Zack Greinke

Free Agent Profile: Zack Greinke

By Steve Adams | December 2, 2015 at 8:18am CDT

After exercising an opt-out clause in his previous six-year, $147MM contract and leaving a guaranteed $71MM on the table, Zack Greinke is poised to secure more than double that amount as one of the top free agents of the 2015-16 offseason.

Strengths/Pros

Greinke is coming off a season for the ages. The right-hander’s 1.66 ERA is the lowest single-season mark for a qualified starting pitcher since Greg Maddux’s 1.63 ERA back in 1995. Greinke doesn’t play in the offensive environment that we saw in the late 90s and early 2000s, but the lowest ERA in two decades is nonetheless incredible, and his ERA+ (which adjusts for both park and league, with 100 being average) rates him a staggering 125 percent better than a league-average pitcher in 2015.

Greinke isn’t some one-year wonder, though. He’s a former Cy Young winner (American League, 2009) with a longstanding history as an ace that is coming off a three-year platform with the Dodgers which featured a 2.30 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 innings. I’m not a big subscriber to the importance of postseason stats over regular season stats, but even if you find it critical, Greinke’s work with the Dodgers checks all the right boxes. He’s been to three straight postseasons with L.A. and worked to a 2.38 ERA with a 41-to-5 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 innings.

While Greinke isn’t as young as most free-agent starters (more on that later), there’s a belief among scouts that he’ll age better than most pitchers because he’s not overly reliant on velocity and because he’s among the most cerebral pitchers in the game. As ESPN’s Keith Law wrote (Insider subscription required and recommended) when ranking Greinke second among free agents this season, “Greinke’s command, control and understanding of how to set up hitters are all at or near the top of the sport, and as much as long-term deals for any pitcher frighten me, I’d probably give Greinke whatever number of years he wants.” Law’s colleague, Jerry Crasnick, polled a number of execs and scouts in the early stages of the offseason, and 19 of the 34 respondents preferred Greinke to David Price, with one scout calling Greinke the closest thing this generation has to Maddux and another saying he’ll age more gracefully than Price (which wasn’t to say Price will age poorly, but rather that Greinke will age abnormally well).

Greinke’s velocity has dipped from its peak of a 94 mph average in 2007, but he still averages a solid 91.8 mph on his heater, and as the velocity has declined, he’s improved in other areas. When he was throwing his hardest, Greinke averaged nearly 2.5 walks per nine innings, but he’s averaged just 1.9 walks per nine since his fastball dipped below an average of 92 mph. He’s become much more of a ground-ball pitcher later in his career as well; Greinke recorded a 40 percent ground-ball rate when he won the Cy Young in 2009 but was at 48 percent in 2015 and has averaged a 47.9 percent rate over the past four seasons. Per Fangraphs, he induced the seventh-most weak contact of any qualified starter in baseball this season.

National League clubs will love the fact that Greinke is a career .220/.261/.337 hitter and that he batted .224/.232/.343 with a pair of homers in 2015. Relative to the rest of the league, of course, those numbers are abysmal, but one also has to keep in mind that the average pitcher batted .131/.158/.168 in 2015. Greinke is a considerably more difficult out at the plate than most pitchers, and he’ll probably chip in a homer or two over the course of a full season.

Weaknesses/Cons

The list of weaknesses for a pitcher coming off the fourth-best ERA in the past 30 years is going to be relatively short, but Greinke’s most significant roadblock to a record contract is his age. Greinke’s velocity has indeed declined in recent seasons, and while the belief that he has the intelligence to succeed with diminished stuff almost certainly has some merit, one still has to assume some form of decline in performance as his repertoire deteriorates.

The other con for teams in the Greinke sweepstakes is that they’re paying for his services as he comes off an almost assuredly unrepeatable season. Greinke benefited from a .229 batting average on balls in play and an 86.5 percent strand rate — both of which were considerably better than the league norm and enormous outliers when compared to his career body of work. Greinke isn’t a consistent 1.66 ERA pitcher (no starter is), but his camp can use the historic season as leverage all the same. It’s been obvious that Greinke would opt out of his contract, barring injury, for more than a year. But, if he’d had a more characteristic season (say a 2.75 ERA in 210 innings) or even a bit of a down year relative to his first two in Los Angeles (3.30 ERA in 200 innings), we’d probably be talking more in the $120-140MM range.

The other con working against Greinke is that he rejected a qualifying offer and will cost a draft pick.

Market

Greinke will reportedly choose between the Dodgers and the Giants this week, with an average annual value topping David Price’s $31MM said to be attainable on a five- and possibly six-year deal.

While those are the two teams most heavily connected to Greinke, it’s not out of the question that a well-funded dark horse could sweep in at the last minute. The Red Sox and Tigers have already made their big free-agent splashes, but the Cardinals reportedly finished as a runner-up to the Sox in the pursuit of Price. Knowing that they were willing to spend at that level on a similarly regarded free agent, it’s at least conceivable that they could make a late entry into the Greinke market.

Of course, St. Louis hasn’t been tied recently to Greinke. Neither, really, have other clubs with significant spending capacity and theoretically plausible interest — such as the Yankees and Cubs, or even the Angels and Nationals. But the Cards operated quietly on Price, and it’s still possible there’s a lurking mystery team that could make a serious run at the new top free agent starter.

Expected Contract

Were Greinke heading into his age-30 or even age-31 season like most of his peers, he’d be in line to challenge Price’s new record-setting contract of $217MM.

Recent contracts of five-plus years for pitchers like Price, Scherzer, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia have seen the guaranteed portion of the contract end with a player’s age-35 or age-36 season. The same was true of Justin Verlander’s extension, which runs through age 36. Even Roy Halladay’s three-year, $60MM extension with the Phillies prior to the 2011 season ended in his age-36 campaign.

The challenge for Greinke and agent Casey Close of Excel Sports will be getting a team to commit to him into his age-37. If that happens, Greinke can approach $200MM, even though he’ll probably still fall shy of it. Nonetheless, he’s poised to land a free-agent contract that has, to this point, only ever been exceeded by the likes of Scherzer and Price.

The fact that the two chief suitors for Greinke are division rivals works out incredibly well for Greinke’s camp. Whatever value the Dodgers or Giants place on Greinke (let’s say five to six wins per season), they have to consider that not only are they adding those wins to their total by signing Greinke — they’re preventing their top competitor from doing so in the process. It can be argued that no team is hurt more by the Dodgers signing Greinke than the Giants, and vice versa. That factor may have substantially driven up the bidding already.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected a six-year, $156MM contract back in early November, but considering what we’ve learned in recent days, a six-year, $189MM contract seems attainable.

Zack Greinke Market Beginning To Heat Up

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2015 at 1:59pm CDT

The market for free-agent ace Zack Greinke is “quietly heating up,” tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Both the Dodgers and Giants are looking for some clarity in regards to their pursuit of the right-hander, according to Crasnick, who hears that the Excel Sports client is seeking $30MM annually.

As Crasnick notes, that annual target is a challenge for teams interested in Greinke not only due to its own enormity but also due to the fact that Greinke is older than the typical free-agent starter, set to embark on his age-32 campaign in 2016. Most recent multi-year deals of the magnitude Greinke is expected to command conclude in the pitcher’s age-36 season (at least in terms of guaranteed money), but that would cap Greinke at five years. Considering the historically excellent season he just delivered in 2015, however, it’s easy to envision Greinke’s camp seeking six or more years on a free-agent deal.

After all, Greinke’s 1.66 ERA was the lowest single-season mark by a qualified starting pitcher in the past two decades. He logged 222 2/3 innings in the regular season, averaging 8.1 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 and went on to toss 13 2/3 very solid innings in the playoffs as well. Greinke has been nothing short of brilliant in his three years with the Dodgers, compiling a 2.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 regular-season innings, plus a strikingly similar 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 postseason innings.

Greinke’s age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer are both knocks against him when compared to his primary competitors — David Price and Johnny Cueto — but Greinke is also coming off the best season of the three. Beyond that, the general consensus among scouts seems to be that Greinke will age better than many of his elite peers, somewhat lessening the sting of committing a contract of significant length. In addition to the Dodgers and Giants, Greinke has also been linked to the Red Sox and Cubs, though other large-market, high-payroll teams figure to have privately expressed some interest as well.

Rosenthal On Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cueto, Ross

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2015 at 9:01am CDT

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new notes column that contains quite a few Hot Stove related items. Some highlights from his latest piece…

There’s a belief in the industry that the Cardinals’ new television deal — which begins in 2018, when it will net the team $50MM and continue to rise to about $86MM, per Forbes — could allow the team to sign two premium free agents. Rosenthal adds, though, that the Cardinals could nonetheless be uncomfortable making the top bid for David Price or Jason Heyward and might be “reluctant” to commit the type of dollars Chris Davis will command.
Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
The Dodgers have at least discussed the possibility of signing both Greinke and Price internally, according to Rosenthal, but they’re unlikely to go that route. Even the Dodgers and their seemingly limitless budget aren’t keen on the notion of paying three starters in the vicinity of $30MM annually, and they already have one such pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.
That J.A. Happ landed a $36MM total from the Blue Jays could serve to increase the leverage that teams like the Indians and Rays have in talks for their starting pitchers. One exec told Rosenthal that “mediocre pitching” now costs a minimum of $30MM total. While that’s true enough, I don’t know that the Happ signing necessarily brought that realization about. We’ve seen players like Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and Ricky Nolasco clear the $30MM barrier in recent seasons, after all, and Happ’s final push in Pittsburgh shows he’s at least capable of pitching at a high level if those adjustments can be sustained.
The D-Backs’ interest in Johnny Cueto stems, in part, from the fact that he’s not tied to draft pick compensation. Arizona selects 13th overall next season and values that pick, Rosenthal writes. The team is reluctant to part with one of the top overall unprotected picks and probably isn’t likely to part with it for a second-tier starter (e.g. Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen). Arizona has already been tied to both Mike Leake and Kenta Maeda, either of whom could bolster the rotation without harming next year’s draft.
The Padres are still receiving plenty of interest in right-hander Tyson Ross but are only willing to move him for a “monster package,” as Rosenthal terms it. Ross is controlled for two more seasons, and MLBTR projects him to earn $10MM in 2016.
Prior to Colby Rasmus accepting their qualifying offer, the Astros considered making a run at Brett Gardner or a similar type of player to fill the club’s leadoff slot, per Rosenthal. Now, however, they’ll likely use Jose Altuve there as the primary option again in 2016.

Dodgers Interested In Zimmermann; Giants A “Threat” To Land Greinke

By Jeff Todd | November 20, 2015 at 9:41pm CDT

Righty Jordan Zimmermann is one of the Dodgers’ “top targets” among free agent starters, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (Twitter links). That shouldn’t be read as a shift of focus away from Zack Greinke, he adds, so much as an indication of the team’s affinity for Zimmermann.

That report comes on the heels of another suggesting that the Giants could be a “formidable threat” to land Greinke. As Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes, San Francisco is at least creating an impression in the marketplace that it is prepared for a serious pursuit of the talented — but less than youthful — veteran starter. Of course, the Giants are also said to be doing some diligence on David Price.

It’s always intriguing to consider these two division rivals competing over a player, but in truth the connection goes beyond the fact that only one can win the NL West. Los Angeles probably has more free agent spending capacity than any team in baseball right now — whether or not it chooses to use it — while their neighbors to the north seemingly saved their hefty war chest for this winter’s strong group of free agents. And, of course, both have obvious needs in the rotation.

One year ago, it wouldn’t have been surprising at all to expect to debate the relative merits of these two pitchers. At that point, Zimmermann was coming off of a season in which he looked like an improving, top-of-the-rotation arm, while Greinke was good but obviously not getting any younger.

Things have changed quite a bit in the meantime, though. The 29-year-old Zimmermann has lost some luster, while Greinke turned in a season for the ages. Of course, there’s an argument to be made that perceptions and recency bias could be clouding the situation, but it seems clear at this point that Greinke will out-earn his younger competitor.

All told, it remains far too early to get any kind of a reasonable read of the market. There’s arguably been more chatter surrounding Greinke than other top arms — it’s mostly been crickets, in particular, regarding Johnny Cueto — but as of yet there’s nothing to suggest any sort of clarity. Indeed, if anything, these reports serve only to confirm the fluidity at the top of the pitching market.

Free Agent Notes: Greinke, Soria, Hill, Parra, Anderson

By Jeff Todd | November 16, 2015 at 10:58pm CDT

It may not be wise to assume that the Dodgers will end up bringing back righty Zack Greinke, ESPNLos Angeles.com’s Mark Saxon writes. The team has shown indications that it is looking for younger, less expensive assets rather than huge veteran contracts. And Greinke himself may be less than thrilled with the clubhouse culture in L.A., leaving a “distaste” that “is believed to be a factor in his thinking.” Obviously, Greinke and the club thrived with his first contract, so it’s probably not worth writing off a return, but the report does suggest the interest may not be as clear as had generally been assumed.

Here’s the latest on some other free agent situations around the league:

The Tigers have “picked up” talks with reliever Joakim Soria but haven’t yet made him an offer, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports. Soria received one offer from an unknown team earlier in the offseason, says Beck, but the market has moved slowly as a potentially-active trade market for pen arms continues to sort itself out.
Lefty Rich Hill is expected to sign a contract this week, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. It’s not clear which club, but Bradford says it isn’t the Red Sox. Hill’s out-of-nowhere late-season run in Boston has made him an interesting piece of the market picture. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Hill will be able to secure a one-year deal with a $5MM guarantee.
The Mets have had contact with the representatives for free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, Marc Carig of Newsday reports on Twitter. Parra would, presumably, take part in a platoon with Juan Lagares, though that would mean relying on him rather heavily in center. While he’s played there, Parra has spent far more time in the corner outfield. And it could well be hard to find enough playing time to woo the 28-year-old, given that the club is rather heavily invested in Lagares and has two left-handed hitters (Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto) set to man the corners.
Dodgers lefty Brett Anderson spoke with reporters today about his decision to accept the $15.8MM qualifying offer, as Saxon reports. He indicated that he was hoping to continue to build his stock in advance of next year’s market, a risky but tantalizing strategy. On the one hand, Anderson has a lengthy injury history and is finally coming off of a healthy season; on the other, he’s still young, has mostly dealt with a few fluke injuries in recent years, and can look forward to a seller-friendly market next winter. “There were some multi-year deals out there, but my situation was a little unique and I just wanted to better myself,” Anderson said. “That, and I liked being in L.A., I liked my teammates, I liked everything about it other than the ending of the season.” Anderson also noted that he and the Dodgers had discussed a multi-year arrangement at some point and could again pursue some kind of deal, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Trade

By charliewilmoth | November 14, 2015 at 11:02am CDT

Here are a few notes on the Red Sox’ acquisition of Craig Kimbrel from the Padres last night for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen.

The trade is likely to represent the Red Sox’ biggest trade of the offseason, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says (via Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal on Twitter).
The Red Sox still need a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, but they’re likely to pursue that kind of player via the free agent market, Dombrowski tells reporters, including Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “My thought process is most likely any acquisition we’d make in the starting pitching would first happen as far as the free-agent field is concerned,” Dombrowski. “You never know, but that would be my guess.” Lauber does note that the team has spoken with executives from other teams about potential trade acquisitions, but the Athletics don’t seem inclined to trade Sonny Gray, and ditto with the White Sox and Chris Sale. That could mean the Red Sox sign David Price, Johnny Cueto or Zack Greinke.
The Red Sox’ decision to deal four good prospects for Kimbrel suggests a change in the team’s approach, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes. Former GM Ben Cherington built up talent in the Sox’ farm system but would probably have been reluctant to make such an aggressive trade. The Red Sox pursuing top free agent pitchers like Price, too, would have been unlikely under Cherington.
Trading so many prospects so early in his tenure represents a risk for Dombrowski, MacPherson writes. MacPherson cites Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who was new in town a few years back when his team sent a package that included DJ LeMahieu to Colorado for infielder Ian Stewart. “Those kind of mistakes happen when a regime comes in and they don’t know the guys as well,” says Hoyer. “They’re relying more on internal evaluations and scouting reports, third-hand information. Anytime you go to a new organization, those are your risks — and there are risks of being inactive because you’re worried about making mistakes, too.”
The Kimbrel deal was exactly the kind of trade Dombrowski was hired to make, writes Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Abraham notes that many commentators (like FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron and ESPN Insider’s Keith Law, for example) disliked the trade from the Red Sox’ perspective, but after two straight losing seasons, the Sox have tickets to sell, and Kimbrel will help sell them. For the Red Sox, prospects like Margot and Guerra were best viewed as trade chips.

2015 Qualifying Offer Decisions

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2015 at 4:26pm CDT

The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.

Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…

Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals’ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Earlier Updates

Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers’ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).

Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.

NL West Notes: Dodgers’ Targets, Giants, Padres, Rockies

By Jeff Todd | November 11, 2015 at 12:56pm CDT

The Dodgers are prioritizing Zack Greinke over David Price in free agency, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Los Angeles also has at least some interest in Daniel Murphy (as well as a return of Chase Utley, as previously reported elsewhere) as the team weighs the possibility of finding a left-handed hitter that can play second and third. While it’s not yet clear whether the Dodgers front office will ultimately be a team that paces actual free agent spending, it seems obvious that L.A. will play a major role in driving the market.

Cubs Notes: Free Agent Starters, Payroll, Montero

By Jeff Todd | November 11, 2015 at 9:28am CDT

The Cubs are set to meet this week with the representatives of several top free agent starters, including David Price, Zack Greinke, and Jordan Zimmermann, according to Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. That’s not exactly a surprise, as Chicago has long been rumored as a major factor in the upper-level pitching market, but it seems to confirm that the club is eyeing a major acquisition. It’s also interesting to consider that all three pitchers offer different blends of expectations and risk, as well as different anticipated years and dollars. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked all three within the top ten free agents on the market, predicting that Price (#1 overall) would end up with the Cubs.

Here are a few more notes on the Cubbies:

What the meetings probably don’t signify is any inclination by the Cubs’ brass to attempt to add two high-end free agents. As ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers reports, both president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have recently downplayed that possibility. “If we want to do two things we have to get pretty creative,” Epstein said, referring to managing payroll. “Even if we do one really big thing we have to get creative. We have the ability to add a little bit from where we are right now. I don’t think we have room to do everything that’s been speculated in some areas.”
The front office appears set to continue trying to build a consistent contender rather than gunning for 2016 success at all costs, as Hoyer suggested yesterday and Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports (subscription required). “Baseball is a sport that does involve some randomness,” said Hoyer. “To me, the goal is to win a lot of games and get to the postseason. If you do that year in, year out, that’s how you end up being good.” He went on to explain: “But if you put yourself in to be there every year, that’s the goal. Would it be disappointing if we didn’t make the playoffs? Absolutely. … Would I say it’s ’World Series or bust?’ That’s (not) a fair thing to put on a team.”
While some analysts have floated the concept of the Cubs dealing catcher Miguel Montero, Epstein says that’s not been considered, as Rogers reports.“We haven’t talked about that at all,” Epstein said. “[Montero] was a big part of helping our run prevention last year. His framing, his pitch calling. We set a record for strikeouts, we were third in ERA. He was a big part of that. It’s not something we’re looking to disrupt at all.” The emergence of Kyle Schwarber last year made it fair to at least wonder whether Montero could be moved, particularly since his salary ($14MM a year over the next two seasons) might be allocated elsewhere. But it does seem premature for the club to rely on Schwarber regularly behind the plate.

Crasnick On Price, Greinke, Heyward, Upton, Murphy, Starlin

By Steve Adams | November 10, 2015 at 4:32pm CDT

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick conducted his annual Hot Stove survey, polling a number of front-office executives and scouts about some of the top names available both in free agency and on the trade market. Crasnick asked respondents to weigh in on David Price vs. Zack Greinke; Jason Heyward vs. Justin Upton; Chris Davis vs. Yoenis Cespedes; which of Colby Rasmus or Daniel Murphy would be able to sustain some of his postseason success; which of Jeff Samardzija or Ian Desmond is a better rebound candidate; which of Javier Baez or Starlin Castro is more likely to be traded; and which of Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist or Johnny Cueto is likeliest to return to the Royals. Crasnick has full voting and plenty of quotes from execs/scouts for those who wish to read the piece in its entirety, but here are some particularly interesting highlights…

More respondents felt comfortable giving a nine-figure deal to Greinke than to Price, though the expectation is still that Price’s deal will top Greinke’s due to age. Crasnick quotes a pair of scouts that rave about Greinke’s delivery and how he can age well due to his intelligence and lack of reliance on pure velocity. One NL scout likened Greinke to Greg Maddux.
Heyward won the voting over Upton when asked which would perform better over the life of his next contract, though there was a reasonably even split, and many scouts quoted by Crasnick are concerned with Heyward’s reliance on defensive value and what one described to be a high-maintenance swing.
Murphy won the voting over Rasmus in their question, and one American League special assistant offered an interesting take to Crasnick: “If I was a team and I had a market for Murphy, I’d want him playing third base. I don’t like him at second. The ball finds him, like it did in the World Series. He got exposed there.” Murphy does have experience at third base, and we’ve mentioned him as a possible option for teams in need of help at the hot corner here at MLBTR, as the free-agent market presents little beyond Murphy and David Freese.
More respondents felt that Castro is likelier to be traded than Baez, even though as one scout put it, Baez would “fetch more of a haul.” An AL GM offered an interesting take on Castro’s contract, however, telling Crasnick: “Castro showed enough at two positions this year that his contract will seem like a fair deal once the free-agent class this year gets paid.” Castro, who is owed about $38MM over the next four seasons, certainly isn’t cheap and isn’t without his risks. He was a replacement-level player in 2013 and played that way for much of the 2015 season before his bat came to life late in the season following a switch to second base. Of course, Castro also sported an unsustainable .388 BABIP in September and October, which somewhat inflated his production.
Cespedes and Samardzija narrowly won the voting on their respective question, while Gordon was far and away the most popular answer in the Royals realm.

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