Poll: Who Will Win The NL Division Series?
Monday is a travel day for the National League. Both series are knotted up 1-1 as they head to the homes of the lower seeds. Nick Castellanos‘ walk-off hit capped off a back-and-forth affair in Philadelphia yesterday, squaring things with the Mets. The Padres had a much more convincing (but still drama-filled) beatdown of the Dodgers to tie that series.
The latter has a couple health situations to monitor. Freddie Freeman and Xander Bogaerts each departed yesterday’s game. Bogaerts’ absence was on accounting of hamstring cramping and came after the Padres had taken a six-run lead. That seemed precautionary at the time, and skipper Mike Shildt said today that the team’s belief is that it was simply a result of dehydration (X link via Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Freeman has had a bigger problem, playing through a sprained right ankle. L.A. manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) this evening that Freeman was receiving treatment; his status for tomorrow’s game remains uncertain.
San Diego looks to have the distinctive edge from a pitching perspective for Game 3. They’ll turn to righty Michael King, owner of a 2.95 ERA in the regular season. Los Angeles counters with the scuffling Walker Buehler, who allowed more than five earned runs per nine this year after returning from his second career Tommy John surgery.
Neither team has named a starter for Game 4. Shildt kept open the possibility of turning back to Game 1 starter Dylan Cease on short rest on Wednesday (X link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). They’d presumably only do that if they lose tomorrow and are facing elimination in Game 4. Roberts has already shot down the possibility of bringing his Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, back on short rest. That very likely leaves L.A. to turn to rookie Landon Knack in the fourth game.
There’s more clarity on the pitching plans in the NL’s other series. The pair of NL East rivals have already named starters for both games that’ll take place in Queens. It’s a matchup between Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea tomorrow. They’ve both had good seasons, though Manaea was a bit better than Nola was down the stretch.
It’ll be a pair of southpaws on Wednesday. Philadelphia turns to Ranger Suárez, while the Mets counter with José Quintana. Quintana followed up a brilliant September with six scoreless innings to help keep the Mets alive in the rubber match of their Wild Card series in Milwaukee. Suárez has yet to pitch this postseason. He’s generally as good as any fourth starter in MLB. Suárez looked as if he’d even be in the Cy Young conversation early in the year, but he was hit hard in September after losing a month to a back injury. He finished the season with a 3.46 ERA through 150 2/3 innings.
Philadelphia will have Zack Wheeler in reserve if the series goes to a decider. New York is expected to counter in a potential Game 5 with Kodai Senga, who managed two innings on 31 pitches in his return from the 60-day injured list last week.
Which two teams will punch their ticket to the NLCS later this week?
What Will Be The Result Of LAD/SD?
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Padres in 5. 39% (3,485)
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Padres in 4. 33% (2,920)
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Dodgers in 5. 24% (2,124)
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Dodgers in 4. 4% (396)
Total votes: 8,925
What Will Be The Result Of PHI/NYM?
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Phillies in 5. 41% (3,239)
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Mets in 5. 27% (2,140)
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Mets in 4. 20% (1,561)
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Phillies in 4. 12% (962)
Total votes: 7,902
Freddie Freeman, Xander Bogaerts Leave NLDS Game 2 Due To Injuries
The Padres hit six home runs in what turned into a rout of a 10-2 victory in Game 2 of their NLDS matchup with the Dodgers, knotting the series 1-1 as the scene shifts to San Diego for Games 3 and 4 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Neither club emerged from Game 2 unscathed, however, as both Freddie Freeman (left ankle discomfort) and Xander Bogaerts (hamstring cramp) made early exits due to injury.
Freeman’s exit is the less surprising of the two, as the first baseman’s attempts to play through both a bone bruise and a sprain of his left ankle has become one of the series’ chief storylines. After going 2-for-5 and even stealing a base in the Dodgers’ Game 1 victory, Freeman went 0-for-2 tonight before he was replaced in the field heading into the top of the sixth. Freeman was due up to the plate again in the bottom of the sixth and L.A. was trailing only 3-1 after five innings, yet he was clearly not feeling well enough to continue playing. Post-game, manager Dave Roberts told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link) and other reporters that the team would know more about Freeman’s status after working out tomorrow during the club’s off-day.
Freeman suffered what was initially diagnosed as just an ankle sprain on September 26, in the Dodgers’ fourth-last game of the regular season. X-rays were negative, but Freeman revealed to reporters that the combination of the sprain and the bone bruise would normally sideline him for 4-to-6 weeks if this was the regular season. However, on just eight full days of rest, Freeman returned to the field in Game 1, though it wasn’t clear until just a few hours before game time if the first baseman would indeed be ready to go.
Bogaerts seemingly suffered his injury while hitting a foul ball during his plate appearance in the eighth inning, yet the shortstop seemingly looked no worse for wear in hitting a solo homer. The Padres ended the frame with a 7-1 lead, which perhaps gave the club a little more flexibility to replace Bogaerts in the field with Tyler Wade in the top of the eighth.
Monday is an off-day in the series, so Freeman and Bogaerts will get some built-in time to recuperate before play resumes. While Bogaerts’ cramp doesn’t seem overly serious, Wade is the natural replacement at shortstop if Bogaerts isn’t ready for Tuesday’s Game 3. If Bogaerts can hit but not field, the Padres can use Wade at shortstop, Luis Arraez at first base, and Bogaerts could conceivably act as the designated hitter.
Shohei Ohtani‘s presence in the DH spot gives the Dodgers no such flexibility with Freeman, as he’d have to play first base if he is to be part of the team’s starting lineup. If he can’t start, Freeman would therefore seemingly be limited to pinch-hit duty, which then necessitates a larger shuffle of the Dodgers’ lineup. Obviously losing Freeman under any circumstance is bad news for Los Angeles, but losing a key left-handed bat will hamper the Dodgers against Game 3 starter Michael King (a right-hander), and L.A. is lacking in left-handed bench depth.
As a reminder, teams can make injury replacements to a series roster, but at a significant longer-term cost. Replaced players would not only be out for the rest of the NLDS, but they also wouldn’t be able to participate in the NLCS if their team was to advance to the next round. This rule is surely weighing on the Dodgers in particular as they figure out Freeman’s status, though it would seem as if Freeman would have to have seriously re-aggravated his injury for L.A. to remove him from the roster altogether.
Division Series Roster Notes: Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Tigers
We’ve already covered some notable roster additions for the Guardians and Mets as the Division Series begins, and the Royals are sticking with the same 26 players used in the Wild Card Series against the Orioles. Now that all eight teams in the LDS rounds have revealed their rosters, here are the details…
- The Padres made two changes from their NLDS roster, adding left-hander Martin Perez and right-hander Alek Jacob and removing Joe Musgrove and infielder Nick Ahmed. Musgrove was obviously out due to his impending Tommy John surgery, while replacing Ahmed with a pitcher gives San Diego 13 pitchers to go with 13 position players. Perez is one of five southpaws on San Diego’s roster, as ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (X link) was among those who noted that the Padres are guarding themselves as best they can against Shohei Ohtani and other powerful left-handed Dodgers bats.
- The Dodgers will go with an even mix of 13 batters and 13 pitchers, and rookie Edgardo Henriquez has made the list of available arms. Henriquez only made his MLB debut on September 24 and he has played in just three games as a big leaguer, but Los Angeles will give the hard-throwing righty a look in October to add some velocity to the bullpen. It’s probably safe to assume that Henriquez wouldn’t have made the cut if the Dodgers weren’t ravaged by pitching injuries, yet the rookie also got the nod over veteran Joe Kelly, who had an inconsistent year but was pitching well after returning from the IL in mid-September. On the position player side, L.A. didn’t include either Kevin Kiermaier or James Outman, so Andy Pages will be the only true backup outfielder along with utilitymen Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor in the bench mix.
- The Phillies will use 14 position players and 12 pitchers in their NLDS matchup with the Mets, with left-hander Kolby Allard joining the relief corps. Allard has worked as something of a swingman throughout his career, and this ability of covering multiple innings earned Allard the spot, as manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com’s Paul Casella and other reporters. “He’s going to probably give us the most length if we get into an extra-inning game….so I just wanted as much length as we could get,” Thomson said. Utilityman Weston Wilson also got the Phils’ last bench spot, as Casella observes that Wilson brings more positional versatility than outfielder Cal Stevenson.
- The Yankees went heavier on position players (15) than pitchers (11) for their ALDS roster against the Royals. Anthony Rizzo is missing the series due to two broken fingers and DJ LeMahieu wasn’t yet activated from the injured list, but New York still has plenty of room on its bench, including pinch-running specialist Duke Ellis. The Yankees appear to be loading up on bats to take on the Royals’ tough rotation and more porous bullpen, which left right-hander Marcus Stroman off the ALDS roster as the odd man out of the starting staff.
- The Tigers made just one change from their Wild Card Series roster, as rookie righty Keider Montero has been included in place of Casey Mize. Montero posted a 4.76 ERA over 98 1/3 innings in his first Major League season, starting 16 of 19 games. This doesn’t necessarily mean Montero will start against the Guardians in the ALDS, however, as Detroit’s pitching staff (apart from ace Tarik Skubal) is very malleable in terms of specific roles.
Joe Musgrove To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove has suffered damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow and will undergo Tommy John surgery, per general manager A.J. Preller. Alden González of ESPN was among those to relay the announcement on X. The club hasn’t provided a timeline but Musgrove is sure to miss the entire 2025 season, given that recovery from Tommy John surgery generally takes 14 months or longer.
The news isn’t totally surprising, as Musgrove has been battling elbow issues all year, but it’s still rough for the righty and the club. By the end of May he was already on the injured list for the second time this year, both of those stints due to right elbow inflammation. In early June, it was reported that he had a bone spur in that elbow, which eventually kept him out of action until August.
He had struggled earlier in the season but finished strong. By the time of that second IL stint, he had made ten starts but with a 5.66 earned run average in that time. After returning in August, he posted a 2.15 ERA in seven starts down the stretch. He struck out 29.1% of opponents and walked 4.1% in that stretch run.
It seemed he was in strong form and set to be a key part of the club’s postseason staff. After Michael King shoved in the first game of the club’s Wild Card series against Atlanta, Musgrove was given the ball for the second contest. He struck out four opponents without issuing a walk through 3 2/3 innings but then departed the game with members of the training staff, having thrown just 44 pitches. The Friars later announced his issue as elbow tightness.
The Padres managed to win that game and move on to face the Dodgers in the Division Series, but manager Mike Shildt announced earlier today that Musgrove wouldn’t be appearing in the series. Shildt stopped short of making any declarations beyond that, but it’s now clear that Musgrove’s injury will impact far more than just the NLDS.
In the short term, the Padres will try to navigate the postseason without Musgrove. They have King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish as their best rotation options, with Martín Pérez and Matt Waldron also possibilities to contribute.
They will also have to get through the entire 2025 season without Musgrove, which should make starting pitching an offseason priority again. Darvish is still under contract while both King and Cease can be retained via arbitration for one more season before they are slated to reach free agency after 2025. Pérez is an impending free agent but Waldron is still in his pre-arbitration years.
Cease, King, Darvish and Waldron is a decent foursome but the club will presumably look to bolster that group. A lack of starting pitching depth was a notable storyline going into last winter, which prompted the club to target that in the Juan Soto trade. When they flipped Soto to the Yankees, they brought back King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped to the White Sox as part of the deal to get Cease.
Brito was mostly used in relief this year. Vásquez made 20 starts but with a 4.87 ERA and tepid 14.4% strikeout rate. He also struggled badly in the minors, posting an 8.21 ERA in Triple-A. Perhaps someone like Adrián Morejón could be stretched out after his solid year in the bullpen, but there would be risk with his notable injury history.
Budgetary concerns were a notable factor for the Padres last winter as well. The club’s streaming deal with Diamond Sports Group had collapsed in 2023, forcing MLB to take over the broadcast as the club received less revenue in that department. That led to the Padres dealing Soto and ducking under the competitive balance tax.
RosterResource pegs San Diego’s 2025 CBT number at $184MM, well south of next year’s $241MM base threshold. However, that number doesn’t account for contracts for arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects San Diego’s eight-player class for a total of $46.7MM. A few non-tenders could drop that number but most of it is going to core players like King, Cease and Luis Arráez, so the Padres are probably more accurately slated to be in the $230MM range before making any offseason moves.
Preller will have to address the departures of impending free agents like Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano and Kyle Higashioka. If the budget is tight again, he might have to get creative in the winter, which wouldn’t be unusual for him. He is one of baseball’s most active decision makers and is seemingly always involved in all free agent and trade talks. With this news, he will have one more item on his to-do list. Musgrove is under contract through 2027 and is making $20MM annually as part of the five-year, $100MM extension he and the club signed in 2022.
Joe Musgrove Won’t Pitch In NLDS
Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove exited his start in the Wild Card series due to tightness in his pitching elbow. Manager Mike Shildt informed reporters today that Musgrove won’t be on the club’s NLDS roster and won’t pitch in the series, though the skipper stopped short of speculating about the righty’s availability after this series. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on X.
It’s an unfortunate development for the Padres, as they are hoping to take down the Dodgers in the series that kicks off tomorrow. Musgrove has had his challenges this year but is one of the club’s best pitchers and was in a groove towards the end of the regular season.
The righty had a 5.66 earned run average through the end of May. He had already missed a few weeks earlier that month due to elbow inflammation and he was diagnosed with a bone spur in his elbow in early June. He was transferred to the 60-day injured list and wasn’t able to return until the middle of August.
He was able to finish the season on a strong note, making nine starts down the stretch with a 2.15 ERA, 29.1% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate. He took the ball in the second game of the Wild Card round against Atlanta and the results were good. He tossed 3 2/3 innings with four strikeouts and no walks, allowing one earned run. But his velocity was down and he was removed after just 44 pitches. The club later announced it as elbow tightness.
Given that Musgrove has been battling elbow issues all year, it’s fair to wonder if there’s a long-term issue that will need to be addressed. Shildt being tight-lipped about it for now, so the full ramifications may not be immediately known. If any kind of significant surgery is required, that could have a notable impact on the club into next year.
In the short term, the Padres will be trying to survive without Musgrove. Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish are scheduled to start the first two games of the series against the Dodgers. Michael King tossed the first game against Atlanta, striking out 12 over seven shutout innings, and will likely get the ball in the third contest on Tuesday. In the fourth game, they would likely be choosing between Cease starting on short rest versus using someone like Martín Pérez or Matt Waldron. Full roster announcements will be made Saturday morning.
Ha-Seong Kim Switches Agencies, Hires Boras Corporation
Infielder Ha-Seong Kim has switched his representation, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Kim will now be represented by the Boras Corporation going forward.
Kim, 29 later this month, is seemingly poised to enter free agency this November. The infielder’s current contract with the Padres includes a mutual option for the 2025 season but Kim is widely expected to decline that $8MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout and test the open market. It will be Kim’s first unencumbered trip through free agency after signing with San Diego on a $28MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season after being posted to MLB by the Kiwoom Heroes of South Korea’s KBO. While Kim was eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs for any amount of money, the posting system comes with a few caveats that don’t exist for a typical free agent such as the posting fee that must be paid to the player’s former club and specific windows during which negotiations must take place.
Without those restrictions, Kim is likely to enjoy a different experience in his second time through MLB’s free agent process. That’s also due to his performance on the field, of course, as Kim has emerged as one of the top infield options in this winter’s class thanks to the average offense and excellent defense he flashed during his time in San Diego. Since becoming an everyday player with the Padres in 2022, Kim has slashed a solid .250/.336/.385 that’s good for a 106 wRC+, 6% better than the league average hitter. He also flashed the best plate discipline of his career this season with a 12.3% walk rate against an excellent 16.4% strikeout rate, and has chipped in 60 stolen bases in 74 attempts over the past two years.
While Kim’s offensive development since coming to stateside ball has been impressive, the main selling point of the infielder’s profile remains his strong defense. Kim ranks 17th among all infielders over the last three years in Outs Above Average with a +21 figure and is the 11th-best infielder over that same timeframe by DRS with a +30 that is only bested by Taylor Walls, Miguel Rojas, and Dansby Swanson among shortstops during that time. Kim’s defensive value is further enhanced by his versatility, as he has shown himself to be a quality defender at both second and third base in addition to shortstop.
With that being said, Kim’s outlook in free agency grew quite a bit murkier last week when it was announced that the infielder is set to undergo shoulder surgery this offseason. With so much of Kim’s value tied to his defensive value, the prospect of a major procedure on his throwing shoulder could worry some potential suitors this winter and may complicate a free agency that otherwise appeared to leave Kim in position to secure a strong multi-year guarantee. It’s a somewhat unusual situation that Kim will now turn to the Boras Corporation, the agency run by high-profile agent Scott Boras, to navigate.
Kim joins other high-profile free agents in the upcoming class such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso in being represented by Boras, who drew plenty of attention last winter as the free agencies of a handful of his top clients dragged into Spring Training. Each of the so-called “Boras Four,” comprised of Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and Jordan Montgomery, wound up taking short-term deals that generally met expectations in terms of average annual value but fell well short in overall guarantee. It’s an approach that’s drawn mixed reviews, with Montgomery switching his representation amid a career-worst season with the Diamondbacks while Snell praised Boras and now appears likely to head into free agency under his guidance for the second time in as many seasons. Chapman signed a hefty extension with the Giants last month in lieu of returning to the open market this winter while Bellinger’s upcoming decision on his player option remains up in the air.
Should Kim’s foray into free agency not yield the strong payday that was expected prior to the announcement of his impending shoulder surgery, it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see Kim opt for a shorter-term, option-laden deal with a high average annual value similar to the ones signed by each of those aforementioned players this winter. After all, it’s a strategy that worked out quite well for Chapman, Snell, and even Boras clients from before last winter such as Carlos Correa and Max Scherzer.
Ha-Seong Kim To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) this evening that shortstop Ha-Seong Kim‘s season is over. Kim later told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The shortstop has been on the IL for over a month due to inflammation in his shoulder, and Shildt revealed yesterday that Kim might ultimately need to go under the knife to repair the labrum in his shoulder.
It’s a huge blow for a Padres club that has leaned heavily on the 28-year-old since he enjoyed a breakout season back in 2022. That year, Kim stepped in to replace troubled star Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop amid a lost season caused by off-the-field injuries and a PED suspension. He excelled in the role, hitting an above-average .251/.325/.383 (105 wRC+) in 150 games while playing strong defense at shortstop. Kim was pushed back to second base by the addition of Xander Bogaerts last year but took yet another step forward with the bat while playing slick defense across not only the keystone but also shortstop and third base as needed.
Last year, Kim slashed .260/.351/.398 with a wRC+ of 110 while swiping 38 bags in 47 attempts. That overall package was enough to earn Kim his first career Gold Glove award and even some downballot MVP votes. Coming off that strong season and a lackluster season defensively from Bogaerts, the Padres elected to switch the two entering this year to return Kim to shortstop. That seemingly set him up for what could be his third straight career year, but things didn’t play out quite that way as the infielder took a slight step back at the plate. In 121 games for the Padres this year, Kim posted a wRC+ of 101 while stealing 22 bases in 27 attempts. That down season has been further exacerbated by his shoulder woes, which have kept him from participating in the stretch run and now will remove him from San Diego’s postseason plans entirely.
Looking ahead for the Padres, it seems likely that the club will now stick with Bogaerts at shortstop headed into the postseason, as they’ve done since moving him back to the position earlier this month in response to Kim’s injury. It’s been a down season for Bogaerts overall as he’s been limited to just 110 games so far by injuries while posting a 94 wRC+ that’s his worst since 2014, but he’s managed to turn things around since returning from the injured list back in July with a solid .295/.336/.430 slash line across 259 plate appearances that’s good for a 116 wRC+. That’s opened second base up for regular starts from Jake Cronenworth, leaving first base available for a timeshare between Donovan Solano and Luis Arraez, the latter of whom also factors into the club’s DH mix alongside David Peralta on days he isn’t playing first base.
As for Kim himself, the shortstop will now head into free agency facing a new layer of uncertainty. While he’s still all but certain to decline his $8MM mutual option for next season in favor of a $2MM buyout, it’s possible that teams could be more hesitant to offer the versatile infielder a sizable multi-year deal this winter due to concerns about how his shoulder issues could impact him on both sides of the ball going forward. Kim appeared likely to be a consensus top infield option in free agency this winter behind Alex Bregman and Willy Adames, making it easy to imagine him landing a significant contract. Between his down 2024 season at the plate and now his impending surgery, however, Kim’s future seems a bit murkier than it did even a few days ago.
Ha-Seong Kim Not Close To Return, May Require Offseason Labrum Surgery
The Padres have had to lock down a Wild Card spot without Ha-Seong Kim. The shortstop jammed his right shoulder diving into first base on a pickoff attempt on August 18. The Padres placed him on the injured list a couple days later with a diagnosis of shoulder inflammation.
San Diego initially expressed optimism it would be a short-term absence. Kim has instead been out for more than five weeks and is not on the verge of a return. Manager Mike Shildt provided a disappointing update on the Gwynn & Chris show on 97.3 The Fan in San Diego tonight (X link).
“He just hasn’t been able to get over that hump with his throwing,” Shildt said. “The hitting’s not a problem, that part’s good, but he hasn’t been able to consistently throw with anything behind it. … We’re still weighing what’s taking place, but right now, he’s not in a spot where we can count on him in the very near future.” In response to a follow-up question as to whether there’s a date at which the window for Kim to return this season officially closes, Shildt replied “there is, and we may be getting there.”
Making matters worse, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (on X) that Kim could require an offseason labrum repair. That’d be a brutal blow as he returns to free agency. The guaranteed portion of his four-year deal is coming to a close. As is the case with most players signing out of Korea or Japan, he’s eligible for free agency despite having less than six years of MLB service. Kim will decline his end of an $8MM mutual option for next season. He’ll collect a $2MM buyout and return to the market.
If healthy, he has a case for a strong four-year deal. Kim’s ability to play plus defense throughout the infield has been incredibly valuable. He stole 38 bases a season ago and has gone 22-27 on the basepaths this season. Kim doesn’t have overwhelming power, but he has gotten into double-digit home run territory in three straight years. He draws plenty of walks and rarely strikes out.
Kim hit .233/.330/.370 over 470 plate appearances during the regular season. He carries a .250/.336/.385 slash since the start of 2022. As of a couple months ago, Kim’s durability had ironically been one of his biggest selling points. This is the first time in his four MLB campaigns that he has landed on the injured list.
It’ll take at least a few more weeks to learn the impact of the injury on Kim’s free agent stock. The more immediate focus for the Padres is on their playoff infield. San Diego has kicked Xander Bogaerts back to the left side of the dirt. Jake Cronenworth has moved over to second base. That opens first base playing time for Donovan Solano and some defensive reps for primary DH Luis Arraez, with David Peralta drawing into the lineup at designated hitter while Arraez is in the field. The Padres called up Nick Ahmed last weekend to work as a defensive specialist behind Bogaerts.
Padres Select Nick Ahmed
The Padres announced this afternoon that they’ve selected the contract of shortstop Nick Ahmed. To accommodate the addition of Ahmed to the club’s active and 40-man rosters, infielder Mason McCoy was placed on the 10-day injured list due to back inflammation while right-hander Jhony Brito was recalled to the majors before being placed on the 60-day IL due to a right elbow strain.
Ahmed, 34, was a second-round pick by the Braves back in 2011 but spent his entire big league career as a member of the Diamondbacks until this year. Ahmed spent parts of ten seasons in the desert, slashing a relatively lackluster .234/.288/.376 (73 wRC+) during that time. He still proved to be an incredibly valuable asset to the Snakes thanks to his elite glovework at shortstop, however, as evidenced by his +80 Defensive Runs Saved and +110 Outs Above Average at the position during his time with Arizona.
While he battled injuries throughout his time with the club that kept him from starting even 100 games more than four times, Ahmed nonetheless took home two Gold Glove awards and was among the better all-around shortstops in the game from 2018 to 2019 as he posted an 88 wRC+ and 7.4 fWAR in 311 games during that two-year stretch. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse starting in 2021, as he Ahmed would appear in just 218 games over the next three years while slashing a paltry .219/.272/.336 at the plate while his defense regressed in the field. Between Ahmed’s steady decline and the emergence of Geraldo Perdomo in Arizona, Ahmed headed into free agency following the 2023 season in search of a new home.
In doing so, he’s coincidentally begun something of a tour of the other clubs in the AL West. Ahmed started the 2024 campaign with the Giants after signing with the club on a minor league deal over the offseason. He appeared in 52 games with the club but slashed just .232/.278/.303 in that time before being released back in July when San Francisco decided to turn towards Tyler Fitzgerald at shortstop down the stretch. It wasn’t long before Ahmed found a new team, however, and he signed a big league deal with the Dodgers shortly before the trade deadline to offer the club some depth at shortstop amid injuries to Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas. Ahmed remained with the club for just under a month, hitting .229/.245/.292 in 17 games before eventually being designated for assignment and electing free agency.
After signing a minor league deal with the Padres just prior to the deadline for postseason eligibility on September 1, Ahmed is now set to join his third NL West club of the season and fourth of his career. With shortstop Ha-Seong Kim currently on the IL due inflammation in his right shoulder and no return in sight, Ahmed can provide the club with additional depth at shortstop behind Xander Bogaerts as the club gears up for the playoffs. Bogaerts was moved off shortstop over the offseason due to Kim’s status as a superior defender and struggled badly early in the year, but since returning from the injured list in mid-July has turned things around with a solid .296/.338/.436 slash line over his last 58 games.
While the club’s infield currently appears to be full with some combination of Luis Arraez, Donovan Solano, and Jake Cronenworth handling first base, second base, and DH on most days, Ahmed could push Bogaerts to second base on occasion against left-handed pitching to give Cronenworth or Arraez a day off in a tough match-up or late in games as a defensive replacement. Ahmed joins Tyler Wade, David Peralta, and Elias Diaz among the likely bench options for the club headed into the postseason.
As for Brito, the right-hander last appeared in a game at the major or minor league level over a month ago, so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been nursing an injury. The righty’s first season with the Padres comes to a close with a 4.12 ERA and 3.72 FIP in 43 2/3 innings of work as an optionable multi-inning relief option for the club out of the bullpen, and the 26-year-old appears likely to enter 2025 poised to fill a similar role with the club going forward.
The Juan Soto Blockbuster Has Been Even Better Than Expected
Last winter's Juan Soto trade was the biggest in a long while -- probably the most significant since the previous Soto deal. The Padres were slashing payroll and didn't want to accommodate a salary north of $30MM for his final year of arbitration. Extension talks never got off the ground. The Padres were about to lose four potential starting pitchers to free agency, leaving them with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and a bunch of questions.
San Diego determined to build their return for Soto around MLB-ready starting pitching. They'd not only shed payroll but directly address the biggest need on the roster. It's impossible to trade Juan Soto and not deal a huge hit to the lineup, but the Padres could mitigate some of that loss by bringing back rotation help. Even the San Diego front office probably didn't envision it turning around the staff to this extent.
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