Zack Cozart

Latest On Angels’ Options At Third Base

By Jeff Todd | December 14, 2017 at 1:21pm CDT

It has been a highly productive offseason thus far for the Angels, who re-upped Justin Upton, signed Shohei Ohtani, and most recently dealt for Ian Kinsler — a swap in which the organization benefited from the fact that they were the preferred destination of Kinsler, whose carefully constructed partial no-trade list gave him ample leverage. Indications are that the club is now looking to improve at third base, perhaps leaving Luis Valbuena to function in more of a utility role. Here are the latest rumblings:

The Halos are considering free agent Zack Cozart as an option at the hot corner, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Though he’s a shortstop by trade, the market doesn’t admit of many obvious holes at that position. But Cozart isn’t just any shortstop: he’s elite at the position, repeatedly rating as one of the best fielders in baseball. With the legendarily slick-fielding Andrelton Simmons already locked in at short and top-quality Kinsler at second, the Angels could arrange one of the best-defending 4-5-6 trios in recent memory, helping to ameliorate any concerns with utilizing the aging Albert Pujols at first. Better still, Cozart — like the others — has also established a solid ceiling at the plate, though perhaps it’s not quite reasonable to expect the 32-year-old to keep up his .297/.385/.548 output from a breakout 2017 offensive season.
Trade is also a viable option for Los Angeles, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). As has been noted before, the Angels are one of several teams with possible interest in Padres third bagger Chase Headley. Headley and others are more likely to be added, at this point, than is free agent Mike Moustakas, according to Nightengale. “Moose” certainly has more home runs in his bat than the others under consideration and is also a more youthful option, though his contract is expected to reflect that and he remains a questionable performer in the on-base department. There’s nothing imminent on Headley or new teammate Yangervis Solarte, Scott Miller of Bleacher Report notes on Twitter. (Solarte has not emerged as a target of the Halos to this point, it should be noted.)
It also emerged yesterday that the Angels have interest in Todd Frazier, yet another free agent who could fill the team’s major remaining position-player need. Though it seemed at one point yesterday that the organization was nearing a move at third, it seems there are still several irons in the fire at this point.

NL West Notes: Headley, Padres, Darvish, Rockies, Davis

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2017 at 4:34pm CDT

Padres GM A.J. Preller discussed his team’s surprising acquisition of Chase Headley with reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), and the possibility exists that Headley will be flipped before Opening Day. “I talked to Chase this morning and explained to him that we’re going to look at the situation and figure out if there’s space for everybody, was very honest, telling him we’re going to talk to other clubs as well,” Preller said. Headley’s addition has also created a glut within San Diego’s infield, and Preller said that he has already received calls from teams about Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg, and Carlos Asuaje.

Some other rumblings from around the NL West…

The Dodgers are still in “active dialogue” with Yu Darvish, GM Farhan Zaidi told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters. Andrew Friedman said yesterday that the team was more focused on relievers than starters due to the number of depth rotation options already in the organization, though with Darvish’s market yet to fully develop, it only makes sense that L.A. would continue to check in with the ace righty. In regards to the Dodgers’ bullpen search, Zaidi noted that the team is looking for value additions rather than at the top of the market.
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich poured cold water on some speculation surrounding his team, telling Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (all Twitter links) and other reporters that the Rox aren’t involved in trade talks for Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna. Bridich also said that the club doesn’t have the payroll capability to shop at the very top of the free agent market for players like J.D. Martinez or Eric Hosmer. One player Colorado is involved with is Wade Davis, as Bridich confirmed that the team is still talking to the free agent closer.
The Padres’ rather surprising pursuit of Hosmer has drawn headlines, though Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller tweets that San Diego is more focused on either signing Zack Cozart or acquiring Freddy Galvis from the Phillies during the Winter Meetings. Either infielder would address a more pressing need at shortstop. Preller said (hat tip to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that the Padres have a list of eight or nine shortstop options that they feel could be acquired. Lin also hears from some rival officials that the Padres would possibly be open to dealing a young pitcher in exchange for a shortstop.

Middle Infield Market Notes: Padres, Hernandez, Lowrie, Kinsler

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2017 at 12:24pm CDT

The Padres are one of the only teams in baseball with a clear need at shortstop, and they appear to be shopping around the potential market. Per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer, via Twitter, San Diego has “real interest” in free agent Zack Cozart. He’ll surely command a fairly significant contract, though there may also be an opportunity to realize value given the lack of demand at short. The Friars are also looking into Phillies shortstop Freddy Galvis, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. Galvis is projected to earn a healthy $7.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, so he’d likely be available for a reasonable price — so long as the Phils decide it’s time to move on.

More on the market for middle infielders …

Meanwhile, the Phillies are said to be setting a fairly lofty price tag on second baseman Cesar Hernandez, per Heyman (Twitter link). The 27-year-old switch-hitter has established himself as a quality regular with two consecutive seasons of above-average offensive production and quality glovework. He’s projected to take home $4.7MM this year and is eligible to be tendered contracts for two more seasons. Hernandez is arguably the most valuable of the second basemen that can reasonably be considered plausible trade candidates.
Athletics second baseman Jed Lowrie is currently penciled into the organization’s everyday lineup, but Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that “it’s increasingly apparent that Lowrie could be on the move sooner rather than later.” The driving force here, it seems, isn’t so much salary — Lowrie’s reasonable $6MM tab still leaves the A’s room to work with — as it is opportunity. Oakland evidently sees a chance to get a strong return on Lowrie while working to improve in the outfield. Since Frankin Barreto could step into Lowrie’s shoes, the team may just be seeing a new and better way to allocate resources. The 33-year-old Lowrie had a strong bounceback season in 2017, turning in 645 plate appearances of .277/.360/.448 hitting.
All along, Tigers second bagger Ian Kinsler has seemed the likeliest player at his position to move. And it’s possible a deal could come together this week, GM Al Avila tells reporters including MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link). It’s a “possibility,” but not a certainty, that something will get done, according to Avila.

Cafardo’s Latest: Abreu, Giants, Rox, Pads, Braun, Reds, A’s, O’s

By Connor Byrne | December 10, 2017 at 10:35am CDT

The Red Sox are “very interested” in White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, which runs contrary to previous reports. The Cardinals are also after Abreu, Cafardo adds, which isn’t surprising for a team that just lost out on Giancarlo Stanton and continues to seek a power bat. Abreu, who will turn 31 in January, slashed .304/.354/.552 with 33 home runs in 675 plate appearances last season. He comes with two years of arbitration eligibility and will earn a lofty sum – a projected $17.9MM – in 2018. The White Sox want “top prospects” for Abreu, per Cafardo.

More from Cafardo, whose latest column previews the Winter Meetings for all 30 clubs:

With an obvious need at third base, the Giants are primed to go after the top two free agents at the hot corner – Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier – Cafardo notes. The 29-year-old Moustakas (a California native) figures to reel in a much larger pact than Frazier (32 in February). Moustakas is also a qualifying offer recipient, so signing him would cost the Giants their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2018 and $1MM in international bonus pool space.
Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison has drawn interest from the Rockies, per Cafardo. Signing Morrison, who MLBTR projects will land a three-year, $36MM payday this offseason, would presumably send Ian Desmond to the outfield full time as Carlos Gonzalez’ replacement. It could also give the Rockies a significant offensive boost, with the 30-year-old Morrison having slashed .246/.353/.516 with a personal-high 38 homers in 2017.
The shortstop-needy Padres will pursue the premier player available at the position, Zack Cozart, according to Cafardo. Cozart was one of the best players in the majors last season, pairing his usual excellent defense with uncharacteristically great offense (.297/.385/.548 with 24 homers in 507 PAs), but the longtime Red isn’t a free agent at a time when many teams are seeking a shortstop, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explained. That could negatively affect his market, then, though MLBTR still forecasts a respectable contract (three years, $42MM) for the 32-year-old.
The Brewers would consider proposals for left fielder Ryan Braun, Cafardo suggests. Milwaukee has no shortage of outfielders, which could open the door for a Braun trade, but moving him would be challenging. The 34-year-old posted one of his worst seasons in 2017, thanks in part to injuries, and still has $57MM coming his way (including a $4MM buyout in 2021). He also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player.
Along with the previously reported Raisel Iglesias, the Reds are “open to offers” for left fielder Adam Duvall, Cafardo relays. Duvall, 29, would provide cheap power to a team in need of it – he’s not eligible for arbitration until next winter and is fresh off his second 30-home run season in a row (though he hit an underwhelming .249/.301/.480 in 2017).
The Athletics expected to retain infielder Jed Lowrie as of October, but now they’d “certainly be willing” to trade him, Cafardo reports. Lowrie will enter his age-34 campaign in 2018, in which he’ll earn a very reasonable $6MM, after turning in one of the healthiest and best years of his career last season.
Orioles reliever Mychal Givens will be in “great demand” at the meetings, Cafardo writes. The 27-year-old is coming off his second terrific full season in a row and is under control for the next four years, including a pre-arb season in 2018. For those reasons, the Orioles may decide to keep the right-hander.

Free Agent Profile: Zack Cozart

By Mark Polishuk | November 29, 2017 at 4:23pm CDT

Zack Cozart’s huge 2017 season would seem like the perfect platform year as he enters free agency, though the veteran shortstop faces a complicated market and some inevitable questions about whether he can duplicate his breakout year.

Strengths/Pros

Defense has long been Cozart’s calling card. Since debuting in 2011, he ranks seventh in UZR/150 (+10.6) and 14th in Defensive Runs Saved (56) among all players in baseball with at least 6000 innings played. Among just shortstops in that same timeframe, Cozart is behind only the incomparable Andrelton Simmons in both categories and also behind Brandon Crawford in DRS. Cozart would provide a massive boost to any club looking to improve its run prevention.

Heading into last season, however, Cozart still hadn’t been able to move beyond his reputation as a glove-only player. He posted roughly average run-production numbers in 2015-16, though injuries and a major second-half fade in 2016 left doubts as to whether he could truly put it together at the plate. Those questions were answered in rather stunning fashion, as Cozart emerged as not just a solid bat, but one of baseball’s best overall hitters in 2017.

The numbers are startling — a .297/.385/.548 slash line over 507 PA, 24 homers, 80 runs scored, and almost as many walks (62) as strikeouts (78). Cozart’s 141 OPS+ was topped by just 15 players in the entire league, with an overall 5.0 fWAR surpassed by only 16 players. In fact, Cozart also has the highest 2017 fWAR total of the entire 2017-18 free agent class, counting both hitters and pitchers.

Cozart was no creation of the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, as he hit well both at home (.958 OPS) and on the road (.900 OPS). He also displayed a nice balance against all pitchers, crushing lefties to the tune of a 1.059 OPS while also hitting right-handed pitching hard (.896 OPS).

While he set new career bests in virtually every offensive category, most of Cozart’s advanced metrics are not too far removed from his normal career rates. His homer rate did spike, and his swinging-strike and overall swing rates both dropped significantly from his career norms. This increased plate discipline bodes well for Cozart’s ability to continue an above-average level of hitting, even if he may not again reach the peak of his 2017 production.

Weaknesses/Cons

While he still outperformed many hitters who received well more than 507 plate appearances, Cozart was again hampered by injuries, as quad injuries to both legs limited him to just 122 games. Between the quad problems, a torn knee ligament in 2015 and continued knee issues in 2016, Cozart has played in just 296 of the Reds’ 486 games over the last three seasons. This lack of durability and the fact that Cozart just turned 32 last August will give some teams pause before considering him for a pricey multi-year contract.

It’s worth noting that last season was one of Cozart’s lesser defensive years, as he delivered “only” a +6.2 UZR/150 and +2 DRS. Obviously these are still fine numbers, though it could hint that the years of leg problems are beginning to impact Cozart’s glovework. It certainly seems like the injuries could be hurting Cozart on the basepaths, given that Fangraphs’ BsR metric has indicated subpar baserunning totals in each of the two seasons since his knee surgery.

While Cozart would hardly be the first player to blossom later in his career, his continuing to be a top-15 hitter in 2018 would be even more of a surprise than his 2017 breakout. As per Statcast, Cozart’s expected weighted on-base average (.332) was well below his actual .399 wOBA thanks to his middling launch angle and exit velocity numbers — that 0.067 gap between the two categories was the second-largest of any player in baseball with at least 200 at-bats in 2017.

In fairness, Cozart has specifically tailored his swing and plate approach to account for his general lack of hard contact, and to focus on a level swing rather than aiming to put the ball in the air. This makes him an interesting outlier among modern hitters, though his power surge may have less to do with swing changes than it does (as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron recently observed) with the livelier baseballs reportedly used in MLB play over the last two years. If Cameron’s argument is correct, Cozart’s home run numbers could be in particular danger of regression if there are further alterations in how the balls are produced.

Cozart said back in April that he’d actually been feeling more comfortable hitting over two years ago due to increased aggressiveness at the plate, so between that and a minor swing tweak from last Spring Training, above-average production could be a new normal for Cozart. Still, his 2017 numbers were so far beyond his career averages that some amount of regression seems inevitable.

Personal

A native of Memphis, Tennessee, Cozart was a second-round pick for the Reds in the 2007 draft after three years of college ball at the University of Mississippi. His collegiate success earned him a spot on the United States’ gold medal-winning team in the 2006 World University Championship.

As one of the few long-term veterans on the rebuilding Reds, Cozart earned the nickname of “Coach” for his leadership role within the young clubhouse. Cozart was named as the Reds’ recipient of the 2016 Heart & Hustle Award by the MLB Players Alumni Association.

On a lighter note, the Cozart family welcomed a new pet into the fold this past summer, thanks to Joey Votto’s promise to buy his teammate a donkey if Cozart made the NL All-Star roster.

Market

While Cozart is far and away the top free agent shortstop available this winter, his biggest issue could be that the shortstop market itself isn’t very large. Most contenders or would-be contenders already have a shortstop in place, and several of the teams with a hole at the position (such as the Marlins or Padres) are in a rebuilding phase.

This would seem to at least create the possibility that Cozart remains in Cincinnati. The two sides shared some interest in working out a contract extension last summer, and while it would be somewhat unusual to see Cozart become a long-term piece for the club after two years of trade rumors, the Reds may have changed course after seeing him emerge as a hitter. The Reds could decide to go with Cozart and Scooter Gennett (another breakout player in 2017) in the middle infield, leaving Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera for backup or utility roles, or the team could shop one of those young and controllable talents for some much-needed pitching help.

Looking at other possible suitors, there are a lot of “maybe, if…” situations that could see a team make a play for Cozart. The Orioles or Royals could be fits if they aren’t respectively sold on Tim Beckham or Raul Mondesi Jr. as everyday shortstops (and if Kansas City doesn’t enter a rebuild itself). The Pirates or Rays would need to carve out payroll space, or the Cardinals could get into the mix if they sold high on Paul DeJong in another trade.

Perhaps the easier path to locating Cozart’s next team is to look for openings at second or third base. This could require a change of heart from Cozart, as he reportedly “feels strongly” about sticking at his usual position, though he might have no choice but to become more flexible given the lack of shortstop vacancies. Cozart’s reps at Excel Sports Management could pitch their client both as a regular starter at one position, or as an everyday contributor that could get 600 PA while receiving a couple of starts per week at shortstop, second and third. The Angels have already considered Cozart as a second baseman, and a position switch could also get teams like the Mets, Giants, Blue Jays, or Braves interested.

One plus for Cozart’s market is that the Reds declined to issue him a qualifying offer, so another team can sign him without having to surrender any draft pick compensation.

Expected Contract

MLBTR predicts Cozart will find a three-year, $42MM deal this winter, though this could be a pretty fluid projection depending on whether or not Cozart is open to a position change. While Cozart’s age could be an obstacle in finding a fourth guaranteed year, you’d think multiple teams would love to find space for a player coming off a five-win season somewhere around the infield, maybe even to the point of making room at shortstop.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Angels Considering Ian Kinsler, Neil Walker, Zack Cozart

By Steve Adams | November 15, 2017 at 7:05pm CDT

The Angels have had “extensive” internal discussions about the possibility of acquiring Ian Kinsler from the Tigers, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. While Fenech notes that it’s not yet clear if the two sides have opened negotiations this offseason, he adds that the Halos’ interest in Kinsler dates back to late last season.

While Kinsler is certainly a logical target for any club in need of a second baseman, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register casts some doubt onto how seriously they’ll actually pursue a trade for the 35-year-old (Twitter link). Fletcher points out that Kinsler is probably a genuine consideration, it’s unlikely that he sits atop the Halos’ list of targets due to the fact that he’s a right-handed bat and would only represent a one-year solution.

Two players that also appear to be on the Angels’ list of targets are free agents Neil Walker and Zack Cozart, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). As Crasnick notes, though, it’s not clear if Cozart would be willing to move off of shortstop. He’s also a right-handed bat, though perhaps the Angels would live with that in order to have a defensively gifted middle-infield duo of Andrelton Simmons and Cozart for the foreseeable future.

Kinsler had a down year at the plate in 2017, hitting .236/.313/.412 in 613 plate appearances. Though his average, OBP and slugging marks all fell off considerably from a superlative 2016 season (.288/.348/.484), Kinsler still connected on 22 homers this past season and exhibited other encouraging signs.

For starters, the nine percent walk rate Kinsler logged in 2017 was his highest since the 2011 season, and his 14 percent strikeout rate was not only an improvement over the ’16 campaign but also tied for the 27th-lowest mark among qualified big league hitters. Kinsler’s 37 percent hard-contact rate was the highest mark of his career as well, but despite the uptick in hard-hit balls his BABIP plummeted to .244. Granted, some of that is attributable to a career-worst 14.4 percent infield fly rate, but the rest of his batted-ball profile suggests that Kinsler could be due for some better fortune in 2018. On the defensive side of the coin, Kinsler remains an excellent option and one of the more underrated defensive players in all of baseball, regardless of position.

Walker, 32, is the most obvious fit on the free-agent market. The switch-hitting second baseman would add the lineup balance that the Angels seem to crave, and he’s been an above-average hitter and steady defender at second base throughout his big league career. The limited number of teams aggressively pursuing second base upgrades and some recent durability issues could suppress Walker’s price point as well; we pegged him for a two-year deal worth $11MM per year on our top 50 free agent list, and while a third year is possible, it’d be a genuine surprise to Walker command anything longer than that.

Cozart is perhaps the most intriguing option of the bunch. The longtime Reds shortstop had a breakout season at the plate in his age-32 season, batting a ridiculous .297/.385/.548 with 24 homers in just 507 trips to the plate. Durability is a very real knock on Cozart, who hasn’t played more than 122 games in a season since 2014 due to a torn knee ligament (2014) and myriad hamstring and quadriceps issues across the past two seasons.

There are also skeptics when it comes to Cozart’s age-32 breakout, but even if his bat settles in at the .271/.340/.480 (115 OPS+) that he’s averaged across the past three seasons, that above-average output and Cozart’s strong glovework would make him an immensely valuable asset. As Crasnick alludes to, however, Cozart is a sterling defensive shortstop and it’s not known if he’d be willing to change positions to better position himself on the open market.

Regardless of the order of their preferences, it seems clear that the Halos are likely to add a second base upgrade this winter. The position is an easily identifiable area of need, as Angels second basemen collectively posted a ghastly .206/.274/.327 batting line in 2017, making them one of the two least-productive second base units in all of Major League Baseball. (The Rangers, weighed down by a dismal season from Rougned Odor, struggled similarly.)

In addition to the options listed by Fenech and Crasnick, the trade market contains options such as Dee Gordon and Cesar Hernandez, as well as more speculative candidates like Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Villar and Joe Panik (to name only a few).

Reds Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Zack Cozart

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2017 at 1:43pm CDT

The Reds have “officially” decided against issuing a qualifying offer to shortstop Zack Cozart, tweets Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. FanRag’s Jon Heyman and others have recently painted the chances of such an offer for Cozart as unlikely. The lack of a QO should boost Cozart’s free-agent stock as he heads into the open market on the heels of a career year.

Cozart, 32, batted .297/.385/.548 with a career-high 24 home runs, 24 doubles and seven triples (also a career-high) in 2017. Though hamstring and quadriceps injuries limited him to 122 games, Cozart’s explosive bat and typically strong glovework at shortstop led to a five-WAR season in the eyes of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.

The rebuilding Reds, however, ultimately opted not to extend a $17.4MM one-year offer to Cozart due to a lack of a clear market for shortstops in free agency. Cincinnati apparently did not wish to risk Cozart accepting that offer and potentially bringing the team’s payroll north of $100MM before the offseason even began. Of course, the decision not to extent the QO also means that they’ll see one of the team’s best players walk without any form of compensation for his services.

Qualifying Offer Rumors: Monday

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2017 at 1:15pm CDT

Teams have until 5pm ET tonight to issue one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers to their impending free agents if they wish to recoup draft pick compensation in the event that their free agent(s) depart and sign elsewhere. Those unfamiliar with the process can refer back to a lengthy exploration of the QO system (penned by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk), which was revamped last winter in the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement.

For those looking for a Cliff’s Notes-esque refresher, here’s the QO system in a few sentences. MLB teams can issue a one-year offer worth the mean salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players to an impending free agent in order to receive compensation in the next year’s draft. A player can receive a qualifying offer only once in his career and is eligible to receive a QO if and only if he spent the entire season with his club. Players that accept a QO are considered signed and cannot be traded until June 15 of the upcoming season. Players have 10 days to decide whether to accept or reject.

The new CBA places the standard compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B — meaning it should fall somewhere between picks 70 to 80. Elements like revenue sharing, luxury tax penalization and size of the player’s new contract can all impact the placement of the comp pick, however. Teams that sign a player who rejected a QO will be required to forfeit at least one pick in the next year’s draft. Each team’s top pick is protected, but the placement of forfeited pick(s) is dependent on the luxury tax and revenue sharing. International pool money may also need to be forfeited. (Again, I’d highly recommend checking out Mark’s piece, in full, for more details.)

Here are today’s rumors…

MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian calls it a “safe bet” that the Indians will issue a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana (Twitter link). The 31-year-old switch-hitter batted .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and career-best work at first base in 2017. While the market for corner bats hasn’t been great in recent years, Santana’s defensive improvements, power and longstanding reputation as one of baseball’s most patient hitters (career 15.2 percent walk rate) should serve him well on the open market even with draft-pick compensation attached to his name.

Earlier Updates

Reds shortstop Zack Cozart is still unlikely to receive a qualifying offer, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). That’s been the direction in which Cincinnati has reportedly been leaning for the past couple of weeks, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon hears that the Reds are still debating the QO for Cozart. Despite the Reds’ rebuilding status, it still seems surprising that they could let him walk for no compensation. Cozart had a breakout .297/.385/.548 season at the plate in 2017 and even in the two years prior was a roughly league-average bat with well-above average defense at shortstop. He should be able to top $17.4MM by a wide margin in free agency, and even if he accepts, he’d be a bargain at that rate. The Reds do already have $86MM worth of payroll commitments and arbitration projections for next season, but there are other areas (non-tenders, trades) that they could trim from the payroll if need be..
Some players — Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Lance Lynn — have long seemed like locks to receive a QO. Alex Cobb, too, has stood out as a logical recipient, though the Rays’ payroll limitations at least cast some doubt on that possibility. Heyman reported last night that Cobb would receive a QO, and it’s been reported by multiple outlets that each member of that Royals trio will receive a QO as well.

NL Central Notes: Cozart, Cubs, Cardinals

By Steve Adams | October 31, 2017 at 10:10pm CDT

Despite coming off a roughly five-win season, Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could face a difficult market in free agency, writes Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Buchanan quotes an exec from the American League and another from the National League who suggested that Cozart would struggle to match even the three-year, $40MM pact attained by J.J. Hardy at a similar age three offseasons ago. A lack of contending teams in clear need of a shortstop is working against Cozart, as is the fact that he doesn’t have a track record of producing at his 2017 levels. An NL exec opined that Cozart could expand his market by adopting a super-utility role in which he started a couple of times per week at shortstop, second base and third base, though Buchanan notes that Cozart “feels strongly” about remaining a shortstop. Cincinnati is thought to be “leaning heavily against” a qualifying offer for Cozart, per Buchanan, which would certainly help his free-agent stock. From my view, it still seems likely that a team will ultimately see Cozart as too good a value not to find a spot for him at a certain point. It’s difficult to see his market falling below even the three-year, $33-36MM range, as even if he doesn’t replicate his 2017 excellence at the plate, he could still be reasonably expected to more than justify that level of commitment.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

The Cubs need to replace 40 percent of their starting rotation in 2018, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score, adding that the team is “expected” to pursue an acquisition similar to its July pickup of Jose Quintana (i.e. a controllable arm on the trade market). Levine speculatively lists former Cub Jeff Samardzija (now the Giants and owed $58.5MM through 2020) and Rays right-hander Chris Archer (owed $34MM through 2021, with the final two years being club options) as possibilities. Of course, the Giants have shown no inclination that they’ll be selling off veteran pieces this winter, and the Rays have no pressure to move Archer, whose contract is one of the most affordable commitments to any established starter in the big leagues. Levine also notes Alex Cobb as a potential free-agent target, noting the righty’s connection to manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey — each of whom knows Cobb well from their days with the Rays.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has posted highlights from a lengthy, comprehensive chat on the Cardinals and their offseason plans. There are more than a dozen interesting scenarios covered within, including the team’s search for a closer, the need to add a known quantity to the middle of the lineup and the possibility (or lack thereof) various players currently on the roster will be moved. Goold notes that the Cardinals have had interest in Brandon Morrow on multiple occasions in the past and notes that he could well be a target if the Cardinals ultimately decide to pursue multiple arms and have a competition for the ninth inning next spring. He also adds that St. Louis will likely pursue top-end closers (e.g. Wade Davis, Greg Holland), though the Cards will have obvious competition on that front. Any who track the offseason closely, especially fans of the Cardinals or other clubs in the NL Central, will want to take a full look for some insight into the Redbirds’ upcoming plans.

West Notes: Taylor, Joc, Rangers, QO, A’s

By Jeff Todd | October 27, 2017 at 12:18am CDT

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto understandably regrets the deal that sent Chris Taylor to the Dodgers,telling Matt Calkins of the Seattle Times that “it’s clearly the worst deal I’ve ever made.” The veteran baseball executive surely had little reason to expect Taylor to break through as he has, but he still says he “whiffed” by parting with such a controllable player for a pitcher (Zach Lee) that has not worked out.

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