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Yovani Gallardo

Rangers Make Qualifying Offer To Yovani Gallardo

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They waited until the last minute to pull the trigger, but the Rangers have officially announced that the club made a qualifying offer to righty Yovani Gallardo. Ultimately, GM Jon Daniels called it a “fairly easy” decision to make the one-year, $15.8MM offer.

The veteran hurler was acquired last winter from the Brewers in exchange for a trio of young players: infielder Luis Sardinas and righties Corey Knebel and Marcos Diplan. He delivered a solid season to Texas at a reasonable $14MM salary ($4MM of which was covered by Milwaukee).

Gallardo is hardly an overwhelming pitcher. His heater clocks in at a below-average velocity, and last year he generated less than six strikeouts per nine this season (while walking more than three batters per regulation game).

But he has provided a lot of solid innings, and that has plenty of value in today’s market. The 29-year-old is not exactly a sure thing to go over 200 frames annually — a feat that he’s accomplished twice, in 2011-12 — but he has made thirty or more starts in each of the last seven seasons.

While Gallardo has rarely been dominant, he does carry a lifetime 3.66 ERA. And he’s posted consecutive earned run averages of 3.51 and 3.42 over the last two seasons. ERA estimators have never quite supported those results — this year, for instance, he carried a 4.59 SIERA — but he’d still be a useful piece with some regression baked into expectations.

AL West Notes: Iwakuma, Mariners, Freese, Gallardo

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The Mariners are leaning toward a qualifying offer for right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, writes MLB.com’s Greg Johns, but no final decision has been made. There’s mutual interest between the Mariners and the 34-year-old Iwakuma, but Johns notes that Seattle must decide if it wants to risk Iwakuma accepting the $15.8MM one-year offer, which would add a significant commitment to a payroll that has already guaranteed $77MM worth of 2015 salary to five players. From my vantage point, Iwakuma can easily double the amount of the qualifying offer on the open market this winter and could max out on a three-year deal in the $39-45MM range, making a QO a reasonable decision. Even if Iwakuma’s market collapses a bit and he has to take a two-year pact, I’d imagine annual salaries in the $13-15MM range would still be in play.

Here’s more from the AL West…

  • ESPN’s Buster Olney hears that Mariners’ early offseason focus is on improving the club’s on-base percentage (Twitter link). Most of general manager Jerry Dipoto’s activity to address that deficiency will come via trade as opposed to free agency, Olney adds. That lines up with an Inbox column from Johns, in which he says he doesn’t foresee Dipoto making a big free agent splash. Rather, his expectation is that Dipoto will seek to add a veteran catcher, bullpen help, a center fielder and a rotation option primarily by being creative on the trade market.
  • Regarding the Mariners and whether or not they’ll dive into free agency, I’ll add this: Seattle has the top unprotected pick in next year’s draft at No. 11, so it’d be pretty surprising to see them sign any player who rejects a qualifying offer. One free agent target that strikes me as a nice fit in Seattle would be Denard Span, assuming he doesn’t receive a QO.
  • Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register examines whether or not the Angels will make a qualifying offer to David Freese. As Fletcher notes, Freese looks to be the lone regular on the free agent market at this time — unless some teams consider Daniel Murphy an option there — which could line him up for something like $30MM over three years. Offering Freese about $16MM is risky for the Halos, who are only about $26MM under the luxury tax threshold by Fletcher’s calculations. If the Angels make the offer, they’ll do so with the hope that Freese rejects. According to Fletcher, the front office is currently mulling the possibility, which is one that MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed at length on last week’s QO-themed edition of the MLBTR Podcast.
  • Sticking with the qualifying offer theme that has been largely present throughout this post, Jeff Wilsont of the Forst Worth Star-Telegram spoke to Yovani Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, about the possibility of the Rangers extending a qualifying offer to his client. “Deep down, I think they’re going to do it,” said Witt. “That’s the smart play by the Rangers.” Wilson examines the possibility of Gallardo being the first player to accept a qualifying offer, which, as Wilson points out, would mean that Gallardo receives a nice one-year deal to pitch in his home town and hit the open market in a move favorable position on next year’s thin crop of pitchers.

Poll: Should The Rangers Make Yovani Gallardo A Qualifying Offer

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If you aren’t associated with the Rangers in some way, chances are you haven’t wondered if starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo would merit a qualifying offer. Once a promising pitching prospect, Gallardo now features an unimpressive 90 mph fastball, 5.91 K/9, and 3.32 BB/9. In an age of power and pristine strikeout-to-walk ratios, Gallardo is easy to overlook. The Rangers reportedly plan to make the $15.8MM qualifying offer. But should they?

Statistically, there are a few angles to address. The 29-year-old has posted 2.0 to 2.6 fWAR in each of the last four seasons. That’s right around league average. It may feel off, but a relatively young, league average pitcher is generally worth around $12MM to $16MM a year on the free agent market. For example, Ervin Santana inked a four-year, $54MM deal with the Twins last offseason. Santana isn’t a perfect comp because he was coming off a 2.9 WAR season and has a flashier arsenal. He also had a much shakier track record.

Gallardo doesn’t eat innings like a top pitcher. In some ways, that’s both a positive and a negative. The Rangers were able to able to get the most out of him by removing him early. Only five of his 33 starts lasted more than six innings. Ten of his starts ran just five or fewer frames.

That usage put extra pressure on a shaky Rangers bullpen, but it also probably allowed him to post a solid 3.42 ERA in 184 innings. He had a 4.00 FIP based on his strikeout, walk, and home run rates. FanGraphs also tracks an ERA-based WAR called RA9-WAR. By that measure, Gallardo contributed over four wins to the Rangers’ season.

This brings to mind two important questions. Can Gallardo be easily managed by limiting the length of his starts? Evidence suggests he can, but the results are inconclusive. Additionally, how much does the extra strain on the bullpen detract from Gallardo’s value to his club? Obviously, that’s a very club dependent question. A team with a deep, talented bullpen might like using him in a short outing while clubs with less relief depth will prefer longer starts.

The evidence presented says that Gallardo is an unexciting, automatic qualifying offer candidate. However, there are signs that his stuff is on the decline. His strikeout rate has dropped in four straight seasons from 9.00 K/9 in 2012 to a middling 5.91 K/9 last year. His velocity is also down, and he may have experienced a lucky season with regard to his HR/FB rate. He continues to post a high ground ball rate, but he’s shown no signs of developing the excellent command that allows a Mark Buehrle or Brandon McCarthy to thrive.

Every year, a few players are hurt by the qualifying offer designation (refer back to Ervin Santana). Gallardo is exactly the kind of pitcher who could find it difficult to sign with a new club if he turns down the qualifying offer. He’s entering his age 30 season with a multi-year decline in stuff and peripherals. Despite health and consistent league average production, he doesn’t offer clubs much hope for upside.

Ultimately, I still think the worst case scenario for Gallardo is somewhere around a three-year, $28MM contract. Obviously, he could still sign for much more too. If the Rangers are happy to pay him $15.8MM on a one-year contract, then they have no cause for concern either way. But at some point, a player is going to bet on themselves by taking the higher AAV.

Rangers Notes: Staff, Lewis, Beltre, Napoli, Gallardo, Offseason

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The Rangers were one of the biggest surprises of the year. While the club was bounced from the playoffs in disappointing fashion, it nevertheless accomplished much more than expected and raised expectations heading into 2016.

Here’s the latest from Texas:

  • Rangers hitting coach Dave Magadan and bullpen coach Andy Hawkins will not be back, as MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports. The rest of the club’s staff has been invited to return to work under manager Jeff Banister. Magadan is looking to remain closer to his home in Florida, per the report, while Hawkins is aiming to move to another organization.
  • In other after-season business, also via Sullivan, the Rangers announced that righty Colby Lewis had a procedure to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. The soon-to-be free agent pitched through it for much of the year. It remains to be seen whether veteran third bagger Adrian Beltre will need surgery for a torn ligament in his thumb, an injury that he (rather remarkably) played with for some time.
  • Texas has interest in bringing back first baseman Mike Napoli, GM Jon Daniels said. The 33-year-old hit a blistering .295/.396/.513 down the stretch for Texas, and would make sense as a right-handed-hitting complement to the club’s left-heavy lineup. But it appears that Napoli may prefer to seek a more expansive role on the open market.
  • As expected, the Rangers intend to make a qualifying offer to righty Yovani Gallardo. If he doesn’t take the $15.8MM offer, Gallardo will hit the market heading into his age-30 season after throwing 376 2/3 innings of 3.46 ERA pitching over the last two campaigns. The draft compensation would create some drag, but his record of durability and effectiveness makes him an obvious target for clubs in need of reliable innings.
  • It’s back to business already for Daniels, who says that he believes the team “did a lot of our heavy lifting in July,” as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. That’s a reference to the club’s acquisition of Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman, of course, both of whom were added with the future in mind. That being said, Daniels made clear that Texas will be active. “There are some areas that I would expect that we’ll look to upgrade,” Daniels said. “I think we’ll have a lot of conversations with other clubs and kind of see where the market is. I don’t feel like there are any glaring holes if we are healthy.”　
  • Regarding starting pitching, Daniels said that the organization will “look to add some stability” over the winter. That could mean a return of Lewis or (perhaps less likely) Gallardo, but it seems quite possible that Texas will be on the market for a new addition.

Rangers Notes: Harrison, Daniels, Hamels, Gallardo

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Rangers officials personally informed Matt Harrison that he was going to be traded midway through the Rangers’ game on Wednesday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.  With rumors of the Cole Hamels trade swirling, GM Jon Daniels didn’t want an awkward repeat of the 2013 situation when longtime Ranger Ian Kinsler only found out he was dealt to Detroit via social media.  Harrison assumed the in-game meeting regarded Hamels, though Harrison thought he was being told that his next start was being pushed a day to accommodate the former Phillie.  Here’s some more from the Rangers…

  • Daniels discussed the Hamels trade and more during an appearance on The Front Office with Jim Duquette and Grant Paulsen on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM.  The Rangers first tried to acquire Hamels in 2012 before he signed his contract extension with the Phillies, and talks between the two sides became serious again both this last offseason and this July (Twitter link).
  • The Rangers gave up several prospects for Hamels, though Daniels said it was a necessary price given that the Phillies were taking on Harrison’s contract and also sending $9.5MM in cash to Texas.  “When you’re talking that significant discount financially we understood we had to put a little more talent in the deal,” Daniels said (Twitter link).
  • Daniels also talked about the decision to hold onto Yovani Gallardo (audio link), which was inspired by the Rangers’ desire to make a playoff run, no mandate from ownership to unload Gallardo’s salary and the general feeling that there wasn’t an offer on the table that really intrigued the Rangers.  “It didn’t make sense for us, we didn’t want to pull the rug from under the club,” Daniels said.  “I’d rather have him continue to pitch for us and get the draft pick [if Gallardo leaves in free agency] than get a B- or C-level deal.”  The number of other solid pitchers on the market may have been another reason why a Gallardo deal didn’t materialize, the general manager speculated.
  • In regards to Gallardo’s pending free agency, Daniels said the Rangers will save any negotiations until after the season.

Rangers May Hold Yovani Gallardo

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2:05pm: It doesn’t sound like the Rangers are getting any offers to their liking, as Heyman tweets that at this time, it appears that they may hold onto Gallardo.

10:17am: The Cubs and Blue Jays also remain in the mix for Gallardo, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Those three teams are his main suitors, Heyman says, noting that the possibility of the Rangers retaining Gallardo still remains.

10:02am: The Dodgers and Rangers are having “ongoing discussions” regarding right-hander Yovani Gallardo this morning, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link).

The 29-year-old Gallardo was an offseason acquisition by the Rangers, who acquired him from the Brewers in exchange for Luis Sardinas and Corey Knebel. He’s had a nice season overall with Texas, notching a 3.39 ERA 6.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent ground-ball rate. However, Gallardo’s recent performance hasn’t done the Rangers any favors in terms of trading him; he’s allowed five runs in three consecutive starts.

Gallardo’s strikeout numbers are way down from his 2009-11 peak, but his ground-ball rate is up, and his control numbers have sharpened as well. He’s earning $14MM this season in his final year of control before hitting the open market. Clearly, a trade would benefit his free agent stock, as he’d be ineligible for a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers have already added Mat Latos and Alex Wood to their rotation, though there have been indications that they’re still in the market for even more rotation help despite those trades.

Pitching Market Notes: Ross, Gallardo, Iwakuma, Indians, Chapman, Pirates

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The Padres are “progressing” on multiple deals, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, and Tyson Ross is a key piece among their trade chips. Rosenthal adds that trading him would be considered a concession on the 2015 season, and while that’s likely, it’s certainly possible that the Padres could acquire some MLB-ready talent to make it more even for 2015 purposes than if they went with an all-prospects package. The Padres could add some pieces as well, he notes.

Meanwhile Bob Nightengale of USA Today chimes in on Ross as well, tweeting that executives from other teams are “convinced” that Ross will be dealt. Nightengale says the Cubs continue to push for Ross. (Earlier today, ESPN’s Jayson Stark heard that Ross is Chicago’s top pitching target.)

Here’s more on the trade market for pitching help — starters and relievers alike:

  • The Cubs, Blue Jays and Dodgers are the most aggressive teams pursuing Yovani Gallardo of the Rangers at this time, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The Yankees and Giants also have some level of interest, he adds. Gallardo started tonight, and things went poorly; the Yankees knocked him around for five runs in six innings, and he struck out just one hitter.
  • Despite a record that is well below the .500 mark, the Mariners aren’t planning to make right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma available, tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. While other teams have apparently inquired, they’ve been informed that Mariners ownership prefers to keep him. Iwakuma’s value is down after a shaky, injury-filled season, though given his reasonable $7MM salary and track record, I’d imagine he’d draw no shortage of interest if put on the block.
  • Teams are still in touch with the Indians regarding their crop of young pitching talent, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. There’s nothing close at this time, but the Indians remain willing to engage in conversations. To this point, they’ve reportedly discussed Carlos Carrasco with other clubs, and one can imagine that Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer are of interest to other teams as well. Cleveland did bolster its impressive stockpile of young pitching today — albeit with a future-oriented move — acquiring Class-A lefty and former first-round pick Rob Kaminsky from the Cardinals for Brandon Moss.
  • The D-Backs reportedly have an offer on the table to the Reds for Aroldis Chapman, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic spoke to a pair of executives (Twitter link) about the asking price on Chapman, with one calling it “high” and the other using the term “ridiculous.”
  • Following today’s acquisition of Joakim Soria to strengthen his bullpen, Pirates GM Neal Huntington told reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that he doesn’t plan to acquire an additional starting pitcher prior to tomorrow’s non-waiver trade deadline (Twitter link).

Blue Jays, Rangers Talks On Gallardo Not Progressing

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10:19am: Sullivan now says that nothing has come of recent chatter (on Twitter). Gallardo is more of a “fallback” for the Jays, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

10:18am: The Blue Jays are interested in Rangers starter Yovani Gallardo, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets. He notes that there is a real possibility of a deal coming together.

As it shops the veteran righty, Texas is hopeful of finding a right-handed bat, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram adds (Twitter links). Notably, per Wilson, Gallardo would be willing to waive his no-trade protection to facilitate a deal to Toronto.

Gallardo is set to start tonight for the Rangers, so there could be some impetus towards getting something done in the near term. After adding Cole Hamels yesterday, Texas may be looking to recoup some value. But Wilson does note that the Rangers could hold on to the right-hander, with the idea of possibly making a late-season playoff run and getting value back from him through the qualifying offer system.

Dodgers Prioritizing Cole Hamels In Search For Pitching

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The Dodgers are prioritizing Cole Hamels in their search for rotation upgrades, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Los Angeles “wants to exhaust” the option of acquiring Hamels before moving onto a “Plan B” like Yovani Gallardo. Per Sherman, the Dodgers continue to insist that they will not part with top prospects Corey Seager and Julio Urias, however.

Refusal to move either Seager or Urias will certainly work against the Dodgers, who face steep competition in the market for Hamels. The Giants are said to be making a “strong push,” and the Astros are also pushing for the Philadelphia ace. The Rangers have been discussing prospects with the Phillies recently, and the Diamondbacks have emerged as somewhat of a surprise candidate in the Hamels sweepstakes as well. The Cubs are said to merely be “on the periphery” of the Hamels market.

The Phillies have asked that teams make their best offers for Hamels by tomorrow, per ESPN’s Jayson Stark, and his previously scheduled Thursday start has been pushed back to Friday — after the trade deadline — so as not to risk an injury and to potentially make him immediately available to start for an acquiring team. Over the weekend, Stark characterized the Dodgers as one of the favorites for Hamels.

Stark’s Latest: Giants, Hamels, Price, Orioles, Gallardo, Alvarez

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The latest deadline rumblings from Jayson Stark of ESPN.com…

  • The Giants are still searching for starting pitching, but they’re only looking at top-of-the-rotation arms to pair with Madison Bumgarner in a playoff rotation, Stark hears. San Francisco has checked in on both David Price and Cole Hamels, but they’re not considered a favorite to land Hamels from the Phillies, and there’s still no definitive sense that Price has been made available by the Tigers. Yesterday, Stark reported that the Dodgers and Rangers were emerging as the favorites in the Hamels market.
  • The Orioles are speaking with other clubs to get a feel for what kind of return they could get if they market Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Tommy Hunter and Bud Norris, Stark hears. However, rival clubs feel the O’s will only sell if they slide to six or more games back in the Wild Card race — and they’re 3.5 games out with four to play before the deadline at this time. If they make up a bit of ground, they could add a bat, but Stark says it’d likely be a bench piece as opposed to a bigger name. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette said last week he would be a buyer regardless of the team’s play, though others have suggested that the Orioles could still end up selling if they struggle enough.
  • Adding help that can be controlled beyond 2015 is the priority for the Rangers, which is why they’re targeting Hamels, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner while also listening to offers on Yovani Gallardo. However, according to Stark, those moves aren’t linked, and Texas could acquire a rotation piece for 2016 but also hang onto Gallardo. Personally, I think Gallardo’s pitched well enough to warrant a qualifying offer. A draft pick and improved odds of making a late run (especially if they do add another rotation arm) present enough value that the Rangers shouldn’t feel obligated to simply take the best offer for Gallardo if the proposed packages aren’t all that impressive.
  • The Pirates are now likely to hang onto Pedro Alvarez after shopping him without success for several weeks. They’ve asked the Brewers, White Sox and Rays about Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche and James Loney, respectively, but with Alvarez in the fold, they’re not likely to make a move at first. Stark adds that multiple sources downplayed the recent reports connecting Pittsburgh to the Red Sox’ Mike Napoli.
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