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Latest On Kirby Yates

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1:36PM: It doesn’t seem like the Blue Jays are one of the finalists for Yates, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that the Jays “aren’t considered frontrunners” for the righty, though Toronto had “real interest.”

10:12AM: Former Padres closer Kirby Yates may be nearing a new contract, as the right-hander is “in final stages of considering offers from five teams,” according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).  Yates has whittled his market down to these five finalists from a reported 12 teams that showed interest in the former All-Star.  Most notably, the Padres aren’t one of the finalists, as Acee writes that the club would have to “substantially” increase their current offer to bring Yates back into the fold.

That stint in San Diego saw Yates develop from being something of a journeyman reliever in his age-30 season into a legitimate weapon.  Yates posted a 2.55 ERA and an exceptional 38.44 K% and 31.2 K-BB% over 183 2/3 innings with the Padres after being claimed off waivers from the Angels in April 2017.  Yates emerged as the Padres’ closer after the Friars dealt Brad Hand in 2018, and he proceeded to convert 53 of 57 save opportunities over the 2018-19 seasons.  Between a league-high 41 saves and a tiny 1.19 ERA over 60 2/3 innings in 2019, Yates received a ninth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award balloting.

2020, however, was a much different story, as Yates pitched only 4 1/3 innings before undergoing a season-ending surgery in August to remove bone chips from his elbow.  The Padres and their fans must surely wonder what might have been if the 2019 version of Yates had been available to contribute to their postseason run, and while there was some interest in a reunion between the two sides, it seems as though Yates will be moving on.

A few weeks ago, Acee reported that Yates was looking for a deal in the range of over $5MM in guaranteed money, plus millions more in potential incentives.  (MLBTR projected a $5MM contract for Yates, ranking him 42nd in our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.)  Even considering the slow-moving nature of the relief pitching market, that would seem like a pretty reasonable price for Yates, given the possible upside he could bring to any bullpen.

There hasn’t been much public buzz about Yates on the free agent rumor mill — besides the Padres, the Dodgers are the only other team known to have interest in Yates’ services.  The Dodgers have addressed their bullpen by re-signing Blake Treinen and acquiring Corey Knebel, but there would certainly still be room for L.A. to also add Yates to the relief corps if they are one of Yates’ five finalists.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Padres Still Open To Rotation Additions, Have Looked Into Tanaka, Perez

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3:02pm: Lefty Martin Perez is another name on the Padres’ radar, tweets Rosenthal. San Diego general manager A.J. Preller played an integral role in signing and developing Perez during his days with the Rangers.

While connections between GMs and players they’ve drafted/signed/developed with prior organizations don’t always carry tons of weight, Preller has frequently shown an affinity for former Rangers since taking the reins in San Diego. Not only did he acquire Darvish earlier this winter, but he’s also acquired Jurickson Profar, Mitch Moreland and Carl Edwards Jr. in past trades and signed Ian Kinsler on a two-year free-agent deal.

None of that makes Perez any sort of lock to land in San Diego, of course, but his price tag seems more in line with the back-of-the-rotation depth role that appears available in San Diego than does Tanaka’s expected price point.

Perez, who once rated as one of the game’s elite pitching prospects, has yet to justify the considerable prospect fanfare attached to his name as a minor leaguer, but he’s a durable fifth starter who had a decent showing with the Red Sox in 2020 when he posted a 4.50 ERA in 68 innings. Beyond the ERA, there wasn’t much to like about Perez’s season: 5.43 SIERA, 6.9% K-BB%, career-low 38.5 percent grounder rate. Perez, however, has yet to turn 30, and the lone arm injury he’s suffered since 2015 Tommy John surgery came when he sustained an offseason injury in his non-throwing elbow on his ranch in Venezuela.

2:00pm: The Padres have already overhauled their pitching staff since the 2020 trade deadline, adding Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in a trio of trades. (Clevinger, of course, is expected to miss the bulk of 2021 following Tommy John surgery.) Despite those acquisitions, the Padres still at least open to further additions and are doing “background work” on multiple candidates, including righty Masahiro Tanaka, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required).

It’s been relatively quiet in terms of Tanaka chatter this winter. There’s been plenty of speculation about a possible reunion with the Yankees, given his dependability and success in the Bronx, but the team’s focus has been squarely on DJ LeMahieu to this point. A Tanaka reunion still seems plausible, particularly if LeMahieu ultimately goes elsewhere. As Rosenthal points out, the 32-year-old Tanaka is no stranger to Padres pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who served as the right-hander’s pitching coach with the Yankees from 2014-18. And based on his track record, Tanaka ought to have plenty of other suitors. He’s also left the door open for a possible return to Japan.

Tanaka started 10 games for the Yankees in 2020, pitching to a 3.56 ERA and 4.07 SIERA while striking out 22.3 percent of the hitters he faced against a 4.1 percent walk rate — the latter being the second-best mark of his career. While Tanaka may not be the ace that Yankees fans hoped he could become when he was initially signed to a seven-year contract, he’s become a rock-solid mid-rotation starter who could deepen just about any staff in baseball. Over the past three seasons, Tanaka has pitched to a 4.06 ERA and near-identical 4.03 SIERA with a 16.9 K-BB%.

At the moment, the San Diego rotation figures to be headlined by Darvish, Snell, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack. Young lefty Adrian Morejon could be the early favorite for the fifth spot, and uber-prospect MacKenzie Gore looms on the horizon as an expected addition at some point in 2021. Still, Lamet missed the postseason due to elbow troubles, and signing Tanaka could help the Padres to limit the workloads of not only Lamet but also touted youngsters like Morejon and Gore. It’s expected that clubs will look for ways to prevent major workload spikes from 2020’s 60-game slate to what is currently hoped to be a full 162-game set in 2021; signing Tanaka or another veteran arm would certainly help a win-now Padres club work toward that end.

The larger question for the Padres could be one of spending capacity. The Friars are already in line to open the season north of $160MM both in present-day payroll and luxury tax obligations. Both are franchise records for the San Diego organization at a time when most other clubs throughout the league are looking to offset revenue losses from this past season. Signing Tanaka would quite likely push the Padres beyond $170MM.

Padres Have Interest In Alex Colome

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Beyond the everyday lineup, the Phillies are also still looking for more bullpen help in the wake of a disastrous performance from the 2020 relief corps.  To this end, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) reports that the Phillies and Padres are interested in closer Alex Colome, joining such previously-known suitors as the Twins and Red Sox.  The Astros and Nationals were also linked to Colome earlier this winter, but the White Sox are now likely out of the running after signing Liam Hendriks.

Colome would be yet another big offseason addition for the aggressive Padres, who look to be challengers for the NL pennant but are still lacking some help at the back of the bullpen with Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates both in free agency.  A proven closer like Colome would only further strengthen an already solid San Diego bullpen, but the Phillies clearly have the more glaring need for relief help.

Padres’ GM Met With Tatis Last Week; No Offer Made Yet

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Jan. 12: Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report that Preller visited Tatis in the Dominican Republic last week. While that might seem to run contrary to yesterday’s report from Nightengale, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Preller and Tatis did indeed meet, but no offer has been made. Passan characterizes things similarly to Nightengale, suggesting that Preller & Co. expect talks to take place and that last week’s meeting could be a precursor to earnest negotiations. The Padres are optimistic about getting something done before Opening Day, per The Athletic.

Jan. 11: Reports of an imminent contract extension for Tatis may be premature. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Tatis and the Padres have yet to begin contract negotiations. Both sides remain amenable to an extension, and they are likely to begin discussions before spring training in mid-February, writes Nightengale. There is no rush for the two sides, however, and it remains wholly possible that Tatis will begin the 2021 season without a long-term extension in place.

Jan. 9: The Padres are in talks with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. about a massive contract extension, Dominican news outlet Pio Deportes reports (Twitter link).  The deal would keep Tatis in San Diego into the next decade, as the extension is reportedly an 11-year pact worth $320MM.  According to both Pio Deportes and NBC Sports Bay Area’s Jessica Kleinschmidt (Twitter link), talks seem pretty advanced, as a source tells Kleinschmidt there is “ink on paper” but the deal still might not be finalized within the next week.

The $320MM figure would make Tatis’ extension the sixth-richest contract in baseball history, dropping teammate Manny Machado’s ten-year/$300MM pact down into seventh on the all-time list.  Between these two major deals, hefty contracts for Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and even the recent trades that brought Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to San Diego, Padres GM A.J. Preller and team ownership are again indicating that the team is prepared to spend at top-tier levels.

Hosmer’s deal runs through at least the 2025 season, Machado is signed through 2028 with an opt-out after the 2023 season, and the discussed terms of Tatis’ deal would lock him up through the 2031 campaign.  It seems quite possible that the Tatis extension will also include at least one opt-out, as since Tatis only just turned 22 years old, he and his agents at the MVP Sports Group might want at least one crack at entering the market (or extracting more years and money in a renegotiation with the Padres) during Tatis’ prime years.

Tatis is controlled through the 2024 season, via one pre-arbitration year and three years of arbitration eligibility.  The Padres famously placed Tatis on the roster for Opening Day 2019, eschewing a chance to keep him the minors long enough for the team to gain an extra year of control over his services — this decision immediately started Tatis’ service clock but gave the Padres more short-term opportunity in terms of getting a star product on the roster to help the big league team.

An extension would essentially make that debate a moot point, and given how Tatis has performed in the majors, one can hardly fault Preller and company for wanting to unleash him on MLB as quickly as possible.  Despite battling hamstring and back problems in his rookie year, Tatis has hit .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers and 27 steals (in 36 chances) over his 629 plate appearances in 2019-20.  This past season, Tatis earned a Silver Slugger Award and finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

There is obvious risk in committing such money to a player who is still so young, and has played the equivalent of essentially only one full season.  That said, it also makes sense for the Padres to take the leap on a player who showed such promise in the minors (much to the chagrin of the White Sox) and has already made a big impact in San Diego’s lineup.

It’s safe to assume that Tatis’ annual salaries throughout what would have been his arb years would be somewhat limited, in order to give the Padres more flexibility in terms of pure dollars while the money owed to Myers, Snell, and Drew Pomeranz gradually come off the books.  If Tatis’ big annual salaries don’t kick in until 2025, that leaves only Machado, Hosmer, and possibly Ha-Seong Kim (at an $11MM mutual option) still remaining on the payroll.

The Competitive Balance Tax is the other interesting wrinkle, as the average annual value of Tatis’ deal (a little over $29.09MM) would be counted against the Padres’ tax bill for all 11 seasons, no matter what Tatis made in terms of actual dollars.  Assuming Tatis’ extension begins in the 2021 season, San Diego would still have some flexibility under the $210MM tax threshold this year, as their current tax estimate is roughly $165.28MM.  Padres ownership also might not mind exceeding the CBT threshold for a season or two if such an expenditure landed the club a “final piece of the puzzle” type of player for a World Series contender.

Timeline Of Twins’ Negotiation With Nelson Cruz

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At the outset of the offseason, Nelson Cruz was said to be seeking a two-year deal, in theory from the Minnesota Twins. Not much has changed on that front, though as time wears on, it seems less and less likely the Twins will meet his demand. Coming off back-to-back silver slugger awards as the Twins’ designated hitter, it would seem a given that Minnesota would do whatever necessary to bring back Cruz, even as he enters his age-40 season. He’s a team leader, a fan favorite, and a standout citizen, evidenced by being the Twins’ Roberto Clemente Award nominee in 2020 and in winning the Marvin Miller Man Of The Year Award for being the player who has earned the “most respect based on his leadership on the field and in the community,” as explained the Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III back in October.

Under a different context, the opportunity to add a 163 wRC+ hitter for two years at $14MM per season would be almost too good to believe. Under the current context, however, the Twins have yet to sign Cruz, nor even has there been much in the way of dialogue, per Neal’s newest piece for the Star Tribune. Neal consulted with multiple sources to provide a timeline of Cruz’s negotiation with the Twins so far this winter.

The Twins made a one-year offer during the opening weeks of free agency, then pulled it off the table after a couple of weeks. A second contract offer was made during the holidays that went nowhere as Cruz’s camp waited for word on the NL. There hasn’t been a lot of back-and-forth negotiating between the sides.

The assumption is there will be no designated hitter in the National League in 2021, which limits the field of potential Cruz suitors, but if the Twins wait long enough, it’s hard to imagine there won’t be more opportunities for Cruz. Interestingly, Neal names the Padres as one NL team that would be interested in Cruz were there to be a DH in the NL. Adding Cruz to any lineup ought to be a boon for that team, though putting him on a Padres roster with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado could very well make the Friars one of the more highly anticipated rosters MLB has seen in some time. Over the past two seasons, Cruz slashed .308/.394/.626 with a monstrous .318 ISO, 11 percent walk rate, 25.7 percent strikeout rate, 163 wRC+, and 6.2 fWAR over 735 plate appearances.

Padres, Blue Jays Made Offers To Tomoyuki Sugano

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  • Star NPB pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano made the decision to return to the Yomiuri Giants yesterday, agreeing on a four-year, $40MM contract (with three opt-outs). Obviously, no major league team put forth an offer big enough to woo Sugano to MLB. At least a pair of clubs did put a formal proposal on the table, though. The Padres and Blue Jays each offered Sugano a contract before the right-hander made the decision to stay in his home country, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

Open Market Notes: Kluber, Twins/Cruz, Nats, Odorizzi

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Add the Pirates to the clubs planning to attend for Corey Kluber’s January 13th workout, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic (via Twitter). The Nationals and Diamondbacks were previously mentioned as two among many planning to view Kluber in Florida. The Pirates don’t seem like the likeliest team to sign Kluber, though he could conceivably provide some veteran stability with the upside of becoming a mid-season trade chip. It’ll be interesting to see how Kluber shows after two mostly lost seasons. Before he ran into health troubles, the 34-year-old reeled off an exceptional five-season run.

Here are a few other items of open-market chatter …

  • Though there’s no evidence of recent progress, there’s still cause to remain bullish on the odds of a reunion between the Twins and slugger Nelson Cruz. The match, after all, has worked out well for both sides to date. In an appearance on the Locked On Twins podcast, Darren Wolfson of KSTP 5 indicated that mutual interest remains strong. But the club and the 40-year-old DH could also be eyeing alternatives. Wolfson suggests the Padres would have interest in Cruz if it turns out that the DH will remain in the National League. Remaining uncertainty in that regard has iced the market for lumbering sluggers. Depending upon how things shake out, per Wolfson, the Twins may have interest in a slate of options that includes Michael Brantley, Kyle Schwarber, and even Marcell Ozuna.
  • Several of those players would also be of interest to the Nationals, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It seems that Ozuna is likely to require too much space on the balance sheet. But Brantley and Schwarber, along with Joc Pederson, are each seen as possibilities to take up a post in the D.C. corner outfield. The Nats have an opening after allowing Adam Eaton to depart.
  • Free agent righty Jake Odorizzi appears to be in position to land a three-year deal, an executive tells Rosenthal. The expectation from that industry source is that the veteran starter could secure a guarantee in the realm of $36MM to $42MM — just where MLBTR predicted he’d land. There’s still no clarity as to Odorizzi’s slate of suitors, but it stands to reason he’ll have fairly widespread appeal given that Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted qualifying offers, removing two primary targets from the market.

Yankees To Acquire Greg Allen From Padres

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The Yankees are set to acquire outfielder Greg Allen from the Padres. Allen was recently designated for assignment by San Diego. The Padres will receive left-handed reliever James Reeves in return, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

Allen, a San Diego native, was traded to the Padres last August as part of the Mike Clevinger deal. The speedy outfielder appeared in just one game for the Padres, drawing a pair of walks, stealing a base, and scoring a run. For his career, Allen holds a .239/.298/.343 line in 618 plate appearances across four years with the Indians and Padres.

Reeves is a 27-year-old southpaw drafted by the Yankees in the 10th round of the 2015 draft. He has a 2.30 ERA across five minor league seasons, functioning almost exclusively as a reliever. He logged a 1.79 ERA across 55 1/3 innings for Double-A Trenton in 2019 with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate, 9.4 percent walk rate, and 43 percent groundball rate.

Phil Hughes Announces Retirement

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Phil Hughes officially announced his retirement from baseball today via Twitter. Hughes last pitched in the Majors in 2018 as a member of the San Diego Padres. While his final 16 appearances came out of the Padres bullpen, the No. 23 overall pick of the 2004 draft spent most of his 12-year career split between the Yankees and Twins.

In his own words, Hughes begins his announcement by saying, “While it’s been fairly apparent to most over these last couple years, I’d like to officially announce my retirement from baseball. Through many ups and downs over 12 years, I look back and am incredibly proud of what I was able to accomplish.”

Hughes took some time finding his way, and he ultimately leaves the game as an underrated hurler. After debuting in pinstripes during the 2007 season, he became linked in many minds to Joba Chamberlain as a pair of promising arms that didn’t pan out quite as intended for the Yankees. That said, Hughes has plenty to be proud of after carving out a successful big league career.

He was prematurely crowned a future ace for the Yankees, but he nevertheless developed as a significant contributor setting up games for Mariano Rivera during New York’s 2009 title run. Hughes posted a 3.03 ERA/3.22 FIP over 86 innings that season, including nine appearances in the postseason.

Hughes would settle in as a starter during a four-year run from 2012 to 2015. His best year came in 2014, his first with the Twins in which he logged 209 2/3 frames with a 3.52 ERA/2.65 FIP and an ML-leading 11.63 K/BB rate and a 7th-place Cy Young finish. Injuries and circumstances may have altered Hughes’ ultimate trajectory, but his emergence in Minnesota became a feel-good story for as long as his health allowed.

In total, the 34-year-ol Hughes retires with 11.2 bWAR, but 17.7 fWAR, indicating his ultimate work level might have been underappreciated at the time. He spent seven seasons with the Yankees and five with the Twins, with one All-Star appearances in 2010. Congrats to Hughes on a long and successful career.

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