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Seibu Lions To Post Yusei Kikuchi Tomorrow

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Dec. 3: Major League clubs have been informed that Kikuchi will be available to them beginning tomorrow morning at 8am ET, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Nov. 23: The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have announced that they will post ace Yusei Kikuchi for Major League teams in early December (English-language link via the Japan Times). The negotiating window for the 27-year-old left-hander will begin on Dec. 5.

This will be the first offseason featuring the new posting system between NPB and MLB. Under the new rules, all 30 teams will have a 30-day window to negotiate with Kikuchi and recently hired agent Scott Boras. It’s a change from the previous iterations of the system — both the former blind bidding and the $20MM maximum posting fee — as the release fee paid to the Lions will now be based on the size of the contract that Kikuchi signs with his new team.

Beyond the actual contract given to Kikuchi, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20 percent of the first $25MM of the deal, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM of the contract, plus another 15 percent of anything beyond $50MM. (A $60MM contract, for instance, would come with a release fee of $10.875MM.) The Lions will also receive a sum equal to 15 percent of any non-guaranteed money that Kikuchi eventually earns (e.g. performance bonuses, option salaries).

Kikuchi won’t turn 28 until next June, meaning his age will be an extremely appealing factor as Major League clubs weigh how heavily to pursue him. Beyond the fact that he’s younger than any other starter on the free-agent market, Kikuchi’s performance over the past several seasons has established him as one of the top starters in all of NPB. Over the past four seasons, Kikuchi has worked to a pristine 2.58 ERA with averages of 8.9 strikeouts, 3.1 walks and 0.68 home runs per nine innings pitched. The general belief with Kikuchi is that he can function, at the very least, as a serviceable fourth starter, though the most optimistic teams are more bullish on his upside.

Given the sizable number of clubs looking to add to their rotations this offseason, the general lack of available top-end pitching and the upside the left-hander brings to the table, Kikuchi’s market should be a robust mix of contenders and non-contenders alike. The Padres, for instance, are reported to be seeking starters who are young enough to contribute to the rotation by the time the bulk of the team’s core has emerged in the Majors — perhaps in the 2020-21 seasons. The Phillies, too, have been linked to Kikuchi, as have the Dodgers. Not every team with some rotation questions will embark on an aggressive pursuit, of course — the Red Sox are said to be “lukewarm” on the lefty — but interest will be expansive enough that Boras should secure a strong multi-year deal for the market’s top international player this winter.

Pitching Market Notes: Eovaldi, Yankees, Happ, Kikuchi, Gray, MadBum

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After a busy day of arbitration decisions, it’s worth taking stock of some recent developments in the broader market. We’ve already touched upon some major storylines today, with looks at Patrick Corbin (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Carlos Carrasco (link). Here’s more …

  • Though Corbin seems to be captivating the market at present, chatter on Nathan Eovaldi is also “heating up,” per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox and Astros are presently seen as prime contenders to land him. With the American League shaping up to be another clash of titans, those organizations are positioned t stake some dough on Eovaldi’s upside.
  • The Yankees are a major player on Corbin, of course, but also some other arms — and not just as a backup plan. Indeed, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter), the club could even add another significant starter if it does get Corbin. That’d be quite a surprise, given that the team would appear to have a clear starting five if Corbin signs, but perhaps there’s a way to pull something off that would still make sense and leave the club with immense rotation depth.
  • Meanwhile, southpaw J.A. Happ is said to have “ten teams chasing” him at this point, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. One of those is the Brewers, who’d presumably like to bolster their rotation but also don’t appear to have an immense amount of money to use. Of course, giving up on Jonathan Schoop clears a big piece of payroll, so long as the club finds a way to address its infield needs without using all the savings.
  • There’s also a “strong” market for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Heyman tweets. Unsurprisingly, west coast clubs — the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners, at least — appear to be lining up for the 27-year-old. It’s still hard to know what kind of salary and duration he’ll be able to command. But as this particular list of clubs shows, Kikuchi’s unusual youth will play a major role in his market by opening the door to quite a few organizations to pursue him.
  • Elsewhere, the Yankees are still trying to offload an asset in Sonny Gray. Per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, with GM Brian Cashman saying he has discussed a multitude of different scenarios involving Gray, including some larger deals. That suggests that the Yanks are comfortable hanging onto Gray for a while as they sort through the possibilities, rather than putting him on the market and taking the best deal then available.
  • Gray is as good as gone from the team’s perspective, but that’s clearly not the same situation for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The burly southpaw is reportedly on the table. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be priced at a level that will lead to a deal. Indeed one organizational source tells Heyman (Twitter link) they “don’t see [Bumgarner] going anywhere this winter.” Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return. Teams with interest, though, will remain wary of a big price for one season of a player with recent shoulder woes and some performance questions.

Yankees Notes: Ottavino, Kikuchi, Harper

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A few notes from the Bronx…

  • With crucial bullpen pieces David Robertson and Zach Britton among their free agents, the Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, according to general manager Brian Cashman (via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). One of those pickups may be free-agent right-hander Adam Ottavino, whom the Yankees are interested in, Sherman reports. The 33-year-old Ottavino – a New York City native – just put up a career season in Colorado, where he logged a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across 77 2/3 innings. On the heels of his marvelous 2018 campaign, MLBTR predicts Ottavino will join the Yankees on a three-year, $30MM contract this offseason.
  • The Yankees have discussed signing Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, team owner Hal Steinbrenner revealed earlier this month (per David Lennon of Newsday). “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings,” Steinbrenner said. “We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year.” Steinbrenner’s comments came before the Yankees acquired fellow lefty James Paxton from the Mariners this past Monday, which in theory could lessen the need for Kikuchi. However, the Yankees still seem destined to get at least one more high-end starter this offseason, and they’ve never been shy about pursuing hyped Japanese talent, evidenced by past signings such as Hideki Irabu, Hideki Matsui, Kei Igawa and Masahiro Tanaka. While the 27-year-old Kikuchi’s not yet available to major league clubs, that will change when the Seibu Lions – his team in Nippon Professional Baseball – post him in early December.
  • New York is loaded in the outfield, where it boasts Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury. Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper seems like more of a luxury than a need, then, though there has been speculation about the Yankees signing the superstar to play first base, where their top holdover, Luke Voit, dominated late in 2018 but doesn’t carry an extensive major league track record. Earlier this week, Cashman discussed the possibility of signing Harper to line up at first, telling the YES Network (via Mike Rosenstein of NJ.com): “People have talked about Bryce Harper being able to play first base, I don’t know if he can or can’t. I know he’s very athletic, but that’s not necessarily a bet I would recommend placing with the amount of money he’s expected to get.” Although Cashman doesn’t seem enthusiastic about Harper as a first base option, the executive added that he’s “not ruling anything out.”

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For McCutchen, Kikuchi, Donaldson, And More

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed on November 18th, and earlier this week we ran through our readers’ team predictions for each of the top ten free agents.  Now, let’s check out another batch of reader picks:

11.  Andrew McCutchen – Indians (13.6%), Braves (9.3%), Cubs (9.2%), Pirates (5.4%), Phillies (4.9%), Yankees (4.8%), Nationals (4.3%), Mets (4.3%), Cardinals (4.0%), White Sox (3.6%), Mariners (3.4%), Giants (3.2%), Rockies (3.2%), Diamondbacks (3.1%)

12.  Yusei Kikuchi – Padres (18.8%), Mariners (12.0%), Dodgers (11.5%), Angels (9.7%), Giants (4.8%), Yankees (4.5%), Red Sox (4.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Rangers (3.2%)

13.  Josh Donaldson – Cardinals (50.1%), Braves (6.1%), Indians (6.0%), Mets (4.5%), Phillies (4.0%), Angels (3.8%), White Sox (2.8%)

14.  Charlie Morton – Astros (35.6%), Phillies (13.0%), Nationals (5.9%), Brewers (5.1%), Braves (3.4%), Angels (3.2%), Athletics (2.8%)

15.  Wilson Ramos – Nationals (16.8%), Astros (13.4%), Braves (10.1%), Dodgers (10.1%), Mets (7.3%), Phillies (6.3%), Angels (6.0%), Brewers (3.6%), Mariners (3.6%), Rays (3.0%), Rockies (2.7%), Athletics (2.5%)

16.  Marwin Gonzalez – Astros (10.3%), Twins (7.0%), Cubs (6.7%), Yankees (5.7%), Mets (5.5%), Giants (5.1%), Rockies (4.7%), Brewers (4.7%), Angels (4.4%), Indians (4.2%), Braves (4.0%), Phillies (4.0%), Dodgers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Athletics (3.2%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.0%), Blue Jays (3.0%)

17.  Jeurys Familia – Athletics (12.4%), Mets (9.5%), Twins (6.9%), Cubs (6.7%), Cardinals (6.2%), Red Sox (5.6%), Braves (5.5%), Dodgers (4.5%), Phillies (4.4%), Angels (4.1%), Indians (4.1%), Nationals (3.8%), Brewers (3.8%)

18.  Zach Britton – Astros (11.1%), Red Sox (11.0%), Yankees (10.9%), Cubs (9.8%), Cardinals (8.0%), Dodgers (7.0%), Phillies (6.4%), Braves (5.8%), Mets (5.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Indians (3.4%)

19.  David Robertson – Yankees (28.8%), Mets (11.7%), Red Sox (9.0%), Cubs (4.7%), Braves (4.5%), Cardinals (4.5%), Indians (3.5%), Dodgers (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Nationals (3.2%)

20.  Adam Ottavino – Yankees (11.4%), Rockies (11.2%), Cardinals (7.9%), Dodgers (7.5%), Mets (7.1%), Red Sox (7.0%), Cubs (6.3%), Braves (4.9%), Nationals (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Indians (3.2%), Brewers (3.2%)

Red Sox Rumors: JDM, Bogaerts, Kikuchi, Payroll, Farm

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Both J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are likely to test free agency a year from now, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Martinez has an opt-out provision in his five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski gave no indication of interest in restructuring that deal, per Drellich. “He can choose to leave, it’s his opt out,” said Dombrowski. “But the reason we put ‘em in there were medically oriented as we went through at the time. That medical hasn’t changed.” Dombrowski is referring to medical provisions that were worked into the contract, allowing the Red Sox to convert the final two seasons of the deal into mutual options in the event that Martinez misses enough time due to a preexisting Lisfranc injury in his foot. As for Bogaerts, Dombrowski called his contract situation “important” for the team. Agent Scott Boras, meanwhile, told Drellich he’s “open to any thoughts [the Red Sox] have on the subject.” Asked about a recent extension for fellow client Jose Altuve, Boras pointed out that Bogaerts is two and a half years younger and also plays shortstop.

More from Boston…

  • Boston’s interest in Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams later this month, can be described as “lukewarm,” reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Dombrowski declined to comment on Kikuchi at the GM Meetings, beyond indicating that as one of Japan’s top arms, he’s a pitcher the Sox have scouted frequently in the past (as have many MLB clubs). “Yes, we have a pulse on him,” said Dombrowski. Boston could theoretically look to add some arms behind its top trio of Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello — especially considering Sale’s presence on next year’s free-agent market — but it doesn’t sound as though Kikuchi will be a prime target.
  • In a pair of columns for the Boston Globe, Alex Speier looks at Boston’s payroll/luxury tax situation as well as the team’s poorly regarded farm system. There’s virtually no scenario in which the Sox will avoid another season of luxury tax penalization, Speier observes, making the question not one of if they’ll incur penalty but rather one of how steep a penalty they’re willing to accept. Boston went into the highest luxury bracket this season and will be taxed at the maximum rate while also seeing its top draft pick dropped by 10 spots. Principal owner John Henry tells Speier, “You can’t do that all the time,” but Speier notes that it’s not clear if the organization is willing to do so once more in 2019. From a distance, it’s worth noting that this is the final season of club control over Sale, Martinez and Bogaerts, so there’s a good case to be made for maintaining aggression (though that’s just my own two cents). As for the farm system, Speier notes that a survey of rival evaluators left no real consensus as to the team’s top prospect — a fact that serves to highlight the general uncertainty that permeates the farm. But, the Sox surely have the pieces to once again be active on next summer’s rental market, Speier notes while highlighting a particular concentration of interesting third base prospects.

Pitching Market Notes: Kikuchi, Kimbrel, Happ, Miller, EJax, Patton

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Changes in pitching usage seem likely to shake up the player market — but how? Jayson Stark of The Athletic takes a look at the question, which will in no small part be answered in this winter’s free agent market, in a subscription piece. The broad takeaway is that back-of-the-rotation starter types will still find a market, but perhaps won’t be pursued as forcefully in years past. (It seems fair to add that such pitchers may still be valued for their ability to eat innings, but may also not be asked to gobble up quite as many in hopes that they’ll be more effective.) Meanwhile, teams will perhaps be more willing than before to pay up for highly talented pitchers with durability questions.

Here’s the latest market chatter:

  • The Phillies intend to pursue Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. It bears noting that the Philadelphia organization is also said to be interested in quite a few other appealing free agent hurlers, but it’s particularly notable that the Phils like Kikuchi after watching him pitch in his native Japan. Per a report from the Japan Times, it seems that Kikuchi’s formal posting will be processed sooner than later.
  • If there are several starters on the menu for the Phillies, it seems they could also play at the upper reaches of the relief market. Morosi tweets that they are at least looking into top available closer Craig Kimbrel. Elsewhere, while a reunion between Kimbrel and the Red Sox can’t be counted out, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that it does not seem particularly likely, either. The vibe of the post is that the Boston organization is probably not preparing to out-bid the market on the veteran closer. Though Kimbrel would obviously still have appeal at a reasonable price, Cafardo seems to hint at relatively tepid interest. For instance, he writes, “Red Sox officials usually shrug their shoulders when asked about Kimbrel’s future.”
  • Starter J.A. Happ is a popular early name on the market. The Twins can be counted among the many teams with interest, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’ll be interesting to see whether the southpaw ends up signing relatively early in the winter. The lefty has been much more than a steadying presence in recent season, with intriguing peripherals that suggest he’s better than ever even at 36 years of age. You can track all the prior and future rumors on Happ right here.
  • Veteran lefty Andrew Miller is “definitely seeking [a] multiyear commitment” in free agency, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets. While some have guessed Miller might seek to reestablish some value with a pillow contract, that doesn’t seem to be his preference. There’s also solid early interest. Martino (here) and Morosi (Twitter link) each tie Miller to the Mets, with Martino also noting that the Yankees also are interested. More broadly, Martino writes that the Mets are looking into the entire free agent market for relief help, including the best (and most expensive) arms available. It is difficult to guess at this point how things will turn out, particularly since the Mets have so many bullpen openings. MLBTR gave its best guess recently, though, predicting the Mets would land a pair of notable relievers. As for Miller, we expect he’ll have strong, multi-year offers to choose from.
  • The Athletics have interest in a reunion with Edwin Jackson, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The 35-year-old still managed to average better than 94 mph on his four-seam fastball and got good results from a cutter that became his most-used pitch. One would think he will have multiple suitors after throwing 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball, though the interest will be tempered by less-than-exciting peripherals (6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 36.4% GB) that left ERA estimators rather unimpressed by his 2018 effort (4.65 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA). The Oakland organization secured excellent results from several bounceback hurlers this year and will surely weigh retaining at least some of them, even as it also seeks new possibilities.
  • Right-hander Spencer Patton could weigh a return stateside after two campaigns in Japan, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old may have found another gear while pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars. He worked to a 2.64 ERA in his 116 innings over the past two seasons, recording 10.3 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Patton failed to hold down a big league job despite receiving some opportunities in the past, though he is said to have found some added velocity of late. It seems he’s hearing from a few interested MLB organizations as the offseason gets underway.

Yusei Kikuchi Hires Boras Corporation

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Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi has hired the Boras Corporation to represent him in negotiations with MLB organizations, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Kikuchi is expected to be posted this fall, though there has yet to be a formal announcement to that effect.

With this news that Kikuchi will join one of the game’s most powerful agencies, it seems easy to presume that he’ll indeed be coming over this fall. While the Seibu Lions have indicated they’ll post him if that’s his wish, the star hurler had expressed at least some uncertainty at the conclusion of the Nippon Professional Baseball season.

Kikuchi represents an intriguing potential wild card on the market. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote in ranking Kikuchi #12 among possible free agents this winter, there’s reason to believe that the southpaw could slot comfortably into the middle of an MLB rotation. That makes him a valuable asset, particularly at just 27 years of age. On the other hand, Kikichi has had some shoulder issues and isn’t reputed to have an arsenal as impressive as those of countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka.

All things considered, it’s tough to guess at Kikuchi’s true earning power, though we pegged it at six years and $42MM (with Seibu also receiving about $8MM in fees) in our predictions. No doubt, Kikuchi will hope that agent Scott Boras will help find him a robust market and maximize his earnings. Boras has previously represented several players who were seeking to move to the majors, perhaps none more notable or memorable than Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Find up-to-date information on player representation in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Market Notes: Richards, Kikuchi, Rockies, Realmuto

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Our predictions at the top of the free agent market are certainly not for the faint of heart; by our reckoning, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have chances at securing record-setting contracts. Whether or not that’ll come to pass remains to be seen, but a more pressing question for hot-stove enthusiasts may be whether we’ll see a repeat of last winter’s agonizingly slow market. It seems fair to say our overall slate of predictions represents a general bet that the activity will pick up this time around. Indeed, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that there’s a broader sense that the 2018-19 offseason will feature action. The player market, he says, could be “robust early” and “awfully busy” all winter long.

We heard earlier about some intriguing possibilities in Cleveland. For the most part, though, things are just starting to get heated up. Here’s some early chatter:

  • While Garrett Richards will hit the market while still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, that doesn’t mean he won’t draw strong interest. Indeed, a dozen teams have already reached out, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). It’s no surprise to hear that, as quite a variety of clubs have agreed to two-year contractual arrangements with recovering hurlers in recent seasons, primarily in hopes of capturing value in the second season of the deal. MLBTR predicts that Richards will land a deal right in line with some of those cases.
  • The Dodgers factor as a strong possible suitor for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. It’s hard to argue with that assessment based upon recent history, even if the Los Angeles club seems to be well on its way to filling out a deep rotation mix. The Dodgers have secured several talented but less-hyped starters from Asia via the posting process and have given out several large deals to pitchers with injury questions. In this case, Kikuchi figures to draw a number of suitors, particularly since he’s just 27 years of age. But recent shoulder woes could be a red flag for some organizations. Truthfully, it’s exceedingly difficult to get a read on his potential market, but the Dodgers are among the west coast organizations that seem to be rather good fits if Kikuch is posted, as seems likely but has yet to be decided conclusively.
  • As the offseason gets underway, the Rockies represent a bit of a mystery team. They obviously look to be a contender, but have some clear needs and don’t appear to have much payroll flexibility barring a boost in their spending or clever move to shed salary. GM Jeff Bridich said today, as Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets, that the club will seek to oversee “responsible growth with the payroll,” adding that “success begets more growth.” That seems at least to leave open the possibility that the organization could add some more dollars to the books, though what kind of outlay might be possible remains unclear. Improving a lagging offense is the priority, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.
  • While the Marlins have given prior indication that they hoped to pursue a long-term deal with catcher J.T. Realmuto, his agent shot that idea down rather candidly, indicating that he does not expect his client to don a Marlins uniform in 2019. That hasn’t deterred the Miami brass, though, as Wells Dusenbury of the Sun Sentinel was among those to cover (Twitter links). CEO Derek Jeter rejoined recently that the Miami organization will decide where Realmuto plays. Today, president of baseball operations Michael Hill says that Realmuto’s apparent preferences won’t “impact in any way how we approach our offseason.” Of course, it still seems quite likely that the Marlins will end up marketing Realmuto this winter, as his value has undeniably crested after turning in a strong season with two more arb years left to go.

International Notes: Kikuchi, Gaston, Jimenez

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It’s already been reported in Japan that the Seibu Lions intend to post ace left-hander Yusei Kikuchi for Major League teams this offseason, but the pitcher himself said after his team was eliminated from the postseason that he has not yet made a firm decision (link via Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times). “Well, the season just ended,” Kikuchi said. “…Regarding the future, it’s not all up to me. I haven’t had a chance to talk with the team.” Kikuchi, 27, added that he needs to spend time with his family to ponder the decision before making any firm request. Coskrey writes that the Lions have publicly acknowledged that they would honor Kikuchi’s request if he ultimately wishes to be posted. Kikuchi turned in 163 2/3 innings of 3.08 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 for the Lions this season. In 1035 1/3 career innings in Japan, the three-time All-Star has a 2.81 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 — including a combined 2.58 ERA over the past four seasons.

If he is posted, Kikuchi would be free of international spending restrictions and could negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs on a contract. The new posting system between MLB and NPB would require Kikuchi’s new team to pay a fee equal to 20 percent of his contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of his next $25MM and 15 percent of anything beyond that (including incentives, option buyouts, etc.).

A few more notes on the international market…

  • The Marlins spent virtually all of their international bonus pool on brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr., meaning right-hander Sandy Gaston almost certainly won’t be joining the Miami organization. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald reports that Gaston’s camp is seeking a bonus north of $2MM for the 17-year-old flamethrower, with both the Orioles and Rays listed as potential landing spots. Baltimore has a reported sum of near $6.5MM left to spend on international amateurs, while Tampa Bay’s remaining international pool is in the $3.5MM range at present.
  • The White Sox have signed infielder Enoy Jimenez, the 17-year-old younger brother of top prospect Eloy Jimenez, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America (via Twitter). Scouting information on the younger Jimenez brother is virtually nonexistent, though it should be noted that the White Sox are barred from spending more than $300K on any international amateur signing due to their pool-shattering $26MM agreement with Luis Robert from the 2016-17 signing period, meaning Enoy couldn’t have received an especially large bonus. That certainly doesn’t mean that Enoy isn’t without upside — many high-profile Latin American players sign for only a few thousand dollars — but whatever the exact amount of the bonus was, it undoubtedly falls well shy of the $2.8MM the Cubs paid to sign Eloy back in 2013.

Seibu Lions To Post Yusei Kikuchi

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The Seibu Lions will make left-hander Yusei Kikuchi available this winter via the posting system, according to a report from Sankei Sports (hat tip to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times).  The 27-year-old isn’t eligible for full free agency until 2020, but reports from earlier this year indicated that Kikuchi was interested in testing himself in Major League Baseball, and it had been expected that the Seibu Lions would accommodate his request.

Kikuchi immediately becomes one of the most intriguing members of the 2018-19 free agent class, as he has posted strong numbers over eight pro seasons (all with Seibu Lions, apart from five starts in the Australian Baseball League in his rookie year).  Kikuchi has a 2.81 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 2.43 K/BB rate over 1035 1/3 career innings, and particularly stood out after recording a 1.97 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over a career-best 197 2/3 frames in 2017.

Despite taking a bit of a step back results-wise (3.08 ERA, 3.40 K/BB rate, 8.4 K/9) this season, Kikuchi still drew quite a bit of attention from Major League scouts.  Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently wrote that “most teams have been to Japan to see him this year,” specifically naming the Royals, Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies as interested suitors.  Evaluators from the Brewers, Giants, Red Sox, and Rangers also recently watched Kikuchi, as per the Kyodo News’ Jim Allen (Twitter link).

For an idea of what Kikuchi brings to the mound, Fangraphs’ Sung Min Kim provided a scouting report before the season, while MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi had a look at Kikuchi’s 2018 season back in August.  Kikuchi has a strong slider and a fastball in the 92-94mph range (that has touched 98mph at its fastest) as his two primary pitches, and he has worked both a changeup and a curveball into his repertoire this season, as former big leaguer and current Rakuten Golden Eagles pitcher Frank Herrmann told Morosi.  Herrmann warned that Kikuchi’s slider wasn’t as effective this year as it was in 2017, which led to Kikuchi leaning more heavily on his two secondary pitches.  Kim used Patrick Corbin as a partial comp for Kikuchi, as another left-hander with a strong fastball-slider combination, with the caveat that Kikuchi’s usage of the curve roughly 10% of the time is a notable difference between he and the Diamondbacks hurler.

Kikuchi’s durability could also be an issue, as shoulder problems have bothered him at several points during his career, including this season.  Kikuchi “had not reached the qualified amount of innings pitched in a season until 2016,” Kim writes.  The southpaw is listed at just 6’0″ and 194 pounds, and thus doesn’t have the big frame that would more easily project as capable of handling a regular turn in a Major League rotation, so interested teams could be wary of how Kikuchi would hold up health-wise.  That said, with more and more teams using their bullpens in creative ways, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kikuchi eased the big leagues by pitching receiving an extra day of rest, working on a limited pitch count in starts, or any number of other possible answers if his shoulder is of particular concern.

Kikuchi first appeared on the Major League radar screen back in 2009, when he considered taking the unusual step of signing with an MLB team as an amateur rather than an NPB club.  It’s interesting that several of the teams — the Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Giants — interested in Kikuchi almost a decade ago are still keeping an eye on him now, after he has established himself as a quality starter in Japanese baseball.

There was some thought earlier this year that Kikuchi could land a $100MM contract from a Major League team, though it’s possible that price tag has dropped thanks to the slight dip in form and the shoulder problems that Kikuchi dealt with over the 2018 season.  Kikuchi’s age and experience makes him exempt from the international bonus pool system, so he is in line for a very lucrative multi-year contract rather than the limited deal that Shohei Ohtani had to settle for as a 23-year-old last winter.

Kikuchi also looks to be the first major name whose arrival in North American baseball will be covered by the new posting agreement between MLB and NPB.  Under the former agreement, Japanese teams would receive a posting fee that maxed out at $20MM, whereas now teams will receive a posting fee that is determined by the size of the contract that the player signs with his new Major League team.  Morosi notes that a player must be posted between November 1 and December 5, and the player will have a 30-day window to negotiate with teams after being posted.

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