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Yoenis Cespedes

NL East Notes: Cespedes, Ng, Marlins, Nationals

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Scouts are buzzing over Yoenis Cespedes, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, but not necessarily over his power. Some clocked Cespedes at 3.9 seconds from home plate to first base in beating out a grounder to Jimmy Rollins in Game 3 of the NLDS, Heyman writes, and that burst of elite speed just serves as a demonstration of the rare blend of power and quickness he brings to the table. One anonymous GM from a club not expected to pursue Cespedes told Heyman he expects the outfielder to land a contract in the vicinity of $150MM over a six-year term. The Mets have never spent at that level, but Heyman notes that despite having a stable outfield situation, the team very much wants to retain him.

A few more notes from the NL East as the Mets begin preparation for a decisive Game 5 in the NLDS after falling to Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers 3-1 in Game 4…

  • Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer opines that Kim Ng is the best fit for the Phillies’ general manager vacancy. Brookover spoke to bench coach Larry Bowa, who knows Ng well from his time working for the Yankees and Dodgers while she was an assistant GM in those organizations. Bowa spoke highly about Ng’s baseball acumen, and Brookover notes that having worked in front offices and for the league’s central offices dating back to 1991, Ng would have a wide base of connections from which to draw when making scouting and baseball operations hires.
  • MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro provides a breakdown of the Marlins’ managerial search, outlining five factors to keep an eye on as the process plays out. Frisaro backs up recent reports that owner Jeffrey Loria is particularly interested in Don Mattingly, but there’s no indication yet that he’ll be dismissed from the Dodgers, and if he’s not, the Dodgers would seek compensation to allow him to go to Miami. Frisaro also looks at the possible implications for the coaching staff and emphasizes that the Marlins will seek prior managing experience in any candidates.
  • While the Nationals have a nice core in place, there’s at least somewhat of a split opinion on whether or not the team should continue trying to put together a winner this offseason or embark on somewhat of a rebuild, sources from the team’s board of directors and front office tell ESPN’s Jim Bowden (ESPN Insider subscription required). Bowden opines that a bat to complement Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup, a proven starter (even with Joe Ross likely able to step into the rotation) and sorting out the Jonathan Papelbon/Drew Storen mess should top the Nats’ priority list this winter.

New York Notes: Warthen, Severino, Prado, Gardner

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Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen was overworked early in his career, writes Tim Rohan of the New York Times. Warthen figured he had torn his UCL back in 1975, but Tommy John had only received his eponymous surgery in 1974. Major league players were paid very little at the time so Warthen couldn’t afford the surgery or a year away from baseball. Instead he worked through the injury and his career ended a few years later at the age of 25. Of course, now it’s his job to make sure his young pitching staff remains healthy and productive for years to come.

Here’s more from that other New York club:

  • The Yankees were right to keep top prospect Luis Severino, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. Severino was one name discussed with the Tigers for David Price. Notably, Price is now 0-6 in six postseason starts with a 5.23 ERA. Scouts believe Severino will soon be the Yankees ace, and he’s under club control for another six seasons. Per one scout, “If you’re talking six or seven years for Price…I’d take Severino anyway.“
  • GM Brian Cashman was loathe to part with Martin Prado in the offseason trade for Nathan Eovaldi, per Harper. His versatility and ability to match up against hard throwing left-handed pitching would have been useful for the club. The Marlins have him under club control for the 2016 season, but the Yankees are already paying $3MM of his $11MM contract. Personally, I see a swap for Prado as a worthy alternative to free agent Ben Zobrist.
  • After a miserable second half, the Yankees may consider trading Brett Gardner, suggests Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Gardner has a similar skill set to leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, but both players disappeared in the second half of the season. If Gardner were to be traded, it could open the door for a power bat like Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes. One scout opined that an early season wrist injury and late season shoulder soreness could have affected Gardner’s play. He’s owed $36MM through 2018 with a $12.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout). He’ll also be paid a $1MM assignment bonus if traded.

Marlins Rumors: Cueto, Leake, Cespedes

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In his Sunday column, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald has a number of noteworthy Marlins items.  Here’s a look at some of the highlights..

Quick Hits: Zito, Giants, Cespedes, Stearns

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Barry Zito tossed an inning in the Athletics’ 5-1 loss to the Astros today, marking his first Major League appearance since 2013.  It wasn’t exactly a triumphant return (Zito allowed a hit, a walk and a two-run homer to Colby Rasmus in his one inning) but it still represented a milestone for the veteran southpaw, who worked his way back to the Show after sitting out 2014 and spending most of this season at Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate.  Here’s more from around the game as we begin a new week…

  • David Stearns was involved in all facets of baseball operations as the Astros’ assistant GM, which Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets was one of the many reasons why the Brewers wanted him as their new general manager.  Stearns’ multi-tasking ability made him the ideal choice as Jeff Luhnow’s lone second-in-command in Houston, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle notes that many teams have multiple assistant GMs who oversee different departments.  Stearns’ departure, therefore, leaves the Astros with a big hole to fill.  The Astros have several highly-touted members of the organization who could potentially be promoted to assistant GM, and Drellich notes that promoting from within could help the Astros retain these front office talents before they’re lured away by other clubs.
  • There is some thought in rival front offices that the Giants could bid on Yoenis Cespedes this winter, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Insider subscription required).  Cespedes would likely be deployed in left, though some time in center field wouldn’t be out of the question if the Giants wanted to keep him playing every day while also finding time for Angel Pagan and Nori Aoki (assuming Aoki is brought back).  It could be a moot point, however, as Olney wonders if Cespedes’ demands for a six-year deal are too rich for the Giants’ liking.
  • From that same piece, a rival executive told Olney “the Giants are the quickest fix” of any of the non-playoff teams.  While San Francisco has some clear needs in the rotation, they have a lot of payroll coming off the books as well as a solid core of proven veterans and controllable younger players.
  • Like most GMs, Alex Anthopoulos uses both analytical and scouting data to inform his decisions, and he gave a bit of insight to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about which methods were used in some recent Blue Jays transactions.  Edwin Encarnacion and Dioner Navarro may have been more inspired by scouting reports, whereas Justin Smoak may have been more of an analytics call.  Both departments endorsed signing Jose Bautista to an extension in February 2011, a contract that has been a major bargain for the Jays.
  • Also from Laurila’s piece, he spoke with Mark Melancon about his development into a star closer with the Pirates after an unsuccessful stint with the Red Sox.  Melancon credits ex-teammate Russell Martin with encouraging him to use his cutter more, and he admitted that he’s satisfied that he was able to prove to his critics in Boston (both within the fanbase and the organization) that he indeed has “the closer mentality.”

Quick Hits: Walker, Cespedes, Gyorko

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The Pirates may say goodbye to second baseman Neil Walker after the season, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittburgh Tribune-Review. He’s set to earn at least $10MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Due to a balky back and the availability of Jung-ho Kang, Jordy Mercer, and Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh may prefer to commit that money to another position. Of course, the Pirates will probably never reach the point of actually non-tendering Walker. Plenty of teams should be interested in a one-year flier on the 30-year-old. Biertempfel offers a fascinating look at Walker who is actually a Pittsburgh native. It’s well worth a read.

  • Pittsburgh should actually extend Walker, opines Rob Rossi of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Rossi refers to Walker as a fan favorite and lauds his clubhouse presence. Rossi suggests a four-year, $47MM contract as a reasonable compromise. Of course, the notoriously penurious club does have a wealth of affordable middle infield depth with Kang, Harrison, and Mercer on the roster. Prospect Alen Hanson is also close to major league ready. Presumably, Walker could return a decent player via trade too. While it’s tough to part with a hometown fan favorite, sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
  • A hot October could lead Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to his desired six-year contract, writes Mark Townsend of Yahoo. While teams may be concerned about offering a big guarantee through his age 36 season, they may be willing to swallow the risk if they can bank on production early in the contract. Of course, no player is a sure thing to repeat past exploits. Postseason success would certainly go a long way towards assuaging any doubts. I said the same earlier tonight when examining the players who most improved their free agent stock.
  • The Padres are pleased with Jedd Gyorko’s development at shortstop, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. The Friars began the experiment to keep both Cory Spangenberg and Gyorko in the lineup. While there is obviously concern about his defense, his offense easily ranks among the best at the position. Advanced statistics like UZR aren’t a fan of his work, but a one month sample is way too small to form a judgment. He hasn’t committed an error and makes all the routine plays. A NL West scout even suggested that he looks more comfortable at short than second. If the club thinks he can continue to man the position in 2016, it could save them from scrounging through the free agent shortstop market.

Most Improved Free Agent Stock

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It may be premature to talk about the most improved free agent stock – after all it’s mid-September. We still have two weeks left in the regular season. More importantly, the playoffs can be a massive boon to October’s top performers. Big numbers on the biggest stage are often parlayed into bigger paydays. For now, let’s just make do with what we know.

When thinking about the players who most improved their stock, there are two angles we can consider. Some players entered the season with sky high expectations. All they had to do was get through the current campaign at a level similar to their career rates to ensure a free agent windfall. David Price and Zack Greinke have outdone themselves and could be in line to earn even more than originally conjectured.

Price, 30, has long been viewed as a reliable left-handed ace. He’s largely matched his terrific 2014 campaign, and he’s turned up the gas since joining the Blue Jays. Prior to the season, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked him as the third best free agent with a chance to reach $200MM. A minor injury or lackluster season could have easily pushed him down closer to $100MM. Dierkes’ most recent update to the power rankings has Price as the top free agent with a realistic chance to exceed Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM pact with the Dodgers. As an added bonus, Price won’t come with a qualifying offer attached since he was traded at the deadline.

While it was clear that 31-year-old Greinke would opt out of his contract with the Dodgers (assuming health), the success he has enjoyed was not wholly expected. Projection systems tabbed Greinke for around a 3.00 ERA this year. Instead, he’s worked to a 1.65 ERA through 30 starts. Home run suppression and a .231 BABIP have helped matters, but his dominance has allowed him to crawl out from under Kershaw’s shadow. Prior to the season, Dierkes thought another typical season from Greinke could get him $100MM in new money. Now he thinks Greinke could exceed Jon Lester’s six-year, $155MM deal.

Another pair of soon-to-be free agents may have increased their value by nearly nine figures this year. In a monetary sense, these are the clear victors of the most improved stock game. Neither slugger was a consensus top free agent prior to the season, but they’ll certainly be treated like royalty in a few months.

First baseman Chris Davis entered the year as an enigma. After a 53 home run campaign in 2013, Davis followed with a miserable 2014 season. For what it’s worth, I expected 2015 production somewhere around the mid-point between the two platform years. The 29-year-old has definitely exceeded that by a wide margin. Back in February, Dierkes considered Davis as an also-ran for the top 10 free agents list (along with Steve Pearce, Doug Fister, and Mat Latos among others). Now he’s fourth in the power rankings. Dierkes believes a seven-year deal worth more than $140MM is well within reach. I agree.

Right there with Davis is Yoenis Cespedes. Like Davis, he missed Dierkes’ top 10 before the season. Now he’s fifth and in a virtual tie with Davis. Dierkes projects the same seven-year contract of more than $20MM per season for Cespedes. The outfielder will turn 30 in a month and has reached new career heights with 35 home runs. His acquisition by the Mets is a big part of their current success. He’s in a bit of a mini-slump going 0-for-17 over his last four games. A slow end to the season and playoffs could remind buyers of his previous production. Alternatively, a noisy postseason could propel him past Davis.

This all begs the question – who most improved their stock? Is it the star who has all-but-secured a $200MM payday? The aging ace who’ll receive another massive contract? Or is it one of the surging sluggers?

Cespedes Seeks Free Agent Contract Of 6+ Years

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Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes said today that he will look for six or more guaranteed years in the free agent contract he signs this winter, as Marly Rivera of ESPN Deports reports (Twitter link).

Cespedes has, of course, greatly improved his open market value with a very good first half and an outstanding run down the stretch in New York. All told, he owns a .294/.330/.555 slash with 35 home runs in 624 plate appearances on the year.

That is all but certain to represent the most impressive platform year among soon-to-be free agent corner outfielders. There’s still plenty of competition, of course, as both Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are younger and arguably have better prior overall track records. But Cespedes isn’t exactly old — he’ll turn thirty in October — and has every chance of cashing in on a significant contract right alongside those players.

All told, it’s far from surprising to hear that Cespedes hopes to get six or more seasons on his next deal. There’s ample precedent, in fact, for even more. Players like Shin-soo Choo, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth are among those outfielders who have taken down seven years (and well over $100MM) in open-market deals.

It doesn’t hurt that Cespedes is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, while both Heyward and Upton — to say nothing of Alex Gordon and perhaps some others in the next tier of the market — will almost certainly be tied to draft compensation. That’s a relatively minor consideration at that level of the market, but could move the needle somewhat.

And, of course, Cespedes will be free to re-sign with the Mets after tweaking his deal with the team. Whether or not a return to New York is likely, the club will surely feel pressure at least to engage in a hearty pursuit of its newfound star, and that can only help his market situation.

If you’re interested in hearing a bit more on where Cespedes stands at this early stage, check out the analysis of Steve Adams and myself in a recent edition of the MLBTR Podcast.

NL East Notes: Cespedes, Olivera, Phillies

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Yoenis Cespedes has been surprised with by the overwhelming manner in which Mets fans have embraced him, he told the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff on Wednesday, and the slugging outfielder is open to a return to the Mets in free agency. Cespedes called his time with the Mets thus far the best of his Major League career because of his production, the team’s overall play and the fact that as it stands, New York is playoff-bound. Cespedes revealed to Davidoff that he was the one who instructed his agents to approach the team about removing the contractual clause that would’ve only given the Mets five days to re-sign him this offseason. Cespedes admitted to Davidoff that he knew little about the Mets before being traded there, and it was news to him that the Mets hadn’t reached the playoffs since 2006. “This year will be the next time,” Cespedes confidently told Davidoff. Cespedes also spoke to Davidoff about his decision to sign with Jay-Z’s startup agency, Roc Nation Sports, last offseason, although he didn’t get into specific details about the switch.

Here’s more from the NL East…

  • Former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski spoke with ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes about the trade that sent Cespedes to the Mets, providing some insight into the final day of the non-waiver trade season. Dombrowski received an 8am phone call from Mets GM Sandy Alderson expressing serious interest in Cespedes after the Carlos Gomez trade fell through, he told Edes. His response was that Michael Fulmer would be the Tigers’ top target in talks, and Alderson replied that he’d keep in touch. At 1:30pm, Dombrowski received permission from Tigers owner Mike Ilitch to go ahead with a trade only if the return included the prospects atop Detroit’s list; there’d be no take-what-you-can-get scenario. Had their price not been met, “[W]e would’ve kept him,” said Dombrowski. Alderson had been told by Dombrowski that the Tigers would need to hear definitively within 15 minutes of the deadline, as a trade involving Cespedes would need commissioner approval due to his unique contract, and the final call conceding Fulmer was (obviously) made in time to complete the swap.
  • The Braves are easing Hector Olivera into things early in his big league career, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Atlanta believes that Olivera will be in a better position to succeed in 2016 after playing winter ball in Puerto Rico and benefiting from a full Spring Training, so for the time being, they’re willing to give him a couple of nights off per week as he adjusts to life as a Major Leaguer. That’s less likely to be the case following this season, when Olivera will be counted on as a key fixture in the middle of the lineup.
  • Though Ruben Amaro Jr.’s tenure as Phillies GM hasn’t produced the results the organization hoped for when Pat Gillick stepped aside in 2008, former president David Montgomery believes that Amaro deserves respect for the work he put in over the years, writes Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Amaro took the blame for a good deal of the Phillies’ misfortunes, but Montgomery notes that the decision to continue acting in a win-now capacity stretched beyond Amaro. “We pushed it hard,” said Montgomery. “We were all involved in it, and I’ve said that many times, as far as trying to get one more after we got ’08. We were all in. We knew the risk. We knew the risk that when you trade your near-ready minor leaguers, there’s going to be a dip.”

East Notes: Williams, Cespedes, Boxberger, Kelly, Tazawa

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Star Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper provided a ringing endorsement for embattled skipper Matt Williams, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports. “Truly, I love him as a manager,” said Harper. “Flat out I absolutely do. If I didn’t, everybody would know.” Player sentiment only goes so far, of course, but the comments do seem particularly meaningful with Harper set to finish off a compelling, breakout season as one of the lone bright spots on a disappointing team.

Here’s more from the eastern divisions:

  • While there was a report yesterday that the Braves could have interest in Yoenis Cespedes as a free agent, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution hears (Twitter link) that the team has no such intentions. As I noted at the time, that match seemed curious on paper not because Cespedes wouldn’t be an appealing target for the team — he would — but because his price tag seems likely to move quickly into a range that the Braves would not find palatable.
  • Rays closer Brad Boxberger says that his recent struggles may be the result of inconsistent usage earlier in the year, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Another strong campaign from Boxberger, 27, has started to trend downward in recent weeks, and he said that could be due to “all of the early use in non-closing situations.” While Boxberger says he does not want to place blame on the team’s lack of a designated closer role — which he has filled, de facto, for much of the year — he obviously seemed to suggest that as a possibility. Boxberger will still be a season away from reaching arbitration eligibility after this year, though his saves tally this year will set him up for a big payday thereafter — if he can remain healthy and effective.
  • Red Sox righty Joe Kelly has flipped the narrative on his season, but as Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com reports, he may have thrown his last pitch of 2015. While that decision has yet to be made, the 26-year-old exited his outing last night with shoulder tightness — obviously not an area that the team will want to take any chances at the tail end of a lost season. Kelly’s solid late-year results have surely given nsew president of baseball operations plenty to think about in planning next seasons rotation.
  • Another Red Sox right-hander, reliever Junichi Tazawa, has already been declared shut down for the rest of the year, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal reports. The move is not related to any injury, says interim manager Torey Lovullo. Instead, Boston wants to avoid too much stress on the 29-year-old’s arm after he topped sixty frames in each of the last two years. The steady Tazawa has faded down the stretch this year after a typically strong first half. He’ll enter his final year of arbitration in the offseason.

East Notes: Cespedes, Hutchison, Parmelee

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The Mets faced a tough last-minute decision on Yoenis Cespedes, as Tim Rohan of the New York Times details in an interesting story on the key deadline addition. GM Sandy Alderson decided to pull the trigger, parting with well-regarded young pitcher Michael Fulmer, after a somewhat nerve-wracking meeting with the organization’s key decisionmakers. You’ll want to give this one a full read if you’re interested in the subject. It also includes some discussion of the complicated matter of whether the team will make a real go at re-signing the streaking outfielder.

Here are a few more notes from the game’s eastern divisions:

  • The Blue Jays will utilize righty Drew Hutchison out of the bullpen for the rest of the year, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweets. He’ll be used as a one-inning reliever down the stretch. It remains to be seen whether the 25-year-old will crack the postseason roster as a pen arm, but there’s not much time left for the year to be anything but a disappointment. Hutchison owns a 5.33 ERA in 147 innings, which won’t create quite the arbitration platform he might have hoped for heading into his first season of eligibility.
  • Orioles outfielder/first baseman Chris Parmelee will need surgery to repair a broken left forearm that he suffered recently, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (Twitter links). Baltimore hopes to re-sign the 27-year-old, who saw relatively minimal time at the big league level but put up good numbers at Triple-A. He’ll be looking at another minor league deal, of course.
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