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Zach Davies

Diamondbacks Place Zach Davies On 15-Day IL, Select Peter Solomon

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1:30PM: Jameson will move into Davies’ rotation spot, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Theo Mackie of the Arizona Republic).

12:45PM: The Diamondbacks announced that right-hander Zach Davies has been placed on the 15-day injured list, due to a strained left oblique suffered in last night’s game with the Dodgers.  Right-hander Peter Solomon’s contract was selected from Triple-A in order to fill Davies’ spot on the active roster.  Arizona moved both Mark Melancon and Cole Sulser to the 60-day IL to create 40-man roster space for Solomon and for the newly-acquired Jose Ruiz.

It was pretty clear that Davies was headed to the IL after yesterday’s early exit, as he struggled through 4 1/3 innings before departing.  We may learn about the severity of Davies’ strain in due time, though most oblique injuries of even a Grade 1 level usually require around a month of recovery time.

Since the D’Backs don’t play on Thursday, the team doesn’t strictly need a fifth starter until its April 18 game against the Cardinals.  That gives the Snakes some time to figure out Davies’ replacement in the rotation, with reliever Drey Jameson representing the most obvious in-house option already on the MLB roster.  Jameson didn’t win a rotation job in Spring Training but still made the roster as a relief pitcher, with the expectation that he could step into a starting role if and when an injury-related vacancy emerged.  At the Triple-A level, Tommy Henry and top prospect Brandon Pfaadt are also possibilities if the D’Backs prefer to keep Jameson in the bullpen.

Solomon’s promotion could be a hint to Arizona’s intentions, as while Solomon is a starter himself, his shaky results in the minors might suggest that he’s suited to a relief role at the MLB level.  The Diamondbacks might move Jameson to the rotation and then use Solomon in Jameson’s role as a multi-inning reliever (albeit in lower-leverage situations).

Solomon was a fourth-round pick for the Astros in the 2017 draft, and his only MLB experience came in the form of 14 innings with Houston in 2021.  Pittsburgh claimed Solomon off waivers from the Astros last September, and then Arizona selected Solomon away from the Pirates in December during the minor league version of the Rule 5 Draft.  While Solomon has a 5.25 ERA over 210 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, he misses a lot of bats, and might better fit the profile of a reliever even though he has a five-pitch arsenal.

It was only a matter of time before the D’Backs moved Melancon to the 60-day IL, since the veteran reliever is expected to miss several months recovering from a shoulder strain.  Sulser is also suffering from a shoulder strain and was just placed on the 15-day injured list on Friday, but he’ll now face at least a two-month absence before he returns to the big league roster.

The mounting list of injuries in Arizona’s bullpen might also be a factor in the team’s decision about whether or not to move Jameson out of a relief spot.  Corbin Martin might miss the entire 2023 season after undergoing lat tendon surgery last month, Melancon and Sulser are also long-term absences, and Joe Mantiply began the season on the 15-day IL due to shoulder fatigue.

Zach Davies Leaves Diamondbacks Game With Strained Left Oblique

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Zach Davies left the Diamondbacks game against the Dodgers with a strained left oblique, the team announced. Davies pitched 4 1/3 innings (86 pitches), giving up four earned runs on five hits and four walks. While it’s too early to know the severity of the strain, obliques are always reason for concern and often require multiple weeks, and even months, on the sideline.

This was Davies’ second start of the year after re-signing on a one-year, $5MM deal with the Diamondbacks. In his first, he threw five innings of one run ball, giving up four hits and recording four strikeouts. Last year, Davies tossed 134 1/3 innings of 4.09 ERA ball over 27 starts for the Snakes.

The former Brewer, Padres and Cub has had a solid career in the bigs, providing useful back-of-the-rotation innings. All told, he owns a 4.12 ERA over 183 big league starts. His best year came in the shortened 2020 season with San Diego, when Davies worked to a 2.73 ERA across 12 starts.

This could open the door for the Diamondbacks to hand top pitching prospect Brandon Pfaadt a big league debut. Pfaadt is off to a rough start at Triple-A, giving up five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his only start, but he worked to a 2.63 ERA in ten starts there last year. The 24-year-old ranked fourth on Keith Law’s prospect rankings in The Athletic (38th in all of baseball), with Law describing him as “at least a mid-rotation starter”.

Tommy Henry is also at Triple-A and made nine starts for the Diamondbacks last season, and despite those starts going for a 5.36 ERA he could be an option if the team thinks Pfaadt needs more time to develop. They could also turn to former first round picks Blake Walston and Slade Cecconi as options to get their first taste of the big leagues.

Diamondbacks Designate J.B. Bukauskas For Assignment

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The Diamdonbacks announced they’ve designated righty J.B. Bukauskas for assignment. The move creates a 40-man roster spot for Zach Davies, who has officially signed his one-year free agent guarantee to return to the desert. According to the team, Davies’ deal also contains a mutual option for the 2024 campaign.

Bukauskas was a first-round pick of the Astros in 2017 and appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 overall prospects the following spring. The University of North Carolina product was credited by scouts with a promising three-pitch mix that included a sinker, slider and high-quality changeup. Evaluators raised questions about how consistently he’d throw strikes thanks to a high-effort delivery, though, with many projecting a future move to the bullpen.

While Bukauskas worked as a starter up through Double-A, he’s indeed moved to relief in recent years. At the 2019 trade deadline, Houston sent him to Arizona alongside Josh Rojas, Seth Beer and Corbin Martin in the Zack Greinke blockbuster. Bukauskas made two Double-A starts the rest of the year and didn’t pitch in 2020 because of the cancelation of the minor league season.

After the 2020 campaign, Arizona added him to the 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He was called up for his major league debut that April and wound up pitching 21 times out of Torey Lovullo’s bullpen. He allowed 19 runs in his first 17 1/3 innings, thanks largely to the four longballs he served up. Bukauskas struck out 14, walked seven and missed bats on a slightly above-average 12.2% of his offerings.

Unfortunately, injuries have thrown off his attempts to carve out a permanent spot in the Arizona relief corps. Bukauskas missed roughly six weeks in 2021 thanks to a strain in his throwing elbow. More notably, he began last season on the 60-day injured list after suffering a Grade 2 strain in the teres major muscle in his shoulder. That kept him out of action until mid-July, when he was reinstated and optioned to Triple-A Reno. He pitched quite well in that hitter-friendly environment, working to a 2.66 ERA with a solid 23.8% strikeout rate and an excellent 5% walk percentage over 20 1/3 relief innings.

Despite that performance, Arizona never gave him a look in a floundering MLB bullpen in 2022. He’s now been squeezed off the 40-man entirely, with the Snakes having a week to trade him or try to run him through waivers. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bukauskas land elsewhere given his prospect pedigree and Triple-A performance last year. He still has a minor league option year remaining, so another team could keep him in Triple-A for a season if they’re willing to devote him a 40-man roster spot.

Looking At The Diamondbacks’ Rotation Options

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It’s been a rough few years for the Diamondbacks. After making the playoffs in 2017 and then posting respectable records above .500 in the two following seasons, the last three campaigns have seen their fortunes sink. They finished last in the National League West in 2020 and 2021, then surpassed the Rockies last year for a fourth place finish. During that time, the Dodgers, Giants and Padres have all had strong seasons, making the efforts of the D-Backs feel particularly hopeless. In 2021, they finished 52-110 and 55 games out in the division.

2022 was a step in the right direction, though, and there are some exciting ingredients in place. The position player mix seems to have a lot of good momentum behind it. Even after dealing Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays, the outfield should feature a crop of exciting youngsters, headlined by Corbin Carroll but with Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy also in the mix. On the infield, Ketel Marte is capable of MVP-level production when healthy and at his best. Christian Walker is underrated at first base while shortstop Jordan Lawlar and catcher Gabriel Moreno are considered some of the best prospects in the league.

However, the pitching staff is a bit more precarious at the moment. In 2022, the position players posted a cumulative tally of 19.8 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs, good enough for 15th place in the majors. But the pitchers posted a total of 7.7 fWAR, ranking them 27th. If the team is to re-emerge and start contending again, they will need to get better results from the mound. There were some potentially encouraging developments in their rotation in 2022, but still some uncertainty going forward into 2023.

It’s possible that the club will make further additions via free agency but it’s also possible that they’re done. The club’s payroll is now at $113MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. They’ve been as high as $132MM in the past, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they were at just $91MM last year. That means they’ve already boosted the budget by more than $20MM. For now, let’s take a look at the in-house options, starting with the four veterans.

Zac Gallen

Gallen, 27, seemed to emerge as an ace in 2019 and 2020, making 27 starts with a 2.78 ERA. He had a swoon in 2021, dealing with various injuries and his ERA jumped to 4.30, but he was back in form last year. In 2022, he made 31 starts and logged 184 innings with a 2.54 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. He finished fifth in the voting for the National League Cy Young award and can be controlled via arbitration for three more seasons.

Merrill Kelly

Kelly, 34, parlayed a strong run in the KBO into a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season. That deal also came with a pair of club options. Kelly pitched well enough that they triggered both options and then gave him an extension that runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025. Through four seasons with Arizona so far, he has a 3.96 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He’s certainly a notch below Gallen, but he’s a solid mid-rotation option for the club.

Madison Bumgarner

After spending over a decade with the Giants, Bumgarner came to the D-Backs prior to the 2020 season on a five-year, $85MM deal. Unfortunately, his results immediately took a nosedive after the uniform switch. He had a 3.13 career ERA in his time with the Giants but has posted a 4.98 mark in his three seasons as a Snake. His walk rate is still better than average but his strikeouts have vanished. He punched out 23.9% of opponents on his previous team but it’s been just a 17.7% rate for Arizona. Now 33 years old, it’s hard to expect a sudden bounceback, though the Diamondbacks might give him a chance to try since he still has two years and $37MM left on his deal. That gives him negative trade value at this point and it would be a lot of cash to eat for a Diamondbacks team that’s never been a top spender. However, his salary goes from $23MM this year to $14MM in 2024, which could make some kind of transaction more plausible if he can find better results in 2023.

Zach Davies

Davies, 30 in February, pitched for the D-Backs in 2022. He didn’t blow anyone away but he was passable enough. He made 27 starts with a 4.09 ERA. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a few ticks below average but his 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate were both right around league average. He used his five-pitch mix to keep hitters from doing damage, as his hard hit rate was in the 76th percentile among qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity was in the 75th. The club agreed to a new one-year deal with him yesterday, bringing him back to hopefully provide some steady production while they evaluate their younger pitchers.

Ryne Nelson

If those four pitchers are healthy and throwing well, there will be one spot remaining for a younger pitcher. Nelson will certainly be in that mix to secure the final job. He was selected by Arizona in the second round of the 2019 draft and has been considered one of the club’s better prospects since then. He even cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list of all prospects in the league going into 2022. Last year saw him spend most of his time with the Triple-A Reno Aces, who play in the Pacific Coast League. He made 26 starts for that club with a 5.43 ERA in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. His 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate were solid enough for him to get a major league debut in September. He made three starts in the big leagues with a 1.47 ERA, striking out 23.2% of batters faced while walking 8.7% of them. That’s a very small sample size but an encouraging one nonetheless. He’ll turn 25 in February and still has a full slate of options. He could certainly be sent back to Triple-A but an extended audition at the big leagues could be warranted as well.

Drey Jameson

Jameson and Nelson have a very similar trajectory to this point. Jameson was also selected in the 2019 draft, just ahead of Nelson by being selected between the first and second rounds, with the pick the club received for AJ Pollock signing with the Dodgers. Jameson began 2022 in Double-A but posted a 2.41 ERA in four starts and got quickly moved up to Triple-A. With the Aces, he posted a 6.95 ERA in 114 innings in that pitcher-hostile environment. However, his rate stats were decent, striking out 21.2% of hitters, walking 8.2% of them and getting grounders on 48.6% of balls in play. He also got called up to the big leagues in September, just like Nelson, making four starts with a 1.48 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 56.1% ground ball rate. Just like Nelson, he’ll be 25 years old this season and has a full slate of options. The two seem likely to be battling each other for the final rotation spot with one likely to be optioned, but they could also both be in the mix as soon as an injury pops up.

Tommy Henry

Just like Nelson and Jameson, Henry was also nabbed in the 2019 draft. He was selected in competitive balance round B, between the second and third rounds. He posted stronger Triple-A results than the other two last year, with a 3.74 ERA over 21 starts. However, his first taste of the big leagues didn’t go as smooth as he made nine starts with a 5.36 ERA, striking out just 17.6% of hitters while walking 10.2% of them. He’s also 25 and provides a third competitor in the battle for the last rotation job, but it’s possible he’s a bit behind Nelson and Jameson based on his weaker debut. He still has a full slate of options and could be in line for more work in the minors, ready to make the jump again when needed and ready.

Brandon Pfaadt

Pfaadt, 24, began 2022 in Double-A, making 19 starts and logging 105 1/3 innings there. His 4.53 ERA might not look special, but he posted that number despite striking out 32.2% of batters faced and walking just 4.3% of them. A .370 batting average on balls in play surely inflated that ERA to a level higher than he deserved, though 17.9% of his fly balls turning into home runs may have contributed as well. The D-Backs seemed to be willing to look past that ERA, bumping him to Triple-A in August. Pfaadt took very well to the move, despite the strong offensive environment. He tossed 61 2/3 innings over 10 starts for the Aces with a 2.63 ERA, 30.6% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Based on that strong finish, he has surged up prospect rankings. He currently has the #83 slot at Baseball America, is #90 at MLB Pipeline, but FanGraphs is especially bullish and considers him the 25th best prospect in the league. He’s not yet on the club’s 40-man roster since he was only drafted in 2020 and isn’t Rule 5 eligible until this coming December, but he seems destined to make a big league debut well before then.

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When combined, there are some strong elements here for the D-Backs. Gallen gives them an ace and Kelly a solid piece for the middle of the rotation. Davies isn’t terribly exciting but is fine as a backend piece. Bumgarner’s contract is underwater at this point, but he could also be a solid backend guy if he puts the past three years behind him. Those four combined don’t give the club an especially strong rotation, but the four guys behind them give the overall group plenty of upside. If one or two of the young guys have a breakout in 2023, then the rotation picture starts to look much better.

The position player core in Arizona is heavily future-focused, with Carroll, Thomas, Marte, Moreno, Lawlar and others starting to develop into a strong core that could allow the club to continually improve over the coming seasons. With the rotation, the path forward could be very similar. Prospects aren’t sure things, especially when it comes to pitchers, but the Diamondbacks need to hit on young players if they’re not going to spend like the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. For now, there are signs of hope in the desert and the upcoming season will be a fascinating one to watch.

Diamondbacks Re-Sign Zach Davies

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The Diamondbacks are in agreement to bring Zach Davies back to the club on a one-year guarantee with a mutual option for the 2024 season, the team announced. Davies will reportedly be guaranteed $5MM with another $3MM in incentives available. The right-hander is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Davies, 30, has pitched in each of the past eight MLB seasons. Though he’s never been able to perform at the dominant level of an ace, he has been able to provide solid work over that stretch. In 182 career starts, he’s thrown 966 innings with a 4.14 ERA. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, he’s never been able to post a strikeout rate above 20% and has a 17.4% rate for his career overall. That’s a few ticks shy of typical league averages, with MLB starters striking out 21.6% of batters faced in 2022.

What Davies has been able to do, however, is limit hard contact in order to keep runs off the board. 45% of balls in play he’s allowed in his career have been on the ground. In 2022, Statcast put his average exit velocity allowed in the 75th percentile of qualified pitchers, along with a hard hit rate that’s in the 76th percentile.

The Diamondbacks signed Davies for the 2022 season on a one-year deal. He made 27 starts for the Snakes, logging 134 1/3 innings with a 4.09 ERA. Similar to his career overall, he paired a modest 17.9% strikeout rate with a solid 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate but kept runs off the board with the aforementioned weak contact. His fastball only averaged 89.6 mph but he also mixed in a changeup, cutter, curveball and slider in order to keep hitters off balance.

It may not be an exceptionally exciting move for fans of the Diamondbacks, but it’s one that has some sense to it. Zac Gallen figures to be the club’s ace with Merrill Kelly a pretty reliable bet for a mid-rotation role. Madison Bumgarner has struggled in recent year but will likely be serving as an innings-eating veteran at the back end.

Outside of those three, there’s a group of youngsters who showed promise in 2022 but haven’t cemented themselves at the big league level. Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson both showed encouraging signs late last year, but Nelson only has three big league starts and Jameson just four. They will both be 25 in the upcoming season and still have options. Tommy Henry is also going into his age-25 season, though his nine-start debut was less impressive and he’s probably ticketed for more minor league development. The Diamondbacks also have a highly-touted pitching prospect in Brandon Pfaadt, who has yet to crack the 40-man roster. However, he did reach Triple-A last year and is generally considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league.

The Diamondbacks started to integrate that young talent into their rotation in 2022 and will surely be looking to continue down that path in 2023. However, prospect development rarely occurs in a strict linear fashion, especially when it comes to pitchers. As they try to figure out what they have in their young arms, Davies gives them a reliable veteran presence who can likely be counted on to provide some steady work when they need it.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the agreement and contract terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Which Free Agents Remain For Teams Seeking Rotation Help?

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With the holiday slowing down what had become a very rapid offseason, it works as a natural point to take stock of what players clubs could target in the coming weeks. On Monday, MLBTR looked through the remaining free agent relievers coming off the best 2022 campaigns (one of whom has since signed a major league deal). Now we’ll take stock of the rotation options who are still out on the open market.

There aren’t as many starting pitchers for clubs to sort through as there were bullpen targets, with 19 remaining hurlers who tallied at least 20 rotation innings this past season. We’ll look at the top half of that group by various metrics to determine who teams figure to prioritize as they seek starting pitching depth.

Note: all figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters.

ERA (league average — 4.05)

  1. Johnny Cueto (RHP), 3.29
  2. Michael Wacha (RHP), 3.32
  3. Wade Miley (LHP), 3.34
  4. Bryan Garcia (RHP), 3.54
  5. Zack Greinke (RHP), 3.68
  6. Devin Smeltzer (LHP), 4.02
  7. Zach Davies (RHP), 4.06
  8. Aníbal Sánchez (RHP), 4.28
  9. Drew Hutchison (RHP), 4.52

Strikeout rate (league average — 21.6%)

  1. Chase Anderson (RHP), 24.6%
  2. Matt Swarmer (RHP), 22.4%
  3. Bryan Garcia, 20.2%
  4. Michael Wacha, 20.2%
  5. Chris Archer (RHP), 19.2%
  6. Wade Miley, 18.4%
  7. Zach Davies, 17.9%
  8. Chad Kuhl (RHP), 17.8%
  9. Mike Minor (LHP), 16.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.1 percentage points)

  1. Michael Wacha, 14.2 points
  2. Matt Swarmer, 13.1 points
  3. Dylan Bundy (RHP), 11.1 points
  4. Chase Anderson, 10.6 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 10.5 points
  6. Wade Miley, 9.2 points
  7. Michael Pineda (RHP), 9 points
  8. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), 9 points
  9. Zach Davies, 8.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 42.5%)

  1. Wade Miley, 54.2%
  2. Aaron Sanchez, 51.3%
  3. Chase Anderson, 50.9%
  4. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), 50.2%
  5. Jared Koenig (LHP), 47.2%
  6. Chris Archer, 43.7%
  7. Zach Davies, 42.9%
  8. Johnny Cueto, 42.5%
  9. Zack Greinke, 41.3%

FIP (league average — 4.04)

  1. Johnny Cueto, 3.76
  2. Wade Miley, 4.00
  3. Zack Greinke, 4.03
  4. Michael Wacha, 4.14
  5. Chase Anderson, 4.37
  6. Chris Archer, 4.49
  7. Aaron Sanchez, 4.61
  8. Dylan Bundy, 4.66
  9. Zach Davies, 4.83

Innings pitched

  1. Johnny Cueto, 153 1/3
  2. Dylan Bundy, 140
  3. Zack Greinke, 137
  4. Chad Kuhl, 137
  5. Zach Davies, 134 1/3
  6. Michael Wacha, 127 1/3
  7. Chris Archer, 102 2/3
  8. Mike Minor, 98
  9. Drew Hutchison, 89 2/3

Zach Davies Declines Mutual Option With Diamondbacks

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Diamondbacks right-hander Zach Davies declined his end of a mutual option for the 2023 season, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The right-hander receives a $250K buyout, and (as per the MLB Players Association) has officially become a free agent.

Davies inked a one-year guarantee with the D’Backs in March, and posted a 4.09 ERA over 134 1/3 frames in 2022.  It ended up being quite a solid return for Arizona on its $1.75MM investment ($1.5MM salary, plus the buyout) on the 29-year-old, and since Davies had some extra bonus money tied to his number of starts, his 27 trips to the mound likely earned him some additional dollars.

The value of the mutual option wasn’t known, though mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties.  Davies had strikeout (17.9%) and walk (9.1%) rates that were well below the league average, as well as his typically low fastball velocity and chase rates, though he did do a good job of avoiding hard contact.  A .257 BABIP undoubtedly helped Davies, as his 4.71 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of his 2022 performance.

It’s possible the Diamondbacks might pursue a reunion with Davies, but with these stats in mind, the D’Backs might choose to pursue another fairly inexpensive veteran arm rather than look to re-sign Davies himself.  Arizona has Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Madison Bumgarner atop their projected rotation, with such younger hurlers as Drey Jameson, Tommy Henry, and Ryne Nelson set to compete for the final two spots in the starting five.  The D’Backs could prefer to let those youngsters compete for just a lone rotation job, and acquire a veteran to fill the fourth starter’s role.  Theoretically, that fourth starter could perhaps be flipped at the deadline, thus opening up more time for another prospect to get more innings.

Davies might well have been traded himself last summer, had it not been for a shoulder injury that sidelined him for all of July.  The right-hander will now hit the market once again, and could be joining his fifth different team in as many seasons.  Davies was a part of prominent trades in both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons, moving from the Brewers to the Padres and then to the Cubs before signing with the D’Backs last winter.

Note: The original version of this post indicated the Diamondbacks had declined their end of the mutual option. It was subsequently reported that Davies declined his end of the option. MLBTR regrets the error.

Diamondbacks Select Kevin Ginkel

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The D-Backs announced they’ve selected reliever Kevin Ginkel onto the major league roster before this evening’s game against the Guardians. They’ve also reinstated starter Zach Davies from the injured list and recalled designated hitter Seth Beer from Triple-A Reno. In a trio of active roster moves, they’ve placed left-hander Caleb Smith on the 15-day IL due to a hand fracture and optioned infielder Yonny Hernández and righty Corbin Martin.

Ginkel is joining the major league club for the first time this season. The righty was outrighted off the 40-man roster last November but stuck in the organization and has spent the season with Triple-A Reno. He’s excelled there, working to a sparkling 1.17 ERA across 30 2/3 innings. He’s punched out an excellent 36.6% of opposing hitters against a manageable 9.8% walk rate, numbers that eventually earned another deserved look in the big leagues.

The 28-year-old hasn’t had a ton of success at the MLB level to this point. He posted a 1.48 ERA through 25 appearances as a rookie in 2019, but he’d struggled over the past couple seasons. Ginkel owns just a 6.50 ERA in 51 outings since that point, with an elevated 13% walk percentage among the culprits for that lack of success. He’ll try to carry over his excellent upper minors showing against higher-level hitters and earn a long-term spot in the Arizona bullpen.

Davies returns after a bit more than a month on the IL due to shoulder soreness. The righty looked like a viable trade candidate after pitching to a 3.84 ERA through his first 15 starts on an affordable $1.75MM contract. Now that he’s back on the active roster, there’s at least some chance he attracts attention from contenders seeking rotation depth within the next 24 hours.

Diamondbacks Place Zach Davies On 15-Day Injured List

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The Diamondbacks have placed starting pitcher Zach Davies on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 26, due to right shoulder inflammation. Reliever Sean Poppen was recalled from Triple-A Reno to take his place on the active roster.

A timetable for Davies’ return isn’t clear, although the injury could have an impact on the summer trade market. The right-hander is one of the game’s more straightforward trade candidates if healthy. He’s an inexpensive veteran role player, and Arizona’s recent slump has dropped them to 33-41 and almost assuredly out of contention. Davies’ contract contains a mutual option for the 2023 season, but those are rarely trigged by both player and team. He’s an impending free agent in all likelihood, and the D-Backs figure to move some players on short-term deals for future value.

The Cubs acquired Davies from the Padres as part of the Yu Darvish trade over the 2020-21 offseason. He made 32 starts for the North Siders last year but struggled to a 5.78 ERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts over 148 innings. It was arguably the worst season of his career and diminished his value before his first trip to the open market. Davies lingered in free agency until late March before landing with the Snakes on a modest $1.75MM guarantee.

He’s quietly had a nice bounceback season in the desert, posting a 3.94 ERA over 15 turns through the rotation. He’s still not missing many bats, but the 29-year-old has righted the uncharacteristic control woes that cropped up last year. After walking over 11% of opponents in 2021, he’s cut the rate of free passes below 8% this season. Paired with an average 43.2% ground-ball rate and his durability prior to this shoulder issue, Davies again looks like a stable source of back-of-the-rotation innings.

There are exactly five weeks until the August 2 trade deadline. If Davies can return from the IL in relatively short order and demonstrate his health, he figures to be among a host of back-end arms who could change hands this summer. A lengthier stint may jeopardize the D-Backs chances of moving him. Players on the injured list are eligible to be traded, but it’s likely contending clubs in search of innings would look elsewhere if Davies were still on the shelf at the end of July. The team will presumably provide more details on his recovery outlook over the coming days.

Diamondbacks Sign Zach Davies

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March 24: The D-backs have announced the signing. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Arizona placed right-hander J.B. Bukauskas on the 60-day injured list. Bukauskas suffered a Grade 2 teres major strain earlier this week and is expected to be sidelined for “months” with the injury.

March 22, 10:54am: Davies is guaranteed $1.75MM on the deal, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. He’ll earn a $1.5MM base salary and is also guaranteed at least a $250K buyout on next year’s option. The contract allows him to earn an additional $2.5MM based on his number of games started. The 2023 option is a mutual option, Heyman reports.

8:58am: The D-backs have reached a one-year agreement with free-agent righty Zach Davies, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). There’s also a 2023 option on the contract. Davies, a client of the Boras Corporation, can earn up to $4.5MM this year, per Heyman. Robert Murray of FanSided first tweeted that the two sides were close to a deal.

Zach Davies | Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Davies, who turned 29 last month, was one of the younger free-agent starters on the market but also hit free agency in need of a rebound campaign after a lackluster 2021 showing with the Cubs. Acquired from San Diego in Chicago’s salary dump of Yu Darvish, Davies made 32 starts and covered 148 innings but did so while limping to a career-worst 5.78 ERA. Among the 129 pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, Davies’ 17.1% strikeout rate ranked 116th, while his 11.2% walk rate was the sixth-highest mark in that same set.

Just a year prior, during the shortened 2020 campaign, Davies had the finest season of his career. Obviously it wasn’t a full slate of 30-plus starts, but Davies nevertheless pitched 69 1/3 innings over a dozen appearances and turned in an outstanding 2.73 ERA with vastly superior strikeout (22.8%) and walk (6.9%) rates to those that he displayed in his lone year with the Cubs.

Davies has never missed bats at that 2020 level in any other season, which perhaps makes it something of a small-sample anomaly, but it should also be noted that he’s never struggled with his command like he did in 2021. To the contrary, prior to this past season’s surprising uptick in free passes, Davies offset his pedestrian strikeout rates and lack of velocity with strong command of the zone. From 2016-20, he walked just 6.7% of his opponents — a mark that tied him for 48th among 181 qualified pitchers.

In all likelihood, Davies’ true performance level lies somewhere between the extremes he posted in 2020 and 2021. He’s worked to a career 4.14 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate, a 7.8% walk rate and a 45.3% grounder rate in 831 2/3 innings between Milwaukee, San Diego and Chicago. Davies doesn’t miss many bats, given that his arsenal is headlined by a sinker that averages 88.2 mph, but he’s better than average when it comes to inducing weak contact. Outside of 2021, he hasn’t been particularly homer-prone in his career, either.

Arizona’s rotation is currently projected to include Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Merrill Kelly and perhaps non-roster invitee Dan Straily, who signed a minor league deal during the lockout after a solid two-year run in the Korea Baseball Organization. Gallen, however, is nursing some shoulder troubles at the moment, and Weaver has battled his own share of injury problems in recent years. Both Weaver and Kelly have also garnered trade interest at various points, though there’s no current indication the Snakes are weighing a move involving any member of their staff.

The signing of Davies could push Straily to a long-relief role or perhaps even to Triple-A Reno to begin the season, but teams are going to be cautious with their starters early in the season following a truncated Spring Training that did not give pitchers a full ramp-up period. It’s likely that there will be innings to go around for all six of those rotation candidates — to say nothing of upper-minors options like Tyler Gilbert, Corbin Martin, Humberto Mejia and Humberto Castellanos.

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