 27, is an intriguing trade candidate even after an undeniably lackluster 2024 campaign. The right-hander was an All-Star in 2023 who led the National League in saves and turned in his second consecutive excellent season as the closer in San Francisco, but 2024 saw him struggle with uneven performance throughout the year. That led the Giants to option him to the minors for a brief period in August, and upon his return to the majors he was replaced by right-hander Ryan Walker in the closer role. Overall, Doval pitched to a 4.88 ERA with a 3.71 FIP this past year with a strong 28.8% strikeout rate that was overshadowed by a massive 14.4% walk rate.

Difficult as 2024 was for Doval, it’s hard to deny the right-hander’s talent. Entering this year, Doval’s career numbers were nothing short of elite. In 162 1/3 innings of work across three seasons with the Giants prior to 2024, the right-hander dominated to the tune of a 2.77 ERA with a 2.97 FIP while striking out 30.2% of opponents, walking 9.6%, and racking up 69 saves. He combines his high strikeout rates with an excellent ability to induce contact on the ground as well, as he’s posted a 55.2% grounder rate in his career that ranks fourth among all relievers with at least 200 innings over the past four seasons. Even in his down season this year, Doval generated grounders at an incredible 60% clip that was good for seventh in the sport this year among qualified relief arms.

While the wide chasm between Doval’s ERA and FIP along with an elevated .333 BABIP and a below-average 68.2% strand rate might suggest Doval was simply unlucky in 2024, there are plenty of red flags that figure to give potential suitors pause. That walk rate is surely particularly concerning to interested clubs, seeing as it was the second-highest figure among qualified relievers last year. Only southpaw Aroldis Chapman walked batters at a higher clip than Doval, and Chapman’s 37% strikeout rate last year dwarfs even Doval’s best figures in his career. As tantalizing as the upside surely is for a hard-throwing ground ball specialist like Doval who has three years of team control remaining, his concerning 2024 campaign could make rival clubs cautious about paying a premium for the righty.

If the Giants believe Doval is likely to bounce back to his previous form in 2025, it would be a bold choice for the club to move him for what would surely be a lower price than he could garner following a dominant season—or even half of one, should San Francisco be in position to sell at this summer’s trade deadline. Given Doval’s significant upside, the club might be better off exploring trades involving other players like LaMonte Wade Jr. or Mike Yastrzemski, both of whom are rumored to be available as well.

With that being said, Slusser suggests that the club figures to listen on “significant offers” that would address another area of need thanks in part to the club’s impressive stock of high leverage arms. Aside from Doval and Walker, the club also figures to employ Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers, and Erik Miller in the late innings. Jordan Hicks was also used as a late inning option down the stretch this year, but he appears likely to be ticketed for the rotation after an up-and-down season that saw him make 20 starts and enjoy some success in the role during the first half.

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