Padres “Prefer” To Stay Under Luxury Tax In 2024, Could Reduce Payroll Below $200MM
The Padres have long been expected to pare down payroll significantly this offseason, with early signals indicating a target payroll of no more than $200MM for the 2024 season as they look to get back into compliance with the league’s debt service rules. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the club may plan to cut payroll even more drastically, suggesting that the club’s final payroll next season could come in “more than a little lower” than that aforementioned $200MM figure as club officials reportedly “prefer” to stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2024. Importantly, Lin notes that the club would be willing to go “slightly” over the luxury tax if the right opportunity were to present itself later this winter, though it’s unclear what sort of opportunity would be necessary to convince San Diego to push their payroll over the threshold.
While RosterResource projects the Padres for a payroll of just over $152MM as things stand, it projects a significantly larger $205MM payroll for luxury tax purposes. That would leave the club with just under $32MM of budget space remaining for luxury tax purposes if they intend to remain below the first luxury tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM in 2024. That roughly $30MM of wiggle room for luxury tax purposes tracks with Lin’s suggestion that a payroll of around $180MM could allow the Padres to duck below the threshold next year.
Lin goes on to report that the club’s pursuit of outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who signed with the Giants earlier this week on a six-year, $113MM deal, was impacted by the club’s budget constraints. While Lin notes that San Diego’s offer to Lee was reportedly considered “competitive” but nonetheless was not especially close to the figure offered by San Francisco. Lee’s contract with the Giants sports an average annual value of roughly $18.8MM, meaning landing the outfielder would have required more the remaining space the Padres have available to them below the luxury tax threshold.
As Lin notes, the Padres themselves demonstrated as recently as last offseason that there are ways to creatively structure a deal to deflate its AAV. Right-handers Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez, for example, commanded salaries of $7.5MM and $10MM respectively in 2023 despite carrying AAVs of just $6.5MM and $8.7MM for luxury tax purposes thanks to the complex structures of their contracts. It’s possible that similar deals could allow the Padres additional room to maneuver this offseason as they look to rebuild their starting outfield after shipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to New York as well as a pitching staff that lost Wacha, Martinez, Seth Lugo, Blake Snell, and Josh Hader to free agency last month.
It’s possible some of the club’s holes can be filled internally, with Lin noting that the Padres see the likes of Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee and Robby Snelling, among others, as prospects who could impact the big league club in 2024. Even in San Diego manages to successfully embrace a youth movement, however, it’s hard to imagine the club being able to fill two outfield spots, one rotation spot, and restock the bullpen without making several external additions.
With so many holes on the roster and relatively little wiggle room in the club’s budget for 2024, Lin notes that infielders Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim are both potential trade candidates for the Padres. Kim would surely be an attractive trade candidate if available on the heels of a strong season that saw him slash .260/.351/.398 while playing superb defense all around the infield, and a deal would allow the Padres to shed his $8MM salary in 2024 while potentially bringing back major league ready talent in return.
Cronenworth, on the other hand, would be far more difficult to deal, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored earlier this week. The 29-year-old is coming off the worst season of his career in 2023 and is owed a whopping $80MM over the next seven seasons, making him a less-than-palatable trade target for the majority of clubs. While Cronenworth’s salary is just over $7MM for the 2024 campaign, his contract’s AAV of around $11.5MM counts as a more significant hit against the luxury tax. While Cronenworth is far from the only player locked up long-term the Padres could consider trying to move, others would like present even more significant obstacles.
Right-handers Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove figure to anchor the club’s rotation next season, and dealing either veteran arm would be counterproductive for a club hoping to bolster its rotation depth. It’s a similar story for Robert Suarez in the bullpen. Meanwhile, the likes of Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are due hundreds of millions through at least the 2033 season, making them all far more complicated to move for fair value than Soto, who will be a free agent next season, was. Making a trade for any of the aforementioned names even more complicated is that each player is coming off a season that either saw them produce below their recent career levels, struggle with injury, or both. With plenty of holes to fill and few realistic options for shedding salary available, the Padres face a major uphill battle as they look to improve upon their 82-80 season in 2023 that saw them just miss out on playoff contention.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/16/23
Catching up on some minor league moves from around baseball…
- The Padres signed infielder Nate Mondou to a minor league deal last week, according to Mondou’s MLB.com profile page. The 28-year-old’s big league resume consists of a single game and three plate appearances with the Athletics in 2022, and the rest of his seven-year pro career has been spent in the minors. Mondou has hit .278/.375/.433 over 1275 PA at the Triple-A level with the top affiliates of the A’s and White Sox, while playing mostly second base, a good deal of time at both corner infield spots, and a handful of games as a shortstop and left fielder.
- The Giants re-signed catcher Jakson Reetz to a minor league contract last week, as per Reetz’s MLB.com profile page. A third-round pick for the Nationals in the 2014 draft, Reetz made his Major League debut by appearing in two games for Washington in 2021, and he has since been playing in the minors with the Brewers, Royals, and Giants. Reetz hit .243/.342/.500 with 17 home runs over 322 combined PA with the Giants’ and Royals’ Triple-A clubs in 2023, and while it wasn’t enough to get him another look in the majors, the Giants saw enough to bring him back into the fold as a depth option.
Padres, Tommy Nance Agree To Minor League Deal
The Padres have agreed to a minor league contract with reliever Tommy Nance, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. The right-hander had reached minor league free agency after being outrighted by the Marlins at the beginning of the offseason.
Nance, 32, lost the bulk of the 2023 season to shoulder and oblique injuries. He pitched 17 innings over four minor league levels but didn’t make an MLB appearance for the Fish this year. Nance had seen a fair amount of action out of the Miami relief corps the previous season. He logged 43 2/3 innings across 35 appearances in 2022, posting a 4.33 ERA while striking out an impressive 29.1% of batters faced.
A Long Beach native and Santa Clara product, Nance has 72 1/3 MLB innings under his belt. He debuted with the Cubs in 2021 five years after going undrafted. The Marlins claimed him off waivers in Spring Training the following season. He owns a 5.47 ERA at the highest level, although he’s shown the potential to pick up a fair amount of whiffs and ground balls.
San Diego has a handful of relief jobs up for grabs after each of Josh Hader, Nick Martinez and Luis García reached free agency. The Padres are likely to add one or two relievers who’ll be locked into the season-opening mix, but they’ll also take a few fliers of this nature to bring in non-roster competition.
Braves Plan To Trade Matt Carpenter
The Braves are planning to trade DH Matt Carpenter, report David O’Brien and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). Atlanta acquired the left-handed hitter this evening in a salary-motivated swap with the Padres.
San Diego’s primary goal was offloading a portion of Carpenter’s $5.5MM salary. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reported that the Padres were kicking in $1.5MM to facilitate the trade. The Braves took on $4MM in salary and luxury tax obligations. The Friars saved $4MM in cash and $4.5MM against the competitive balance tax.
Carpenter’s CBT number was marginally higher for the Padres than it is for Atlanta. His two-year, $12MM deal with San Diego was front loaded, as he collected $6.5MM this year. That came with a $6MM tax hit as the contract’s average annual value, but a traded player’s CBT calculation for an acquiring team is recalculated based on how much they’re still owed at the time of the trade — in this case, $5.5MM for one year.
The point of the trade for Atlanta was to essentially “purchase” the rights to hard-throwing depth reliever Ray Kerr, whom San Diego included in the deal. As a second-year luxury tax payor in the second tier of penalization, the Braves are paying a 42% tax on the $4MM of Carpenter’s salary they assumed. The trade will cost them around $5.68MM altogether. Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number sits around $267MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The third tier of penalization kicks in at $277MM.
Atlanta’s front office has somewhat curiously taken on a handful of underwater contracts as a means of adding talent at the bottom half of the roster. They almost immediately traded Marco Gonzales and Evan White after bringing them in alongside Jarred Kelenic. Catcher Max Stassi, whose contract was included in the David Fletcher trade, was promptly flipped to the White Sox. Carpenter appears next in line.
As was the case with Gonzales and Stassi, the Braves might have to pay Carpenter’s salary all the way or near the league minimum to find a taker. The veteran is coming off a .176/.322/.319 showing.
Braves Acquire Matt Carpenter, Ray Kerr From Padres
7:12pm: San Diego is including $1.5MM in cash, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (on X).
6:48pm: The Padres and Braves have agreed to a trade, per announcements from both clubs. Designated hitter Matt Carpenter, left-hander Ray Kerr and cash considerations are heading to Atlanta in exchange for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell.
Carpenter, 38, had a multi-year run of success with the Cardinals but his production dipped towards the end of the previous decade, to the point where he hit just .169/.305/.275 in 2021. He made a concerted effort to revamp his swing before 2022 and it seemed to work. He hit an astounding .305/.412/.727 for the Yankees in 2022, but in just 47 games before he fouled a ball off his foot and had his season ended by a fracture.
The Padres decided to bank on that bounceback, signing him to a two-year deal going into 2023. That guaranteed $12MM and allowed him to opt out after the first season. He couldn’t keep that magic run with the Yankees going, as his time as a Padre resulted in a line of just .176/.322/.319. As a player who saw all of his time at either designated hitter or first base, the complete lack of offensive productivity put Carpenter on the fringe of the roster.
San Diego kept him on the roster all season. Carpenter made the easy decision to exercise his $5.5MM player option. That’s not an outrageous sum but clearly beyond what San Diego wanted to devote to a player on the bubble. The Friars have spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. It’s unclear how much of the Carpenter deal for which the Padres remain responsible after accounting for the cash considerations, but they’ll offload some portion of the money in exchange for sending Kerr to Atlanta.
A 29-year-old reliever, Kerr was acquired from Seattle as part of the Adam Frazier deal over the 2021-22 offseason. The 6’3″ southpaw has pitched in 29 MLB games over the past two seasons, most of which came this year. Kerr owns a 5.06 ERA in 32 innings, but he has shown a promising arsenal. He has punched out an above-average 28.1% of batters faced at the highest level. Kerr fanned 29% of opponents while pitching to a stellar 2.25 ERA in 36 Triple-A frames last season.
Kerr has atypical velocity for a left-hander. He averaged 96 MPH on his heater and a solid 82.5 MPH on a curveball in his MLB time this year. That resulted in an excellent 14.7% swinging strike percentage. He has never consistently harnessed that power stuff, however. Kerr walked nearly 10% of opponents in the majors and over 11% of batters faced in Triple-A. Over parts of six minor league seasons, he owns an 11.6% walk percentage.
With less than one year of major league service, Kerr is at least two years away from arbitration. He still has a minor league option remaining, so the Braves can keep him at Triple-A Gwinnett for another season. Kerr slots in behind A.J. Minter, recent trade pickup Aaron Bummer, Tyler Matzek and Dylan Lee on the lefty relief depth chart.
Atlanta has shown a willingness to take on part or all of other teams’ undesirable contracts to acquire players of interest. They took on money in the Marco Gonzales and Evan White deals to bring in Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. They subsequently offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates and flipped White to the Angels as part of a deal that brought in David Fletcher and the Max Stassi contract, which they subsequently paid down to deal the catcher to the White Sox.
It’s fair to wonder if they’ll look to move Carpenter as well. For now, he projects as a left-handed bench bat. Atlanta is in the the second tier of luxury penalization and will be second-time payors next year. They’ll therefore pay a 42% tax on whatever portion of the Carpenter contract they’re assuming.
San Diego also adds the 26-year-old Campbell. He was a 23rd round pick in 2019 out of Louisville. A left-handed hitter, Campbell posted a modest .254/.307/.404 slash in 300 plate appearances as a 25-year-old in Double-A. He can play all three outfield spots but spent more time in a corner this year. After going unselected in the Rule 5 draft, he’s likely to start the season in Triple-A.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Challenge Of Trading Jake Cronenworth
After the Scott Barlow and Juan Soto/Trent Grisham trades, Roster Resource projects the Padres payroll for the 2024 season in the $154MM range. They’re at roughly $209MM in luxury tax commitments, about $28MM shy of next year’s lowest threshold.
San Diego now has some space to add, but their series of free agent losses and trade departures have created a number of holes. With a need for at least one starting pitcher, a back-end reliever and likely multiple outfielders, the front office could continue looking for ways to create spending room. One path the front office is seemingly pursuing: moving some of the money owed to Jake Cronenworth.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last week that Cronenworth had emerged as a trade candidate. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote over the weekend the Padres were open to discussions on the fifth-year infielder. That’s to be expected, as Cronenworth is coming off the worst season of his career.
That’s not ideal for a player entering the first season of a seven-year contract. Last spring, San Diego signed Cronenworth to an $80MM extension covering the 2024-30 campaigns. It was an odd decision at the time, as the Padres already had arbitration control through his age-32 season. It looks worse in hindsight after his 2023 performance.
Cronenworth hit .229/.312/.378 with 10 home runs through 522 plate appearances. He had the lowest mark of his career in all three slash stats. That’d be more tolerable at his natural second base position, but the Friars also kicked him primarily to first base after signing Xander Bogaerts to keep Ha-Seong Kim at the keystone. Cronenworth’s hit-over-power approach isn’t a great fit at first base, where most teams receive far more offensive productivity. Among 25 primary first baseman to reach 500 plate appearances, Cronenworth ranked 23rd in both on-base percentage and slugging. His season finished in late August when he fractured his right wrist.
The Padres certainly expect better than that in 2024. Going into last season, the Michigan product had a much superior .256/.338/.431 career batting line. Yet he has also trended downwards offensively in each season since his rookie year. With Kim and Bogaerts likely to again occupy the middle infield, Cronenworth isn’t a great fit for the San Diego roster. Offloading a portion of his contract and bringing in a more traditional slugging first baseman could mollify some of their problems getting production from the bottom half of the lineup.
San Diego wouldn’t find a taker for the entire contract. Aside from a $2MM signing bonus, Cronenworth’s extension hasn’t yet kicked in. Were he a free agent this offseason, he would not receive seven years or $78MM.
For reference, Jeimer Candelario was on the open market this winter. He’s a few weeks older than Cronenworth, has nearly identical offensive production over the past four seasons, and is coming off a much better ’23 campaign (.251/.336/.471 with 22 homers). Candelario signed a three-year pact that guaranteed $45MM. Even with Cronenworth having a slight defensive edge based on his ability to play an above-average second base, he likely wouldn’t have beaten Candelario money.
The Padres owe Cronenworth a $7MM salary for next season, followed by $11MM in 2025. He’s due $12MM annually between 2026-30, covering his age 32-36 campaigns. If the Friars were simply prioritizing shedding next year’s money, they’d likely find a trade partner. Paying $7MM for Cronenworth in ’24 is good value, particularly if a team can move him back to second base. The Padres would have to agree to kicking in some money beyond the next season or two in order to reduce the longer-term downside for an acquiring team.
Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson are the top open market options. Neither is demonstrably better than Cronenworth. There are other trade possibilities (e.g. Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India) but teams looking for second base help could have to turn to the trade market.
The Royals project to turn the position back to Michael Massey, who hit .229/.274/.381 a season ago. K.C. has a decent amount of long-term payroll room and generally prefers hit-over-power, athletic players who align with their spacious home park. The Red Sox had a revolving door at second base last season, receiving a .240/.286/.376 line overall. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged last week the Sox were likely to trade for a second baseman, although he called a right-handed hitter an ideal pickup.
Seattle could look to improve upon Josh Rojas. Cronenworth would align with their goal of adding more contact if they view him as reasonable buy-low target. The Angels and Blue Jays may add an infielder, although their respective in-house options might be productive enough they don’t see Cronenworth as a clear upgrade.
Teams like the Brewers (Brice Turang), Rockies (Brendan Rodgers) and Nationals (Luis García) have young players they’ll probably try to give one more opportunity. The White Sox have targeted stopgap types like Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong. The Pirates seem unlikely to take on notable money on a seven-year commitment. The Tigers have short-term uncertainty at second base but presumably won’t want to block prospects like Colt Keith and Jace Jung.
In the absence of many clear trade partners, the Padres front office will have to determine how motivated they are to shed a portion of the contract. While selling low on Cronenworth less than 12 months after extending him isn’t ideal, the Soto trade made clear they’re open to ways to reshape the roster as they try to remain competitive while cutting spending.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
MLBTR Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The various implications of Shohei Ohtani signing with the Dodgers and Tim’s thoughts on the CBT (1:10)
- The media circus around Ohtani… (9:35)
- ..including this piece by Bob Nightengale of USA Today (11:20)
- Is this deal bad for baseball? (16:55)
- The Yankees acquire Juan Soto from the Padres in a seven-player deal (22:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary – listen here
- Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions – listen here
- Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
NL West Notes: Lee, Padres, Soto, Giants, Rockies
The Padres’ interest in Jung Hoo Lee is well known, though the large amount of interest in Lee’s services threatens to push him out of San Diego’s price range, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes. MLBTR projected five years and $50MM for Lee in his first Major League contract as he made the jump from the KBO League, yet Lin hears that the the 25-year-old outfielder could land closer to $90MM, without counting the posting fee a team would additionally owe to the Kiwoom Heroes, Lee’s KBO League club.
Finances have been an big subplot of the Padres’ offseason, as the team’s debt-driven need to reduce payroll has already resulted in Juan Soto‘s trade to the Yankees, as well as the seeming unlikelihood of a reunion with such high-profile free agents as Blake Snell, Josh Hader, or Seth Lugo (and Nick Martinez has already signed with the Reds). San Diego has roughly $155.7MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, yet with several roster holes to fill and a rough payroll limit of around $200MM, spending more than expected on Lee will make it more difficult for the Padres to properly address every need. Lee’s agent Scott Boras isn’t in the habit of giving pseudo-hometown discounts, even if San Diego holds particular appeal to Lee since he is best friends with Ha-Seong Kim.
More from around the NL West…
- Returning to the Soto trade talks, San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said the Soto field was comprised of 10 teams with three finalists. The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea reports that the Giants were one of the initial 10, though they didn’t make the cut for two central reasons — the Padres preferred the Yankees’ pitching-heavy trade package, and the Padres weren’t keen on moving Soto to a division rival. San Francisco does have a solid batch of young pitching depth of its own, and those arms have naturally drawn interest from other teams given the league-wide demand for pitching. This would seemingly help the Giants’ chances of landing some high-end hitting talent, depending on how much of that depth San Francisco is willing to surrender.
- The Rockies have often been accused of lagging behind other teams in the analytics department, though MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes that Colorado is preparing to open a performance lab at its Spring Training facilities. This is the latest step for a research and development department that has 11 staffers and planning to add more, as most other clubs have considerably more employees in similar departments around the league. “It’s kind of like college football used to be, where there was an arms race for facilities,” Rockies R&D director Brian Jones said. “This is similar. It’s an arms race for talented people — research and development, analysts, biomechanists — every kind of advantage.”
Roki Sasaki Asks To Be Posted For MLB Teams, Chiba Lotte Marines Likely To Deny Request
Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki has asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter, according to Sponichi Annex (Japanese language link from Yahoo Japan). Nippon Professional Baseball teams have until December 15 to post players for possible moves to Major League Baseball in advance of the 2024 season, and this brief timeline alone makes it highly unlikely that the Marines will grant Sasaki’s request.
In the broader picture, it is quite rare for Japanese players to ask to be posted so early in their careers, as the 22-year-old Sasaki has only played three seasons in NPB. As per MLB’s posting rules, players must be at least 25 years and have at least six pro seasons under their belt in order to receive anything more than a minor league contract. Big league clubs could also only pay such players money from their international bonus pools, and with this year’s international signing window yet to open on January 15, teams have long since committed the bulk of their pool money to prospects. Shohei Ohtani faced these restrictions when he came to the majors at age 23, and thus received only a minors deal from the Angels and a $2.3MM signing bonus.
Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times profiled Sasaki last month, noting that Sasaki’s contract with the Marines “is thought to” have an escape clause that would allow the righty to leave for the majors at any time. Ohtani enacted such a clause in 2017, though Ohtani had played five seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.
The Sponichi article didn’t give any mention about such a contractual opt-out, though the unusual timing of Sasaki’s request perhaps does indicate that he has some leverage to take this rather immediate plunge into the posting system. Castillo/Harris wrote that the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants have all “intensely scouted” Sasaki in Japan, and at one point, the Dodgers thought that Sasaki would be available as early as this offseason.
Sasaki wouldn’t achieve full free agency until he has nine seasons of service time, and in general, NPB teams don’t post players early until they’re a year or two away from that nine-season threshold. For instance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto played seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes before the Buffaloes agreed to post the star righty this winter, and the 25-year-old Yamamoto now looks poised to command a contract well north of $200MM.
Yamamoto’s combination of youth and skill has all but guaranteed a huge contract, yet even his number could pale in comparison to what Sasaki might receive. Though he would seemingly be limited to a minor league deal at first and would have to wait at least a few seasons into an MLB career to sign an extension without drawing attention from the league office, that might be a risk Sasaki is willing to take given the potential huge payoff down the road. In the interim, he won’t be lacking in compensation, since a jump to the majors would surely boost his endorsement appeal.
Over 283 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.00 ERA, 34.4% strikeout rate, and 5.12% walk rate, and these video-game numbers are only part of Sasaki’s burgeoning legend. His fastball routinely sits in the upper-90s and has topped out at 102.5mph, and his forkball is arguably an even deadlier pitch. Sasaki’s pitched well for Japan’s gold medal-winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and he has two NPB All-Star appearances on his resume. Most famously, Sasaki came within an inning of back-to-back perfect games — he tossed a perfecto against the Buffaloes in April 2022 that saw him record 13 straight strikeouts amidst an NPB-record 19 K’s in his masterpiece of a start. Incredibly, Sasaki followed that up with eight perfect innings in his next outing before being pulled before the start of the ninth due to pitch count reasons (102 pitches).
The Marines’ desire to preserve Sasaki’s arm and overall health has been a main storyline of his career. He was the first overall pick of the 2019 NPB draft, yet he didn’t make his debut with Chiba until May 2021, as the team wanted to ease his development into pro ball. Sasaki missed about six weeks this season due to an oblique strain, limiting him to 91 innings for the 2023 campaign. As MLB’s Dai Takegami Podziewski noted in his last installment of the NPB Players To Watch feature, durability is basically the last question Sasaki has to really answer about his long-term potential, and the righty’s 6’4″, 203-pound frame would suggest that he is perhaps built to hold up under the larger workloads faced by Major League pitchers.
While it remains to be seen if Sasaki will actually be able to enter the 2023-24 free agent market, it would obviously be a game changer in a winter that already has a lot of high-end starters still on the board. If nothing else, Sasaki’s request might well be setting a stage for a posting next winter, when he could join another loaded pitching class that might include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and possibly even Gerrit Cole if the Yankees don’t enact a contract clause preventing Cole from opting out.
Padres, Giants Showing Interest In Harrison Bader
The Giants and Padres are among the teams showing interest in free agent center fielder Harrison Bader, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Both teams also remain involved on KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.
San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi called center field a priority at the start of the offseason. The Padres created a pair of outfield vacancies with last night’s blockbuster that sent Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx.
The Giants have a wider array of possibilities tied to their greater financial flexibility. San Francisco’s 2024 payroll projects around $40MM below this past season’s opening mark, as calculated by Roster Resource. That makes San Francisco a legitimate threat to land any player on the open market, including top center fielder Cody Bellinger.
A run at Bellinger isn’t likely for the Padres, but the Soto trade clears some room to attack the middle tiers of the market. Roster Resource pegs the Friars’ payroll around $156MM, while their luxury tax number (which uses contracts’ average salaries) sits in the $209MM range. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote this morning the Friars prefer to keep their tax number below next year’s $237MM lowest threshold.
That’d be more than enough to accommodate Bader. He’s a rebound target after perhaps the worst season of his career. The 29-year-old hit .232/.274/.348 in 344 plate appearances with the Yankees and Reds. That marked his personal low on-base and slugging marks. Bader had a trio of stints on the injured list, missing time with oblique, hamstring and groin strains.
While that’s clearly not how he envisioned his platform year playing out, Bader had combined for a league average .259/.311/.414 slash between 2021-22. He’s an excellent defender in center field and went 20-23 on stolen base attempts in 98 contests this year. Bader is an asset against left-handed pitching, carrying a .262/.330/.494 slash in his career. His .236/.304/.364 mark versus righty arms is far less imposing, but Bader’s speed and glove can keep him in the lineup in unfavorable platoon situations.