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MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,886 people entered the contest.  Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.  (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year?  Click here).

1.  Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)

2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)

3.  Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)

4.  Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)

5.  Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)

6.  Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)

7.  Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)

8.  Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)

9.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)

10.  Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Multiple Teams Pursuing Zack Wheeler At Outset Of Free Agency

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7:33pm: The Mets also remain interested in exploring a multi-year arrangement with Wheeler, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not evident how serious that possibility is — let alone whether there’s any potential for a pact to come together before Wheeler formally reaches the open market.

We’ve seen plenty of on-again/off-again chatter of a deal with Wheeler over recent months. When the Mets acquired Marcus Stroman, it was generally supposed that the club was going to move on from Wheeler, though the door stayed open when he wasn’t dealt over the summer. With obvious budgetary restrains and other needs, it still feels like a longshot.

Meanwhile, those prior trade talks also came up in reporting today. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the Mets spoke with teams right up until the deadline passed, with the Astros pushing hardest and the Yankees, Rays, and Athletics also involved.

That’s mostly of historical interest, though it could offer some clues for free agency. Indeed, the Houston organization is already engaged with Wheeler’s reps, per Heyman (via Twitter). The ’Stros talked shop with Jet Sports today. We can only presume that the outfit’s major free agent starter came up in conversation, among other things.

2:29pm: Zack Wheeler technically has another three days to accept or reject his $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets, but there’s never been a realistic scenario in which he takes the one-year deal. The right-hander is widely considered to be among the four best pitchers in free agency this winter — No. 3 behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, by many accounts — and should have little trouble cashing in on a lucrative multi-year pact. To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Angels, Padres and White Sox are among the teams that have shown early interest in Wheeler. Other clubs have surely checked in already and will continue to do so, of course.

Wheeler, 29, has come all the way back from a lengthy absence stemming from 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s made 60 starts over the past two seasons and saw his fastball velocity tick up to a career-high 96.7 mph average in 2019 — the second-hardest mark of any free-agent starter on the market (behind Cole).

Wheeler had a rough handful of starts at the beginning of each of the past two seasons, but over his past 55 starts combined, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. Beyond the high-end velocity, Wheeler possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast).

Each of the three listed teams is a natural fit for Wheeler, though that’s true of the majority of rotation-hungry teams in the league. While the likes of Cole and Strasburg will be wholly ruled out by many clubs due to their expected $30MM+ annual salaries and over the next half decade-plus, Wheeler is quite likely someone most teams will view as affordable — even if he’s at the top end of their budget. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman quotes one team executive expressing a similar sentiment, calling Wheeler the best arm of the market’s second tier (beyond Cole and Strasburg) and adding “and everyone pretty much will believe they could afford him.”

Beyond the listed teams in Morosi’s report, it’d be a surprise if the Phillies, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals (if Strasburg departs), Dodgers, Blue Jays and others aren’t in play for the righty. Wheeler could draw the most widespread interest of any free agent on the market this winter and will probably be connected to a dozen or more additional teams between now and the time he finally puts pen to paper.

Free Agent Faceoff: Wheeler Vs. Bumgarner Vs. Ryu

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It doesn’t take a baseball savant to figure out that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are the two best pitchers on the free-agent market. Cole is on a collision course with the largest contract a hurler has ever secured, a sure bet to outdo the $217MM Boston’s David Price received four years ago, while Strasburg could come within $20MM to $30MM of the $200MM mark in his own right. After those two aces, the starting market for free agents gets a lot less interesting, but that’s not to suggest it’s made up of nothing but back-end types. Quite the contrary, actually, as MLBTR forecasts that four other starters will land guarantees worth at least $50MM this offseason.

Former Met Zack Wheeler, longtime Giant Madison Bumgarner and ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu make up the remainder of the top five free-agent starters after Cole and Strasburg. Going by projected earning power, Wheeler is easily the most desirable of the trio. We’ve got him signing for $100MM over a half-decade, Bumgarner putting pen to paper on a four-year, $72MM accord and Ryu getting a three-year, $54MM contract. But you’re well within your rights to want Bumgarner or Ryu over Wheeler. Let’s take a closer look at the touted troika, and then you can vote on who’s the most appealing…

Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
Qualifying offer? Yes

  • Wheeler missed almost all of 2015-17 while dealing with arm issues, including a Tommy John procedure, but he has emphatically put those days behind him. He has been one of the most productive starters in baseball over the past two seasons, having tossed 180-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA, four-plus-fWAR ball in each year. But it’s not just the bottom-line production that has put Wheeler on clubs’ radars. It’s also his elite fastball velocity, which clocked in at a personal-high 96.7 mph in 2019. His fastball and curveball spin were also better than average, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity against (86.2 mph; 90th percentile) and hard-hit rate against (32.2 percent; 82nd percentile) were near the top of the league.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
Qualifying offer? Yes

  • Bumgarner’s legendary postseason exploits are well-documented, but he hasn’t pitched a playoff game since 2016. Over the past couple years, Bumgarner’s days as a front-line starter have seemingly faded away. But he remains a major asset, someone just about any team would be happy to plug into its rotation. After a couple injury-shortened seasons, Bumgarner reestablished his durability in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA/FIP ball and 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. And Bumgarner’s fastball/curve spin rates were near the apex of the league this season, for what it’s worth.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
Age: 33 by next season
Qualifying offer? No

  • No one in this group did a better job preventing runs this year than Ryu, who’s an NL Cy Young finalist after recording a 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP, 8.03 K/9 against 1.18 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 182 2/3 innings. Terrific results are par for the course for Ryu – on a per-start basis, he may be the No. 1 pitcher here – but age and injury history threaten to hinder him to some degree on the open market. Ryu missed all of 2015 and then threw anywhere from 4 2/3 to 126 2/3 innings in each season from 2016-18.

There you have it, a quick rundown of the three premier free-agent starters not named Cole or Strasburg. Considering their histories, their qualifying offer statuses and their potential earning power, who’s the one you’d most like to sign?

(Poll link for app users)

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

Van Wagenen: Mets Will Make Qualifying Offer To Zack Wheeler

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The Mets will extend a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer to right-hander Zack Wheeler before today’s 5pm ET deadline, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen announced at today’s press conference to introduce new manager Carlos Beltran (h/t: Joel Sherman of the New York Post, on Twitter).

That’s been the expected outcome for several months now, and Wheeler is widely expected to reject the offer in search of a more lucrative deal in free agency. If and when Wheeler does sign a new contract elsewhere, the Mets will be entitled to a compensatory pick in the 2020 draft.

Wheeler, 29, should have little trouble trouncing that $17.8MM, one-year offer in free agency. The market features a pair of clear-cut No. 1 starters in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but Wheeler is very arguably the No. 3 free-agent arm of the winter and will likely be treated as such by several teams. As laid out recently by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne, Wheeler is the second-hardest-throwing starter on the market (trailing only Cole), and no free-agent starter limited hard contact better than Wheeler in 2019. He also ranks in the top 10 among free agents in terms of highest strikeout percentage and lowest walk percentage.

While some may point to Wheeler’s 3.96 ERA in 2019 and zero in too heavily on that figure, his overall body of work over the past two seasons is largely excellent. In his past 55 Major League starts, Wheeler has pitched to a collective 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate. He’s done so while playing in front of a porous defense that ranks 29th among MLB teams with a ghastly -169 Defensive Runs Saved across the past two seasons.

Qualifying offer notwithstanding, it’d be a surprise to see Wheeler command anything less than a strong three-year deal, and even that’s a rather cautious and conservative outlook. The demand for pitching among contenders will be strong, and Wheeler is trending up at a time when the trade market offers virtually nothing in terms of top-tier arms. For clubs looking to add a starter with front-of-the-rotation upside but unwilling to approach the $30MM+ annual salaries that Cole and Strasburg will likely command, Wheeler and lefty Madison Bumgarner are the next-best options.

Quick Hits: Twins, Cubs, Rizzo, Strike Zone

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Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Hyun-Jin Ryu were named as three potential offseason targets for the Twins in MLBTR’s recent “Offseason Outlook” series, and that trio was also speculatively connected to the team in a piece from LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (link). Specifically, Neal takes a look at Minnesota’s extremely fluid rotation picture, which in 2019 featured four hurlers–Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, and Martin Perez–who project to enter free agency (assuming the club declines their option on Perez, as expected). The departures of those pitchers could create something of a vacuum in Minnesota, but payroll flexibility and a talented farm should position them well to address any openings, suggests Neal.

By the writer’s calculations, the club could have upwards of $50MM in payroll room this offseason, while youngsters like Brusdar Graterol and Randy Dobnak could step into the rotation for portions of time. That financial leeway could certainly put them in position for pitchers like Bumgarner or the rest of the post-Cole free agent pitching class, to say nothing of possible trade acquisitions.

More notes from around the baseball world…

  • After making a pair of option decisions on Saturday, the Cubs are expected to exercise first baseman Anthony Rizzo’s option imminently, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (link). 2019 saw Rizzo log his sixth consecutive season with a wRC+ north of 126 (his cumulative figure over that span is a whopping 141 wRC+), making him one of the easier club option decisions of the offseason. Rizzo carries a $14.5MM club option for 2020, with a soon-to-be-irrelevant $2MM buyout attached. Next offseason, Chicago holds an identical 2021 option over Rizzo, lining the slugger up for his first realistic shot at free agency in advance of the 2022 season. Rizzo will be 32 on Opening Day of that campaign.
  • MLB experimented with an electronic strike zone in the Arizona Fall League this season, and it proved rather unpopular with pitchers and hitters alike, writes Josh Norris of Baseball America. While players effused praise for the system’s proficiency on the corners, calls at the top and bottom of the zone were less well-received. Additionally, the delay between the system’s tracking the pitch and relaying of that decision to the home-plate umpire caused some awkward exchanges. Of course, growing pains are to be expected, and the electronic zone is at least consistent, Norris adds, so MLB figures to continue to test its viability in lower-stakes games before considering a rollout at the big league level.

Mets Notes: Managerial Search, Wheeler

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The Mets have begun narrowing the field in their managerial search, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that neither Padres first base coach Skip Schumaker nor D-backs director of player development Mike Bell will receive a second interview. Joe Girardi, Eduardo Perez, Carlos Beltran, Mets quality control coach Luis Rojas, Nationals first base coach Tim Bogar and Twins bench coach Derek Shelton are all in line for second-round interviews in the near future. New York’s search doesn’t appear to be as far along as that of the Phillies, who are reportedly down to three veteran candidates with Girardi reported to be in the lead. The Phils could make Girardi an offer well before the Mets’ search is near completion, which would further narrow the field but remove a prominent contender for the position.

Meanwhile, Newsday’s David Lennon explores the lack of clarity in the Mets’ search, opining that it’s strange that an organization that has likely expected to be seeking a new skipper since midseason would still be so uncertain regarding the qualities it hopes to find in a new manager. The Mets have indeed interviewed a rather wide-reaching slate of candidates, and the remaining group is fairly eclectic without a clear front-runner.

Here’s more out of Queens…

  • Everyone loves a “mystery team” in free agency, but how about a “mystery candidate” in a managerial search? Both MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino suggested the that a “bombshell” candidate is in the mix if none of the presently known options distinguishes himself (Twitter links). That only furthers the notion that the Wilpon family isn’t sure what type of skipper they’re seeking. Speculation and or eye-rolls will surely abound, though both Heyman and Martino both ruled out David Wright, while Heyman adds that Alex Rodriguez could only laugh when asked about the possibility. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne put his money on Benny Agbayani, and I’m calling that the Mets double down on their Brodie Van Wagenen investment and make him the manager as well (kidding … mostly).
  • Turning to the Mets’ actual roster, The Athletic’s Tim Britton explores Zack Wheeler’s impending free agency and whether he’s a fit to re-sign with the team in free agency (subscription link). The call on issuing Wheeler a qualifying offer is an easy “yes,” he opines — we at MLBTR are inclined to agree — as is Wheeler’s decision to reject it. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently laid out, the Mets not only lack flexibility but are actually on pace to spend more on the current roster than they did in 2019. Britton notes that the Mets would need to be OK with surpassing or at least flirting with the luxury tax in order to re-sign Wheeler, though he contends that with Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Jed Lowrie and Wilson Ramos all off the books following the 2020 season (to say nothing of Justin Wilson and Marcus Stroman), surpassing the luxury threshold would be justifiable for a win-now Mets club. Of course, despite playing in New York, the Mets haven’t crossed that line before and have not carried an Opening Day payroll greater than this season’s $158.5MM mark.

Zack Wheeler Discusses Pending Free Agency

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In what could be his final week in a Mets uniform, pending free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler spoke about his future with Mollie Walker of the New York Post, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters Wednesday. Unsurprisingly, the 29-year-old Wheeler doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to commit to his current team with what could be a lucrative trip to the open market looming.

“I think you have to weigh your options when it gets to this point,” said Wheeler, who’s just over a month from becoming a free agent. “I love it here and I definitely would listen to these guys. But I think you have to weigh all your options and see what’s best for me personally at that point.”

Wheeler was both a trade and an extension candidate as recently as July, but the Mets neither dealt him nor locked him up. And there haven’t been any rumors regarding a new contract between the sides since then, so it appears increasingly likely Wheeler will test the market.

Considering the wide interest he drew prior to the trade deadline, the Mets probably could have gotten something for Wheeler back in July (though he was coming off shoulder issues at the time). However, even if he walks in free agency, they’ll still have a chance to land draft compensation for Wheeler – who looks like a surefire candidate to receive the qualifying offer. Wheeler would then have the option of accepting the one-year offer (which should be worth in the $18MM-$19MM neighborhood) and sticking with the Mets. As you’d expect, though, Wheeler prefers more security than the QO presents.

On the prospect of signing a multiyear pact, Wheeler stated: “Hopefully, yeah. Time will tell.”

Although Wheeler’s a former Tommy John patient who sat out for almost all of 2015-17 with arm injuries, he has spent the past two seasons making a strong case for a considerable multiyear payday. After firing 182 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.25 FIP ball in 2018, Wheeler has notched 187 1/3 frames of 3.99 ERA/3.47 FIP pitching this year. During that two-year span, Wheeler has struck out just under a hitter per inning while walking fewer than three per nine. Moreover, Wheeler boasts elite fastball velocity – the pitch clocks in at just under 97 mph – which should only make it easier for him to cash in during the coming months.

In the event Wheeler pitches for a different team in 2020, the top of the Mets’ rotation could still be in enviable shape. Ace Jacob deGrom might be a back-to-back NL Cy Young winner by then, while Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman make for fine complements. Then again, with all the trade rumors that have surrounded Syndergaard since last winter, perhaps he – like Wheeler – isn’t a lock to don a Mets uni next year.

Mets, Zack Wheeler “Failed To Progress” In Extension Talks

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The Mets were seemingly exploring all options as both buyers and sellers leading up to the trade deadline, including the possibility of signing Zack Wheeler to an extension and (presumably then) trading Noah Syndergaard.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal had the original report about the Mets’ interest in extending Wheeler, and in a longer piece (subscription required), Rosenthal notes that Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen actually did broach a long-term deal with Wheeler’s agent.  However, “the conversations failed to progress,” and Wheeler is still on track to reach free agency after the season.

It isn’t any surprise that the two sides didn’t link up, if for no other reason than it’s rare to see a pending free agent sign a midseason extension.  Usually, such deals are completed before Opening Day (or perhaps shortly into April) in the player’s final season under contract.  With over two-thirds of the season in the books, however, it likely would’ve taken a real sweetheart of an offer from the Mets to convince Wheeler to forego his shot at the open market, particularly since he stands to land a rich deal.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently slotted Wheeler fourth in his latest power ranking of the 2019-20 free agent class.

If anything, Wheeler’s stock has only risen since the trade deadline.  The right-hander has tossed 15 shutout innings over his last two starts, continuing his career-long trend of pitching better in the second half of the season.  For all of 2019, Wheeler has a 4.20 ERA, 9.62 K/9, 46.3% grounder rate, 4.26 K/BB rate, and .297 xwOBA over 139 1/3 innings, with ERA indicators (3.44 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA) hinting that he is outperforming his actual ERA.

Even before his two post-deadline starts boosted his numbers, Wheeler was still generating a lot of trade interest, though no team was prepared to meet the Mets’ “high, high expectations” (as one team official told Rosenthal) placed on any trade offer for Wheeler, Syndergaard, or any other player who might have been available.  The asking price was high enough even to deter teams who might have been willing to overpay for Wheeler — one rival executive tells Rosenthal that his club was prepared to make a “stupid” offer to add him to their rotation before the deadline.

As Rosenthal notes, this “stupid” offer (and possibly other offers from other teams) would likely have given the Mets more in return for Wheeler than the compensatory draft pick they’d be in line to receive if Wheeler signed elsewhere this winter after rejecting a qualifying offer.  Like so many other free agents in recent years, Wheeler’s market could be somewhat impacted by a qualifying offer (a one-year deal in the range of $18MM+), though the odds are good right now that he’d reject the QO in search of a longer-term contract.

The Mets ended up being buyers rather than sellers at the deadline, adding Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays and holding onto the rest of their starting staff.  At the moment, it’s hard to argue with results, as New York was already on a hot streak going into the deadline that has now extended to a run of 13 wins over their last 14 games.  If the Mets did plan to make a playoff push, however, Rosenthal wonders why Stroman ended up being the only move, as the club didn’t address other needs (i.e. relief pitching, center field), and also traded another starter in Jason Vargas to the Phillies, another team in wild card contention.  It’s possible the Mets could be active on the August waiver wire, though Rosenthal also wonders if the $206MM luxury tax threshold could have been a consideration — Roster Resource has the Mets’ luxury tax number at just under $203.22MM.

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