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Yoenis Cespedes

Mets Rule Out Yoenis Cespedes

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If the door was cracked open even a little bit before for Yoenis Cespedes to re-sign with the Mets, it now appears to have been slammed shut.  The Mets are still looking to add a right-handed hitting outfielder, but it won’t be Cespedes, sources familiar with their thinking tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

The Mets are heading into 2016 with lefty bats in left field (Michael Conforto), right field (Curtis Granderson) and first base (Lucas Duda) and they’re eyeing right-handed bats as a complement to that, including Steve Pearce and others of that ilk, according to Heyman.  Of course, it’s not a huge surprise to hear that the Mets are moving on from Cespedes after their recent signing of Alejandro De Aza.

At some point this winter, the Mets offered a short term deal of perhaps “two or three” years for the Cuban slugger, sources tell Heyman.  Interestingly enough, they never got around to discussing dollars.  As Heyman notes, that probably wouldn’t have moved the needle one way or another anyway since Cespedes is widely expected to net a five- or six-year deal.  At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Cespedes would net a six-year, $140MM deal.

Right now, it’s not immediately clear where Cespedes could land.  The Orioles and Angels have been linked to Cespedes, with the Tigers, Royals and Giants also being involved.  The White Sox have also been mentioned as a possible suitor for the Roc Nation client as they have a need in left field.

Quick Hits: Soler, Lucroy, Swanson, Chen

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In a radio interview on The 670 Score’s “Inside The Clubhouse” show, Theo Epstein said the Cubs are committed to Jorge Soler as a big part of their roster, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports.  “We are putting our stock into his future,” Epstein said.  “Barring anything [an overwhelming trade offer], he knows to ignore all the trade rumors and take it as a compliment.”  Epstein praised Soler’s hitting potential and his offseason training, as Soler “is down to 225 [pounds] and is working hard on his quickness and flexibility” to improve his right field defense.  The Cubs could add a defense-first backup outfielder, Epstein hinted, which probably isn’t a surprise given Soler’s inexperience and the questions about whether or not Kyle Schwarber can handle left field.  Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • The Brewers don’t want to sell low on Jonathan Lucroy in the wake of his underwhelming 2015 season, though they could be taking a risk by waiting to make a trade, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes in a piece for FOX Sports.  If Lucroy’s concussion and injury history continues to diminish his ability, Milwaukee will have missed its window to recoup significant value for the former All-Star.  Midseason deals for catchers are also somewhat uncommon, as it’s somewhat hard for a new catcher to instantly develop a rapport with pitchers.
  • The Braves targeted Dansby Swanson even before they created room at short by dealing Andrelton Simmons, GM John Coppolella tells Fangraphs’ David Laurila.  “We’ve been in talks with Arizona since the end of the 2015 season,” Coppolella said. “We hoped to get Swanson, but we didn’t know if, or how, the deal would materialize. We saw him as a fit for us, whether we made the Simmons trade or not. We just want really good players and he’s a really good player.”
  • Wei-Yin Chen may have the most value of any remaining free agent pitcher, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes, as he has posted comparable numbers to Jeff Samardzija or Jordan Zimmermann and probably won’t cost as much.  Of course, Chen and his agent Scott Boras are looking for healthy compensation for the southpaw’s services in the form of a five-year, $100MM contract.
  • While opt-out clauses are usually considered to provide little benefit to a team, the Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber notes that there’s certainly upside if a club can avoid paying big money to a player outside of his prime years.  For instance, Lauber reports that had the Red Sox been successful in obtaining Alex Rodriguez from the Rangers in the 2003-04 offseason, they had no intention of re-signing him after he opted out of his deal (as expected) after the 2007 season.  The Yankees, who did deal for A-Rod and then re-signed him to a whopping 10-year, $275MM contract after 2007, have surely regretted not letting Rodriguez walk when they had the chance.
  • Blue Jays director of analytics Joe Sheehan is profiled by the Toronto Star’s Brendan Kennedy, who notes that Sheehan’s promotion to the newly-created position is a sign of the team’s increased focus on analytics under Mark Shapiro.
  • The Giants are the most likely team to sign Yoenis Cespedes, MLB.com’s Jim Duquette opines.  The Tigers, Orioles, White Sox and Angels round out Duquette’s list of Cespedes’ most likely landing spots.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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Of the top 10 entries on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, half are already off the market.  David Price, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto have all signed new contracts, though there’s obviously still lots of top-tier talent still available, particularly on the position player side.  Indeed, the five remaining top-10 players are all everyday players — three left fielders, a shortstop and a first baseman.  There’s also been a notable lack of clarity about each player’s market (compounded by the fact that several of the same teams are interested in these same names), leaving some question about exactly who might come off the board next.  Here are the candidates, in the order of their ranking on MLBTR’s list…

Justin Upton: There have been surprisingly few solid rumors about Upton’s market, as the Angels and Orioles have both at least spoken with Upton’s representatives but there’s been little evidence of a serious pursuit.  He carries a high projected price tag (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thinks Upton will get a seven-year, $147MM deal) and he’ll cost his new team a draft pick as qualifying offer compensation, though Upton’s main problem could simply be the glut of other quality outfielders on the free agent and trade markets.  That said, it’s hard to believe Upton won’t eventually wind up with a lucrative deal given the number of potential suitors that could use a big outfield bat.

Chris Davis: The Orioles, Davis’ former team, made a $150MM offer to the slugger that has since been taken off the table.  The Cardinals, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been speculatively linked to Davis but Baltimore is the only club known to be firmly pursuing him.  If Davis and agent Scott Boras are really looking for an eight-year, $200MM offer, however, it’s hard to see any team taking the plunge at that price, despite Boras’ track record of scoring higher-than-expected contracts for his clients.

Yoenis Cespedes: Upton and Cespedes share many of the same issues clouding their market, though Cespedes is two years older but can be signed without draft pick compensation.  (Cespedes, in fact, is the only player of these five who doesn’t have the qualifying offer hanging over his free agency.)  The Orioles and Angels have also been lightly linked to Cespedes, with the Tigers, Royals and Giants also being involved.  The White Sox have also been mentioned as a possible suitor for Cespedes or Upton, as they have a left field vacancy.

Alex Gordon: Though Gordon is four and two years older, respectively, than Upton and Cespedes, he’s been getting a lot more interest from a variety of teams — the Cardinals, Astros, Royals, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles and Tigers have all been linked to Gordon at one time or another this winter.  At least a few of those teams, however, can probably be eliminated from contention due to other moves; the Cubs signed Heyward and Colby Rasmus accepted Houston’s qualifying offer, for instance.  Dierkes projected a five-year, $105MM deal for Gordon, so it’s not surprising that teams are exploring their options before deciding to give up a draft pick and give a nine-figure deal to a 32-year-old.

Ian Desmond: Whereas the other four names on this list had good-to-excellent walk years, Desmond headed into free agency burdened by a poor 2015 season (.233/.290/.384 in 641 PA, 83 wRC+, -3.7 UZR/150).  It’s made for a slow market for Desmond, as teams with shortstop needs like the Padres and Mets have shown only marginal interest.  What may help Desmond, however, is that he may not be limited to shortstop-needy teams, as his agents have been pushing him as a multi-position player capable of handling the outfield.  The strategy seems to be working to some extent, as multiple teams are considering Desmond not just at short or the outfield but also at second and third.

With all these factors in mind, who will be the next member of MLBTR’s Top 10 to sign a new contract?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)

Orioles Notes: Cespedes, Davis, Gausman

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Here’s the latest from Camden Yards…

  • The Orioles have engaged Yoenis Cespedes and other “high-end” free agent outfielders in talks, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets.  This interest stems both from the apparent stalemate between Chris Davis and the O’s, and also simply from the fact that so many top outfielders are still available.  It makes sense that Baltimore would check in on other big bats in lieu of an agreement with Davis, though landing the likes of Cespedes could be difficult if the team was indeed only willing to offer a $150MM contract to Davis himself.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected Cespedes and Justin Upton to land deals in the $140MM-$147MM range this winter, though those two represent the top of the market — Alex Gordon, for instance, was projected for a $105MM price tag, while other options like Dexter Fowler or Denard Span are another tier or two down.
  • Since the Orioles have at least shown the willingness to spend top dollar, Olney reports (in his latest subscription-only column) that the team has received quite a few calls from agents.
  • The O’s have been in contact with Scott Boras, Davis’ agent, which the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly interprets as a positive sign even if he doesn’t think there’s necessarily a lot of progress being made.  Connolly also warns fans to not get over-confident about the idea of Davis returning — while the O’s seem to be the only major suitors for the first baseman’s services to date, Boras has a history of waiting to find an unexpected bidder that will match his client’s asking price.
  • Kevin Gausman is “off limits” in trade talks, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes, though teams often ask about the young righty.  Jason Garcia, another right-hander, also drew a lot of interest at the Winter Meetings, as did first baseman Christian Walker and prospects Jomar Reyes, Chance Sisco and Trey Mancini.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Todd Frazier Trade

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It’s been a busy week at MLBTR, and we’re just now catching up on some reactions to one of the week’s major moves: the three-team deal in which the White Sox received star third baseman Todd Frazier from the Reds. The Reds, of course, got infielders Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon and outfielder Scott Schebler from the Dodgers, while the Dodgers received righty Frankie Montas, infielder Micah Johnson and outfielder Trayce Thompson from Chicago.

  • The Reds got surprisingly little in return for Frazier, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Peraza, the key to the Reds’ end of the trade, is a potentially terrific defender at second base and a very fast baserunner, but he’s coming off an underwhelming season and doesn’t have much in the way of power or patience. Schebler, meanwhile, merely looks like a potential fourth outfielder, and Dixon might not even be a significant prospect. The White Sox did very well in the deal, Law writes, and the Dodgers got good value, although it’s unclear why they didn’t just acquire Frazier themselves, since they had what the Reds evidently wanted.
  • MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, meanwhile, wonders why the Reds didn’t just cut the three-team deal off at the pass and trade directly with the White Sox, who gave up three young players who appear to be better than the ones the Reds ultimately got.
  • After adding Frazier and Brett Lawrie, the White Sox could continue to make moves, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. They could deal outfielder Avisail Garcia or first baseman Adam LaRoche if they can find a trade partner, and dealing one of those two players could conceivably allow them to sign Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. (I’d counter that Garcia, who projects to make just $2.3MM next season, shouldn’t be a significant obstacle to signing Cespedes or Upton if that’s really what the White Sox want to do, and that it should be difficult for the team to clear much of LaRoche’s salary in a trade.) The Dodgers, meanwhile, could now use their collection of prospects to trade for Jose Fernandez, or failing that, someone like Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, Sonny Gray or Tyson Ross.
  • The White Sox expressed interest in Frazier at the beginning of the offseason, Reds GM Dick Williams tells MLB Network Radio (link to audio). The Reds and White Sox did have discussions about a two-team trade, but the Reds preferred the package of players the Dodgers brought to the table. Williams adds that one factor in the deal was the strength of their competition in the NL Central, which meant that their best chance of success was to gather prospects and build a team that could be successful “a couple of years” from now. Williams also notably says that teams have continued to discuss with him the possibility of trading for Aroldis Chapman despite the domestic violence accusations against Chapman.

AL West Notes: Angels, Cespedes, Upton

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Here’s tonight’s look at the AL West:

  • Angels owner Arte Moreno said the Halos didn’t make any serious offers to any of the big free agents out there this winter, Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register tweets.  More specifically, Moreno indicated that Angels did not make an offer to Jason Heyward and that the club is not in serious talks with Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, or Chris Davis (Twitter link via Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times)
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler told reporters, including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter), that the team is still “engaged in conversations” with other outfielders even after the signing of Daniel Nava.  Nava, it appears, is being counted on to provide the Halos with depth in left field, right field, and at first base.  For his part, Eppler feels that there are still going to be opportunities to improve the club, even without the addition of marquee names, Fletcher tweets.
  • Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter) gets the impression that the A’s were among those willing to bid more on Bartolo Colon than the Mets did.  On Wednesday, Colon and the Mets agreed to a one-year, $7.25MM deal and he reportedly received more lucrative offers elsewhere.  Colon enjoyed great success in Oakland, pitching to a 2.99 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 between 2012 and 2013.

AL Central Notes: Frazier, Indians, Cespedes, Rondon, Ramos

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Todd Frazier is reportedly being shopped “heavily” by the Reds, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the most extensive interest in Cincinnati’s third baseman is coming from the American League Central. The Indians, White Sox and Royals are all in the mix for Frazier, Nightengale hears, which aligns with previous reports connecting the three clubs to the All-Star third baseman. Both Cleveland and Chicago could use upgrades at the hot corner, while Frazier would most likely be deployed in left field were the Royals to line up with the Reds on a trade.

Elsewhere in the AL Central…

  • Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that while the Indians may have lost a pair of trade partners when the D-backs (Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller) and Giants (Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija) each added a pair of high-profile starting pitchers, there are still plenty of clubs with interest in Cleveland’s stockpile of young, controllable pitching. Hoynes feels that the Cubs (John Lackey signing notwithstanding), Rockies, Astros, Cardinals, Marlins and rebuilding Reds are all teams that could line up as trade partners. Cleveland is looking to bolster its offense and is interested in names like Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, Marcell Ozuna and Frazier. A one-for-one trade of Frazier for either Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar won’t be happening, he notes, as each has five years of club control compared to Frazier’s two. But, further pieces could make the deal more appealing. Failing a trade, the Indians could turn to relatively inexpensive names on the free agent market, where they’ve been linked to Rajai Davis, Shane Victorino and Steve Pearce.
  • Although Tigers GM Al Avila ruled out a run at top-of-the-market outfielders like Yoenis Cespedes at last week’s Winter Meetings, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press notes that owner Mike Ilitch made no such claim. Fenech writes that while the Tigers aren’t seen as a major player for Cespedes now, that could change if he lingers on the open market and his price tag drops. Ilitch bluntly stated that “[doesn’t] care about money” after signing Jordan Zimmermann, and there’s certainly the case that Cespedes’ agents at Roc Nation Sports could pitch directly to Ilitch, as Scott Boras reportedly did with Prince Fielder four years ago.
  • Also from Fenech, Tigers righty Bruce Rondon instigated a benches-clearing brawl at a game in the Venezuelan Winter League over the weekend. Fenech notes that manager Brad Ausmus had said just days prior that Rondon could work his way back into the bullpen picture by showing up to Spring Training with improved focus. The Tigers abruptly sent Rondon home with just under two weeks left in the season, citing his “effort level” as the driving factor behind the decision.
  • The Twins met with Cesar Ramos’ agents and listened to a pitch on the lefty reliever in Nashville, reports 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (via Twitter). However, Wolfson doesn’t get the sense that there’s any real movement on that front. Increasingly, it seems like the Twins will trade for the lefty reliever(s) they’re seeking.

Mozeliak: “Dynamic” Signing Unlikely For Cardinals

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Having missed out on left-hander David Price and right fielder Jason Heyward, the Cardinals are unlikely to make a “dynamic” signing this offseason, GM John Mozeliak tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

“It’s clear now this offseason is not going to have that dynamic signing that we tried to do with Price and Heyward,” Mozeliak explains. “There isn’t anything now that we’re chasing with a nine-figure contract. We can take the time to see what we have in the players we control. Obviously, we’re always open to adjusting.”

While that doesn’t eliminate the chance that the Cardinals could still add a notable free agent, it casts doubt on the likelihood of adding any of the top remaining bats on the market. Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis and Alex Gordon — the latter two of whom have both been linked to St. Louis — all have cases to exceed $100MM on their next contracts. While USA Today’s Bob Nightengale said after Heyward’s agreement with the Cubs that the Cardinals would turn their focus to Gordon, Goold now writes that Mozeliak and his staff don’t consider Gordon an alternative to Heyward. Goold likens the scenario to the Price/Zack Greinke market, noting that the Cards didn’t jump into the mix for the latter upon seeing the former sign in Boston.

The Cardinals are still looking for upgrades to the pitching staff, whether in the form of an additional starting pitcher or a bullpen arm, writes Goold, though he notes that the market for starting pitching may need to change before St. Louis enters the fray for the top remaining names. The team has been linked to Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, though Goold specifically notes that Leake’s market may have escalated beyond the Cardinals’ comfort zone.

Price and Heyward were considered to be exceptions to the Cardinals’ typically measured approach to free agency, according to Goold. Though the loss of Heyward stings more given the fact that he’ll head to a division rival, it doesn’t appear as though there was any lack of effort on the Cardinals’ behalf. Reports have already indicated that the Cardinals offered Heyward a larger overall guarantee, and Goold adds that St. Louis’ deal, too, included an opt-out clause. (Of course, Heyward’s agreement with the Cubs is said to contain two opt-out clauses and afford him a higher annual value.) Having been spurned by Heyward, St. Louis figures to enter the season with an outfield trio of Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty (although Mozeliak said nothing to suggest that trade scenarios would not be entertained).

In the rotation, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia should all have spots locked down, while lefties Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales could factor in at the back end of the mix. Further additions shouldn’t be ruled out, although Goold does note that there’s a chance the only further signing would be to bring someone to camp to compete for a job in Spring Training. That, again, doesn’t necessarily preclude the Cards from upgrading via trade, though neither Mozeliak nor Goold indicated that said scenario is likely, either.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Gio, Yelich, Cespedes, Freeman

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Phillies GM Matt Klentak must see upside in bounceback starters like Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton, tweets ESPN’s Jayson Stark (1, 2). Both pitchers are a year from free agency. As Stark puts it, the club gave up replaceable parts for the chance to re-market them to contending clubs at the trade deadline. From my perspective both pitchers also give the Phillies the opportunity to compete in the weak NL East. Philadelphia took some momentum into the offseason with a solid second half. While a hypothetical rebound campaign would probably ultimately sputter like the Braves’ 2015 season, it doesn’t hurt to put some parts in position just in case. The Phillies also have several pitching prospects due to debut during the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Hellickson and Morton can hold the door just long enough for the next guy.

Here’s more from the rest of the division:

  • The Marlins inquired about Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Talks promptly concluded when the Nationals asked for outfielder Christian Yelich in return. It’s possible the Marlins see Gonzalez as a match for Marcell Ozuna (my speculation), but it’s always hard to work out an in-division trade – especially when both teams aim to contend.
  • Even though former Mets outfielder Michael Cuddyer is now off the books, the club isn’t likely to jump on top outfielders like Yoenis Cespedes, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The $12.5MM saved from Cuddyer (assuming there was no buyout), will probably be used on quality bench depth. The team improved dramatically when they acquired Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. Ensuring that similarly valuable players are available to fill cracks in the roster will better serve the Mets hunt for contention.
  • It may be time for the Braves to trade Freddie Freeman, suggests Mike Petriello of MLB.com. The trades of Shelby Miller and Andrelton Simmons have focused the club’s talent in the minor leagues. Freeman could be used to acquire another impressive haul. The Braves are already gearing up for a lengthy rebuilding process, so they might as well get top dollar for Freeman before he begins to decline.
  • Nationals infielder Danny Espinosa wants to start at shortstop next season, writes Todd Dybas of the Washington Times. After two consecutive bad seasons, Espinosa rebounded in 2015 with a 2.3 WAR campaign. Good defense in a utility role plus an improvement at the plate to roughly league average helped. He improved his plate discipline which looks like a sustainable fix. Even with the solid season, Espinosa will have to hold off top prospect Trea Turner. Acquired in the Steven Souza trade, Turner appears ready for a major league opportunity.

Cardinals Expected To Pursue Alex Gordon

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With Jason Heyward set to join the division-rival Cubs, the Cardinals are expected to make a push to add fellow free agent outfielder Alex Gordon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Of course, Gordon has also reportedly drawn interest from deep-pocketed clubs like the Giants, Angels, and others, so his market promises to be robust.

St. Louis has also been rumored to have some interest in slugger Chris Davis, who might not be seen as an outfielder but could still fit in St. Louis, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports posits on Twitter that he could still be an option. Going for Gordon, meanwhile, might also leave the team with some free capacity to add a starter, Rosenthal suggests.

It should be noted that it remains entirely unclear whether the Cards will plan to reallocate any cash that might have gone to Heyward (or to David Price) directly back into free agency. After all, the organization has not traditionally been one of the biggest factors in free agency. And while, owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has said that the Cards will “stretch” in the right situation, it’s not clear whether any such opportunities remain.

Of course, Gordon promises to command a far more limited commitment than did Heyward and Price. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a $105MM commitment over five years, which is a hefty sum for a player who’ll soon turn 32 but is nowhere near the overall outlay needed to land the other two. It also still seems likely he’ll fall shy of Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes, the other top outfielders remaining on the market.

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