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Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

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3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

Rangers Met Recently With Anthony Rendon

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The Rangers missed the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, but with a new ballpark set to open next season, it appears they’re serious about returning to contention immediately. The Rangers gave right-handed starter Kyle Gibson a three-year, $30MM guarantee last week, though that deal could pale in comparison to the highest award they dole out this winter. The club’s in pursuit of the best free-agent position player on the market in third baseman Anthony Rendon, as it met with him and agent Scott Boras in Houston on Sunday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The Rangers haven’t made a contract offer yet, per Grant, but “several executives” have indicated they’re the favorites to sign him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today sports tweets.

Signing Rendon would likely mean doling out a guarantee well above $200MM, though it could help the Rangers’ cause that he’s a Texas native. Rendon’s by far the best unsigned third baseman in the game, but between their interest in him and Josh Donaldson, it’s clear the Rangers are serious about finding their first great option at the position since potential Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre retired after the 2018 season.

Texas, however, isn’t just considering a splash at the hot corner. Rather, the Rangers could pick up yet another high-profile starter even after signing Gibson. It’s “believed” that they’ve recently met with free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, according to Grant. Wheeler, who could cost around $100MM in free agency, would add another formidable arm to a rotation that has taken an obvious step forward with the acquisition of Gibson. Those two would presumably join Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Kolby Allard to give the Rangers a rather imposing top five heading into 2020.

Latest On Twins, Zack Wheeler

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Minnesota’s among the teams chasing free agent Zack Wheeler, but the Twins haven’t made the right-hander an offer yet, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News reports. However, Wolfson suggests it’s only a matter of time before that will change. The club reportedly met with Wheeler’s representatives earlier this month.

Whether it’s Minnesota or another team that winds up signing Wheeler, it may have to fork over a nine-figure contract for the former Met. An executive told Dan Hayes of The Athletic that Wheeler should be able to land a five-year deal worth between $100MM and $110MM. A contract worth $100MM or more for Wheeler wouldn’t be particularly surprising, as MLBTR predicted he’d land exactly that much when the offseason got underway three weeks ago.

It obviously remains to be seen whether the Twins will be the team that emerges on top in the bidding for Wheeler, but the reigning AL Central champions’ need for starting pitching is obvious. Righty Jake Odorizzi made the somewhat surprising decision to accept the Twins’ $17.8MM qualifying offer earlier this month, thus patching a hole for the team, but he and Jose Berrios are the only proven rotation options penciled in for next year. The Twins lost free agent Kyle Gibson to the Rangers on Wednesday, while both Michael Pineda and Martin Perez are currently on the open market.

Odorizzi’s decision represents an instance in which the Twins have benefited from the qualifying offer system, though it’ll hurt them a bit if they sign Wheeler (or fellow standout free-agent pitchers Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Madison Bumgarner). Adding a single free agent who rejected a QO, as Wheeler, Cole, Strasburg and Bumgarner did, would cost Minnesota its third-highest draft pick in 2020. Of course, that shouldn’t be a prohibitive price for a club that likely expects to reign over its division again next year and compete for a World Series.

Quick Hits: Hill, Wheeler, Twins, O’s, Rays

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Free-agent left-hander Rich Hill drew interest from ten teams at last week’s GM Meetings, he tells J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). That interest was in spite of the primary revision surgery Hill has undergone this offseason, which will likely sideline him until at least June. However, Hill, 40 in March, has remained extremely effective when he’s been able to pitch, and it seems teams are keen on him despite the injury risk. The veteran didn’t indicate whether he’d prefer to sign this offseason and rehab under the supervision of a team or wait until he’s fully healthy to showcase for teams next summer.

  • The Twins have right-hander Zack Wheeler “very high on their list of pitching targets,” reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That’s unsurprising, as Wheeler is the number three starting pitching option on this year’s free agent market. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in the Twins’ offseason outlook, the organization’s long-term payroll is relatively open, and starting pitching stands as the team’s biggest need this offseason. José Berrios and Jake Odorizzi are the only locks to be in the rotation next season. Wheeler figures to draw a robust market, as the MLBTR staff forecasted him for a five-year, $100MM deal at the offseason’s outset.
  • The Orioles have named Rockies assistant Anthony Sanders their first base coach, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the O’s would hire him for that role. Sanders is a former professional outfielder who spent 14 years coaching with the Rockies. He’ll take over for Arnie Beyeler in Baltimore.
  • The Rays have hired former Astros scout Greg Brown as their hitting coordinator, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first suggested the Rays would choose Brown, who had been the head coach at Nova Southeastern University. Heyman notes Brown signed now-Red Sox star J.D. Martinez back when he was a scout with Houston. Of course, Martinez didn’t truly blossom until he ended up in Detroit several years later.

Reds Interested In Zack Wheeler

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Add the Reds to the many teams interested in coveted free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Wheeler’s longtime team, the Mets, as well as the White Sox, Twins, Angels, Padres, Yankees and Blue Jays are also among the clubs that have been connected to him early this offseason.

Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams indicated last month the Reds would be active in free agency, though expectations were the team’s focus would be on the offensive side. After all, the Reds finished last season 25th in the majors in both runs and wRC+, yet there’s already plenty of talent in their rotation. The team currently boasts Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani as locks for its starting staff next year. That said, signing Wheeler would perhaps give Cincinnati an elite rotation on paper, and now that catcher Yasmani Grandal (a target for the Reds who signed with the White Sox on Thursday) is off the board, an agent told Rosenthal the club may be prepared to redirect a significant portion of its available funds to Wheeler.

The 29-year-old Wheeler would immediately become one of the biggest signings in Reds history, with MLBTR predicting he’ll land a $100MM deal over a half-decade this offseason. Wheeler would give the Reds yet another front-of-the-rotation type, having pitched to a 3.96 ERA/3.48 FIP with 8.98 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 across a career-high 195 1/3 innings in 2019. That output was enough to convince the Mets to hit the flamethrowing Wheeler with a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he rejected. Because he’s a QO recipient, signing Wheeler would cost the Reds their third-highest pick in 2020. That won’t scare Cincy off, though, as Williams said last week the team will consider signing players who received a QO.

Latest On Zack Wheeler

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The White Sox made the biggest splash of the young free agency season on Thursday, signing the best catcher available, Yasmani Grandal, to a long-term contract. The four-year, $73MM guarantee the White Sox handed Grandal stands as the largest deal in franchise history, but it might not be long before the team doles out an even richer pact. The White Sox remain among those after free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, per reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jon Morosi of MLB.com (video link) and Andy Martino of SNY. They first showed interest in Wheeler well before signing Grandal.

If MLBTR’s five-year, $100MM prediction proves accurate, Wheeler could become the first nine-figure player in White Sox history. The longtime Met and former Tommy John surgery patient made a case for that type of payday during the previous two seasons with 8.9 fWAR over 377 2/3 innings, thereby putting three straight injury-ruined years behind him. Along the way, Wheeler recorded a terrific 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP with 8.91 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 and averaged a blazing 96.8 mph on his four-seam fastball.

Now, should Wheeler end up on the South Side of Chicago, he’d give the club at least two frontline-caliber starters from the get-go. Although 2019 was yet another dismal season in the standings for the White Sox, they did see Lucas Giolito emerge as a star atop their rotation. And Giolito’s hardly the lone promising starter on hand, as Chicago also boasts Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease. Meanwhile, Michael Kopech could factor into the club’s rotation from the outset of next season after missing 2018 because of a Tommy John procedure, and fellow TJ patient Carlos Rodon figures to return at some point in 2020.

Considering the 29-year-old Wheeler is the third-best starter on the open market, trailing only Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, there’s predictably substantial interest in him so far. The Angels, Padres and Twins are also among those who have been connected to him thus far. Anybody that signs Wheeler will have to surrender draft compensation, as he rejected a $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets a week ago. The White Sox and Angels would each give up their second-highest pick in 2020 and $500K of their international signing bonus pool, while the Padres and Twins would lose their third-highest selection.

Twins Rumors: Wheeler, Bumgarner, Catcher, Perez, Odorizzi

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The Twins met with Zack Wheeler’s representatives at Jet Sports during last week’s GM Meetings, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North reports in his latest podcast (audio link). Minnesota also has interest in free-agent lefty Madison Bumgarner, much as they did prior to the July 31 trade deadline. The Twins filled one spot in the rotation when Jake Odorizzi accepted the qualifying offer, but they still have virtually no certainty beyond Odorizzi and fellow righty Jose Berrios. Thankfully, Minnesota has a substantial amount of payroll space given their lack of long-term commitments. Adding at least one more — and likely two more — seems like it’ll be a goal for recently extended front office tandem Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

Some early notes in what should be a busy offseason for the Twins…

  • The Twins made a multi-year offer to Yasmani Grandal last winter but aren’t expected to pursue him again this winter, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Mitch Garver’s breakout 2019 season and the continued development of prospect Ryan Jeffers has the Twins bullish on their internal catching options, even if Jeffers isn’t likely to be an option until the 2021 season. More importantly, the aforementioned needs in the rotation will take priority over sorting out who’ll share time with Garver behind the plate. Still, with Jason Castro hitting free agency and Jeffers only briefly reaching Double-A in 2019, adding a second catcher is arguably an understated need. Minnesota does have one of the game’s more unique backup options in the versatile Willians Astudillo, but “La Tortuga” batted just .268/.299/.379 in 204 plate appearances this past season (79 OPS+) and only suited up for 158 innings behind the plate. The 28-year-old Astudillo’s ability to catch and handle multiple infield/outfield positions does make him an intriguing fit as the 26th man on next year’s expanded roster.
  • Also of note, Hayes writes that the Twins have some interest in bringing left-hander Martin Perez back in 2020, although clearly at a lower rate than the $7.5MM club option the team declined earlier this month. Speculatively speaking, it’d be interesting to see what the hard-throwing Perez could do in short relief stints, and the Twins don’t have much on the roster in terms of left-handed relief options beyond closer Taylor Rogers. Perez averaged 94.1 mph on his fastball as a starter in 2019 and would presumably see that velocity trend upward with a move to the bullpen.
  • Odorizzi joined MLB Network’s Hot Stove show this morning to discuss his decision to accept the qualifying offer but also expressed interest in remaining with the Twins on a long-term deal (video link). “I really enjoy Minnesota,” said Odorizzi. “The people up there are fantastic. Obviously the team is really good. Our front office does a great job. Having [manager Rocco Baldelli] there is a great familiarity with me. But that’s kind of out of my control. The door is open from me, and it’s just a matter of if they want me. … I’d like to have a place where my family can settle down with me and call home, but that’s baseball — sometimes you’ve got to play it year to year and figure it out from there.”

East Rumors: Jays, Yanks, Andujar, Mets, Thor

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The Blue Jays had interest in right-hander Jake Odorizzi before he came off the market by accepting the Twins’ qualifying offer Thursday. Now that Odorizzi’s out of the picture for Toronto, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet lists several free-agent starters who remain on the team’s radar. They have some level of interest in Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Tanner Roark, Michael Pineda, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Dallas Keuchel, according to Davidi. Of course, some of those names are more realistic than others for the rebuilding Blue Jays, whose inability to pry Odorizzi from Minnesota “shows their restraint from previous winters remains strong and steady,” Davidi argues. On the other hand, though, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet has heard from multiple agents who, in discussing their clients with the Jays early this offseason, “have noticed a change in tone compared to years past.” One thing appears certain: The team’s casting a wide net as it seeks much-needed rotation help.

  • Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar was an offensive standout as a rookie in 2018, but a shoulder injury dragged down his production this year and ended his season in mid-May. However, according to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, Andujar’s adverse 2019 hasn’t diminished teams’ enthusiasm for the 24-year-old. “I’m definitely getting a lot of interest in Miguel Andujar,” Cashman revealed to Michael Kay and Don La Greca of 98.7 FM ESPN New York (audio link). That doesn’t mean the Yankees will trade Andujar, though the defensively challenged slugger has at least temporarily lost his hold on third. Cashman suggested Gio Urshela, who posted an out-of-nowhere breakout season as Andujar’s replacement, is the favorite to continue as the Yankees’ top option at the hot corner. With that in mind, the Yankees are at least considering trying to make Andujar a multi-positional player – someone who can also line up at first and/or in the outfield. Whether or not that comes to fruition, Cashman continues to regard Andujar as “an exciting young talent.”
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said at the beginning of October that the club’s not going to trade right-hander Noah Syndergaard this offseason. A month and a half later, Van Wagenen hasn’t changed his mind. Teams have called about Syndergaard, but Van Wagenen has rebuffed them, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. The Mets, if they plan to contend in 2020, don’t seem to be in position to trade Syndergaard. After all, they’re already likely to lose one of their best starters in Zack Wheeler. And Syndergaard’s projected to make an affordable salary ($9.9MM) next year, which is crucial for a New York team that appears to lack financial flexibility.
  • Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier has been popular in trade speculation for years, though the club has held on to him despite a logjam in the grass. Could the Yankees finally part with Frazier this winter? Ken Davidoff of the New York Post discusses Frazier’s trade value with multiple anonymous executives, who unsurprisingly opine that the 25-year-old’s appeal has dipped somewhat. Defense has been a problem for Frazier, who spent a good portion of 2019 in the minors working to improve in that area. He did, however, collect a career-high 246 MLB plate appearances in 2019 and bat an adequate .267/.317/.489 with 12 home runs. Cashman admitted Frazier “took a step backwards” in 2019, though the exec’s encouraged that Frazier has “already proven he can play in New York.”

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

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While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

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