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Zach Eflin

Zach Eflin Avoids Injured List, Cleared To Start Tuesday

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Rays fans were bracing for bad news when righty Zach Eflin exited his most recent start after four innings and went for an MRI on his left knee, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that he’s expected to avoid the injured list entirely. Eflin threw a 25-pitch bullpen session over the weekend and is now slated to start Tuesday against the Yankees. He’s not expected to have any limitations on his workload tomorrow.

It’s a sigh of relief for a Rays club that already lost Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the season. A third major injury would’ve surely accelerated Tampa Bay’s pursuit for rotation help, which has been ongoing, but it seems Eflin has avoided an injury of any real note. The right-hander’s chronic knee issues are well known; he’s spoken openly about them in the past, underwent surgery on both knees in 2016 and had a second surgery on his right knee in 2021.

That history of knee issues didn’t dissuade the Rays from making an aggressive bid to sign Eflin in free agency, ultimately inking him on a three-year, $40MM contract. He’s in the midst of perhaps the finest season of his career, tossing 116 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with a strong 25.2% strikeout rate, a masterful 3.7% walk rate and a career-high 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’ll remain in the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow and Taj Bradley.

The Rays were in the market for starting pitching help even before Eflin’s injury scare, and it stands to reason they’ll still be poking around that market, albeit with less urgency than if Eflin had endured a significant injury. Tampa Bay has been connected to the Cardinals’ available starters, and while Jordan Montgomery has since been traded to the Rangers, righty Jack Flaherty remains on the block. They were also tied to Marcus Stroman a few weeks ago, but that was before the Cubs rattled off an eight-game winning streak that thrust them back into the competition in the NL Central. He’s now unlikely to be moved. Lance Lynn, another Rays target, has since been traded to the Dodgers.

Even with those misses, there are still several names available. Michael Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale and old friend Rich Hill are just some of the many pitchers whose names have been bandied about the rumor circuit over the past week or so.

Zach Eflin Headed For MRI On Left Knee

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Rays right-hander Zach Eflin exited today’s game after just four innings, and he’s now headed for an MRI after experiencing discomfort in his left knee, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. It’s an ominous development both for a pitcher with chronic knee issues and a Rays rotation that has already been clobbered by injuries in 2023.

Eflin, 29, signed a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $40MM in Tampa Bay this offseason — the largest free-agent expenditure (though not the largest overall contract) in Rays history. He entered play with a 3.36 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and sensational 3.6% walk rate in 112 1/3 innings — already his highest total since 2019. However, Eflin was hit hard today, yielding five runs on seven hits and a walk, and he departed after four innings.

Eflin has spoken openly about his battles with knee problems that date back to before he was even drafted. He underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in both knees back in 2016, and in 2021 he underwent a second surgery on his right knee. Further problems in that right knee sidelined Eflin for more than two months last summer.

That Eflin’s current issue is in his left knee and not his twice-repaired right knee isn’t likely to be a source of much comfort for the Rays and their fans. The team was surely wary of the risk of renewed knee problems when signing Eflin, though his performance to this point in the season does plenty to highlight why the Tampa Bay front office was willing to take that gamble.

The Rays are already dealing with several notable injuries in the rotation. Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery last September and isn’t expected to pitch in 2023. Jeffrey Springs underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year and won’t return until 2024. Drew Rasmussen’s season is also over, owing to surgery to repair a flexor tear. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 60-day injured list due to an elbow issue.

Tampa Bay is already known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and any absence of note for Eflin would only hasten their pursuits. They’ve been linked to the Cardinals’ rental starters and were reported this morning to be in talks with the White Sox on right-hander Lance Lynn.

With sudden uncertainty regarding Eflin’s health, the Rays’ only three healthy starters are Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow and rookie Taj Bradley. It’s a talented trio, but injuries have thinned out the team’s depth and contributed to the Rays’ slide in the standings after a dominant start to the season. President of baseball operations Erik Neander, GM Peter Bendix and the rest of the staff seem all but certain to augment the rotation between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline.

The Rays’ Biggest Free Agent Investment Is Paying Off

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While the Rays aren’t exactly threatening the luxury tax threshold any time soon, the team has been increasingly open to at least some modest spending over the last couple of years.  Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension is obviously the headliner of those moves, but Tampa Bay has also locked up the likes of Jeffrey Springs (four years/$31MM), Yandy Diaz (three years/$24MM), Pete Fairbanks (three years/$12MM), Tyler Glasnow (two years/$30.35MM), and Manuel Margot (two years/$19MM) to multi-year commitments.

These deals were all extensions, however, and thus Zach Eflin’s three-year, $40MM contract from last winter was more of an outlier in franchise history.  The $40MM represented the most money the Rays have ever given to a free agent over the franchise’s 26 seasons of existence.  The Rays’ willingness to make such an expenditure surprised some pundits, for both financial and baseball-related reasons — why was a lower-spending team deep in starting pitching willing to take a relatively big (by their standards) plunge on a starter with a checkered health history?

Three months into the 2023 season, Tampa’s decision is looking quite wise.  In the latest example of the “you can never have too much pitching” credo, the Rays’ rotation depth has been tested by multiple injuries.  Springs underwent Tommy John surgery, and Drew Rasmussen (flexor strain) and Josh Fleming (elbow soreness) are both on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least August.  Glasnow didn’t make his season debut until late May, after recovering from his own rehab from a Tommy John procedure in 2021.

Against the backdrop of these injury concerns, Eflin’s production has been invaluable.  While the righty had a minimum 15-day IL stint himself in April due to back tightness, Eflin has been a stabilizing force within the rotation, and one of many reasons why the Rays have baseball’s best record.

Over 90 1/3 innings this season, Eflin has a 3.29 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate.  The K% is Eflin’s highest over a “full” season (he had a 28.6% strikeout rate over 59 innings in the shortened 2020 campaign), while his walk rate is among the league’s best for the third straight year.  The righty’s 52.7% grounder rate is also a career best, while his 37.8% hard-hit ball rate is (if only slightly) above the league average.  There isn’t much variance between Eflin’s real-world stats and his expected stats, as his 3.34 SIERA and .277 xwOBA are almost identical to his 3.29 ERA and .274 wOBA.

Eflin is getting great results from his sinker, which has been his primary pitch since 2020.  However, he is throwing the sinker only 34.7% of time, teaming it in a slightly more even mix with his curve (28.7% usage) and cutter (27.8%).  As such, Eflin’s curveball has now also become a premium offering, and the sinker/curve combo has helped offset the cutter’s much shakier results.  Combined with the occasional usage of a changeup and four-seamer to keep batters guessing, and Eflin is on pace for a career year in his age-29 season.

The biggest difference for Eflin in 2023, however, is just that he has thus far been pretty healthy.  His 90 1/3 innings already marks the fourth-highest innings total of his eight MLB seasons, and he threw only 86 1/3 total frames in the regular season and postseason with the Phillies in 2022.  He missed time last year due to a knee contusion, continuing the theme of knee problems that have plagued Eflin throughout his career — patellar-tendon surgeries on both knees in 2016, and then another patellar tendon procedure on his right knee in 2021.  Philadelphia opted to use Eflin out of the bullpen after he returned from the IL last season, in order to get him on the mound in some capacity rather than spend more time fully building up his arm for a starter’s workload.

There hasn’t been any suggestion of an innings limit for Eflin, and though he has yet to pitch more than seven innings in a game this season, that is probably more due to Tampa Bay’s general approach to starter usage more than any specific intent to keep Eflin fresh.  His career high for innings was 163 1/3 frames for the Phillies in 2019, so assuming good health from here on out, there is still quite a ways to go before Eflin or the Rays might have any concerns about his workload.  With the Rays on pace for another postseason appearance, they certainly hope Eflin can pitch throughout October, and the potential returns of Rasmussen and Fleming will continue to impact the team’s pitching plans.

Rays Activate Zach Eflin, DFA Hector Perez

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According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays have activated right-hander Zach Eflin from the 15-day IL to start this afternoon’s game against the White Sox. In a corresponding move, the club has designated right-hander Hector Perez for assignment.

Eflin’s return will help fortify a Rays rotation currently wracked with injuries. In addition to Tyler Glasnow having yet to make his debut this season thanks to an oblique strain, breakout left-hander Jeffrey Springs saw his season end last week when it was announced he is set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Eflin, who signed a three-year, $40MM deal to join the Rays over the offseason, had a 3.27 ERA and 2.63 FIP in two starts before being placed on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness. The ailment clearly proved to be minor, as Eflin is returning after a backdated minimum stay on the IL.

That’s good news for the Rays, who now have another reliable arm in the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and prospect Taj Bradley. With Bradley and Rasmussen set to pitch the next two days, the Rays will need another starter on Wednesday, though it’s possible they could turn to a bullpen game led by lefty Josh Fleming, who opened the season in the rotation but has since been bumped to the bullpen after struggling in his first start of the season.

As for Perez, the 26-year-old right-hander was selected just yesterday and did not end up making an appearance during his stint on the roster. Perez has made just one appearance in his big league career, a 1 2/3 inning outing with the Blue Jays in 2020 during which he surrendered two runs on three hits and three walks. Perez has long struggled with his control, as evidenced by his career 14.4% walk rate. Those control problems have likely contributed to his struggles to return to a major league mound over the past three seasons. The Rays will now have seven days to trade, waive, or release Perez.

Rays Notes: Ballpark, Eflin, Siri, Thompson, Glasnow

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The Rays “seem to be making progress” on a new ballpark, principal owner Stuart Sternberg told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  While the organization has still been talking with Tampa officials about the possibility of building a long-awaited new stadium in that city, Sternberg said “we’ve been focused on” remaining in St. Petersburg, and a proposed plan that would see the Rays’ new home built near the current site of Tropicana Field.

The stadium would be the centerpiece of a major redevelopment project similar to other recent “ballpark villages” in Atlanta and St. Louis, as the Rays’ new yard would be surrounded by new housing, shopping centers, restaurants, and entertainment venues.  Nothing has been finalized about either the ballpark project or the larger revitalization project, as Sternberg said “We’re working at both and neither one is easy….The county and the city are really working beautifully together, so that’s part of the reason why we’re all optimistic.”

While the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field runs through the 2027 season, there has long been a push from ownership to figure out a new ballpark situation sooner rather than later, with the Rays at one point even exploring an idea to split their home schedule between Tampa and Montreal (in new ballparks in both cities).  However, it does now appear that at least some momentum seems to be building towards the Rays staying in St. Pete, which must count as some relief to fans after years of speculation about a possible move.

With the Athletics now on the verge of officially moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, Sternberg commented on the situation, saying that “It’s in all of baseball’s interests to have the A’s and any baseball team on the firmest footing possible.”  By this same logic, Sternberg supported commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision to waive a relocation fee, noting that to help a team regain stability, it doesn’t fit for the league “to say ‘Look, we’re going to let you move and your revenues are going to go up but we’re going to take them all from you.’ ”

In some Rays news on the field, the team will get some reinforcements back from the injured list starting tomorrow, when Zach Eflin will activated to start Sunday’s game against the White Sox.  Eflin’s placement on the 15-day IL was retroactive to April 8, but since his bout of back tightness proved to be minor, he’ll be able to return on the first day of eligibility.  After signing a three-year, $40MM free agent deal with Tampa Bay during the offseason, Eflin looked sharp in his first two starts with his new club, posting a 3.27 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk over 11 innings.

Jose Siri was also off to an impressive start before beginning an IL stint on April 8, as a hamstring strain put the center fielder on the sidelines.  Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) that Siri will be re-evaluated following a two-game minor league rehab assignment.  Siri played the first of those two games yesterday as a DH with Triple-A Durham, and he’ll take today off before playing center field for Durham in Sunday’s contest.

If all goes well, Siri might be activated as early as Monday, when the Rays begin a series against Houston.  By coincidence, the Astros were also the team who dealt Siri to Tampa last year at the trade deadline, and after showing his mettle as a defender, Siri has now started to break out at the plate.  He hit .318/.333/.682 with two home runs in his first 24 plate appearances before suffering his hamstring strain.

Ryan Thompson also looks to be facing a “very minimal” IL stint, Cash said, which could mean the reliever might return from the 15-day injured list on April 28, when first eligible.  Thompson suffered a right lat strain after posting a 3.18 ERA over his first 5 2/3 innings of work out of Tampa’s bullpen.

The timeline isn’t as clear for Tyler Glasnow, who was given an initial window of 6-to-8 weeks when he first suffered his Grade 2 oblique strain at the end of February.  Cash said Glasnow was slated for two innings of live batting practice in extended Spring Training work on Monday, which comes on the heels of a pair of bullpen sessions earlier this month.  The Rays are aiming for Glasnow to be ready by around the middle of May, once he is fully ramped up after missing such a big chunk of Spring Training work.

Rays Promote Taj Bradley, Place Zach Eflin On IL

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The Rays have placed right-hander Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness, per broadcaster Neil Solondz. Pitching prospect Taj Bradley has been recalled to take his place and will make his major league debut on Wednesday. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times previously reported that these moves were imminent. Eflin’s IL placement is backdated to April 8, per Topkin.

Bradley, 22, was selected by the club in the fifth round of the 2018 draft. Since that time, he has continued to impress on the farm, moving up the minor league ladder and prospect lists. He pitched in Rookie Ball in 2018 and 2019, but then saw the minor leagues canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He split the following season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, throwing 103 1/3 innings with a 1.83 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Last year, he went through Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 133 1/3 frames with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 26.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.2%.

Bradley is currently considered the #42 prospect in the game by Baseball America, #18 by MLB Pipeline, #60 by ESPN, #52 by Keith Law of The Athletic and #37 by FanGraphs. He was eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December but the Rays made the easy decision to add him to their 40-man roster to prevent him from being selected. That means he already has a roster spot but he’ll be making his MLB debut tomorrow.

The Rays are off to an incredible 10-0 start here this season, with their pitching playing a large role in that. They’ve only allowed 18 runs in those 10 games, easily the fewest in baseball with the Brewers next on the list at 26. Tampa’s schedule has been on the weaker side thus far, with their first nine games coming against the Tigers, Nationals and A’s, three of the worst teams last year. Nonetheless, they’ve gotten great results from their rotation, even with Shane Baz recovering from Tommy John surgery and Tyler Glasnow on the IL with an oblique strain. Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Eflin have all been great so far this season. Josh Fleming got roughed up in his first start but tossed four scoreless innings behind an opener in his second appearance.

Bradley will now check into that group for Eflin, at least for the time being. Solondz relays that manager Kevin Cash and Eflin both expect the latter to have a minimal stay on the IL, which would mean he’d only miss a couple of starts. The righty hasn’t exactly been a paragon of health in his career, as recurring knee issues have limited his workload over the years. He’s only once thrown 130 innings in a season, which was the 163 1/3 frames he tossed in 2019. He tells Topkin that he’s dealt with this back issue in the past and isn’t too concerned.

If those expectations come to pass and Eflin returns in a couple weeks, then it’s possible Bradley gets sent back down to Triple-A. That will likely depend on his performance, as well as that of Fleming and the health of the entire crew. There’s also the return of Glasnow on the horizon, which seems to potentially be slated for mid-May.

If it ends up coming to pass that Bradley sticks with the big league club for the rest of the season, he will be able to earn a full year of service time, just barely. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs only to spend 172 of those in the majors, or on the injured list, in order to earn a full “year” of service time. Bradley has missed 12 days of the season thus far, giving him just enough time to creep over the one-year line, though getting optioned later in the year will obviously impact that trajectory.

In the event he does get that full year, he will be eligible for the prospect promotion incentive. As part of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, if a player has less than 60 days of service time and is on two out of the three top 100 prospects lists from Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline then earns a full year of service as a rookie, they become PPI eligible. If they then win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting before reaching their arbitration years, they can net their club an extra draft pick. This already happened once when Julio Rodríguez won American League Rookie of the Year last year, getting the Mariners an extra draft pick after the first round. Bradley is on all three of those prospect lists and is therefore in the mix for earning PPI eligibility this year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays Designate J.P. Feyereisen For Assignment, Expect To Trade Him

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10:40am: At the press conference to introduce Eflin, general manager Peter Bendix said the Rays fully expect to find a trade partner for Feyereisen (Twitter link via Topkin).

9:58am: The Rays have designated right-hander J.P. Feyereisen for assignment in order to open a spot on then roster for right-hander Zach Eflin, whose previously reported three-year deal is now official.

While Feyereisen’s DFA might raise some eyebrows, given a sensational 2022 season in which he pitched 24 1/3 shutout innings for Tampa Bay with a 25-to-5 K/BB ratio, the decision comes less than a week after the right-hander required surgery to repair the labrum and rotator cuff in his ailing right shoulder. Feyereisen won’t throw a ball for at least four months and is expected to be shelved well into the 2023 season. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Feyereisen isn’t expected back until late August.

Prior to the 2022 season, Feyereisen had enjoyed success in the upper minors but displayed more red flags in the big leagues. A 2.73 ERA in 56 innings between the Brewers and the Rays in 2021 was clearly encouraging, but Feyereisen walked a whopping 14.1% of his opponents that season, making that output appear unsustainable. The Rays, however, managed to sharpen his command in 2022, as he fanned 29.1% of hitters against a tidy 5.8% walk rate. His career walk rate of 12% is still concerning, particularly when coupled with the recent shoulder operation, but Feyereisen clearly has the makings of a solid late-game reliever if he can sustain his improved 2022 command.

The Rays, of course, could have opted to keep Feyereisen on the 40-man roster and place him on the 60-day injured list when Spring Training commences — there’s no injured list in the offseason — but they’re in somewhat of a bind, given that Feyereisen is just one of several players ticketed for the 60-day IL when camp begins. Both Shane Baz and Andrew Kittredge figure to require placement on the 60-day IL themselves, as each is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Waiting until Spring Training to make those moves would’ve effectively left the Rays working with a 37-man roster throughout the offseason.

Even with Feyereisen’s recent surgery, there’s a strong chance today’s DFA will spell the end of his time with the Rays. He has only two-plus years of MLB service time, meaning an acquiring team could control the 29-year-old righty for another four seasons. Even if he’ll miss a considerable portion of the 2023 season, there’s plenty of appeal in adding an arm of Feyereisen’s caliber, whether via a small trade or waiver claim, knowing he can be reasonably expected to be healthy for the 2024-26 seasons. The Rays clearly didn’t feel they had the luxury of rostering three immediate 60-day IL placements for the remainder of the offseason, but other clubs with greater flexibility won’t have such pressing concerns.

Rays To Sign Zach Eflin To Three-Year Deal

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The Rays are dipping into the free agent pitching market, agreeing to terms with right-hander Zach Eflin on a three-year deal. It’s reportedly a $40MM guarantee for the O’Connell Sports Management client. Eflin will make $11MM in each of the next two seasons, followed by an $18MM salary in 2025. The deal is pending a physical.

Eflin had spent his entire big league career with the Phillies. Originally drafted by the Padres, the Orlando native was dealt to the Dodgers and Phils during his time as a minor leaguer. He reached the majors by the middle of the 2016 campaign, bouncing on and off the MLB roster for the first couple seasons. Eflin struggled during his early big league looks, but he’d settled in as a capable mid-rotation arm by 2018.

That season, he made 24 starts and worked to a 4.36 ERA across 128 innings. That kicked off a remarkably consistent stretch of results. In each of the five seasons between 2018-22, Eflin posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36. Aside from a spike in strikeouts during the abbreviated 2020 season, he achieved those 3rd/4th starter results in a similar manner every year. He’s proven an excellent strike-thrower who misses bats at a slightly below-average level but keeps the ball on the ground at a solid clip.

Between 2019-21, Eflin worked to a 4.12 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.4% strikeout rate but a stellar 5.7% walk percentage. He’d been on a similar path to begin this season, posting a 4.37 ERA with a 19.6% strikeout percentage and a 5.3% walk rate through his first 13 starts. At the end of June, he landed on the injured list with a right knee contusion. That cost him over two months. By the time he was ready for reinstatement in early September, the Phils had limited time to build him back to a starter’s workload before year’s end. They expedited his return to the majors by plugging him in short relief. Eflin made seven appearances out of the bullpen during the regular season, then tossed 10 2/3 frames over 10 outings as a high-leverage arm during the Phils’ run to a National League pennant.

While Eflin doesn’t miss many bats, his blend of stellar control and a solid five-pitch mix allowed him to find a fair amount of success in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly home environment. Against right-handed hitters, he leans primarily on a sinker in the 92-93 MPH range, but he turned to a four-seam fastball more often against lefties. Eflin mixes in a cutter and curveball as his usual secondary offerings, occasionally deploying a slider against righties as well. He rarely turns to a changeup, however, and he’s had his share of issues with left-handed batters. Southpaws have hit Eflin at a .274/.335/.492 clip since the start of 2018, but he’s stifled same-handed hitters to a .255/.291/.398 mark.

Tampa Bay surely has designs on plugging him back into the rotation after a healthy offseason. He’ll step in behind Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow in the pecking order, joining Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in what looks to be the season-opening starting five. The Rays have one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Taj Bradley, waiting in the wings after a great season in the upper minors. Shane Baz was expected to seize a rotation job himself, but he’s likely to miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming are on hand as rotation or multi-inning relief options for what should again be a strong Tampa Bay pitching staff.

If healthy, Eflin fits nicely into the middle of that group. At the same time, the Rays are placing a bet on a pitcher with a concerning injury history. The knee contusion that cost Eflin a couple months this year was the latest in a line of joint issues that have plagued him since before he began his career. He underwent a pair of surgeries to repair the patellar tendons in both his knees in the summer of 2016. At the time, Eflin acknowledged he’d battled chronic knee pain dating back to adolescence (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). He avoided any worrisome injuries for the next few seasons, but he went back under the knife in September 2021 to again repair the patellar tendon in his right knee. That cut his year short, meaning he’s lost chunks of three of the past six seasons to knee issues. There’s real risk in investing in a pitcher who has only once topped 130 MLB innings in a season.

The Rays were willing to look past that to add a pitcher who’s typically effective when healthy. Eflin’s also one of the younger arms available in free agency. He won’t turn 29 until next April, and a pitcher with his age and statistical track record may well have found four years on the open market if not for injury concerns. Tampa Bay wasn’t the only team that valued Eflin in this range, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Red Sox had made him the same offer. Eflin elected to join the Rays instead, signing closer to home and avoiding state income tax.

With an $11MM salary for next season, Eflin becomes the highest-paid player on the Tampa Bay roster. He’ll lose that title in 2024, when Glasnow’s salary spikes to $25MM, but he’ll count for a significant portion of a Rays payroll that typically ranks among the league’s lowest. The Rays are now up to around $78MM in projected commitments for 2023, not far off their franchise-record $83MM mark from this past season. The overall $40MM guarantee represents the largest free agent investment in Rays history.

It also easily tops MLBTR’s pre-offseason projection of two years and $22MM for Eflin. The deal narrowly beats the three-year, $39MM guarantee Tyler Anderson received from the Angels last month. Anderson had rejected a qualifying offer and cost the Halos a draft choice. The Phils elected not to qualify Eflin. Philadelphia won’t receive any compensation for his departure, while the Rays won’t lose any picks to add him. To find Eflin’s replacement, Philadelphia can dip into a free agent rotation market that offers a number of options beyond the top trio of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Justin Verlander. Players like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea all remain on the market as strong candidates for multi-year deals.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rays and Eflin had agreed to a three-year deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the guarantee at $40MM. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura

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As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.

The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.

The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.

Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.

There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.

The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.

Zach Eflin Declines 2023 Mutual Option With Phillies

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Right-hander Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option for the 2023 season, as per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).  Eflin will receive a $150K buyout and become a free agent for the first time in his career.

Since mutual options are almost never exercised by both player and team, Eflin’s decision isn’t surprising, even if his 2022 numbers were underwhelming.  He tossed only 75 2/3 innings last season, as a right knee contusion led to a stint on the 60-day injured list, and Eflin’s move to the bullpen after his return in September.  Building up to a full starter’s workload would have delayed Eflin’s return even longer, and he was able to contribute down the stretch (1.17 ERA in 7 2/3 IP) during the Phillies’ successful chase of a wild card berth, and then in the postseason.  Eflin had a 3.38 ERA over 10 2/3 playoff innings, appearing in 10 games, and earning a save in the Phillies’ series-clinching win over the Cardinals in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.

While the bullpen stint was a nice silver lining to an injury-shortened year, Eflin and his reps at O’Connell Sports Management will certainly still market the right-hander as a solid starter.  Eflin doesn’t turn 29 until April, and he has a 4.16 ERA over 531 2/3 innings with Philadelphia since the start of the 2018 season.  While not a big strikeout pitcher, Eflin has posted consistently strong walk and hard-contact rates during his career, with particularly elite numbers in both categories in 2022.

Eflin’s age and track record line up well for a nice multi-year payday, though teams will also surely have some concerns about his injury history.  Eflin’s IL stint this season represented the latest in a series of knee-related issues, as he previously had surgery on his right knee in 2021, and on both knees in 2016.  It’s possible teams might look to include opt-out clauses, club options, or innings-based incentives clauses in any Eflin contract, but by that same token, an interested suitor might be able to full ahead by offering Eflin a more straight-forward deal with fewer conditional elements.

Depending on how the Phillies themselves feel about Eflin’s knee, a reunion could be possible.  Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez are slated as the top three in the Philadelphia rotation, with Bailey Falter penciled in for a larger role in 2023, and the likes of Hans Crouse and Michael Plassmeyer perhaps favored for innings until top prospects Andrew Painter and/or Mick Abel are ready for their MLB debuts.  A Phillies team that looks to contend for another pennant might prefer more veteran stability in the starting mix, which could lead to some talks with Eflin, fellow free agent Kyle Gibson, or perhaps some bigger-name free agents or trade targets.

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