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Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Details On The Mets’ Interest In Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto is expected to be posted by the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball in the coming months, which will make him one of the top free agents available to major league clubs this winter. The Mets are one of many clubs that have reported interest in him and Will Sammon of The Athletic provides some details of their upcoming courtship.

The Mets already made one big signing of a pitcher making the move from Japan, inking Kodai Senga to a five-year deal less than a year ago. That deal is looking good for the club right now, with Senga being one of the few bright spots during a tough 2023 season. He made 29 starts and threw 166 1/3 innings, finishing the year with an earned run average of 2.98.

Yamamoto is expected to be an even more appealing investment than Senga, due to a couple of factors. Senga had an ERA of 2.59 in his NPB career before coming to North America, whereas Yamamoto has a mark of 1.82. Senga dropped his ERA to 1.94 in his final NPB season but Yamamoto’s has landed at 1.21. Furthermore, Senga made the move for his age-30 season whereas Yamamoto just turned 25.

Sammon makes reference to a piece by his colleague Ken Rosenthal, who reported in April that some people in the league think that Japanese players don’t like being on the same team as other Japanese players. This seems like an absurd assertion given that NPB teams are composed primarily of Japanese players and Japanese clubs have also performed extremely well in international play, with their World Baseball Classic triumph earlier this year giving them a third title out of the five times the tournament has been held. Regardless of the merits of that line of thinking, Sammon reports that it wouldn’t apply here, with Yamamoto having no reservations about wearing the same uniform as Senga. Furthermore, Senga has openly told Mets’ management that he wants Yamamoto on the team. Sammon also reports that Yamamoto wants to play in a large market, which should work in the Mets’ favor.

Sammon goes on to address the departure of Billy Eppler, who was with the Yankees when they signed Masahiro Tanaka and with the Angels when they signed Shohei Ohtani. This may have helped him and the Mets in getting Senga aboard, but Eppler recently stepped down as general manager, with president of baseball operations David Stearns now the primary baseball decision maker. Whether the transition from Eppler to Stearns has any impact on the pursuit of Yamamoto isn’t really known.

Beyond those factors, the financials will undoubtedly be significant. Given Yamamoto’s youth and talent, it’s expected by many that he could get himself a lengthy contract with a guarantee in the range of $200MM. That gives an edge to the higher-spending clubs, a group that certainly includes the Mets, with owner Steve Cohen allowing the 2023 club to have the highest payroll in baseball history.

One thing that arguably undercuts the connection to the Mets is that the club is giving hints they won’t be as aggressive this offseason. If the team is planning a sort of reset year after the disappointing 2023 campaign, giving the new president time to assess the organization and build the farm system, then landing one of the top free agents would seem to be a bit incongruous.

But the club does need starting pitching, having dealt away Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the deadline. Carlos Carrasco is also about to hit free agency, leaving the club with a rotation of Senga, José Quintana and a few question marks beyond that. Quintana only has one year left on his deal, creating further uncertainty down the line. The position player prospects in the Mets’ system are also generally regarded higher than their pitching prospects. Since Yamamoto is so young, it’s possible the Mets could view this as a rare opportunity to add a pitcher with many prime years remaining, which would push them to make an earnest pursuit and improve their long-term pitching outlook even if the overall offseason plan is going to be less aggressive than it was a year ago.

The Mets making a legitimate run at Yamamoto seems plausible but they figure to have plenty of competition, as he’s already been publicly connected to the Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, and Red Sox.

Giants Interested In Jason Varitek For Manager Position

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The Giants are looking for a new manager to replace Gabe Kapler and Joel Sherman of The New York Post adds a new name to the list of candidates, reporting that they have asked the Red Sox for permission to speak with Jason Varitek about the vacancy. The Red Sox, who currently employ Varitek as player information coach, have given Varitek to permission to talk to the Giants. The two sides will have an “informational” phone call in the coming days before deciding whether or not to move the process along.

Varitek, 51, played for the Sox from 1997 to 2011 but has transitioned into other roles in his post-playing days. The Sox hired him as a special assistant to the general manager back in 2012, just a few months after his retirement as a player. He got a uniformed coaching role prior to the 2021 campaign, initially with the title of game planning coordinator before becoming player information coach.

He is clearly respected around the league as his name has been connected to various job openings in the past decade. He has been floated as a fit for various managerial positions over the years but he has stayed with Boston that whole time. It was reported in November of last year that Varitek signed a three-year deal to stick with the Sox, but teams generally don’t stand in the way of their staff pursuing external promotions, so it’s not surprising that the Sox are letting him talk to the Giants to see how it goes.

It doesn’t seem like a decision on the job will be made soon. At least one of their known candidates, Rangers bench coach Donnie Ecker, is preoccupied with the ongoing postseason. Per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently made a trip to Japan as part of the club’s ongoing interest in right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Part of the reason he had the time to do that is that they are waiting to speak to some managerial candidates who are not currently available.

Varitek joins Ecker and current Padres manager Bob Melvin as external candidates known to be on the Giants’ list, while Stephen Vogt has already been interviewed. The Giants have also interviewed internal candidates such as bench coach/interim manager Kai Correa, assistant coach Alyssa Nakken and third-base coach Mark Hallberg.

It was reported earlier today that the Giants interviewed Kapler about their front office vacancy, making it possible that he and Varitek end up swapping employers.

Cardinals Have Discussed Coaching Job With Yadier Molina

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The Cardinals and Yadier Molina have had discussions about him joining the major league coaching staff next year, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. The report adds that there’s mutual interest from both parties.

Molina is obviously well known around baseball and particularly in St. Louis. He just wrapped up a playing career that went from 2004 to 2022, all of that in Cardinal red. Now 41, he has previously expressed a desire to move towards managing/coaching in his post-playing career, having already gotten some experience outside of Major League Baseball. Molina has done some managing in the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League as well as acting as skipper for Puerto Rican teams in international play, including the most recent World Baseball Classic.

His potential role with the Cardinals next year isn’t exactly clear, but Woo relays that it’s expected it would be an everyday position. It doesn’t currently appear as though any of the current coaches are in jeopardy, with Molina likely to be an addition rather than a replacement. Woo points out that the club had one of the smaller staffs in the league in 2023, with some players apparently expressing that there “simply wasn’t enough coaching to go around,” in Woo’s words.

Adding another coach, whether Molina or someone else, would obviously help if that’s a real problem for manager Oli Marmol and the rest of the staff. But Molina specifically could be a good fit, given his legendary status in the organization. There’s also the fact that the post-Molina era didn’t kick off with a bang. During Molina’s time as the club’s backstop, they made frequent postseason appearances and only finished below .500 once, back in 2007. But the first season after his retirement saw the club go 71-91 and fall to the basement of the National League Central.

There were whispers that some members of the St. Louis pitching staff weren’t happy with the transition to Willson Contreras, who was signed last offseason to take over Molina’s job behind the plate. Contreras was even moved off the catching position for a time this year, working as the designated hitter only, though he was back behind the plate a week later. If there’s any lingering discord between the pitchers and Contreras, perhaps Molina’s presence as a coach could help to bridge that gap.

Turning to the club’s roster, Woo discusses the club’s impending rotation work. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has openly expressed a desire to bring in three starting pitchers this winter, in order to replace the retiring Adam Wainwright and impending free agents Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom were traded prior to the deadline. Free agency is obviously one avenue to pursuing upgrades, but the Cardinals haven’t traditionally been big spenders in that regard. Their largest free agent signing in franchise history is the $120MM deal they gave to Matt Holliday back in 2010, with Mike Leake’s $80MM deal in 2015 the largest they’ve given to a pitcher.

It seems they are giving some thought to breaking one or both of those records. They have already been connected to Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola, each of whom would likely require a deal larger than Leake’s in order to sign. Woo adds that the club is open to a reunion with Montgomery, though he’s likely pushing his next contract well into nine-figure territory, based both on his regular season work and strong playoff performance with the Rangers thus far.

Woo also adds that the Cards will “check in” on Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last week that the club is indeed interested in Yamamoto, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Speculation around Yamamoto’s potential contract seems to suggest he could be in line for something around $200MM, based both on his youth and his excellent results in Nippon Professional Baseball. Having just turned 25 in August, he’s far younger than typical free agents, and he also has an ERA of 1.82 over his seven NPB seasons.

Giving out a mega deal for a starting pitcher would be new territory for the Cards, but it sounds like they are exploring every avenue in order to put this rough season behind them. That will likely involve trading from their position player mix as well, though who they are willing to part with remains to be seen.

Zaidi: Giants Have Scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee

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During a podcast interview with NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said that his club has been scouting and “continuing to do our work on” two of the offseason’s biggest international targets — ace right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto of NPB’s Orix Buffaloes, and star outfielder Jung Hoo Lee of the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes.

At least 10 MLB teams are known to be scouting Yamamoto already, with the Giants joining a list that includes (and certainly isn’t limited to) the Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, and Red Sox.  The appeal is obvious, as Yamamoto has a 1.82 ERA over his seven seasons and 897 innings with the Buffaloes, and he should have plenty of prime years left since he just turned 25 years old in August.

Zaidi described Yamamoto as “one of the top starting pitchers in the world,” praising the right-hander’s “tremendous combination of athleticism, stuff and command….It just looks like he’s got plus stuff and he’s sort of putting every pitch where he wants to, which in this day and age where we’re so worried about pitch characteristics and velocity, it’s almost different to see somebody execute at that high of a level with good stuff.  A lot of positives there, and he’s been an impressive guy to watch.”

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Yamamoto third in our most recent power ranking of the 2023-24 free agent class, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.  This makes Yamamoto in line to receive the largest deal of any full-time pitcher this winter, with Ohtani obviously a unique case due to his two-way abilities.  The bidding for Yamamoto (and the posting fee to the Buffaloes) could put his total price tag close to $200MM, especially with so many big-payroll teams in the running.

The Giants’ payroll was roughly $196MM in 2023 according to Roster Resource, so while still a healthy amount of salary outlay, San Francisco remained below the upper tier of spenders.  However, it wasn’t for lack of try to spend, as the Giants’ attempts to sign Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa both didn’t materialize, due to Judge re-signing with the Yankees and with the Correa signing seemingly all but finalized before the Giants backed out due to concerns over his physical.

With very little in the way of long-term payroll commitments and increased pressure to win after a pair of non-playoff seasons, the Giants figure to be aggressive this winter, which generally runs counter to Zaidi’s more measured approach to roster construction during his five seasons as PBO.  As Pavlovic notes, Zaidi has shied away from longer-term contracts to pitchers (apart from the club’s extension with the homegrown Logan Webb).

During his end-of-season media conference just a few days ago, Zaidi said he wasn’t planning on targeting pitching depth in general this winter, as he feels San Francisco already has plenty of veteran pitchers and younger arms coming up from the farm system.  That said, Yamamoto is far more than a depth option, and his youth and obvious talent have seemingly made the Giants comfortable in exploring the possibility of what would be far and away the biggest contract (let alone a pitching contract) of Zaidi’s tenure.

Lee doesn’t have Yamamoto’s high profile and he’ll come at a significantly lower price tag, but Lee could very well land a healthy contract himself during an offseason that is generally short on premium free-agent position players.  Like Yamamoto, Lee is also 25 years old, would be subject to a posting fee, and has impressed observers over seven seasons of international ball.

Lee has hit .340/.407/.491 over 3946 career plate appearances for the Heroes, with 65 homers and 244 doubles.  His resume includes KBO League MVP honors in 2022, five KBO Gold Gloves for his defense (mostly in center field), and a standout performance for South Korea’s team in the last World Baseball Classic.

The hitter-friendly nature of the KBO League can sometimes make it hard to fully evaluate a player’s statistics, and Lee is also coming off an injury-shortened 2023 campaign due to a fractured ankle.  However, Lee is expected to be healthy, and his skillset offers plenty of intrigue even beyond his batting potential.  Since improving the defense is a stated goal for Zaidi this winter, adding Lee as San Francisco’s new regular center fielder would allow for Mike Yastrzemski or Austin Slater to play in the corner outfield slots.  Former top prospect Luis Matos projects as the Giants’ 2024 center fielder for the moment, but with Lee on board, Matos could be eased into the big leagues in more of a part-time role.

NPB Players To Watch: September

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The 2023 regular season is approaching its final stages in the NPB. Here’s the latest on the players we’ve been keeping track of at MLBTR. If you need a refresher on more specific player profiles, check out the first edition of the series.

Let’s get to it!

(Stats are as of September 13th)

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto continues to show us why he’s undoubtedly the best pitcher in NPB. The 25-year-old right-hander just tossed his second career no-hitter against the Chiba Lotte Marines this past weekend, in front of scouts/executives of 12 MLB ball clubs, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It feels like a long time ago when I wrote that Yamamoto was having a “slow” start to the season by his standards, with a 2.35 ERA in his first 38 ⅓ innings. Yamamoto has shifted into a different gear since May. Yamamoto hasn’t given up an earned run in six consecutive starts, since the beginning of August. He’s currently on a 42-inning streak without an earned run allowed.

In his 20 starts in 2023, the Orix Buffaloes ace has a 1.26 ERA, striking out 26.2% of hitters and walking just 4.3%, and a 1.86 FIP in 143 frames. That 1.26 ERA is good enough for the lowest ERA in NPB since Masahiro Tanaka’s 1.27 ERA in 2011. Yamamoto is once again on pace to claim the Pacific League pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins).

At age 25, Yamamoto is showing no signs of slowing down and continues to evolve. He notably tweaked his delivery last offseason to more of a slide-step style. Despite the “slow start”, it’s safe to say that the change has paid off, as Yamamoto has raised his average fastball velocity to 95.56 mph (152.9 km/h) compared to 94.9 mph (151.9 km/h) in 2022. In addition to his consistency, strikeout stuff, and ability to pitch deep into games, another development in Yamamoto’s game is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Yamamoto has allowed just two homers all season (he gave up between six and eight homers per season since his first full season as a starting pitcher in 2019).

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

It was reported last week that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars lefty will be posted this off-season, as many in Japan predicted last off-season. The 30-year-old southpaw had his best month in July but got roughed up in August with a 5.27 ERA. He had a bounce-back outing earlier today against the Chunichi Dragons, tossing eight innings of one-run ball and striking out eleven, with the sole run coming from a solo homer. His season numbers are still strong, with a 2.71 ERA, 29.96% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate in his 20 starts.

Although his ERA is not as good as 2022 (2.26), Imanaga’s strikeout rate at 29.9% is a career-best. The Baystars ace notably increased his average fastball velocity in the past few seasons. It now sits around 92.2mph (147.5 km/h), compared to 90.8 mph (145.3km/h) in 2021. While Imanaga’s arm is not overpowering, the combination of his command and strikeout stuff allows him to rack up strikeouts. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer for the Eagles continues to be one of the best relievers in NPB. Despite his young age and being converted to a starter on a few occasions during his career, Matsui is one of the most accomplished closers in the history of NPB. The southpaw became the ninth NPB pitcher in history to reach 200 career saves and was the youngest player to ever reach that mark. On the season, he has the second most saves in NPB with 33. He’s been nothing but reliable, with strong numbers to back it up; posting a 1.55 ERA, 33.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate in 49 appearances. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas free agent rights earlier in the year, giving him the ability to sign with an MLB team without going through the posting system. The Eagles southpaw still hasn’t made clear what his plans are beyond 2023. 

As I wrote in the first edition of the series, Matsui’s struggle to adapt to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, may play a role in his MLB evaluation. If MLB offers aren’t enticing enough, he may very well choose to stay in NPB and attempt to break the NPB save record. 

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi continues to prove that his career-best season in 2022 was not a fluke, posting a strong 2.31 ERA in 22 starts, the eighth highest among qualified starters in the entire NPB. He’s fanned hitters at an 18.8% rate and walking hitters at a 7.7% rate. 

The 27-year-old righty missed a few starts in August because of an illness. He struggled in the first two starts after his return, clearly still regaining his health and conditioning. He bounced back and tossed six shutout innings this past weekend, in front of MLB scouts. He continues to make improvements and his average fastball velocity has improved dramatically since he entered the league, which should make him more intriguing to MLB teams. 

Takahashi made his MLB aspirations clear last offseason, but it’s unclear if he’ll be posted by the Lions. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

Naoyuki Uwasawa has had himself another solid season for the Fighters, posting a 2.84 ERA, with an 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 158 ⅓ innings, the most innings pitched in all of NPB. 

Sports Hochi reported that scouts from the Angels, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cubs attended his September 2nd, so MLB teams are keeping tabs on the 29-year-old right-hander. Unfortunately, there may be a Kohei Arihara-sized cloud hanging over Uwasawa’s MLB dreams. Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure). 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki was on pace for a historic season rivaling Yamamoto’s, before he was diagnosed with a left oblique muscle tear which sidelined him at the end of July. The 6-foot-4 hurler was expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 regular season, but made a surprisingly quick recovery and returned over the weekend. Sasaki was limited to three innings since he skipped a rehab start, but still showcased his lively arm, with his signature fastball sitting between 98mph and 100mph. The Marines will likely not overextend their star right-hander, so he will be carefully managed for the remainder of the season. 

On the season, Sasaki has a 1.53 ERA, an unbelievable 40% strikeout rate, a 4.8% walk rate and 88 innings in his 14 starts. There is no doubt about Sasaki’s talent and natural frame at 6’4″ and 203 pounds. The only thing Sasaki has left to “prove” is his durability, and showcasing that he can pitch multiple full seasons. There is plenty of time for him to prove that, since he’ll likely be posted in the 2026 offseason at the earliest, barring any surprise requests.

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami has shrugged off most concerns and has re-established himself as one of the premier power hitters in NPB. Although he has had, by his standards, the statistically worst season since his rookie season in 2019, Murakami is still slashing a solid .253/.372/.497 with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and a .869 OPS. 

Murakami did address his early season slump in an August interview, where he said he lost his way a little bit while training with the other Japanese stars in the lead-up to the WBC. He said that he got distracted trying to incorporate the training regimen of players like Shohei Ohtani, Masataka Yoshida, and Yu Darvish and did not address his swing as much as he should have. 

While he does have a great walk rate at 18.1%, Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 34.5% rate. He also struggles to hit righties, hitting just .209 against them. He still needs to make improvements with his defense at third base, as he has an NPB-worst 20 errors. This season is obviously far from Murakami’s best, but a down year may allow him to come back even stronger next season.

Murakami signed a three-year deal last offseason that came with a reported guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-2026 offseason. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Okamoto’s name came up in headlines last week, after it was reported that he was on the radar of several MLB teams. Okamoto is in the midst of a career-year, with a slash line of .293/.386/.611 with 90 RBIs and an NPB-leading 38 homers and .997 OPS. He has an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate. He was unstoppable in August, slashing .318/.422/.812, blasting 12 homers and driving in 25 runs. 

Okamoto has hinted at interest in a potential MLB move, but he isn’t set to be a free agent until the 2026-2027 offseason. The 6’1″, 220-pound slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. The Giants slugger has hit 30 homers for six consecutive seasons, which speaks to his durability and consistency.

The Giants are traditionally against the posting system. The only two players they allowed to be posted were Shun Yamaguchi and Tomoyuki Sugano, and both were unique situations. Yamaguchi was given permission because he made it a part of his free agency deal when signing for the Giants from the Baystars in 2016. Sugano was given special permission to enter the posting system, because he refused to join the Nippon Ham Fighters when he was originally drafted in 2011 and he held out for an entire season before being drafted by the Giants in 2012 (and his uncle is Giants manager Tatsunori Hara, which may have played a role).

As expected, the ball club has denied any conversations regarding Okamoto’s potential move, with executive Atsunori Otsuka saying “We’ve heard he has MLB aspirations, but we’ve never had direct discussion with him about that. We typically don’t accept posting, and want our players to earn their overseas rights. It was the same with Hideki Matsui.”

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. Other NPB top performers are also on the list.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines. Liván Moinelo, left-handed reliever, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Raidel Martinez, right-handed reliever, Chunichi Dragons. (Moinelo and Martinez will have to defect their homeland, Cuba, to join MLB)

AL East Notes: Yankees, Kjerstad, Swanson

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The Yankees are among the teams interested in star NPB pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as noted by Newsday’s Erik Boland. Boland added that the club’s director of pro scouting Matt Daley is currently in Japan and another top scout visited to watch Yamamoto pitch earlier in the year. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also notes the Yankees interest, listing them among ten teams that scouted Yamamoto’s most recent start. That list of teams includes the club’s crosstown rival Mets as well as their division rival Red Sox.

Yamamoto, who claimed the #3 spot on MLBTR’s newest edition of the 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings, sports a sensational 1.34 ERA in 127 innings of work with the Orix Buffaloes this year, his age-24 season. That level of excellence extends all the way back to 2021; in 514 2/3 innings of work the past three seasons, Yamamoto’s ERA is 1.50 while he’s struck out 27.2% of batters he’s faced, walking just 5.2%. That level of dominance even eclipses that of former Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, who made two All Star appearances and posted a 3.33 ERA in ten postseason starts for the club after signing a seven-year, $155MM deal with New York prior to the 2014 season.

It’s no wonder the Yankees would have interest in Yamamoto; while they’ve gotten another excellent season out of ace Gerrit Cole, the club’s other starters have largely disappointed. Lefties Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, nominally the club’s #2 and #3 starters, have been limited to just 7 and 12 starts respectively this season thanks to injuries and struggled badly. A Yamamoto signing would certainly give the Yankees a quality arm to pair with Cole at the top of their rotation while simultaneously helping to alleviate pressure not only on Rodon and Cortes, but also on youngsters like Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez entering 2024.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad is on the club’s radar for a possible call-up option when rosters expand on September 1, as GM Mike Elias told reporters (including BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Rich Dubroff). The 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft, Kjerstad didn’t make his MiLB debut until last June thanks to a myocarditis diagnosis but has done nothing but hit since then. In 473 trips to the plate this season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, the 24-year-old outfielder has slashed a sensational .308/.378/.542 with a strikeout rate just below 18%. If called up for the stretch run, Kjerstad would join an outfield that typically sports Austin Hays in left, Cedric Mullins in center, and Anthony Santander in right.
  • Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson exited today’s game against the Guardians with right mid-back discomfort, as noted by The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. The severity of Swanson’s injury isn’t yet known, but even a short absence for the right-hander, who sports a 3.10 ERA and a 29.4% strikeout rate in 58 innings of work this season, would be a substantial blow to Toronto’s bullpen. Of course, the club would still have right-handers Jordan Romano (2.60 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate) and Jordan Hicks (3.83 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate) available for the late innings even if Swanson required a trip to the injured list.

NPB Players To Watch: July

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The NPB All-Star Game wrapped up this week and the second half of the 2023 season is set to start back up tomorrow. Let’s catch up with the NPB stars who may be making their way to MLB. 

For more detailed profiles and playstyles, please take a look at the first post of the series from April!

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

In the last update, I wrote that Yamamoto had his best month of the season. The 24-year-old right-hander has maintained his excellent form through June and through the All-Star break. Outside of a June 23 start against the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks where he gave up four runs in six innings, he’s tossed at least eight innings of one-run ball in each of his last three starts, including a complete game against the Saitama Seibu Lions on July 8. 

On the season, Yamamoto has a 1.74 ERA, a solid 28.7 K%, and an impressive 3.3 BB% in 13 starts and 93 ⅓ innings pitched. He’s fourth in the Pacific League in innings despite having three fewer starts than the league leader. He’s issued just one walk in his past four starts, and hitters have a .201 batting average against him. He was a surprise and controversial snub from the initial All-Star ballot, but was eventually voted in through the “Plus One” runoff voting to earn his fifth consecutive All-Star nod. 

MLB teams are ramping up their interest in Yamamoto, with scouts of eight teams attending his July 8th start, per Sports Hochi. He also ranks second in MLBTR’s recent 2023 free agency power rankings, and as Steve Adams writes, “A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.”

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

The 29-year-old left-hander has been at his very best since the last update, allowing just three runs in 32 innings in his last four starts — including a one-run, complete game against the Hanshin Tigers on June 23 and a seven-inning, 15-strikeout gem against the Yomiuri Giants on July 7. He finished June with a 1.41 ERA and has a 0.60 ERA thus far in July. 

Imanaga’s ERA is down to 2.07, which is fourth among qualified pitchers in the Central League, with a 28.5 K% and a minuscule 2.4 BB% in 12 starts and 87 innings pitched. These stats were good enough for the lefty to get to his second career All-Star nod. Although he is still prone to long balls with 11 homers allowed on the season, he’s otherwise avoided trouble. Imanaga’s chances of coming to MLB are pretty high, as he signed with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement last offseason. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-hander finished the first half with 23 saves, tied for most in NPB. He’s yet to give up a run in eight appearances in July and has been key to the Eagles going 11-3 in the month. The increased workload is a big contrast from NPB updates earlier in the season where Matsui didn’t have as many appearances due to the Eagles’ poor record. 

Matsui has a 0.55 ERA in 34 appearances, with a 36.3 K% and a 4.1 BB%. Although he was snubbed from the All-Star Game, Matsui is happy with the rest. “I’m thankful [for the increased workload], it’s my job to close out games and win so it’s a good thing,” Matsui said. Matsui has still not made his plans beyond 2023 clear, but he is definitely a name to keep an eye on for teams that need a lefty for their bullpen.

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi has had a rough July on paper, recording a 3.79 ERA in three starts, including two outings lasting just five innings. He’s bounced back from those outings in his most recent start on July 16, tossing a four-hit, six-strikeout, complete game shutout against the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. It was his first shutout since 2020 and the fourth of his career.

The 26-year-old right-hander’s ERA now sits at 2.25 despite the rough starts in the past few months, with a 19.1 K% and a 6.8 BB% in 16 starts and 108 innings pitched. Takahashi also missed out on the All-Star game despite his strong performance in the first half thanks to a deep pool of quality starters in the Pacific League.

Takahashi’s strikeout rate has dropped in the past few weeks, but increased average fastball velocity and ability to eat innings should still be appealing to MLB teams looking for some starting pitching help. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

In the last update, I wrote that Uwasawa was back to his best, and finishing the season closer to a 2.50 ERA would help his chances for an MLB contract this offseason. The 29-year-old right-hander followed up his strong June with solid performances in July, including eight shutout innings against the Lions this past weekend. 

His season ERA is down to 2.87 with a 17.3 K% and 7.4 BB%. If you remove his worst start of the season against the Lions on April 15 (where he gave up eight earned runs in 5 ⅓ innings), his ERA goes all the way down to 2.31. It’s quite a remarkable turnaround for Uwasawa considering that his ERA was up to 4.62 on May 6. He is third in the Pacific League with 106 ⅔ innings in 15 starts. Uwasawa received his second career All-Star nod, his first since 2021. 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

In his last three starts since the last update, Sasaki has allowed just one run in 22 frames while going at least seven innings and fanning at least 10 in every one of those starts. He also matched the record for the fastest NPB pitch at 103 MPH. In his most recent start, where he struck out 14 in seven innings, the average velocity on his fastball was at 99 MPH. There aren’t enough words to describe Sasaki’s dominance in the first half of 2023, as he finished with an NPB-best 1.48 ERA in 12 starts. He had an unfathomable 41 K%, 4.7 BB%, and a.151 opponent batting average in 79 innings pitched. It’s hard to imagine Sasaki can improve on these numbers, but with the combination of his age at 21 and 2023 being just his second full season of work, it’s certainly possible he reaches another level. Sasaki still has room to improve his in-game stamina and has some remaining physical projection. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami continues to look more like his Triple Crown-winning self, following up a strong June with a few solid weeks to finish up the first half of the season. He’s slashing .306/.352/.612 with four homers in July. Murakami finished the first half of the season slashing .242/.359/.451 with 16 homers and his OPS is finally above .800 at .809. Despite his horrendous slump to open the season, Murakami still finished the first half in the top three in homers and RBI in the Central League. He’s managed to regain some of his form  even though the Swallows are missing key lineup contributors with injuries: including perennial All-Star Tetsuto Yamada and Yasutaka Shiomi, who has been a .800 OPS hitter since 2020. Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 31% rate and has a strong 14.2 BB%. Murakami missed out on the All-Star Game, 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Although the 27-year-old corner infielder is slashing a .297/.393/.557 with a .950 OPS, 20 homers, and 51 RBIs (all in the three in all categories in the Central League), Okamoto has cooled off significantly in July, slashing just .208/.328/.375. The All-Star break could not have come at a better time for Okamoto, who had just two hits out of 26 plate appearances in his last six games to close the first half. He was the first to reach the 20-homer mark in NPB on July 7, on a solo homer off of Imanaga, but hasn’t added to his tally since. Despite the mini-slump, Okamoto is still on pace for what would be his sixth consecutive 30-homer season.

An interesting note is that he has been mashing lefties this season, slashing .355/.463/.656 in 110 plate appearances. If he is able to continue to mash lefties, the combination of Okamoto’s consistent power numbers, solid defense at the corners (two-time Gold Glove winner), and potential for positional versatility (taking reps at left field this year) should be a compelling package for MLB teams looking to add a right-handed power bat. 

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines.

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition

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We’re at the regular season’s halfway point, and the free-agent landscape has changed a fair bit since we last ran through our Power Rankings back in mid-April. Injuries, changes in performance — some for the better, some for the worse — and more have combined to provide more context as to what shape the top of the free agent market will take.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Youth, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: There are no surprises up top. Ohtani remains far and away the top name on this year’s list — so much so that he might even command double the No. 2 entrant on our list. That’s both a testament to his general excellence and an indictment on what is generally a weaker free agent class than is typical.

Ohtani, 29 in July, isn’t having quite as dominant a season on the mound as he did in 2022, but he’s still been quite good and is enjoying his best year to date with the bat. In 95 1/3 innings, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The latter is a marked uptick from the 6.7% he logged a year ago. Ohtani’s strikeout rate is only down about half a percentage point from its 2022 levels, but he’s seen more notable drops in swinging-strike rate (from 14.9% to 13.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (32.6% to 29.5%). This is also the most homer-prone he’s ever been on the mound; his 1.13 HR/9 is a career-high, and the 12 homers he’s allowed in 95 1/3 innings innings are already just two shy of last year’s total of 14 — which came over a span of 166 frames.

To some extent, that’s just nitpicking. Ohtani has still been excellent. His ERA ranks 15th among qualified starting pitchers, and only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has a higher strikeout rate. He currently ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in K-BB% (23%), and fielding-independent metrics are generally supportive of his success (e.g. 3.40 SIERA, 3.35 xERA). Hitters simply haven’t been able to make good contact against Ohtani, outside that handful of home runs anyway. His 86 mph average opponents’ exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile of MLB pitchers. His 34.8% opponents’ hard-hit rate is in the 77th percentile. He’s induced grounders at a solid 44.4% clip. The uptick in walks is significant, but that’s only taken Ohtani from an ace-level performer to a slight step below that level.

And of course, when discussing Ohtani, the mound work is only half the equation. His work in the batter’s box this season has been nothing short of sensational. In 360 plate appearances, Ohtani is batting .309/.389/659. That’s 82% better than league-average production after weighting for home park, by measure of wRC+. Ohtani has already belted 28 home runs, and he’s added 15 doubles and five triples while swiping 11 bags (in 15 tries). This year’s 11.4% walk rate is right an exact match for his career mark (although shy of his 15.6% peak), and his 21.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.

Ohtani has averaged an obscene 93.7 mph off the bat this year and ranks in the 95th percentile (or better) of MLB hitters in exit velocity, barrel rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. He’s a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat with the speed to swipe 25 to 30 bases and the power to clear 40 home runs.

When chatting about this update to our Power Rankings, Anthony Franco rhetorically asked me if I thought Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher (if somehow separated) would both still individually rank ahead of the rest of this year’s class of free agents. We both agreed that they would. Fortunately, one team will get both this offseason — it just might cost more than half a billion dollars.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes (Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball): Many people have wondered what type of contract Ohtani might have originally commanded if he’d waited two years to jump to Major League Baseball. Because he opted to make the jump at 23 years of age, he was considered an “amateur” under MLB rules and thus limited to the confines of MLB’s international free agent system. Since he’s not also a world class hitter, Yamamoto won’t give us an exact answer to that now-unanswerable Ohtani hypothetical, but he’ll show us what a 25-year-old ace can command under true open-market pricing if and when the Buffaloes post him, as expected.

Yamamoto, 25 in August, is one of the best pitchers in NPB and perhaps one of the most talented arms on the planet. The right-hander made his NPB debut as an 18-year-old rookie in 2017, stepped into the Buffaloes’ rotation full-time in 2019, and has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons, including this year’s current mark of 1.98. The lone exception was 2020, when his ERA ballooned all the way to… ahem, 2.20. Yamamoto has a sub-2.00 ERA in his career, and that’s including the 5.32 mark he posted in that age-18 rookie season.

So far in 2023, Yamamoto has pitched 68 1/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, a 27.8% strikeout rate and a superlative 4.1% walk rate. Just 11 of the 266 batters he’s faced have drawn a free pass. That’s a career-best mark for a pitcher who’s long had outstanding command but has continually whittled away at his walk rate over the years. In his NPB career, Yamamoto has walked just 6.1% of opponents against a 26.5% strikeout rate.

MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski kicked off his latest NPB Players To Watch piece with a look at Yamamoto’s recent run of dominance: a stretch of three consecutive eight-inning starts with just one run allowed and a 29.8% strikeout rate and .092 opponents’ average along the way. World Baseball Classic fans may remember Yamamoto’s performance as well: in 7 1/3 innings he allowed just two runs on four hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts. Back in April, Dai described Yamamoto as the “undisputed ace of NPB,” noting that he’s won the Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) in each of the past two seasons. He also won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins) in 2021-22 and has a chance to repeat the feat in 2023.

Like so many pitchers these days, Yamamoto boasts a mid- to upper-90s heater. Scouts credit him with a potentially plus-plus splitter and give favorable reviews of his curveball and general athleticism as well. Presumably, there’s some trepidation regarding a pitcher who’s listed at just 5’10” and 169 pounds, and whoever signs him will have to pay a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. Those are about the only “red flags” in Yamamoto’s profile.

Yamamoto’s countryman, Kodai Senga, has had some inconsistent command but generally performed well since signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets. In an offseason piece, Joel Sherman of the New York Post quoted an evaluator who graded Yamamoto a full grade better than Senga on the 20-80 scale. And, it bears emphasizing, Yamamoto is five years younger than Senga. We haven’t seen a pitcher with this type of pedigree make the jump from Japan without any spending restrictions since Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees. Yamamoto is younger than Tanaka was, he’s arguably better, and the price of pitching has only gone up since that time. A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.

3. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays: It’s been a tale of two seasons for Chapman, who was perhaps baseball’s best hitter in April and one of its worst in May. The slump has been longer than the hot streak at this point, although the aggregate .265/.343/.457 slash is still well above league average (23% better, by measure of wRC+). Paired with his characteristically excellent defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average already), and Chapman’s still been an undeniably valuable player, even if the nature of his contributions for the Jays have been quite frontloaded in the schedule’s early portion.

That said, it’s still incumbent upon Chapman to turn things around at the plate sooner than later. The weight of that early, Herculean stretch will continually diminish, and the current version of the former All-Star simply isn’t that compelling. Early in the year, Chapman was regularly making blistering contact and had dramatically cut back on his strikeouts. In writing about his brilliant start to the season in early May, I pointed out that he’d begun to let the strikeouts creep back in and wondered whether that was a mere blip or the onset of some regression.

Unfortunately, the strikeout issues that have dogged Chapman in the aftermath of his 2020 hip surgery have resurfaced. Dating back to May 1, Chapman is hitting just .203/.279/.339 with an a 30.2% strikeout rate. He’s still walking at a respectable 8.8% rate, and his quality of contact is excellent. Chapman is averaging 92.4 mph off the bat and hitting the ball at 95 mph or better in 52.7% of his plate appearances even during this prolonged slump. After benefiting from a .449 BABIP early in the year, he’s seen that mark swing down to .269 in May and June.

In all likelihood, the “true” results are somewhere between the two extremes of Chapman’s 2023 season. He’s not the hitter he was in April, but he’s certainly better than he’s been in May and June. The question is whether Chapman can curb the strikeouts moving forward. His propensity for thunderous contact (when he makes it) should lead to some positive regression and once again begin to produce better results. But if he fans at a 30% clip from here on out, there may not be enough balls in play to help him prop his stat line back up. Furthermore, it’d mark the third time in four seasons he finished at or above a 30% strikeout rate, which doesn’t inspire much confidence over the course of a long-term deal.

Chapman still ranks prominently here because the overall numbers are still good, and because, frankly, the crop of position players this offseason is dreadful. In fact, he’s the only pure position player on this installment of our Power Rankings, which is unprecedented. If Chapman can sustain his quality of contact and scale back the strikeouts slightly, he could still find a seven- or eight-year deal heading into his age-31 season. His overall production right now is comparable to the output posted by Kris Bryant in advance of his foray into free agency (which resulted in a seven-year, $182MM contract), and Chapman has far more defensive value than Bryant.

4. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: It’s been a tough start to the year for a number of top free agent pitchers, but Giolito has generally pitched well. His strikeout rate is down from its 33.7% peak, but he’s still fanning more than a quarter of his opponents with his typical brand of better-than-average command (7.5% walk rate). It’s too soon to tell is this is a trend, but it bears mentioning that Giolito has upped his slider usage recently and seen a notable increase in strikeouts. Over his past five starts, he’s thrown the slider at a 35.8% clip, as compared to his prior 28.4% usage rate. It’s not a massive increase, but Giolito had just three starts with a slider rate of 30% or more in his first 11 trips to the hill; since May 30, he’s been between 31.4% and 41.2% in each start. It does seem to mark a clear change in attack plan, and after fanning 23.9% of hitters through those 11 starts, he’s up to 29.4% over his past five.

Giolito’s 93.3 mph average fastball is actually up slightly from 2022’s average of 92.7 mph. Home runs remain an issue (1.36 HR/9), and he’s been a bit more homer-prone on the road than in his hitter-friendly home park this year. That’s not the norm, however; the right-hander has allowed more than 1.5 homers per nine innings in his career at home but is at a much more palatable 1.16 mark on the road.

Giolito’s current 3.41 ERA would mark the fourth time in five seasons that he finished with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. Last year’s 4.90 looks like a clear outlier that was largely fueled by a career-high .340 average on balls in play. (The White Sox, notably, were among the game’s worst defensive teams in 2022.)

As with all free agents, age is crucial. In Giolito’s case, it’ll work in his favor. He’s 28 years old as of this writing and will turn 29 in mid-July. Even a seven-year contract would “only” carry through his age-35 season. It’s also worth noting that he’s been a frequently speculated trade candidate, and if he’s flipped to another club, he’d be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That carries significance in free agency, too.

Giolito might not be an ace, but he’s a surefire playoff starter for any team in Major League Baseball. He’s the second-youngest of the starters on this list with big league experience and has been a workhorse since 2018, ranking 10th among all MLB pitchers with 855 innings pitched in that time. Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) signed similar contracts that began in their age-30 seasons. Neither had a track record as long as Giolito, who’ll be a year younger in his first free agent season. A six- or even seven-year deal could be in play, depending on how he finishes.

5. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers: Urias is among the hardest players to peg among this year’s group. On the one hand, he posted a combined 2.63 ERA over 495 1/3 innings from 2019-22 and is slated to hit the open market in advance of age-27 season — a borderline unprecedentedly young age for a top-end starter to become a free agent. On the other, the lefty has been on the injured list for more than a month owing to a hamstring strain. He didn’t pitch all that well before landing on 15-day IL either. In 55 1/3 innings, Urias worked to a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, thanks primarily to a stunning uptick in home runs allowed; after yielding 0.98 homers per nine frames from ’19-’22, he’s allowed an average of 2.28 homers per nine innings in 2023.

That said, the rest of Urias’ numbers look quite similar to his peak output. His 23.3% strikeout rate is down a bit from the 24.7% he posted in 2019-22, but his 4.8% walk rate is notably better than his already strong 6.3% mark. His fastball velocity is right in line with last year’s level (when Urias notched a 2.16 ERA in 175 innings), as is his 10.8% swinging-strike rate. His 34.1% opponents’ chase rate remains strong.

The primary problem isn’t even an uptick in fly-balls, but rather in the percentage of those fly-balls that leave the yard. Entering the 2022 season, just 9.1% of the fly-balls allowed by Urias had become home runs. This year, it’s a staggering 20.3%. Broadly speaking, homer-to-flyball rate is susceptible to short-term spikes and tends to even out over a larger sample, but the uptick in homers hasn’t been well-timed. That’s doubly true given that for all of Urias’ success, he’s neither the flamethrowing powerhouse nor elite misser of bats that modern front offices covet. He’s succeeded thanks to elite command and by regularly limiting hard contact. Urias’ strikeout rates are typically a bit above average, but he’s never placed higher than the 67th percentile of MLB pitchers in overall strikeout rate.

That’s not to say Urias isn’t a desirable arm or won’t be a highly coveted pitcher. Prior to his injury, the MLBTR team had discussed possible contracts in excess of $200MM for the lefty, based both on his age and recent excellence. That’s perhaps a bit harder to see now, even if the current issue is a leg injury rather than an arm problem. Urias has only twice made 30 starts in a season, and he also has one major shoulder surgery already on his record (a 2017 procedure to repair a capsule tear).

A third consecutive 30-start season would’ve helped set aside a perceived lack of durability, but he won’t get there in 2023, even though he’s expected to return from the injured list as soon as this weekend. That’s not because of any arm troubles to date, and it should be noted that part of the reason for his lack of innings was some extreme workload management post-surgery that looks to have been effective, based on Urias’ 2021-22 results. Still, he hasn’t often worked a full starter’s slate of games, he won’t do it in 2023, and he hasn’t generated his typical results when healthy — even if most of the skill-oriented numbers remain similar to prior levels.

Urias will also have a qualifying offer to contend with, which isn’t true of every pitcher on these rankings. He’s undeniably talented and the clear youngest of the bunch, but it’d be easier to predict a massive long-term deal if he returns and starts producing more like he did in that aforementioned four-year peak.

6. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Speaking of top-tier starters who haven’t performed up to expectations, the 30-year-old Nola finds himself in a precarious position. MLB’s consummate workhorse since his 2015 debut, Nola has pitched the third-most innings of the 2024 pitchers who’ve taken a big league mound since 2016 — his first full season in the Majors. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have topped Nola’s 1256 1/3 innings in that stretch.

For the majority of that time, Nola has operated on the periphery of ace-dom. He’s only a one-time All-Star and has never won a Cy Young, but the former No. 7 overall pick finished third place in 2017, seventh place in 2020 and fourth place just last year. During his 2017-22 peak, Nola notched a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 47.1% ground-ball rate. His 2022 season featured a terrific 29.1% strikeout rate and an elite 3.6% walk rate over the life of 205 innings — the second-most in all of baseball.

That version of Nola has been nowhere to be found in 2023. Through 105 2/3 innings, he’s posted a pedestrian 4.51 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate (23.9%) since his rookie season back in 2015. Nola’s 6.8% walk rate, while still a very strong mark, is his highest since 2020. He’s allowing more fly-balls than ever before, and unsurprisingly is allowing home runs at a career-worst rate (1.45 HR/9).

Fielding-independent metrics still believe Nola’s above-average strikeout rate, strong walk rate and ability to avoid hard contact ought to be translating to better results; his “expected” ERA is 3.53, per Statcast, while tools like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.00) agree he’s been short-changed a bit. Nola’s 65.1% strand rate, in particular, sits about eight percentage points below his career level and below the league average.

Heading into the season, a six- or seven-year deal seemed within reach for one of the game’s most durable and consistently above-average starting pitchers. He’s maintained the “durable” half of that equation, making 17 starts and averaging a hearty 6.22 innings per outing. The results haven’t been there, however, and Nola’s velocity is down about a half mile per hour on most of his pitches. It’s not the platform season he wanted, and even with the so-so results, he’ll surely still have a QO attached to him. There’s still an easy case for a long-term deal here, and a strong second half of the season would quiet a lot of these concerns. To this point, however, Nola has looked more like a mid-rotation starter than someone who’d be fronting a playoff staff.

7. Blake Snell, SP, Padres: Snell has been the best pitcher on the planet for the past month or so, generally erasing a terrible start to the season. This sort of Jekyll & Hyde performance is old hat for the former AL Cy Young winner, who closed out both the 2022 and 2021 seasons in dominant fashion, offsetting a wave of pedestrian starts in each instance. That endorsement of Snell’s past month isn’t even hyperbole; dating back to May 25, Snell has a comical 0.86 ERA with a 66-to-15 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. He’s fanned a massive 44.1% of his opponents against a better-than-average 8.1% walk rate.

Snell’s rollercoaster traits are nothing new, and they may scare some interested suitors in free agency. There’s no skirting the fact that he has a penchant for slow starts to the season, and when Snell is off his game, he can look lost. He doesn’t have pristine command in the first place, and walks become a particularly glaring issue when he’s in a rut. When he’s not as his best, Snell has a tendency to labor through short starts, which can tax a bullpen.

That said, here’s a look at Snell’s past 48 starts: 259 1/3 innings, 3.05 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 0.90 HR/9, 36.9% ground-ball rate, .196 opponents’ average. The road he takes to get there may be infuriating at times, both for fans and his organization’s decision-makers, but Snell has clear top-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s currently riding a streak of four straight starts with double-digit strikeouts, during which he’s yielded just three runs.

The Padres can and very likely will make Snell a qualifying offer. He should reject while giving little, if any thought to the contrary. The qualifying offer and general inconsistency might hurt him, but there will also be teams who look at those factors as a possible avenue to signing a starter with genuine No. 1 talent at a cost that isn’t commensurate with those types of arms. Snell will pitch all of the 2024 season at age 31, and paired with his inconsistency, that might cap him at five years. But he should command $20MM per year over that five-year term, making a nine-figure deal within reach …. barring a second-half collapse that heightens concerns about the fluctuations in his performance.

8. Josh Hader, RP, Padres: Rumors of Hader’s demise as an elite closer last summer were greatly exaggerated, it seems. The four-time All-Star was struggling in the weeks leading up to his trade from Milwaukee to San Diego, and he didn’t help his cause when he allowed a dozen August runs following the swap. That slump was capped off by a six-run drubbing at the hands of a lowly Royals offense.

Since then, it’s been business as usual for Hader. The lefty quietly finished out the year with a 0.79 ERA in his final 11 1/3 innings. He was unscored upon from Sept. 7 through season’s end, and he went on to pitch another 5 1/3 shutout innings in the postseason, fanning 10 hitters in the process. Hader is now sitting on a sparkling 1.26 ERA. His 37.8% strikeout rate isn’t quite as high as his ridiculous 47.8% peak in 2019, but he still ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate.

Since putting that six-run August meltdown against the Royals behind him, here’s Hader’s line (postseason included): 45 1/3 innings, 0.99 ERA, 38% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 29 saves.

Hader will be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the relief pitcher record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. So long as he keeps somewhere near this pace, he’ll take aim at making Diaz’s record short-lived.

9. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs: Stroman’s three-year, $71MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year this offseason. In doing so, he’d leave $21MM on the table, but there’s little doubt he’d be able to topple that mark in free agency. Stroman has already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive a second one. He’s also the current MLB leader in bWAR (3.5) and third in the Majors in RA9-WAR (also 3.5). Through 102 innings, Stroman touts a 2.47 ERA and a 59.3% grounder rate that’s second only to Logan Webb among all qualified pitchers.

Good as Stroman’s results are, there’s some reason to be a bit skeptical on his earning power. He can surely outpace the $21MM he’d leave on the table by opting out, likely securing another multi-year deal in free agency. That said, Stroman’s profile hasn’t really changed since his last foray into the open market. He still has a below-average strikeout rate, and the lower-than-average walk rate he had last time around has crept up to about league average in 2023. He’s inducing more grounders than he has since 2018, but the primary reason for the drop in his ERA has been a career-low home run rate. Just 8.3% of the fly-balls allowed by Stroman have been homers — well shy of his 13.5% career mark.

Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples — Stroman was between 12.6% and 13.9% every year from 2018-22, for instance — so teams might essentially view him as the same pitcher he was in the 2021-22 offseason, just a couple years older. One factor working in Stroman’s favor is that the price of pitching has increased since then; Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all helped advance that market last offseason. Bassitt’s three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays should be of particular note. He secured that contract despite being hit with a QO that Stroman won’t have to contend with, and did so heading into his age-34 season. Next year will be Stroman’s age-33 season. He should at least be able to secure a three-year deal at a larger AAV than Bassitt received. A four-year deal with an AAV north of $20MM is also possible.

10. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals: Montgomery had a pair of rough starts in the season’s first six weeks, allowing seven and six runs in that pair of outings and ballooning his ERA in the process. Things have largely evened out though, and Montgomery’s numbers look just as solid as they did when he was establishing himself as a mid-rotation hurler in the Bronx, Through 92 innings, he’s posted a 3.52 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 46.6% grounder rate that all line up neatly with his 2021-22 production.

Montgomery pitched just 31 1/3 big league innings in 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery and struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign upon his return from that operation. Since Opening Day 2021, however, he carries a 3.66 ERA and matching secondary marks (3.61 FIP, 3.88 SIERA) in 421 innings. If the Cardinals don’t trade Montgomery, he’ll be a natural qualifying offer candidate. He’d very likely reject that one-year offer in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Montgomery isn’t an ace, but the market rewarded both Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Walker (four years, $72MM) with four-year contracts last winter. Neither had a QO attached to him, but Montgomery, who’ll turn 31 in December, has a better recent track record than both pitchers as well.

Of course, if the Cardinals remain out of the postseason hunt in late July, Montgomery will be a sought-after trade candidate. A trade to another club would render him ineligible to receive a QO. Even if the Cardinals hang onto him and make him a QO, he’ll still reach free agency in search of a comparable or even larger deal than the ones signed by Taillon, Walker and Bassitt. As with Stroman, it’s worth noting that Bassitt was older in free agency than Montgomery will be (by a margin of three years in Montgomery’s case).

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Shota Imanaga, Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Max Scherzer (player option), Jorge Soler (player option)

NPB Players To Watch: June

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It’s time for an update on NPB players who may be making their way to MLB in the near future. Here are the eight players that we are keeping track of at MLBTR. More details about their play styles and background are in the first article.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

In the May update, I wrote that Yamamoto had yet to have his signature outing of the 2023 season, and since then he’s posted three consecutive gems. Yamamoto tossed eight innings in all three starts, allowing just one run and holding hitters to .092, while fanning 29.8% of them.

The 24-year-old right-hander now has a 1.59 ERA on the season, striking out 28.3% of hitters while walking just 4.6% and holding hitters to .188 in 62 ⅓ innings. 

Yamamoto faces stiff competition from Sasaki for most strikeouts, but a third consecutive Pacific League Triple Crown (ERA, Wins, Ks) is definitely within reach.

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

The 29-year-old left-hander is back to looking like the Yokohama Baystars ace after a rough May. In his last four starts, Imanaga has a 2.32 ERA, striking out 23.3% of hitters and walking 4.3%. 

On the season, Imanaga has a 2.78 ERA, 26.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, and keeping hitters to a .225 batting average in 55 innings. The lefty struggles with the long ball at times (giving up eight in May), but regularly pitches deep into games, only failing to throw seven innings twice.

Imanaga positioned himself for an MLB move in 2023 by signing with a new agency last December. Given his strong track record in both NPB and international competitions, multiple teams should be showing interest in Imanaga this offseason.

3. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

After a blistering start to the season, Takahashi has hit somewhat of a rough patch, with a 3.46 ERA in his last four starts. The 26-year-old right-hander is still tied for the Pacific League lead in ERA among qualified pitchers with a 2.11 mark.

On the season, the Lions’ ace is striking out 21% of hitters and holding them to .215, while walking 7.3% in 81 total innings. 

According to Nikkan Gendai, an MLB scout said that Takahashi’s improvement has been a pleasant surprise. “He did not know how to pace himself before, so he’d be tired by around 80 pitches. Since last season, he’s balanced out his delivery and pace. With his frame at 6’2-6’3 and 231 lbs and the combination of an upper 90s fastball and splitter, barring any setbacks, multiple MLB teams should show interest in the offseason.”

4. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer is as reliable as ever, with a 0.77 ERA, 38.8 K%, and 14 saves in 24 appearances in 2023. 

An overseas free agent this offseason, Matsui has not clearly stated his intentions for a move to MLB this offseason outside of vague comments made earlier in his career. 

Interestingly, he has made some changes this season that may be signaling a potential move.

He has mostly relied on his four-seam, splitter, and slider in his career, but this season he has cut down his slider usage and heavily increased the usage of his splitter. Given that the ability to throw splitters is highly valued in MLB, this could very well be him showcasing MLB front offices that his stuff will translate to the big leagues. 

There is certainly a need across the league for left-handed relievers with strikeout ability, and Matsui may be an interesting option. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

The 29-year-old right-hander has bounced back from a nightmarish start to the season and is back to looking like an ace for the Fighters. In his last four starts since the previous NPB update, Uwasawa has a 1.74 ERA in 31 innings, striking out 20.8% of hitters and holding them to a .158 batting average, while walking 6.7%. 

Stuff-wise, Uwasawa lags behind the other players on the list and profiles similar to former Fighters teammate and former Rangers starting pitcher Kohei Arihara. He faces an uphill battle to earn an MLB contract, but he seems intent on taking on the challenge anyway. Maintaining his current form and finishing the season below a 2.50 ERA would definitely improve his chances.

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki has come down to earth a little bit after a 1.00 ERA in April and 1.64 ERA in May. In his last four starts, Sasaki has a 3.24 ERA and two losses. The ‘Monster of Reiwa’ still has a 1.89 ERA on the season, striking out hitters at an unfathomable 40.4% rate and holding them to .146 while walking just 5.6%.

While Sasaki has unquestionable stuff and strikeout ability, building up the stamina to handle a full season workload is the next step in his development. Marines manager Masato Yoshii said that he might skip Sasaki’s next start, saying that he looked tired. Sasaki usually throws on six days of rest this season. Unless he makes a surprise request to be posted, Sasaki has a couple of season to improve that area of his game. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

The reigning Triple Crown winner looks more like himself in June, slashing .291/.418/.455 in 67 plate appearances. On the season, Murakami has a .233/.317/.419 line with a .789 OPS and 11 homers, a disappointing follow-up to his historic 2022 season.

Murakami is striking out on a horrendous 32% of at-bats, and his NPB-worst 89 total strikeouts is 22 more than the next closest at 67 strikeouts. He still has a strong walk rate at 16.5%, but is simply not making good contact.

Murakami is especially struggling to hit velocity, hitting just .083 against fastballs thrown harder than 150 km/h (93.75 mph). and is also struggling to hit righties, hitting just .180. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

A newcomer on this list, Okamoto has been one of the best hitters in NPB who is enjoying a career season. Some of you may remember him for his solo homer that extended Team Japan’s lead over Team USA in the WBC Final.

The 6’1, 220lb slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. Okamoto was the youngest player in NPB to post a .300, 30HR, 100 RBI season. He led the Central League in homers and RBIs in back-to-back seasons in 2020 and 2021, 

The soon-to-be 27-year-old corner infielder is hitting .322/.414/.597 with 17 homers, 42 RBIs and an OPS of 1.010 in 2o23. He would be in prime position for the Triple Crown in any other season if it wasn’t for Toshiro Miyazaki and his .372 batting average. 

In comparison to Murakami, Okamoto hits for less average and walks less. Okamoto has hit over .300 just once in his career, and has a 10.5% career BB% compared to Murakami’s 16.5%. Okamoto plays average defense at third base and has taken first base and left field reps this year. 

Okamoto has hinted at some interest in a potential MLB move, but there is nothing concrete yet. He isn’t set to be a free agent for four years, his age-31 season. The Giants are traditionally against the posting system, so it remains to be seen whether or not he will request a move before that.

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Tatsuya Imai, Seibu Lions; Takahisa Hayakawa, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Atsuki Taneichi, Chiba Lotte Marines

 

NPB Watch: May Edition

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It’s time for an update on NPB players who may be making their way to MLB in the near future. Here are the seven players that we are keeping track of at MLBTR. Learn more about their play styles and background in the previous article.

Let’s get started.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

The two-time Pacific League MVP has had a “slow” start to the season by his standards. Yamamoto has been consistent and his numbers are as solid as ever, with a 2.35 ERA, 27.6 K%, 6.4 BB%, 2.15 FIP in 38 ⅓ innings, but he’s yet to have the signature performance of the season. 

For reference, the Buffaloes ace’s best month last season was June, with a 0.56 ERA in four starts, most notably tossing his first career no-hitter. 

Yamamoto was scratched from his planned start this past weekend due to illness but has not been limited by injury thus far, despite concerns. 

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

In five starts, Imanaga has a 3.48 ERA, 28.4 K%, and 1.6 BB% in 31 innings. The Baystars ace was off to a hot start to the season, tossing 8 innings of shutout ball in his season debut and following it up with a 7-inning shutout performance where he struck out 12. He’s struggled in the following two starts, however, giving up four runs in five innings and five runs in four innings respectively, and allowing a total of four homers. 

In his most recent start this past weekend, Imanaga had a solid performance against the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, allowing three runs in seven innings. The three runs came from two home runs, however, so the long ball continues to be an issue for the left-hander in the early going. 

Imanaga officially earned his domestic free-agent rights on May 19, but remains focused on the season. “I never thought I’d be in this position to earn this [free agency], and I want to give back to everyone who has been a part of my journey,’ Imanaga said. 

3. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi has had an impressive start to the year. In his eight starts, the Lions ace has an NPB-best 1.47 ERA, holding hitters to a .182 average, striking out 22.9% of hitters and walking 13.6%, in 55 innings. The biggest factor in his improvement is increased average fastball velocity, which has gone up to 94 mph, compared to 91.56 mph last season. His splitter has been the perfect complement to his improved fastball, hitters are only .068 against it. 

Beyond his elite numbers, Takahashi’s strong mentality and his pride as the Lions’ ace have particularly stood out. After his most recent start where he tossed six innings of shutout ball, Takahashi said, “I wanted to be on the mound longer than the opposing pitcher. In order to continue improving, I will reflect on this start so that I can go even deeper into games.”

He outdueled Yamamoto in their April 22 matchup, holding the Buffaloes to two runs and five hits in a complete game. He almost outdueled Yamamoto again on May 6, exiting the game after six innings of one-run ball, but the bullpen was unable to keep the lead. 

Takahashi has certainly met the challenge from GM Watanabe and Manager Kazuo Matsui thus far

4. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

Became the fastest pitcher in NPB to reach 200 career saves earlier in the season. The Golden Eagles closer has been dominant as ever and has not allowed an earned run in his 12 appearances. He has 6 saves on the season, and hitters are hitting just .095 against him. The lefty hasn’t gotten much work as other relievers so far, as the Eagles have the second-worst record in NPB and sit in last place in the Pacific League. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas Free Agent rights on April 27. “It’s still April, so there’s not much to think about,” Matsui said in a statement.

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

After a nightmarish start to the season, Uwasawa has settled down and is finding his groove. In his last four starts, he’s completed at least 7 innings and has a 2.35 ERA in 30 ⅔ innings. The Fighters right-hander has a 3.72 ERA on the season, striking out 17.9% of hitters and walking 10.8% in 46 innings. 

In his most recent start, the 29-year-old right-hander tossed his first shutout since 2018 against the Saitama Seibu Lions, where he fanned 9 and allowed just 4 hits. 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

The “Monster of Reiwa” is off to a dominant start, posting a 0.84 ERA, fanning 43.5% of hitters while walking just 4.3%. Hitters are only hitting .124 against him, and he has a FIP of 0.65. 

He’s been sidelined since his May 5 start where he exited in the 5th inning because of a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand. He was initially scheduled to pitch on May 21 but was pushed back to May 28, after the starting rotation was reshuffled by a rain-out. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

The young Swallows slugger had a disastrous first month of the season. In 25 games, he hit  .157/.311/.265, 2 HR, 15.5 BB%, 37.9 K%, and 12 RBI in 103 plate appearances. Murakami-sama is beginning to look more like his Triple-Crown winning self in May, hitting .278/.381/.556, 4 HR, 14.3 BB%, 23.8 K%, and 10 RBI in 63 plate appearances (as of May 19). 

One of the major factors in Murakami’s early season slump is his struggle to hit right-handed pitching. Murakami is hitting a measly .169 against right-handed pitching, and striking out at a 37.7% rate. The slump is also affecting his already sub-par defense at third base where he has 8 errors, the most out of all position players in NPB. 

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Kazuma Okamoto, Corner Infielder, Yomiuri Giants; Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita (NEW!), Orix Buffaloes; Tatsuya Imai (NEW!), Seibu Lions; Takahisa Hayakawa (NEW!), Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Atsuki Taneichi (NEW!), Chiba Lotte Marines

 

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