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Yovani Gallardo

Brewers’ GM Melvin Discusses Gallardo

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Brewers GM Doug Melvin continues to be frank about how the trade deadline may shape up for his underachieving team.  Talking to Anthony Witrado of Sporting News, Melvin said on Monday, "For us to win games moving forward, Yovani [Gallardo] should be a part of that, but some teams get in pennant races and need that one guy to get them over the hump.  It’s not a slam dunk that I’m going to trade Yovani or [Kyle] Lohse, but you never know. There’s a lot we have to consider about our club right now." 

Gallardo is "already a guy teams are charting," an NL Major League scout told Witrado.  The 27-year-old righty may emerge as the best starting pitcher available this summer.  Cliff Lee may not be available (and some teams would be priced out anyway), while Jake Peavy is on the DL with a rib fracture and Matt Garza comes with the uncertainty of a ten-month layoff.  Plus, as Melvin explained, "That Yovani is not a free agent like guys like [Zack] Greinke or Anibal Sanchez last year, he has more value than just two months of a rental, so the package from another team has to be something that will wow me."

Gallardo will have about $2.6MM remaining in 2013 salary at the July trade deadline, and then is owed $11.25MM in 2014 and has a $13MM club option with a $600K buyout for 2015.  He can block trades to ten teams, including the Orioles.  Having strung together 21 scoreless innings over his last three outings, Gallardo chopped his ERA from 5.25 to 4.09 in the course of about two weeks.  Overall he hasn't missed bats this year like he used to, but he still looks like a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher moving forward.  The Orioles, Padres, and Giants are among the contenders known to be seeking starting pitching, but almost any team could make room for Gallardo.

Melvin spoke in praise of relievers John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez, who appear to be trade candidates.  The Brewers make for an interesting seller, as Lohse is another useful starter and they could offer up one of the market's better bats in Aramis Ramirez.

Rosenthal On Nolasco, D’Backs, Rockies, Gallardo

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports posted his latest edition of Full Count.  Here's a look at the highlights..

  • The Rockies and Marlins recently had talks about Ricky Nolasco, but money was an obstacle as he is still owed about $6MM on his deal.  The Diamondbacks are another possible destination for the Miami pitcher, and it makes sense that NL West clubs have interest given his success against the Giants and at AT&T Park throughout his career.  Nolasco is a native of Southern California, so if the Padres acquire him, he could be open to an extension before he hits the open market this winter.
  • The Orioles can forget about acquiring Yovani Gallardo as they are on his ten-team no-trade list and the Brewers would prefer to make a clean deal with no restrictions.  Meanwhile, the Brewers' pitchers are getting hot at the right time – Gallardo, Francisco Rodriguez, and John Axford have all looked strong as of late and could draw interest from contending clubs.
  • in the likely event that the Twins become sellers, their only untouchable veterans figure to be Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins.  Trading the remainder of Justin Morneau's $14MM salary would be helpful, but his lack of power hurts his value.  

Central Notes: Gallardo, Twins, White Sox

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The Royals made this a special Father's Day for 21 dads as the team invited the players' fathers to travel with them on their current road trip to Tampa and Cleveland. Dick Kaegel of MLB.com reports the idea was the brainstorm of the Royals' senior director of travel Jeff Davenport, who borrowed the idea from NHL teams, and was approved quickly by GM Dayton Moore and manager Ned Yost. The idea came as a shock to some of the dads including the father of infielder Elliot Johnson, Robert. "Elliot told me about it and I had to call him back three times to make sure I got this story right — I said, 'You've got to be kidding me. All I have to do is get to Kansas City and they're going to put me on a plane and fly me along with you and not charge me anything? And I'm going to get in a hotel and eat with you guys and hang out with you?" The trip hasn't been without incident. Robert Johnson admitted he had an argument with Hall of Famer and new Royals batting coach George Brett over – what else – Elliot's hitting. In other news and notes from MLB's Central divisions: 

  • After struggling for most of the season, Yovani Gallardo has now tossed 14 consecutive scoreless innings. With the Brewers in last place and Gallardo controlled affordably through 2015 ($11.25MM in 2014 and a 2015 club option worth $13MM), the right-hander's name has popped up as a trade candidate (including by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes two weeks ago) and he has heard the talk. "We'll see what happens," Gallardo told reporters including MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. "It's definitely a little bit different. It's the first time I've been in a situation like this — not to say that anything is going to happen." McCalvy reports Gallardo can block trades to ten teams, but Gallardo acknowledges even he doesn't know the identity of all of them. 
  • While the Brewers don't anticipate Corey Hart returning from offseason knee surgery until after the All-Star break, at the earliest, GM Doug Melvin will not rush first base prospect Hunter Morris to the Majors, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Melvin told Haudricourt service time considerations aren't part of the decision-making process, "He needs to play more at Triple-A. We just want to make sure he's ready before making a move like that." The Brewers entered the weekend last in the NL at first base with a .493 OPS and 14th with four home runs and a .275 slugging percentage.
  • Twins GM Terry Ryan told Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and Kevin Correia will be the most asked about players as the Trade Deadline approaches (Twitter link).
  • Twins closer Glen Perkins will also be sought after by teams looking to bolster their bullpen, including the division rival Tigers. Ryan, however, told Bowden he has not had any conversations with Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski and would rather have Perkins pitch for him than against him (Twitter link).
  • Yesterday, the White Sox announced the signing of seventh-round draft choice Trey Michalczewski. Today, Jim Callis of Baseball America tweeted the prep third baseman will receive a $500K bonus, which is $323.4K above the recommended slot (per Baseball America). 

Quick Hits: Rodriguez, Nolasco, Davis, Martin, Astros

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Tonight's Brewers vs. Marlins matchup surely was of interest to teams that might pursue starting pitching in the trade market, Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweeted at the beginning of the game. Yovani Gallardo started for the Brewers and pitched eight shutout innings, striking out four and walking one. The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco, another trade candidate, didn't fare so well, allowing four runs while striking out five and walking two over 5 1/3 innings. Here are more notes from around the league.

  • Last November, the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks expressed interest in Alex Rodriguez, Ken Belson and David Waldstein of the New York Times report. The Yankees never discussed the matter with the Japanese team, because they knew Rodriguez required hip surgery that would limit him in 2013, and because they knew Rodriguez would not consent to playing overseas.
  • Ike Davis' poor performance (and subsequent demotion) may make him a non-tender candidate in the coming offseason, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York argues. Davis will make $3.125MM this season, and will be eliglble for arbitration next season. He hit .161/.242/.258 in 207 plate appearances this year before the Mets shipped him to Triple-A Las Vegas.  Last month, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes discussed many potential non-tender candidates, including Davis, Clayton Richard, and Chris Perez.
  • The Pirates have had a number of surprisingly good pitching performances this year, and what connects them is catcher Russell Martin, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Martin's pitch-framing is highly-regarded, and he also wins praise for his game-calling. His impact on the Pirates' pitching staff makes the two-year, $17MM contract to which the Bucs signed him this offseason look like a very good one, Sawchik argues.
  • The Astros are rebuilding the right way, says ESPN's Jim Bowden in a new video. Bowden argues that GM Jeff Luhnow, manager Bo Porter and new president Reid Ryan are the right leaders for the Astros. Bowden also says the Astros' top draft picks help set them up to the future. The Astros selected Carlos Correa first overall in 2012, then grabbed Mark Appel with this year's top pick. They'll also have a very high pick next year. Not trying to spend their way out of last place is the right strategy for the Astros, Bowden says, because of the top picks they get as a result.
  • The Orioles are not interested in Jon Garland, MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko tweets. The Rockies released Garland this afternoon after he posted a 5.82 ERA with 4.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 for them.

Brewers Looking To The Future

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At 21-35, the Brewers have virtually no chance of making the playoffs this year.  Speaking to Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, GM Doug Melvin was frank: "If we make any more trades this year, it's going to be for two or three years from now instead of now.  I'm not going to be trading any young players to win games."  It seems obvious that the last-place Brewers wouldn't be making win-now trades in July, but now Melvin has put it out there publicly.

The "two or three years from now" part is interesting to me, because I had assumed Melvin would focus more on acquiring players that can help them next year, to take advantage of the window of having Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Jean Segura relatively cheap and in their primes.  Braun is under control through 2020, but his salary will jump from $12MM to $19MM in 2016.  Gomez is signed through '16.  Segura is under team control through 2018 and arbitration eligible after 2015, and the Brewers offered a long-term extension in April.

I wrote a trade candidate piece about Yovani Gallardo yesterday, and if the Brewers' focus is less on 2014, moving Gallardo makes even more sense.  Notable on that front: initial word is the Orioles don't have strong interest in Gallardo, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Other potential trade candidates on the Brewers include Aramis Ramirez, Kyle Lohse, Rickie Weeks, John Axford, Tom Gorzelanny, Mike Gonzalez, Francisco Rodriguez, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Corey Hart when healthy.

Trade Candidate: Yovani Gallardo

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The Brewers have a 21-34 record, and they play in a division with three teams playing .614 ball or better.  Milwaukee is highly unlikely to make the playoffs this year.  Their farm system is in the bottom third to put it kindly and the team lacks a first-round pick this Thursday, so it would seem they have a great opportunity to add prospects this summer.  The problem: the team is lacking for strong trade candidates.  Rickie Weeks has been terrible.  Kyle Lohse has been OK, though teams don't typically trade players a few months into a three-year contract.  Corey Hart is a free agent after the season, but he still hasn't made his season debut.  Aramis Ramirez is a quality bat, though he's essentially owed $20MM next year.  Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez aren't going anywhere.  But what about Yovani Gallardo?

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When the Brewers signed Gallardo to a five-year, $30.1MM deal in April 2010, it was a commitment to build their rotation around him.  He was 24 years old with minimal mileage on his arm, an average fastball velocity topping 92 miles per hour, and a strikeout rate of nearly ten per nine innings.  He was a reliable producer in the three seasons that followed, even if walks and home runs kept him a bit short of an ace.

2013 has been a rough year, however.  Gallardo was arrested for DUI in April, with a blood-alcohol level of 0.22.  Things haven't been great on the field, either.  His strikeout rate of 7.45 per nine innings is a career low.  His home run rate is also a career worst, and he's allowed a whopping ten hits per nine.  Those last two factors are likely to be better moving forward, but it is troublesome to see his average fastball velocity down to 90.5 miles per hour.

The velocity might be partially an early-season thing – Gallardo averaged 91.93 miles per hour on Friday, according to BrooksBaseball.net, compared to 92.89 one year prior.  Despite Gallardo's 5.05 ERA, his skills suggest a 4.10 ERA moving forward.  Still, this is a player who has never posted an ERA above 3.84 in his big league career.  His lower walk rate in 2011 seems like a fluke, it's hard to say whether the strikeout rate will fully return, and he's always been homer-prone.

At the trade deadline, Gallardo will have about $2.58MM remaining in 2013 salary.  He's owed a reasonable $11.25MM for 2014, and then his club can choose a $13MM club option or $600K buyout for '15.  He can block deals to ten teams.  On May 18th Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports said the Brewers were "really reluctant to trade Gallardo," but Rosenthal seems to have softened his stance on Saturday in calling the pitcher an "intriguing name."  I imagine a rocky start to the season won't be enough to torpedo Gallardo's trade value.

The case against moving Gallardo: the Brewers have Braun, Gomez, and Jean Segura for about $17.5MM total next year, far below their value.  Even if we disregard everyone else on the roster, that's a lot of star-level, affordable talent to waste amid a full-blown rebuild.  I don't think the Brewers will punt on 2014, which means they need Gallardo or at least a suitable replacement.

That might be the key.  Gallardo's $11.25MM salary next year is steep for a team with a payroll under $100MM, and the Brewers could look to acquire a big league-ready pitcher earning the league minimum, plus other pieces.  It would be best to target a pitcher who hasn't had much big league success to date, but could learn on the job for the last few months of 2013 and take a step forward in '14.  Some potential examples, in my opinion, could be Nate Karns of the Nationals, Jesse Biddle of the Phillies, Allen Webster of the Red Sox, Zach Lee of the Dodgers, and Kyle Gibson of the Twins.  Perhaps some or even all of those specific names are off-limits, but it's the type of pitcher I'd expect Brewers GM Doug Melvin to pursue if he entertains offers on Gallardo in the coming months.  Melvin could add further value by including one of his veteran relievers in a deal.  A trade within the NL Central would be tough, but otherwise, nearly any other contender could show interest, as you can never have enough pitching and Gallardo is more than a rental.  

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rosenthal On Cubs, Brewers, Marlins

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Ken Rosenthal's new video for FOX Sports offers a variety of trade tidbits on the Cubs, Brewers and Marlins.

  • Matt Garza of the Cubs makes an intriguing trade candidate, but Rosenthal says that one can't rule out the possibility that the Cubs will keep Garza and extend him a qualifying offer at the end of the season, hoping to collect draft-pick compensation. Scott Feldman might also be traded, but Rosenthal notes that his peripherals indicate he has been lucky so far.
  • Alfonso Soriano has only one year left on his eight-year, $136MM contract, which could make him a more attractive trade target than in years past, Rosenthal notes, but Soriano also has a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his destination.
  • The Brewers, meanwhile, have fewer trade options, Rosenthal argues. Corey Hart is hurt, Rickie Weeks is in the midst of a poor season, and Aramis Ramirez is owed $16MM in 2014 and has a $4MM buyout on his mutual option the following season. The Brewers will be "reluctant" to trade Yovani Gallardo, whose contract carries him through next season and gives the Brewers an option on his services in 2015.
  • The Marlins have received calls on relievers Steve Cishek, Ryan Webb and Mike Dunn, Rosenthal reports.

Brewers Notes: Lohse, Rotation, Mat Gamel

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Today, the Brewers are hosting Brewers On Deck, their annual winter fan festival. Here's the news being made at the event:

  • Owner Mark Attanasio says there's always a chance the Brewers could enter the bidding for free agent starter Kyle Lohse, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. "It’s a function of size of contract, length of contract." Attanasio said. "Kyle had a phenomenal two seasons the last two seasons. We just have to see if that fits in our overall scheme." Attanasio refused to specifically say if the team has spoken with Scott Boras, Lohse's agent.
  • Manager Ron Roenicke indicated Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada are locks for the starting rotation leaving Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta, Mark Rogers, and Chris Narveson vying for the other three spots, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Roenicke questioned whether Narveson, who underwent rotator cuff surgery last May on his throwing shoulder, will be ready for camp; but, assistant GM Gord Ash said everything is great with the left-hander and he is not behind schedule, reports Haudricourt. 
  • Roenicke touted the team’s rotation depth, arguing the five starters at the beginning of the season don’t have to be the same five at the end, writes McCalvy. Roenicke referred to options like recently signed free agent reliever Tom Gorzelanny, who has experience as a starter, and prospects Tyler Thornburg and Hiram Burgos.
  • Earlier today, we learned the Brewers are seeking first basemen in light of Corey Hart's knee surgery on Friday, which will force him to miss the first two months of the season. Mat Gamel, Hart's replacement, himself underwent knee surgery last May. Assistant GM Gord Ash said Gamel was examined today and "he is ready to go," Haudricourt tweeted. 
  • Melvin did say he is talking to a couple of free agent infielders, reports McCalvy on Twitter. Haudricourt opines it sounds like shortstop Alex Gonzalez is still in play (Twitter link). Gonzalez played 24 games for the Brewers in 2012 before his season was cut short by knee surgery.
  • The Brewers will lose the only catchers on their 40-man roster, Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonado, to the World Baseball Classic. Haudricourt stumped Roenicke when he asked the manager about the catching depth chart. "Don't ask me that question because I don't know," said Roenicke. "I want a guy that's going to be with us to be working with these (pitchers), to get them locked in. We're not going to have our two guys there talking to them all the time. So it's going to be difficult. There isn't (an obvious No. 3 catcher)." The Brewers will have five non-roster catchers in camp who have a combined six games of big league experience.

So Far, So Good For Lester, Gallardo, Romero

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If a team signs a pitcher to an extension and he becomes an Opening Day starter, the club has an indication that the deal is going well. It’s too early on in the extensions for Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo and Ricky Romero to call them successes or failures, because none of the extensions expire before 2013. But all three starters will pitch this Opening Day, a sign that the deals are going well for the teams so far.

Gallardo

The three extensions, signed within 18 months of one another between March, 2009 and August, 2010, are all for five years with a club option for a sixth year and are all valued within the narrow $30-30.1MM range. 

The pitchers signed similar extensions because they were on statistically similar career paths before finalizing the deals. And fortunately for the Red Sox, Brewers and Blue Jays, the pitchers have performed just as well – maybe even better – since accepting their clubs’ multi-million dollar offers.

Lester, the first to sign, has been one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game since 2009 (WAR says Cliff Lee is the only lefty who pitched better in ’09-’10). In 411 1/3 innings (64 starts) since signing, Lester has posted a 3.33 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.

Gallardo, the lone right-hander in the group, signed last April, a year after the Red Sox locked Lester up. Since the ink dried on his deal with Milwaukee, Gallardo (pictured) has logged 178 innings (30 starts) and posted a 3.84 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9.

Romero broke out last year, posting a 3.73 ERA in 210 innings. That prompted the Blue Jays to lock him up in August, so he has made just nine starts since signing his deal. The 26-year-old posted respectable numbers over the final month and a half of the season: a 4.26 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9.

The trio has stayed healthy and effective so far, but with three to five years remaining on the deals, there’s ample time for the extensions to backfire. All three teams were willing to take that risk when they offered tens of millions to the promising pitchers and, at least so far, the investments have paid off.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Odds & Ends: Brewers, Nolasco, Thames, Astros

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Happy Holidays to all of MLBTR's readers. Here is today's batch of links…

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