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Joe Musgrove "Tweaks" Shoulder

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Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters today (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that right-hander Joe Musgrove “tweaked” his shoulder in his most recent rehab start, and could have his next rehab start pushed back by a day or two as a consequence of this. Musgrove opened the season on the injured list due to a fractured toe he suffered during Spring Training. In Musgrove’s absence, the club has opted for a six-man rotation with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell being followed by Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez, and Ryan Weathers.

An All Star in 2022, Musgrove has blossomed into a top of the rotation arm since being traded to the Padres ahead of the 2021 season. Over the past two campaigns, Musgrove has posted a 3.06 ERA with a 3.64 FIP while notching 387 strikeouts in 362 1/3 innings of work. Those numbers put him among the more durable starters in the game today in addition to his quality run prevention numbers and above-average strikeout rate. 2023 is the first year of Musgrove’s five-year, $100MM extension that he signed with the club last summer.

Padres Place David Dahl On 10-Day Injured List

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The Padres placed outfielder David Dahl on the 10-day injured list due to a right quad strain, with a retroactive placement date of April 7.  Brandon Dixon was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

San Diego signed Dahl to a minor league deal during the offseason, and he broke camp with the team and appeared in four games for the Padres before this latest injury setback.  Manager Bob Melvin said yesterday that Dahl was hurt while running sprints in the outfield prior to Saturday’s game, and that an IL stint seemed possible.

Dahl is unfortunately no stranger to the injured list, as several health problems (including a lacerated spleen, a stress fracture in his rib, and various back and shoulder issues) have hampered his career.  It seemed like he’d finally broken through with an All-Star season with the Rockies in 2019, but Dahl has hit only .199/.236/.303 over 328 Major League plate appearances since the start of the 2020 campaign.  Dahl didn’t see any big league action in 2022, spending the year at the Triple-A affiliates of the Nationals and Brewers.

Dixon’s multi-position versatility will help the Padres address their depth needs in the outfield, but the club is definitely not in an ideal place with both Dahl and Adam Engel on the IL.  Juan Soto and Trent Grisham are everyday starters, of course, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will soon be joining the mix once his PED suspension is up, but until then, San Diego has used backup Jose Azocar, Dahl, and converted infielder Rougned Odor in right field.  Melvin suggested that Nelson Cruz might be an option for some right field work, even though Cruz hasn’t played the outfield since 2018.

Padres Notes: Dahl, Engel, Cruz, Morejon, Pomeranz

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  • Padres outfielder David Dahl suffered a quad injury during a sprinting drill, manager Bob Melvin told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters.  The injured list might be necessary for Dahl, which would further thin the Padres outfield situation since Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t yet eligible for reinstatement and Adam Engel has yet to play this season due to a hamstring strain.  Engel’s timeline isn’t yet clear, but he is participating in games at extended Spring Training to make up for time lost due to both his hamstring and a calf injury during Cactus League play.  Melvin suggested that Nelson Cruz might be an option for the Padres in the outfield, even though Cruz has been a virtual DH-only player (apart from one game at first base with the Rays in 2021) for the last four seasons.
  • In other Padres injury updates, Adrian Morejon is on the 60-day IL with an elbow sprain, but he played his first game of catch Friday in almost a month.  Drew Pomeranz threw a live batting practice session on Saturday as the reliever works his way back from flexor tendon surgery in August 2021.  San Diego played Pomeranz on the 15-day IL to begin the season after he had some elbow inflammation during spring work.

MLBTR Podcast: Implications Of The Cronenworth Deal

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Fernando Tatis Jr. To Begin Rehab Assignment Today

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Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to begin a rehab assignment today, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Tatis will join the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas in advance of his expected activation on April 20, when he will have finished serving last year’s PED suspension.

Tatis, 24, was considered one of the top prospects in the sport during his time in the minors. He made good on that hype in his first couple seasons, hitting 39 home runs and stealing 27 bases over 143 games between 2019 and 2020. His .301/.374/.582 batting line in that time amounted to a wRC+ of 151, indicating he was 51% better than the league average hitter. He got mixed reviews for his defense, but held his own at the premium position of shortstop. All that led to 6.4 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, in less than a full season of work.

Based on his prospect pedigree and fiery arrival in the big leagues, the Padres placed a huge bet on Tatis. They signed him to a 14-year, $340MM extension going into 2021, one of the largest contracts in MLB history. The first season went about as well as expected, as Tatis continued to showcase himself as one of the better players in the league. He hit 42 home runs and stole 25 bases, leading to a .282/.364/.611 batting line and 157 wRC+. That was all despite some shoulder issues limiting him to 130 games and the club pushing him to the outfield for a bit, hoping that would be less taxing than playing shortstop. Even with those hurdles, he still accrued 7.2 fWAR, the highest total among position players that year.

The narrative has been much different since that time, however. He showed up to Spring Training in March of 2021 with a broken wrist, admitting that he had fallen off his motorcycle multiple times during the offseason. He required surgery on that wrist and was expected to miss about three months of the 2022 season, though he remained on the injured list into August as he didn’t return to health as quickly as hoped. He began a rehab assignment that month but it was reported shortly thereafter that he had been given an 80-game suspension after testing positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. That officially ended any chance he had of playing in the big leagues at all in 2022, making that a completely lost season for him.

While out with the suspension, Tatis underwent shoulder surgery and a follow-up procedure on his wrist, using the downtime to try to get as healthy as possible. In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim had taken over the shortstop job and performed well, though the Friars went into the winter determined to make a big free agent splash. They didn’t land Trea Turner or Aaron Judge but eventually succeeded with Xander Bogaerts. He will now take over the shortstop job, pushing Kim to second and returning Tatis to the outfield, where he played 27 games in 2021.

Tatis was cleared to begin baseball activities in January and came into this year’s spring training healthy, hitting .273/.340/.432 in 16 games. The club’s postseason run counted against his suspension, knocking 12 games off the total, but he still had 20 games remaining at the beginning of the regular season. He’s expected to be activated prior to the club’s game on April 20 against the Diamondbacks but will use the next two weeks to get into game shape in Triple-A contests. Rehab assignments for position players have a maximum length of 20 days.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Tatis after a completely lost season, multiple surgeries and a position change. But if he’s able to get anywhere close to his prior level of performance, he will be a huge difference maker for the Padres as they look to make it back to the postseason again. With a lineup already boasting potent sluggers like Bogaerts, Juan Soto and Manny Machado, a healthy and productive Tatis could take them to another level. Defensively, the club has been using Soto in left and Trent Grisham in center this year, while right field starts have gone to David Dahl, José Azocar and Rougned Odor so far. The return of Tatis while likely cut into the playing time of that latter group, as the designated hitter slot figures to be taken by Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.

Padres Outright Michel Báez

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The Padres announced that right-hander Michel Báez has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A El Paso. He had been designated for assignment last week.

Báez, 27, was once a highly-touted prospect, with Baseball America considering him the #28 prospect in the league in 2018. He hasn’t been able to pitch a ton since then, due to various reasons. He split 2019 and 2020 between the majors and minors, though there were no minor leagues in the latter season due to the pandemic. He then required Tommy John surgery in March of 2021. He was able to return to the mound last year, making two appearances in the majors and 41 in the minors. He posted a 4.91 ERA in that time on the farm, striking out 27.4% of batters but walking 11.1%.

The righty lost his roster spot on Opening Day when the club added Domingo Tapia and Rougned Odor. Based on Báez’s former prospect status and remaining option year, it wouldn’t have been a total shock to see another club claim him off waivers. But he ultimately cleared and will stick in the system as depth for the Padres. Since this is his first career outright and he has less than three years of MLB service time, he doesn’t have the right to elect free agency. He’ll head to El Paso and try to work his way back onto the roster.

Rockies Notes: Profar, Bard, Hollowell

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Jurickson Profar made his Rockies debut in today’s 3-1 loss to the Padres, and as fate would have it, Profar’s first game with his new team happened to be against his former team.  Playing with the Padres “was everything to me,” Profar told Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and seemed to express some regret over opting out of his $7.5MM player option to stay with the Padres in 2023.  “If I was a normal free agent, not opting out, it’s different.  Opting out and free agency taking that long, I always wanted to stay….I didn’t want to (opt out), but I did,” Profar said.

The entry into free agency took a long time to resolve, as Profar didn’t reach an agreement with Colorado until March 19 on a one-year, $7.75MM deal.  Rockies hitting coach Hensley Meulens was a key recruiter in the process, as Meulens has been a longtime mentor to Profar dating back to the earliest days of his baseball career in Curacao, and Meulens managed Profar as part of the Netherlands’ team in the World Baseball Classic.  Profar is looking forward to now joining Meulens in the majors, and getting off a fresh start with his new organization.

More from the Mile High City, as the Rockies are 2-2 following their split of the season-opening series with the Padres…

  • Manager Bud Black told media (including MLB.com) that Daniel Bard threw a bullpen on Saturday, and hit 96mph during the session.  It’s a positive sign for the veteran reliever, who began the 2023 campaign on the 15-day injured list due to a return of the anxiety issues that put Bard’s career on hold for several seasons.  There isn’t yet any timetable for Bard’s return, as naturally the Rockies will give him all the time he needs.
  • The Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes placed Gavin Hollowell on the 10-day minor league IL today, and Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette (Twitter link) reports that the right-hander is dealing with forearm tightness.  While the severity of the injury isn’t yet known, any sort of forearm issue is naturally troubling for a pitcher, and it adds to a tough week of news for Hollowell — Allentuck notes that he just missed out on a spot in Colorado’s Opening Day bullpen.  A sixth-round pick for the Rockies in the 2019 draft, Hollowell made his MLB debut last season, posting a 7.71 ERA in seven innings over six appearances.  MLB Pipeline ranks Hollowell as the 24th-best prospect in the Rockies’ farm system, and feels the 6’7″ reliever’s strikeout potential gives him promise, though his control is a work in progress.

Padres Sign Jake Cronenworth To Seven-Year Extension

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April 1: The Padres have now announced the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that it’ll be an $80MM pact over the seven year term. As previously reported, the deal doesn’t start until 2024 though so it won’t affect the Padres’ luxury tax calculation this year. Dennis Lin of The Athletic adds that it includes a limited, eight-team no trade clause.

March 31: The Padres have reached an agreement with infielder Jake Cronenworth on a seven-year extension, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic.  According to Lin, the contract starts with the 2024 season.  Lin notes that Cronenworth “has already passed his physical and the deal is expected to be announced on Saturday.”  Cronenworth is represented by CAA Sports.

Cronenworth, 29, has proven capable of playing second base, first base, and shortstop in his big league career thus far.  Though Cronenworth has by far played second base the most since coming up in 2020, the Padres’ signing of shortstop Xander Bogaerts in December pushes him to first base for 2023.  Cronenworth’s new contract runs through 2030, adding further long-term stability to an infield that already has Bogaerts and third baseman Manny Machado signed through 2033.  About a month ago, the Padres signed Machado to an extension, as the superstar was otherwise expected to deploy his opt-out clause after ’23.

Cronenworth was drafted by the Rays in the seventh round in 2015 out of the University of Michigan, where he pitched and played infield.  In December of 2019, the Rays traded Cronenworth and Tommy Pham to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe, Xavier Edwards, and Esteban Quiroz.  After he won the International League batting crown in ’19, Baseball America rated the two-way Cronenworth as a 45-grade prospect.  At the time they wrote, “Cronenworth is a heady player who gets the most out of his average tools.”

The Padres asked Cronenworth to hit pause on the pitching idea in 2020, and he made their Opening Day roster in July of that pandemic-shortened season.  The left-handed-hitting Cronenworth ended up getting the bulk of the Padres’ innings at second base as a rookie that year, at a time when Eric Hosmer was their first baseman and Fernando Tatis Jr. their shortstop.  Cronenworth and Alec Bohm tied for second in the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Devin Williams.

The Padres signed Ha-Seong Kim in December of 2020, and talked at the time about getting Cronenworth some reps in the outfield.  That didn’t come to pass, but Cronenworth did spend time in ’21 filling in for Tatis at shortstop.  He also earned his first All-Star nod, and posted a 116 wRC+ on the season.

Cronenworth settled in at second base for 2022, making another All-Star team though ultimately slipping a bit to a 109 wRC+.  Cronenworth’s solid defense around the infield, above-average hitting, durability, and versatility led to 4.1 WAR in each of the ’21 and ’22 seasons.  With exactly three years of service after ’22, Cronenworth inked a one-year arbitration deal for 2023 worth $4.225MM.

Cronenworth’s new seven-year deal, then, buys out his final two arbitration years plus another five of free agency.  The seven-year term is perhaps the most surprising element, as it will carry Cronenworth through the age of 36.  Back in January, the Mets signed second baseman Jeff McNeil to an extension that also bought out two arbitration years, but that contract bought out two free agent years with an option for a third.  Another point of comparison is the Rockies’ March 2022 extension for Ryan McMahon, which bought out two arbitration years and four free agent seasons.

We’ve yet to see a dollar figure on Cronenworth’s extension, but surely the competitive balance tax played a significant role in the deal.  As you know, a team’s CBT payroll is calculated using the average annual values of multiyear contracts.  Unexpectedly long terms and therefore lower AAVs have been a theme throughout GM A.J. Preller’s offseason.  Robert Suarez got five years, Bogaerts received 11, Yu Darvish had five years added, and Michael Wacha signed what is considered a four-year deal.

Cronenworth’s new extension doesn’t affect the Padres’ 2023 payroll, which at an estimated $276MM currently sits above the third tax tier of $273MM.  Should the team end 2023 above $273MM, their top draft pick in 2024 will be pushed back ten spots – in addition to the tax penalties owed as a third-time payor.

Cronenworth joins Machado, Bogaerts, Darvish, Tatis, Suarez, and Joe Musgrove as Padres signed through at least 2027.  Before accounting for Cronenworth, but including Nick Martinez and the aforementioned six players, the Padres’ 2025 CBT payroll exceeds $137MM.  Kim, the Padres’ current second baseman, is signed through 2024.

A pair of big-name Padres are still on one-year arbitration deals: Juan Soto and Josh Hader.  Regarding Soto, slated for free agency after 2024, Lin writes, “there have been no indications that the Padres have engaged the star outfielder in serious talks about a potentially record-setting extension.”

In a March article for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, MLBTR’s Steve Adams laid out a Hader extension scenario that would reduce this year’s luxury tax hit, writing, “If the Padres want to keep threading the creative contract needle, offering Hader the longest (if not the largest) contract ever signed by a reliever would probably only qualify as the fourth- or fifth-craziest move they’ve made over the past calendar year.”

Padres Select Rougned Odor, Domingo Tapia

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The Padres announced a few transactions as they set their Opening Day roster. Rougned Odor and reliever Domingo Tapia both made the team, with San Diego formally selecting their contracts. The Friars also confirmed the previously reported addition of outfielder David Dahl to the 40-man. San Diego needed to create two 40-man vacancies. They’ve done so by designating righty Michel Báez for assignment and placing southpaw Adrián Morejón on the 60-day injured list with an elbow sprain.

Additionally, San Diego placed a handful of pitchers on the 15-day IL. Joe Musgrove, Robert Suarez, Drew Pomeranz and José Castillo will all start the season on the shelf.

Odor is entering his tenth season at the big league level. The longtime Ranger second baseman has bounced around the league over the past few seasons. He’s been a below-average hitter overall due to dismal on-base numbers but continued to draw interest thanks to some left-handed power. Odor appeared in 135 games for the Orioles last season, hitting 13 homers but posting just a .207/.275/.357 line in 472 plate appearances.

Signed to a minor league deal over the offseason, Odor impressed in Spring Training. He put together a .316/.422/.474 slash with a pair of homers in 38 at-bats.  The career second baseman also saw some corner outfield action in exhibition play to broaden his defensive flexibility off the bench. He could join Dahl and Matt Carpenter in taking some right field work until Fernando Tatis Jr. returns from suspension.

Tapia, 31, inked a minor league deal over the winter. He threw 17 innings for the A’s last year, allowing 16 runs with more walks than strikeouts. While it wasn’t a particularly encouraging season, Tapia averaged around 98 MPH on his fastball and posted a 1.76 ERA in 30 2/3 innings with Triple-A Las Vegas. He nabs an Opening Day bullpen job in San Diego after tossing eight innings of two-run ball with 11 strikeouts and no walks this spring. Tapia still has a minor league option year remaining, so the Friars could bounce him between San Diego and Triple-A El Paso throughout the season.

Báez has pitched at the MLB level in three of the last four seasons. The bulk of that came in 2019, when he made 24 appearances. Báez pitched only twice in the majors last year. He threw 21 1/3 innings for El Paso, allowing an 8.44 ERA while walking a huge 16.7% of opposing hitters. The Padres will now have a week to deal him or put him on waivers.

Morejón is now officially out until the end of May. He returned from Tommy John surgery to make 26 appearances out of the bullpen last season. Elbow soreness cropped back up this spring, an alarming development considering that history. Initial imaging didn’t reveal any structural damage, with the club first calling the issue inflammation. Terming it a sprain — which inherently involves some stretching of the ligament — is a little more concerning and will keep him out of action for a while.

Padres’ Third Base Coach Matt Williams Taking Leave Of Absence After Colon Cancer Diagnosis

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Padres third base coach Matt Williams will step away from the team for an undetermined amount of time following tomorrow’s Opening Day festivities. Skipper Bob Melvin informed reporters (including Alden González of ESPN) on Wednesday that Williams was recently diagnosed with colon cancer. He’ll undergo surgery to address the issue on Friday.

Williams said he was first made aware of the issue a few weeks ago after a standard physical turned up a low red blood cell count. Fortunately, the 57-year-old indicated he’s feeling well physically. “I don’t have any symptoms, I don’t have any issues,” Williams told reporters. “At this point it’s important now to get it out of there. That’s the plan for Friday, and we’ll see how it goes from there. They’ll test, and they’ll do all the pathology and all of that at that point. But the initial scans were positive in that on the initial CT scan they didn’t see any spread anywhere else. That’s a good thing. We’ll see where it goes from there.”

A five-time All-Star during his playing days, Williams has spent the better part of the last decade in the coaching ranks. He managed for the Nationals for two seasons in 2014-15, securing the NL’s Manager of the Year award in his first campaign. Williams later spent time on the A’s coaching staff and followed Melvin to San Diego over the 2021-22 offseason. He’s headed into his second season with the Friars.

Former Cardinals’ manager and current senior advisor Mike Shildt will take over third base coaching duties on an interim basis. MLBTR sends our best wishes to Williams and his family on his recovery.

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