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Diamondbacks’ Starters Drawing Trade Interest

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As free agent starters begin to find new homes — Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Kyle Hendricks have all signed in the past two weeks — interest in the Diamondbacks’ collection of rotation arms has “started to pick up,” general manager Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D-backs have at least six starters on the roster at present: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Jordan Montgomery.

Of the six, Montgomery is the most obvious trade candidate, following a rough 2024 showing and owner Ken Kendrick’s public, verbal thrashing of the player. In October, Kendrick openly lamented ever pushing his front office to sign Montgomery late in the 2023-24 offseason, calling it a “horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did” and “our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint.” Montgomery unsurprisingly exercised a $22.5MM player option even after being called out by Kendrick — a straightforward decision for a pitcher coming off an injury-shortened year with career-worst marks in ERA (6.23), strikeout rate (15.6%) and walk rate (8.3%).

For all the focus placed on Montgomery’s struggles last year, the other veteran lefty signed by Arizona last offseason also fell well short of expectations. Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80MM pact with the Snakes but was limited to just 10 starts after opening the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain. He pitched 50 innings of 5.04 ERA ball while showing diminished life on his four-seamer and sinker. Rodriguez is owed $20MM for the coming season, $21MM in 2026 and $19MM in 2027. He’s also guaranteed a $6MM buyout on a $17MM mutual option for the 2028 season — an option that could automatically vest based on his innings tallies in 2026-27. While Montgomery’s contract is underwater, the three years and $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s pact very likely make him even harder to unload.

Any of  the other four arms in Arizona’s rotation would be hard to pry loose. Ace Zac Gallen is a Cy Young contender when healthy, evidenced by fifth- and third-place finishes in 2022 and 2023 balloting. He missed about a month of action with a hamstring strain in 2024 and flashed worse command than usual (relative to his excellent standards, anyhow), but any team would love to have the right-hander. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $14.1MM in his final season of club control before becoming a free agent next winter. Gallen is not being shopped, to be clear. Hazen even chuckled at the mere notion of Gallen being a prominent trade candidate in a mid-November appearance on Arizona Sports 98.7’s Wolf & Luke Show (2:35 mark). That’s unlikely to stop other teams from trying.

Kelly, like Gallen, is a free agent next offseason. He missed more than three months in 2024 with a shoulder strain but was generally effective when healthy, logging a 4.03 ERA with a slightly below-average 21% strikeout rate and a strong 6.3% walk rate. Arizona made an easy call to exercise a $7MM club option on Kelly for the upcoming season.

Nelson and Pfaadt are both controllable and thus quite valuable to the Snakes. The 26-year-old Nelson is under club control for four more seasons and just tossed 150 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.4% walk rate in 2024. Those numbers are skewed by a slow start, but from July onward, Nelson posted a 3.05 ERA, 24.8 K% and 5.0 BB% in 82 2/3 frames. He’s not yet eligible for arbitration.

Pfaadt, also 26, paced the D-backs with 181 2/3 innings and 32 starts. His 4.71 ERA doesn’t stand out, but his 24.3% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, 3.61 FIP and 3.65 SIERA are all far more encouraging. He might’ve worn down a bit late in the season as he pushed through that new career-high workload, as his worst months were August and September. A disproportionate amount of the damage against Pfaadt this season came in one nightmare September outing, wherein the Brewers tagged him for eight runs in just 1 2/3 innings. Lopping off even that one start would cause his season-long ERA to drop by nearly 40 points. Regardless, the former top prospect is a 2025 breakout candidate when considering his pedigree and rate stats that far outpace his pedestrian earned run average. Of the arms on the big league staff, he’s probably the most difficult for another team to acquire.

There’s depth even beyond that sextet. Right-hander Drey Jameson will be back from 2023 Tommy John surgery next year. He’s already had some big league success. There are another five starters on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A, all of whom have minor league options remaining and at least a bit of MLB experience: Yilber Diaz, Slade Cecconi, Blake Walston, Cristian Mena and Tommy Henry. Few organizations boast a stockpile of arms so deep.

All of that is to say — it’s hardly a surprise that clubs are calling the D-backs about their starters. The same is true of their outfielders, as Hazen already acknowledged a couple weeks back. Piecoro writes that (naturally) Montgomery is both the likeliest to move and the pitcher whom the team would most strongly prefer to deal. Hazen stated that Kendrick’s comments regarding the left-hander have “zero” impact on the urgency to trade him, though there’s likely some public-facing lip service at play there.

Piecoro adds that the D-backs would be willing to take on another contract of some note in return for Montgomery (if said player filled a roster need) or perhaps pursue more of a traditional salary dump, where they shed as much of the contract as possible for little to no return. Of note, Hazen suggested that if he’s to ultimately move Montgomery in deal that is primarily rooted in salary relief, the trade would need to come together before the bulk of quality free agents come off the board: “At some point, it doesn’t make sense because your pivot moves are picking at the edges rather than getting somebody (who is more of a target).”

Diamondbacks Reinstate Zac Gallen From 15-Day Injured List

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As expected, the Diamondbacks reinstated Zac Gallen from the 15-day injured list today, as Gallen prepares to start Arizona’s game against the Athletics.  Left-hander Brandon Hughes was optioned to Triple-A yesterday to open up a roster spot for Gallen’s return.

Gallen suffered a right hamstring strain just six pitches into a start on May 30, so he’ll now return to action after almost exactly a month off.  The rehab process went pretty smoothly for the ace right-hander, as he didn’t even make any minor league rehab starts during his recovery.  Gallen instead tossed live batting practice sessions, simulated games, and bullpens to ramp up and get ready, and a 67-pitch sim game last Monday was essentially the final step of the process.  Once Gallen came out of a Thursday bullpen session feeling good, the D’Backs finalized their plans to start Gallen today against Oakland.

Needless to say, getting Gallen back after just a month is a sigh of relief for the Diamondbacks, considering how injuries have plagued Arizona’s rotation.  Eduardo Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80MM free agent deal over the offseason but has yet to pitch after suffering a lat strain during Spring Training, and Merrill Kelly will be out until at least mid-August due to a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder.  Jordan Montgomery’s late signing and subsequent late start to the season has also led to some inconsistent results for the left-hander, and between some other struggles for the younger starters, Arizona ranks only 27th of 30 teams in rotation ERA this season.

Gallen was again a bright light for the rotation, with a 3.12 ERA in his first 11 starts and 57 2/3 innings before his hamstring strain.  Missing a month could hurt Gallen’s chances of his third straight top-five finish in NL Cy Young Award voting, yet helping get the Diamondbacks into contention again is surely the chief priority in Gallen’s mind.  Despite the starting pitching concerns and a 39-43 record, the D’Backs are 3.5 games back of the last NL wild card spot, so getting even average results from the rotation could put Arizona more firmly in position for a second-half surge.

In other news about Rodriguez, manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com and other media that the left-hander will undergo an MRI in a week to ensure that everything is progressing as expected with his lat muscle.  Rodriguez has been throwing at distances of 105 feet, but if the MRI is clean, he’ll start a more intensive throwing program.

Diamondbacks Place Zac Gallen On Injured List

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The Diamondbacks announced that right-hander Zac Gallen has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain. Fellow righty Slade Cecconi has been recalled in a corresponding move.

Gallen, 28, took the ball in last night’s game against the Mets but departed after just six pitches, with the club later announcing the hamstring strain. There were some signs pointing to a mild injury, as manager Torey Lovullo told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo show earlier today that he expected Gallen to miss one start without going on the IL, as relayed by Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports. Though it seems the club decided to put him on the IL after all, putting him out of action for the next two weeks at least.

Even if it does prove to be a short absence, it’s not good news for the Snakes, as Gallen has emerged as one of the better pitchers in baseball in recent years. In 725 career innings, he has allowed 3.20 earned run per nine frames. Since the start of 2022, he has a 3.05 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 43.3% ground ball rate.

Subtracting that kind of performance would hurt any rotation but it’s especially concerning for the Diamondbacks, as Gallen now joins Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez on the injured list. The defending National League champions have gotten out to a slow start so far this year and are currently 25-31. Climbing back into a playoff position will be tough without those three pitchers and neither Kelly nor Rodríguez have started a rehab assignment yet, so the club will definitely be hoping that Gallen just needs a quick breather before returning.

For now, the club’s rotation consists of Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Blake Walston and Cecconi. Both Nelson and Cecconi have an ERA over 6.00. Montgomery is at 4.69 and Pfaadt at 4.16. Walston’s ERA is just 2.16 but in a tiny sample of 8 1/3 innings. Tommy Henry is on optional assignment, though he has a 5.40 ERA in the majors so far this year. Cristian Mena is also on the 40-man roster but has yet to make his major league debut.

Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen Avoid Arbitration

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The Diamondbacks and right-hander Zac Gallen have avoided arbitration, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The Boras Corporation client will make a salary of $10.011MM this year.

Gallen, 28, has established himself as an ace-level pitcher and is coming off a second consecutive excellent season. In 2023, he made 34 starts and tallied 210 innings with a 3.47 earned run average. He struck out 26% of batters that came to the plate against him, walked just 5.6% of them and kept 41.8% of balls in play on the ground.

The righty was then a key part of the Diamondbacks making a surprise charge to the World Series. Though his ERA ticked up to 4.54 in the postseason, he logged 33 2/3 innings over six starts, a notable workload for a club without much pitching depth.

He was a third-round pick of the Cardinals but he was twice traded to end up in the desert. He was one of four players that went to the Marlins in the Marcell Ozuna trade and later was flipped to the Snakes for Jazz Chisholm Jr. He first qualified for arbitration going into 2023 and played last year on a $5.6MM salary, now getting into eight-figure territory. He will be due one more raise in 2025 before he’s slated for free agency.

Blake Snell Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Free agent left-hander Blake Snell has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Logan Webb of the Giants finished second in the voting while Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks finished third.

Snell, 31 next month, has now earned a Cy Young award for the second time in his career. The first trophy was in the American League, with Snell winning as a member of the Rays in 2018. He is just the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay.

The left-handed Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career, with both his health and performance wobbling over the years, but his two award-winning campaigns have been excellent. His first trophy came after posting an earned run average of 1.89 with the Rays and this second piece of hardware was earned by posting a 2.25 for the Padres this year. His most recent campaign saw him walk 13.3% of batters faced but he danced around those by striking out 31.5% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.4% clip. He probably had some help from the baseball gods as his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, but his punchouts and grounders surely helped him somewhat as well.

Outside of those two campaigns, the results have been far more mixed. He got to 180 innings pitched in his award-winning campaigns but hasn’t reached 130 in any other season. He also hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.24 in any of them.

Of course, that doesn’t matter for the Cy Young voting. It’s a single-season award and his year-to-year consistency is not something for the voters to consider. Snell’s voting wasn’t quite unanimous but he got 28 of the 30 first-place votes. But his overall track record will be of concern to the clubs considering signing him as a free agent. Pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs don’t hit free agency every day but it’s also incredibly rare for a pitcher to put so many runners on base without allowing them to score. Regardless of those concerns, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a contract of $200MM over seven years and he’s already garnering plenty of interest.

Webb had a 3.25 ERA in 216 innings for the Giants this year, which got him one of the first-place votes and 17 for second. Gallen had a 3.47 ERA in his 210 innings, which led to one first-place vote and three for second. In the full voting, which can be seen here, votes also went to Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes.

The Trade That Landed NL’s All-Star Starter In Arizona

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The All-Star Game is soon to get underway. Kicking off the festivities on the mound: Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen and Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

The two pitchers were acquired by their respective clubs at very different stages of their careers. Cole had established himself as arguably the sport’s best pitcher by the 2019-20 offseason. He’d join the Yankees on a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract that shattered the record for the largest pitching deal in MLB history. 519 innings of 3.19 ERA ball later, the Yankees are surely happy with that investment.

Gallen landed in Arizona well before he was established as an MLB starter. Originally drafted by the Cardinals, he was dealt to the Marlins as a prospect alongside Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra and Daniel Castano in the lopsided Marcell Ozuna trade over the 2017-18 offseason. Gallen spent a year and a half in the Miami system, reaching the big leagues in June ’19.

A rookie starter on a then-noncompetitive Miami club, Gallen wasn’t on many people’s radar as a viable trade candidate going into the 2019 deadline. The Fish and Diamondbacks ignored traditional competitive windows and lined up on the extremely rare swap of top young talents: a one-for-one deal that sent Gallen to Phoenix for Double-A middle infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Swapping highly-regarded prospects at positions of need is far more common in fan speculation than it is in practice. Organizations are typically reluctant to surrender quality controllable talent. Clubs liked those players enough to acquire and develop them in the first place; it’s only natural if teams tend to value their in-house talent more than other organizations might.

Going into the 2019 season, Chisholm was generally regarded as the superior prospect. The Bahamian infielder ranked 59th on Baseball America’s top 100 list and 32nd on Keith Law’s list (then at ESPN). His athleticism, switch-hitting ability and huge raw power made him a potential franchise middle infielder. Gallen was more generally perceived as a future strike-throwing #4 starter than a burgeoning ace.

Gallen flipped that script with a breakout 2019 campaign. He posted a 1.77 ERA over 14 Triple-A starts before his first call-up. He made seven starts with Miami, working to a 2.72 ERA with a strong 28.5% strikeout percentage in his first 36 2/3 frames. Arizona had to view Gallen as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter to make parting with Chisholm worthwhile.

They’ve been proven right in that evaluation. In parts of five seasons as a Diamondback, Gallen has worked to a 3.10 ERA through 539 1/3 innings. He’s striking out just over 27% of batters faced. The North Carolina product was a little walk-prone early in his career, but he has consistently cut into the free passes as he’s gotten more experience.

Only once has Gallen posted an ERA higher than this year’s 3.04 clip. His 4.30 mark in 2021 looks like a blip, as he followed up a career-low 2.54 last season with his All-Star first half. Of the 94 starters with 70+ innings, he’s in the top 25 in ERA (18th), strikeout rate (22nd at 26.5%) and SIERA (14th at 3.53).

Gallen has twice found himself on Cy Young ballots. He’s likely to land some support for a third season after picking up a deserved first All-Star selection. Gallen has been the clear staff ace for a resurgent Arizona club that went into the All-Star Break percentage points behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. He is eligible for arbitration for another two seasons.

While the trade leans in Arizona’s favor, Chisholm has tapped into a lot of the promise he’d shown as a minor leaguer. He connected on 14 home runs and swiped 12 bases in only 60 games last season, earning an All-Star nod of his own. Unfortunately, he couldn’t play in that game, as his campaign was ended on June 29 by a back injury.

The Fish moved Chisholm to center field to accommodate the acquisition of Luis Arraez over the offseason. Chisholm has gotten mixed reviews from public defensive metrics for his outfield performance. He’s hitting .246/.302/.443 with nine longballs and 14 steals over 183 trips to the dish this year. Injuries have again been a story, as he lost around a month to turf toe on his right foot and is currently on the injured list with an oblique strain.

While the repeated health questions are surely frustrating for Chisholm and the organization alike, he’s flashed the ability to be a franchise building block. Controllable through 2026, he figures to play an everyday role in South Florida for the next few seasons.

In spite of Chisholm’s two absences, Miami is 14 games over .500 and in possession of the National League’s top Wild Card spot. That’s in large part thanks to an excellent rotation. Miami’s starting staff would be better if Gallen were a part of it — every team’s would — but the Fish are as well suited as any club to surrender quality pitching for a potential impact position player. They took a similar approach last offseason, sending Pablo López to Minnesota for Arraez.

Overall, both clubs probably feel strongly about their evaluation of the young player they acquired four seasons ago. Gallen has been healthier and the more valuable player to this point, but Chisholm is one of the top hitters on a Marlins’ club that skews toward pitching. While trades like this don’t happen frequently, the surprising Gallen-Chisholm swap has been impactful for a pair of the NL’s upstart contenders.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

NL Notes: Nationals, Scherzer, Gallen

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Fans of the Nationals received positive injury news today, as their Triple-A affiliate in Rochester announced that left fielder Corey Dickerson is set to begin a rehab assignment. Dickerson signed in Washington on a one-year deal this past offseason, but appeared in just two games for the club prior to the club placing Dickerson on the 10-day injured list with a calf strain. Dickerson, who will celebrate his 34th birthday later this month, is in his eleventh season as a major league player, with a career 112 wRC+.

That solid production would be a boon to a Nationals club that has mostly used 28-year-old outfielder Alex Call in left field while Dickerson has been on the shelf. Call has struggled so far in 143 trips to the plate for the Nationals this season, with a .230/.329/.336 slash line (86 wRC+) so far this season. That being said, Dickerson is not without flaws himself: his wRC+ has declined to a mark of just 97 since the beginning of the 2020 season, and he has hampered by a significant platoon split that has seen him post just a .693 OPS against left-handed pitchers throughout his career.

Fortunately for the Nationals, however, they have a seemingly perfect platoon partner for Dickerson in the form of Stone Garrett, a 27-year-old slugger who has slashed .344/.368/.594 against left-handers in 72 career plate appearances in the majors. Platooning Dickerson with Garrett upon his return to the lineup could help the Nationals solve their offensive woes in left field, where the club’s 85 wRC+ ranks seventh worst in the majors.

Dickerson may not be the only reinforcements on the horizon from the injured list, however. MLB.com’s injury tracker notes that right-hander Chad Kuhl, who signed with the Nationals on a minor league deal during the offseason, threw a simulated game of over 60 pitches earlier this week. Kuhl, who has been on the IL with sprained toe since the beginning of the month, could threaten the spot of right-hander Jake Irvin in the rotation going forward. While Irvin is expected to make his next start, the Nationals figure to reevaluate their rotation after that, with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post noting that Kuhl’s return could give the Nationals the opportunity to manage the 26-year-old Irvin’s innings going forward.

More from around the National League…

  • Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Mets, while not concerned about the neck issue that caused veteran right-hander Max Scherzer to be scratched from his start earlier in the week, are worried that the 38-year-old’s ailment near the scapula, which caused the club to push back one of his starts in mid-April, could be an issue that Scherzer will need to manage all year. It’s been a difficult start to the 2023 campaign for Scherzer, who has posted a 5.56 ERA in 22 2/3 innings amid multiple injury concerns and a 10-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on foreign substances.
  • As noted by Bob Nightengale of USA Today, budding ace Zac Gallen has expressed interest in staying with the Diamondbacks long term, though he noted a preference for avoiding in-season extension negotiations. Gallen, 27, has emerged as one of the game’s best pitchers in recent years, including a breakout campaign last season that saw him post a 2.54 ERA in 184 innings en route to a top 5 finish in NL Cy Young award voting. Fortunately for Arizona, they have plenty of time to discuss a long term deal with their young ace, who is set to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign.

Looking At The Diamondbacks’ Rotation Options

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It’s been a rough few years for the Diamondbacks. After making the playoffs in 2017 and then posting respectable records above .500 in the two following seasons, the last three campaigns have seen their fortunes sink. They finished last in the National League West in 2020 and 2021, then surpassed the Rockies last year for a fourth place finish. During that time, the Dodgers, Giants and Padres have all had strong seasons, making the efforts of the D-Backs feel particularly hopeless. In 2021, they finished 52-110 and 55 games out in the division.

2022 was a step in the right direction, though, and there are some exciting ingredients in place. The position player mix seems to have a lot of good momentum behind it. Even after dealing Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays, the outfield should feature a crop of exciting youngsters, headlined by Corbin Carroll but with Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy also in the mix. On the infield, Ketel Marte is capable of MVP-level production when healthy and at his best. Christian Walker is underrated at first base while shortstop Jordan Lawlar and catcher Gabriel Moreno are considered some of the best prospects in the league.

However, the pitching staff is a bit more precarious at the moment. In 2022, the position players posted a cumulative tally of 19.8 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs, good enough for 15th place in the majors. But the pitchers posted a total of 7.7 fWAR, ranking them 27th. If the team is to re-emerge and start contending again, they will need to get better results from the mound. There were some potentially encouraging developments in their rotation in 2022, but still some uncertainty going forward into 2023.

It’s possible that the club will make further additions via free agency but it’s also possible that they’re done. The club’s payroll is now at $113MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. They’ve been as high as $132MM in the past, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they were at just $91MM last year. That means they’ve already boosted the budget by more than $20MM. For now, let’s take a look at the in-house options, starting with the four veterans.

Zac Gallen

Gallen, 27, seemed to emerge as an ace in 2019 and 2020, making 27 starts with a 2.78 ERA. He had a swoon in 2021, dealing with various injuries and his ERA jumped to 4.30, but he was back in form last year. In 2022, he made 31 starts and logged 184 innings with a 2.54 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. He finished fifth in the voting for the National League Cy Young award and can be controlled via arbitration for three more seasons.

Merrill Kelly

Kelly, 34, parlayed a strong run in the KBO into a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season. That deal also came with a pair of club options. Kelly pitched well enough that they triggered both options and then gave him an extension that runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025. Through four seasons with Arizona so far, he has a 3.96 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He’s certainly a notch below Gallen, but he’s a solid mid-rotation option for the club.

Madison Bumgarner

After spending over a decade with the Giants, Bumgarner came to the D-Backs prior to the 2020 season on a five-year, $85MM deal. Unfortunately, his results immediately took a nosedive after the uniform switch. He had a 3.13 career ERA in his time with the Giants but has posted a 4.98 mark in his three seasons as a Snake. His walk rate is still better than average but his strikeouts have vanished. He punched out 23.9% of opponents on his previous team but it’s been just a 17.7% rate for Arizona. Now 33 years old, it’s hard to expect a sudden bounceback, though the Diamondbacks might give him a chance to try since he still has two years and $37MM left on his deal. That gives him negative trade value at this point and it would be a lot of cash to eat for a Diamondbacks team that’s never been a top spender. However, his salary goes from $23MM this year to $14MM in 2024, which could make some kind of transaction more plausible if he can find better results in 2023.

Zach Davies

Davies, 30 in February, pitched for the D-Backs in 2022. He didn’t blow anyone away but he was passable enough. He made 27 starts with a 4.09 ERA. His 17.9% strikeout rate was a few ticks below average but his 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate were both right around league average. He used his five-pitch mix to keep hitters from doing damage, as his hard hit rate was in the 76th percentile among qualified pitchers and his average exit velocity was in the 75th. The club agreed to a new one-year deal with him yesterday, bringing him back to hopefully provide some steady production while they evaluate their younger pitchers.

Ryne Nelson

If those four pitchers are healthy and throwing well, there will be one spot remaining for a younger pitcher. Nelson will certainly be in that mix to secure the final job. He was selected by Arizona in the second round of the 2019 draft and has been considered one of the club’s better prospects since then. He even cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list of all prospects in the league going into 2022. Last year saw him spend most of his time with the Triple-A Reno Aces, who play in the Pacific Coast League. He made 26 starts for that club with a 5.43 ERA in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment. His 21.6% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate were solid enough for him to get a major league debut in September. He made three starts in the big leagues with a 1.47 ERA, striking out 23.2% of batters faced while walking 8.7% of them. That’s a very small sample size but an encouraging one nonetheless. He’ll turn 25 in February and still has a full slate of options. He could certainly be sent back to Triple-A but an extended audition at the big leagues could be warranted as well.

Drey Jameson

Jameson and Nelson have a very similar trajectory to this point. Jameson was also selected in the 2019 draft, just ahead of Nelson by being selected between the first and second rounds, with the pick the club received for AJ Pollock signing with the Dodgers. Jameson began 2022 in Double-A but posted a 2.41 ERA in four starts and got quickly moved up to Triple-A. With the Aces, he posted a 6.95 ERA in 114 innings in that pitcher-hostile environment. However, his rate stats were decent, striking out 21.2% of hitters, walking 8.2% of them and getting grounders on 48.6% of balls in play. He also got called up to the big leagues in September, just like Nelson, making four starts with a 1.48 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 56.1% ground ball rate. Just like Nelson, he’ll be 25 years old this season and has a full slate of options. The two seem likely to be battling each other for the final rotation spot with one likely to be optioned, but they could also both be in the mix as soon as an injury pops up.

Tommy Henry

Just like Nelson and Jameson, Henry was also nabbed in the 2019 draft. He was selected in competitive balance round B, between the second and third rounds. He posted stronger Triple-A results than the other two last year, with a 3.74 ERA over 21 starts. However, his first taste of the big leagues didn’t go as smooth as he made nine starts with a 5.36 ERA, striking out just 17.6% of hitters while walking 10.2% of them. He’s also 25 and provides a third competitor in the battle for the last rotation job, but it’s possible he’s a bit behind Nelson and Jameson based on his weaker debut. He still has a full slate of options and could be in line for more work in the minors, ready to make the jump again when needed and ready.

Brandon Pfaadt

Pfaadt, 24, began 2022 in Double-A, making 19 starts and logging 105 1/3 innings there. His 4.53 ERA might not look special, but he posted that number despite striking out 32.2% of batters faced and walking just 4.3% of them. A .370 batting average on balls in play surely inflated that ERA to a level higher than he deserved, though 17.9% of his fly balls turning into home runs may have contributed as well. The D-Backs seemed to be willing to look past that ERA, bumping him to Triple-A in August. Pfaadt took very well to the move, despite the strong offensive environment. He tossed 61 2/3 innings over 10 starts for the Aces with a 2.63 ERA, 30.6% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Based on that strong finish, he has surged up prospect rankings. He currently has the #83 slot at Baseball America, is #90 at MLB Pipeline, but FanGraphs is especially bullish and considers him the 25th best prospect in the league. He’s not yet on the club’s 40-man roster since he was only drafted in 2020 and isn’t Rule 5 eligible until this coming December, but he seems destined to make a big league debut well before then.

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When combined, there are some strong elements here for the D-Backs. Gallen gives them an ace and Kelly a solid piece for the middle of the rotation. Davies isn’t terribly exciting but is fine as a backend piece. Bumgarner’s contract is underwater at this point, but he could also be a solid backend guy if he puts the past three years behind him. Those four combined don’t give the club an especially strong rotation, but the four guys behind them give the overall group plenty of upside. If one or two of the young guys have a breakout in 2023, then the rotation picture starts to look much better.

The position player core in Arizona is heavily future-focused, with Carroll, Thomas, Marte, Moreno, Lawlar and others starting to develop into a strong core that could allow the club to continually improve over the coming seasons. With the rotation, the path forward could be very similar. Prospects aren’t sure things, especially when it comes to pitchers, but the Diamondbacks need to hit on young players if they’re not going to spend like the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. For now, there are signs of hope in the desert and the upcoming season will be a fascinating one to watch.

Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

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