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Padres Designate Pedro Avila For Assignment

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The Padres announced that they have recalled left-hander Adrián Morejón from Triple-A El Paso, with right-hander Pedro Avila designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Avila, now 27, has bounced on and off the Padres’ roster over the years. Initially acquired from the Nationals in the 2016 trade that sent Derek Norris to Washington, Avila was added to the 40-man roster in November of 2018. At the end of 2019, he was non-tendered and re-signed to a minor league deal. He got his roster spot back in October of 2021 but was outrighted in June of 2022, before getting selected to the roster yet again a few months later in November.

Amid all of those transactions, Avila spent much of his time on optional assignment. He has pitched in parts of five major league seasons but only has 71 2/3 innings to his name at the big league level. 50 1/3 of those came last year, as he put up a 3.22 earned run average for the Friars. His 11.4% walk rate last year was on the high side but he managed to punch out 24.5% of batters faced while getting grounders on 58.8% of balls in play.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to carry those results over into 2024, at least in the early going. He’s thrown eight innings this year with eight earned runs having come around to score. He struck out nine batters but also walked eight.

Over his years as a Padre, Avila has burned through all of his options and can’t be removed from the active roster without also being removed from the 40-man. The Friars will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright.

NL Notes: Pham, Contreras, Cabrera, Garrett, Uhlman

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Multiple reports over the offseason indicated that the Padres had interest in signing Tommy Pham, with the most recent of these items coming in mid-March, when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that San Diego had interest in Pham on a one-year deal worth around $3MM or $4MM.  Opening Day has now come and gone with Pham still a free agent, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Padres still have interest, though they are wary that signing Pham wouldn’t leave much flexibility for future in-season moves while still remaining under the luxury tax threshold.

RosterResource projects a current tax number of around $223.6MM for San Diego, while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has a notably higher projection of $231MM.  It is important to note that these sites and others are only making estimates, while teams have their own internal mechanisms for calculating a luxury tax figure (and the league its own set of calculations to determine the final number at the end of the season).  The Padres seem intent on resetting their tax payor status and staying under the $237MM threshold, so if they have reservations about signing Pham for $3-4MM, that perhaps might indicate their internal number is closer to Cot’s figure than RR’s figure.  That said, it could also be a negotiating tactic on the Padres’ part to seek out a larger bargain on Pham, as the outfielder is undoubtedly eager to get onto the field.

More from around the National League…

  • X-rays were negative on Willson Contreras’ left hand, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat and other reporters.  Contreras was hit by a pitch on Wednesday and didn’t play in today’s 8-5 win over the Marlins, but the hope is that he can play in the Cards’ next game on Saturday, either as a DH or as a catcher.  Contreras already has two homers and a .979 OPS over his first 25 plate appearances of the young season, as he enters the second year of his five-year, $87.5MM pact with St. Louis.
  • Eury Perez’s Tommy John surgery has dealt another blow to the Marlins’ injury-riddled rotation, but some help might be on the way.  Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are each scheduled to make two Triple-A rehab starts before being activated from the 15-day injured list, as per the Marlins’ updates to MLB.com and other media today.  Cabrera already made one 43-pitch rehab start on March 31, and his next outing is planned for Friday.  Garrett’s slated outing on April 7 will be the first of two starts, and his most recent work took place in an extended Spring Training game back on Tuesday.  Both starters are recovering from impingements in their throwing shoulders.
  • Returning to the Padres, manager Mike Shildt told reporters yesterday that longtime assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr. was resigning his position.  President of baseball operations A.J. Preller discussed Uhlman’s decision with Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, saying that Uhlman’s duties had been re-assigned to others over the last few months, and that Uhlman had stayed in his job during “this transitional period.”  Uhlman has been with San Diego since 1995 and an assistant GM since 1996, acting as a constant within the front office even as the Padres have hired and fired multiple general managers during his long tenure.  Josh Stein is the only other person in the front office with an assistant GM title, though Preller said the Padres don’t plan to replace Uhlman in the near future.

Boras: Padres Owner Peter Seidler Discussed Juan Soto Extension Last Year

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2023 ended up being Juan Soto’s final year in San Diego, as the Padres swapped the star outfielder to the Yankees in a blockbuster deal last December.  Given the Padres’ inconsistent play during their disappointing 82-80 season, there was plenty of trade buzz surrounding Soto during the year, and a trade began to look like more of a reality once reports filtered out after the season that San Diego was looking to reduce payroll.

However, some attempts were made to keep Soto in SoCal via a long-term extension.  Agent Scott Boras told Jon Heyman of the New York Post that former Padres owner Peter Seidler had started to explore a multi-year deal last summer.  “Peter called about wanting to pursue [Soto], and there were discussions about wanting to keep him.  And unfortunately, it did not work out because of [Seidler’s] health,” Boras said.

Seidler passed away in November at age 63, leaving behind a huge legacy during his three-plus years as the Padres’ majority shareholder.  Eager to bring San Diego its first World Series championship, Seidler turned the Padres into one of baseball’s biggest spenders.  Players like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Jake Cronenworth were all signed to pricey extensions, while Xander Bogaerts was signed to an 11-year, $280MM free agent contract.

Extending Soto would’ve required the biggest expenditure of them all, considering Soto’s youth and contractual situation.  The three-time All-Star is set to hit free agency this upcoming winter (just after his 26th birthday), and has already posted numbers during his seven MLB seasons that indicate a future spot in Cooperstown.  Soto already turned down a 15-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals in 2022 before Washington traded him to San Diego, and a big 2024 campaign in the Bronx will surely move his asking price even further into the stratosphere.  Boras is sure to seek far beyond the deferral-influenced $460MM present value of Shohei Ohtani’s contract, and seek a new record guarantee in Soto’s next contract.

Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers wasn’t yet a reality when Seidler and Soto’s camp talked last summer, though it wouldn’t have been surprising if a mega-deal had been reached.  As Heyman puts it, “Seidler did everything to win without regard to payroll or tax,” and “some connected to the team say they believe a Soto deal in San Diego would have gotten done had Seidler lived.”  There is also the interesting detail that the early discussions might’ve been limited to Seidler himself, as Heyman writes that “the talks were kept quiet at the time (even to folks around the team).”

Negotiating directly with owners has been a common move for Boras over the years in finding big contracts for his clients, and the agent has explained the tactic by simply noting that since the owners are the ones ultimately signing off on the huge deals, why not talk directly to the person signing the checks?  Unsurprisingly, front office executives and even rival owners haven’t always been impressed with this strategy, as it can be seen as an agent bypassing the usual methods of negotiating with a GM or president of baseball operations (who might have qualms about signing a Boras client for various reasons).  It isn’t known if Padres president of baseball ops A.J. Preller knew about Seidler’s talks with Boras, or even if Preller would’ve had any objections — Preller is a famously aggressive exec in his own right, and surely would’ve welcomed having Soto remain a Padre for years to come.

Extending Soto would’ve added yet another big contract to the Padres’ books, and complicated the plans to reduce payroll that were reportedly in the works well before Seidler’s passing.  The Padres ended up cutting payroll rather drastically in going from $254.5MM in 2023 to around $167.2MM at the start of the 2024 season (all figures via RosterResource), plus San Diego has now gotten under the luxury tax threshold after surpassing the tax line in each of the previous three years.

Padres Tried To Trade For Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo

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A year after spending north of $400MM in free agency, the Padres spent a total of $50MM on free agents this offseason, adding just $9.35MM to the 2024 payroll. Indeed, in an effort to slash the budget, president of baseball operations A. J. Preller made most of his biggest acquisitions on the trade market. The Padres added Michael King, Jhony Brito, Kyle Higashioka, Randy Vásquez, and Drew Thorpe from the Yankees in exchange for Juan Soto and Trent Grisham, and several months later, they used Thorpe as one of the headlining pieces in a trade for White Sox starter Dylan Cease. They also brought in Enyel De Los Santos from the Guardians in exchange for Scott Barlow.

However, those weren’t the only notable trades Preller pursued. Throughout the offseason, the Padres were reported to have shown interest in dealing for ace pitcher Corbin Burnes and outfielders Sal Frelick and Jarren Duran. Now, you can add Luis Arraez and Jesús Luzardo to that list of targets. According to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres made “a strong offer” for Arraez this spring, and they might have been even more interested in Luzardo – at least until they dealt for Cease in mid-March. 

While it never seemed all that likely the Marlins would part with Luzardo this offseason, he was the subject of significant trade interest. The Yankees, Dodgers, and Orioles were all reported to have checked in on the southpaw. Like all three of those clubs, the Padres were seeking starting pitching this winter, so it hardly comes as a shock that they had their on eye Luzardo. The 26-year-old made 32 starts last year with a 3.58 ERA and 208 strikeouts. His 3.69 SIERA would have led the Padres rotation, while many of his other numbers would have ranked second behind the now-departed Blake Snell. With a $5.5MM salary for 2024 and three full seasons of team control remaining, he was an ideal trade candidate, especially for a team looking to reduce payroll while still fielding a competitive roster.

That the Padres were so interested in Arraez is much more surprising. Like Luzardo, he is a young but proven player with a salary well below his value on the open market. However, he was not the subject of any substantive trade rumors over the winter. Moreover, he plays the infield, arguably the only area San Diego didn’t need to upgrade. While the Padres were linked to several outfielders on the free agent and trade markets, the Padres seemed set with Jake Cronenworth at first base, Xander Bogaerts at second, Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and, eventually, Manny Machado at third. That doesn’t leave much room for another All-Star infielder.

As Rosenthal and Lin suggest, the Padres might have hoped to trade Cronenworth and play Arraez at first. However, Cronenworth’s seven-year, $80MM contract that began this season simultaneously makes him inexpensive (in terms of annual salary) yet still rather difficult to trade. Alternatively, the Friars might have been more worried about Machado’s ability to play third base this year than they let on. They could have been planning to move Bogaerts back to shortstop, slide Kim over to third, and plug Arraez in at second. When Machado was healthy enough to return, Arraez could have taken over primary DH duties. Finally, it’s possible Preller simply saw an opportunity to add a star talent on a low salary and chose to make an offer and figure the rest out later. Too much talent is hardly a bad problem to have, and the Padres seem to like stockpiling infielders.

Rosenthal and Lin do not suggest Miami was actively shopping Arraez. However, their report implies that Preller’s offer was enough to tempt Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. Needless to say, Bendix didn’t pull the trigger, but according to Rosenthal and Lin, that was largely because he “feared [the Marlins] could not adequately replace Arraez.” The report does not address how close the Padres might have come to landing Luzardo before ultimately acquiring Cease; it’s not clear if Bendix ever seriously considered sending Luzardo to San Diego.

The Fish aren’t off to a good start if they’re hoping to contend in 2024. Still, they’re under no immediate pressure to trade either Arraez or Luzardo, arguably their two best (healthy) players. Arraez has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2025, while Luzardo will be eligible for arbitration through the 2026 campaign.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports

Padres Acquire Jackson Wolf From Pirates

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The Padres have acquired left-hander Jackson Wolf from the Pirates, per announcements from both clubs, with minor league infielder Kervin Pichardo going the other way. Wolf had been designated for assignment by the Pirates last week and has now been optioned to Triple-A El Paso. The Friars had an open spot on their roster and won’t need to make a corresponding move.

Wolf, 25 this month, returns to his original organization. The Padres selected the lupine lefty in the fourth round of the 2021 draft but he was sent to the Bucs in the deal at last year’s deadline that sent Rich Hill and Jiman Choi to San Diego. Prior to that trade, Wolf had made 18 Double-A starts with a 4.08 earned run average, 29.8% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. He also made one emergency start in the big leagues, allowing three earned runs in five innings.

His numbers after changing organizations were not as impressive. He made eight Double-A starts after the deal with a 4.25 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. Perhaps he was surpassed on the Pirates’ depth chart by guys like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. The Bucs needed three Opening Day roster spots for Jones, Ryder Ryan and Hunter Stratton and Wolf was one of the casualties.

But losing his roster spot with Pittsburgh gives him the chance to rejoin the Padres. Pitching depth has been a concern for the Friars all winter as each of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Hill reached free agency. They added Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe in the Juan Soto trade and then added Dylan Cease, sending Thorpe out in that deal.

They currently have a rotation consisting of Cease, King, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Matt Waldron, with Brito in the big league bullpen as Vásquez and Jay Groome are on the 40-man and pitching in Triple-A. Wolf will join the latter two in that category and try to earn his next trip to the majors. He still has two option years remaining.

To reacquire Wolf, the Padres will part with Pichardo, whom they acquired from the Phillies in the 2022 deal that sent James Norwood the other way. He split 2023 between High-A and Double-A, striking out in 25.9% of his plate appearances but also drawing walks 12.5% of the time. His combined batting line of .257/.370/.402 translated to a wRC+ of 120.

He didn’t crack Baseball America’s list of the top 30 Padres prospects coming into the year but will give the Bucs a bit of extra minor league infield depth. He has played all four infield spots in his minor league career and a little bit in the outfield as well.

Larry Lucchino Passes Away

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Former Red Sox, Padres and Orioles president Larry Lucchino passed away Tuesday at 78, his family announced. Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred issued the following statement in a press release:

“Larry Lucchino was one of the most accomplished executives that our industry has ever had. He was deeply driven, he understood baseball’s place in our communities, and he had a keen eye for executive talent. Larry’s vision for Camden Yards played a vital role in advancing fan-friendly ballparks across the game. He followed up by overseeing the construction of Petco Park, which remains a jewel of the San Diego community. Then Larry teamed with John Henry and Tom Werner to produce the most successful era in Red Sox history, which included historic World Series Championships on the field and a renewed commitment to Fenway Park. On behalf of Major League Baseball, I send my condolences to Larry’s family, his Red Sox colleagues and his many friends throughout our National Pastime.”

Lucchino spent six years as the Orioles’ president, from 1988-93, before spending seven years as the Padres’ president and CEO (1995-2001) and 14 years as the president and CEO of the Red Sox (2002-15). He’s widely credited with the visions behind Oriole Park at Camden Yards and Petco Park in San Diego, both of which were constructed during his time as president for those respective franchises. His 14-year run with the Red Sox included Boston’s curse-breaking 2004 World Series championship and subsequent World Series victories in 2007 and in 2013.

After stepping down from his role following the 2015 season, Lucchino remained connected to the franchise as a partial owner of the Sox’ Triple-A club and the president and CEO emeritus of Fenway Sports Group. A three-time cancer survivor, Lucchino also became the chairman of the Jimmy Fund in 2016 — a charity that has raised millions of dollars for Boston’s Dana-Farber Cancer Institute through various community-based fundraising events.

“Larry’s career unfolded like a playbook of triumphs, marked by transformative moments that reshaped ballpark design, enhanced the fan experience, and engineered the ideal conditions for championships wherever his path led him, and especially in Boston,” Red Sox owner John Henry said in a statement this morning. “Yet, perhaps his most enduring legacy lies in the remarkable people he helped assemble at the Red Sox, all of whom are a testament to his training, wisdom, and mentorship. Many of them continue to shape the organization today, carrying forward the same vigor, vitality, and cherished sayings that were hallmarks of Larry’s personality. Larry was a formidable opponent in any arena, and while he battled hard, he always maintained the utmost respect for a worthy adversary and found genuine joy in sparring with people. I was lucky enough to have had him in my corner for 14 years and to have called him a close friend for even longer. He was truly irreplaceable and will be missed by all of us at the Red Sox.”

For a comprehensive look at the impact Lucchino had in Boston, Baltimore and San Diego, this morning’s pieces from John Powers of the Boston Globe, Ryan Finley of the San Diego Union-Tribune and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner are rife with old quotes from Lucchino and anecdotes shared by those who worked with him throughout his remarkable career. In addition to the Red Sox (who released statements from Sam Kennedy and Tom Werner, in addition to the aforementioned Henry statement) the Orioles have also released a statement on Lucchino’s passing:

“We are heartbroken over the news of the passing of former Orioles president and CEO, Larry Lucchino. A pioneer in the sport, we will forever be grateful for his impact on our organization, highlighted by the construction of Oriole Park at Camden Yards, The Ballpark That Forever Changed Baseball. We join our entire baseball family in mourning this loss and extend our thoughts and prayers to his loved ones and many friends throughout the game.”

We at MLBTR extend our heartfelt condolences to the family, friends and loved ones of Lucchino, as well as the countless baseball fans whose experiences of the game were impacted and enhanced by his contributions.

MLBTR Podcast: Mutiny In The MLBPA, Blake Snell Signs With The Giants And The Dylan Cease Trade

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The recent news of the divide in the MLBPA (2:15)
  • The release of J.D. Davis and its impact on the MLBPA situation (8:45)
  • Recent collective bargaining agreement history and its relation to current MLBPA strife (11:30)
  • Giants sign Blake Snell (17:25)
  • Padres acquire Dylan Cease from the White Sox (23:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Blue Jays make a run at Juan Soto when he hits free agency next year? (33:35)
  • I don’t understand some of the outfielder signings this offseason. How does Hunter Renfroe command $6.5MM when Adam Duvall only gets $3MM? Why would the Twins trade for Manuel Margot when they could have just re-signed Michael A. Taylor? Is there a logical explanation? Or did the Twins and Royals front offices just screw up? (39:45)
  • Do you think that Emmanuel Clase could be traded at the deadline if the Guardians out of it? If so, what do you think he’d fetch at full strength? (43:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres Select Jackson Merrill, Tyler Wade

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The Padres announced their active roster for the upcoming Seoul Series against the Dodgers. As was previously reported, San Diego officially selected the contracts of prospects Jackson Merrill and Graham Pauley. The Friars also added minor league signee Tyler Wade to their 40-man roster, which is up to 39 players.

San Diego placed a trio of players on the injured list. Infielder Tucupita Marcano landed on the 10-day IL. He tore his ACL last August and is nowhere near ready. Pitchers Luis Patiño and Glenn Otto each went on the 15-day injured list. Otto has a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder; Patiño is battling elbow inflammation. San Diego also optioned reliever Woo-Suk Go to Triple-A El Paso. He won’t be on the roster for the team’s series in his home country after allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings this spring.

Merrill, 20, will open the year as San Diego’s starting center fielder. The top prospect earned that assignment with a .351/.400/.595 showing in 13 Spring Training contests. Merrill hit .277/.326/.444 with 15 homers in 511 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A a season ago. That’s impressive production given his youth, and Merrill was regarded as one of the better pure hitters in the minors.

There’s nevertheless plenty of risk with the move. Merrill didn’t log a single inning in center field in his minor league career and has yet to play above Double-A. San Diego hasn’t been afraid of aggressively promoting its top minor league talents in recent years. Merrill should slot between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar in the Opening Day lineup. San Diego is still looking into the possibility of a left field upgrade, as they were reportedly in contact with Tommy Pham over the weekend.

Wade, 29, gets back to the majors for what’ll be the eighth straight season. The lefty-hitting utilityman has primarily worked off the bench over his career with the Yankees, Angels and A’s. He appeared in 26 games with Oakland last season, hitting .255/.309/.314. Wade has a middling .217/.293/.300 batting line in just over 700 major league plate appearances.

He earned a season-opening roster spot with an impressive showing this spring. Wade hit .294/.351/.471 over 14 exhibition contests. The Padres aren’t counting on him to make much of an impact offensively, but he provides a speed and defense element off the bench. Wade can play virtually anywhere aside from catcher. He’ll offer a complement to Pauley at third base and Merrill in center field late in games. Wade is out of options, so now that he secured a 40-man spot, the Padres would need to expose him to waivers if they wanted to take him off the major league roster.

Rule 5 pick Stephen Kolek nabbed a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. He should soon get an opportunity to make his major league debut, perhaps against the team that drafted him. Kolek was an 11th-round pick of the Dodgers in 2018. L.A. dealt him to the Mariners for cash early in the 2021 campaign. Kolek turned in a 3.76 ERA over 69 1/3 innings of relief between the top two minor league levels last season. He tossed 5 2/3 scoreless frames this spring, albeit with four walks.

Padres Select Graham Pauley

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Infield prospect Graham Pauley made the Padres’ Opening Day roster, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (X link). San Diego will need to formally select his contract. They have multiple vacancies on the 40-man roster to do so.

Pauley will join Jackson Merrill in making his major league debut, perhaps as soon as tomorrow morning. Like Merrill, he’ll make the jump directly from Double-A. Pauley is in his second full season as a professional. The Padres selected him in the 13th round of the 2022 draft. That looks like an excellent find, as the Duke product quickly hit his way to the majors.

A left-handed batter, Pauley raked across three minor league levels a year ago. He started with a .309/.422/.465 slash with as many walks as strikeouts over 62 games in Low-A. While he didn’t maintain that pristine strikeout and walk profile upon a bump to High-A, his power numbers exploded after his move to the Midwest League. He popped 16 home runs in just 45 games to earn another promotion to Double-A. Pauley continued to impress, closing the season with a .321/.375/.556 slash in 20 contests.

Overall, Pauley finished his first full minor league schedule with an excellent .308/.393/.539 line in 551 plate appearances. He ripped 32 doubles, five triples and 23 homers. As a college draftee, he should acquit himself well against low minors pitching, but his production was so strong that it put him firmly on the prospect radar. Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each ranked him 11th among San Diego prospects this winter, praising his advanced offensive ability. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Pauley sixth in the system in January — he’d be up to fourth after the inclusion of Drew Thorpe and Jairo Iriarte in the Dylan Cease trade — and similarly praised his overall offensive aptitude.

The 23-year-old picked up where he’d left off this spring, hitting .314/.400/.486 with five walks and nine strikeouts in 40 trips to the dish. He convinced the front office of his readiness to take on major league pitching. Prospect evaluators are less enamored of Pauley’s defense, with reviews on his glove ranging from average to well below. Pauley is primarily a third baseman but has limited experience at second base and in the corner outfield.

He should get run early in the season at the hot corner. Manny Machado is expected to work as a designated hitter early in the year as he continues to build back after undergoing elbow surgery last October. Pauley should step in as the primary third baseman, with Eguy Rosario and Tyler Wade on hand as potentially superior defensive options late in games.

Giants Sign Blake Snell

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The Giants have made another Spring Training strike. San Francisco has officially announced the signing of Blake Snell on a two-year, $62MM contract that allows him to opt out after the upcoming season. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $15MM salary in 2024 and has a $17MM signing bonus that will not be paid until January 2026. Snell will receive the bonus even if he opts out, so that decision essentially amounts to a $30MM player option for the ’25 season. If Snell does not opt out, half of his salary for the second season would be deferred until 2027.

San Francisco adds the defending NL Cy Young winner to the top of a staff that also includes last year’s runner-up, Logan Webb. A two-year deal certainly isn’t what Snell had in mind at the beginning of the winter. The 31-year-old hit free agency coming off an otherworldly finish to the 2023 campaign. Snell’s platform season actually started shakily, as he allowed 15 runs over his first 23 frames. From the start of May onward, he was the best pitcher in the majors. Snell allowed only 1.78 earned runs per nine through 27 starts and 157 innings after April.

Despite the tough first month, the southpaw finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 frames. He punched out 31.5% of opposing hitters, a mark surpassed by only Spencer Strider and Tyler Glasnow among pitchers with at least 100 innings. No other starter missed more bats on a per-swing basis. Opponents made contact on just 64.2% of their swings against Snell, narrowly better than Strider’s 64.3% figure for the lowest rate in the majors.

As a result, Snell cruised to the second Cy Young of his career. He received 28 of 30 first-place votes. He’d won the American League Cy Young as a member of the Rays five seasons earlier behind an AL-leading 1.89 ERA over 31 starts. He joined Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom as active pitchers with multiple Cy Young wins.

The 2018 and ’23 seasons are, rather remarkably, the only seasons in which Snell has appeared on Cy Young ballots. That points to some amount of inconsistency over the course of his career, which is mostly attributable to scattershot control. Snell has walked nearly 11% of batters faced over his seven-plus big league seasons. Last season’s 13.3% walk percentage was the highest rate of his career. Snell led the majors with 99 free passes, the first pitcher to do so in a Cy Young-winning campaign in more than 60 years.

Snell has never been a bad pitcher, but the inconsistent strike-throwing has kept him from turning in ace production on an annual basis. He posted an ERA ranging from 3.24 to 4.29 in the four seasons between his award-winning campaigns. While Snell fanned over 30% of opposing hitters every year, working deep counts kept him from logging massive workloads. He has averaged a little less than 5 1/3 innings per start over the course of his career. He reached the 180-inning mark in each of his Cy Young campaigns but didn’t surpass 130 frames in any other season.

It seems the market didn’t value Snell as a clear-cut ace despite the strength of his platform year. The only other publicly reported offer which he received was a six-year, $150MM proposal from the Yankees back in January. When Snell didn’t accept, New York inked Marcus Stroman to a two-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Yankees took their offer off the table last month and declined to reengage over the weekend.

Given that Snell ultimately settled for a two-year guarantee at a marginally higher annual rate, there’s a strong argument that his camp erred in not accepting New York’s offer. At the very least, he’s taking more risk in going with a short-term pact for the chance to retest the market next winter. Still, it’s not all that surprising he didn’t jump on a $150MM guarantee.

That’s well below the seven-year, $172MM deal which Aaron Nola secured from the Phillies earlier this offseason. It’s also shy of the six-year, $162MM pact that Carlos Rodón landed from New York a year ago. Snell and Rodón are broadly similar pitchers — power lefties with questions about their ability to consistently log huge innings totals — but the former was coming off a better year than Rodón posted in 2022.

It’s possible Snell received similar or better offers from other teams that went unreported. In any case, he clearly didn’t find the kind of long-term pact that he envisioned. That seemed increasingly unlikely the longer he remained unsigned. The incumbent Padres were never a factor as they sliced payroll this winter. Teams like the Mets and Red Sox jumped out of the market fairly quickly. As the offseason dragged along, more teams downplayed the possibility of making a top-of-the-market splash. Beyond the Yankees, Snell reportedly drew interest from the Angels. The Astros were a late entrant last week before balking at an annual commitment above $30MM.

Snell joins fellow Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman in settling for guarantees well below what most people expected entering the offseason. They’ll all have the ability to retest free agency next winter. Bellinger and Chapman inked three-year deals with opt-outs after 2024 and ’25. Jordan Montgomery, the last unsigned member of the so-called “Boras four,” has reportedly continued to hold out in search of a long-term deal. With a week and a half until Opening Day, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to find anything close to that.

It’s yet another huge free agent strike for the Giants, who have attacked the late stages of free agency with a vengeance. After a few offseasons of missing out on their top targets, San Francisco has successfully slow-played this year’s market. Since the beginning of Spring Training, they’ve added Jorge Soler, Chapman and Snell. Soler’s three-year, $42MM deal was around pre-offseason expectations. The latter two contracts were well below what the Giants could’ve envisioned in November.

Snell puts the finishing touch on a winter that also saw San Francisco shell out $113MM for KBO star Jung Hoo Lee and $44MM for reliever turned starter Jordan Hicks. The Giants also pulled off a major trade with the Mariners that sent Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani to Seattle for rehabbing starter Robbie Ray. The 2021 AL Cy Young winner won’t be a factor until around the All-Star Break, but he could eventually add another high-ceiling arm to the rotation.

It’s still a potentially top-heavy group, but there’s now a ton of upside. Snell and Webb should form an excellent 1-2 punch. Top prospect Kyle Harrison will occupy the #3 role. Giving Hicks a starting job despite his injury history and below-average control is a gamble, but his power arsenal at least makes that an intriguing flier. Veteran righty Alex Cobb could be back from last fall’s hip surgery by May. Prospects Keaton Winn and Mason Black are back-of-the-rotation depth options early in the year.

Snell’s late signing date could have him a bit behind schedule. He has been throwing and reportedly tossed four simulated innings in front of scouts last week. There’s not a ton of time to build rapport with catcher Patrick Bailey before Opening Day, but that shouldn’t be an issue too deep into the season. Snell is at least plenty familiar with manager Bob Melvin, his skipper for the last two years with the Padres.

San Francisco’s late-offseason aggressiveness has pushed them into luxury tax territory for the first time since 2017. While the delayed payment of the signing bonus reduces the team’s commitment in the short term, the $31MM average annual value is the relevant number for tax purposes. RosterResource calculates the club’s competitive balance tax number right around the $257MM line that marks the second tier of penalization. For teams that didn’t pay the tax the preceding season, the fees are fairly modest. In contrast to the Yankees (who would’ve been taxed at a 110% rate as a third-time payor that is in the top bracket), the Giants are only hit with a 20% fee on spending between $237MM and $257MM.

The Snell deal comes with a roughly $4MM tax bill. They’ll be taxed at a 32% clip for future spending up to the $277MM mark with escalating fees thereafter. While it’s likely this marks their last major investment of the winter, they’re surely hopeful of being in a position to add at the trade deadline.

Snell declined a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Giants already forfeited their second-round pick and $500K of international bonus pool space to add Chapman. They’ll lose their third-rounder (#87 overall) and another $500K from their international bonus pool for Snell. San Diego paid the CBT a year ago, so they’re limited to the lowest compensation for losing a qualified free agent: a selection after the fourth round. The Padres received the #135 pick for losing Josh Hader and will now get another selection in that range.

Paying the CBT and parting with draft capital are costs the Giants are happy to pay to get Chapman and Snell on short-term deals. San Francisco was comfortable with similar contract structures for Rodón and Michael Conforto in previous offseasons. Both players could walk next offseason for nothing — they’re ineligible to receive another qualifying offer in their careers — but that’s a risk worth taking to continue loading up in a division full of star talent with four legitimate threats to make the playoffs.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Snell and the Giants agreed to a two-year, $62MM deal with an opt-out. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the signing bonus and salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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