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Padres Acquire Jake Marisnick From Cubs

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The Padres have acquired outfielder Jake Marisnick from the Cubs, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  Righty Anderson Espinoza heads to the Cubs in return, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Marisnick, 30, signed a $1.5MM free agent deal with the Cubs back in February.  He’s got a 95 wRC+ in 144 plate appearances this year.  A right-handed hitter, Marisnick has a 112 wRC+ against lefties in 198 plate appearances from 2019 to present.  Marisnick is known for his center field defense, but seemed to excel more in that area earlier in his career with the Astros.  He’ll supplement a Padres outfield that includes Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, and Jurickson Profar.

The Padres were in the mix for big names at the trade deadline, as always, but they came away with Marisnick, Daniel Hudson, and Adam Frazier after falling short on Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios.

Espinoza, 23, was considered one of the 20 best prospects in baseball prior to the 2016 and ’17 seasons.  Before 2016, Baseball America graded Espinoza as a 70 prospect, writing, “Espinoza’s precocious feel for a high-quality, three-pitch mix and efficient delivery are uncommon traits for a teen, to say the least.”  He was traded from the Red Sox to the Padres in July 2016 for Drew Pomeranz, going down for Tommy John surgery a year later and then again in April 2019.  Espinoza has pitched at High-A this year, remarkably his first pro ball work since 2016 – a gap of four years and eight months.  He’s got a 5.02 ERA, 29.4 K%, and 10.3 BB% in a dozen starts so far.

Kyle Gibson Rumors: Deadline Day

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Rangers right-hander Kyle Gibson is enjoying a career year, reaching his first All-Star Game and posting a 2.87 ERA and 50.8% grounder rate over 113 innings.  There are some red flags (a 4.46 SIERA and a below-average 20.4% strikeout rate), but for a veteran arm controlled through 2022 on an $8MM salary, Gibson has been drawing a lot of attention.  Here is the latest on Gibson as the deadline approaches…

Latest Updates

Earlier Today

  • The Rays may be the leaders to acquire Gibson, The Athletic’s Levi Weaver tweets.  Tampa Bay was initially linked to Gibson a few days ago, as the team has continued to overhaul its starting and relief pitching mix.
  • The Phillies are a new team in the Gibson sweepstakes, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that Philadelphia is “making a hard push” for Gibson’s services.  The Phils are known to be looking for help at the back end of their rotation, behind their top trio of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and the currently-injured Zach Eflin.
  • The Padres were also rumored to have interest in Gibson earlier this week, and they have “maintained” that interest heading into this afternoon, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin.  Twins right-hander Kenta Maeda is another name on San Diego’s radar, but the “price tag has been too high for the Padres’ liking,” which could indicate that the club is perhaps now turning more towards Gibson or other rotation options.

Blue Jays Are Leading Suitor For Jose Berrios

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With Max Scherzer now likely headed to the Dodgers, Twins right-hander Jose Berrios becomes the clear top starter left on the trade market. The 27-year-old righty is earning $6.1MM in 2021, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration, and is in the midst of arguably his best season yet. Through 121 2/3 innings, Berrios has pitched to a 3.48 ERA with a strong 25.7 percent strikeout rate and an excellent 6.5 percent walk rate. Berrios has been as durable as they come, and while he might not be the bona fide, Cy Young-caliber ace that Scherzer is, he’s a clear option to start in a playoff game for most contenders.

It originally looked as though Berrios was a long shot to move, but the interest in him has been intense. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported yesterday that market for Berrios had exceeded the Twins’ expectations, making a deal increasingly likely. Virtually every contender or fringe contender has inquired, as you’d expect. Not all of them will remain in the mix as talks continue into the eleventh hour of deadline season, so with that in mind, we’ll run down today’s latest Berrios rumblings in this post…

  • The Blue Jays “appear” to be the leading suitor for Berrios at the moment, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North in the Twin Cities tweets that the Twins have at least four offers in hand, coming from teams on both coasts. The Padres, Wolfson adds, “will be in it until the end.” That meshes with last night’s report from AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, wherein he indicated that Berrios is now the Padres’ “primary target.”
  • The Padres, Rays and Mets are among the teams still talking to Berrios this morning, per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter link). The Twins’ asking price has been too steep for the Mets for weeks, and that appeared to still be the case last night as well. The Rays haven’t been extensively tied to Berrios for long, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman listed them as one of the most aggressive clubs on Berrios last night. It’s been a whirlwind deadline for the Rays, who’ve added Nelson Cruz but also subtracted some notable pieces in Diego Castillo and Rich Hill. Berrios would immediately become Tampa Bay’s top starter, at least as long as Tyler Glasnow is out. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that both the Rays and Blue Jays are still very much in the running.
  • The Yankees and Mariners also remain in the mix for Berrios, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who also notes that interest in Berrios has picked up even since last night (Twitter links). It’s been an active deadline in both the Bronx and Seattle, although the Yankees have yet to address their starting pitching. Seattle has added Tyler Anderson, but he’s a rental and more of a back-of-the-rotation arm. Beyond that, with myriad injuries throughout their expected starting staff, the Mariners could certainly use multiple starters.

Rockies Reportedly Have “No Plans” To Trade Jon Gray, Daniel Bard

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7:15am: The Rockies “have no plans” to trade either Gray or closer Daniel Bard today, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

As a 36-year-old closer on a fourth-place team, Bard looked like nearly as much of a slam-dunk trade candidate as Gray and Story. He’s controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration, but relievers are inherently volatile, and the Rockies can’t be reasonably expected to contend for a division title next year.

Bard has allowed three runs in his past two outings, which has bumped his ERA up a bit, but he’s still sitting at a respectable 4.32 mark with a 28.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.9 percent walk rate. Given his 97.8 mph average fastball, his ability to miss bats and his affordable $2.925MM salary, one would imagine there’d be some decent interest in Bard.

6:37am: Despite standing out as one of the most logical trade candidates on the market, Jon Gray remains in Colorado with nine hours until this afternoon’s trade deadline. There are, of course, many likely trade candidates who’ve yet to change hands, but it seems that as is the case with Trevor Story, the Rockies are at least considering hanging onto Gray.

The right-hander himself tells Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette that he and the team have had preliminary talks about an extension, adding that he hopes to stay with the Rockies. Meanwhile, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Rockies have also considered hanging onto Gray and making him a qualifying offer at season’s end.

Gray, 29, was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft and stands out as one of the best homegrown arms the Rockies have developed. He’s in the midst of a the third sub-4.00 ERA of his season, pitching to a 3.67 ERA with a 22 percent strikeout rate, a 9.7 percent walk rate and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate. Those strikeout and walk rates are a ways off from his career-best marks, and Gray’s 94.8 mph average heater is down a tick from his career-high 96.1 mph in 2017. But Gray is also limiting hard contact at the best rates of his career and has been a generally durable starter for the Rox this season. He’s playing on a $6MM salary in his final season of club control before free agency.

Given all that and the Rockies’ obvious lack of playoff chances, there ought to be many teams trying to acquire Gray — and it sounds as though the interest is there. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that the Blue Jays, Padres, Mariners, White Sox and Mets are among the clubs that have scouted and shown varying levels of interest in Gray.

With Max Scherzer likely L.A.-bound and Jose Berrios now looking increasingly likely to be dealt, the floodgates on the remaining available starting pitchers could open in the hours leading up to the deadline. Gray, Michael Pineda, Zach Davies, Kyle Gibson and Merrill Kelly all seem like strong candidates to be dealt, and the removal of the market’s top two names — if Berrios is moved early in the day — should give the teams that miss out ample time to pivot to secondary targets.

Of course, that again assumes that Gray will be moved at all. The Rockies march to the beat of their own drum, to say the least. Perhaps the notion of keeping Gray and/or Story is mere posturing in an effort to extract a larger return, but the Rockies have resisted rebuilding moves for years despite rarely contending. Manager Bud Black said earlier this month they’ve already informed top starter German Marquez that he won’t be traded, which seems to suggest they believe a rapid turnaround is possible within the next couple years. So far, the Rockies’ lone move has been to trade Mychal Givens to the Reds.

Dodgers Acquire Max Scherzer And Trea Turner From Nationals For Four Prospects

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In a stunning deadline blockbuster, the Dodgers acquired stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. In exchange, Los Angeles sent back four prospects, including two of the top young talents in baseball. Catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handers Josiah Gray and Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey are go to Washington. Scherzer waived his no-trade rights to facilitate the deal.

It had become clear in recent days the Nationals were likely to trade Scherzer, but the saga took its share of twists and turns along the way. The division-rival Padres were reportedly close to landing the three-time Cy Young award winner earlier in the afternoon. Other teams — the Dodgers among them — lurked on the periphery, though, and Los Angeles jumped in as the Nationals’ talks with San Diego never got across the finish line. In the process, the Dodgers also add one of the game’s best position players as part of a jaw-dropping package deal.

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.

It’s the continuation of what was a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. That deal proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17 and was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. Perhaps most importantly, Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.

Scherzer now joins a rotation that already includes Walker Buehler and is expected to soon welcome back Clayton Kershaw from the injured list. That trio would make for an incredible top three in any postseason series, to say nothing of the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin as options for a fourth game and/or multi-inning work out of the bullpen. (Trevor Bauer remains on administrative leave after being accused of assault; it’s not clear if/when he’ll return to the team this season).

Of course, the Dodgers still need to solidify their chances of making a playoff series to unleash that three-headed monster in October. The Dodgers are almost certain to make the playoffs in some capacity, but the Giants somewhat surprisingly remain three games up on them in the NL West race. The competition at the top of the division from San Francisco and San Diego could leave the Dodgers staring down a one-game playoff. Acquiring Scherzer gives Los Angeles another ace to potentially take the ball in a Wild Card game, but it also increases their odds of winning the division and avoiding the contest altogether.

Incredibly, Scherzer is likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ haul. While Scherzer’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner is controllable through 2022 via arbitration and every bit as productive. Turner has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the 28-year-old is hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.

Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.

A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’ll continue to do so in Los Angeles, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.

Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could use Turner in a utility-type capacity for the remainder of this season and plug him in as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere.

Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player group that was already among the league’s best. Seager has missed two months after fracturing his hand, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this weekend. Turner, who landed on the injured list this week after testing positive for COVID-19 in what’ll apparently be his final game as a National, is out for at least the next week-plus.

Unsurprisingly, adding two of the sport’s best players will cost quite a bit — both financially and from a talent perspective. Scherzer is playing out the year on a $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Scherzer’s remaining salary for 2021 (which won’t actually be paid out for seven years). Presumably, the Nationals will remain on the hook for all the deferred payments for time he’s already spent in Washington.

Turner, meanwhile, is making $13MM in his penultimate year of arbitration, which the Dodgers will also assume. Around $4.5MM of that sum remains to be paid, and he’ll surely be in line for a sizable raise this winter during his final trip through the arb process.

In addition to those salaries, the Dodgers are set to take on rather significant expenditures in luxury tax payments. The remainder of Scherzer’s contract contains a luxury tax hit in the $10MM range, while Turner’s CBT number exactly matches that of his real salary. Altogether, the Dodgers are adding something in the realm of $14.5MM to their luxury tax ledger.

That’s significant but apparently not much of a deterrent. Even before today’s acquisitions, the Dodgers had a CBT number north of $260MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That places them in the highest tax bracket, with Los Angeles subject to a 62.5% tax on any dollar spent over that mark. By assuming the remainder of Scherzer’s and Turner’s deals, the Dodgers are agreeing to pay somewhere in the range of $9MM in penalties on top of the money they’ll owe to the players.

Ownership is apparently willing to do exactly that in service of constructing a potential super-team. The defending World Series champions were arguably the most talented club in the league already, and they’ve added Scherzer, Turner and Danny Duffy to that loaded roster the day before the trade deadline.

To make that happen, Los Angeles has parted with a couple of baseball’s most talented young players. Ruiz has seemingly been on top prospect lists forever, but he’s still just 23 years old. He’s only picked up 15 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’d likely have accrued far more playing time were he playing in most other organizations.

With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers’ current and long-term catcher, there simply hasn’t been much opportunity for Ruiz. That said, the switch-hitting backstop has earned a major league look. He’s performed well at basically every minor league stop, and that’s continued in 2021.

Ruiz is hitting a massive .311/.381/.631 with 16 home runs across 231 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America just ranked him the league’s #16 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update, lauding his elite bat-to-ball skills and suggesting he’s a solid enough defender to stick behind the plate. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ruiz to settle in as an above-average or All-Star caliber catcher given his rare offensive upside for the position.

Ruiz is already on the 40-man roster and would seem to be a big league caliber option for the Nats this season. He’s in his final minor league option year, so he’ll need to break camp with the Nationals in 2022.

Gray wasn’t too far behind Ruiz on BA’s top 100 list, checking in 56th overall and second in the Los Angeles system. The young starter draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and fantastic athleticism, which allows him to throw strikes at a strong rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Gray as the sport’s #29 prospect entering the season (he’s up to 21st following other players’ graduations), calling him a likely “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak.

The 23-year-old made his major league debut last week and has pitched in a pair of big league games. Gray spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, although an injured list stint caused him to miss a fair amount of time. He tossed 15 2/3 innings of 2.87 ERA ball before his promotion, his first crack at the minors’ top level.

Neither Ruiz nor Gray will accrue enough big league time to reach a full year of service in 2021. They won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season and aren’t likely to qualify for arbitration until the 2024-25 offseason. Both players have the opportunity to be long-term stalwarts in D.C., with many potential games featuring a Gray-Ruiz battery over the coming years. Gray still has all three options remaining.

Carrillo will also step directly onto Washington’s 40-man roster. His contract was selected last winter to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but Carrillo hasn’t yet appeared in the majors. He’s spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa, tossing 59 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. The 22-year-old has struck out a strong 26.2% of batters faced but walked an alarming 10.9% of opponents.

Both Baseball America and FanGraphs suggest that lack of control is likely to eventually push Carrillo to the bullpen, but his mid-90’s sinker and power breaking ball could suit him quite well in short stints. Longenhagen slots Carrillo tenth in the Nationals system assuming the trade is completed.

Casey will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The former 20th-round pick (2017) isn’t seen as a particularly strong prospect, but he’s having a quality season in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment. The 25-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.462 with 11 home runs across 334 plate appearances with Tulsa. Casey has seen action at all three outfield positions.

The blockbuster completely changes the National League outlook. The Dodgers add two of the game’s best players to a tight divisional race, seemingly acquiring Scherzer out of the Padres grasp. With a few high-profile targets (José Berríos, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant chief among them) still having a chance to wind up on the move, the Dodgers’ in-state division rivals figure to be active themselves as the deadline approaches.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Nationals and Dodgers were in serious discussions about a deal involving Scherzer and Turner. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported Ruiz’s and Casey’s involvement in the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Gray’s inclusion, while Jim Bowden of the Athletic was first to identify Carrillo as part of the deal. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report Scherzer’s willingness to waive his no-trade rights, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that the Dodgers would assume Scherzer’s and Turner’s remaining 2021 financial obligations.

Jose Berrios Reportedly “Primary Target” For Padres

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With the Padres having narrowly missed out in their efforts to land Max Scherzer, San Diego is turning their attention to the next-best starting pitcher believed to be on the trade market. Twins righty José Berríos is a “primary target” for the Friars in the coming hours, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com.

It’s not especially surprising to hear the Padres’ front office is pivoting back to Berríos. San Diego was reportedly focused on Berríos throughout much of the week. That looked to be off the table when the Padres were seemingly on the verge of landing Scherzer. With the latter now likely headed to the division-rival Dodgers, a push for Berríos is apparently back on the docket.

Berríos isn’t the Padres’ only target, though, as Cassavell adds that San Diego could make multiple additions to the starting staff (with or without Berríos included). San Diego did already bolster the bullpen by acquiring Daniel Hudson in a late night deal with the Nationals. It seems the rotation is now the priority, with Cassavell noting that Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are the only locks to pitch in a playoff rotation — should the Padres advance to an NLDS. Berríos, who has a 3.48 ERA/3.74 SIERA over 121 2/3 innings this season, would be an impactful enough arm to join Darvish and Musgrove in that group.

Of course, there’s no shortage of interest in Berríos. The right-hander’s controllable via arbitration through 2022 and making an affordable $6.1MM this season (about $2.1MM of which is still owed). Jon Heyman of MLB Network reiterates that the Blue Jays have “big interest” in Berríos and adds that the Rays and Red Sox are still in the mix. Dan Hayes of the Athletic suggests the Twins have interest in some of the Jays top position player prospects (Austin Martin, Orelvis Martinez and Jordan Groshans among them). The Mariners have also been linked to Berríos, as have the Mets. Recent indications are that New York isn’t likely to land him, though, with the Mets deterred by the Twins’ lofty asking price.

Padres Acquire Daniel Hudson From Nationals

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The Padres have acquired one of the top relievers on the trade market. San Diego announced a deal with the Nationals to add Daniel Hudson to the late-inning mix. Two prospects — pitcher Mason Thompson and infielder Jordy Barley — are expected to head to Washington in return.

Hudson becomes the latest player out the door as part of the Nationals broader sell-off. Washington is finalizing a deal to send Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers and has already announced agreements to move Brad Hand and Kyle Schwarber. Once GM Mike Rizzo and his staff embarked on the teardown, a Hudson deal became increasingly likely given his impending free agency.

The right-hander has long been a productive reliever, but he’s taken his game to a new level this year. The 34-year-old has a career-low 2.20 ERA across 32 2/3 innings, striking out an elite 37.8% of opposing hitters against a tidy 5.5% walk rate. There’s little question he’s capable of stepping into high-leverage innings for the Padres, who are amidst a three-way battle in the NL West. That won’t be the case immediately, though, as Hudson landed on the COVID-19 injured list this morning as the virus spread throughout Washington’s clubhouse.

Hudson is playing out the season on a $6MM contract, a bit more than $2MM of which is still owed. His two-year, $11MM deal comes with a $5.5MM luxury tax hit, which prorates to about $1.9MM. The Padres are reportedly a bit over the $210MM threshold, but indications are that ownership is willing to pay some extra expenditures. The Friars’ reported talks with the Nationals about Scherzer this afternoon would’ve likely pushed San Diego well above that line had they resulted in a deal, for instance. Of course, there’s also the possibility that Washington retains some salary.

In order to add Hudson for the stretch run, San Diego parts with Thompson, a 2016 third-round draftee. The righty has made his first four big league appearances this season but spent the bulk of the year with Triple-A El Paso. A pure reliever, Thompson has tossed 26 2/3 innings over 23 appearances, working to a 5.74 ERA with slightly lower than average strikeout and walk rates (21.8% and 7.3%, respectively) in that hitter-friendly environment. He’s already on the 40-man roster and has a pair of minor league option years remaining beyond the current season.

Barley has been in the Padres organization since signing as a member of San Diego’s massive 2016-17 international class. At one point, the speedster was a fairly well-regarded prospect, but he’s struggled to hit in the low minors. Barley has posted higher than average strikeout rates throughout his professional career, and that’s continued this season. The 21-year-old is hitting .240/.333/.388 with a 29.4% strikeout percentage in Low-A. Entering the season, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Barley as the #28 talent in the Padres system.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Padres and Nationals were in discussions on a Hudson deal. Jim Bowden of the Athletic confirmed the trade had been agreed upon. Dennis Lin of the Athletic was first to report Thompson’s inclusion. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to report a second prospect was involved, with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post specifying Barley’s inclusion.

Padres Close To Acquiring Max Scherzer, But Other Teams Still In The Mix

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6:19 pm: The Angels are also still in the mix for Scherzer, according to Heyman.

4:40 pm: Other teams are indeed still trying to top the Padres’ offer for Scherzer, says Rosenthal. While Washington and San Diego have “essentially” agreed on the framework of a trade, the various obstacles involved with Scherzer’s situation (particularly his no-trade rights) continue to loom over the discussions.

3:58 pm: While the Padres are heavily involved in the market for Scherzer, Heyman reiterates that other clubs (perhaps including the Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox) still believe they have a chance to land the ace.

3:24 pm: The teams have agreed on the players involved, pending medical reviews, according to Jim Bowden of the Athletic. Scherzer still needs to waive his no-trade rights, although recent reports suggested he’d be willing to do so to move to one of the NL West contenders.

3:12 pm: The Padres are nearing a deal to acquire Max Scherzer, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Jon Morosi of MLB.com had reported the Friars’ efforts to land Scherzer were “intensifying” moments before Rosenthal. The deal is not yet complete, cautions Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

Assuming the deal eventually crosses the finish line, it’ll be the latest in a line of impact starting pitching acquisitions for San Diego that dates back to last summer. Within the past twelve months, the Padres have acquired Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. They’re now on the verge of landing perhaps their most notable pitcher of all, a three-time Cy Young award winner who started for the National League in this year’s All-Star game.

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.

It’s the continuation of what has been a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. It proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17. He was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. And Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.

With Scherzer scheduled to reach free agency again this offseason, the Washington front office was faced with a decision — hold onto Scherzer in hopes of making a playoff push, or move him to a contender for an influx of young talent? For a while, it seemed as though the Nats would play well enough that keeping Scherzer was the obvious choice. They’ve struggled coming out of the All-Star Break, though, with a sweep at the hands of the Orioles last weekend seemingly sealing the team’s fate as sellers.

Washington sits at 47-54, fourth place in the National League East and seven games back of the division-leading Mets. They entered play today with just a 1.1% chance of reaching the postseason, in the estimation of FanGraphs. Nationals brass hasn’t traditionally been keen on trading away star players. Still, the deficit became too much to reasonably expect to overcome, particularly with Stephen Strasburg officially done for the season and star shortstop Trea Turner now out for the next-week plus after testing positive for COVID-19.

Successful and beloved as Scherzer has been in Washington, it became apparent in recent days that a trade would be in the cards. Such a move isn’t without complications though, most notably Scherzer’s full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player (one with ten years of major league service, the past five of which have come with the same team).

Scott Boras, Scherzer’s agent, suggested earlier in the summer that the pitcher could require some form of contractual inducement (perhaps even an extension) to approve any deal. He later walked back those comments, though, and recent reports suggested Scherzer was willing to approve a move to certain destinations — particularly those on the West Coast. Obviously, the Padres would fit that bill, but the Nationals were still motivated to work out a deal well in advance of tomorrow’s 4:00 pm EST deadline in order to sort that situation out.

There’s also the matter of finances to consider. Scherzer’s playing out the year on a significant $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. It’s not precisely clear how the Nationals and Padres will divide those payments (assuming the trade is completed), although the majority of those obligations will certainly be paid by the Nationals.

The Padres’ series of big-ticket trade and free agent acquisitions in recent years has pushed their payroll to unprecedented heights for the organization. The Friars are reportedly a little above the $210MM luxury tax threshold. Scherzer’s prorated luxury tax hit for the remainder of the season is right around $10MM. If the Friars pick up the remainder of his contractual obligations, they’ll certainly wind up above the luxury threshold, although previous reports suggested ownership was willing to greenlight such a move to accommodate an impactful summer acquisition.

San Diego would be a first-time payor of the competitive balance tax. That’d subject the franchise to a 20% tax on any overage between $210MM and $230MM (an approximate $2MM penalty if they assume Scherzer’s remaining deal). Should the Friars push their luxury number above $230MM, they’d pay a 32% tax on expenditures between that number and $250MM.

Either way, the overage penalties are an exceedingly small price to pay for a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber. The Padres entered play today in third place in the NL West, 5.5 games back of the Giants. They’re 3.5 behind the Dodgers for the top Wild Card spot but five games clear of the Reds for the NL’s final postseason spot. The Friars seem likely to make the playoffs in some capacity. If acquired, Scherzer would be an option to start a potential Wild Card game.

If San Diego gets into an NLDS, a playoff rotation involving Scherzer, Darvish, and Musgrove would be capable of shutting down the best opposing lineups. That’s without even accounting for Snell, Dinelson Lamet, Ryan Weathers or Chris Paddack, who could be options to start a fourth game and/or work multiple innings of relief.

The Padres’ acquisition of Scherzer (if completed) would also have huge implications on the trade market for other top starting pitchers — most notably Minnesota’s José Berríos. San Diego was reportedly heavily involved in the Berríos market in recent days. A Scherzer pickup would seemingly take them out of that mix, but the other two NL West contenders are among the teams known to be interested in the Twins’ righty.

The Dodgers and Giants probably won’t feel obligated to up their offers on Berríos specifically because the Padres are on the verge of a Scherzer deal. Front offices don’t tend to be that reactionary to division rivals’ moves in this day and age. But both those teams were also speculated as potential fits for Scherzer, and his landing elsewhere could leave Berríos as the only true top-of-the-rotation arm still available in the next 24 hours.

Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Active Teams In Jose Berrios Market

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5:44 pm: The Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox are the most active teams in the Berrios market, reports Heyman, who adds that the division’s other contender, the Yankees, have also checked in. It doesn’t seem likely that the Mets — who have long been interested in Berrios but deterred by the Twins’ asking price — will wind up landing him. The Mets continue to be put off by Minnesota’s demand, hears Andy Martino of SNY, and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com suggests that’s also the case in discussions between the two clubs regarding Pineda.

2:39pm: The Twins have numerous offers in hand for Berrios, per Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic, who add that the market has exceeded the Twins’ initial expectations (Twitter link). A trade is seen as increasingly likely. TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that the Blue Jays are “definitely” in the mix for Berrios.

2:34pm: The Twins are getting “bombarded” with offers for Berrios, Nightengale tweets, adding that the Padres in particular are being aggressive in their efforts.

1:58pm: Some teams who’ve spoken to the Twins about Berrios get the sense that they’re more willing to move him now than they were earlier in the summer, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman lists the Dodgers as a team with interest, and, like myriad other recent reports, also indicates the Padres have interest. Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently wrote that the Padres had interest in Berrios, Michael Pineda and Kenta Maeda. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that San Diego is more focused on Berrios than on Max Scherzer.

8:11am: The Twins have already traded away Nelson Cruz, and with an off-day Thursday, today’s focus figures to be entirely on their deadline efforts to reload the club for 2022 and beyond. Jose Berrios is Minnesota’s most coveted trade candidate, and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that offers for Berrios “have spiked” with the trade deadline now less than 48 hours away.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Mariners have been pursuing a Berrios acquisition this week, with the Twins focusing on one of Seattle’s top pitching prospects (Emerson Hancock or George Kirby) as part of a multi-player return. The two sides aren’t close to a deal, Morosi adds. Both Hancock (2020) and Kirby (2019) were first-round picks in recent Mariners drafts and have pitched at Class-A Advanced this year. Both players have missed time with shoulder fatigue this year, but Hancock returned this week and Kirby is expected back within the next couple of weeks, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweeted a couple days ago.

The Mets, too, have been linked to Berrios throughout the month of July, but all indications to this point have been that they consider the asking price too steep. Indeed, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Mets are “very” interested but also had “sticker shock” when the Twins initially asked for a combination of two top-100 prospects and a young big leaguer. Beyond that, the Mets’ lack of premium pitching prospects may be a problem. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets would perhaps need to involve a third team if they hoped to actually land Berrios. They’ve recently been more connected to rental pitchers.

Of course, virtually every contender or pseudo-contender has checked in with the Twins on Berrios’ asking price, given his affordable $6.1MM salary for the 2021 season as well as his remaining year of arbitration eligibility before free agency. The 27-year-old Berrios is enjoying the best season of an already impressive career, having pitched to a 3.48 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (25.7) and ground-ball percentage (43.6). His 6.5 percent walk rate is the second-lowest of his career, and the durable right-hander’s current pace would put him in line to land somewhere in the 195 to 200 range in terms of total innings pitched.

Red Sox Among Teams In Mix For Max Scherzer

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3:10 pm: While reports this morning suggested the Padres were more focused on Berrios, the Friars have “intensified” their efforts to land the Nationals ace this afternoon, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).

11:44am: The Red Sox are indeed in the mix for Scherzer, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that Scherzer is open to a trade to Boston. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, meanwhile, hears that Scherzer would not approve a trade to the Astros or Phillies.

9:54am: Max Scherzer remains the most intriguing trade candidate on the market, and interested parties will get one more look at him before deciding on an asking price. Nats skipper Dave Martinez announced to reporters Thursday morning that Scherzer will start Game 1 of today’s doubleheader against the Phillies (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). It seems likely this will be Scherzer’s final start with the Nationals, and it’ll serve as an audition of sorts to prove that his triceps is at full strength; Scherzer was scratched from his Saturday start due to minor triceps discomfort, but an MRI has since come back clean.

With a reported preference to land with one of the three NL West contenders and full no-trade rights to help guide him to a destination he likes, it feels like a matter of when he’s traded rather than one of if. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets that there’s a feeling throughout the organization that a trade will come together today.

That’s sensible, as the Nats want to leave as much time as possible post-agreement to sort out the finer details of Scherzer waiving his no-trade rights. Adjustments to his contract’s salary deferrals or smaller details along those lines could be arranged as compensation for Scherzer waiving his 10-and-5 no-trade protection. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Covid outbreak with which the Nationals are currently dealing may have preoccupied some key Nats personnel and slowed the pace of talks, as some expected them to have a deal in place by last night.

The acquisition price for premium rentals (e.g. Nelson Cruz, Starling Marte) has been viewed as steep thus far, and Rosenthal unsurprisingly suggests that Washington has a high price on Scherzer. We’ve yet to see one of the premium rental pitchers change hands, however — perhaps because other clubs want to wait until Scherzer is off the board before pushing their own rental starters.

While the prevailing wisdom at the moment is that one of the Giants, Padres or Dodgers are the favorites to land Scherzer, there are at least a couple other possibilities of note. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden writes that Red Sox ownership has pushed the front office to pursue a deal, for instance. The Sox have already been linked to Scherzer, but they’d be something of a surprise fit, given ownership’s longstanding reluctance to cross the luxury tax threshold. Scherzer would have to be viewed as a player worth making that exception, or the Red Sox would likely have to bolster their prospect package in order to convince the Nationals to pay down the remaining salary on Scherzer’s contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres are more focused on Minnesota’s Jose Berrios than they are on Scherzer at the moment.

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