Yu Darvish

Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 20, which may prove to be his final outing of the season. Darvish, who has been on the shelf for three months because of triceps and elbow injuries, left his Single-A rehab start on Sunday after throwing just one inning, Matthew Martell of MLB.com was among those to report. Darvish came out for the second inning, but he “was seen wincing” during his warmup, Martell writes, before indicating to the dugout that he needed to exit.

While Darvish had been making progress in recent weeks, this is now the second setback the 32-year-old has suffered since June 28, when he experienced pain during a bullpen session. Darvish’s departure Sunday came as a result of the same discomfort as his previous setback, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets, adding that his next step is to go for an MRI.

Darvish is still holding out hope for a return in 2018, per Gonzales, but given the nature of his injury and the lack of time remaining in the campaign, that may not be realistic. If Darvish’s season is indeed over, it’ll go down as a disastrous year for someone who was widely regarded as the majors’ top free agent last winter. The Cubs signed the former Ranger and Dodger to a six-year, $126MM guarantee expecting him to continue serving as a front-line starter, but he has instead tossed just 40 innings in eight starts this season and posted a personal-worst ERA (4.95), FIP (4.86), xFIP (4.23) and walk rate (4.73 per nine).

Despite Darvish’s lack of contributions, the Cubs still lead the NL Central by four games over the archrival Cardinals, though it has been a less-than-ideal year in general for Chicago’s starting staff. Like Darvish, fellow established starters Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana have failed to produce great results, with ERAs ranging from 3.72 to 4.46 and a combined fWAR of 2.8 among the three of them. However, they’ve been downright ace-like compared to Tyler Chatwood, another of the Cubs’ disappointing free-agent signings from last winter.

Chatwood, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $38MM contract, owns a 5.22 ERA/5.56 FIP with a ghastly 8.23 walks per nine over 101 2/3 innings. The Cubs pulled him from their rotation a few weeks ago, only to start him again Saturday in what ended up as a two-inning, three-run, three-walk performance during a loss to Pittsburgh. Afterward, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription required) wrote that it’s tough to imagine Chatwood “throwing another meaningful pitch this season.” But whether that’ll be the case remains to be seen, especially considering the injuries to Darvish and effective swingman Mike Montgomery – who went to the disabled list Friday with shoulder inflammation.

For now, the saving grace of the Cubs’ rotation looks to be lefty Cole Hamels, whom they acquired in a trade with the Rangers prior to last month’s non-waiver deadline. Hamels, a longtime front-end starter, was mediocre for Texas this season, but he has been utterly brilliant as a Cub. Across four starts, the 34-year-old has logged an incredible .72 ERA with a 2.40 FIP, 8.28 K/9, 2.16 BB/9 and a 59 percent groundball rate.

Considering the shaky state of their rotation and their surmountable lead on a playoff spot, it’s possible the Cubs will look for more help on the trade market in the coming weeks. It would be difficult to make an impactful move, though, particularly with the NL playoff race being a crowded one and the Cubs behind several postseason hopefuls (including three division rivals) in the waiver pecking order.

[RELATED: How August Trades Work]

Although Cubs president Theo Epstein suggested last month that the team can’t rely on the injured Yu Darvish to finish 2018 on a high note, it appears the right-hander will factor in for Chicago in the coming months as it pursues another World Series title. Darvish, who has been out for over two months with triceps and elbow issues, threw a 55-pitch side session Saturday and then took an optimistic tone when speaking with Bruce Levine of 670 The Score and other reporters.

“Yeah, certainly [this is the best I’ve felt]. I think all my pitches, velocity-wise were up there at the highest and then I was able to follow through with my arm motion,” Darvish said through an interpreter.

Darvish went on to reveal that he dealt with “pain and discomfort” until “about 10 days ago,” when he “switched from treating the elbow to the spine,” continuing: “That triggered a more positive flow. Everything in this whole process is better from the beginning until the end.”

As Levine notes, Darvish wasn’t referring to a new injury to his back or spine. Rather, Levine writes that the hurler “was talking about using more of his whole body in his delivery.”

Now, barring a setback, Darvish could be within three or four days from throwing a simulated game, per Levine. It’s unclear how long it would take Darvish to return to the Cubs thereafter, though it’s not a slam dunk that he will. After all, Darvish already seemed to be on the comeback trail several weeks ago, only to suffer a setback in late June. The 31-year-old hasn’t taken the ball for the Cubs since May 20, when he made one of his best starts with the team. During that game, a win over the Reds, Darvish logged six innings of one-run, two-hit ball, struck out seven and issued three walks.

Starts like the one Darvish posted against the Reds have been atypical this season for him, which wasn’t what he or the Cubs expected when the two sides agreed to a six-year, $126MM guarantee in February. At that point, Darvish was an established star who had stood out with the Rangers and Dodgers. But in his first action with the Cubs, Darvish has endured two DL stints (including one for the flu) and posted a career-worst ERA/FIP/xFIP (4.95/4.87/4.24) over 40 innings and eight starts. He has also issued a personal-high 4.73 walks per nine, somewhat offsetting a typically outstanding strikeout rate (11.03 K/9).

Thanks in part to Darvish’s lack of availability so far, the Cubs made an attempt to bolster their rotation prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline by acquiring one of his former Rangers teammates, left-hander Cole Hamels. Like Darvish, Hamels hasn’t been anywhere close to his best this season. However, he did show well in his Cubs debut in a win over the division-rival Pirates this past Wednesday.

Including Hamels’ victory, the Cubs have registered a 64-46 record, giving the back-to-back NL Central champions a 1 1/2-game lead over the Brewers in the division. Some of the Cubs’ success has come on account of lefty swingman Mike Montgomery, who has offered respectable production in Darvish’s absence and relegated another struggling offseason signing, righty Tyler Chatwood, to a bullpen role. Should Darvish return, he’d presumably join Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and Hamels in the Cubs’ rotation, which means Montgomery would work in relief if the club sticks with a five-man starting staff.

The Cubs were hopeful they’d be getting right-hander Yu Darvish back in the near future, but his return to the active roster will now be further delayed, it seems. Manager Joe Maddon told reporters (Twitter link via the Sun Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer) that Darvish’s latest bullpen session “did not go well,” adding that the righty will be reevaluated after he “felt pain on extension.” ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds that the pain Darvish felt was beyond the normal soreness that might be expected when working back from an injury.

It’s been a month since the Cubs placed Darvish on the disabled list due to discomfort in his right biceps, and it doesn’t seem like the organization is sure exactly when he’ll be cleared to return to the rotation. Darvish will clearly need to ramp up on some form of rehab assignment before returning, and speculatively speaking, today’s setback makes it seem unlikely that he’ll be able to do so before the All-Star break.

Left-hander Mike Montgomery has stepped up nicely in Darvish’s place, working to a pristine 2.02 ERA in 35 1/3 innings across six starts since joining the rotation. While he’s not likely to continue at that pace, of course — fielding-independent metrics peg him in the upper-3.00s or low-4.00s in that time due largely to a .208 BABIP and an unsustainable 83.7 percent strand rate — Montgomery has certainly done enough to make the Cubs think hard about giving him a longer look in the rotation.

General manager Jed Hoyer spoke on that very subject earlier today on 670 The Score in Chicago, stating that Montgomery has “earned” an opportunity in the rotation with his high level of performance. Just how the Cubs will navigate that arrangement remains to be seen. Tyler Chatwood’s control has been an issue all season, and righty Kyle Hendricks has struggled badly in the month of June, posting a 7.03 ERA over five starts. If both Chatwood and Hendricks turn things around, and Darvish ultimately returns to good health, it’s plausible that Chicago could utilize six starters through the season’s second half. If not, perhaps Montgomery will get a longer-term look over one of the struggling arms currently in the rotation.

Of course, a hypothetical scenario in which the Cubs have six healthy and effective rotation options is a long ways from reality at this point, and the coming days will serve to inform as to just how plausible that scenario is. Said Maddon of the Darvish setback (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney): “Over the next couple days, we’ll try to figure out the next course of action. He’s so important to us and our success. We just got to try to figure it out for him and for us. He knows he’s got our support.”