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West Notes: Astros, Rodgers, Padres

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The Astros have seen a great deal of upheaval in their rotation throughout the season, as established hurlers like Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Lance McCullers Jr. have spent much of the season on the injured list while up and comers like Hunter Brown and J.P. France have taken up roles in the rotation. In the midst of all that turmoil, left-hander Framber Valdez and right-hander Cristian Javier have stood as fixtures at the top of Houston’s rotation.

That figures to change in the coming days, however, as the club has scratched Valdez from his planned start against the Rangers tomorrow. Manager Dusty Baker indicated to reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that Valdez had been battling with a sprained ankle since June 20 against the Mets, and the injury worsened during his last start against the Cardinals. Right-hander Shawn Dubin figures to take the ball in Valdez’s stead tomorrow, though his 10.80 ERA in five innings this season doesn’t exactly measure up to Valdez’s Cy Young-caliber performance this season.

Per Kawahara, Baker noted that Javier is still expected to make his start on Monday “as of right now” despite the fact that the right-hander is “scuffling a bit,” as indicated by his uncharacteristically lackluster 5.79 ERA in June. Chandler Rome and Eno Sarris of The Athletic suggest the Astros could push Javier’s next start back by calling up right-hander Brandon Bielak, who was scratched from his start at the Triple-A level today.

More from around MLB’s West divisions:

  • The Rockies may welcome back second baseman Brendan Rodgers from surgery before the 2023 campaign comes to an end. Rodgers suffered a torn labrum during spring training that ultimately required surgery, but the 26-year-old infielder has begun to work his way back to the field, per Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Rodgers took live batting practice for the first time today, ran the bases and took infield practice. Rodgers will report to Arizona for extended spring training after the All Star break, and manager Bud Black indicated to reporters (including Saunders) that Rodgers could return to the Rockies in August or September. That’s fantastic news for the Rockies, who have relied primarily on Harold Castro and Coco Montes at the keystone in Rodgers’ absence.
  • The Padres will be without right-hander Yu Darvish tomorrow, as the veteran hurler was scratched from his start due to a bout of the flu. Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds that, per manager Bob Melvin, he may not be able to pitch Monday either. Who will start in Darvish’s stead tomorrow is currently unclear, though the club did recall right-hander Pedro Avila earlier today. Avila has made 13 starts at the Triple-A level this season, posting an 8.49 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work.

Japanese-Born MLB Player Round Up

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Many star players from NPB have made their way to MLB to take on a new challenge.

Some of them became household names like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Some were consistent and solid players for a long period like Hiroki Kuroda and Koji Uehara. Some failed to meet the hype and lofty expectations like Kei Igawa and Kazuo Matsui. Some became fan favorites like Munenori Kawasaki.

The 2021 AL MVP and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani headlines the current batch of Japanese big-league players, and rightfully so. These players are a fascinating group that features exciting rookies, experienced veterans, and players looking to make their mark in MLB. Their performances go a long way in promoting the globalization of the sport but also provide fans, scouts, and front offices a better baseline for evaluating future talent from NPB.

How are their respective seasons going? Let’s break it down.

(All stats as of 6/11/2023)

Shohei Ohtani

Big surprise, Ohtani is once again among the frontrunners in the AL MVP race with his one-of-a-kind value as a two-way player. At the plate, he is hitting .291/.362/.593 with 50 RBI and an AL-leading 20 homers.

He had a hot start on the mound to start the season, with a 0.64 ERA and a .093 opponent batting average in his first five starts. Since his last start in April against the A’s, Ohtani has really struggled with the long ball. All 11 homers allowed on the season have come since that start.

On the season, Ohtani has a 3.32 ERA in 13 starts, with a 33.3 K% in 76 innings pitched. He has been plagued by shaky control in some starts, and his walk rate is up to 11.1% compared to 6.7% last season.

You can find Ohtani updates, including reports of every start, endorsement deals, and hot stove news on his player page on MLBTR, or shoheiohtanirumors.com.

Kodai Senga

The Mets signed the 30-year-old right-hander to a five-year, $75MM deal last December. Senga was immediately thrown into the fire in the early weeks of the season as the anchor of a depleted Mets rotation that was impacted by injuries to Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco and Max Scherzer’s suspension.

So far, Senga has answered the call and shown the talent that made him one of the most coveted starting pitchers in the 2022 offseason. Senga has a 3.34 ERA in 12 starts and 64 ⅔ innings pitched this season. He had a 4.15 ERA in his first five starts, but he has maintained a 2.79 ERA in his last seven. He is striking out hitters at a strong 28.3% rate, but walking hitters at a 14.3% clip.

Senga’s notorious ‘Ghost Fork’ splitter, which made him a household name in Japan, is no fluke. Hitters are only hitting .108 against the forkball and whiffing at a whopping 59.8% rate, one of the highest in MLB.

The next step in Senga’s transition to MLB is building consistency in control that will allow him to be more efficient and pitch deeper into games. In his final season in NPB, Senga walked 8.6% of hitters, so it’s certainly possible.

Masataka Yoshida

The 29-year-old outfielder signed a five-year, $90MM deal with the Red Sox after seven highly productive seasons in Japan for the Orix Buffaloes. The hefty price tag surprised many, given the questions of his slight frame at 5’8″ and power numbers in NPB traditionally not translating well to the big leagues. The ‘Macho Man’ has rewarded the organization’s faith with his patient and disciplined approach, bat-to-ball skills, and sharp swing. Yoshida is now one of the frontrunners in the AL Rookie of the Year race with his borderline All-Star-level production at the plate.

Yoshida is hitting .300/.375/.467 with seven homers, 33 RBI, and a 132 wRC+. After overcoming a nightmarish start (.189/.317/.264 in first 53 at-bats) to his MLB career, he’s been one of the most consistent bats for the Red Sox. Yoshida joined Ichiro as one of only two players this century to have reached base 85+ times and struck out 25 or fewer times in their first 50 career games.

He turned a corner after working with both Red Sox and Orix Buffaloes coaches and making appropriate adjustments, including lowering his hands. He continues to be proactive with his adjustments. After a rare three-strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks, the Sox coaching staff tweaked his approach and Yoshida responded with a .480/.581/.760 line in the next seven games.

Defensively, there is room for improvement for the outfielder. The Statcast metrics are not favorable, as he ranks in the tenth percentile and 12th percentile in outs above average and outfielder jump, respectively. He should be able to make marginal improvements in that area as he continues to familiarize himself with the Green Monster and the unique outfield at Fenway Park. Could he be making his way to Seattle for the All-Star game in July? We shall see. 

Seiya Suzuki

The 28-year-old outfielder is in the second year of his five-year, $85MM deal with the Cubs.  He was limited to 110 games in his first season by injury, hitting .262/.336/.433 along with 14 homers and 46 RBI. 

After a slow start in April where he hit .254/.333/.373 and just one home run, Suzuki had an excellent month in May, hitting .319/.417/.560 and five homers. On the season, Suzuki is hitting .278/.367/.450 with six homers, 19 RBI, and 124 wRC+ in 50 games. 

So far in his big league career, Suzuki has shown fans glimpses of the five-tool skill set that made him an appealing player in the 2021 offseason but has yet to have his breakout moment.

He has shown excellent plate discipline, walking at a 12.1% rate, and ranks in the 92nd percentile on Statcast chase rate. Despite his plate discipline, Suzuki strikes out quite often, with a 26.1 K%. Suzuki seems to struggle against pitches with movement, hitting just .216 against sinkers and .176 against cutters. Four-seamers with “clean” spin are traditionally more valued over moving pitches in Japan, so it is common for Japanese hitters to struggle with movement since they lack reps. 

Suzuki has been as advertised on the defensive end, recording two outs above average, thanks to a 98th-percentile outfielder jump and 92nd-percentile arm strength. 

Yu Darvish

The right-hander signed a five-year, $90MM contract extension in February, keeping him on the team through 2028. Darvish had a self-proclaimed best season of his career in 2022, tossing 194 2/3 innings with a 3.10 ERA, 25.6 K%, and 4.8 BB%.

He hasn’t been at his absolute best in 2023, with a 4.30 ERA, 26.3 K%, 7.5 BB% in 69 innings, but is still putting up above-average peripheral numbers on Statcast and still featuring a unique eight-pitch mix. If you remove his May 28th start against the Yankees where he got knocked around for seven runs in 2 ⅔ innings, his ERA would be 3.53. 

He reached the 100 wins mark in his last start against the Rockies on June 9, joining Hideo Nomo as the only Japanese MLB pitchers to reach that mark.

Yusei Kikuchi

In his second season as a Blue Jay, Kikuchi is still navigating his way to be a consistently productive starter. The left-hander had his worst season in the majors since his rookie season, largely due to poor control and a questionable pitch mix. 

Coming into 2023, Kikuchi made subtle changes in his delivery and mechanics, while sporting a new beard and swagger. He was off to a solid start, with a 3.00 ERA in April, but had a tough May where he gave up nine home runs and had a 5.83 ERA. On the season, Kikuchi has a 4.34 ERA, 22.7 K%, and 7.4 BB% in 66 ⅓ innings, while giving up an MLB-worst 18 home runs. 

The left-hander is throwing harder than he ever has, with average fastball velocity up to 95.3 mph compared to 92.5 mph his first year in MLB. It hasn’t necessarily translated to a high-quality pitch, however. While Kikuchi is getting whiffs at a 29.7% rate with his fastball, hitters are still getting good contact and hitting .315 against it. 

Although Kikuchi has improved his walk rate by five percentage points from last season, his bad starts are still marked by control issues and giving up the long ball while working behind in the count. The Blue Jays will need every solid performance they can get from Kikuchi in a competitive AL East, especially with Alek Manoah being optioned to the Florida Complex League. 

Kenta Maeda

The 35-year-old Twins right-hander is attempting a full comeback from Tommy John surgery in 2021. The veteran has faced several setbacks in his recovery. He took a 111.6 mph liner off his left foot against the Red Sox on April 20. In his next start against the Yankees, Maeda gave up a career-worst 10 runs in three innings. He was then placed on the IL with a strained triceps. 

Maeda completed his third rehab start for Triple-A St. Paul on June 10. He tossed four shutout innings and struck out five, and will be returning to the big league team in the coming weeks. “The (velocity) was good, the splitter was good, the slider was good. Everything was good,” said St. Paul manager Toby Gardenhire (link via Dean Spiros of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press).

Shintaro Fujinami

The Athletics signed Fujinami to a one-year, $3MM deal in January, with the A’s front office rolling the dice on Fujinami’s 100 mph fastball and potential plus strikeout stuff, despite control issues.

He opened the season in the rotation but was quickly moved to the bullpen at the end of April after allowing 24 runs in just 15 innings and walking 12 batters. It has been more of the same for the 29-year-old right-hander since moving to the bullpen, with a 11.12 ERA on the season while walking 17% of hitters.

It’s been a struggle for Fujinami to throw strikes to say the least. His 29 total walks is the most in MLB for pitchers under 40 innings thrown. When he does find the strike zone, the 6’6 righty is getting shelled. He has a hard hit percentage of 49%, which ranks in the seventh percentile.

Fujinami has dug himself a deep hole in terms of establishing himself as a big league pitcher, but he’s continuing to get opportunities to prove himself on an A’s pitching staff with minimal depth.

List Of Players On Track For 10-And-5 Rights

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In baseball parlance, players are often said to have “10-and-5 rights” or the player might be described as a “10-and-5 guy.” Any player who has 10 or more years of service time and has been with his current club for five or more consecutive years gets veto power over any trade involving them. This essentially functions the same as a no-trade clause, which players can negotiate into their contracts. But with 10-and-5 rights, the right is gained automatically once the conditions are met. There is often overlap, as players that have no-trade clauses will eventually earn 10-and-5 rights as well, which makes it a moot point in those cases.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

Padres Remain Narrowly Below $273MM Third CBT Threshold After Wacha Deal

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The Padres finalized their agreement with starter Michael Wacha this morning. That pact contained options from both the team and player perspective designed to meet the right-hander’s asking price while keeping the deal’s average annual value down for luxury tax purposes. It’s officially a four-year, $26MM guarantee, leading to a $6.5MM CBT hit.

That contract structure brings the Padres’ estimated luxury tax number around $272.2MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s about $800K shy of the $273MM mark that delineates the third threshold of tax penalization. Public payroll figures are estimates, though Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirm with team officials the club remains narrowly below the $273MM figure. That’s no coincidence, of course, with the Padres’ front office intentionally structuring some recent contracts to add to the roster while staying under that threshold.

At the start of the offseason, the Friars signed Nick Martinez to a deal that was similarly built with dual club/player options and technically came out to an approximate $8.667MM average annual value. More recently, San Diego’s extension negotiations with Yu Darvish were shaped by the team’s CBT situation. The Friars signed the All-Star righty to a five-year, $90MM extension covering the 2024-28 seasons last week. That paired with Darvish’s preexisting $18MM salary for the upcoming season to result in a matching tax hit. Before the extension, Darvish had counted for $21MM against the luxury tax (reflecting the AAV of his prior front-loaded six-year, $126MM agreement with the Cubs). The extension trimmed $3MM off the team’s tax bill this year, which freed up breathing room under the $273MM mark for the Wacha money.

In the process, San Diego made a commitment to Darvish running through his age-41 season. Investing for that long in a pitcher of his age certainly isn’t without risk, though it’s one the Friars preferred to a shorter-term deal that could’ve come with higher annual salaries. Lin and Rosenthal report that Darvish’s camp initially broached extension talks seeking a two-year, $60MM deal. Instead, the Padres made a longer commitment that guarantees the veteran hurler an extra $30MM altogether but comes at a much lower annual value.

According to the Athletic, San Diego also pursued a multi-year guarantee with player options for Johnny Cueto before he signed with the Marlins last month. San Diego was known to be involved in the Cueto market. Rather than accept a deal similar to the ones Martinez and Wacha ended up taking, Cueto took a one-year, $8.5MM pact with a 2024 club option from the Marlins.

Ultimately, the Padres’ maneuverings allow them to open Spring Training a hair south of the third tax threshold. A team’s luxury tax number is calculated at the end of the season, not during exhibition play or on Opening Day. Depending on how much room exists below $273MM, the Friars could certainly wind up above that number — either by making a midseason acquisition via trade or waivers or simply by selecting the contract of a non-roster Spring Training invitee whose deal contains a base salary above the league minimum (i.e. Pedro Severino).

For the time being, however, the organization has an obvious desire to keep south of the $273MM figure. Finishing a season above the third tax threshold results in a team’s top draft choice for the following year (2024, in this instance) being moved back ten spots. It also subjects a team to higher payments. The Friars are set to pay a 50% tax on any spending between $233MM and $253MM and a 62% fee on spending between $253MM and $273MM. They’d be taxed at a 90% rate on spending from $273MM to $293MM. The latter penalties are ones they’re clearly looking to avoid right now.

San Diego heads into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. Perhaps they’ll eventually go beyond the third threshold to maximize this roster’s chances of contending. As of now, they project for the third-highest CBT payroll in the majors. The Mets are running away from the rest of the league in spending, while the Yankees are reportedly just under the final tax threshold at $293MM and reluctant to surpass that figure.

Padres Sign Yu Darvish To Extension

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Feb. 10: Darvish will be paid a $6MM signing bonus and receive a $24MM salary in 2023, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll then be paid $15MM in 2024, $20MM in 2025, $15MM in 2026 and $14MM apiece in 2027-28. The contract also contains a full no-trade clause, and any Cy Young win in the contract’s first five seasons would boost his 2028 salary by $1MM.

Feb. 9: The Padres have locked up a second key member of the rotation for the long haul. San Diego announced a new six-year contract with right-hander Yu Darvish that’ll keep him in the fold through the 2028 season. The deal reportedly guarantees the Wasserman client $108MM overall. Since Darvish had already been under contract for $18MM for 2023, it’s five years and $90MM in new money.

It’s a remarkable contract when considering Darvish’s age, although at an average annual value of $18MM, Darvish hardly needs to perform like an ace in order to continue to justify the price tag. That’s the same AAV the Phillies committed to Taijuan Walker this offseason, for instance, and over the life of the new contract, the AAV for high-end pitching only figures to continue to increase. That said, any long-term deal running through a pitcher’s age-41 season — Darvish will turn 42 about six weeks before the contract ends — is obviously teeming with risk.

As things currently stand, however, Darvish remains among the game’s best starters. The right-hander’s age-35 campaign saw him pile up 194 2/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball with strikeout and walk rates (25.6% and 4.8%) that were far better than league average (particularly the walk rate). Darvish’s 95 mph average fastball was actually the second-best mark of his career, and those 194 2/3 fames were the second-highest single-season total he’s logged since signing with the Rangers back in 2012.

Darvish had Tommy John surgery back in March 2015, missing the entirety of that season and a substantial chunk of the 2016 campaign while recovering. His 2018 season with the Cubs, who originally signed him to the six-year $126MM deal on which he’d previously been playing, was limited to just 40 innings thanks to a triceps injury. Since that time, however, Darvish has been quite durable. He made all 12 of his starts during the shortened 2020 season, and in each of his past three 162-game seasons, he’s taken the hill at least 30 times.

The Padres had been set to lose both Darvish and Blake Snell to free agency following the 2023 season, with both heading into the final seasons of their respective contracts. Darvish, however, now looks likely to not only remain in San Diego but finish out his career as a member of the Padres under president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who played a major role in signing Darvish when he was in the Rangers’ front office. Darvish joins San Diego native Joe Musgrove, who inked a five-year extension last summer, as the bedrock of the Padres’ rotation for the foreseeable future.

Keeping Darvish under contract is of particular benefit with the final two spots on the starting staff already going to relievers who’ll be making the shift to full-time starters in 2023: Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. Both players have player options on their contracts for 2024, meaning if things go smoothly they’ll likely opt out of the contracts and test free agency on the heels of improved platform seasons. If the shift to starting roles don’t work out, then the Padres will obviously be seeking alternative options, be they in-house or external acquisitions. Either way, prior to the Darvish extension it was possible — if not downright likely — that San Diego would’ve entered the 2023-24 offseason in search of as many as four starting pitchers. That’s no longer the case.

Darvish carries extra importance from a long-term vantage point when considering the Padres’ dealings in recent years. Preller is among  the sport’s most aggressive executives on the trade market, and with the Friars in an all-out, win-at-all-costs blitz, they’ve shown little concern with dismantling their once-vaunted farm system as a means of bringing in Major League talent. Trades of names like MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddack, Cal Quantrill and Luis Patino have depleted the organization’s pitching pipeline, while the general attrition (injuries and/or poor performances) from the remaining prospects like Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon and Pedro Avila leave the system without much immediate help on the horizon.

Beyond the sheer need for long-term help in the rotation, there’s surely an element of financial creativity at play here. Darvish’s preexisting six-year, $126MM contract came with a $21MM luxury hit (based on the contract’s AAV). Since this new deal is being tacked onto the end of that old contract, it effectively becomes an 11-year, $216MM deal. That comes with a reduced luxury hit of $19.64MM. It’s not a major savings, but the Padres were right up against the third tier of luxury penalization, so any newly created breathing room is quite welcome. Once crossing into that third luxury tier, a team is penalized not only in the form of steeper tax rates but also by having their top pick in the next year’s draft dropped by 10 places.

The Darvish extension puts some distance between the team and that particularly undesirable slap on the wrist. It also makes things slightly easier for Preller and his staff if they hope to remain under that tax level but still want to create some wiggle room for in-season acquisitions on the trade market.

The deal is also heavily front-loaded, with Darvish’s 2023 salary jumping from $18MM to $30MM. That leaves $78MM to be distributed over the final five years. That’s of particular note given changes in the recent collective bargaining agreement, which stipulate that upon being traded, only the remainder of a player’s contract counts toward the new team’s luxury tax. Previously, the tax hit would remain the same. In other words, a potential trade of Darvish down the road will come with a considerably lighter luxury hit for an acquiring team by virtue of the contract’s front-loaded nature. Of course, with the full no-trade protection he’s been granted, that could very well end up a moot point.

If the $273MM tax barrier remains a hard stopping point for the Padres once the season’s underway, that’ll likely require the Padres to convince a trade partner to include some money or take on a contract in return. Nonetheless, this extra bit of space could prove useful in accommodating more complementary additions like bullpen help or added bench depth. Alternatively, it could provide necessary space to eventually select the contract of a non-roster veteran with a salary of modest note — someone like reliever Craig Stammen or catcher Pedro Severino, for instance.

As we saw with the Padres’ 11-year signing of Xander Bogaerts — and their reported overtures toward Aaron Judge and Trea Turner — the team is clearly comfortable paying a player into his early 40s if it means lowering the overall luxury bill. All of those offers, Bogaerts and Darvish included, featured annual rates comfortably shy of where the players might have otherwise landed on a more conventional structure. Darvish’s newly added $90MM in guarantees, for instance, could perhaps have been obtained over a three- or certainly a four-year deal had he opted to play out the final season of his contract and return to free agency. Instead, he’ll effectively take three- or four-year money and spread it out over a five-year extension of his contract in order to remain with a contending team and a setting where he’s clearly comfortable.

Those benefits, in the end, are generally secondary. The Padres clearly had a desire to extend Darvish, and likely agreed upon the requisite dollars before determining the length of the contract and, thereby, the extent to which they could tamp down their tax bill. The end result is that Darvish and Musgrove will continue to form a formidable one-two punch in the years to come. And while paying Darvish in his age-40 and age-41 seasons might prove an untenable outcome, it also perhaps creates some present-day savings in terms of luxury taxes that will make those final years a bit easier to stomach.

AJ Cassavell and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Darvish and the Padres had agreed to a six-year, $108MM contract. Feinsand reported it was a front-loaded deal that contained a $30MM salary for 2023.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Sandy Alcantara Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has won the National League Cy Young award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. It was a unanimous victory, with Alcantara receiving all 30 first place votes. He was followed in the voting by Max Fried of the Braves and Julio Urías of the Dodgers.

Alcantara has been the presumptive favorite for quite some time, and the unanimous voting serves as a particular testament to the caliber of season he put together. The right-hander easily lapped the field in innings, soaking up 228 2/3 frames that cleared second-place finisher Aaron Nola by 23 2/3. Alcantara and Nola were the only Senior Circuit pitchers to throw multiple complete games; Nola went the distance twice, while Alcantara did so six times. He also faced a league-leading 886 batters, with Nola’s 807 batters faced an extremely distant second.

That kind of throwback, workhorse mentality was part of what set Alcantara apart from the rest of the league, but he continued to perform brilliantly on a rate basis. Among NL starters with 100+ innings, he ranked fourth in ERA (2.28) and sixth in ground-ball percentage (53.4%). His 23.4% strikeout percentage was more good than elite, but he rarely issued free passes and kept the ball on the ground while consistently going deep into games.

Along the way, the 27-year-old earned the second All-Star nod of his career. Alcantara had posted an ERA between 3.00 and 4.00 in each of his first four seasons with the Fish to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. Miami inked him to a $56MM extension last offseason, a deal that extended their window of control through 2027. That seemed a strong move for general manager Kim Ng and her staff at the time, and it now stands as an absolute bargain with Alcantara cementing himself upon the game’s top handful of pitchers.

It’s the first Cy Young nod for the native of the Dominican Republic, who’d never previously appeared on an awards ballot. Fried and Urías each picked up some support for the second time. The Atlanta southpaw finished fifth in Cy Young balloting in 2020, while the L.A. hurler placed seventh last year. Both earned a top-three placement for the first time this year, with sub-2.50 ERA showings. Fried twirled 185 1/3 innings of 2.48 ball, while Urías led qualified starters with a 2.16 ERA.

Fried picked up 10 second-place votes, and Urías was the runner-up on seven ballots. Nola, Zac Gallen, Carlos Rodón, Corbin Burnes and Edwin Díaz were the other players to receive at least one second-place vote. Nola and Gallen placed fourth and fifth, respectively. Rodón, Burnes, Díaz, Yu Darvish, Kyle Wright, Logan Webb and Ryan Helsley were the other players to appear on a ballot.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Padres Interested In Extension Talks With Yu Darvish

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Yu Darvish is coming off his second quality season with the Padres, with his 2022 campaign representing a step beyond his solid 2021 numbers.  This season, Darvish posted a 3.10 ERA, an above-average 25.6% strikeout rate and an outstanding 4.8% walk rate over 194 2/3 innings, while continuing to post one of the best fastball spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.  Yesterday, the right-hander stepped up big in Game One of the NL Wild Card Series, allowing one run in seven innings in San Diego’s 7-1 win over the Mets.

Though Darvish turned 36 in August, the Padres have already seen enough to want to explore a contract extension with Darvish this offseason, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Darvish is entering the final year of his current deal — the six-year, $126MM free agent pact he signed with the Cubs prior to the 2018 season.

When triceps tendinitis limited Darvish to only 40 innings (of 4.95 ERA pitching) in 2018, there was already some concern in Wrigleyville that the signing could be a bust.  However, Darvish rebounded to post a 3.98 ERA over 178 2/3 innings in 2019, and his 2.01 ERA over 76 innings in the shortened 2020 season earned the righty a second-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting.  As the Cubs were entering a rebuild period, they traded Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini to the Padres for a five-player package and some significant salary relief.

Other than the hip and back problems that resulted in a pair of brief IL stints late in the 2021 season, Darvish has been pretty healthy since that abbreviated 2018 campaign.  Only 10 pitchers threw more than 194 2/3 frames in 2022, and that total was also the second-highest innings count of Darvish’s 10 Major League seasons.  Of course, Darvish’s career workload doesn’t just include MLB, as he tossed 1268 1/3 innings in Nippon Professional Baseball before coming to North America and tossing 1488 regular-season innings.

It’s probably safe to assume that the Padres aren’t looking for another long-term pact for Darvish, and Acee notes that Darvish hasn’t given any indication about how much longer he wishes to keep playing.  However, adding another season (or even two) may fit into the club’s interest if they’re confident Darvish can keep producing into his late 30’s.  Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, and Nick Martinez are free agents this winter, but the Padres kept one major arm off the market when they inked Joe Musgrove to a five-year, $100MM extension back in August.  Musgrove, Darvish, and Blake Snell project as San Diego’s top three starters heading into 2023, though Darvish and Snell are both only under contract through next season.

Extending Darvish would give the Padres a bit more rotation security going forward, even if a new deal covered only 2024 or 2025.  San Diego exceeded the luxury tax threshold in both 2021 and 2022, but quite a bit of money will be off the books after the 2023 season, which is presumably when a Darvish extension would begin.  If a new deal overwrote the final year of Darvish’s current contract, that could give the Padres some more immediate luxury tax breathing room for 2023.  Darvish is owed $18MM in 2023 but his tax number is $21MM, the average of $126MM divided over six seasons.

This Date In Transaction History: Cubs Sign Yu Darvish

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On February 13th, 2018 the Cubs officially announced a six-year, $126MM agreement with free agent Yu Darvish. After splitting the 2017 season between the Rangers and Dodgers, Darvish was the top free agent on MLBTR’s list of available players that winter. Little did we know at the time that Darvish would spent only half the length of that contract in a Cubs uniform.

At the time, Darvish seemed like a much-needed injection of frontline rotation talent for the Cubs. After falling to the Dodgers in the NLCS in their title defense season, swiping Darvish from the Dodgers had the potential to swing a potential rematch in seasons to come.

That rematch wouldn’t come to pass, however. Darvish would make just nine starts for the Cubs in the 2018 season. Though they won 95 games, Joe Maddon’s club stumbled into a wild card spot before losing the wild card game to the Rockies on a Tony Wolters RBI single in the 13th inning.

The timing was never quite right for Darvish and the Cubs. He was better in his second season in Chicago, but not good enough to change the fortunes of their fledgling contender. Darvish finished second for the NL Cy Young during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but they fell in the first round of the playoffs to the Marlins.

Though Darvish was incredible during that 2020 season (2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP over 76 innings), the Cubs chose to sell high on their one-time free agent prize, sending him to the Padres for a quartet of teenagers. The Cubs were largely criticized at the time of the deal, though the full impact of the move won’t be known for many years yet. There’s no doubt that Chicago needed an injection of youth for a system that had largely stagnated during their years of contention. Further, in terms of maximizing their assets, Darvish was their most valuable trade piece at the time.

And though Darvish’s arsenal is robust, and he’s among the strikeout leaders on a per batter basis year-by-year, his bottom line run prevention numbers don’t necessarily paint him as one of the best pitchers in the league.

He was certainly a touch disappointing in his first season with the Padres, posting just 1.4 rWAR/2.9 fWAR despite making 30 starts and tossing 166 1/3 innings. The 34-year-old wasn’t bad in 2021, but with a 4.22 ERA/3.90 FIP, Darvish looks more like a solid mid-rotation arm than a true frontline ace, even with an impressive 29.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate.

The fact is, outside of his tremendous 2020 season, Darvish has been closer to this 2021 self for most of his Major League career – at least since missing the 2015 season. Still, that makes for a valuable rotation arm that ought to play a valuable role for the Padres over the next two seasons, even in his age-35 and age-36 seasons.

At the same time, it’s hard to fault the Cubs now for selling when they did. MLBTR readers did not like the deal, with the most popular grades being a C and D at the time. But in retrospect, the Cubs were clearly more than a Darvish away from competing last season.

On the whole, even though they traded him halfway through the deal, the Cubs probably still feel pretty good about their decision to sign Darvish. On the field, he gave them 294 2/3 innings over three seasons with a 3.60 ERA/3.77 FIP, totaling 5.8 fWAR. Those aggregate numbers are solid, though they came in the shape of one subpar season, one stellar season, and one middle-of-the-road year in 2019.

Taking a more holistic approach, you can give Darvish credit for also netting the organization four prospects who may still provide a boost to Cubs teams down the road. As of right now, Fangraphs has the four prospects the Cubs got for Darvish ranked as their #3, #5, #37, and #48 ranked prospects in their system. Will those four prospects end up being more valuable than the final three years of Darvish’s free agent deal? That’s a question for a future date. In terms of the free agent deal that was signed four years ago today, the move didn’t turn out exactly the way the Cubs perhaps wanted, but they should count it as a win nonetheless.

Padres Activate Yu Darvish

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The Padres will activate Yu Darvish to start tonight’s ballgame, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (via Twitter).

Daniel Camarena has been optioned to Triple-A to create the roster space to add Darvish, the team announced. Camarena served up the game-winning two-run shot to AJ Pollock in the 16th inning of yesterday’s marathon contest. The 28-year-old southpaw has generated more buzz for his work at the plate this season, hitting a grand slam off Max Scherzer in his first career plate appearance. He had an at-bat in last night’s game as well, but he went down swinging.

For his part, Darvish has been out since August 13th with lower back tightness. He has a 3.70 ERA/3.71 FIP in 23 starts covering 131 1/3 innings with a typically strong 29.9 percent strikeout rate, 5.7 percent walk rate, and lower than usual 36.0 percent groundball rate.

The Padres have seen their pitching depth ravaged by injuries this season. If they’re going to stay in the hunt for the second wild card game, Darvish’s healthy return would seem a likely requirement. Chris Paddack could also be on his way back after a successful three-inning simulated game, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

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