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Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

Blue Jays Notes: Pitching, Pineda, Tsutsugo, Tellez

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The Blue Jays have been connected to several free agent starting pitchers this offseason, with club GM Ross Atkins voicing a desire to “add significantly” to a staff that, as presently constructed, is relatively short on proven arms. With free agent starters beginning to trickle off the board, Toronto’s course from here forward may become increasingly tricky to plot, as noted in an exploratory piece from Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star (link). Kyle Gibson, a starter in whom Toronto was said to have an interest, has signed a multi-year deal with the Rangers, while Jake Odorizzi, another reported target, opted to accept his qualifying offer from Minnesota. In Chisholm’s view, many of the remaining available options offer an unpalatable mix of red flags. Zack Wheeler is a “massive risk” in the writer’s view, while arms like Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, and Hyun-Jin Ryu are unlikely due to either age or their “expected desires to play for a contender”. While Chisholm is justified in being doubtful of a truly earth-shattering free agent acquisition, given the club’s history in the open market, an observer might note that Atkins could be able to sell a veteran pitcher on a near-term return to contention in Toronto, given the club’s ample payroll space and trove of quality young players. After all, last offseason saw Manny Machado settle in with San Diego based partly on the club’s general organizational direction, and Jays youngsters like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Nate Pearson could all make for appealing future teammates to any of the market’s higher-end starters.

More news from the north country…

  • But what if Toronto’s front office does decide to eschew higher-priced free agent starters in favor of a few Black Friday bargains? That’s the question asked by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, who identifies three potential open-market additions who, for various reasons, may be willing to accept relatively marked-down deals. While Jordan Lyles and Wade Miley would each make for reasonable innings-eating inclusions into Toronto’s pitching corps, Nicholson-Smith tops his list of potential bargains with big righty Michael Pineda. By my own addition, it seems reasonable to conclude that Pineda could start garnering interest from clubs seeking value on their holiday shopping lists. Though some teams will surely be wary of a player who is slated to miss the first six weeks of 2020 due to a PED suspension, that pockmark on Pineda’s track record could theoretically help create a value proposition for an interested club; moreover, though Pineda’s bottom-line results in the bigs have largely been ho-hum–with a career 4.04 ERA in 800-plus innings with the Mariners, Yankees, and Twins–underlying metrics include a 3.67 career FIP and a career 4.47 K/BB ratio. With a four-seamer that dropped down to 92.5 mean mph in 2019, Pineda won’t be most imposing addition to a team’s front end, but he’s a known commodity who would certainly slot in well to a rotation like Toronto’s.
  • The Jays have been said to have interest in former NPB player and MLB hopeful Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, leading Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic to forecast his potential fit into the Toronto position player mix. Atkins recently cited Tsutsugo’s versatility as one of his key benefits, in reference to the fact that the 28-year-old has played the corner outfield, first, and third in recent seasons with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. However, scouting reports on Tsutsugo’s defense have generally been damning with faint praise. Of Tsutsugo’s 2019 stint at third base, veteran NPB scribe Jim Allen says: “It’s not that he could play it OK, but it didn’t bother his offense at all.” This type of hedging leads McGrath to conclude that Tsutsugo’s ultimate destination in Toronto would likely be first base, with his patient, left-handed bat likely pushing Rowdy Tellez to the margins of the roster. Tsutsugo would likely happily receive calls for Toronto, due to his stated lack of preference for geographical location, but interested teams will only have until Dec. 19 to agree to terms to a deal that will pay a dependent release fee to his parent club in Yokohama.

 

Latest On Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

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NPB star and MLB hopeful Yoshitomo Tsutsugo spoke to reporters for the first time since his posting on Nov 18, indicating that he will have not have a specific geographic location in mind when assessing his options among major league clubs, according to a report from The Japan Times.

As the report notes, four of Japan’s six current major leaguers, Kenta Maeda, Shohei Ohtani, Yusei Kikuchi, and Yoshihisa Hirano, signed with teams in the western portion of the states after their own postings in recent offseasons. Flights to Japan are, obviously, much more manageable from the West Coast, but Tsutsugo was concise and unequivocal in saying that he’ll consider playing for any MLB team: “Wherever the team is located is fine, so no,” Tsutsugo said when asked if a team’s region would be a chief consideration.

Tsutsugo, who turns 28 on Tuesday, represents one of the more interesting outfield options available this winter. For teams not quite ready to jump into the melee surrounding Nicholas Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, Tsutsugo could represent something of a relative value play. The slugger posted a .293/.402/.574 slash line over his last four seasons in Japan, with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, and a 15.1 percent walk rate to his credit. However, he did post a 2019 season that was somewhat below his typical Nippon standards (.272/.388/.511, 29 home runs).

The Marlins, for one, have already been connected to a number of outfield bats this winter, with both Castellanos and Ozuna coming to mind as high-profile names who may be fielding calls from Miami team president of baseball operations Michael Hill. The club also appears to have some in interest Tsutsugo, as SiriusXM’s Craig Mish recently reported (Twitter link); Mish does caution that the club may view Tsutsugo as more of a “secondary type”, perhaps reflecting some industry concerns surrounding the lefty swinger’s defensive capabilities in the corner outfield. It’s worth noting, however, that the NPB star does have some experience at first base, which could be helpful for a Miami club that largely deployed a light-hitting combination of Neil Walker, Garrett Cooper, and the recently retired Martin Prado at that spot in 2019.

Under the new posting system, which went into effect after Ohtani’s signing, the team that agrees to sign Tsutsugo will also need to pay a release fee to his original club, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, that will be determined by the relative size of the contract. The MLB team that signs this slugger will pay Yokohama  20% of guaranteed money up to $25MM, 17.5% for promised cash between $25MM and $50MM, and then 15% of anything beyond. There are also some provisions that allow for additional release fees in the event that certain non-guaranteed earnings are triggered. As a ten-year NPB veteran, he will not be subject to the restrictions on international signings that limited the earning potential of Ohtani. Tsutsugo and his reps at Wasserman Agency have until Dec 19 to finalize a contract with a major league team.

Yokohama BayStars Post Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

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November 18: The posting formally occurred today, meaning the deadline to reach a deal is December 19th, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

November 15: The Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced Friday that they have posted slugging left fielder/first baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo for Major League teams (link via the Japan Times). He now has 30 days to negotiate with MLB teams willing to pay the BayStars a release fee that is dependent on the size of the contract he signs.

Tsutsugo, who turns 28 on Nov. 26, has been one of Japan’s most prominent sluggers for the past four seasons, hitting a combined .293/.402/.574 with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate. His best season came back in 2016, when he launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680. It’s worth noting that Tsutsugo’s 2019 season was his weakest of the past four (.272/.388/.511, 29 home runs) and saw his strikeout rate climb to 25.3 percent.

There’s little doubting Tsutsugo’s raw power, but his ability to handle increased velocity, make consistent contact and contribute on the defensive side of the ball in MLB are less certain. Listed at 6’0″ and 209 pounds, Tsutsugo doesn’t run particularly well, and although he’s spent some time at third base in his career, most scouting reports on him agree that he’s limited to an outfield corner or first base at this point. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently wrote of Tsutsugo that he’s a potential everyday player but one with “no margin for error because of defensive limitations,” noting that has questionable hands could make him a liability at first base. Sports Info Solutions’ Will Hoefer wrote in September that Tsutsugo has a plus throwing arm and “could be hidden in right field with strong positioning.”

The extent to which MLB clubs are sold on Tsutsugo’s defense will determine the interest in him. It’s easy to envision some NL clubs shying away — particularly those who already have a set first baseman locked into place. But Toronto general manager Ross Atkins has already acknowledged some interest in Tsutsugo, and the White Sox stand out as an obvious potential fit with both corner outfield and DH openings. Speculating a bit further, any of the Mariners, Tigers, Royals or Rangers could find a way to work him into a first base/DH/corner outfield rotation. The Marlins, with uncertainty at first base and in the outfield corners, are an on-paper fit in the NL. There’s certainly a case to be made that any rebuilding club could give Tsutsugo a look and hope to land a relatively affordable piece who can help turn things around or emerge as a trade asset.

Under the current posting system, a Major League team interested in Tsutsugo would owe the BayStars 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed to him, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of any dollars spent north of $50MM. That release fee is on top of the guarantee itself. Contract options and performance incentives, once unlocked or triggered, are subject to a supplemental 15 percent release fee. For minor league deals, MLB clubs pay out 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s salary upon being added to the 25-man roster is subject to a supplemental posting fee.

Tsutsugo, who is being represented by Wasserman, has a finite free-agent window due to the 30-day nature of the posting system, so within a few days of the conclusion of next month’s Winter Meetings (from Dec. 8-12), we’ll know if he’s coming to MLB and where he’ll be playing.

Blue Jays Notes: Giles, Japanese FAs, Gurriel, Hernandez

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While Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles looks like an obvious offseason trade candidate, general manager Ross Atkins indicated Tuesday it’s not a sure thing the team will deal him. “We’ve been really focused on acquiring players. We really haven’t engaged on trading players away much at all,” Atkins said in regards to Giles (per Jon Morosi of MLB.com). The flamethrowing Giles may have been out of Toronto by now had he been healthy at the July 31 deadline, but elbow issues helped prevent a trade from coming together. The 29-year-old was utterly brilliant in 2019, though, as he recorded a 1.87 ERA/2.27 FIP with 14.09 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 and 23 saves on 24 tries over 53 innings. Giles is now going into his final season of arbitration, in which he’s projected to make an affordable $8.4MM.

Here’s more on Toronto, all of which comes courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter links: 1, 2, 3, 4)

  • The Blue Jays have interest in Japanese free agents (or soon-to-be free agents) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Shogo Akiyama and Ryosuke Kikuchi, Atkins revealed. Tsutsugo’s a 27-year-old corner outfielder who has smacked 205 home runs in exactly 4,000 plate appearances in Nippon Professional Baseball. The Yokohama DeNA BayStars intend to post him by Dec. 5. Akiyama will try to parlay a strong nine-year run with the Seibu Lions of NPB into a major league contract. The 31-year-old center fielder, who won’t be subjected to the posting system, may have the highest upside of the three when it comes to earning power, as MLBTR projects he’ll rake in a two-year, $6MM guarantee this offseason. Kikuchi, a member of NPB’s Hiroshima Carp, will be posted after eight seasons with the club. The 29-year-old second baseman has not been an offensive standout in Japan, but he has thrived defensively.
  • Toronto’s at least considering using outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez in the infield next season, per Atkins. Gurriel began his career as a middle infielder, but he struggled enough there that the team shifted him to left field in 2019. That experiment paid off, though it’s reportedly possible Gurriel could be an offseason trade chip for the club. As for Hernandez, although the .230/.306/.472 line he put up in 464 plate appearances this year doesn’t look great, he did go on a second-half tear and finish with 26 home runs. But Hernandez had difficulty in center field, where he accounted for minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. Going forward, he might see time at first and/or second, Atkins suggested. Toronto looks to be in fine shape at the keystone, where Cavan Biggio enjoyed a terrific rookie season, though first is a question mark. Justin Smoak’s a free agent, and Rowdy Tellez didn’t have an especially successful year.

Japanese Slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo To Be Posted

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Japan’s Yokohama DeNA BayStars announced today that they intend to make star corner outfielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo available through the NPB-MLB posting system. Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times was among those to cover the news via Twitter. Once he’s formally posted, which will occur between November 1st and December 5th, Tsutsugo will have thirty days to negotiate a contract with any of the thirty MLB teams. He’ll be represented by the Wasserman Agency, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.

The 27-year-old left-handed-hitting slugger is a ten-year veteran of Nippon Professional Baseball. Accordingly, he won’t be subject to the restrictions on international signings that limited the earning potential for countrymate Shohei Ohtani and certain other younger and/or less experienced players.

Under the new posting system, which went into effect after Ohtani’s signing, the team that agrees to sign Tsutsugo will also need to pay a release fee that is determined by reference to the contract. Teams pay 20% of guaranteed money up to $25MM, 17.5% for promised cash between $25MM and $50MM, and then 15% of anything beyond. There are also some provisions that allow for additional release fees in the event that certain non-guaranteed earnings are triggered.

Tsutsugo has long been on the MLB radar. He has been among the most effective hitters in Japanese baseball since fully establishing himself at the nation’s highest level in 2014. Since that time, Tsutsugo has devoured NPB pitching. In over four thousand career plate appearances, he’s a .284/.382/.525 hitter with 205 long balls.

This past season wasn’t Tsutsugo’s most dominant, as he provided the BayStars with 557 plate appearances of .272/.388/.511 hitting and launched 29 long balls. That’s a far sight shy of his personal-best 2016 output (.322/.430/.680, 44 home runs) but still plenty productive. Indeed, he was the sixth-best hitter in the NPB by measure of OPS.

There ought to be a fair amount of interest in Tsutsugo among MLB teams, though he’s not generally regarded as a quality fielder and isn’t exceptionally youthful. The most direct market competition will likely come from other left-handed-hitting, power-oriented corner bats such as Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun. It remains to be seen whether Tsutsugo will be targeted as a first-division regular, solid platoon candidate, or something in between.

International Notes: Bahamas, Japan, Korea

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With not much likely to happen in the way of U.S. baseball transactions today, we’ll turn an eye to some locations overseas…

  • The quality of talent in Bahamian baseball is on the rise, writes MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. To date, only six players from the Bahamas have played in the major leagues, including Antoan Richardson, the player who famously crossed the plate for the walk-off run Derek Jeter drove in during his final MLB at-bat. However, as many as fifteen players across MiLB’s 30 farm systems come from the Bahamas. Notably, Kristian Robinson currently ranks as the Diamondbacks’ 12th-best prospect, while Trent Deveaux and D’Shawn Knowles are among the Angels’ top 30 minor-leaguers. Lucius Fox, another Bahamian native (and a former $6MM international signing by the Giants), batted .326 in the Arizona Fall League and projects to open the 2019 season with the Rays’ Double-A Affiliate. Perhaps the most intriguing name on the list of Bahamian prospects is Jazz Chisholm, who’s ranked as the Diamondbacks’ third-best farmhand by MLB Pipeline.
  • Kazuto Yamazaki of Baseball Prospectus suggests that a “wave” of Nippon Professional Baseball talent could make its way to MLB next year, and lists their names in a tweet. Left-handed-hitting outfielder Shogo Akiyama is reportedly set for international free agency, while Takahiro Norimoto, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, and Ryosuke Kikuchi are all probable candidates to be made available through NPB’s posting system. Japan, of course, as produced plenty of high-end MLB talent in recent seasons, including Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani. Yusei Kikuchi, who was just posted earlier this month, is the NPB’s most interesting player to make the jump to MLB this winter.
  • Per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, a longtime Astros scout has taken a job with a Korean Baseball Organization team. Aaron Tassano, who’s also done legwork for the Cubs and Rays, is now the scouting coordinator for the KBO’s Samsung Lions, for whom he’ll now be trying to pluck talent from MLB farm systems. Drellich’s piece compiles some interesting quotes from Tassano that help form a picture of how KBO teams might make their pitches to certain MLB players and their agents.

Quick Hits: Cano, Cashman, Realmuto, Tsutsugo, Joseph

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Robinson Cano is expected to officially become a member of the Mets roster on Monday, with only physical examinations remaining to be completed for the seven players involved in the trade with the Mariners.  Cano arrived in New York on Sunday night, and told the New York Post’s Joseph Staszewski that he is looking forward to joining his new team.  “For me this season is motivating.  It’s blessed always to wear a uniform, be able to play in the big leagues, to play sharp. Mets uniform, there is a lot of pride, a lot of good history and I’m ready to go,” Cano said.  The deal could have been held up due to Cano’s no-trade clause, though he decided to waive his protection after speaking with Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen….who, ironically, helped negotiate that same clause into Cano’s contract in his previous role as Cano’s agent.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • With the Mariners on the verge of both the Cano deal and another major trade, the James Paxton deal to the Yankees almost seems like old news at this point, though that trade took place just two weeks ago.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman revisited his own blockbuster deal speaking to reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) and noted that talks about Paxton began after Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto “said he was willing to talk about everybody but three players,” though “one of them he just moved to the Mets.”  It’s safe to assume that Cashman is referring to Edwin Diaz, who is on the verge of joining Cano on the Mets.  While Dipoto has been open about dealing higher-priced veterans off the Mariners’ roster, he has said that it would take quite a bit more to obtain controllable assets like Diaz, Mitch Haniger, and Marco Gonzales, so one can infer that Haniger and Gonzales may be the other two players that were reportedly off-limits at the time of Dipoto’s talks with Cashman.  Of course, since Diaz has now been shipped to Citi Field, it’s fair to wonder if Haniger and Gonzales could find themselves in different uniforms by Opening Day.
  • Cashman also said that recent reports about the Yankees’ interest in J.T. Realmuto were “false, completely false,” and that the team didn’t make an offer to the Marlins about the All-Star catcher.  According to Fancred’s Jon Heyman, the Yankees were open to the idea of moving Gary Sanchez to Miami for Realmuto in something close to a one-for-one trade, though the Marlins wanted other significant pieces in addition to Sanchez.
  • Yokohama BayStars slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo has told his club that he would like to make the move from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB, according to a Japan Times report.  The 27-year-old Tsutsugo has a career .287/.381/.531 slash line and 176 homers over 3443 plate appearances for the BayStars, with the bulk of that production coming over the last five seasons, including a 44-homer campaign in 2016 and 38 long balls in 2018.  Tsustugo played for Japan’s team in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, and he was selected to participate in the recent MLB Japan All-Star Series, though he didn’t end up suiting for Japan in the exhibition series against a team of Major League notables.  It isn’t yet clear if Tsutsugo could hit the North American market sooner rather than later, as he isn’t eligible for free agency until 2021 and would thus need Yokohama to agree to post him.  “On the one hand (Tsutsugo) is an important player, but it’s also important to consider his feelings. I would like to think about what is optimal for the team,” BayStars president Shingo Okamura said.  Tsutsugo recently renewed his contract for the next NPB season, and is set to earn roughly $3.5MM (or 400 million yen) for his services in 2019.
  • “A handful of teams” have checked in with Caleb Joseph since the catcher was non-tendered by the Orioles, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  Joseph hit just .219/.254/.321 last season and has posted below-average hitting numbers over 1317 career PA in the majors, including an infamous zero-RBI performance over 141 PA in 2016.  The 32-year-old now faces a lot of competition in the free agent catching market, as Kubatko notes.

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