Yusei Kikuchi

Japanese-Born MLB Player Round Up

By Dai Takegami Podziewski | June 13, 2023 at 8:00pm CDT

Many star players from NPB have made their way to MLB to take on a new challenge.

Some of them became household names like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Some were consistent and solid players for a long period like Hiroki Kuroda and Koji Uehara. Some failed to meet the hype and lofty expectations like Kei Igawa and Kazuo Matsui. Some became fan favorites like Munenori Kawasaki.

The 2021 AL MVP and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani headlines the current batch of Japanese big-league players, and rightfully so. These players are a fascinating group that features exciting rookies, experienced veterans, and players looking to make their mark in MLB. Their performances go a long way in promoting the globalization of the sport but also provide fans, scouts, and front offices a better baseline for evaluating future talent from NPB.

How are their respective seasons going? Let’s break it down.

(All stats as of 6/11/2023)

Shohei Ohtani

Big surprise, Ohtani is once again among the frontrunners in the AL MVP race with his one-of-a-kind value as a two-way player. At the plate, he is hitting .291/.362/.593 with 50 RBI and an AL-leading 20 homers.

He had a hot start on the mound to start the season, with a 0.64 ERA and a .093 opponent batting average in his first five starts. Since his last start in April against the A’s, Ohtani has really struggled with the long ball. All 11 homers allowed on the season have come since that start.

On the season, Ohtani has a 3.32 ERA in 13 starts, with a 33.3 K% in 76 innings pitched. He has been plagued by shaky control in some starts, and his walk rate is up to 11.1% compared to 6.7% last season.

You can find Ohtani updates, including reports of every start, endorsement deals, and hot stove news on his player page on MLBTR, or shoheiohtanirumors.com.

Kodai Senga

The Mets signed the 30-year-old right-hander to a five-year, $75MM deal last December. Senga was immediately thrown into the fire in the early weeks of the season as the anchor of a depleted Mets rotation that was impacted by injuries to Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco and Max Scherzer’s suspension.

So far, Senga has answered the call and shown the talent that made him one of the most coveted starting pitchers in the 2022 offseason. Senga has a 3.34 ERA in 12 starts and 64 ⅔ innings pitched this season. He had a 4.15 ERA in his first five starts, but he has maintained a 2.79 ERA in his last seven. He is striking out hitters at a strong 28.3% rate, but walking hitters at a 14.3% clip.

Senga’s notorious ‘Ghost Fork’ splitter, which made him a household name in Japan, is no fluke. Hitters are only hitting .108 against the forkball and whiffing at a whopping 59.8% rate, one of the highest in MLB.

The next step in Senga’s transition to MLB is building consistency in control that will allow him to be more efficient and pitch deeper into games. In his final season in NPB, Senga walked 8.6% of hitters, so it’s certainly possible.

Masataka Yoshida

The 29-year-old outfielder signed a five-year, $90MM deal with the Red Sox after seven highly productive seasons in Japan for the Orix Buffaloes. The hefty price tag surprised many, given the questions of his slight frame at 5’8″ and power numbers in NPB traditionally not translating well to the big leagues. The ‘Macho Man’ has rewarded the organization’s faith with his patient and disciplined approach, bat-to-ball skills, and sharp swing. Yoshida is now one of the frontrunners in the AL Rookie of the Year race with his borderline All-Star-level production at the plate.

Yoshida is hitting .300/.375/.467 with seven homers, 33 RBI, and a 132 wRC+. After overcoming a nightmarish start (.189/.317/.264 in first 53 at-bats) to his MLB career, he’s been one of the most consistent bats for the Red Sox. Yoshida joined Ichiro as one of only two players this century to have reached base 85+ times and struck out 25 or fewer times in their first 50 career games.

He turned a corner after working with both Red Sox and Orix Buffaloes coaches and making appropriate adjustments, including lowering his hands. He continues to be proactive with his adjustments. After a rare three-strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks, the Sox coaching staff tweaked his approach and Yoshida responded with a .480/.581/.760 line in the next seven games.

Defensively, there is room for improvement for the outfielder. The Statcast metrics are not favorable, as he ranks in the tenth percentile and 12th percentile in outs above average and outfielder jump, respectively. He should be able to make marginal improvements in that area as he continues to familiarize himself with the Green Monster and the unique outfield at Fenway Park. Could he be making his way to Seattle for the All-Star game in July? We shall see.

Seiya Suzuki

The 28-year-old outfielder is in the second year of his five-year, $85MM deal with the Cubs. He was limited to 110 games in his first season by injury, hitting .262/.336/.433 along with 14 homers and 46 RBI.

After a slow start in April where he hit .254/.333/.373 and just one home run, Suzuki had an excellent month in May, hitting .319/.417/.560 and five homers. On the season, Suzuki is hitting .278/.367/.450 with six homers, 19 RBI, and 124 wRC+ in 50 games.

So far in his big league career, Suzuki has shown fans glimpses of the five-tool skill set that made him an appealing player in the 2021 offseason but has yet to have his breakout moment.

He has shown excellent plate discipline, walking at a 12.1% rate, and ranks in the 92nd percentile on Statcast chase rate. Despite his plate discipline, Suzuki strikes out quite often, with a 26.1 K%. Suzuki seems to struggle against pitches with movement, hitting just .216 against sinkers and .176 against cutters. Four-seamers with “clean” spin are traditionally more valued over moving pitches in Japan, so it is common for Japanese hitters to struggle with movement since they lack reps.

Suzuki has been as advertised on the defensive end, recording two outs above average, thanks to a 98th-percentile outfielder jump and 92nd-percentile arm strength.

Yu Darvish

The right-hander signed a five-year, $90MM contract extension in February, keeping him on the team through 2028. Darvish had a self-proclaimed best season of his career in 2022, tossing 194 2/3 innings with a 3.10 ERA, 25.6 K%, and 4.8 BB%.

He hasn’t been at his absolute best in 2023, with a 4.30 ERA, 26.3 K%, 7.5 BB% in 69 innings, but is still putting up above-average peripheral numbers on Statcast and still featuring a unique eight-pitch mix. If you remove his May 28th start against the Yankees where he got knocked around for seven runs in 2 ⅔ innings, his ERA would be 3.53.

He reached the 100 wins mark in his last start against the Rockies on June 9, joining Hideo Nomo as the only Japanese MLB pitchers to reach that mark.

Yusei Kikuchi

In his second season as a Blue Jay, Kikuchi is still navigating his way to be a consistently productive starter. The left-hander had his worst season in the majors since his rookie season, largely due to poor control and a questionable pitch mix.

Coming into 2023, Kikuchi made subtle changes in his delivery and mechanics, while sporting a new beard and swagger. He was off to a solid start, with a 3.00 ERA in April, but had a tough May where he gave up nine home runs and had a 5.83 ERA. On the season, Kikuchi has a 4.34 ERA, 22.7 K%, and 7.4 BB% in 66 ⅓ innings, while giving up an MLB-worst 18 home runs.

The left-hander is throwing harder than he ever has, with average fastball velocity up to 95.3 mph compared to 92.5 mph his first year in MLB. It hasn’t necessarily translated to a high-quality pitch, however. While Kikuchi is getting whiffs at a 29.7% rate with his fastball, hitters are still getting good contact and hitting .315 against it.

Although Kikuchi has improved his walk rate by five percentage points from last season, his bad starts are still marked by control issues and giving up the long ball while working behind in the count. The Blue Jays will need every solid performance they can get from Kikuchi in a competitive AL East, especially with Alek Manoah being optioned to the Florida Complex League.

Kenta Maeda

The 35-year-old Twins right-hander is attempting a full comeback from Tommy John surgery in 2021. The veteran has faced several setbacks in his recovery. He took a 111.6 mph liner off his left foot against the Red Sox on April 20. In his next start against the Yankees, Maeda gave up a career-worst 10 runs in three innings. He was then placed on the IL with a strained triceps.

Maeda completed his third rehab start for Triple-A St. Paul on June 10. He tossed four shutout innings and struck out five, and will be returning to the big league team in the coming weeks. “The (velocity) was good, the splitter was good, the slider was good. Everything was good,” said St. Paul manager Toby Gardenhire (link via Dean Spiros of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press).

Shintaro Fujinami

The Athletics signed Fujinami to a one-year, $3MM deal in January, with the A’s front office rolling the dice on Fujinami’s 100 mph fastball and potential plus strikeout stuff, despite control issues.

He opened the season in the rotation but was quickly moved to the bullpen at the end of April after allowing 24 runs in just 15 innings and walking 12 batters. It has been more of the same for the 29-year-old right-hander since moving to the bullpen, with a 11.12 ERA on the season while walking 17% of hitters.

It’s been a struggle for Fujinami to throw strikes to say the least. His 29 total walks is the most in MLB for pitchers under 40 innings thrown. When he does find the strike zone, the 6’6 righty is getting shelled. He has a hard hit percentage of 49%, which ranks in the seventh percentile.

Fujinami has dug himself a deep hole in terms of establishing himself as a big league pitcher, but he’s continuing to get opportunities to prove himself on an A’s pitching staff with minimal depth.

Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

By Simon Hampton | April 29, 2023 at 11:20am CDT

We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

MLBTR Poll: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter

By Darragh McDonald | January 9, 2023 at 7:02pm CDT

Four of the Blue Jays’ five starting jobs are set. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had great seasons last year and will be back in 2023. José Berríos is coming off a disappointing season but has a strong track record and six years left on his extension, making him a lock on another spot. Chris Bassitt will also be in there after the club agreed to give him $63MM over three years this winter, in addition to surrendering a draft pick and international bonus space because Bassitt rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

The final spot is less certain, however, with a few potential options that could step up and take the job. Hyun Jin Ryu is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could be back around the All-Star break, though that’s still an estimate at this point. Someone will have to take the fifth spot for at least the first half. Even if Ryu does meet that timeline and comes back for the second half, it’s possible that an injury to one of the other pitchers creates a continued need for another arm. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the candidates.

Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi is probably considered the frontrunner for the fifth starter right now, just based on experience. After years of strong work in Japan, Kikuchi came over to North America by signing with the Mariners prior to 2019. He spent three years with Seattle, posting some intriguing but inconsistent results.

He reached free agency after 2021 and signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Jays. He made 2o starts last year but got bumped to the bullpen after registering a 5.25 ERA in that time. He’d go on to toss 18 1/3 innings in the bullpen with a slightly better 4.91 ERA, though the underlying numbers were more encouraging. His 24.5% strikeout rate as a starter jumped up to an incredible 39.8% rate as a reliever, while his control also improved. He posted a 13.2% walk rate in the rotation but walked just 10.8% of batters faced out of the ’pen. A .371 batting average on balls in play as a reliever perhaps helped to push his ERA up, with his 4.15 FIP and 2.28 xFIP suggesting he deserved better, though it’s also possible he was just getting hit hard.

That’s a small sample size but it perhaps suggests there’s a chance Kikuchi has a nice floor as a left-handed reliever if he eventually gets pushed out of the rotation for good. However, it’s also possible he gets another chance to start since he’s the most experienced of this bunch, turning 32 in June. He can at least bring some velocity, as he averages around 95 mph on his fastball, one of the best such marks among left-handed starters in the game. But it doesn’t seem to be a challenge for big league hitters, as Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last year in terms of barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He has a 5.02 ERA through 466 1/3 MLB innings at this point and will have to figure out a way to get better results. Even if he gets the fifth starter job out of Spring Training, he should have other guys on his heels throughout the season.

Mitch White

White, 28, was a second round pick of the Dodgers in 2016 and had been a well-regarded prospect in the years after that. He’s spent the past three years without a firm role, frequently being optioned to the minors and recalled to the majors as needed, making starts but also relief appearances.

In 2021, he made 21 appearances in the majors, including four starts. He tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA, getting grounders at a 47.7% rate while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 8.6% of them. Things went even better in 43 2/3 innings in the minors, with White posting a 1.65 ERA, with a 30.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.

In the first few months of 2022, White only made a couple of Triple-A appearances, spending most of his time with the big league club. He made 10 starts and five relief appearances, logging 56 innings. He had a solid 3.70 ERA and 8% walk rate, though his strikeout rate dipped to 19.8%. The Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline but the switch didn’t help his results. He made 10 appearances for the Jays, including eight starts, and posted a 7.74 ERA in that time. His walk and ground ball rates stayed around average but his strikeout rate fell even further to 15.3%.

Despite that rough start to his Toronto tenure, there’s plenty to like in White overall. He was in the 79th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate, 77th in barrel rate and 63rd in average exit velocity. His .276 BABIP as a Dodger and .368 mark as a Blue Jay explain the different results somewhat. All of the advanced metrics liked his Toronto work much better than that huge ERA, including a 3.76 FIP, 4.68 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA. White is now out of options so the Jays will have to keep him in the bullpen as a long man if he doesn’t snag the rotation job, but he has five years of control remaining and should get some starting opportunities whenever the circumstances allow.

Nate Pearson

Pearson, 26, arguably has the most upside of anyone on this list. Selected by the Jays in the first round of the 2017 draft, he posted great results in the minors and shot up prospect rankings. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the game by the start of 2018 and he got as high as #7 in 2020.

Unfortunately, injuries have stalled Pearson out since then, as he hasn’t been able to throw 50 innings in any of the past three seasons. Elbow tightness limited him to 18 innings in 2020, plus two more in the postseason. The following year, he dealt with a groin strain and a shoulder impingement, then underwent surgery on a sports hernia at season’s end. Between the majors and minors, he tossed 45 2/3 innings on the year. In 2022, his early season ramp-up was delayed by mononucleosis and he then suffered a lat strain while rehabbing. He was only able to throw 15 1/3 innings in the minors, though he was healthy enough by the end of the year to play in the Dominican Winter League. He tossed 12 innings for Tigres del Licey without allowing an earned run, striking out 36.4% of batters faced.

The fact that Pearson finished the year healthy and dealing in winter ball is encouraging, but it’s hard to expect much from him in the immediate future. He might still be a big league starter someday, but after three straight seasons of injuries and scattered appearances, it’s probably unwise to expect him to suddenly jump to the range of 150 innings in 2023. When he was last healthy for an extended stretch, he pitched 101 2/3 minor league innings in 2019 with a 2.30 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The talent is clearly there but his workload capacity is an unanswered question.

Thomas Hatch

Hatch, 28, was a third round pick of the Cubs in 2016 but came to the Jays in a 2019 deadline deal that sent David Phelps to Chicago. Hatch had an encouraging major league debut in 2020, tossing 26 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA. However, the last couple of seasons have been a struggle, with Hatch posting middling results in the minors and only getting into four big league games between the two campaigns. In 2022, he made a single start for the Jays and allowed 10 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. In 131 Triple-A innings, he had a 4.67 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s still on the 40-man and has another option year left, but he’s likely just an emergency starting candidate unless he takes a step forward this year.

Bowden Francis

Francis, 27 in April, was a seventh-round selection of the Brewers in 2017 but came to the Jays in the 2021 Rowdy Tellez trade. He was added to the Jays’ roster in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Francis scuffled last year, despite a scoreless MLB debut that lasted 2/3 of an inning. He tossed 98 1/3 innings in the minors with a 6.59 ERA, getting outrighted off the roster in June.

However, Francis suited up for winter ball, joining Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico. That stint has gone extremely well for him, with Francis making nine starts with a 1.51 ERA over 35 2/3 innings. He’s struck out 47 of the 136 batters he’s faced for an excellent 34.6% rate. He’s still a long shot to earn a spot with the Jays since he’s no longer on the 40-man, but he could be an interesting wild card in this deck.

Yosver Zulueta

The Blue Jays picked up some extra international bonus pool money by trading Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr. and used that to sign Zulueta out of Cuba in June of 2019, just before the signing period which began in July of 2018 was set to conclude. At that time, Zulueta had already been clocked at 98 mph, per a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Since then, Zulueta’s rise has been stalled by a couple of factors. He required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing and spent 2020 rehabbing. In 2021, he faced one batter before tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, wiping out the rest of that year. In 2022, finally healthy, Zulueta had a breakout year in the minors, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A and then Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.72 ERA over 55 2/3 innings, striking out 33.9% of batters faced while walking 12.9% of them.

At the end of the year, the Jays added Zulueta to the 40-man to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft and Baseball America ranked him the second-best prospect in the system, trailing only the pitcher below him in this article. Zulueta is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate solution for the Jays. After some extended injury time, he still needs to build up his workload and refine his command. But once he does, he has a triple-digit heater that headlines a four-pitch mix. He turns 25 his month and has a full slate of options, suggesting there will be no rush to push him into the big league rotation. But as the Jays recently showed with Manoah, they can be aggressive with young hurlers once the pitcher shows himself ready.

Ricky Tiedemann

Tiedemann, 20, was selected by the Jays in the third round of the 2021 draft. In 2022, he began the year in Low-A and then jumped to High-A and Double-A in his age-19 season. He tossed 78 2/3 innings over those three levels with a 2.17 ERA, striking out 38.9% of batters faced while walking 9.6% of them.

That performance led to him shooting up prospect rankings last year. As mentioned, BA now considers him the best prospect in the system, with Gabriel Moreno having been traded to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho deal. They also currently have him ranked the #28 prospect in the entire league, with MLB Pipeline similarly bullish by ranking him #33.

Like Zulueta, Tiedemann is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate option for the Jays. He’s still incredibly young and won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2025. However, since he reached Double-A last year, there’s a chance he’ll be knocking on the door this year.

External Addition

It’s also possible that the Jays look outside the organization to find someone they like better than any of these options. The club has reportedly shown interest in Johnny Cueto, suggesting they could add a short-term veteran to take over and push everyone else down the depth chart. Cueto seems to have plenty of interest, with the Reds, Marlins and Padres among those who seem to be in the mix. If the Jays miss on him, some other remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. If the Jays are willing to swing another trade, the Marlins have plenty of arms available, the Mariners seem to have some openness to dealing Chris Flexen, while the Brewers seem stacked in the rotation and could consider trading someone like Adrian Houser.

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What do you think? Which of these guys will make the most starts for the Jays in 2023? Have your say in the poll below!

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Ross Atkins Addresses Blue Jays Offseason

By Simon Hampton | October 11, 2022 at 11:02pm CDT

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins addressed reporters following the team’s playoff exit at the hands of the Mariners. With a manager still holding the interim tag, a young core that’s getting more and more expensive, and veterans dealing with injuries there’s plenty of question marks going into the offseason in Toronto.

Atkins didn’t make any firm commitments at manager just yet. Asked about the status of interim skipper John Schneider, Atkins noted that it would be “very difficult for us to find better than [him]” but cautioned he “wants more time to work through the (hiring) process” (via Julia Kreuz of MLB.com). The Jays fired Charlie Montoyo in July with the team 46-42. Schneider was handed the team through the end of the season, and the Jays went 46-28 with him at the helm. While the improvement under Schneider is evident, the team did still fall well short of expectations in the playoffs. Atkins and his front office staff certainly wouldn’t rule Schneider out because of two games, and there’d seem to be a good chance he’s retained, but he wasn’t prepared to make any move at this point.

On the playing side, Atkins seemed to indicate running back the current core to be the best path to a championship for the team. The GM both downplayed any urgency to make a core-altering trade and indicated the club had laid the groundwork in extension talks with some core players in hopes of further discussions this offseason (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Atkins didn’t divulge any specifics, but it stands to reason players like Alek Manoah, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette would fit into that group. Guerrero has three more seasons of arbitration control but is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $14.1MM next year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player in 2021. Bichette is projected for $6.1MM in his first year of eligibility and is likewise controllable through 2025. Manoah is controllable through 2027 and not yet arbitration eligible, although he’s likely to qualify for Super Two at the end of next season.

Atkins was non-committal on how active the Jays will be in free agency, but Nicholson-Smith mentions they’re expected to pursue starting pitching help. Kevin Gausman is a lock to lead the rotation, but Jose Berrios struggled to a 5.23 ERA in 2022, while Yusei Kikuchi pitched his way out of the rotation with a 5.19 ERA. Berrios will get a chance to turn things around in 2023, while Kikuchi is expected to get another crack at pitching out of the rotation next year. However, Ross Stripling is an impending free agent and Hyun Jin-Ryu will miss most, if not all, of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Atkins also addressed the status of George Springer, who left the Jays final playoff game after colliding with Bichette while pursuing a shallow fly ball. The Jays announced this morning that Springer had sustained a concussion and a strained left shoulder. Atkins indicated today that Springer also has a bone spur in his right elbow and could undergo offseason surgery (Nicholson-Smith). In any event, the expectation is that he’ll be ready for spring training, although given he’s 33 with a checkered injury past and declining defensive numbers it’s fair to wonder how long the Jays will count on him as an everyday center fielder.

Injury Notes: Kikuchi, Soroka, Peralta, Segura

By Anthony Franco | July 8, 2022 at 8:42am CDT

The Blue Jays placed struggling starter Yusei Kikuchi on the 15-day injured list last night due to a neck strain. The team didn’t provide any specifics on a timetable for his return, but he’ll be out of action at least through the All-Star Break.

Kikuchi may have been in danger of ceding his rotation spot anyhow, as manager Charlie Montoyo implied before his IL placement the club could move him to the bullpen in lieu of his next scheduled start (link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). That’s reflective of how poorly the southpaw has pitched of late, as he’s been tagged for a 7.99 ERA in seven starts since the calendar turned to June. That brought his season line up to a 5.12 ERA, on track for his third 5.00+ mark in his four MLB seasons. He’s dominated same-handed batters but been tattooed for a .270/.397/.526 clip against righties, a trend he also showed throughout his three seasons with the Mariners.

With Kikuchi’s underperformance and the loss of Hyun-jin Ryu to Tommy John surgery, the Jays are widely expected to prioritize starting pitching help over the coming weeks. Toronto has gotten generally excellent work from Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, while swingman Ross Stripling has stepped in well at the back end. José Berríos is amidst a career-worst season, however, and Nate Pearson won’t resume throwing until the end of the month after suffering a lat strain while building back from a battle with mononucleosis.

In other health situations around the game:

Mike Soroka has made just three starts since the end of the 2019 season. The Braves right-hander tore his Achilles tendon early in 2020, then unfortunately suffered the same fate a year later. Soroka has been working his way back from that pair of devastating injuries in hopes of a midseason return, but he’s now dealing with another setback. As Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution first reported, the 24-year-old was hit in the knee by a comebacker while throwing live batting practice. Atlanta is calling the injury a bruise and has shut Soroka down for the time being, preferring to make sure his knee is at full strength before he resumes a throwing program. It’s obviously a far more minor concern than either of the Achilles tears have been, but the stroke of poor luck will push back his timeline to begin a minor league rehab assignment by at least a little bit.
The Tigers lost reliever Wily Peralta to the 15-day injured list earlier this week, as he’s dealing with a strained left hamstring. Manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that Peralta is expected to miss a fair bit of time. Hinch suggested it was unlikely he’d be back before the end of July, and it seems possible his absence could extend beyond that. Peralta, who returned to the organization on a minor league deal last winter, has tossed 33 1/3 innings through 23 appearances. The righty has a sparkling 2.16 ERA and a solid 48.4% ground-ball rate, but he’s walked 14% of batters faced with a strikeout rate below the league average.
Jean Segura has been out since the beginning of June. The Phillies second baseman fractured his right index finger on a bunt attempt, an injury that required surgery and came with a 10-12 week recovery estimate. That set his timetable at late August or perhaps into September, but Segura told reporters this week he feels he could beat that initial projection (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). The 32-year-old recently had a trio of pins removed from his finger and is set for further evaluation next week. If that round of testing comes back as hoped, he could be cleared to start throwing and taking swings. Phils second baseman have posted an impressive .268/.339/.429 line since Segura went down, but there’s no question they’d welcome an opportunity to get him back sooner than anticipated and free up some of their utility options for work elsewhere around the infield.

Mets Notes: Luxury Tax, deGrom, Hand, Kikuchi, Nimmo

By Mark Polishuk | March 13, 2022 at 4:25pm CDT

The new collective bargaining agreement included a new penalty tier for teams that exceed the luxury tax ($230MM this season) by more than $60MM. This tier was almost immediately nicknamed “the Steve Cohen tax,” in regards to how the Mets owner has been willing to spend to the utmost on upgrades for his team’s roster. Cohen himself isn’t too worried about either the new tax threshold or being personally attached to it by name, telling The New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar and other reporters that “the way I describe it is, it’s better than a bridge being named after you or something like that.”

While $290MM+ is “still a lot of money to spend on a payroll, I don’t feel like it’s so confining that I can’t live with it,” Cohen said, noting that the Mets will indeed “probably” exceed the top tax threshold. Roster Resource projects that the Mets are already around the $285.5MM mark for this season’s tax number, and with some needs still left to address on the roster, it isn’t any surprise that Cohen isn’t suddenly putting the brakes on spending. Since the Mets didn’t exceed the tax threshold last season, they would be penalized at the “first-timer” rate of 80 percent on the overage of any dollar spent beyond $290MM, plus their top pick in the 2022 draft would be moved back 10 places.

Blue Jays To Sign Yusei Kikuchi

By Darragh McDonald | March 12, 2022 at 1:58pm CDT

The Blue Jays are signing left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It’s a three-year, $36MM contract. (Twitter links) The deal is frontloaded, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, with Kikuchi earning a salary of $16MM in 2022, followed by $10MM in each of 2023 and 2024.

Starting pitching has been a hot commodity this offseason, with most of the top names signing before the lockout. Now that the transactions freeze has thawed, the market has picked up right where it left off. The top two free agent hurlers that lingered on the market through the lockout, Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Rodon, signed on the first full day after the lockout ended. That left Kikuchi and Zack Greinke as the only healthy starters remaining from MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents. With the Jays scooping up Kikuchi, that leaves Greinke as the last man standing.

Kikuchi has been one of the more difficult pitchers to evaluate since coming over from Japan prior to the 2019 season. In his first MLB season, he made 32 starts for the Mariners, throwing 161 2/3 innings with an ERA of 5.46 and a strikeout rate of just 16.1%. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he made nine starts and still had a high ERA of 5.11, but made huge strides in the strikeout department, bumping his rate up to 24.2%.

2021 was a tale of two seasons for Kikuchi, as the first half his campaign was excellent. At the start of July, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about Kikuchi’s season around the midway point, when Kikuchi had made 15 starts and was sitting on an ERA of 3.18, strikeout rate of 25.4%, walk rate of 8.5% and ground-ball rate of 53.8%. But things went completely in the opposite direction in the second half of the season, as Kikuchi threw 63 2/3 innings from that point on, with a 6.22 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 41.7% ground-ball rate.

As part of the unusual structure of Kikuchi’s contract, at the end of the season, the Mariners then had to decide whether or not to execute a series of four one-year options valued at $16.5MM each, effectively a four-year, $66MM extension that would cover the 2022-25 seasons. After they declined, then Kikuchi could have selected a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022. Though it seemed there was a chance he would accept that deal after his poor performance down the stretch, he ultimately declined and tested the free agent market. That has now proven to be a wise decision on his part, as he has earned himself a new contract at that exact rate but three times as long.

The Blue Jays were evidently encouraged enough by Kikuchi’s strengths to overlook his weaknesses, much like they were with Robbie Ray and Steven Matz. Although those two pitchers had serious flaws on their respective resumes, they both went on to have excellent campaigns with the Jays in 2021, with Ray earning the American League Cy Young award. Although Ray and Matz will both be wearing new uniforms this year, Kikuchi is still going to be joining a strong rotation. The club also added Kevin Gausman prior to the lockout, joining Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah. That is likely to be the club’s front five, but they also have Ross Stripling on hand, who could function either as a starter or long-man out of the bullpen. Nate Pearson could potentially join the rotation at some point, though he has durability concerns after throwing just 18 innings in 2020 and just 45 2/3 in 2021.

After the lockout, the 2022 season is going to feature a condensed Spring Training and a regular season with added double-headers to make up for the delayed start to the campaign. Those factors, combined with the dwindling options in the free agent market, led the Jays to take a risk by bolstering their depth with a pitcher who has had flashes of excellence but also definite concerns.

As for the structure of the deal, it’s worth pointing out that the Blue Jays also front-loaded their contract with George Springer. This seems to be a way of taking advantage of the fact that most of the club’s core players are still working their way through arbitration and will only get increasingly expensive in the coming years. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is arbitration eligible for the first time this year as a Super Two player. Teoscar Hernandez will be playing his second of three arbitration seasons in 2022. Bo Bichette and Jordan Romano won’t be arbitration eligible until next year. By paying Springer and Kikuchi more now, the club will have a little bit extra wiggle room to weather the increasing salaries of those players in the coming seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Free Agent Notes: Rodon, Kikuchi, Correa, Soler

By Sean Bavazzano | March 10, 2022 at 8:47pm CDT

News of the finally-ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement is dominating headlines, with good reason, but some free agent leads had quietly emerged during the final hours of CBA negotiations. Notably, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees had requested and received medicals for free agent pitchers Carlos Rodon and Yusei Kikuchi prior to the lockout. Heyman notes that the Yankees have received the medicals of free agent shortstop Carlos Correa as well, though disclaims that the team already has “two good shortstop prospects”, referring to touted youngsters Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.

It has been speculated for some time that the Yankees minor league depth may impede their run at baseball’s top free agent, but their interest in Rodon and Kikuchi appears more straightforward. Despite possessing a high-upside stable of arms behind Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery, the Bronx rotation has no shortage of risk baked into it. Signing either Rodon or Kikuchi would add a similar high-risk, high-reward pitcher to the mix however, as these free agent targets dealt with injury and ineffectiveness down the stretch, respectively. Still, with a much higher luxury tax threshold to work with clubs like the Yankees are further incentivized to sign as many playoff-caliber arms as they can to see who sticks.

Some more free agent leads to usher in the post-lockout world…

Piggybacking off of Heyman’s tweet, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reports that the Twins have received medicals on Rodon and Kikuchi as well. Per Wolfson, the Twins are still searching for “multiple arms, starters and relievers” which should come as little surprise to fans who have followed Minnesota’s offseason to date. A Rodon signing would likely represent an uncharacteristically large splash for the Twins, though it should be noted they’ve shown interest in high-risk pitchers in the past, to say nothing of their interest in Rodon last offseason.
Another free agent generating buzz is Jorge Soler, who Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports has received interest from more than six clubs. Now that the universal DH has been implemented Feinsand speculates that Soler will see his list of suitors grow. That theory certainly checks out on paper, as Soler has sported a useful 117 OPS+ since 2019, though his glovework during that same stretch has been decidedly below average.

Latest On Mets’ Post-Lockout Plans

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2022 at 11:23am CDT

The Mets have already had one of the most active offseasons of any team, signing Max Scherzer to a record-setting contract and inking a trio of bats — Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar — to multi-year deals. The combined outlay on that quartet of additions was $254.5MM, pushing the team’s payroll to a projected $263MM (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez).

SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Mets are likely to target more rotation help — listing Yusei Kikuchi as one candidate — but have likely completed most of the heavy lifting on the position-player side of the roster. Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo tweets today that pitching is indeed expected to be the team’s priority, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the team isn’t completely closed off to bringing in another impact hitter. A payroll approaching $300MM isn’t out of the question in Queens, Heyman notes.

A pitching addition would be far more straightforward than signing another bat. The quartet of Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker is immensely talented but also laden with injury risk. Fifth starter candidates David Peterson and Tylor Megill are solid enough options, but as currently constructed, the Mets would be one injury away from needing to lean on both (and two away from having to tap into a shaky group of Triple-A options).

Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw stand out as two of the most prominent starters who have yet to sign, though Martino noted last week when linking the Mets to Kikuchi that they did not have any contact with Kershaw’s camp prior to the lockout. There are, of course, myriad trade scenarios to consider as well. The A’s (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt) and Reds (Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo) have starters who could conceivably change hands. The Padres have a wealth of young arms if the Mets are simply looking to add some depth, as they did last year when acquiring the now-injured Joey Lucchesi from San Diego.

On the pitching side of the coin, things are far muddier for the Mets — due in no small part to that aforementioned pre-lockout spending spree. The advent of a universal designated hitter might help to alleviate any logjams, but Mets already have crowded outfield and infield pictures alike. Marte, Canha Brandon Nimmo figure to get the bulk of the work in the outfield, while the infield mix will feature Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano, Francisco Lindor, Escobar and Jeff McNeil. Beyond that group of nine, the Mets have both J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith as capable corner options in the infield/outfield mix.

There’s already talk that the Amazins will be open to moving McNeil and/or Smith once the lockout lifts, which would make some sense given the lack of regular at-bats available. McNeil, Smith and Davis (more on him here) seem to be the likeliest change-of-scenery candidates, and moving multiple names from that group could pave the way for another addition.

With such a crowded roster already in place, there isn’t necessarily one glaring position the Mets need to feel compelled to shop. If the team is comfortable with Cano and Luis Guillorme logging the bulk of the work at second base, for instance, that’d free up the ability to trade McNeil and perhaps add an impact bat who could primarily serve as a DH (e.g. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Nelson Cruz). The Mets could also play Escobar at second base in that scenario and pursue help at the hot corner. Frankly, with so many players who have experience at multiple positions, Mets fans could dream on innumerable speculative scenarios. Martino has even suggested that despite having signed multiple outfielders, a Mets pursuit of Seiya Suzuki cannot be expressly ruled out.

Today’s reports don’t necessarily indicate anything that contradicts prior reporting but rather serve to reinforce the idea that the Mets aren’t likely to rest on their laurels after an active November/December. Pitching still seems likeliest to be the focus of their efforts, but the potential trades of some combination of McNeil, Smith and Davis could leave the team with the flexibility to add a bat of note — particularly if one of the prominent sluggers on the market is struggling to find a deal to his liking. Owner Steve Cohen certainly has the financial chops to swoop in and opportunistically sign such a free agent to a pillow deal, at the very least.

Blue Jays Ready To Spend After Lockout

By Sean Bavazzano | December 2, 2021 at 11:15pm CDT

A recent report from Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith gives Toronto fans something to look forward to after MLB’s lockout draws to a close. In addition to having trade discussions prior to the league’s halt on transactions, the Jays reportedly also have money to spend on additional free agents. Nicholson-Smith identifies acquiring an infielder and additional pitching as remaining needs for the club.

It was already expected that the Blue Jays would raise their payroll coming off a highly encouraging 2021 season, but the offseason to date has offered mixed signals about how high the payroll can stretch. Despite handing out a big dollar contract to Kevin Gausman (and a smaller dollar contract to Yimi Garcia) the organization has already seen its three top free agents sign for rich contracts elsewhere.

The Jays ended the 2021 season with $154MM in payroll obligations, per Cot’s Contracts. Including arbitration projections, RosterResource currently places the Toronto payroll, for luxury tax purposes, at $161MM. Nicholson-Smith’s report, though, indicates that the $161MM mark can continue to be pushed further.

It’s also worth noting that the Jays most likely trade chips coming into the offseason were thought to be of the catcher variety. Numerous teams have now picked the catcher market clean, with the Yankees and perhaps the Guardians as the only remaining contenders with questions at the position. An intra-division trade seems unlikely and the Blue Jays certainly have non-catcher prospect capital to deal from, but a lack of demand for one of Toronto’s most abundant resources may drive them to upgrade via free agency.

Fortunately for the 91-win team, the free agent market still has options for a front office looking to upgrade its infield. Kris Bryant and, if he’s open to a position change, Trevor Story can be had at the right price to cover third base. If Toronto is aiming for a more modest expenditure, they can also target the lefty-batting Kyle Seager or reunite with switch-hitting Jonathan Villar to compliment Santiago Espinal at the hot corner. These latter two options would serve as insurance in case Espinal is unable to build on his strong 2021 performance or Cavan Biggio fails to bounce back.

The pitching market is less flush with options but continues to carry upside at various price points. Carlos Rodon and Kenley Jansen represent two players who, for a premium, can help anchor a rotation and bullpen, respectively. Looking into Danny Duffy or old friend Ryan Tepera would serve a similar function for a lower cost, should the Jays prefer to splash their funds around more evenly.

Of course, just yesterday it was reported that Toronto expressed interest in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Heyman). For reference on how much the lefty may cost, MLBTR predicted a two-year $20MM contract for the starting pitcher. Yesterday’s report portrayed a competitive market for the lefty, however, with multiple three-year offers potentially shifting the projected amount it may take to sign Kikuchi. Regardless of who baseball’s best team north of the border pursues, it’s clear they will be active when they’re next able.

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