Padres Sign Austin Davis, Zach Reks To Minor League Deals
The Padres recently agreed to minor league contracts with lefty reliever Austin Davis and outfielder Zach Reks, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Reks returns after a stint in Korea, while Davis spent part of last season in Triple-A.
Davis, 31, has pitched in parts of five MLB seasons. The Cal-Bakersfield product got to the big leagues each year between 2018-22 and tallied 136 appearances between the Phillies, Pirates, Red Sox and Twins. Davis turned in a solid 4.15 ERA as a rookie with Philadelphia. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine in each of the following four seasons.
That includes a 5.79 mark over a career-high 56 innings two years ago. Davis spent the vast majority of that year in Boston before a late-season cameo with the Twins. He punched out a solid 24.2% of hitters but issued walks at a near-13% rate. That proved an ominous lead-up to a dreadful season in Triple-A.
Davis inked a minor league pact with the Astros. Assigned to Triple-A Sugar Land, he pitched in 20 games. Over 25 contests, he was tagged for 11.22 earned runs per nine. His control completely evaporated. Davis walked more than a quarter of batters faced and was released in June. He issued 11 more walks in 18 1/3 innings of winter ball in the Dominican Republic, although he nevertheless managed a 2.45 ERA there and impressed San Diego evaluators enough to get another non-roster look.
Reks, a left-handed hitter, logged brief MLB action with the Dodgers and Rangers between 2021-22. He signed with the KBO’s Lotte Giants midway through the ’22 campaign. Reks turned in an impressive .330/.410/.495 slash with Lotte, earning a new contract over the offseason. His follow-up KBO campaign didn’t go as well. Reks got out to a .246/.338/.345 start while battling a knee injury. Lotte released him in June.
The Padres will add him to the organization, likely sending him to Triple-A El Paso to open the season. Reks owns a .290/.388/.537 line over 902 plate appearances at the level. That’s partially a reflection of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but is strong output in any case. Hitting at something approaching that level for El Paso could get him a midseason look in what currently projects as a thin San Diego outfield.
Tigers Acquire Blake Dickerson From Padres
The Tigers announced this evening that they’ve acquired left-hander Blake Dickerson from the Padres in exchange for $500K in international bonus pool money.
Dickerson, 19, was a 12th-round pick by the Padres in the 2023 draft out of Ocean Lakes High School in Virginia. Dickerson received a bonus of $500K, equivalent to that of a fourth-round pick. The southpaw did not appear in a game for the Padres last year, meaning his Tigers debut will also be his professional debut. Baseball America recently ranked Dickerson as the #22 prospect in the San Diego farm system entering the 2024 campaign, noting that the lefty projects to have a high-velocity fastball and an above-average curveball once his 6-foot-6 frame fills out, giving him a chance to be a #4 starter or future bullpen arm depending on the development of his changeup.
For the Tigers, the addition of Dickerson adds another young arm to a system that already features a top pitching prospect in Jackson Jobe as well as lower-level arms such as Ty Madden and Troy Melton. That’s in addition to the stable of young arms contributing to the club at the big league level, led by southpaw Tarik Skubal along with the likes of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Alex Faedo. BA suggests that Dickerson could be a candidate to skip rookie ball and debut at the Low-A level this year.
In exchange for parting ways with Dickerson, the Padres will receive $500K in international bonus pool money, an amount identical to the bonus San Diego signed Dickerson for last summer. The Tigers opened the 2024 international signing period with a bonus pool of $6,520,000 while the Padres opened with a pool of just $4,652,000, tied with the Phillies, Rangers, and Yankees for the smallest among all thirty clubs. The trade, in effect, recoups half of the $1MM in bonus pool space the Padres forfeited by signing shortstop Xander Bogaerts last winter. The vast majority of the club’s bonus pool space for the 2024 signing period was spent on shortstop Leodalis De Vries, who the Padres signed for a $4.2MM bonus last month.
Padres To Move Xander Bogaerts To Second Base
Padres manager Mike Shildt told members of the media today that Xander Bogaerts will be moving from shortstop to second base, with Dennis Lin of The Athletic among those to relay the news. Ha-Seong Kim will cross the bag in the other direction to take over the shortstop position.
It was just a little over a year ago that the Padres signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM contract. At the time, it was a bit of a puzzling fit on the club’s roster. Fernando Tatis Jr. was supposed to be the franchise shortstop once upon a time. In February of 2021, he and the Friars agreed to a historic 14-year, $340MM extension to keep him on the club for the bulk of his career. He ended up missing the 2022 season both due to injuries and a PED suspension, but he was expected back early in 2023. While he was out, Kim provided excellent glovework at the position.
Going into 2023, there was a bit of uncertainty. Tatis was coming off an entirely missed season and the club was thinking about moving him to the outfield. But even if that scenario, they still had Kim to cover short. It wasn’t really expected that they would head into the offseason looking for a mega deal but they landed Bogaerts nonetheless.
Bogaerts’ first year in San Diego resulted in fairly typical offensive production for him. He hit 19 home runs and slashed .285/.350/.440 for a wRC+ of 120. Defensively, Outs Above Average gave him a positive grade of +3 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at -4. He has long been considered a candidate to move off of shortstop, even as a prospect, and it seems the time has now come. For his career, his tallies at short are -31 OAA and -54 DRS.
In the short term, the move is probably best for the 2024 version of the Padres, as Kim is excellent with the glove. He has played 1,505 1/3 innings at short in the majors, just over a full season’s worth. In that time, he’s tallied 22 DRS and 7 OAA. Having him at short and Bogaerts at second should give the club a great middle infield, as even mediocre shortstops often provide solid defense on the other side of the bag.
But taking the wide view, the decision making from the Padres becomes questionable. Twice now in recent years they have given around $300MM to a shortstop on a deal longer than a decade, and now neither will be playing short. Tatis, who has now been moved to right field, is under contract through 2034 and Bogaerts through 2033. Kim is set to become a free agent after 2024, as his deal has a mutual option for 2025 and those provisions are almost never triggered by both parties.
Assuming Kim reaches free agency a year from now, the club will then be looking for a solution at short for 2025 and beyond. They could always move Bogaerts again but he’ll be 32 years old by then and his abilities at that position will only be trending downwards with age. One of the club’s top prospects, Jackson Merrill, is a shortstop who reached Double-A last year. He could perhaps be a solution at that spot down the road but he is reportedly coming into camp as an outfielder, with the club trying to get creative in covering the spots vacated by trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. He could move back to short in 2025 but that might be a bit tricky if he spends this year in the outfield with the big league club instead of getting reps in Triple-A.
The Soto/Grisham deal was necessary because the club is paring back spending this winter. That’s partially a result of their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group falling apart but also connected to their extreme aggression in recent years, which includes giving a massive deal to a shortstop they didn’t really need.
Padres Have Shown Interest In Sal Frelick
The Padres are known to be on the lookout for outfield help and spoke to the Brewers about Sal Frelick at some point, per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic.
The San Diego offseason has largely been defined by financial concerns. The club’s aggressive spending in past offseasons, as well as the collapse of their TV deal with Diamond Sports group, left them having to cut payroll this winter. The largest chunk that they cut out of their spending was when they traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for several young pitchers. Soto eventually agreed to a $31MM salary in his final arbitration year and Grisham agreed at $5.5MM.
The Friars have since signed a few relievers but the payroll is well down. Roster Resource has them at $159MM in terms of pure payroll and $216MM in terms of the competitive balance tax, the wide disparity owing to some backloaded deals, since the CBT is calculated by a contract’s average annual value. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Padres had an Opening Day payroll of $249MM last year, which they are now significantly below. The club reportedly prefers to keep their CBT under the $237MM threshold, giving them about $20MM of wiggle room, which tracks with recent reporting that the club has about $20-30MM left to spend this offseason.
But they still have many holes to fill. The rotation could use another arm or maybe two. There’s room for a designated hitter or potent bench bat type, while the two outfield vacancies still remain. The club recently re-signed Jurickson Profar, but he would be best served to be in a bench/utility role rather than an everyday player.
Given the number of spots to fill and the tight budget, the club has naturally explored cheap external options. It was reported last week that the club had interest of Jarren Duran of the Red Sox. Both he and Frelick are still in their pre-arbitration years, meaning they could potentially provide the Padres with many years of cheap control. However, the flip side is that the acquisition cost in terms of players heading the other way would naturally be higher.
Frelick, 24 in April, made his MLB debut last year and generally performed well. His 16.6% strikeout rate was well below league average and his 12.2% walk rate a few ticks above. He only hit three home runs in his 57 games, but his .246/.341/.351 slash line still got him close to league average overall, a 92 wRC+. He also stole seven bases without being caught while getting strong grades for his glovework. He produced six Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average in that brief showing last year, while also getting a mark of 4.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating.
In addition to that promising debut, he also carries prospect pedigree with him. He was selected by the Brewers with the 15th overall pick in 2021 and was been considered a top 100 prospect while pushing towards the big leagues. Even though his power impact is considered limited, he is still expected to be a viable gap hitter who provides value via his on-base abilities, speed and defense. If the power were to develop later as he matures, that would only improve the equation.
It’s understandable that the Padres would be interested in such a player, as he is clearly talented and also comes with six cheap years of control. That also makes him attractive to the Brewers, however, and they are undoubtedly setting a high asking price.
It’s possible they have some openness to a deal based on their roster, as they have plenty of other outfielders on hand. Prospect Jackson Chourio could be in the picture this year after signing an $82MM extension. Christian Yelich is still a regular in left. Frelick would be in the mix for playing time alongside players like Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins and Chris Roller. It’s possible to subtract Frelick from there and still have a decent outfield. Frelick, Wiemer and Mitchell are all glove-first types but Chourio is expected to cover center field for years to come, so perhaps they would be better off trading someone from that group and getting a typical power bat to put into a corner.
It’s unclear when these talks took place or if anything got close. Despite their recent Corbin Burnes trade, the Brewers aren’t tanking, as they targeted MLB-ready pieces in that deal and have spent money on players like Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sánchez and Jakob Junis. If they were to consider any kind of Frelick trade, they would likely be looking for players who could help them compete in 2024. Whether the Padres have the pieces to get that done, and the willingness to give them up, remains to be seen.
Elsewhere in Padres’ notes, Lin adds that it’s unclear if Ha-Seong Kim would be eligible for a qualifying offer if traded between the Padres’ Seoul Series and the resumption of their season. Players are normally ineligible for a qualifying offer if traded midseason. The Padres have an unusual start to their schedule, with two games in Seoul against the Dodgers March 20 and 21, then a gap until they play the Giants on the league-wide Opening Day of March 28 in San Diego.
Kim is an impending free agent, as his deal has a mutual option for 2025 but those provisions are almost never picked up by both sides. With the Padres looking to cut some costs, Kim’s name has popped up in trade rumors. The Padres could move Jake Cronenworth back to second base and then use the money saved by trading Kim to find first base help. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that they may prefer to hold off on such a deal until after the Seoul Series so that Kim can play in front of the fans of his home country.
But taking such a path may not allow them to market a future QO to a trading partner. Hypothetically, a team acquiring Kim might plan on making him a QO at season’s end and recouping some the value that they gave in the trade. Such a situation has never previously occurred and Lin reports that MLB and the MLBPA would have to discuss it if it came to pass, which would seem to muddy the waters a bit on a possible trade.
MLBTR Podcast: Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants to sign Jorge Soler (1:25)
- The Brewers to sign Gary Sánchez (11:15)
- The Pirates to sign Yasmani Grandal (18:55)
- The Padres to sign Jurickson Profar (23:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Which teams do you think have a chance to exceed expectations this year like the Diamondbacks and Reds did last year? (26:00)
- Matt Chapman to the Cubs for one year and $27MM plus a $30MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3MM buyout, who says no? (30:40)
- Does Carlos Santana make the Twins better? (34:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
- The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans – listen here
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Padres Continue To Explore Outfield, Rotation Markets
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller met with reporters on Tuesday afternoon as spring camp got underway. Pointing to a “late-developing market,” Preller made clear the team anticipated making a few more acquisitions (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).
“We’ve had, honestly, trade conversations that are still ongoing. Usually at this point in the season, most teams are focused on: They have their roster, getting into Spring Training, going and playing,” Preller said. “We’ve been pretty active. … We’re always going to be looking to add and improve. The team that starts camp here in the next couple days, it’s not going to be the team that, obviously, we finish with.”
That’s self-evident given the state of the team’s outfield. The Padres have two clear openings alongside Fernando Tatis Jr. after trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. Light-hitting center fielder José Azocar is the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster. Jurickson Profar will join him once his one-year contract is finalized, yet he’s more of a depth option after a rough season in Colorado.
San Diego has had recent conversations with the Red Sox regarding Jarren Duran. He’s surely one of a number of possible options the front office has considered. With five years of club control, Boston figures to stick to a high asking price on the lefty-hitting outfielder. San Diego has also shown interest in Michael A. Taylor, the top unsigned free agent center fielder beyond Cody Bellinger, this offseason.
Budget constraints have been the prevailing theme of the Padres’ offseason. They allowed a number of key free agents to depart and offloaded upwards of $30MM in the Soto blockbuster. That cut their projected season-opening spending to around $160MM, as calculated by Roster Resource.
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the team is planning on carrying a player payroll in the $180-190MM range for the upcoming season. That’d leave $20-30MM in remaining spending room, although Acee writes that the team may prefer to keep some of that in reserve for midseason acquisitions. They should be able to bring in a couple low-cost free agents but will have to rely on some internal options to take a step forward.
In the outfield, that could be top prospect Jackson Merrill. He spent much of the offseason training as an outfielder in addition to his customary shortstop work. Merrill enters camp with what appears to be a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day roster as a 20-year-old. He has all of 44 games above A-ball, however. He finished last season with a .273/.338/.444 showing at Double-A San Antonio and hasn’t played at the top minor league level. 22-year-old Jakob Marsee only has 16 games of Double-A experience but put together an impressive .273/.413/.425 showing in High-A and impressed in the Arizona Fall League.
While the outfield is the biggest concern, San Diego could use additional rotation depth and perhaps another bench bat. Preller left open the possibility of bringing in another starter. Only Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King are locks for the season-opening five. Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, Jay Groome, Pedro Avila and prospects like Jairo Iriarte and Drew Thorpe could all vie for season-opening roles. Top prospect Robby Snelling also received an invite to big league camp but seems a long shot for the Opening Day roster, as he has made all of four starts in Double-A.
That group is very light on MLB experience. Even King, who is locked into a mid-rotation role, was a reliever for the Yankees until last August. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reported last week that the Padres were showing some level of interest in free agent starters Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, and old friend Eric Lauer. Acee recently added Noah Syndergaard to that list.
Acquiring controllable pitching in trade at this stage of the offseason would be challenging. That’s particularly true if the Padres are loath to part with the likes of Snelling and Dylan Lesko towards the top of the farm system. If they were to consider dealing from the MLB roster for help in another area, middle infielder Ha-Seong Kim has been their most valuable realistic trade chip. He’s due $10MM this year and will become a free agent when his 2025 mutual option is declined (very likely by Kim) at the beginning of next offseason.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that interest in Kim from other teams remains very high. Yet Preller didn’t sound urgent to deal the Gold Glove winner, characterizing talks more as due diligence. “With the Kim situation, we were pretty consistent through the offseason. You’re never going to hang up the phone. You’re always going to listen on any player when anybody calls. But it wasn’t something we were pushing,” he told reporters (including Cassavell). “We see him as a huge part of our team. Most likely, if we’re going to play well, it’s Ha-Seong Kim in the middle of the diamond.“
Padres, Jurickson Profar Agree To One-Year Deal
Free agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar and the Padres are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The MVP Sports Group client will be guaranteed $1MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, with the deal still pending a physical. Profar can also add another $1.5MM via incentives based on plate appearances, per Murray.
It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Profar, who turns 31 next week. His career has been extremely up-and-down, something that MLBTR covered in 2022. Last year was another downswing on that sine wave, with 2023 his worst season to date. He opted out of his previous deal with the Padres at the end of 2022, taking the $1MM buyout instead of the $7.5MM salary. He lingered onto the market until the middle of March but did eventually get a one-year, $7.75MM deal from the Rockies, narrowly edging out the money he left on the table.
The move to Colorado didn’t suit Profar. His 18.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate were pretty close to his career norms, but he hit just eight home runs in 472 plate appearances. Given the expectations of the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field, his tepid .236/.316/.364 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of just 72. His defense was graded poorly as well, and the Rockies released him in August. He returned to the Padres late in the year and finished strong, but in a small sample of just 14 games. FanGraphs considered him to be two wins below replacement on the year while Baseball Reference had him at -1.3 WAR.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a key figure in the Rangers’ international scouting department when Profar originally signed and was eventually ranked the top prospect in all of baseball. Multiple shoulder surgeries have derailed his trajectory, but Profar has still shown inconsistent flashes of solid MLB production and Preller clearly still holds an affinity for him. This will be his fifth season suiting up for the Padres, for whom he carries a .246/.334/.376 batting line in 1321 plate appearances dating back to 2020.
From the team’s vantage point, Profar helps to fill a dire need for outfielders. Prior to this signing, San Diego only had two outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr. and light-hitting Jose Azocar. They’ve also been working top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill out in left field and could consider the 20-year-old as an outfield option at some point this season, should that experiment go smoothly, though as it stands Merrill has played just 46 games at the Double-A level and has not yet played a single game in Triple-A.
The Friars have also been working to cut payroll throughout the offseason, so securing Profar at barely more than the league minimum surely held appeal. Profar at least gives the Padres three big league outfielders on the 40-man roster, but his signing likely doesn’t rule out the addition of another more notable signing/acquisition who could push the 27-year-old Azocar into a fourth outfield role for which he’s better suited. With Profar added to the fold, San Diego’s payroll now sits at a projected $159MM, per Roster Resource — more than $90MM south of last year’s franchise-record $255MM mark. The Padres have about $215MM worth of projected luxury tax considerations, however.
In all likelihood, there are still some additions to be made by the Padres between now and Opening Day. Their outfield depth remains perilously thin, and they’ve reportedly been exploring both the trade and free agent markets for ways to change that. Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran is reportedly one potential target. The Padres also have questions in the fourth and fifth spots in their rotation, behind top starters Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King. In-house options include Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Drew Thorpe, Matt Waldron, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and Glenn Otto, among others, but the Padres are also still looking into the lower tiers of free agency. They reportedly have some interest in Noah Syndergaard and in Michael Lorenzen.
NL West Notes: Kershaw, Peralta, Baker
Longtime face of the franchise Clayton Kershaw reunited with the Dodgers earlier this week on a two-year deal, ending the uncertainty that lingered surrounding the southpaw’s future throughout the offseason. Kershaw recently spoke to reporters, including Juan Toribio of MLB.com, regarding the difficult decisions he had to make this offseason regarding surgery and his future as a player.
As relayed by Toribio, Kershaw noted that thoughts of retirement weighed heavily on him for the first time in his career, and that he took his time deciding whether or not to undergo shoulder surgery, which he indicated was necessary to continue his career but wouldn’t have been required from him to partake in day-to-day activities such as catch with his children. Toribio added that Kershaw’s difficult start against the Diamondbacks during Game 1 of the NLDS, where he surrendered six runs while recording just one out, played a role in the southpaw’s decision to return to the Dodgers for a 17th season in the majors.
Toribio indicates that potentially parting ways with the only club he’s pitched for as a professional and pitching for his hometown Rangers held some appeal for Kershaw, but that ultimately the Dodgers’ flurry of activity this offseason played a role in convincing the veteran lefty to remain in L.A. for the 2024 campaign.
“This offseason has been pretty amazing to watch, honestly. There’s definitely a part of me that wanted to be a part of that,” Kershaw told reporters, as relayed by Toribio.
Kershaw isn’t expected to return to a big league mound until the late summer, with Toribio noting that “sometime in July” is the earliest he could pitch for L.A. in 2024. The left-hander is currently slated to ramp his throwing progression up sometime next month and will join the team on homestands during his rehab. The club’s offseason overhaul of their pitching staff leaves them with plenty of options to hold down the fort in the starting rotation during Kershaw’s absence. Though right-hander Walker Buehler is expected to start the season on the injured list, offseason additions Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and James Paxton are currently slated to pitch in the rotation alongside sophomore righty Bobby Miller and an addition young arm such as Emmet Sheehan or Gavin Stone come the start of the regular season.
More from around the NL West…
- The Padres brought in left-hander Wandy Peralta on a four-year deal earlier this week, but The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that this is hardly the first time the club has pursued the veteran southpaw. According to Lin, San Diego’s interest in Peralta dates back to the 2023 trade deadline. At the time, the lefty was subject to some trade speculation as the Yankees toyed with dealing pending free agents due to them sitting at fifth place in the AL East at the time of the trade deadline despite a decent 55-51 record. Ultimately, of course, no deal came together for the lefty, who went on to struggle to a 4.30 ERA and 6.46 FIP down the stretch last year. Looking ahead to 2024, Peralta figures to be part of San Diego’s late inning mix alongside the likes of Yuki Matsui and Robert Suarez as the bullpen looks to bounce back from the loss of Josh Hader earlier this winter.
- The Giants hired recently-retired Astros manager Dusty Baker in a special assistant role last month, and the longtime skipper spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) in Houston recently about his move to San Francisco. Baker indicated that while Houston remains a “second home” to him, a key factor in his decision to join the Giants is the club’s proximity to Sacramento, his hometown. “Getting older, you start thinking about enjoying your life, enjoying your grandchildren,” Baker said, as relayed by McTaggart. “But I still have something, you know, to give to the game and make a living in a part-time capacity.” Baker’s hiring in San Francisco is a homecoming in more ways than one, as he served as manager of the Giants for ten seasons, from 1993 to 2002. He won three NL Manager of the Year awards throughout his tenure with the Giants and led the team to a World Series appearance in his final year with the club.
Padres Interested In Noah Syndergaard
The Padres still have plenty of question marks in the rotation as Spring Training begins, and such free agent starters as Hyun Jin Ryu, Michael Lorenzen, and Eric Lauer have all reportedly been on the team’s radar. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds another veteran arm to that list, as the Padres have also shown interest in Noah Syndergaard.
Reports indicated back in November that several teams had already checked in on Syndergaard, though the Pirates and now the Padres are the only clubs publicly linked to the righty’s market. It is fair to suggest that Syndergaard may be viewed as a fallback option for many of these potential suitors, who prioritized more clearcut rotation upgrades before turning to more speculative bounce-back candidates like Syndergaard.
The 31-year-old threw only 88 2/3 innings over 18 starts with the Dodgers and Guardians last year, as blister problems sent him to the injured list for about seven weeks and Syndergaard’s season ended prematurely when Cleveland released him at the end of August. An excellent 4.9% walk rate was just about the only highlight of Syndergaard’s 2023 campaign, as he posted a 6.50 ERA and a tiny 14.3% strikeout rate while allowing a lot of hard contact and averaging only 92.2mph of velocity on his fastball.
It was a disappointing step back for the former Mets ace, who was once one of the National League’s top pitchers before injuries took a toll on his career. A Tommy John surgery cost Syndergaard virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons, though he had at least decent numbers (3.94 ERA, 5.5% walk rate) over 134 2/3 frames with the Angels and Phillies in 2022. However, the red flags were already in present in drops in strikeouts, velocity, and barrel rate, so Syndergaard ended signing a one-year, $13MM deal with the Dodgers last winter.
Acquiring Syndergaard wouldn’t exactly guarantee more stability for the Padres’ collection of arms, given this recent track record. Expecting a return to his Cy Young candidate form is looking increasingly far-fetched, yet given the Friars’ pitching needs and budgetary limitations, Syndergaard might be the kind of relatively inexpensive veteran who could be a fit at the back end of the rotation.
Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Michael King line up as the top three in the rotation, though King has a limited track record as a starting pitcher. Projected fourth/fifth starter candidates Pedro Avila, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez have limited track records in the big leagues altogether — Avila has thrown only 63 2/3 frames across four MLB seasons, and Brito (90 1/3 IP) and Vazquez (37 2/3 IP) only made their MLB debuts with the Yankees last season. As Acee notes, simply covering innings is going to be a challenge for San Diego even if everyone stays healthy, so signing Syndergaard or a comparable veteran might be almost a necessity to help lessen the workload for the more inexperienced starters.
Padres Have Shown Interest In Jarren Duran; Still Considering Free Agent Starters
The Padres have shown interest in Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’re not alone in that regard, per the report, which indicates that multiple clubs have reached out to the Boston front office to express interest. There’s no indication any sort of deal is nigh, but Dennis Lin of The Athletic similarly hears that the Sox and Padres have had “recent” trade discussions as part of the Friars’ ongoing search for outfield help. San Diego has also considered a reunion with outfielder Tommy Pham, per Lin, though he further notes that no formal offer has been made.
Duran, 27, would fill an acute need for the Padres, whose only established MLB outfielder at the moment is Fernando Tatis Jr. Beyond Tatis and Jose Azocar, San Diego doesn’t even have an outfielder on its 40-man roster. Non-roster invitees to spring training like Oscar Mercado, Bryce Johnson and Cal Mitchell are among the current options to vie for a roster spot in spring training, although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier in the week that the Padres have also been considering the idea of deploying top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill in the outfield this season as well. Merrill, the team’s first-round pick in 2021 and the game’s No. 17 prospect according to Baseball America, would also need to be added to the 40-man roster.
Duran is a former top-100 prospect himself, though he just broke through with his first real major league success as a 26-year-old in 2023. The now-27-year-old former seventh-round pick appeared in 102 games for the Red Sox and batted .295/.346/.482 with eight home runs, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and a 24-for-26 showing in stolen base attempts. Duran also trimmed his formerly problematic strikeout rate to a more manageable 24.9%, although his 6.6% walk rate is two percentage points shy of league-average.
While Duran has elite speed — 95th percentile, per Statcast — his route running and lack of arm strength have led to well below-average grades in center field. Defensive Runs Saved is most bearish, pegging him at -19 in just shy of 1200 innings, while Ultimate Zone Rating has him at -10.5 and Outs Above Average has him at -2. Azocar is capable of handling center field, however, so an acquisition of Duran could lead to him slotting into left field in San Diego, where his glovework would grade more favorably.
There are fair questions about whether Duran can sustain last year’s production at the plate, however. Last year’s .381 average on balls in play may not regress all the way to league-average levels, as players with elite speed can turn grounders into hits at a far higher clip, but Duran’s penchant for chasing pitches off the plate (career 35.1%) and below-average contact rate on such offerings has a tendency to undercut his above-average contact skills on pitches within the zone (92.1%).
Boston’s appetite for dealing Duran remains to be seen, but it’s worth noting that he was drafted back in 2018 and the Sox have now turned over their front office twice since making that selection. First-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow doesn’t have the connection with Duran that predecessors Chaim Bloom and Dave Dombrowski may have. And while Duran is ticketed for a regular role with the Sox as the roster is currently constructed, Boston isn’t short on outfield alternatives.
Were Duran to be moved, the Sox could turn to Tyler O’Neill, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu from left field to right field, with designated hitter Masataka Yoshida also mixing into the corners on occasion. Roman Anthony, Boston’s second-round pick from the 2022 draft, has already climbed as high as Double-A and recently placed 21st on BA’s Top 100 prospect rankings, creating further depth.
The Padres don’t have that type of outfield depth, due in no small part to years of aggressive win-now trades that have combined to thin out the system. San Diego has also been working to scale back payroll, which would make a pre-arbitration player like Duran a natural target. He’ll very likely be arb-eligible next winter as a Super Two player, but he’d fit the team’s desire to manage payroll during the 2024 campaign. And with just 1.155 years of big league service under his belt, Duran could be controlled for five more seasons.
Lin further reports that while the outfield is the greater focus at the moment, San Diego is still exploring the free-agent market for rotation help. He lists Michael Lorenzen, old friend Eric Lauer, and Hyun Jin Ryu as pitchers with whom the San Diego front office has spoken. Heyman, too, lists Ryu as a potential target for the Padres.
Of the three, Lorenzen is coming off the best and healthiest season. An All-Star for the 2023 Tigers, Lorenzen was traded to the Phillies at last summer’s deadline and thrust himself into the spotlight with a pair of dominant performances to begin his Phillies tenure. The converted reliever began to fade after a masterful 124-pitch no-hitter against the Nationals in early August, however, and his struggles snowballed to the point that the Phils dropped him from the rotation to the bullpen. Lorenzen closed out the year with a dismal 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings following that no-hit gem.
Lauer, 28, is a former Padre who went from San Diego to Milwaukee alongside Luis Urias in the trade bringing Trent Grisham to the Friars. He looked to be on his way to a breakout in Milwaukee after adding a slider to his repertoire in 2021, and from ’21-’22 he posted a combined 3.47 ERA in 277 1/3 innings. The 2023 campaign was a disaster that saw Lauer torched for a 6.46 ERA in 46 2/3 innings. Milwaukee optioned him to Triple-A to try to get him back on track, but Lauer yielded a 5.15 earned run average in a near-identical sample of 43 2/3 innings there.
Elbow and shoulder injuries have both sent Lauer to the injured list over the past two seasons. It’s possible that he wasn’t at full strength in 2023, given that pair of IL trips and a major dip in his average fastball (93.3 mph in 2022; 91.2 mph in 2023). If Lauer is at full strength, he’d be a nice buy-low option — particularly since his 4.111 years of MLB service make him controllable through the 2025 season for any team that signs him.
As for Ryu, he pitched well in his return to the Blue Jays following Tommy John surgery. The ten-year MLB veteran notched a 3.46 ERA over 11 starts and 52 innings, though his performance wasn’t without its own reasons for hesitation. Ryu only pitched beyond the fifth inning once in 2023, and the Jays never let him reach even 90 pitches in an appearance. Last year’s 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low mark, and his 17% strikeout rate was his third-lowest in ten MLB seasons. Ryu was quite homer-prone in 27 innings in 2022 before undergoing surgery, but he was even more susceptible to the long ball last year, yielding nine in his 52 innings (1.56 HR/9).
Lorenzen might still have enough track record and interest to generate a two-year offer in free agency, but it’s likely Ryu and certainly Lauer will be available on one-year pacts that check in under $10MM — well under in the case of Lauer, who’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.2MM salary before being non-tendered. San Diego’s current $159MM payroll and $215MM luxury tax projection (via Roster Resouce) should leave some room for additional spending, even as the team looks to cut spending. Last year’s Padres payroll climbed as high as $255MM.