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Padres Discussing Eric Hosmer Trades

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TODAY: Hosmer’s contract had a full no-trade clause for the 2018-20 seasons, but he now has only partial protection.  Hosmer has a 10-team no-trade clause, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports, adding another difficulty to the Padres’ attempt to deal him.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 teams on Hosmer’s list are the Athletics, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, and Tigers.  Hosmer also automatically gains full no-trade protection following the 2022 season due to 10-and-5 rights.

JULY 26: Eric Hosmer “has surfaced in recent trade discussions,” according to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The motivation for such discussions seems to be at least partly connected to the Padres’ luxury tax situation, as Rosenthal notes,”The most recent calculation, provided by MLB around the All-Star break, has the Padres over the CBT threshold by roughly $2 million.”  On a related note, the Padres had the Pirates pick up much of the tab for recent acquisition Adam Frazier.

After going 71-91 in the 2017 season, the Padres signed Hosmer to a huge eight-year, $144MM deal, sending a signal they were ready to compete. Since that time, the Padres have only gotten more aggressive, handing out even bigger contracts to Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., along with a number of high profile trades for marquee names such as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. This has succeeded at pushing the Friars into contention. They got as far as the NLCS in 2020 and currently hold down a wild card spot in 2021. Hosmer’s contribution to the club, however, has been mercurial. In 2018 and 2019, his wRC+ tallies were 95 and 91, producing negative fWAR numbers in the process. The shortened 2020 season seemed to be a bounceback, with a wRC+ of 127 and an fWAR of 0.9. But 2021 has seen him trail off again, with his wRC+ down to 96 and his fWAR in negative territory again.  Hosmer’s contract still has four years remaining on it after 2021.

It’s unclear what the next collective bargaining agreement will look like, but the current one has a base tax threshold of $210MM for 2021.  As a potential first-time payor, the 20% tax on the overage seems like it should be a very mild deterrent.  For example, a team spending $225MM would incur a $3MM penalty.  So going over the base tax threshold in 2021 shouldn’t necessarily be a big concern, especially if the thresholds go up significantly in the next CBA.  One reason to attempt to avoid becoming a tax payor, at least in the current CBA: a CBT payor signing a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer forfeits its second and fifth-highest available draft picks and has its international bonus pool reduced by $1MM – as opposed to losing their second-highest pick and $500K of the international pool if they’re not a payor.  In other words, if the Padres exceed $210MM this year and the current draft pick compensation rules remain in place, then the club will face a slightly worse penalty if they sign a major free agent who turned down a qualifying offer.

Although Rosenthal adds that the team could conceivably increase their CBT figure “for the right acquisition,” they seem to also be considering the alternate route of ducking back beneath the line by season’s end. Moving Hosmer’s deal, with its $18MM AAV, would get the team below the line and potentially leave room for further additions. Since the team seemingly needs to pick a side and commit to it, “it could help explain why Preller continues to discuss a seemingly endless array of scenarios — including potential trades involving Hosmer,” according to Rosenthal.

There’s no indication that any deal is imminent, nor are any trading partners mentioned. But the appeal of acquiring Hosmer wouldn’t be so much about Hosmer himself. “The Padres likely would have to attach significant prospect value” to trade Hosmer, says Rosenthal. So, any team acquiring Hosmer would need to have enough payroll space to pay him, but with an eye towards the future production the prospects would provide. Speculatively speaking, the Cubs could be a fit. They’ve seemingly already started a sell-off, trading Joc Pederson to Atlanta earlier this month. First baseman and impending free agent Anthony Rizzo seems destined to be traded, unless the team can work out an extension. Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are also coming off the books at year’s end, or even sooner, creating more payroll space.

A return to the Royals is another intriguing possibility. They’ve been in rebuild mode since Hosmer left but tried to re-emerge as contenders with some aggressive moves in the most recent offseason. But that hasn’t gone as planned, as they are currently 42-55 and definite sellers as Friday’s 4pm trade deadline approaches. Acquiring Hosmer and some prospects could be a way to improve for future seasons while re-acquiring a fan favorite who was part of a World Series winner to help open the next competitive window.  The Orioles and Tigers could also consider taking on Hosmer’s contract as a way of bolstering their prospect inventory.

Latest On Jose Berrios

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The Twins are discussing Jose Berrios with multiple teams including the Padres and Dodgers, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets are not one of those other clubs at this time.

Berrios, 27, figures to be wildly popular on the trade market since he’s under team control for 2022 as an arbitration eligible player.  He ranks ninth in MLB with 121 2/3 innings, sporting a 3.48 ERA, 25.7 K%, and 6.5 BB%.  Berrios appears to have little interest in giving the Twins a discount on an extension, so naturally the team is listening to potential trade offers.  Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote this month, “Early indications are the Twins asked another team that inquired about Berríos for a pre-arb player and two top-100 prospects.”  Speaking of top 100 prospects, Baseball America just updated their list.

In an earlier tweet, Morosi suggested the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies “are active in the starting pitching market now.”  But it’s difficult to name any contender that couldn’t push aside their worst starting pitcher for Berrios.

Michael Pineda Drawing Trade Interest

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Twins righty Michael Pineda is drawing trade interest, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  The 32-year-old takes the bump tonight at Target Field against Matt Manning and the Tigers, in what figures to be a well-scouted affair.  According to Darren Wolfson of KSTP TV, the Twins have not held extension talks with Pineda, who’s due for free agency after the season.  Wolfson notes that the Padres have scouted Pineda this month.

The cellar-dwelling Twins dealt one impending free agent last week as they shipped Nelson Cruz to the Rays.  In addition to Pineda, Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, and Hansel Robles are set for free agency after the season and may be sent packing by Friday’s deadline.  More desirable, but perhaps less likely to be dealt, are a trio of quality Twins players who are controlled through 2022: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers.  The Twins figure to be central to this year’s trade deadline action.

The Twins re-signed Pineda to a two-year, $20MM deal back in December 2019, despite the knowledge that he’d miss the first 39 games of 2020 due to a PED suspension.  Assuming Pineda is making $10MM this year, more than $3MM will remain at the deadline.  Pineda sports a 3.93 through 13 starts this year, missing time with thigh and forearm injuries.  Pineda’s average fastball velocity is down to a career-worst 90.8 miles per hour this year.  On a related note, he’s punched out only 21% of batters faced, his worst mark since 2014.  Pineda’s strong control remains intact, with a walk rate south of 6%.  As a flyball-heavy hurler, he’s always been prone to the longball.

Despite adding Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove in the offseason, the Padres continue to seek starting pitching depth.  Dinelson Lamet, working his way back from forearm inflammation, will make a temporary move to the bullpen once he returns.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune previously linked the club to Kenta Maeda, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Danny Duffy, and Jon Gray.

As Jon Heyman of MLB Network sees it, almost all contenders aside from perhaps the White Sox and Astros are prioritizing starting pitching.  Morosi sees at least seven contenders as active in the starting pitching market at present: the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies.  Though Morosi did not mention the Mets, SNY’s Andy Martino says they’re in the market for help in both the rotation and bullpen, with a focus on rentals.

Padres Acquire Adam Frazier

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The Padres have acquired one of the most sought-after players on the trade market, picking up second baseman Adam Frazier in a four-player swap with the Pirates.  Infielder/outfielder Tucupita Marcano, outfielder Jack Suwinski, and right-hander Michell Miliano are the prospects heading to Pittsburgh in the deal, and the Pirates are also sending $1.4MM along with Frazier to San Diego.  The deal became official Monday afternoon.

It’s the first big move of deadline season for Padres general manager A.J. Preller, who is no stranger to splashy moves and is pushing to get his team first to the NL West title and then deeper into October.  While a number of pitching injuries would very well result in some arms being added between now and July 30, Preller recently indicated that a bat was also on his shopping list.

Frazier is enjoying the best season of his seven-year MLB career, hitting .324/.388/.448 with four home runs over 428 plate appearances for the Bucs in 2021.  There is some possibility for regression, as Frazier’s .359 BABIP has helped make up for some very low hard-contact numbers, and his .337 xwOBA is well below his .368 wOBA.  However, even that xwOBA is still above average, and Frazier somewhat makes up for that lack of hard contact by making a lot of contact in general — fitting the Padres’ model as a player who rarely strikes out.

Frazier is a left-handed hitter, and while the Padres generally lean more to the right side of the plate, Frazier might supplant another left-handed hitting regular in Eric Hosmer.  The hot-hitting Jake Cronenworth could slide from second base to take over from Hosmer as the regular first baseman, opening the door for Frazier to become the new everyday second baseman.  Since Frazier also has experience as a corner outfielder, he could move into the grass to spell Tommy Pham or Wil Myers, giving San Diego even more positional flexibility.

Since Frazier also has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, he’ll be able to help the Padres for both this year’s playoff race and throughout the 2022 season.  Frazier was earning $4.3MM this season, so the $1.4MM sent from Pittsburgh will cover most of his remaining salary for 2021, which helps the Padres stay under the $210MM luxury tax threshold.

There was little doubt that the rebuilding Pirates were going to move Frazier by the deadline, given that his strong season only enhanced his trade value.  Pittsburgh fans expecting multiple top-100 type prospects may be disappointed by the return, though it’s worth noting that Frazier has been more solid than outstanding during his career, with an even 100 OPS+ and wRC+ over his first six big league seasons.  Nevertheless, the Bucs did add three notable prospects to add to GM Ben Cherington’s overhaul of the farm system.

Marcano is the only member of the prospect trio with any MLB experience, appearing in 25 games for San Diego this season and posting a .485 OPS over 50 plate appearances.  An international signing from Venezuela in 2016, the 21-year-old Marcano is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the fifth-best prospect in the Padres’ deep farm system, while Baseball America has him in the eighth spot.

The Pirates valued Marcano highly enough that they were willing to include the $1.4MM to the Padres, Rosenthal reports, while other Frazier bidders like the Mariners weren’t asking for any money back in a proposed trade.  Heyman adds that the Padres weren’t willing to discuss Marcano back when San Diego and Pittsburgh worked out the Joe Musgrove trade last winter.

There’s plenty to like about the versatile Marcano, who has played mostly second base during his pro career but has also seen a lot of time at third base, shortstop, and both corner outfield slots.  At worst, Marcano seems like he’ll have a future as a utilityman, and he could well become a regular due to his excellent contact skills at the plate.  Marcano does lack some power, and while he possesses plus speed, BA’s scouting report notes that he will need to improve his baserunning instincts.  Marcano skipped Double-A entirely and made his Triple-A debut this year, hitting .272/.367/.444 with six home runs in 199 PA.

Neither Suwinski or Miliano appeared in the top-30 Padres prospect rankings for either Pipeline or Baseball America, but both youngsters have put themselves on the map in 2021.  Suwinski was a 15th-round pick for the Pirates in 2016, and hadn’t hit much in his first pro seasons before exploring for a .269/.398/.551 slash line and 15 home runs over 267 PA at Double-A San Antonio.  As noted by BA’s Matt Eddy, Suwinski has been doing this despite hitting in a pitcher-friendly home ballpark, though he’ll be moving to another pitcher-friendly location in the Pirates’ Double-A affiliate in Altoona.  Suwinski has experience at all three outfield positions, and is just a few days away from his 23rd birthday.

The 21-year-old Miliano has a 6.11 ERA over 94 1/3 innings in San Diego’s farm system, getting to high-A ball this season.  Miliano has given up a lot of hits (84) and, troublingly, almost as many walks (78) over his four seasons, but the Pirates were surely intrigued by his ability to miss bats.  The right-hander has a 31.74% strikeout rate in the minors, and that number includes an absurd 44.44% rate over 25 2/3 innings at A-level Lake Elsinore this year.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that the Padres had acquired Frazier.  FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that the Pirates were getting three prospects, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin identifying Marcano and Suwinski and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel identifying Miliano.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweeted that the Padres were getting cash back in the trade, with MLB Network’s Jon Heyman specifying the $1.4MM figure.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Padres Preparing For Dinelson Lamet To Join Bullpen

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The Padres are planning for an early August return to the hill for Dinelson Lamet, though he’s likeliest to come back in the bullpen, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Said Lamet about a possible role change, “At the end of the day, the rotation is some place I want to get back to, but I’m here to help the team. I’m here to help the team win. So, if that’s what my role is right now and that’s what I need to do to help, of course I’m going to do it.” Lamet’s primary concern is being available for the playoffs, where he could prove a vital weapon as a multi-inning shutdown reliever.

Padres Activate Ryan Weathers From Injured List

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Padres left-hander Ryan Weathers was activated off the 10-day injured list earlier today, and he marked the occasion with four shutout innings and his first career home run in San Diego’s 3-2 loss to the Marlins.  Weathers had to be helped off the field after suffering what looked like an ugly leg injury on July 11, though he ended up only fracturing a small bone in his right ankle.  He looked none the worse for wear today, which is a nice boost to a Padres team that has battled through multiple pitching injuries and might yet look to add more arms by the trade deadline.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Mets, Stroman, Padres, Cruz

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The Phillies are interested in Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin of the Cubs, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Phillies’ scouts are present at Wrigley Field today. While it may seem counterintuitive, having so many potential trade targets on one team can muddy the trade waters, so we’ll see if the Phillies and Cubs can narrow their focus to get a deal done here in the coming week. Elsewhere…

  • The Mets and Marcus Stroman have not had any discussions about a possible contract extension, per Mike Ruiz of Newsday. Stroman has played a massive role in the Mets’ ascent to the top of the NL East this season, tossing 111 1/3 innings with a 2.59 ERA/3.50 FIP. He has ranked among the top-30 starters in the game by fWAR, innings pitched, ERA, FIP, groundball rate, and walk rate. He’s heading towards free agency without a qualifying offer attached entering his age-31 season.
  • Before the Rays pulled the trigger on the deal for Nelson Cruz, the Padres made a significant push to acquire the slugger, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Cruz has a history of taking grounders at first and second base, and though it’s certainly hard to imagine a successful plan to convert the 41-year-old DH into an infielder, the Padres were willing to give it a shot in order to have his bat on the bench. What’s more, they weren’t the only National League team in pursuit, per Rosenthal.

Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets

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Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline.  This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”

That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego.  Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight.  It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.

On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries.  Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.”  The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda.  San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.

Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season.  Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season.  Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state.  Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.

The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.

A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting.  Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.

Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar.  Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started.  The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip.  Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.

Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason.  With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons.  Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.

What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air.  The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions.  In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.

Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two.  The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.

Padres Willing To Exceed Luxury Tax At Trade Deadline

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It might have seemed silly a few years ago to suggest that the Padres would soon have to make any decisions regarding the luxury tax — San Diego only reached $100MM in total payroll once prior to the 2020 season — but the Friars now find themselves roughly $6MM from the $210MM luxury barrier. And while many teams who are so close to the tax line are loath to actually cross the threshold, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Padres ownership is willing to make that concession as the trade deadline approaches.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller recently indicated that he’d like to upgrade his lineup in an effort to coax more consistent production out of the group, and the Padres have struggled to unexpected levels in the rotation. Blake Snell hasn’t pitched up to his previous standards, and the Friars are currently without Dinelson Lamet (forearm inflammation), Ryan Weathers (fractured ankle) and Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery). Last summer’s big-ticket acquisition, Mike Clevinger, underwent Tommy John surgery over the winter, so it’s been known for quite awhile that he wouldn’t be a factor in 2021.

The Padres have consistently been connected to Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, whom Preller knows quite well from his time as a Rangers assistant general manager. Gallo would be an upgrade in right field over Wil Myers, and since he’s controllable through the 2022 season, he’d be a multi-year improvement for the lineup. Gallo is hitting .233/.391/.510 and pacing MLB in total walks and walk percentage, and he’s been one of the game’s hottest hitters since early June: .282/.444/.748 in his past 133 plate appearances.

That said, Gallo himself wouldn’t take the Padres over the tax barrier, and he’s just one of multiple possibilities. Passan suggests more broadly that the Padres are open to adding a “significant” bat (Gallo included). Several others would fit that billing as well. The Marlins and Cubs are expected to trade Starling Marte and Kris Bryant before the trade deadline. The Mariners and the Orioles will be getting offers on Mitch Haniger and Trey Mancini, even if the preference for both clubs would be to hold onto them. If the Reds’ current slide continues, it’s at least feasible that they’d consider deals involving Nick Castellanos, who can opt out of his contract at season’s end.

Regardless of which bat the Padres zero in on, it’ll likely be one of multiple moves the Padres make, given their aggressive front office and the simultaneous need in the rotation.

Draft Signings: 7/20/21

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Today’s notable signings of Day Two draftees:

  • The Reds have signed second-rounder Andrew Abbott to a $1.3MM deal, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (Twitter link). That’s just a bit below the slot value that accompanies the 53rd overall pick. Abbott, a senior left-hander from the University of Virginia, gets good life on his low-mid 90’s fastball and missed plenty of bats in one of college baseball’s top conferences. Abbott’s 162 strikeouts this season trailed only top ten draftees Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in Division I baseball.
  • The Rangers have agreed to a $1MM deal with third-rounder Cameron Cauley, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). That’s a bit north of the $857.4K slot value associated with the 73rd selection. A high school shortstop from Texas, the right-handed hitting Cauley was ranked #84 on Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA writes that the Texas Tech commit is a good athlete with advanced bat-to-ball skills but limited power projection.
  • The Cardinals have signed Competitive Balance Round B selection Ryan Holgate for $875K, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a bit below the slot value that comes with the #70 selection. A power-hitting corner outfielder from the University of Arizona, Holgate checked in at #107 on BA’s rankings.
  • The Padres inked Competitive Balance Round B selection Robert Gasser for $884.2K, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s full slot value for the #71 overall pick. A left-handed pitcher from the University of Houston, Gasser checked in at #63 on BA’s rankings. He attracted attention from evaluators after experiencing a velocity spike into the mid-90’s this year to accompany a solid slider.
  • The Braves went well overslot to sign seventh-rounder A.J. Smith-Shawver. The righty from a Texas high school received a $997.5K bonus, reports Callis. That’s nearly $800K above slot to convince him to pass on a two-sport commitment (baseball and football) to Texas Tech. Smith-Shawver landed at #318 in BA’s rankings, drawing praise for a mid-90’s fastball and solid curveball.
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