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Royals Sign Will Smith

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The Royals announced the signing of left-hander Will Smith to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee for the CAA client, who could earn up to $1MM in additional incentives. He’d receive $125K for every fifth appearance between 25 and 60 contests.

Smith, 34, returns to the club with whom he made his big league debut back in 2012. Then a starting pitcher, Smith took the ball for 16 turns through the rotation during his age-22 rookie campaign, struggling to a 5.32 ERA and 4.66 FIP across 89 2/3 innings of work. The Royals converted Smith to relief the following season, and the southpaw hasn’t looked back since. He posted a solid 3.24 ERA, 23% better than league average by ERA+, and a 3.03 FIP from 2013-16 across 202 2/3 innings of work split between the Royals, Brewers, and Giants organizations.

Smith missed the entire 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but returned to the mound in 2018 to deliver the finest two seasons of his career. Pitching for San Francisco in 2018-19, Smith posted a 2.66 ERA and 2.71 FIP, striking out a whoping 35.8% of batters faced while racking up 48 saves and earning his lone career All Star appearance during the 2019 season. That dominant performance earned him a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves in free agency the following winter.

The lefty struggled during the first season of that deal, posting a 4.50 ERA with a whopping 7.38 FIP during the shortened 2020 season, though that amounted to just 16 innings of work. The remainder of the contract saw Smith post decent numbers out of the bullpen as the Braves won the World Series in 2021, though he would ultimately be shipped to Houston the following year in a swap that brought Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta. Overall, Smith posted a 3.69 ERA and 4.21 FIP over 127 innings while striking out 27.9% of batters faced and collecting two World Series rings between the 2021 and 2022 campaigns.

In his return to the open market last winter, Smith lingered on the free agent market until late March before ultimately signing with the Rangers on a one-year, $1.5MM guarantee. Though Smith posted a roughly league average 4.40 ERA in 2023, he managed a more palatable 3.36 FIP and recorded 22 saves in 27 chances for Texas last season as they went on to make the postseason for the first time since 2016 before winning the first World Series championship in franchise history and earning Smith his third consecutive World Series ring.

Back on the free agent market once again, Smith wasted no time in agreeing to a deal this winter, and figures to get the opportunity to close for the Royals entering the 2024 campaign. The contract will give the southpaw the opportunity to bounce back on a team with minimal hopes of making the playoffs next season, a similar situation to the one Kansas City offered Aroldis Chapman in 2023 before he joined Smith in Texas following a midseason trade. Meanwhile the Royals are surely hoping that, if they do find themselves on the outside looking in with regards to the playoff race, Smith will have pitched well enough by the time the trade deadline rolls around next summer to net the club a solid return just as Chapman did when he was swapped for Cole Ragans. Ragans, 26 this week, made 12 starts for the Royals down the stretch after the club acquired him from the Rangers and impressed with a 2.64 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate in 71 2/3 innings of work.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Smith and the Royals had agreed to a one-year, $5MM guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the possibility of $1MM in incentives, which the Associated Press specified.

Rangers Sign Will Smith

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8:49AM: Smith will earn $1.5MM in guaranteed money, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).  Up to $2.5MM in bonus money is also available, related to incentives based on total appearances and games finished, indicating that Smith might indeed get some consideration for a closer role.

8:03AM: The Rangers announced that veteran left-hander Will Smith has been signed to a one-year, Major League contract.  Infielder Mark Mathias has been designated for assignment to create space for Smith on the roster.

After spending the latter portion of the 2022 season with the World Series champion Astros, Smith now joins the Lone Star State’s other team.  The Braves traded Smith to Houston at the trade deadline, which seemed to get the veteran on track after a rough start to the season.  Smith posted a 3.27 ERA over 22 innings with the Astros, and cut down drastically on the walks and home runs that plagued him earlier in the year with Atlanta.

Though he didn’t pitch for the Astros in the postseason, Smith still earned his second consecutive championship ring, after also being part of Atlanta’s World Series-winning squad in 2021.  The veteran lefty now joins a Rangers team that hasn’t had a winning season since 2016, but has invested heavily over the last two offseasons to upgrade the roster.  Bruce Bochy was hired as manager this winter to further bolster the club, and Smith is certainly familiar with his new skipper, having played under Bochy with the Giants from 2016-19.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in January, Smith’s move to Houston saw him make some changes in pitch usage and mechanics.  The southpaw’s success in the wake of those changes might’ve answered any doubts over whether or not Smith had anything left in the tank at age 33, and addressed concerns over his below-average walk and hard-hit ball rates for the season as a whole.  That said, there is probably also a reason why Smith remained unsigned until March 4, and there wasn’t even much public buzz about his market until a few weeks ago, when teams like the Tigers and Cubs reportedly showed interest.

For the Rangers, their need for left-handed bullpen depth increased when Brett Martin underwent shoulder surgery in January, as Martin might end up missing the entirety of the 2023 campaign.  Smith joins Brock Burke as the primary left-handed weapons in the Texas bullpen, with Smith probably likely to take a more traditional relief role while Burke returns as a multi-inning pitcher.  Taylor Hearn and minor league signings Danny Duffy and Joe Palumbo are also in camp, and Smith’s acquisition might squeeze one of the non-roster invitees out of a shot at the Opening Day roster.

Since Smith was a regular closer as recently as the 2021 season, it isn’t out of the question that the Rangers are eyeing him for another late-game role.  Texas is hopeful that Jose Leclerc or Jonathan Hernandez can fill late-game roles now that they’re fully healthy, but adding a veteran arm like Smith is also a shrewd depth move.  Smith pitched as a closer under Bochy in San Francisco in 2018-19, so the manager might opt to lean on a familiar face if the Rangers do choose to go with a set closer rather than a committee.

Texas acquired Mathias as part of the deadline deal that sent Matt Bush to the Brewers last August, and Mathias ended up appearing in 24 games as the Rangers played out the string.  In the small sample size of 74 plate appearances, Mathias hit very well (a .277/.365/.554 slash line), so that hot streak and his multi-positional ability gave the 28-year-old some hope of catching on with Texas in a utility role this season.  That scenario is still a possibility if Mathias can clear waivers, but with Robbie Grossman recently signed to bolster the outfield mix, the Rangers might prefer to see what the likes of Ezequiel Duran or Josh Smith can do as backup infielders.

Mathias has played in parts of two MLB seasons, with Milwaukee and Texas.  Originally a third-round pick for Cleveland in the 2015 draft, Mathis has a strong .286/.377/.466 slash line over 715 career PA at the Triple-A level, so between that production and his spurt of offense with the Rangers last year, a club looking for utility help might be tempted to make a waiver claim.

Cubs Have Shown Interest In Mike Minor

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this afternoon the team was still monitoring the market for left-handed relief. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic adds some specificity to that search, reporting that players like Mike Minor, Will Smith and Brad Hand have all been under consideration. Mooney also adds Zack Britton — whose appeal to the Cubs has previously been reported — as a player the club has checked in on.

Interest in Smith, Hand and Britton is fairly straightforward for a club seeking southpaw help in the later innings. They’re arguably the three top unsigned relievers of either handedness. They’re all former All-Stars with strong career track records and more recent question marks.

Smith had a rocky first half of the season in Atlanta but quietly impressed following a deadline trade to the Astros. Hand allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings with the Phillies last season, but that came with strikeout and walk marks that were a few percentage points worse than the respective league averages. Britton has barely pitched over the past season and a half after battling elbow issues that culminated in September 2021 Tommy John surgery.

Smith has only previously been linked to the Tigers this offseason. Evan Petzold of the Free-Press reported Detroit’s interest a couple weeks back but noted that Smith was also drawing attention from clearer-cut contenders. The Cubs are coming off a 74-88 season but were well better than Detroit in 2022 and have had a far more active offseason in an effort for immediate improvement. The only other team that has been publicly tied to Hand are the Twins.

Unlike that trio, Minor hasn’t had any recent work out of the bullpen. He pitched exclusively in relief for the 2017 Royals after two seasons lost to shoulder problems. Since then, the veteran left-hander has pitched essentially entirely as a starter. He has started all but one of 119 appearances in the last five years. Minor had quite a bit of success in that capacity with the Rangers between 2018-19. Things have gone downhill in the trio of seasons since then.

Minor has allowed more than five earned runs per nine innings in each of the past three campaigns. Between 2020-21, he at least stayed mostly healthy and served as a source of back-of-the-rotation innings. That wasn’t the case in 2022, however. Minor was limited to 98 frames over 19 starts during his lone season as a member of the Reds. He posted a 6.06 ERA with a career-worst 16.7% strikeout percentage while allowing an untenable 2.2 home runs per nine.

It’s possible Minor’s struggles are attributable, at least in part, to injury. The 35-year-old began the season on the injured list with a shoulder concern and didn’t make his season debut until early June. He finished the year back on the IL thanks to renewed shoulder issues. The former All-Star hinted at potential retirement last fall but has apparently decided to give things another go. He recently held a showcase for interested teams.

Minor could appeal to teams seeking to stockpile their rotation depth, though the Cubs are presumably eyeing him as a potential relief option. Chicago has Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly penciled into their top four rotation spots. Hayden Wesneski, Adrian Sampson and Javier Assad headline the group competing for the final rotation job to open the year. Kyle Hendricks, who’d surely get a starting job once healthy, is reportedly looking towards May for a potential rehab stint after his 2022 campaign was cut short by a capsule tear in his shoulder.

The Cubs have been linked to a number of lefty relief options throughout the offseason. Brandon Hughes is the only southpaw assured of a season-opening bullpen job. There’s room for a second pitcher, though the club has slow-played that area despite an otherwise aggressive offseason that has brought in Taillon, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Tucker Barnhart and a handful of right-handed ’pen arms.

There might not be much room left in the budget. Roster Resource projects the Cubs’ luxury tax number around $225MM, $8MM shy of this year’s base threshold. Mooney writes the organization presently views that tax marker “as a soft salary cap,” limiting the amount of flexibility for Hoyer and his front office. It seems unlikely any of the remaining relievers would secure an $8MM guarantee at this point in the offseason — Minor, in particular, might be limited to non-roster offers — but most teams prefer to leave a bit of payroll space for in-season acquisitions.

Whether ownership would approve a bump above the luxury tax if the team is competing for a playoff spot in-season remains to be seen. Owner Tom Ricketts spoke vaguely about the tax in January, saying there “will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage” (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). The Cubs last paid the luxury tax in 2020.

Cubs Still Open To Signing Left-Handed Reliever

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Spring training is well underway, but the Cubs’ offseason work might not yet be complete. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic tweets that Chicago is still talking to some of the available left-handed relievers remaining in free agency, and president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer tells Mooney that he “wouldn’t be shocked” if he ended up bringing another arm aboard. Whether that’s on a big league or minor league deal remains to be seen.

At the moment, the only left-handed reliever on the Cubs’ roster is 27-year-old Brandon Hughes — a former 16th-round pick who wound up closing for the Cubs down the stretch on the heels of a strong debut campaign. The southpaw tossed 57 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball, fanning a strong 28.5% of his opponents against an 8.8% walk rate. Hughes logged eight saves and four holds, seeing time in higher-leverage situations as the season wore on. With no set closer in place for the Cubs, he’s one of several arms who could again be in the mix for saves during the upcoming 2023 season.

As we’ve written on multiple occasions, the lone segment of the free-agent market that still has some remaining depth is left-handed relievers. Each of Zack Britton, Will Smith and Brad Hand remain unsigned, as does veteran swingman Ross Detwiler. (Lefty Jose Alvarez is also a free agent, but he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery performed last September and thus won’t pitch in 2023.) Britton recently worked out for six clubs, and the Cubs were among those in attendance.

The field for Britton might be even narrower than that sextet would suggest; since the former Orioles closer held that showcase, the Angels (who were also in attendance) have signed Matt Moore. Meanwhile, the Mets (another attendee) reportedly prefer relievers who can yet be optioned to Triple-A. The Yankees, also in attendance, are loath to add further payroll commitments and step into the fourth tier of luxury penalization. The Dodgers and Rangers were the other two clubs present for Britton’s workout.

It’s been a quiet offseason with regard to Hand, though his hometown Twins have reportedly shown some degree of interest. Hand, 33 in a couple weeks, posted a 2.80 ERA in 45 innings with the Phillies last year, although as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored, a lot of the secondary metrics underneath that ERA stand out as red flags. Hand’s velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate all clocked in at their worst levels since he became a full-time reliever, for instance. The broader track record is plenty appealing, but it’s been a couple seasons since he was a dominant late-inning force.

It’s a similar tale with Smith — another 33-year-old southpaw whose performance has dropped off in recent years. Smith’s three-year deal with the Braves didn’t go as Atlanta hoped — though he was a key figure in their ’21 World Series run — as he posted a solid but unspectacular 3.87 ERA in 121 innings after putting pen to paper on a contract that guaranteed him $40MM. His 2022 season in Atlanta was particularly shaky, as Smith walked 12.3% of his opponents en route to a 4.38 ERA, losing his grip on the closer’s role along the way.

Smith, however, enjoyed a strong rebound effort following a trade to the Astros, who made slight alterations to his release point and pitch selection (as we outlined here a couple months ago). The Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold reported last month that the Tigers had some interest in Smith but added that other clubs with greater postseason aspirations had also inquired on the lefty. The Cubs aren’t necessarily a clear-cut contender, though they stand a better chance of reaching the playoffs than a still-rebuilding Tigers club that’s recently undergone a front office overhaul.

At this juncture of the offseason, any of the remaining relievers would fall into what’s become the Cubs’ sweet spot for bullpen acquisitions. Since their ill-fated signing of Craig Kimbrel to a lucrative three-year pact, the Cubs have shied away from multi-year deals and hefty salaries for bullpen arms. Dating back to the 2019-20 offseason, they’ve signed veterans like Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Ryan Tepera, Brad Boxberger, Chris Martin, Daniel Norris, Brandon Workman and Trevor Williams in free agency — but all have been on one-year deals with guarantees randing from $1.75MM to $5MM. With limited demand for free agents on MLB deals, it seems feasible that any of Britton, Smith or Hand could be had for something in that general price range.

Tigers Have Shown Interest In Will Smith

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The Tigers have shown some interest in free-agent reliever Will Smith, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. However, the left-hander has also received interest from multiple clubs that expect to contend for postseason berths in 2023, Petzold adds, which makes them an unlikely landing spot unless they significantly outbid any other suitors.

The 2022 campaign was a tale of two seasons with Smith, who posted a 4.38 ERA and 12.3% walk rate in 37 innings with the Braves before being traded to the Astros for Jake Odorizzi and immediately turning things around. In 22 frames with Houston, Smith worked to a 3.27 ERA (2.66 FIP, 2.83 SIERA) with a 26.7% strikeout rate — an uptick on his 24% mark in Atlanta — and a 4.4% walk rate that was miles below his bloated rate with the Braves. I noted back in January that the Astros upped Smith’s reliance on his slider and four-seamer at the expense of his curveball and also made some alterations to both his horizontal and vertical release points.

The results were impressive, although the Astros didn’t use him in the postseason. Smith wasn’t on the ALDS or ALCS roster and didn’t pitch in the World Series upon being added. And, as encouraging as his turnaround was, the ’Stros unsurprisingly weren’t heartened enough to exercise a weighty $13MM option (which came with a $1MM buyout).

Smith is now one of the few unsigned, clearly big-league caliber relievers remaining on the free-agent market. He won’t match the three-year, $40MM contract he received from the Braves in the 2019-20 offseason, but it stands to reason that his strong finish in Houston and his track record ought to land him a big league deal somewhere.

Dating back to 2013, the now-33-year-old Smith carries a 3.26 ERA with an excellent 31.5% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. He’s tallied 91 saves and 106 holds in that time, frequently operating as a high-leverage reliever with the Brewers, Giants and Braves. His time with Atlanta didn’t go as well as hoped, although it’s worth noting that was dominant during the team’s postseason run in 2021, firing 11 shutout innings as the Braves secured a World Series victory.

With a non-contending club like the Tigers, the opportunity would exist for Smith to even work his way into the closer’s role. There’s no established option in that spot for the time being, and at the very least, Smith would seem likely to find himself in a high-leverage role — be it as a setup man or ninth-inning specialist. Right now, Tyler Alexander looks like the Tigers’ lone lefty in the bullpen, though Chasen Shreve, Jace Fry and Miguel Del Pozo are all in big league camp as non-roster invitees this spring.

There hasn’t been much chatter about Smith’s market — or lack thereof — this offseason. Left-handed bullpen help has remained the one area of free agency with some actual depth for interested clubs, and the fact that so many southpaws lingered so long into the offseason figures to create some potential bargains. The D-backs scooped up Andrew Chafin on a one-year deal with a club option over the weekend, but the likes of Smith, Matt Moore, Zack Britton and Brad Hand all remain available. Britton just worked out for six clubs today, and the Twins have reportedly shown some interest in Hand. There’s likely some degree of overlap in the markets for the remaining lefties, and now that pitchers and catchers are beginning to report, it’s possible there’s an increased sense of urgency among the remaining unsigned free agents to find a job for the upcoming season.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Did The Astros Fix Will Smith?

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Back on Aug. 1, when the Astros and Braves agreed to a swap of veteran pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith, the move was met with some confusion by Astros fans. Odorizzi hadn’t endeared himself with a rocky start to his tenure in Houston, nor his public gripes about the team’s usage of him (specifically, a quick hook even on effective days), but he’d vastly outperformed Smith to that point in the season.

At the time of the trade, Odorizzi had a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings, and while it was accompanied by a lackluster strikeout rate, that was partially offset by a strong walk rate. Odorizzi wasn’t a star by any means but had been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. Houston, however, had six options ahead of him on the depth chart and felt a need for some left-handed help in the ’pen. Some ’Stros fans took issue with the return of Smith, in particular, though — and understandably so. He’d posted a tepid 4.38 ERA to that point in the season, and the under-the-hood numbers were actually worse. Smith’s 24% strikeout rate was his lowest since moving the to the bullpen, and his 12.3% walk rate was a career-worst. He was averaging 1.70 homers per nine innings pitched, and metrics like FIP (5.22) and xFIP (4.76) didn’t view him favorably.

Part of the swap was surely the similarities in their 2022 contracts. Smith was owed the balance of a $13MM salary and had a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Odorizzi was earning just $5MM but had another $2.5MM of easily attainable incentives, plus a weighty $3.25MM buyout on a 2023 option. More at the heart of the issue, however, it seems the Astros viewed Smith as someone they could revitalize with some tweaks.

That’s indeed how things played out, though the changes were more subtle than glaring. Smith largely scrapped his curveball in Houston, dropping from an 11.9% usage rate to just 3.6%. He threw slightly fewer fastballs (41.8% in Atlanta, 39.1% with Houston) and upped the usage on his slider, throwing it at a career-high 52.1% of the time. With the ’Stros, Smith also dropped both his vertical and horizontal release points, although not dramatically.

There was no major spike in spin rate — the spin on his four-seamer actually dipped slightly following the trade — and Smith didn’t begin throwing harder or unveil a new pitch that changed his fortunes. Rather, the subtle tweaks to his mechanics and a more acute focus on two pitches seemed to turn his fortunes. He located his slider more effectively (pre-trade, post-trade) and, crucially, avoided the heart of the plate far more often with his four-seamer (pre-trade, post-trade). Smith operated far more regularly and more effectively in the top-third of the strike zone — and just above it.

Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike rate jumped from an already-sharp 13.6% in Atlanta to a massive 17.3% with Houston. He was able to spot both pitches more effectively both on the fringes of the zone and within the zone; his first-pitch strike rate spiked from 63.2% with the Braves to 72.2% with the Astros. His walk rate plummeted from 12.3% to 4.4%.

Smith’s time with the Astros proved brief, but in two months with Houston he tossed 22 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 4.4% walk rate. After averaging 1.7 homers per nine frames with Atlanta, he allowed just two in 22 innings with Houston (0.82 HR/9). If anything, Smith was bizarrely unlucky on balls in play as an Astro; he yielded a sky-high .350 average on balls in play. Smith wasn’t on the Astros’ ALDS or ALCS roster — perhaps in part due to a heavily right-handed Yankees lineup — but was added to the World Series roster. He did not, however, pitch in a game. Houston declined his option at season’s end, favoring a $1MM buyout over a $13MM salary next season.

That outcome seemed obvious, but it’s hard to ignore the high note on which Smith ended the regular season. The lefty overwhelming improved his command, missed more bats, issued fewer walks and yielded fewer home runs. He still wasn’t used in many high-leverage spots by the Astros, but that’s in part due to their generally strong bullpen. Over his final 17 outings of the season, Smith pitched to a 2.35 ERA with an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in 15 1/3 innings.

However, because Smith was generally used in lower-leverage spots and because he didn’t pitch in the postseason, his turnaround in Houston flew largely under the radar. On the one hand, it’s arguably a damning reality that he was passed over in leverage situations and omitted from two of the Astros’ three postseason rosters. On the other hand, the results when he did pitch were excellent, and Houston had four other relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA (and five others with a FIP of 3.02 or better). Smith was a luxury but not someone they necessarily needed to acquire to plug into those leverage positions for lack of better options.

As was the case in the Houston bullpen, Smith is again somewhat lost in the shuffle of the offseason’s free-agent class. MLBTR ranked Taylor Rogers as the top lefty in this year’s class, and he indeed secured a three-year deal. Smith was never going to get another contract along those lines, but he’s perhaps closer to the next tier of lefties than one might expect when looking at his season-long numbers. Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore both had better seasons, and Chafin in particular seems like he should command a strong contract after his past couple years of performance. Smith’s end to the season, however, was quite strong, and if his next team gets more of the Houston version than the Atlanta version, he’ll likely be a bargain.

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each

Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

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