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Padres Permit Bob Melvin To Interview For Giants’ Managerial Position

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Padres manager Bob Melvin has been given permission by the team to interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Andrew Baggarly.  “Melvin has emerged as the favorite in San Francisco, with league sources indicating that he received assurances he would be a top candidate before he agreed to participate in the interview process,” Lin and Baggarly write.

Reports surfaced two days ago that the Giants were temporarily halting their search for a new manager while waiting to hear back from rival teams for their go-ahead to interview employees.  Melvin was chief among this new group of candidates, and it could very well be that the Giants were specifically waiting on the Padres on whether or not Melvin would be allowed to speak with the division rival.  Melvin is still under contract with San Diego through the end of the 2024 season, though rumors have swirled for months about Melvin’s future with the club and his relationship with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

By this point, it would seem like an upset if Melvin doesn’t end up as San Francisco’s next manager.  While the official interview has yet to take place, Melvin and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are quite familiar with each other — Melvin was the Athletics’ manager when Zaidi began his baseball career in Oakland’s front office over a decade ago.  Lin and Baggarly note that it could create an even more awkward situation between Melvin and Preller if Melvin didn’t end up getting the Giants job, so perhaps regardless of what happens with the San Francisco interview, Melvin might not be back as the Padres’ skipper in 2024.

Back in September, Lin and Ken Rosenthal delved into the internal issues that have plagued the Padres organization even before their disappointing 2023 season.  Chief among these problems is the allegedly frosty relationship between Melvin and Preller, though both men have downplayed the idea of any discord.  After the Padres finished with only an 82-80 record this season, there was plenty of speculation that either Melvin or both Melvin and Preller could be fired, yet club chairman Peter Seidler gave a full vote of confidence to his management team at season’s end.  Preller also stated soon afterward that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” seemingly putting the matter to rest.

However, many pundits felt a parting was coming sooner rather than the later, especially when the Giants’ managerial position became open after Gabe Kapler was fired.  The past ties between Melvin and Zaidi made the veteran skipper a logical candidate from day one, assuming the hurdle of the Padres’ clearance for an interview could be jumped.

It is possible the Padres and Giants might work out a trade to officially send Melvin to the Bay Area, or the Padres might simply see this as an opportunity for a fresh start.  Melvin leaving for another job rather than being fired, as Baggarly and Lin note, would save the Padres the $4MM owed to the manager in salary for the 2024 season.  This tracks with the Padres’ overall plan to cut costs next season, ranging from both internal financial matters like a manager’s salary to player payroll.

If Melvin was to be hired by the Giants, San Diego would suddenly be in need of a new manager, though Lin and Baggarly cite bench coach Ryan Flaherty and coach Mike Shildt as possible candidates to take over the job.  Best known for his days as an Orioles utilityman, Flaherty has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, and was promoted to bench coach prior to the 2023 campaign.  Prior to hiring Melvin, Preller’s previous two managerial hires were Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, who (like Flaherty) had never managed at the MLB level.

On the other hand, Shildt is a former skipper, managing the Cardinals from 2018-2021 and leading the club to postseason appearances in the last three of those seasons.  Shildt was rather surprisingly fired after the 2021 season due to what Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described as “philosophical differences,” and the Padres then interviewed Shildt for the managerial vacancy that was eventually filled by Melvin.  San Diego ended up hiring Shildt anyway that winter for a player development position, and he moved into a coaching role this past season.

Matt Williams Possibly Joining Giants Coaching Staff?

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Bob Melvin’s upcoming interview with the Giants has only increased the speculation that the Padres manager could soon be taking over in San Francisco’s dugout, to the point that Melvin’s prospective coaching staff might already be coming into view.  According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Melvin “would be likely” to bring Padres third base coach Matt Williams along with him from San Diego to San Francisco.  Williams was a four-time All-Star with the Giants during his playing career, and two other former Giants players are also under consideration for coaching roles — Pat Burrell as a new hitting coach, and Ryan Vogelsong as the new pitching coach.

  • The Athletics are parting ways with bullpen coach Mike McCarthy, Fangraphs’ David Laurila writes.  2023 was McCarthy’s first year on Oakland’s coaching staff, and his first year on a big league staff altogether.  Before joining the A’s, McCarthy spent five seasons coaching for the Triple-A affiliates of the Padres and Twins.

Could Xander Bogaerts Move Off Shortstop?

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While Manny Machado’s recovery from elbow surgery will cloud the Padres’ infield picture for the start of the 2024 season, it is possible the Friars might explore moving Xander Bogaerts off of shortstop as soon as next year, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes.  The public defensive metrics were pretty mixed on Bogaerts’ glovework last season, as he received +3 Outs Above Average, -4 Defensive Runs Saved, and an exactly even 0.0 UZR/150 over 1285 2/3 innings at shortstop.  “Team officials have talked among themselves about the possibility of asking Bogaerts to move to the right side of the infield,” Lin writes, with perhaps even first base being an ideal destination from a defensive standpoint, setting up an infield of Bogaerts at first base, Jake Cronenworth at second base, Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and Machado at third base.

For his part, Bogaerts would prefer second base over first base if a position change did happen.  When talking to Lin and other reporters last month, Bogaerts said “we’ll cross that bridge when we get there” in terms of changing his defensive role, and he had “no idea” if the Padres were going to broach the subject in the coming months.  Depending on Machado’s injury rehab, Kim is expected to handle third base until Machado is ready to return to fielding duty, though naturally any of the Padres’ plans could be altered by upcoming offseason moves.

Giants Interested In Bob Melvin As Manager

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As recently-fired manager Gabe Kapler interviews for the top baseball operations job in Boston, the Giants have put their search for his replacement on hold temporarily, per The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. While the club still hopes to have a new manager in place by the time free agency opens next month, Baggarly notes that the club is waiting for clearance to interview a final set of candidates.

Chief among those potential candidates mentioned is Padres manager Bob Melvin. Melvin, 61, is under contract with the Padres for the 2024 season, meaning that San Diego would have to grant their division rival permission to interview their manager. As unlikely as such a scenario may seem on the surface, it’s well known around baseball that Melvin and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have a contentious relationship and have been at odds throughout much of Melvin’s tenure with the organization, a wrinkle that could make the Padres more amenable to allow Melvin to interview for the role.

While the club indicated that both Preller and Melvin would return to the Padres in their current roles for the 2024 season earlier this month, Baggarly relays that Melvin is “expected” to be open to the opportunity to interview with the Giants, if granted permission to do so by the Padres. Melvin, of course, has significant ties to the Bay Area after managing the Oakland A’s for eleven seasons, from 2011 to 2021. During his tenure with the A’s, Melvin won the AL Manager of the Year award in both 2012 and 2018, while finishing in the top four on three other occasions with the club. The A’s ultimately had a combined record of 853-764 with Melvin at the helm, an impressive feat considering the club’s consistently low payroll numbers.

Prior to his tenure in Oakland, Melvin served as manager of the Mariners from 2003-04 and managed the Diamondbacks for five seasons, from 2005-09. Melvin won NL Manager of the Year in 2007 with Arizona, making him one of just eight managers in the history of the award to win in both leagues. For his managerial career, Melvin’s record is 1517-1425, good for a winning percentage of .516.

Melvin is far from the only candidate the Giants are looking into as they search for their next manager, of course. Baggarly notes that former Giants hitting coach Donnie Ecker, who is currently the offensive coordinator for the Rangers, is another name the Giants are currently waiting on with the Rangers still in the midst of a postseason push, while Mariners bullpen and quality control coach Stephen Vogt is already known to have interviewed for the role. San Francisco has also interviewed several internal candidates, including interim manager Kai Correa and assistant coach Alyssa Nakken, who became the first known woman to interview for a big league managerial job.

21 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the offseason quickly approaching, a number of players elect minor league free agency on a regular basis. Separate from MLB free agents, who reach free agency five days after the World Series by accumulating six years of service time in the big leagues, eligible minor league players can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season comes to a close. Each of these players were outrighted off of their organization’s 40-man roster at some point during the season and either have been outrighted previously in their career or have the service time necessary to reach free agency since they were not added back to their former club’s rosters. For these players, reaching free agency is the expected outcome, and there will surely be more in the coming weeks. Here at MLBTR, we’ll provide occasional updates as players continue to elect minor league free agency.

Here is the next batch, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

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Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Yuki Matsui To Explore Signing With MLB Teams

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Star closer Yuki Matsui looks to be interested in a potential move to Major League Baseball, as a Yahoo Japan report (Japanese language link) indicates that Matsui has exercised his international free agent rights, as well as his rights to freely negotiate with other Nippon Professional Baseball clubs.

Matsui doesn’t turn 28 until later this month, but he has already accumulated 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.  As a result, the left-hander is a full free agent, and can be signed by MLB teams without an additional posting fee to the Eagles.  His age and experience also make him exempt from MLB’s international bonus pool structure.

It isn’t necessarily a sure thing that Matsui is headed to North America, as the Eagles are reportedly set to offer him a four-year contract worth $1.6 billion yen (roughly $10.7MM in USD) to remain in the fold.  However, Matsui has hired WME’s Bryan Minniti as an agent, which could hint that the southpaw is more interested in seeing what Major League teams have to offer.  Minniti has recently moved into the representation arena after a long front office career that included stints as an assistant GM with the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

At least nine Major League clubs have already scouted Matsui, including the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees.  It isn’t surprising that there is significant interest in a pitcher who is hitting the market at such a relatively young age, and who has already amassed such an impressive resume in Nippon Professional Baseball and on the international stage.  Matsui was a member of Japan’s championship team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though he only made one appearance during the tournament, throwing a scoreless inning.

Over 501 career games with the Eagles, Matsui has a 2.40 ERA and 236 saves, and the five-time NPB All-Star is the youngest player in league history to reach the 200-save threshold.  He has worked out of the bullpen for almost his entire career, except for his 2014 rookie season and during a brief return to rotation work during the pandemic-affected 2020 NPB season.  Matsui’s usage has also been somewhat impacted by the Eagles’ struggles, as the team has mostly posted mostly losing records during the southpaw’s tenure.  With a 10.9% walk rate over his career in Japan, control has occasionally been an issue for Matsui, though his 31.85% strikeout rate indicates that his ability to miss bats isn’t in question.

Readers of MLBTR’s NPB Players To Watch feature are quite familiar with Matsui’s name, as Dai Takegami Podziewski had frequently highlighted the closer throughout the 2023 season.  Matsui had a dominant 1.57 ERA over 57 1/3 innings for the Eagles this season, and Dai noted that Matsui made the splitter a much heavier part of his pitching arsenal, perhaps as a bit of a showcase for MLB evaluators.

However, Matsui’s small role in the WBC could have been due to reported difficulty he had throwing the WBC ball, which was larger than the standard ball used in NPB play and closer to the type of baseball used in the majors.  More broadly, Matsui has a relatively small frame (5’8″ and 167 pounds), so scouts may have concerns over how he might hold up over the long term, even if he has been pretty durable during his time with the Eagles.

This winter’s market for left-handed relievers has some interesting names, headlined by ace closer Josh Hader.  Matsui immediately becomes an intriguing new name in this group, as at least a candidate for high-leverage innings if perhaps not strictly a saves specialist.

West Notes: Moreno, Sánchez, Angels

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Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno was removed from Game 3 of the NLCS in the fifth inning with a right hand contusion, the team confirmed. The D-backs will hope the injury doesn’t prove to be more serious.

Moreno was hit on the hand with a foul tip bunt, and while he initially remained in the game, he was replaced with a pinch hitter before his next at-bat. This is the second time Moreno has exited a game early this postseason, the first coming when he was hit in the head by Brice Turang’s backswing during the Wild Card round. Fortunately, that incident didn’t lead to a concussion, and the young catcher was back on the field for Arizona’s next game. He has played in all five of the Diamondbacks’ postseason matchups thus far.

The 23-year-old catcher is enjoying a breakout season, proving himself to be a strong defensive player and a capable hitter. He improved at the plate as the year went on, too, batting .313 with an .894 OPS after the All-Star break.

In other news from the West divisions…

  • Gary Sánchez is set to reach free agency after the World Series, but the Padres are reportedly interested in bringing him back, and the interest appears to be mutual, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The 30-year-old had a difficult year at the plate in 2022, but he bounced back this season after the Padres claimed him on waivers in May. In 72 games with San Diego, he hit 19 home runs and posted a .792 OPS before a wrist fracture ended his season in early September.
  • Sarah Valenzuela of the Los Angeles Times named Angels infield coach Benji Gil as a potential managerial candidate, reporting that the Angels have expressed interest in him as their next manager. Valenzuela also included Buck Showalter on the list of candidates, although that comes as less of a revelation; the team’s interest in Showalter has already been widely reported. Gil has been a coach in the majors for the past two seasons, and he served as the manager for Team Mexico in the 2020 Summer Olympics and the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres are on the shortlist for the league’s most disappointing team in 2023. They came up shy of the postseason despite a star-studded roster that entered the year with championship aspirations. They’ll make another run at competing next season, albeit with newfound payroll questions that suggest they’ll probably lose the presumptive NL Cy Young winner and their elite closer to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Nick Martinez; if club declines, Martinez holds two-year, $16MM player option
  • Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Michael Wacha; if club declines, Wacha has respective $6.5MM, $6MM and $6MM player options through 2026
  • RHP Seth Lugo holds $7.5MM player option
  • DH Matt Carpenter holds $5.5MM player option

Other Financial Commitments

  • Owe $24.5MM to Red Sox through 2025 as condition of Eric Hosmer trade

2024 financial commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $134.76MM
Total future commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $1.232 billion

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Hill, Nola, Morejón

Free Agents

A late-September tear against mostly bad teams nudged the Padres past .500. That’s no consolation for a club that entered the year as co-favorites in the NL West alongside the Dodgers and a trendy World Series pick. San Diego had bolstered last year’s NLCS squad with another massive contract, signing Xander Bogaerts for 11 years and $280MM. With Fernando Tatis Jr. returning from last year’s wrist surgery/PED suspension, everything was supposed to come together in 2023.

If the team ever really clicked, it didn’t happen until they were buried in the standings. As was the case two years ago, the Padres’ disappointing finish came with reports of internal strife. In 2021, clubhouse discord contributed to San Diego’s decision to dismiss manager Jayce Tingler. This year, reports from The Athletic and the San Diego Union-Tribune cast renewed questions about the locker room — with a reported rift between president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and second-year manager Bob Melvin drawing the most attention.

As the season wound down, there was some question about whether the Preller – Melvin relationship had become untenable. Ownership clearly doesn’t believe that to be the case. After an end-of-season meeting between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the parties agreed to keep the leadership structure in place. Seidler released a statement expressing his “full support” for that duo; Preller confirmed two days later that Melvin is “going to be (the) manager going forward.”

There could be far more turnover with the roster itself. Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune reported last month that the Friars were shooting for a player payroll in the $200MM range for next season, pointing to a need to comply with MLB’s debt service ratio. That’d likely keep them in the upper third of the league but represents a notable cut. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Friars finished this season with a payroll just under $250MM and had an estimated luxury tax number near the $293MM final penalization threshold.

That’ll make things difficult for Preller and his front office as they try to more effectively balance the roster. San Diego’s player spending is a little more manageable than fans might expect given their repeated top-of-the-market strikes. Machado ($13MM) and Tatis ($11MM) are playing on relatively light salaries as part of backloaded extensions. (Machado is also owed a $10MM signing bonus this December 1, although it’s not clear if the Padres consider that part of their approximate $200MM calculus for next season.) The Friars’ 11-year commitment to Bogaerts meant his annual salary is a fairly palatable $25MM.

San Diego’s payroll opening the offseason will be defined by a handful of upcoming options decisions. Matt Carpenter is going to exercise a $5.5MM player provision; Seth Lugo will decline a $7.5MM option in search of a multi-year deal.

The Friars have matching two-year options at $16MM annually on Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez. Given their reported payroll situation, it seems likely they’ll decline their end of both provisions. It’s not an unreasonable amount for Wacha in isolation, but it’d be harder to justify if San Diego has somewhat limited spending room. Wacha would subsequently decline the first of three player options valued in the $6-6.5MM range; Martinez would have a two-year option at $8MM annually that’ll be an interesting call.

If Carpenter and Martinez opt in while Wacha and Lugo test free agency, the Padres’ 2024 salary commitments would check in around $135MM (not counting Machado’s bonus but including the $12+MM they’re sending to the Red Sox on the Eric Hosmer deal). That doesn’t account for a massive arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a record-setting $33MM salary for Juan Soto in his final season of eligibility. Scott Barlow and Trent Grisham are projected at a combined $12MM. That puts the organization at roughly $180MM before considering outside additions. Unless plans of payroll cuts are dramatically overstated, they’re not likely to make a legitimate run at Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger or Yoshinobu Yamamoto the way they might have in previous offseasons.

Given that financial picture, it’s natural that opposing fanbases have speculated about the possibility of a second blockbuster Soto trade in as many years. San Diego doesn’t have to move him. It’s possible to accommodate a $200MM payroll with their existing commitments and Soto’s projected salary. Doing so would require an austere offseason, though, potentially paired with a trade of another notable but less impactful player or two. San Diego hasn’t suggested any plans to shop Soto but hasn’t taken a trade off the table either.

With one season of remaining control, Soto’s trade value is markedly lower than it was at the 2022 deadline. The Padres wouldn’t get near the level of talent — five young players headlined by MacKenzie Gore, James Wood and CJ Abrams — which they sent to the Nationals to acquire him.

The Mookie Betts deal is the most obvious precedent for a superstar traded before his final arbitration season. The Red Sox received five years of club control on a solid regular (Alex Verdugo), a borderline Top 100 prospect (Jeter Downs) and a mid-level prospect (Connor Wong) while also offloading around $48MM on the David Price contract. The deal didn’t work out for Boston. Verdugo never developed into more than a solid player, while Downs barely reached the majors. Yet it’s a general benchmark for the Padres if they were to consider moving Soto. They presumably wouldn’t also attach an underwater contract, so topping a package headlined by two highly-regarded but not elite controllable talents should be viable.

It’s arguable whether that’s preferable to simply keeping Soto for his final arbitration season. The Padres would get one more year in which he anchors the lineup. They could deal him at the deadline if they’re again underperforming, while he’d clearly receive the qualifying offer next offseason if they kept him on the roster. Even if they don’t anticipate re-signing him — Preller unsurprisingly suggested they’ll reengage with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation this winter — a trade isn’t inevitable.

Keeping Soto would limit their flexibility elsewhere on the roster. San Diego has arguably the best group of impending free agents of any team. Blake Snell is likely to be named NL Cy Young a couple days before hitting the market. Josh Hader has a good chance of topping the $102MM contract record for relievers which Edwin Díaz established last winter.

Even with their payroll questions, the Padres will obviously make a qualifying offer to each of Snell and Hader. There’s no chance either player accepts a one-year deal, which would entitle San Diego to modest compensation in next year’s draft. As a luxury tax payor, the Friars would receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for each player if they sign elsewhere.

Watching both depart appears likely. The Padres seemed to preemptively prepare for Hader’s departure last offseason with a stunning five-year, $46MM commitment to Robert Suarez. Between the hard-throwing righty and the trade deadline acquisition of Barlow, they’ll have options for the ninth inning. While losing Hader would be a huge blow to any bullpen, the Padres should have other priorities.

None is bigger than the rotation. San Diego’s starting staff somewhat quietly led the majors in ERA and finished fifth in strikeout rate. That’s in large part thanks to their impending free agents, who were arguably their three top starters. Snell was utterly dominant from June onwards. Wacha (3.22) and Lugo (3.57) each turned in sub-4.00 ERA showings over 130+ frames. Lugo would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Padres were operating at their typical spending capacity. Given the expected constraints, the chance he accepts a one-year offer worth around $20.5MM and the mid-round pick they’d receive if he walks, they’ll probably opt not to make the offer.

Those possible departures leave the Friars with only two locks for the starting staff. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish ended this season on the injured list. They’re expected to be ready for Spring Training. If Martinez returns, he could have a clearer rotation opportunity than he’s had in the last two years, when he has spent most of his time as a multi-inning reliever. The Padres have the option to retain Wacha, although a $16MM salary is probably too much of a commitment to lock in before free agency even gets underway. Neither Pedro Avila nor Matt Waldron pitched well enough to secure a spot in the Opening Day five.

The Padres need to bring in two or three starters. Options toward the lower tiers of free agency include Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, James Paxton, Martín Pérez and Hyun Jin Ryu. Luis Severino is a candidate for a one-year pillow contract. Swingman Jakob Junis could market himself as a starter in search of a two-year deal in the range of what the Friars offered Lugo last winter. The Padres have been aggressive in targeting players from Asian professional leagues. Perhaps they’ll inquire on former Nationals righty Erick Fedde, who turned in a 2.13 ERA over 28 starts in his first season in South Korea.

They’ll likely bring in at least one arm via trade. Paul Blackburn, Spencer Turnbull, Adrian Houser and Cal Quantrill are among affordable arbitration-eligible hurlers who could be attainable. None of those pitchers would cost an immense prospect return. San Diego still has a few names at the top of the farm system (e.g. Ethan Salas, Jackson Merrill, Robby Snelling) whom they could ostensibly dangle if an impact starter with multiple seasons of club control (perhaps Logan Gilbert or Dylan Cease) came available.

San Diego could also deal off the big league team to find more balance on the roster. Barlow’s $7.1MM projected salary makes him a possible candidate, although it’d leave the Padres with very little in the way of setup options to pave the way to Suarez. Grisham is projected at just under $5MM and down to two seasons of control. He’s an excellent defensive center fielder but a .191/.300/.347 hitter since the start of 2022.

Given how well Tatis acclimated to right field defensively, the Friars could consider moving him to center and shopping Grisham. They’d have to bring in another corner bat opposite Soto at that point. It’s not a robust free agent class for hitters. Ramón Laureano, Harold Ramírez and Dylan Carlson are among the trade possibilities if the Padres wanted to search for more offensive upside than Grisham provides without taking on notable salary. Were the Padres to move Soto, they’d have to take a bigger swing in the outfield — whether a trade candidate like Anthony Santander or a free agent pursuit of KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.

Their last pursuit of a hitter from South Korea worked out excellently. Ha-Seong Kim is headed into the final season of a four-year, $28MM free agent deal. He’s a plus defender who can move around the infield and has hit .256/.338/.391 over the last two years. Kim would be an in-demand trade candidate if San Diego made him available. Between his affordability and a dreadful free agent class for middle infielders, Kim would be the Padres’ most desirable realistic trade candidate aside from Soto.

Dealing Kim would open up second base for Jake Cronenworth, who is miscast at first. Yet it’d also subtract one of the Padres’ best position players without clearing a huge chunk of payroll space. While Preller and his staff probably won’t foreclose the possibility entirely, the price would be high.

If they hold Kim, he’d likely return to the keystone. Machado and Bogaerts are the presumptive left side infield. Machado could be delayed early in the season as he recovers from elbow surgery, but he’s expected back early enough in the season the Padres don’t have to worry about the hot corner. Bogaerts recent conceded he might not be much longer for shortstop (link via Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune). That raises the possibility of a position swap for Bogaerts and Kim but doesn’t materially change the infield construction.

The Padres should bring in some more offensive punch for the first base/DH mix. Last winter’s signings of Carpenter and Nelson Cruz didn’t pan out, nor did deadline acquisitions of Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper. With the latter two headed for free agency, the Padres should take another swing at first base. Brandon Belt could be a free agent target, while Rowdy Tellez is a non-tender possibility. Adding a bat-first player would deepen the bench while freeing Cronenworth for a multi-position role.

If the Padres were to take a bigger free agent swing, Mitch Garver would be a strong on-paper fit. The Ranger slugger is a primary DH who can catch on occasion. The Padres will likely bring in a complement to Luis Campusano behind the dish while non-tendering Austin Nola. If Garver proves too expensive and/or receives a qualifying offer from Texas, Tom Murphy could be an affordable “Garver-lite” free agent target.

San Diego has one of the wider-open outlooks for any team. They’re likely to lose a couple marquee free agents but still have plenty of star talent at the top of the roster. They’re certainly not about to rebuild. Yet next year’s roster could look quite different from the 2023 version, especially on the pitching staff. The Padres have been one of the sport’s most unpredictable teams throughout Preller’s tenure. That’s not going to change this year.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Padres-specific chat on 10-11-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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