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Wei-Yin Chen

Wei-Yin Chen On Nationals’ Radar

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The Nationals are on the lookout for starting pitching now that Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are out of the picture and their hunt has led them to at least consider one of the best options still available.  Free agent Wei-Yin Chen is on the Nationals’ radar, a source tells Bill Ladson of MLB.com, though that source isn’t sure whether Washington would give him the five-year deal that he is seeking.

Every team in the league would obviously love to add a solid starter like Chen, but his price tag has so far left him dangling on the market without a ton of buzz as to where he might land.  Last week, it was reported that the Scott Boras client is seeking a five-year, $100MM commitment.  Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected that Chen would land a five-year deal worth $80MM.  Chen is – at least for now – aiming a whole lot higher.

The Nationals were recently said to have some interest in right-hander Mike Leake and GM Mike Rizzo even confirmed that an offer was made.  However, the price tag was apparently too rich for their blood and their interest quickly cooled off.  Overall, Rizzo indicated that the club hasn’t been very active on the market for starters.  The Nats already have a top three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez plus Tanner Roark and Joe Ross in the backend.  Beyond them, youngsters like A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito knocking on the door.

The 30-year-old Chen is coming off a nice four-year run with the Orioles which was highlighted by a particularly strong two-year platform in 2014-15.  Over the past two seasons, he’s logged a 3.44 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 to go along with a 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in 377 innings of work.  Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles earlier this offseason, so signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  That’s a notable disadvantage for Chen compared to quality pitchers remaining on the free agent market such as Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.  Late last month, Tim took an in-depth look at Chen and speculated on the type of deal he could land.

Right now, there isn’t an obvious landing spot for Chen.  Cardinals appeared to be a solid fit for a pitcher like Chen but GM John Mozeliak recently said that the team is unlikely to make a “dynamic” signing at this stage of the offseason.  The Giants were known to have some level of interest in Chen, but they are almost definitely out on high-priced pitching after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto this winter.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Kazmir, Dee Gordon, Clippard, Holliday, Padres, Astros

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There are a host of interesting notes in the latest column from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Here are some of the highlights:

  • While the Royals are still interested in free agent starters Yovani Gallardo and Scott Kazmir, as has previously been reported, the club may be most intrigued by Wei-Yin Chen, per Heyman. Kansas City would have to go well beyond its usual spending levels to add the southpaw, but Heyman writes that the club has newfound budget “flexibility” in the midst of its renaissance. Chen, though, is represented by Scott Boras, with whom the Royals have a strong relationship. (Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Rios and Franklin Morales are among the current or recent Royals to be Boras clients.)
  • Kazmir already has multiple three-year offers with guarantees in the range of $12MM to $13MM annually, per the report, with teams like the Athletics, Orioles, and Dodgers said to be involved. It seems like the first legitimate four-year offer could land Kazmir, Heyman adds. Of course, it’s unclear if the A’s will still be in the hunt if and when their reported one-year deal with righty Henderson Alvarez is finalized.
  • Meanwhile, the Royals are still pursuing Alex Gordon, but Heyman reports that the team’s initial four-year offer was not met with a very promising response from Gordon’s camp. It’s been surprisingly quiet on the Gordon front for much of the offseason, although with Jason Heyward off the board, it’s easy to imagine the market for him and fellow corner outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton picking up quickly.
  • The Royals are holding extension discussions with backstop Salvador Perez, says Heyman, and there’s interest from team and player in reaching “something equitable.” But K.C. has all the leverage, of course, given its already lengthy and cheap control rights over the sturdy young catcher. Heyman adds that Perez’s representatives have raised the extensions of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Braun in talks, with the Royals not favorably disposed to those concepts. (An observation: those deals certainly don’t seem all that relevant from where I sit. Perez is an excellent player, but hasn’t reached the heights of those stars, and his current contract is far cheaper than the ones Longoria and Braun turned into new deals. Also, as a heavily-worked, large-framed catcher, there are questions about how wise it would be to make a long-term investment in Perez.)
  • The Marlins have continued their extension talks with Dee Gordon, and Heyman says that Miami has put a five-year deal on the table. But Gordon and his reps are looking for seven seasons in an extension. The talks are moving slowly, but still moving, per Heyman.
  • While the Mets do have legitimate interest in Tyler Clippard, they only want him with a one-year guarantee, per Heyman. Clippard is looking for a two-year deal he adds. It certainly seems that the veteran’s market is lagging the rest of the top-end set-up men who hit free agency this year. That could be due to a combination of his heavy recent workload and sub-par peripherals last year, but Clippard should still find a significant contract given his lengthy track record and the high dollars we’ve seen given to inferior arms.
  • Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday has been working out at first base, with the veteran looking to extend his career by adding defensive versatility. While that’s been done at Holliday’s initiative, Heyman wonders whether the hypothetical possibility of a move could keep St. Louis involved in the hunt for Gordon.
  • The Padres seem unlikely to put together a big offer for Ian Desmond. That would certainly be bad news for the free agent, whose market has yet to develop, as San Diego seems like one of the best fits. The Pads are not getting a lot of interest in James Shields at present and have put a high price on Tyson Ross, per the report. Meanwhile, the club is considering a move for veteran reliever Fernando Rodney.
  • The Astros aren’t done with their bullpen and remain in the market for relievers as well as a corner bat, Heyman writes. Houston non-tendered Chris Carter, and A.J. Reed probably won’t be ready to begin the season, so there does indeed appear to be room for someone capable of taking some at-bats at first base (although Jon Singleton could be given another look there as well).
  • We’ve heard chatter that the Orioles and Rockies have had some talks regarding outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, and Heyman says that Colorado asked for young righty Kevin Gausman in a deal. That was, unsurprisingly, a non-starter for Baltimore. The O’s, meanwhile, tried to get Andre Ethier from the Dodgers last offseason, and Heyman wonders whether another such effort could take place this year as the club continues to hunt for another left-handed-hitting outfielder (per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, on Twitter).
  • The Indians had talks with free agent Austin Jackson before signing Rajai Davis, per Heyman. He adds that there are legitimate concerns that Michael Brantley will be out into June “or perhaps even later” after some undisclosed new shoulder “issue” arose this winter.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Wei-Yin Chen Seeking Five-Year, $100MM Deal

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Free agent pitcher Wei-Yin Chen is searching for a five-year, $100MM contract, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (on Twitter).  At that price, Kubatko adds, it’s clear that the Orioles have moved on to other offseason targets.  At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected that Chen would land a five-year deal worth $80MM.  Apparently, the Scott Boras client is aiming higher.

Chen, 30, is coming off a nice four-year run with the Orioles which was highlighted by a particularly strong two-year platform in 2014-15.  Over the past two seasons, he’s logged a 3.44 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 to go along with a 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in 377 innings of work.  Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles earlier this offseason, so signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  That’s a notable disadvantage for Chen compared to quality pitchers remaining on the free agent market such as Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.  Late last month, Tim took an in-depth look at Chen and speculated on the type of deal he could land.

The Cardinals appeared to be a solid fit for a pitcher like Chen but GM John Mozeliak recently said that the team is unlikely to make a “dynamic” signing at this stage of the offseason.  The Giants were known to have some level of interest in Chen, but they are almost definitely out on high-priced pitching after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto this winter.

Mozeliak: “Dynamic” Signing Unlikely For Cardinals

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Having missed out on left-hander David Price and right fielder Jason Heyward, the Cardinals are unlikely to make a “dynamic” signing this offseason, GM John Mozeliak tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

“It’s clear now this offseason is not going to have that dynamic signing that we tried to do with Price and Heyward,” Mozeliak explains. “There isn’t anything now that we’re chasing with a nine-figure contract. We can take the time to see what we have in the players we control. Obviously, we’re always open to adjusting.”

While that doesn’t eliminate the chance that the Cardinals could still add a notable free agent, it casts doubt on the likelihood of adding any of the top remaining bats on the market. Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis and Alex Gordon — the latter two of whom have both been linked to St. Louis — all have cases to exceed $100MM on their next contracts. While USA Today’s Bob Nightengale said after Heyward’s agreement with the Cubs that the Cardinals would turn their focus to Gordon, Goold now writes that Mozeliak and his staff don’t consider Gordon an alternative to Heyward. Goold likens the scenario to the Price/Zack Greinke market, noting that the Cards didn’t jump into the mix for the latter upon seeing the former sign in Boston.

The Cardinals are still looking for upgrades to the pitching staff, whether in the form of an additional starting pitcher or a bullpen arm, writes Goold, though he notes that the market for starting pitching may need to change before St. Louis enters the fray for the top remaining names. The team has been linked to Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, though Goold specifically notes that Leake’s market may have escalated beyond the Cardinals’ comfort zone.

Price and Heyward were considered to be exceptions to the Cardinals’ typically measured approach to free agency, according to Goold. Though the loss of Heyward stings more given the fact that he’ll head to a division rival, it doesn’t appear as though there was any lack of effort on the Cardinals’ behalf. Reports have already indicated that the Cardinals offered Heyward a larger overall guarantee, and Goold adds that St. Louis’ deal, too, included an opt-out clause. (Of course, Heyward’s agreement with the Cubs is said to contain two opt-out clauses and afford him a higher annual value.) Having been spurned by Heyward, St. Louis figures to enter the season with an outfield trio of Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty (although Mozeliak said nothing to suggest that trade scenarios would not be entertained).

In the rotation, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia should all have spots locked down, while lefties Tyler Lyons and Marco Gonzales could factor in at the back end of the mix. Further additions shouldn’t be ruled out, although Goold does note that there’s a chance the only further signing would be to bring someone to camp to compete for a job in Spring Training. That, again, doesn’t necessarily preclude the Cards from upgrading via trade, though neither Mozeliak nor Goold indicated that said scenario is likely, either.

Giants, Cardinals Interested In Wei-Yin Chen

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The Giants and Cardinals are both interested in left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, who calls the Royals another possible fit and says the Nationals may take a look at Chen if they don’t sign Mike Leake (a deal between the Nats and Leake is said to be unlikely at this point).

Chen, 30, is coming off a nice four-year run with the Orioles which was highlighted by a particularly strong two-year platform in 2014-15. Over the past two seasons, he’s logged a 3.44 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 to go along with a 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in 377 innings of work. A move to any of the clubs listed could benefit Chen’s production, as he’s struggled with home runs in the American League East (career 1.24 HR/9). The Giants and Royals, in particular, play in spacious parks that tend to suppress home runs.

St. Louis offers, in my eyes, the best mix of both need and financial capability of the listed clubs. The Giants have already inked Jeff Samardzija — though they’re still connected to other arms and could bring in a second starter — while the Royals have a number of needs and have never spent the type of money which Chen figures to command. (MLBTR projected a five-year, $80MM contract.) Then again, Kansas City has a good relationship with Chen’s agent, Scott Boras, and the reigning World Champs could use a boost in the rotation.

Johnny Cueto remains the top arm on the market, but Chen is joined by Leake and Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda as one of the more intriguing arms remaining in free agency. To this point, he’s also been linked to the Cubs, whereas a return to the Orioles has been deemed unlikely. Earlier today, MLBTR’s Zach Links was on hand when Boras held court at Nashville’s Winter Meetings. Boras characterized Chen’s market as “strong” and, as Zach noted, made one of the types of comments we’ve come to expect of Boras over the years, noting that Chen’s ERA within the AL East over the past two seasons is lower than that of David Price.

Scott Boras On Span, Wieters, Kennedy, Chen

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In what has become an annual tradition at the Winter Meetings, agent Scott Boras held court for all of the reporters in attendance.  MLB Trade Rumors was on hand for the scrum and we’ve got a few of the highlights below:

  • One reporter asked if Boras would be willing to consider a one-year deal for free agent outfielder Denard Span.  Boras flatly rejected that notion and said that he will be gunning for a multi-year contract.  Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) hears from some in the industry that feel Span may have to settle for a one-year deal with incentives due to health concerns.
  • Boras was asked about the decision for Matt Wieters to accept the qualifying offer from the Orioles and he explained that the catcher’s free agent market would have been bogged down too much by the draft pick forfeiture had he tried it.  When asked by MLBTR why he and Ian Kennedy opted to reject the QO, Boras quipped, “Well, someone told me this pitching market was going to be advanced.  I think it was pretty obvious to us at the time that the decision was going to be what it is.”
  • I asked Boras about the market for starter Wei-Yin Chen, who stands as one of the strongest remaining starters available.  Boras characterized his market as “great” and made a fun, agent-slanted case for his client.  “The last two years his ERA is lower against AL East teams than David Price, so that tells you how good a pitcher he is,” Boras said.
  • I also asked Boras about reliever Greg Holland and his unique situation in free agency.  Boras confirmed the widely expected notion that Holland will seek out a two-year deal and he says that “a number” of teams with interest in that type of deal have spoken to him about such a pact.  Boras also said that Holland could return to action in time for the 2016 postseason.  From the outside, one has to wonder if Holland will be able to rebound that quickly after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late September.

Starting Pitching Notes: Leake, Iwakuma, Maeda, Chen, Marlins

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The red-hot free agent pitching market will only help the Indians in trade talks, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  With so many top starters commanding giant salaries, the Tribe’s collection of young arms becomes more attractive both to teams who are hesitant to overspend on pitching, or to teams who missed out on their free agent targets.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti could be making a career-defining move, Pluto believes, if he chooses to deal one of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar or Trevor Bauer for a big bat since such a trade could put the Tribe over the top as contenders.

Here’s more from the ever-shifting pitching rumor mill…

  • The Giants are still interested in Mike Leake, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets, even after signing Jeff Samardzija.  Leake’s market is “now more defined” with so many other top pitchers off the board.  The Giants may not be willing to give Leake a Samardzija-esque deal, however, as reported by Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter).  This could take them out of the running for Leake given how several other teams also have interest.
  • Also from Olney, the Royals are in the mix for starting pitching.  Chris Young has been the only starter directly tied to Kansas City in reports, though there has been speculation that the World Series champs could aim higher in their search for rotation help.
  • The Dodgers and Giants both fell short in their search for Zack Greinke, but MLB Network’s Peter Gammons wonders if the two arch-rivals could compete again for Hisashi Iwakuma.  Both teams have already shown interest in the Japanese righty, and while the Mariners also have a long-stated interest in re-signing Iwakuma, I would guess the presence of these two big-market teams could drive Iwakuma’s price out of Seattle’s comfort zone.
  • There has been speculation in the Japanese media that Kenta Maeda would prefer to pitch for the Dodgers, according to NPBTracker’s Patrick Newman (Twitter link).  The Dodgers have a long history with Japanese talent and they have a need in the rotation, so a connection makes sense.  L.A. will get a chance to negotiate with Maeda if they’re one of the teams who posts a $20MM bid for his services.
  • Wei-Yin Chen has become a “hot topic” for the Cubs, 670TheScore.com’s Bruce Levine tweets.  Chen is another free agent whose market should benefit from other pitchers disappearing off the market.  Chicago, for instance, had interest in Price, Zimmermann and Samardzija before all of those pitchers signed elsewhere, though the Cubs already made one rotation-bolstering move in signing John Lackey.
  • The Marlins are exploring a wide range of pitching options as they head to the Winter Meetings, president of baseball operations Michael Hill tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes.  Frisaro suggests that James Shields or Wade Miley could be trade targets since Miami has been interested in both pitchers in the past, though the Marlins are trying to hang onto their core position players in deals (presumably trade candidate Marcell Ozuna isn’t necessarily part of this equation).
  • The Marlins are open to the possibility of signing Cliff Lee, Frisaro reports.  Presumably Miami would be one of several clubs interested in seeing if the former Cy Young Award winner has anything left in his comeback attempt.
  • The Astros could look to deal 26-year-old lefty Brett Oberholtzer, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  Oberholtzer has a 3.94 ERA, 2.86 K/BB rate and 5.9 K/9 over 253 2/3 career innings, all with Houston since 2013.  He’s one of many young arms the Astros have on hand beyond the five-man rotation, and the southpaw could be expendable if Houston is satisfied with its other depth options.  Heyman speculates that the Orioles, Phillies, Rangers and Reds could all be fits as trade partners.
  • The Twins aren’t one of the reported 10 teams interested in Henderson Alvarez, 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson tweets.

Heyman’s Latest: Cueto, Giants, Rangers, Alvarez, Puig

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Johnny Cueto tops the list as the key player to watch at the Winter Meetings, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes in his latest Inside Baseball piece.  Several big-market clubs have already checked in on Cueto and the Dodgers may hold particular interest since they considered trading for Cueto at the deadline last summer but held off out of a desire to keep their top prospects.  Heyman’s piece was written before the news of Zack Greinke’s deal with the Diamondbacks broke, so it stands to reason that the Dodgers’ interest could be even greater with Greinke off the board.  The Cardinals, Heyman reports, haven’t checked in on Cueto, as the righty “had a rough relationship with Cardinal Nation while starring in Cincinnati.”

Here are some of the hot stove highlights of Heyman’s lengthy news roundup…

  • The Giants may pursue not one but two pitchers now that they’ve missed out on Greinke.  San Francisco is “believed to have big money to spend” and they’ve been connected to such names as Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija.
  • The Rangers are receiving a lot of interest in many of their top relievers, including closer Shawn Tolleson, Jake Diekman, Sam Dyson and the newly-acquired Tom Wilhelmsen.
  • The Rangers’ shopping list includes a right-handed bat for lineup balance and a starting pitcher likely to fill out the back of the rotation.  Texas is also looking for a young catcher.  Earlier this week, the Rangers were said to be working on a deal to add a catcher but no trade materialized.
  • Pedro Alvarez has received calls from five teams, including the Indians, since being non-tendered by the Pirates earlier this week.
  • Another non-tendered Alvarez, former Marlins righty Henderson Alvarez, is also drawing a lot of interest on the open market, with 10 teams checking in.  Though 2015 was a lost year for Alvarez due to injuries and he may miss some time in 2016 in the wake of shoulder surgery, it’s no surprise that Alvarez is a hot commodity given his track record.
  • The Marlins’ desire to trade Marcell Ozuna is well-known, though Heyman notes that one obstacle is Miami’s lack of a ready-made replacement in center field.  In a tweet from this morning, Heyman wonders if Dexter Fowler could be pursued since Fowler was formerly tutored by new Miami hitting coach Barry Bonds.  There hasn’t yet been any sign that the Marlins are interested in Fowler, however.
  • Speaking of Marlins trades, closer A.J. Ramos and third baseman Martin Prado have both drawn interest but Heyman figures the team isn’t too likely to part with either player.
  • A few teams called the Dodgers to ask about Yasiel Puig’s availability but the Dodgers aren’t keen on selling low on the outfielder.  The team intends to “try to reach him” and inspire Puig to return to his old form.  The Dodgers are more likely to trade Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier if they do decide to move an outfielder, though dealing either could be hard given the crowded outfield market (not to mention both players’ salaries).
  • Daniel Murphy was connected to the Dodgers this offseason but he “doesn’t appear to be at the forefront” of the team’s plans at the moment.
  • The Mets seem to be more serious about adding a platoon partner for Juan Lagares in center field rather than sign an everyday center fielder like Fowler or Denard Span.
  • Brett Gardner’s name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter but “there isn’t currently any traction for a trade” between the Yankees and any other teams.
  • The Yankees are another team monitoring the free agent pitching market and New York “may be laying in the weeds” to make its move on Samardzija or Wei-Yin Chen.
  • Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Pillar would be a fit with the Cubs but there is “nothing to that one at the moment.”  It’s hard to see Toronto dealing the defensively-spectacular Pillar given how their next best center field option (Dalton Pompey) is still unproven at the Major League level and struggled badly when given the everyday job last April.

Free Agent Profile: Wei-Yin Chen

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After a successful four-year stint with the Orioles, Taiwanese lefty Wei-Yin Chen has reached free agency coming off the best season of his MLB career.

Strengths/Pros

Since 2014, Chen has a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings.  That ranks 28th among all qualified MLB starters, 11th among southpaws, and seventh among a historically strong free agent class.  While Chen is not an ace, he’s had better recent results than the casual fan might realize, and he’s been better than free agent peers Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake.

Sep 26, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Wei-Yin Chen (16) delivers a pitch during the first inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Chen is not going to beat himself.  His 1.81 BB/9 ranks tenth among qualified starters for 2014-15, and he’s walked a lower percentage of batters faced than even Zack Greinke.  Chen was unhittable against lefties this year, as only Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw allowed a lower weighted on-base average against them.  Chen throws hard for a southpaw, as his average fastball velocity over the last two years of 91.6 miles per hour ranks seventh among qualified lefty starters.

Chen features a healthy left arm.  His only MLB DL stint was for an oblique strain in 2013.  In each of his other three MLB campaigns, he made at least 31 starts.  Over the past four years, Chen has made more starts than guys like Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Johnny Cueto.

Chen has youth on his side, as he turned 30 in July.  He’s younger than mid-range free agent southpaws Scott Kazmir and J.A. Happ, making four years palatable and five years possible.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you’re not into ERA, Chen doesn’t look all that great.  Though he had that 3.44 ERA over the last two seasons, his SIERA during that time was 3.91.  Chen’s skills suggest he’s more Wade Miley/Jon Niese than Jose Quintana/Francisco Liriano.  I’m not just citing an esoteric stat here.  Chen’s strikeout rates have always been pedestrian, generally at or below league average.  His groundball rate ranks 42nd among qualified starters over the last two years, and his attendant home run rate is the sixth-worst in baseball.  To succeed, Chen needs a strong defense and a big ballpark.  Even then, the expectation should be league average innings.

On that note, Chen is not going to save a team’s bullpen, as he has averaged 6.08 innings per start over the last two seasons.  Among those with at least 60 starts, that ranks 28th of 46.  Samardzija and Leake will regularly go deeper into games than Chen.

Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so signing him requires a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  This is a disadvantage for Chen compared to pitchers such as Cueto, Leake, Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.  Teams like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks would have to forfeit an early-teens draft pick to sign Chen, which could cause them to look elsewhere in a robust market for free agent pitching.

Personal

Chen, a native of Taiwan, dropped out of college in 2004 to play pro ball, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.  He reportedly received offers from Japanese and MLB teams at the time.  According to Newman, Chen chose to sign with with the Chunichi Dragons because of Taiwanese scout Ta-Feng Chen.  After spending a little bit of time with the Dragons as well as their farm team, Chen went down for Tommy John surgery in late 2006.  Newman tells me the Dragons released him while he was rehabbing, re-signing him to an ikusei contract.  He went on to star with the Dragons, winning an ERA title in 2009.  At the pitcher’s request, the Dragons released Chen after the 2011 season, allowing him to reach international free agency without dealing with the posting system.  Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette, who had been hired a few months earlier, signed Chen to a three-year contract worth $11.388MM guaranteed, with a club option for a fourth year.  Duquette had also signed Tsuyoshi Wada out of Japan for $8.15MM.  Chen was the first Taiwan-born player to sign with an MLB team out of Japan, as well as the first Taiwanese player in Orioles history.  Chen’s big league debut attracted more than a million viewers in Taiwan, where the game was carried on three national TV networks.

Market

The Orioles have a lot of needs to fill, and they don’t seem likely to re-sign Chen.  Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun noted recently that the O’s have never given a five-year deal to a free agent pitcher, plus Chen was “miffed” by the team’s decision to send him to the minors briefly in June due to a roster crunch.  Chen’s market could include teams such as the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, D’Backs, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and Yankees.  According to Connolly, Chen and his family reside in Southern California in the offseason.  As I mentioned, some clubs will back away because of the qualifying offer.  Others may prefer not to do business with agent Scott Boras or won’t have the payroll space for Chen.  There are four potential $100MM+ pitchers on the market, and then there is a second tier with Chen, Samardzija, Leake, and perhaps Maeda.  I project this to be the $80MM range, and certainly there are reasons to prefer Chen to the other three.  Samardzija is coming off a 4.96 ERA, Leake misses even fewer bats and had a higher ERA than Chen, and Maeda is unproven in MLB and may not even be posted.  Plus, Chen is the only southpaw of his tier.  If Chen drops down to four years, he could be compared to Kazmir.  Kazmir is no horse himself, and he’s a year and a half older than Chen.

Expected Contract

I’ve seen some four-year projections for Chen’s contract, and while that is possible, I believe he’ll get five.  Next year’s free agent market is one factor — Chen would be the second-best starting pitcher in that weak group, which might be important to forward-looking teams.  There’s also the Boras factor.  He got a four-year deal for a 35-year-old Derek Lowe.  He routinely gets his clients contracts at the top end of their range, particularly those coming off a good year.  There’s also good old-fashioned earned run average.  A 3.34 ERA still sounds really good.  If Boras has a team owner’s ear on Chris Davis, surely he’ll bring up Chen and sell the lefty on the basis of that ERA.  ERA still seems to hold sway in the marketplace – look no further than the James Shields signing or the Alfredo Simon trade.  While I see a ceiling of $90MM, I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract for Chen.

AL East Notes: Chen, Bundy, Saltalamacchia, Sox, Rays, Jays

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The Yankees “could make a serious run” at left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, reports Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. A source tells Feinsand that the Yankees will be one of the many teams involved in talks for the Scott Boras client, and in an ideal world, the Yanks would love to add a left-handed starter. David Price, of course, is the top lefty name on the market, but Chen will have a much more reasonable asking price, Feinsand hears, as he’s seeking a five-year deal. GM Brian Cashman said at the GM Meetings that while talent trumps handedness, in an ideal setting he’d be able to balance out his rotation a bit while also providing an upgrade. The Yankees are more than familiar with Chen, having watched him pitch for the division-rival Orioles for the past four seasons.

A few more notes from the AL East…

  • Orioles righty Dylan Bundy has been shut down from Arizona Fall League action after experiencing forearm tightness, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. It’s certainly possible that the move is primarily precautionary, as Baltimore will no doubt handle Bundy with extreme care, but it’s obviously not encouraging given his lengthy struggle with arm injuries.
  • The Orioles have reached out to catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s camp, a source tells Rich Dubroff of CSNMidAtlantic.com. Baltimore has interest in Saltalamacchia in the event that Matt Wieters rejects their qualifying offer, as he’s widely expected to do. According to Dubroff, if and when Wieters declines, the O’s will have interest in adding a veteran backstop. Dubroff doesn’t explicitly state it, but based on his reporting, it seems that the Orioles view the QO as the only means by which they’ll be able to retain their longtime catcher.
  • While the Red Sox have a clear need in the rotation, they also lacked hard-throwing relievers in 2015 and, with a closer on the wrong side of 40, would be wise to explore the trade market for dominant bullpen arms, opines Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Lauber lists Drew Storen, Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon as potential targets, noting that the GM of each respective club at least hinted at the possibility of each pitcher’s availability this week. Chapman is well-known to be available, and that’s the wide belief on Storen, also. Lauber notes that both the Reds and Nats have needs in the outfield and in other areas of depth for the Red Sox, making alignment on a trade possible in theory.
  • Lauber’s colleague, Michael Silverman, writes in a separate column that trading for an ace might not happen for the Red Sox this winter. Silverman quotes execs from the Mets, Athletics and White Sox on the availability (or lack thereof) of the Mets’ young rotation, Sonny Gray and Chris Sale. The strong reluctance from teams with controllable pitching suggests that Sox fans shouldn’t get their hearts set on prying a front-line arm away from a club that possesses a young ace (or, in the Mets’ case, young aces) — as such pitchers are of the rarest breed.
  • Rays president of baseball operations Matt Silverman (not to be confused with the similarly named Boston columnist referenced in the previous bullet) spoke with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times about his penchant for trades since moving to the top of the team’s baseball operations pyramid. As Topkin notes, Silverman has made 13 trades in 13 months, though the young exec says he didn’t necessarily plan to be so active. Silverman explained, though, that the team’s financial inability to compete for top-tier free agents and top international players (at least the ones who could make an immediate impact) forces him into the trade market. Topkin reports that the Rays aren’t even soliciting interest in Evan Longoria, nor are they planning to do so, but they’d like to move James Loney and the remaining $8MM on his contract to increase payroll flexibility and open at-bats for other players.
  • Topkin also reports (via Twitter) that the Rays are one of many clubs showing interest in free agent lefty Rich Hill. The journeyman southpaw dominated in four starts for the Red Sox late last season, creating a good deal of intrigue around him. Unlike most free agents, Hill’s lack of track record and status as an upside play shouldn’t price him out of the Rays’ range.
  • The Blue Jays would like to add at least two starting pitchers and ideally three, interim GM Tony LaCava told Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). In a full column, Nicholson-Smith writes that while adding that type of pitching is the goal there’s no plan to move pieces such as Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion to make it happen. The Jays aren’t interested in detracting from a strength to enhance a weakness.
  • Additionally of note from Nicholson-Smith’s column is that the Blue Jays remain uncertain as to the role of Roberto Osuna in 2016. While Osuna was a brilliant closer for the team in 2015 despite his status as the league’s youngest player (20), he was being developed as a starter and could have more long-term value in that role. The team’s ability to add rotation arms this winter will likely impact what role Osuna and Aaron Sanchez occupy in 2016.
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