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Padres, Jared Koenig Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres are in agreement with Jared Koenig on a minor league contract, as first announced on Twitter by Matthew Rossignol. The left-hander seems likely to head to Triple-A El Paso to open the season.

Koenig, an undrafted player in 2017, spent a couple years in independent ball to open his professional career. He eventually landed a minor league deal with the A’s heading into 2021. Koenig pitched well for their Double-A affiliate that season and got a bump to Triple-A Las Vegas to open last year. He went on to throw 107 innings of 4.71 ERA ball — deceptively solid production considering the Pacific Coast League’s extreme hitter-friendly nature — over 20 Triple-A outings.

That upper minors production earned Koenig a major league call last June. He’d make ten appearances (five starts) in green and gold, allowing a 5.72 ERA in 39 1/3 innings. He only struck out 12.4% of opponents on a minuscule 6.4% swinging strike percentage. Yet he induced grounders at a strong 48.5% clip and kept his walk rate to a manageable 8.5% mark.

Oakland non-tendered Koenig at the start of the offseason, sending him directly to free agency without first going through waivers. The 29-year-old now joins the second affiliated organization of his career. Koenig adds a strike-throwing rotation depth arm to the San Diego system. He doesn’t brandish a power arsenal, averaging only 89.2 MPH on his sinker and 77.6 MPH on a curveball during his major league look. Koenig found success in spite of the lack of velocity in the upper minors, mixing five pitches and throwing a decent number of strikes.

San Diego looks set to open the season with a six-man rotation of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. Depth options on the 40-man roster include Jay Groome, Brent Honeywell Jr., Adrián Morejón, Reiss Knehr and Ryan Weathers. Koenig will slot in behind that group. He joins Julio Teheran, Cole Hamels, Wilmer Font and Aaron Brooks among non-roster rotation options who have some big league experience.

NL Notes: Song, Lee, Hamels

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The Phillies and right-hander Noah Song are going to attempt something unprecedented, as he is now in camp after spending the past three years in the Navy. Both Song and Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke to reporters about the unusual situation today, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer.

“The reality is it’s a gamble,” Dombroski said of taking Song from the Red Sox in November’s Rule 5 draft. “That’s what it is. I do not know when he picks up a ball and he starts throwing off the mound and puts something into it, once his arm is in good enough shape, I don’t know if he’s going throw 85 or 95. But we think it’s worth the risk.”

Dombrowski is certainly familiar with Song’s past pedigree as a prospect, since he was with the Sox when Song was drafted. Some evaluators considered the youngster to be a first-round talent at that time, but Boston was able to take him in the fourth because clubs were concerned about his commitment to the military. Dombrowski said that taking the gamble this winter was worth it, even though Song was still committed to the Navy at the time, since he could be a “top-of-the-rotation type pitcher” or a “star major leaguer,” the type of player that’s not usually available in the draft. “For us, the [Rule 5] draft price is $100,000, and if we return him [to the Red Sox], it’s $50,000, so that’s not much of a risk, financially,” Dombrowski said. “He’s not counted on our roster, so we haven’t even lost a player to put him on the 40-man roster. We thought it was worth the gamble with the high upside that he could bring.”

For now, the gamble has paid off, in the sense that Song has been transferred from active duty to the reserves. That’s allowed him to pursue baseball but it doesn’t seem he’s completely without limits, as Coffey relays that his transfer to reserve status means he’ll be putting in 12 years of part-time duty instead of six years of full-time. As part of that part-time duty, he’ll still have to serve one weekend per month and two full weeks per year. The logistics of how that will play out during the season remain to be seen.

Song last pitched professionally in High-A in 2019 and will now have to try to get back on track quickly. As a Rule 5 draftee, he has to stick on an active roster all season long or else be put on waivers and offered back to the Sox if he clears. “It felt rough,” Song said of his first bullpen since the news of his transfer. “It felt like I was trying to walk again. Trying to learn new things. But as far as expectations go, just trying to manage expectations, really. I don’t really know what my future or ceiling might be. But just trying to figure out what it is, what the new one is, I guess.”

Song’s journey has already been a unique one and his next stage will be one of the more fascinating spring stories to watch.

Some other notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • Nationals left-hander Evan Lee will be treated strictly as a reliever this spring, manager Dave Martinez tells Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Lee, 26 in June, came up primarily as a starter in his time in the minors, including a 2021 season where he pitched 77 innings in High-A with a 4.32 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate. He was added to the club’s 40-man in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He was able to make his MLB debut in June of last year, putting up a 4.15 ERA over four appearances, but he then went to the injured list with a flexor strain. He made some minor league appearances on a rehab assignment as the season was winding down but didn’t return to the majors and was outrighted off the roster in November. The Nats only have four lefties on their 40-man, with Patrick Corbin and MacKenzie Gore slated to the in the rotation, while Matt Cronin and Jose Ferrer have yet to reach the majors. Perhaps there is a path for Lee to get back to the big leagues but he’ll be competing with non-roster invitees like Sean Doolittle and Anthony Banda.
  • The Padres brought veteran lefty Cole Hamels aboard on a minor league deal recently but he won’t factor into their starting pitching depth immediately. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the southpaw won’t pitch in games until extended Spring Training and will then head to the minors. If he progresses to game readiness and isn’t given a spot on the big league roster, he has monthly opportunities to opt-out of the contract. Hamels missed the past two seasons primarily due to shoulder injuries, in addition to other ailments. He also only made a single start in 2020. Prior to that, however, he was one of the best pitchers in the league for over a decade. “As an athlete, we know we can compete and we’ve done it for a long time,” he tells Acee. “It’s just a matter of (whether) your body will allow you to do it. I think that’s the part that we all battle as our careers kind of come towards those ending points. The body and will you be able to get out there and will you be able to get results? Will you be able to recover? And that’s where we’re at in this stage, and that’s what I’m trying to do.”

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Catcher And Pro Scout Brian Johnson

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Brian Johnson was a 16th-round pick by the Yankees in 1989 out of Stanford University, where he’d been the football team’s quarterback and a jack-of-all-trades on a baseball club that won a pair of College World Series titles. Ironically, one of the only positions Johnson didn’t play in college was catcher, which wound up being his primary position over the course of an eight-year Major League career.

Johnson spent parts of three seasons in the Yankees’ system but wound up debuting with the Padres in the strike-shortened 1994 season, batting .247/.283/.409 and connecting on the first three of his 49 big league home runs. Johnson spent three seasons in San Diego, batting .260/.288/.392 along the way, before being traded to the Tigers in a trade that shipped left-hander Joey Eischen back to the Padres.

While his run in Detroit proved brief — 45 games before being flipped to the Giants in a one-for-one swap for fellow catcher Marcus Jensen — Johnson found himself with the Giants and closed out the year with his most productive stretch as a big leaguer. Following the trade, he raked at a .279/.333/.525 clip, swatting 11 home runs in 201 trips to the plate. He spent a second year with the Giants, hitting .237/.310/.396 in 99 games, before bouncing through one-year stints with the Reds, Royals and Dodgers.

All told, Johnson’s career drew to a close with a .248/.291/.403 batting line, 49 home runs, 60 doubles, six triples, 132 runs scored, 196 RBIs, a stolen base and a 29% caught-stealing rate behind the plate. He was part of a pair of NL West division winners: the ’96 Padres and ’97 Giants. Some of the pitchers he homered against include Al Leiter, Rick Reed (twice), Mark Portugal, Mike Remlinger and, in 2000, a rookie left-hander by the name of Johan Santana. On Sept. 18, 1997, Johnson’s clubbed a 12th-inning, walkoff homer that put the Giants into a tie for the NL West lead and is still fondly remembered by Giants faithful as “the Brian Johnson game” (YouTube link).

Following his playing days, Johnson returned to the Giants organization, where he spent 10 seasons in their pro scouting department. That included all three of San Francisco’s World Series victories in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

These days, Brian is a diversity consultant with the Chicago-based Kaleidoscope Group. We were thrilled to have him answer reader questions about his experiences on the field, in the clubhouse and as a big league scout for a trio of World Series winners. Brian graciously took two hours of his time to talk with fans, sharing memories of teaming with legends like Trevor Hoffman and Tony Gwynn, insight on what pro scouts look for when recommending trades, thoughts on the changes in the current game and his experiences and opinions on playing at the height of the steroid era. Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat!

Latest On Padres, Manny Machado

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12:29pm: A source tells MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that the report of Machado seeking a 10-year, $400 million extension is incorrect.  It is not known specifically what Machado is seeking, or whether his camp made a counteroffer to the Padres’ offer to add five years and $105MM to his existing contract.

With Machado’s February 16 deadline having passed, it seems his impending return to the free agent market will be a storyline throughout this highly anticipated Padres season.

10:19am: Padres and third baseman Manny Machado had some extension talks recently, to try to prevent him from opting out of his contract at the end of this season. Reports yesterday indicated the club was willing to tack an extra five years and $105MM to his current deal, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that was $145MM short of his asking price.

Machado originally signed a ten-year, $300MM deal with the Padres that affords him the opportunity to opt out midway through, after the fifth season. He will have five years and $150MM remaining when that opportunity rolls around this fall. Given that he’s played at MVP-caliber levels, especially last year, he could certainly find a guarantee larger than that on the open market. It’s long seemed like he would lean towards triggering that opt-out and recently admitted that he does indeed plan to do so. With the extra five years and $105MM, the club was effectively offering him a ten-year, $255MM deal starting with 2024. Nightengale reports that Machado’s camp was seeking $400MM over that same ten-year stretch, or an extra $250MM on top of his current deal.

Given that massive gap between the two sides, it’s not surprising that a deal didn’t come together. Aaron Judge was coming off one of the best seasons in recent history and earned himself a $360MM contract this offseason, one of the largest deals ever. That Machado and his reps are setting their sights above that range is quite ambitious, but also understandable. The player has the security of knowing that he has that $150MM secured, even if he should suffer some kind of worst-case scenario such as a career-altering injury this year. That gives him the leverage to set a really high asking price since driving a hard bargain right now doesn’t create any risk of coming up empty-handed.

For the Padres, it’s not surprising that they balked at such an ask. They’ve been quite aggressive in recent years, including their previous deal with Machado, their $340MM extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., $280MM deal with Xander Bogaerts and others. However, the kind of deal that Machado was seeking would have been on another level.

In addition to the straightforward cash dealings to consider, they also have the luxury tax to think about. It was recently reported that the club’s competitive balance tax calculation places them narrowly below the third tier of $273MM, with recent deals for players like Michael Wacha and Yu Darvish intentionally structured in ways that lower their respective tax hits. Going over that line would lead to increased taxation as well as their top pick in the 2024 draft being dropped by ten slots.

The CBT is calculated by the average annual value of a deal, not a player’s salary in a given season. Machado’s current deal comes with a $30MM hit but the extension he sought would effectively turn the contract into a $550 deal over 15 years for tax purposes, combining the $400MM he sought for the future and the $150MM that he will have earned at the end of 2023. That would increase his tax hit to $36.67MM, adding to the club’s tax hit and surely bumping them over that threshold.

Since Machado’s camp reportedly set a deadline of February 16 for contract talks, it seems that a deal won’t be coming together at this time. It’s always possible that the Padres come back with an offer strong enough to make him reconsider that position, but given their tax situation, it seems that things are aligned for Machado to play out the season and hit the open market again. He would be one of the top free agents in the class alongside players like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Nola. The Padres could always re-sign him at that point, but they will surely have competition from other clubs around the league.

Machado’s tenure with the club has been largely successful. After not qualifying for the postseason since 2006, they’ve been there twice in the past three years. Machado launched 32 home runs last year and hit .298/.366/.531 for a wRC+ of 152. He produced 7.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and came in second in the National League Most Valuable Player voting, trailing only Paul Goldschmidt. They have been aggressive this winter in adding free agents and seem poised for another strong season in 2023, but whether they can keep their star third baseman around beyond that remains to be seen.

Dodgers Hire Tyson Ross For Special Assistant Role

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The Dodgers have hired Tyson Ross for a special assistant position, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports (Twitter link).  Ross will be involved in the team’s player development and player performance departments.  The hiring seemingly indicates that Ross has ended his playing career after 10 Major League seasons.

A second-round pick for the Athletics in 2008, Ross began his career with three seasons for his hometown team before he was traded to the Padres during the 2012-13 offseason.  The right-hander reached another level with his new club, posting strong numbers as a member of San Diego’s rotation and receiving an All-Star nod in 2014.

Unfortunately for Ross, injuries limited his effectiveness after this promising run.  He pitched in only a single game in 2016 due to shoulder problems and eventually a surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.  After two injury-marred seasons, it seemed like Ross was regaining some of his old effectiveness during a solid 2018 year with the Padres and Cardinals, but after signing with the Tigers in December 2018, his time in Detroit was limited to only seven starts due to elbow problems.

Ross’ five innings of work in the Tigers’ 6-0 loss to the Twins on May 10, 2019 ended up being his final Major League appearance.  He signed a minor league deal with the Giants prior to the 2020 season but he chose to opt out of the pandemic-shortened season, and another minors deal with the Rangers in the 2020-21 offseason didn’t lead to any game time even in the minors before he was released that May.

Ross turns 36 in April, and he is hanging up his cleats after 203 MLB games (142 of them starts) and 904 2/3 innings.  During his time with the A’s, Padres, Rangers, Cardinals, and Tigers, Ross had a 4.04 ERA, relying on a grounder-heavy arsenal rather than blow-away strikeout numbers.  Ross had a 53.5% grounder rate to go along with a 21.2% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate.

As he embarks on this new role with the Dodgers, Ross now finds himself opposite his younger brother Joe on both sides of the heated Los Angeles/San Francisco rivalry.  Joe (who is recovering from Tommy John surgery) signed a minors deal with the Giants last month.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Tyson on a fine career, and we wish him the best as he moves into his post-playing endeavors in the game.

Manny Machado Set Feb 16 Deadline For Padres Extension Talks; Team Offered Further Five-Years, $105MM

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Manny Machado set the Padres a deadline of February 16 to offer him an extension that would’ve meant he avoided free agency at the end of the 2023 season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Acee, the Padres made just one offer to Machado two days prior to his deadline, offering to tack on an extra five-years and $105MM to his current deal. That would’ve taken their total commitment to Machado to 15-years, $405MM. Machado is planning to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and combining the remaining value of Machado’s contract (five-years, $150MM from 2024-28) with this new offer would’ve equated to a ten-year, $255MM deal.

According to Acee’s report, Machado confirmed in a brief interview that in early December he set the Padres a deadline of February 16  because “I just wanted to focus on baseball. So once the season started, I didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things. I just want to focus on my team and the guys in here and what our goal is — to win a championship. So (Thursday) was our deadline, and after that it was just focus on baseball, going out there and winning.” Machado’s interview also confirmed that he received just the one offer from San Diego, but did not confirm the terms reported.

Machado’s current ten-year, $300MM deal runs through the 2028 season, but contains a player opt out at the end of 2023. Machado confirmed just yesterday his intentions to exercise that clause and opt out of the remaining five-years, $150MM on his deal. That should come as no surprise, as Machado has been one of the game’s best players in recent seasons and at 30 is both young enough and good enough to earn a long term deal far surpassing what was remaining on his current contract.

While his 2023 season will naturally play a significant part in Machado’s market next winter, there certainly seems a strong case for him to pick up a bigger deal than the ten-year, $255MM deal the Padres have effectively offered him here. Machado’s been worth 11.7 fWAR over the past two seasons and has four career 6+ fWAR seasons. Compare that to his new team mate Xander Bogaerts, who inked an 11-year, $280MM deal with San Diego this winter. Bogaerts is a fine player, but he’s been worth 10.5 fWAR over the past two seasons and 2022 was his lone 6+ fWAR season. Of course, fWAR is not the determining factor in contract negotiations, but it serves as a relevant data point to consider why Machado might see himself as worth more on the open market than ten-years, $255MM.

Machado’s resume to date is nothing short of stellar. An MVP runner up in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-five MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger to his name thus far. He’s a threat on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by his career 124 wRC+ and 97 Defensive Runs Saved at third base.

With Machado’s deadline now passed, it appears likelier than ever that he’ll hit the open market at the end of the season. As the likely top free agent not named Shohei Ohtani next winter, Machado seems a good chance to become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career.

Manny Machado Planning To Exercise Opt-Out Following 2023 Season

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Padres superstar Manny Machado today confirmed to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, that he plans on opting out of the remainder of his contract following the 2023 season. Machado signed his current 10-year, $300MM agreement with San Diego ahead of the 2019 season, and in opting out would leave five years, $150MM left on the table from his current contract.

This decision is no real surprise, as that $150MM figure appears to be one Machado should have no trouble beating on the open market next offseason, provided he remains healthy. After an offseason that saw top free agent Aaron Judge sign a $360MM deal that begins in his age 31 season, it seems like a reasonable bet that Machado, who would also be entering free agency ahead of his age 31 season, might become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career, though he obviously would not be playing through the entirety of his first one.

Machado’s certainly performed at a level to this point in his career that would warrant such a contract. The runner-up for the NL MVP award in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-5 MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves, and a Silver Slugger award under his belt. With a career 124 wRC+, strong defense at third base, and 46.4 fWAR already accrued in his career, Machado appears to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory, particularly considering the fact that his offensive game has taken a step up in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2018 season, Machado’s wRC+ is 133, and it jumps to 139 when examining the 2020-2022 seasons.

As Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated notes, Machado is looking to sign for double-digit years, a mark Judge barely missed with his nine-year pact this offseason but shortstops Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts both managed to eclipse. This appears to be a reasonable ask, particularly given that Machado seems likely to be the consensus top free agent in the 2023-24 free agent class after two-way unicorn Shohei Ohtani. A 10-year deal for Machado would take him through his age-40 campaign, an age teams seem to be increasingly willing to sign players through this offseason than in years past.

The Padres, themselves, are at the forefront of this movement toward signing players to longer deals. They signed both Bogaerts and Yu Darvish to deals that will take them beyond their 40th birthdays this offseason, and made similar offers to both Turner and Judge as well. Despite Machado’s plans to opt-out following the 2023 campaign, there appears to be interest in an extension, with the Padres reportedly set to pursue a new deal with Machado this spring, it’s possible that San Diego’s comfort in signing players through their age-40 seasons would give them a leg up in negotiations.

On the other hand, the Padres are in a somewhat difficult payroll situation. They’re a lock to pay into the luxury tax in 2023, already have two long-term megadeals on the books in Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr., and on top of all that, Juan Soto’s free agency is looming following the 2024 season. It seems to be a reasonable question as to whether or not they can maintain their current payroll levels at all, much less add to them as they would need to in order to retain Machado and Soto.

Rene Rivera Announces Retirement

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Longtime big league catcher René Rivera took to Instagram to announce his retirement Friday morning. “In June 2001, I had the opportunity to make one of my dreams come true, to get signed as a professional baseball player,” Rivera wrote. “21 years later, I thank God for the career he has allowed me to have. Today I want to announce that I am retiring as a professional baseball player.”

The 39-year-old goes on to thank every organization for which he played. He also expressed gratitude to his family, coaches, representatives and fans before concluding he’s “ready for the next step of (his) career.”

Rivera, a native of Puerto Rico, was selected by the Mariners in the second round of the ’01 draft. He was in the majors a little more than three years later, debuting as a September call-up in 2004 not long after his 21st birthday. Rivera spent a few seasons as a depth catcher for Seattle, combining to appear in 53 MLB games over his first three years.

After the 2006 campaign, Rivera kicked off a nomadic path that’d define his entire career. He was out of the majors entirely between 2007-10, bouncing between various organizations’ upper minors affiliates and spending some time in independent ball. Rivera returned to the bigs with the Twins in 2011 for a 45-game stint and played the following year in Triple-A.

A brief showing with the Padres in 2013 set the stage for Rivera to improbably break through as San Diego’s primary catcher at age 30 the next year. He connected on 11 home runs over a career-high 329 plate appearances during the ’14 season, hitting .252/.319/.432. The following offseason, San Diego sent him to the Rays in the three-team blockbuster that moved Wil Myers to Southern California, Steven Souza to Tampa Bay and then-prospect Trea Turner to Washington.

Rivera played in a personal-high 110 games with Tampa Bay but couldn’t recapture his prior year’s success at the plate. He hit .178/.213/.275 over 319 trips to the dish with the Rays and was released before the following season. He quickly signed with the Mets and would see a decent amount of action in Queens over the latter portion of his career. Rivera played in 65 games for the Mets in 2016 before logging 74 contests between New York and the Cubs the next year. He split the 2018 campaign with the Angels and Braves, then returned to the Mets as a depth catcher from 2019-20. Rivera’s final major league action came in 2021, when he got into 25 games between the Indians and Nationals.

While Rivera was rarely much of an offensive contributor, his strong defensive reputation earned him repeated opportunities. He ultimately logged parts of 13 MLB campaigns over a professional career that spanned two decades, suiting up at the MLB level for ten different teams. Rivera played in 542 big league contests, hitting .221/.273/.354 with 43 home runs across 1629 plate appearances. He spent nearly 4000 innings behind the plate, posting consistently strong marks from pitch framing metrics and cutting down a fantastic 36.5% of attempted basestealers.

MLBTR congratulates Rivera on his lengthy run in the professional ranks and wishes him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Padres, Cole Hamels In Agreement On Minor League Deal

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10:18pm: Hamels’ deal would contain a $2MM base salary if he cracks the MLB roster, reports Bernie Wilson of the Associated Press.

3:20pm: The Padres and left-hander Cole Hamels are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Presumably, Hamels will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training once the deal is finalized. The southpaw is represented by John Boggs & Associates.

Hamels, 39, is a wild card at this point in his career. He spent many years as one of the most reliable and consistent hurlers in the big leagues but has barely pitched at all over the past three seasons. From 2006 through 2019, he logged just shy of 2,700 innings with a 3.42 ERA in that time. He pitched at least 132 frames in all 14 of those campaigns and topped 180 in 11 of them. His ERA was never higher than 4.32 in any individual season and he kept that mark under 4.00 in all but three of those years. He also pitched in the postseason in eight of those campaigns, winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors in 2008 with the world champion Phillies.

But as mentioned, the story has been flipped in recent years. Hamels signed a one-year, $18MM deal with Atlanta for 2020 but was slowed by shoulder irritation as the start of the season neared. The pandemic ended up putting everything on pause, giving him time to recuperate. Once things ramped up again, however, he was dealing with triceps tendinitis. He came off the injured list in September and made one start, but went right back on the IL after that.

He didn’t sign with anyone in the subsequent offseason, eventually holding a showcase in July of 2021 to demonstrate his health to interested clubs. The Dodgers signed him at that point but he was ruled out for the season just a couple of weeks later with his shoulder pain returning. He didn’t pitch at all in 2022, recently telling the Associated Press that he underwent three surgeries in the past year, on his left shoulder, right knee and left foot. Nonetheless, he still had his sights set on a comeback and held a showcase for scouts last month. The Padres were connected to him and Michael Wacha in rumors a few days ago and have now added both pitchers to their staff.

It’s tough to know what to expect from Hamels at this point. That single start in 2020 is his only appearance over the past three years and he’s been under the knife quite a bit since then. But since this is just a minor league deal, there’s no real risk for the Padres. They can bring him into camp and see if Hamels is capable of getting back on track at all.

Up until recently, the club had a fairly lopsided rotation. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell provided them with a strong front three but there were question marks behind them. The frontrunners for the backend spots in the rotation were Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, both of whom are not really established as starters. Martinez had better results out of the bullpen last year while Lugo hasn’t really been a starter since 2017. The signing of Wacha this week could help to firm up the back of the rotation since he put up a 3.32 ERA with the Red Sox last year.

Hamels will be trying to prove himself healthy and force his way into that mix. If either Lugo or Martinez struggle in their attempts to secure rotation jobs, the Padres will need other options on hand. And there are also the inevitable pitcher injuries to consider. They have other options on the roster, such as Adrián Morejón, Jay Groome, Brent Honeywell Jr., Reiss Knehr, Ryan Weathers and Pedro Avila, but if Hamels looks anything like his old self, he could leapfrog all of those guys. If he does so, he’ll be pitching for his hometown team, having been born and raised in the San Diego area.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Remain Narrowly Below $273MM Third CBT Threshold After Wacha Deal

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The Padres finalized their agreement with starter Michael Wacha this morning. That pact contained options from both the team and player perspective designed to meet the right-hander’s asking price while keeping the deal’s average annual value down for luxury tax purposes. It’s officially a four-year, $26MM guarantee, leading to a $6.5MM CBT hit.

That contract structure brings the Padres’ estimated luxury tax number around $272.2MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s about $800K shy of the $273MM mark that delineates the third threshold of tax penalization. Public payroll figures are estimates, though Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirm with team officials the club remains narrowly below the $273MM figure. That’s no coincidence, of course, with the Padres’ front office intentionally structuring some recent contracts to add to the roster while staying under that threshold.

At the start of the offseason, the Friars signed Nick Martinez to a deal that was similarly built with dual club/player options and technically came out to an approximate $8.667MM average annual value. More recently, San Diego’s extension negotiations with Yu Darvish were shaped by the team’s CBT situation. The Friars signed the All-Star righty to a five-year, $90MM extension covering the 2024-28 seasons last week. That paired with Darvish’s preexisting $18MM salary for the upcoming season to result in a matching tax hit. Before the extension, Darvish had counted for $21MM against the luxury tax (reflecting the AAV of his prior front-loaded six-year, $126MM agreement with the Cubs). The extension trimmed $3MM off the team’s tax bill this year, which freed up breathing room under the $273MM mark for the Wacha money.

In the process, San Diego made a commitment to Darvish running through his age-41 season. Investing for that long in a pitcher of his age certainly isn’t without risk, though it’s one the Friars preferred to a shorter-term deal that could’ve come with higher annual salaries. Lin and Rosenthal report that Darvish’s camp initially broached extension talks seeking a two-year, $60MM deal. Instead, the Padres made a longer commitment that guarantees the veteran hurler an extra $30MM altogether but comes at a much lower annual value.

According to the Athletic, San Diego also pursued a multi-year guarantee with player options for Johnny Cueto before he signed with the Marlins last month. San Diego was known to be involved in the Cueto market. Rather than accept a deal similar to the ones Martinez and Wacha ended up taking, Cueto took a one-year, $8.5MM pact with a 2024 club option from the Marlins.

Ultimately, the Padres’ maneuverings allow them to open Spring Training a hair south of the third tax threshold. A team’s luxury tax number is calculated at the end of the season, not during exhibition play or on Opening Day. Depending on how much room exists below $273MM, the Friars could certainly wind up above that number — either by making a midseason acquisition via trade or waivers or simply by selecting the contract of a non-roster Spring Training invitee whose deal contains a base salary above the league minimum (i.e. Pedro Severino).

For the time being, however, the organization has an obvious desire to keep south of the $273MM figure. Finishing a season above the third tax threshold results in a team’s top draft choice for the following year (2024, in this instance) being moved back ten spots. It also subjects a team to higher payments. The Friars are set to pay a 50% tax on any spending between $233MM and $253MM and a 62% fee on spending between $253MM and $273MM. They’d be taxed at a 90% rate on spending from $273MM to $293MM. The latter penalties are ones they’re clearly looking to avoid right now.

San Diego heads into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. Perhaps they’ll eventually go beyond the third threshold to maximize this roster’s chances of contending. As of now, they project for the third-highest CBT payroll in the majors. The Mets are running away from the rest of the league in spending, while the Yankees are reportedly just under the final tax threshold at $293MM and reluctant to surpass that figure.

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