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Padres, Dodgers, Giants Interested In Blake Snell

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The Padres, Dodgers and Giants are all interested in free-agent left-hander Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post in a discussion with Lauren Shehadi of MLB Network (video courtesy of MLB Network on X).

Snell, 31 next month, is fairly unique and will likely have wide variances in how he’s valued by clubs. On the positive side, he just finished 2023 with a 2.25 earned run average over his 32 starts. His 31.5% strikeout rate was second among qualified hurlers, trailing only Spencer Strider. He has a decent shot at winning a Cy Young award tonight, which would be the second of his career after winning it with the Rays in 2018.

But Snell has somehow managed to accomplish all of that despite giving out many free passes. He has walked 10.9% of batters faced in his career and that figure was cranked up to 13.3% in 2023. For context, the major league average in the most recent season was 8.6%. The strikeouts surely helped him prevent many of those runners from scoring, but so did a strong 44.4% ground ball rate. But maintaining his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate would be hard to do over an extended timeline, which is why his 3.44 FIP and 4.06 SIERA suggest his ERA was perhaps flattering him by more than a full run.

He’s also not exactly a workhorse, partly due to some injuries in his career but also due to those walks preventing him from pitching deep into games. He tossed 180 2/3 innings in 2018 and a flat 180 in 2023, with those two seasons being his highest such tallies. Each other season of his career has seen him come in under 130 frames.

Despite some concerning elements in his profile, free agents with multiple Cy Young trophies don’t grow on trees and Snell could be just that in a few hours’ time. Earlier this month, MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents predicted Snell could get a contract of seven years and $200MM. That’s based on the fact that pitchers with the potential for dominance can still get paid, even if it’s not a volume proposition. Carlos Rodón got six years and $162MM with a longer injury track record than Snell and never once getting to the 180-inning mark.

That will likely limit Snell’s market to the clubs with deeper pockets, but it sounds like he is still plenty popular. A return to the Padres would make plenty of sense from a strict baseball perspective. The club obviously likes him since they acquired him three years ago, giving up four prospects in the process. The club also has significant rotation needs, with Snell’s free agency coinciding with that of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez. That leaves the Friars with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as the only locks for their 2024 rotation.

The financial fit would be a little harder to see, however. The club is reportedly set to cut payroll significantly for next year, going from the $250MM range to the $200MM range. Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll for next year at $198MM, leaving very little wiggle room. The club is reportedly shopping reliever Scott Barlow and has at least some openness to Juan Soto trades, but the budget is obviously tight. Moving Soto for major league-ready pieces and then signing Snell with the money saved would be one way to compete again in 2024, but there would be plenty of risk in that path.

Like the Padres, the Dodgers have a reduced starting staff. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn are all now free agents. It’s unclear what the future holds for Urías given an ongoing domestic violence investigation, which could lead to his second such suspension of his career. Kershaw recently underwent shoulder surgery and has an uncertain path forward, perhaps having to miss the first half of 2024. Lynn’s home run troubles were pronounced enough that the Dodgers probably don’t want him back. Among guys still on the roster, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both recovering from surgery and may miss all of 2024.

That leaves them with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own surgery rehab, and then a batch of guys who were rookies coming into 2023: Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Nick Frasso and Landon Knack, who were just added to the roster yesterday, but adding some proven MLB arms into the mix is a sensible path forward. Heyman lists them as one of many clubs that are looking for multiple starters this winter.

Their payroll situation is far more pleasant than that of the Padres, as Roster Resource has them at just $142MM right now, along with a CBT number of $159MM. Non-tendering Ryan Yarbrough and Yency Almonte would cut both of those figures by over $5MM. It’s unknown how high they want to take the budget in 2024 but they’ve been as high as $280MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to stay under the luxury tax in 2024, the base threshold is $237MM next year, meaning they have around $80MM in wiggle room.

However, they may end up using a big chunk of that on Shohei Ohtani, with many observers considering them the most likely landing spot for the two-way superstar. Signing a player like Snell would also go against their track record. Despite their big payrolls, they haven’t really spent wildly on long-term deals for pitchers. In the past decade, they gave an eight-year deal to Kenta Maeda, but with a minimal guarantee of just $25MM. Since the Zack Greinke signing way back in 2012, they haven’t given a free agent pitcher more than $50MM.

The Giants also have some money to spend and seem motivated to make a big splash. Roster Resource has their 2024 payroll at $147MM and their CBT calculation at $170MM. They’ve topped out at $200MM in past seasons, per Cot’s, but might be willing to push farther this winter. Recent attempts to land star players have fallen short, with the club just missing on guys like Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. It is expected that they will be motivated to get something splashy done this time around and could be quite aggressive in trying to do so.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi already spoke about the club’s plans for adding to the rotation, which makes sense given the question marks behind Logan Webb, and Heyman says they are also one of the clubs looking for multiple starting this winter. They picked up their option on Alex Cobb for 2024 but he will be coming back from hip surgery. Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling will each be coming off of disappointing seasons in 2023 while guys like Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn are fairly unproven.

Broadly speaking, the demand for starting pitching is high, with Heyman reporting that there are eight teams looking to add multiple pitchers this winter. Not all of them will have the money and/or the appetite for Snell but it seems like general the market conditions could be working in his favor.

Padres Claim Logan Gillaspie

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The Padres have claimed right-hander Logan Gillaspie off waivers from the Red Sox, per a team announcement out of Boston. The Padres have several open spots on their 40-man roster, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary. Boston’s 40-man roster count is now down to 38 players.

Gillaspie, 26, spent only a couple months in the Boston organization. The Sox picked him up from the division-rival Orioles via an early September waiver claim. He pitched 4 1/3 innings with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate but will now join his third organization of the year.

Baltimore signed Gillaspie as a minor league free agent prior to the 2021 season, and he was with the O’s from the time of that contract until Boston’s waiver claim. He’s missed plenty of bats in the upper minors, fanning just over a quarter of his opponents between Double-A and Triple-A. In 26 1/3 MLB innings, Gillaspie has a 4.10 ERA with a much lighter 15% strikeout rate. He’s limited free passes nicely (6.7% walk rate) and averaged better than 95 mph on his heater. He’ll give the Padres some depth in the bullpen, and he still has a minor league option remaining, which gives them some additional flexibility with their relief corps next year — if Gillaspie lasts that long on the 40-man roster, of course.

MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The NL Central appears to be the most intriguing division from an offseason perspective. The 2023 division winner could be selling. The Reds have a positive youth movement that could be augmented with veterans and turn into a real threat. The Cubs and Cardinals have pieces and could do an offseason push to rapidly improve their teams. The Pirates always seem to be a year or two away. What does each team in the NL Central need to do take the Brewers spot on top of the division? Do you see a potential arms race in the middle of the country instead of the coasts? (25:10)
  • Do the Angels have a chance for Cody Bellinger or one of the top pitchers? (29:50)
  • Could you explain why any team would trade something of value for Jonathan India? He’s been one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball both of the last two years (according to both DRS and OAA), plus he’s been a below average hitter by wRC+ both years? He’s also had injury concerns both years. Maybe I’m wrong, but wouldn’t just about any contender aim higher than him as a starting second baseman? (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

Padres Owner Peter Seidler Passes Away

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The Padres have announced that owner and chairman Peter Seidler has passed away at the age of 63.

“The Padres organization mourns the passing of our beloved Chairman and owner, Peter Seidler,” said Padres CEO Erik Greupner. “Today, our love and prayers encircle Peter’s family as they grieve the loss of an extraordinary husband, father, son, brother, uncle, and friend. Peter was a kind and generous man who was devoted to his wife, children, and extended family. He also consistently exhibited heartfelt compassion for others, especially those less fortunate. His impact on the city of San Diego and the baseball world will be felt for generations. His generous spirit is now firmly embedded in the fabric of the Padres. Although he was our Chairman and owner, Peter was at his core a Padres fan. He will be dearly missed.”

The club also announced that they will open the Home Plate Gate at Petco Park beginning this afternoon for those who wish to gather to pay their respects. Free parking will be available at Tailgate Lot. Seidler has been battling an illness for months but his family has requested that the cause of death remain private at this time, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Seidler bought a majority stake of the Padres in November of 2020. He was already part of the ownership group but was approved at that time by the 29 other owners to be the control person in San Diego. By doing so, he was following in the footsteps of his grandfather Walter O’Malley, who owned the Dodgers from 1950 to 1979 and moved them from Brooklyn to Los Angeles.

Once he took control of the Padres, Seidler quickly earned a reputation as one of the boldest and most aggressive owners in the sport. Per the calculations of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Padres spent much of the first 20 years of this century with payrolls near the bottom of the league and never higher than the middle. But they have been in the top 10 in each of the past three seasons, getting as high as third in 2023. That period has seen them five nine-figure deals to star players like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Joe Musgrove while also making headline-grabbing trades for Juan Soto and Yu Darvish.

The on-field results have been mixed. After making the postseason in 2020, the Friars had high hopes for 2021 but disappointed with a 79-83 record. They finally broke through in 2022, going 89-73 and making the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They knocked off the Mets and the Dodgers in the postseason before getting eliminated by the Phillies in the NLCS.

2023 was another disappointment, as the club slid to 82-80 and just missed the playoffs. But on the heels of the 2022 campaign and more spending coming into the year, excitement in San Diego was clearly at a high. 2023 saw the club set a franchise record for attendance, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. However, it appears that the club’s momentum was fading as the 2023-2024 offseason approached.

The ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, which operates Bally Sports regional networks, led to Major League Baseball taking over the club’s broadcasts in May. The club reportedly took out a $50MM loan to cover payroll during the season and were reportedly planning to reduce spending this winter. That has led to widespread speculation that the club would consider trading a star like Soto as a cost-cutting move.

It was reported by multiple outlets in September, including the Associated Press, that Seidler was a two-time cancer survivor and he underwent an unspecified medical procedure at that time. It’s unknown if the internal structure of the club changed in recent months with Seidler’s ongoing health situation, but regardless, questions will eventually have to be answered about who is now calling the shots and what the club’s path forward is.

Those questions can be left for another day. Today, the baseball world is mourning an owner who seemed beloved in all corners of the sport. In a few short years, he turned the Padres from a basement-dwelling afterthought into a star-laden club that gave the residents of San Diego pride and excitement. We at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in sending our condolences to his family, friends and loved ones.

Padres Select Jairo Iriarte, Outright Reiss Knehr

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The Padres have added pitching prospect Jairo Iriarte to the 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. In a corresponding transaction, right-hander Reiss Knehr has been outrighted off the roster. San Diego’s 40-man count remains at 34.

Iriarte, a 6’2″ right-hander, had a breakout campaign in 2023. The Venezuela native divided the year across High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio. Working mostly as a starter, he pitched to a 3.49 ERA in 90 1/3 innings over 27 appearances. Iriarte fanned almost a third of opposing hitters while working against generally older competition.

The 21-year-old also walked nearly 12% of batters faced. He clearly still needs to develop as a strike-thrower, but his arsenal has impressed evaluators. Baseball America slotted him fifth among San Diego prospects midseason. He would certainly have been selected in the Rule 5, making this an easy call for the front office.

Knehr has spent the past two and a half seasons as a depth starter for the Friars. He has a 5.96 ERA in 48 1/3 big league innings. The Fordham product owns a 5.54 ERA in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. Knehr underwent Tommy John surgery in July and is likely to miss a good portion of the 2024 season.

Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

Padres Exploring Scott Barlow Trades

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The Padres are “actively trying to move” right-hander Scott Barlow in trade talks with other teams, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  The arbitration-eligible Barlow is projected to earn $7.1MM in 2024, and with Friday’s non-tender deadline looming, the Friars are seeing what they can get for the reliever before having to make a decision on his roster status.

Barlow didn’t make MLBTR’s recent list of non-tender candidates, though it stands to reason that San Diego might consider cutting the 30-year-old entirely if they can’t find an acceptable trade.  While losing Barlow for nothing is obviously not an ideal outcome for the team, it would represent some noteworthy savings for a Padres club that is reportedly aiming to get their payroll to around the $200MM range in 2024, down from $249MM last season.  The $7.1MM price point could also be high for other teams, yet non-tendering Barlow altogether is still a somewhat unlikely outcome given the probable interest in his services, not to mention the fact that Padres could still shop him after Friday.

This will be Barlow’s third and final trip through the arbitration process before hitting free agency next winter, and the righty’s salaries have been elevated by the saves accumulated when he was the Royals’ closer in 2021-22.  Barlow posted a 2.30 ERA, 40 saves (in 50 chances), a 28.2% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate over 148 2/3 innings in those two seasons, earning a reputation as one of baseball’s more underrated relievers.  It also made him a popular trade candidate, though Barlow wasn’t actually dealt until Kansas City sent him to San Diego at the last trade deadline, and a case can be made that the Royals didn’t sell at the high point of Barlow’s value.

Over 38 2/3 innings with K.C. in 2023, Barlow’s ERA spiked to 5.35, in large part due to a walk rate that surged to 12.5%.  The downturn cost Barlow his closer’s job, and the Padres’ trade package of pitching prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams is certainly less than what the Royals would’ve received had they moved Barlow last offseason.  The move to San Diego seemed to turn Barlow’s fortunes around, as he cut back on the walks and delivered a 3.07 ERA over 29 1/3 frames in a Friars uniform.

All in all, Barlow finished with a 4.37 ERA over 68 total innings in 2023, with a 3.94 SIERA and a pretty impressive overall set of Statcast numbers, except for his mediocre walk rate.  Concerns over his control still exist, and Barlow’s average fastball velocity has dropped from 95.4mph in 2021 to 93.1mph in 2023, though his straight four-seamer has become only his third-most prominent pitch over the last two seasons.  Still, teams eager for bullpen help could certainly have interest in Barlow’s services, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a trade completed prior to Friday.

If Barlow was moved, of course, it would leave another hole in the Padres’ bullpen.  Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, and Luis Garcia are all free agents, leaving Robert Suarez as the top closing option and Barlow as the top candidate for set-up work.  The Padres could perhaps pivot to exploring only lower-cost options on the reliever market, though that puts extra pressure on the front office to make up those lost innings with some hidden-gem type of acquisitions.

Phil Nevin Reportedly A Finalist For Padres' Managerial Role

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The Padres reportedly have former Angels manager Phil Nevin among the finalists for their managerial position, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Nevin, 52, was hired as third base coach in Anaheim prior to the 2022 season but became the club’s interim manager early in June of that year following the firing of Joe Maddon. Nevin continued as the club’s interim manager for the remainder of the season and the club decided to retain him in the role for 2023. Ultimately, however, the sides parted ways at the conclusion of the regular season. Anaheim found their replacement for Nevin last week, hiring Ron Washington away from his role as third base coach for the Braves.

Upon former Padres manager Bob Melvin’s departure to manage the division rival Giants, Nevin quickly became a candidate linked to San Diego’s managerial vacancy. Reports indicated late last week that Nevin had interviewed with the Padres for the role, and now Morosi’s report places Nevin as a potential finalist for the position. That being said, Nevin is far from the only finalist with a chance to be San Diego’s next manager. A pair of internal candidates in bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt interviewed for the position shortly after Melvin’s departure and have long been seen as likely favorites to ultimately land the role. Shildt, in particular, has been linked to the role very frequently in recent weeks as an experienced skipper with four seasons at the helm of the Cardinals under his belt.

Brewers Have Interest In Mike Shildt For Managerial Vacancy

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Mike Shildt is considered one of the favorites to be the Padres’ next manager, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that if San Diego doesn’t make the hire, the Brewers would have interest in Shildt for their own managerial vacancy. Shildt and bench coach Ryan Flaherty are thought to be the two top candidates in San Diego, though there is a bit of fluidity to the situation.  Shildt, Flaherty, and Angels infield coach Benji Gil were thought to be the final three (Carlos Mendoza was also a finalist before he was hired by the Mets) candidates, but the Padres have since interviewed Phil Nevin and also reportedly have some interest in ex-Cubs skipper David Ross.

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes that “Padres are expected to” make their decision on a new manager by the middle of the week, so the Brewers should know soon about Shildt’s availability.  The Brew Crew didn’t want to fully explore other candidates until Craig Counsell had made his decision, but after Counsell shocked the baseball world by supplanting Ross as the Cubs’ dugout boss, the Brewers now have a preliminary candidate list that included six names.  Joe Espada was on the list but has now been hired by the Astros as their new manager, so Shildt’s inclusion might keep the field at six for now.  Milwaukee has plenty of intra-division familiarity with Shildt, as he managed the Cardinals from 2018-21 before joining the Padres in an advisory role.

Giants Add Ryan Christenson, Pat Burrell To Coaching Staff

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The Giants announced some additions to their coaching staff in year one under Bob Melvin. Longtime Melvin lieutenant Ryan Christenson joins as bench coach, while former MLB outfielder Pat Burrell is taking over as hitting coach. Matt Williams is also leaving the Padres to take over as third base coach.

Incumbent hitting coach Justin Viele will retain his title, tweets Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. He and Burrell are co-hitting coaches, while Pedro Guerrero is returning as an assistant hitting coach. According to Pavlovic, assistant hitting coach Dustin Lind will not be back in 2024.

San Francisco also announced a few holdovers from last year’s group. Mark Hallberg, Alyssa Nakken, J.P. Martinez and Taria Uematsu are all returning to the staff. Hallberg is moving across the diamond from third base to first base coach. Martinez remains an assistant pitching coach, while Nakken and Uematsu are assistant coaches.

None of the additions are surprising, as all three had been rumored to join the staff. Christenson’s strong relationship with Melvin has led him from Oakland to San Diego and back to the Bay Area. He worked as a bench coach in Oakland and San Diego and spent this year as the associate manager for the Friars.

Burrell, a former number one overall pick, was a two-time World Series winner during his 12-year MLB career. The second of those titles came in San Francisco, where he closed his playing days in 2010 and ’11. Burrell hit .253/.361/.472 with just under 300 home runs in the big leagues. The Miami product has coached in the Giants’ minor league ranks going back to 2020.

Williams, of course, had an excellent playing career in his own right. The five-time All-Star got a managerial job with the Nationals in 2014. He led Washington to a 96-win season to earn the NL Manager of the Year award in his first season. After the team went 83-79 during his second year at the helm, the Nationals dismissed him and hired Dusty Baker. Williams has subsequently spent time on the Diamondbacks, A’s and Padres staffs (overlapping with Melvin in the latter two places) and managed for two seasons in South Korea.

There’s still more to come on the coaching front in San Francisco. The team has not announced the future for pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who has reportedly considered leaving to take a position closer to his family on the East Coast.

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