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MLBTR Poll: How Should San Diego Approach The Trade Deadline?

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When Padres team chairman Peter Seidler recently discussed his vision for the club ahead of the coming trade deadline, he made clear he believed in the current iteration of the club and seemed to have no desire to sell at the trade deadline. That confidence comes in spite of an ugly first half of the 2023 season. In 88 games so far this season, the Padres have gone just 41-47, leaving them ten games back looking up at three teams in the NL West. The club’s Wild Card outlook isn’t much better, as San Diego is 8.5 games back with five teams standing between them and the final Wild Card spot

Of course, club ownership rarely directly makes baseball operations decisions. Given that, the decision on whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline in three weeks will likely be made by Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. A notoriously aggressive GM, Preller has built a star-studded roster with a massive payroll in recent years. Since the end of the 2020 campaign, when San Diego first made the playoffs under Preller, the club has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Josh Hader, and Juan Soto in blockbuster trades while signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal and signing each of Darvish, Musgrove, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. to big money extensions.

To reverse course completely would be near impossible. Musgrove and right-hander Robert Suarez are both signed through the 2027 campaign, while Darvish is signed through 2028. Infielder Jake Cronenworth is signed through the 2030 season, Machado and Bogaerts are both signed through 2033, while Tatis is signed through the end of the 2034 campaign. Between those seven players, the Padres are on the hook for roughly $107.5MM in terms of actual dollars and just over $137MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. With so many big money contracts on the books not just for next season, but for the better part of the decade or longer, trading long-term assets seems both unwise and difficult.

Given the club’s position, it’s possible that the front office will decide to double down and hope the team’s performance will improve in the second half. Suarez has yet to pitch this season and could help stabilize the bullpen upon his return, while each of Darvish, Machado, and Bogaerts are multi-time All Stars with lengthy track records of success; it’s surely not hard for Preller’s front office to talk themselves into that group improving upon their current 2023 performance going forward. With plenty of talent on the roster and glaring holes behind the plate, at DH, and on the bench, San Diego could retain their key players and deal for moderate upgrades to the weakest areas on the roster in hopes of things improving during the season’s final two months.

On the other hand, the club could look to retool for the future. Snell and Hader would immediately be among the most coveted rental arms on the market if the Padres listened on the pair, while Seth Lugo would surely interest a variety of contenders given his ability to swing in and out of the rotation. Lightly selling would allow the Padres to recoup value on their pending free agents and bolster a farm system that’s been raided by years of aggressive buy-side deals. What’s more, it would allow San Diego to take advantage of a trade market with few clearly established sellers.

Of course, the club could opt to take a middle ground option as well, dealing some of their pending free agents while also adding big league pieces with multiple years of control in hopes of giving themselves a chance to bounce back during the second half while attempting to maximize the club’s odds of winning in 2024, Soto’s last year of team control. Such an approach comes with its own unique risks, however. Dealing away key players can have impacts in the clubhouse, as the Brewers saw when dealing Hader to San Diego last year and Seattle saw after trading closer Kendall Graveman in 2021.

With just three weeks left until the trade deadline, the Padres will be forced to make a decision in the near future. How should San Diego approach this trade deadline? Do they need to stay the course and give themselves the best chance to win while Soto is under team control? Should they try to rebuild their farm system and look toward 2024 and beyond? Or perhaps they should try to do a bit of both?

(poll link for app users)

Padres Select Alek Jacob

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The Padres announced they’ve selected reliever Alek Jacob onto the big league roster. San Diego optioned José Castillo to Triple-A in a corresponding move. They already had an opening on the 40-man roster after designating Nelson Cruz for assignment a few days ago.

San Diego selected Jacob in the 16th round of the 2021 draft. A $75K senior sign out of Gonzaga, Jacob moved quickly up the ladder thanks to strong minor league performances. He traversed three levels last season. He struggled at year’s end in Triple-A but was dominant in High-A and Double-A.

Over the winter, Baseball America named the 6’3″ righty the #23 prospect in a relatively shallow San Diego farm system. The outlet praised a plus changeup and excellent control but noted well below-average fastball velocity that sits in the mid-upper 80s.

Despite lacking overpowering stuff, Jacob has thrived with Double-A San Antonio this year. Over 27 1/3 innings, he carries a 1.32 ERA. He’s striking out just under 30% of opponents and has induced grounders at a huge 56.1% clip. Already 25, Jacob is older than the standard Double-A prospect. Still, there’s little arguing with that kind of production, and he’s earned his first MLB look as a long relief option for skipper Bob Melvin.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings and Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Angels Trade for Infielders, Indecisive NL Central Teams and Aaron Judge’s Toe – listen here
  • Exciting Youth Movements in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Bad Central Divisions and the Dodgers Want Pitching – listen here
  • Marcus Stroman Lobbies for Extension, Mets’ Woes and Astros Seeking Bats – listen here

Padres Designate Nelson Cruz For Assignment

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The Padres announced a series of roster moves today, recalled left-hander José Castillo, right-hander Matt Waldron and infielder Matthew Batten. In corresponding moves, right-hander Domingo Tapia was optioned to Triple-A El Paso, righty Michael Wacha was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to July 2) with right shoulder inflammation and designated hitter Nelson Cruz was designated for assignment.

Cruz, 43, has long been one of the most feared sluggers in the league but has struggled over the past couple of years. In 2021, he was hitting .294/.370/.537 for the Twins with a 142 wRC+ when they flipped him to the Rays. That deal worked out very well for the Twins but Cruz slumped after switching jerseys, hitting just .226/.283/.442, 95 wRC+. He then signed with the Nats for 2022 but hit just .234/.313/.337 for a wRC+ of 85.

As last season was winding down, he underwent surgery to address some inflammation in his eye, which he said was impacting his ability to pick up spin on the ball. The Padres took a gamble on a bounceback from Cruz, giving him a $1MM guarantee on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to pass, with Cruz hitting just .245/.283/.399 thus far for a wRC+ of 85. He’s striking out at a 30.3% rate and walking just 3.9% of the time, both of those marks easily the worst of his career.

He’s essentially just a designated hitter at this point in his career, having not played the outfield since 2018 and logging just one inning at first base this year. That makes it especially important that he produce at the plate, something he hasn’t been able to do for a couple of years now.

The Padres will now have one week to trade Cruz or pass him through waivers. It’s possible that some club is intrigued based on his past production and modest salary, though that remains to be seen. As a veteran with more than five years of service time, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment in the event he clears waivers while retaining his salary. That means he’s likely to end up released if the Friars can’t find a trade partner in the coming days.

As for Wacha, his shoulder has been an ongoing minor issue. His start on June 24 was skipped due to fatigue in that shoulder, though he did later take the ball on July 1 and toss five innings. Manager Bob Melvin tells AJ Cassavell of MLB.com that the club is trying to use next week’s All-Star break to give him a chance to fully heal up. He has a 2.84 ERA through 15 starts this year, so the team will surely be hoping that a little breather is all he needs to get back on track.

Padres Chairman Peter Seidler: “We’re Not Going To Reverse Course”

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Today’s 4-3 loss to the Reds dropped the Padres to 38-46, as the team continued to languish in fourth place in NL West.  San Diego is closer to the last-place Rockies than they are to a wild card berth (8.5 games) or the first-place Diamondbacks (11.5 games), and the Padres aren’t exactly gaining momentum, with seven losses in their last eight games.

It’s a very surprising dropoff for a club that reached the NLCS last season, and has been spending to franchise-record levels to continue that success.  The Padres exceeded the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons and are easily on pace for a third, with a $250MM payroll and a projected $275.8MM tax number (as per Roster Resource).  Getting to the NLCS only made the Padres hungry for more, but a busy offseason that included signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Manny Machado and Yu Darvish has thus far yielded mediocre results.

The struggles of the Padres’ first three months haven’t dampened the overall view of team chairman Peter Seidler, who first of all hasn’t written off the Friars’ chances for 2023.  “We have half the season to play.  I mean, much, much stranger things have happened….So there’s a lot of catching up for us to do. I’m on the train that says we’re gonna catch up,” Seidler told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Just because the Padres’ plan for 2023 “hasn’t worked yet….it doesn’t make me lose sleep at night or lack confidence in what we’re doing.”

“I know we’re going to be good.  We’re gonna have every chance to be in the mix for the World Series every single year.  And so that gives me some kind of serious long-term comfort.  We’re not going to reverse course.  We’re always gonna adjust….All my focus now is on this year, because I’m as solid as I can be on the year after and two years after and three and the next decade.”

While Seidler naturally isn’t pleased with how the Padres have performed to date, he pointed to the trade deadline as an opportunity for improvement, saying “You know we’re always open for business.”  While naturally much can still change between now and the August 1 deadline, Seidler’s comment would suggest that the Padres are looking to be buyers, rather than sellers.  Of course, the team might take a middle ground and pursue both routes, perhaps trading some shorter-term assets for players who can help the Padres either in the rest of 2023 or in 2024 and beyond.

As to who could be making these calls on deadline day, Seidler expressed his total support in club CEO Erik Greupner and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

“I’m not afraid to make changes.  I never have been.  But I really value stability,” Seidler said.  “And when I know the person as well and the skillset as well as I know A.J. and Erik, they’re not going anywhere.  Period….I believe in stability.  It is something that is undervalued, generally speaking, in organizations and maybe particularly in sports franchises.  But I’m not for mediocre stability.  I’m for excellence.  And to me, A.J. is excellence.”

“That’s the very interesting thing about professional sports.  You have a couple of bad months and fans or the media say, ’You’ve got to fire this guy.’  It’s crazy to me.  Absolutely crazy.”

Preller is one of the longer-tenured front office bosses in baseball, running the Padres’ baseball ops department since August 2014.  It hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride, as Preller’s tenure has included only two winning records in his eight full seasons, though he did oversee a substantial rebuild (albeit in the wake of an ill-fated attempt to load up on big-name talent early in his stint as general manager).  Even as recently as 2021, the Padres seemed to be stumbling both on and off the field, but the hiring of Bob Melvin as manager seemed to calm things, and San Diego went 89-73 in 2022 before making their postseason run.  Preller received a contract extension following the Padres’ playoff berth in 2020, and his current deal runs through the 2026 campaign.

Seidler endorsed Melvin as well, though as Acee noted, Seidler (like Preller in recent comments) didn’t give a full guarantee about Melvin’s future as the Friars’ manager.  Melvin’s deal with the team is up after the 2024 season, and if the Padres’ struggles were continue, a managerial change might be one logical route of shaking things up, if a larger-scale front office change isn’t happening.

That said, Seidler seemed to disagree with the premise of a true guarantee of Melvin’s job security, asking “What’s the point in saying that?  Bob is one of the great managers in our game.  I’ll leave it there.  As well as being a great guy and as trusted a human being as you’ll ever find.  But we’re talking about a job here.”

Latest On Robert Suarez

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  • Padres reliever Robert Suarez is making progress in his return to a big league mound, beginning a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League as noted by Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Suarez has been on the 60-day IL all season dealing with an elbow injury, but was a key piece of the San Diego bullpen last season with a 2.27 ERA in 47 2/3 innings of work. Sanders adds that Suarez is expected back sometime after the All Star break. Upon his return, Suarez figures to bolster a bullpen that ranks bottom ten in the majors with a 4.26 FIP.

Yu Darvish Scratched From Sunday Start

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  • The Padres will be without right-hander Yu Darvish tomorrow, as the veteran hurler was scratched from his start due to a bout of the flu. Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds that, per manager Bob Melvin, he may not be able to pitch Monday either. Who will start in Darvish’s stead tomorrow is currently unclear, though the club did recall right-hander Pedro Avila earlier today. Avila has made 13 starts at the Triple-A level this season, posting an 8.49 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work.

Padres Make Four Roster Moves

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The Padres made four pitching moves today, including the activation of left-hander Tom Cosgrove from the 15-day injured list.  San Diego also called up right-hander Pedro Avila from Triple-A, while optioning southpaw Ray Kerr to Triple-A and placing righty Drew Carlton the 15-day IL due to right elbow inflammation.

Carlton signed a minor league contract during the offseason, and was promoted to San Diego’s active roster in the middle of May.  Pitching mostly in multi-inning relief situations, Carlton has a 4.35 ERA, 21.2% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate over 20 2/3 frames.  That ERA took a hit in yesterday’s game, as Carlton allowed three runs (two earned) in two-thirds of an inning, including a walkoff homer from the Reds’ Spencer Steer.  It isn’t known whether Carlton’s elbow issue developed during the game, or if he was trying to pitch through some soreness.

Cosgrove returns from the IL after missing only the minimum 15 days with a strained left hamstring.  A 12th-round pick for the Padres in the 2017 draft, the 27-year-old made his MLB debut this season and has made a very solid impression in his first 17 innings in the Show.  Cosgrove has a tiny 0.53 ERA and 3.4% walk rate, as well as a solid 25.9% strikeout rate.  His SIERA is naturally higher (3.00), as Cosgrove has a perfect 100% strand rate and he has benefited from a .158 BABIP.  Still, it’s not a bad showing at all for a pitcher who wasn’t really on the radar for a call-up heading into 2023, but Cosgrove has pitched well enough to retain his spot in the Padres’ bullpen.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Angels Trade for Infielders, Indecisive NL Central Teams and Aaron Judge’s Toe

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • The Angels acquired Eduardo Escobar from the Mets and Mike Moustakas from the Rockies (1:25)
  • The Pirates and Cubs and Cardinals are thinking about their respective trade deadline approaches (7:20)
  • The Yankees’ hopes are hanging on Aaron Judge’s toe (16:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • How do you think the Red Sox will approach the deadline? Will they try to toe the line like last season (which did not work)? (18:50)
  • I would like to know what you think the Padres are going to do? They have numerous holes in that lineup, they are selling out game after game at home? You think major trades forthcoming? Or what? (22:40)
  • What do you think are the chances that the Braves trade Vaughn Grissom at the deadline? What caliber of player do you believe a package built around Grissom would bring in? (25:35)

Check out our past episodes!

Nabil Crismatt Elects Free Agency

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Right-hander Nabil Crismatt has elected free agency after going unclaimed on outright waivers, the Padres announced. San Diego had designated him for assignment on Tuesday.

Crismatt has spent the past three seasons with the Friars. He signed a minor league deal heading into the 2021 campaign and cracked the Opening Day roster. That proved to be an excellent depth addition for the San Diego front office. While he worked mostly in low-leverage relief, the Colombian-born hurler was a quality middle innings arm. He topped 65 innings in both seasons between 2021 and ’22, posting respective ERAs of 3.76 and 2.94.

Between those two years, he worked to a 3.39 mark over 148 2/3 frames. Crismatt’s 21.6% strikeout rate was a couple points below league average for a reliever, but he showed sold control and kept the ball on the ground on half the batted balls he allowed.

The 2023 season has been more challenging. Crismatt allowed multiple runs in four of his first six appearances before landing on the injured list midway through April with a left hip strain. He spent two months on the shelf and only got into one game after returning before San Diego took him off the roster. Crismatt has never been a hard thrower, but his average fastball velocity was down from the 90-91 MPH range to 88.8 MPH this year.

Crismatt has exhausted his minor league options, so a DFA was the only way for the Padres to take him off the big league roster. Because he also cleared waivers while a member of the Cardinals’ organization back in 2020, he had the right to decline this outright assignment and test the open market. He certainly did enough over the prior two seasons to draw minor league interest around the league.

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