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Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes Discusses Kershaw, Injuries

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Dodgers fans enjoyed the club’s annual FanFest today, and among the festivities were comments from GM Brandon Gomes as well as several players. In addition to providing a handful of injury updates, Gomes discussed the future of longtime franchise face and generational hurler Clayton Kershaw during the event.

As relayed by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, Gomes told reporters that the door remains open for Kershaw to return to the only club he’s known throughout his illustrious 18-season professional career even after the Dodgers have spent the offseason completely retooling their rotation mix with the additions of right-handers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow as well as the more recent pickup of veteran southpaw James Paxton. Kershaw has long been expected to choose between either staying with the Dodgers or joining his hometown Rangers on the heels of the first World Series championship in franchise history, with ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez indicating that the expectation is that he’ll eventually sign a two-year deal with one of the two clubs.

“We continue to stay in touch with Clayton,” Gomes said (as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register), “and we’ll progress.”

Kershaw, of course, is among the greatest starters in MLB history. The southpaw has ten All Star appearances, three Cy Young awards, and an MVP award on his mantel and is just 66 batters set down away from 3,000 career strikeouts. Dominant as he’s been throughout his entire career, it’s worth noting that the lefty battled through injury in the second half last year. While he managed a sterling 2.23 ERA in that time, he struck out just 22.2% of batters faced in his final eight starts of the regular season while issuing free passes at an uncharacteristic 11.1% clip and never throwing more than 66 pitches during a start. The lefty’s 2023 season came to a close with a disastrous performance in Game 1 of the NLDS where he allowed six runs while recording just one out.

Shortly after the season wrapped up, Kershaw announced that he had undergone surgery on the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. At the time, Kershaw said that he hoped to return “sometime” during the summer of 2024 before indicating back in December that his recovery process was going “really well.” While there have been no updates to the contrary to this point, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio recently offered a more specific timeline for Kershaw’s return to the mound, reporting that the lefty isn’t expected to pitch in the majors until “at least August.” That timeline is on the later end of the summer estimate provided at the time of Kershaw’s surgery, but would still give the lefty ample time to gear up for another crack at the postseason.

Given Kershaw’s lengthy timeline for return, it’s not necessarily surprising that neither side appears to have much urgency in putting pen to paper. Plunkett noted that the Dodgers will be able to put players who expected to miss at least the first two months of the season onto the 60-day IL, thus opening up their 40-man roster spot for the duration of their injury, starting on February 8. With that date less than a week away, it’s hard to imagine Kershaw being officially added to the roster- and thus requiring a corresponding 40-man move- before then, though it’s certainly possible Kershaw’s free agency could extend well beyond that date as well.

Setting aside Kershaw, Gomes made note of one hurler already under contract who’s poised to start the season on the shelf: right-hander Walker Buehler. The GM noted (as relayed by Plunkett) that Buehler’s return to a major league mound for the first time since June of 2022 will be “slow-played”, with both Gomes himself and (per Ardaya) manager Dave Roberts indicating that the righty is likely to start his 2024 campaign late. With that being said, Gomes makes clear that Buehler is not currently a candidate to start the season on the 60-day IL, indicating the club could stand to welcome Buehler back into the rotation mix fairly early into the 2024 campaign.

That the club might look to delay Buehler’s start to the season is hardly a surprise, given comments last month from Gomes noting that the Dodgers would be on a “flexible” innings limit of some sort throughout the year with an eye toward ensuring he’s available for the stretch run and a potential postseason push. It’s understandable that the Dodgers would place a premium on ensuring Buehler is healthy, as the right-hander was among the best starting pitchers in the league from 2018 to 2021, when he posted an excellent 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP across 564 innings of work. In the meantime, Buehler’s absence at the start of the season figures to open up a spot in the club’s Opening Day rotation alongside Yamamoto, Glasnow, Paxton, and sophomore righty Bobby Miller for one of the club’s young arms such as Emmet Sheehan or Gavin Stone.

In terms of more positive injury updates, Gomes told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that infielder Gavin Lux is fully ready for Spring Training after missing the entire 2023 campaign due to a torn ACL suffered last February, while superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani has begun hitting although he has yet to resume throwing after undergoing elbow surgery back in September. Gonzalez adds that Ohtani himself told reporters that he is “very confident” he’ll be in the lineup on Opening Day, setting the stage for the international superstar to appear in the club’s March 20 game against the Padres in South Korea.

DiGiovanna also notes that Gomes expressed optimism regarding veteran right-hander Blake Treinen, who the GM said is “trending” towards a return after missing the entire 2023 campaign and throwing just five innings during the 2022 season. Treinen sports a sterling 2.49 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 229 appearances dating back to the 2018 season, and figures to be a key piece of the club’s bullpen if he manages to make a healthy return to the mound. That being said, the potential return of Treinen hasn’t stopped the Dodgers from pursuing bullpen additions this winter.

West Notes: Buehler, Kershaw, Rangers, Astros, Giants, Yamamoto

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The Dodgers have long seemed likely to lean on the services of right-hander Walker Buehler next season as he returns from rehabbing Tommy John surgery, which will have kept him away from the major league mound for nearly two years by the time Opening Day 2024 rolls around. While the club has recently bolstered its rotation with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the club’s starting corps still offers little certainty beyond that duo, Buehler, and sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller even as youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone show promise.

According to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the club may be more careful with Buehler’s return to action than initially expected. While the right-hander is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training, Plunkett indicates that the club intends to limit Buehler’s innings in 2024, though he relays comments from GM Brandon Gomes that indicate the club is likely to be “flexible” regarding the specific innings total Buehler is allowed to reach and his schedule for the 2024 campaign as a whole. Plunkett goes on to suggest that one possibility would be delaying the start of Buehler’s 2024 season in order to ensure he’ll be available to the Dodgers come October.

If the Dodgers do intend to have Buehler sit out the start of the season, it would further incentivize the club to add additional depth to its rotation even after landing both Yamamoto and Glasnow. Even if the club ends up reuniting with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, the veteran lefty isn’t expected to return to the mound until sometime next summer after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Adding an additional starting pitching option who figures to be ready to go on Opening Day along with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Miller would allow the club to have the likes of Sheehan, Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough battle for the fifth starting job entering the season rather than using them to cover multiple rotation spots.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.
  • Astros center field prospect Jacob Melton was a hot commodity on the trade market at the trade deadline this year, as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome relays comments from Houston GM Dana Brown who told a podcast run by the Astros that Melton was “the one guy [he] was afraid to give away” but that he was asked after in “almost every” trade conversation last summer. Rome goes on to note some officials in the organization internally valued him more highly than top prospect Drew Gilbert, who was part of the package the club dealt to New York to re-acquire Justin Verlander. Melton, 23, was the club’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft and slashed .245/.334/.467 across 99 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.
  • While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • What can the Tigers do about Spencer Turnbull? (16:45)
  • Will the Athletics change their spending habits after they move to Las Vegas? (22:00)
  • Why is the American League Central always so bad and will that ever change? (25:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender – listen here
  • MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire – listen here
  • The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time – listen here

Walker Buehler Won’t Return This Year

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The Dodgers announced that right-hander Walker Buehler, who recently began a rehab assignment after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, won’t return to the club this year. He will instead focusing on getting healthy for 2024.

“My goal since last year has been to return to a major league mound this season,” Buehler says in a club statement. “After many conversations with my doctor, the Dodgers’ front office, training staff and my family, we concluded that waiting until next season is the right course of action. I am disappointed that I will not be able to help this team go after a title in the 2023 postseason, but I look forward to returning fully healthy in 2024 and bringing another World Series to L.A.”

Buehler, 29, underwent Tommy John surgery in August of last year. Given that the recovery period for that procedure often pushes to 14 months or more, his ability to return in 2023 was questionable right from the get-go. Nonetheless, he planned to give it a try, saying earlier in the year that he was targeting a September return. That plan still seemed to be on track as recently as this weekend, when Buehler started a rehab assignment, tossing two innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday.

But it seems that Buehler, along with the various other parties he mentioned, have decided that it’s no longer feasible. It’s unclear exactly what the situation is, but Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that there was no setback and that Buehler still feels good physically. He just hasn’t progressed enough and pushing himself in the next few weeks comes with too high a risk of re-injury.

While it sounds like both the pitcher and the club have agreed that prioritizing his long-term health is the sensible approach, it will be a significant challenge for the club in the short-term given the other challenges they are facing in the rotation. Dustin May required flexor tendon surgery earlier this year and Tony Gonsolin required Tommy John surgery not too long ago. Both of them are now out for the remainder of this year and at least part of next year as well. Julio Urías was placed on administrative leave earlier this week as the league investigates him for a possible domestic violence violation. His situation is unclear but it seems unlikely he will be returning anytime soon.

Those absences, along with today’s news about Buehler, make the rotation start to feel a bit flimsy. The Dodgers are in a healthy place overall with a record of 85-54, putting them 13 games up on the Diamondbacks in the division and eight games ahead of the Brewers for a bye through the first round of the playoffs. But starting pitching takes on magnified importance in the postseason when teams lean on their top pitchers more often.

The Dodgers still have Clayton Kershaw on the active roster, though his health is a big question mark at the moment. He already missed over a month of the season, from early July to the middle of August, due to a shoulder issue. While on the IL, he spoke about how he felt fine but was being told to rest after undergoing an MRI. He’s now been back for over a month but it seems that situation is lingering.

Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic looked into the details this week, highlighting that Kershaw failed to hit 90 mph with his fastball at any point in his most recent outing, despite averaging over 91 mph with the pitch earlier in the year. Kershaw continues to assert that he feels fine, in spite of the clearly diminished stuff. Manager Dave Roberts conceded that Kershaw was still not 100% healthy but insisted he would continue to pitch. “He’s going to keep going until he can’t,” Roberts said. “If he is able to take the baseball, he’s going to take the baseball.”

There’s also Lance Lynn, acquired from the White Sox at the deadline, though he has an earned run average of 6.09 on the year. That mark was 6.47 with Chicago and he initially showed better results after changing jerseys, but he went on to allow 15 earned runs over his two most recent starts. Ryan Yarbrough has a 3.80 ERA but the club doesn’t seem to trust him beyond pitching bulk innings out of the bullpen.

Beyond them, the club is relying on rookies, with some encouraging results in there. Bobby Miller has a 3.80 ERA on the year in his 17 starts and Ryan Pepiot is at 0.86 in his four outings. On the less encouraging side, Emmet Sheehan has an ERA of 5.31 while Michael Grove is at 6.61 and currently rehabbing a lat strain.

All in all, there are plenty of questions in that mix, either due to health or a lack of experience or general ineffectiveness. Bringing Buehler back could have been a difference maker, as he has a 3.02 career ERA in the regular season and a 2.94 mark in the postseason. However, it seems that’s not in the cards and the Dodgers will have to cobble together a playoff rotation without him. Buehler will instead set his sights on the 2024 campaign, which will be important for him personally, as that will be his final arbitration season before he is slated to reach free agency.

Walker Buehler To Begin Rehab Assignment

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Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday, with Alden González of ESPN among those to relay word from manager Dave Roberts. The righty will make at least three rehab appearances before rejoining the big league club, the first of which will be around one or two innings.

Buehler, 29, is a potential difference-maker down the stretch for the Dodgers, both because of his previous levels of excellence and the challenges the club has faced in the rotation this year. From Buehler’s debut in 2017 through 12 starts last year, he owns a career earned run average of 3.02 in 638 1/3 innings. He struck out 27% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.3% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 45.4% rate.

Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in August of last year, putting him on the shelf for the remainder of that campaign. It also was fair to wonder if he would be able to return at any point in 2023, given that the recovery period from that procedure usually pushes towards the vicinity of 14 months. However, he has said this year that he would target a return in September, which seems to still be on the table.

Roberts said Buehler returning as a reliever is not an option, so it seems the plan is for him to return as a starter, though he might not have enough time to be fully ramped up at first. His rehab will start with one to two innings, as mentioned, presumably building his pitch count gradually over a few more outings. He could then return to the big leagues in mid to late September, though perhaps still requiring some kind of bulk pitcher to come in behind him.

Even with some limitations, the Dodgers would surely be thrilled with whatever Buehler can provide. Their rotation has lost both Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin to season-ending surgeries, while Michael Grove is also on the injured list. They acquired Lance Lynn at the deadline and tried to add Eduardo Rodriguez as well, though he used his no-trade clause to block the deal and stay with the Tigers.

They currently have Lynn, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías and Bobby Miller in four spots, with Ryan Yarbrough taking on bulk innings out of the bullpen. Younger pitchers like Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone are on the 40-man and have been bouncing on and off the active roster as needed.

The club is a lock to make the playoffs, as they have a 83-50 record and a 13.5-game lead in the National League West. That puts them nine games ahead of the Central-leading Brewers, making a first-round bye also a strong possibility. That should give them some flexibility with the remainder of their schedule to get a look at Buehler, who could jump into the postseason rotation if all goes according to plan in the next few weeks. Whether he’s still limited to short outings or has been fully stretched out by that point will be determined in the weeks to come. In 79 2/3 postseason innings for his career, he has a 2.94 ERA.

Returning before season’s end would also be good for Buehler personally. He is set to reach free agency after 2024, meaning he would surely love to finish this year strong before going into an important platform season.

Injury Notes: Dodgers, Devers, Manning, Houser

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts provided a host of injury updates this afternoon regarding various relief options for the club as LA hurtles toward their eleventh consecutive playoff appearance, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. While right-hander Tony Gonsolin will not be an option for the club down the stretch this year, Roberts provided updates on a pair of relievers who could still impact the club in 2023: right-handers Joe Kelly and Yency Almonte.

Kelly threw a bullpen session recently but is still struggling with pain in his elbow, per Roberts. The veteran righty, who threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with the Dodgers after joining the club at the trade deadline alongside Lance Lynn, went on the injured list earlier this month with elbow inflammation. According to Roberts, Kelly is expected to return in time for the postseason but there is “a chance he’s not gonna be 100%” when he does. Almonte, meanwhile, has a clearer timeline, with Roberts indicating that the 29 year old is two to three weeks from a return from his knee injury.

Most interesting for Dodgers fans will surely be Roberts’ comments on right-hander Walker Buehler, who’s aiming to return from Tommy John surgery before the 2023 season comes to a close. Buehler hasn’t started a rehab assignment, but Plunkett relays that Roberts still believes Buehler’s long-stated goal of returning to the big league mound for games in September is still on the table, with the manager indicating that the club is planning on Buehler to return to the majors toward the middle of the month. While Roberts notes that Buehler’s stuff is in good shape, his command “hasn’t been good” and is something “he’ll have to work through” on his coming rehab assignment.

Healthy returns to the mound from Kelly, Almonte, and particularly Buehler would substantially deepen the club’s bullpen ahead of the postseason. While the Dodgers have been nothing short of dominant of late with just four losses in August, the club’s bullpen is a potential weak point, ranking roughly middle-of-the-pack in the majors with a 3.83 ERA and having been leaned on for the more innings than any NL bullpen besides those in Cincinnati and San Francisco.

More injury notes from around the league…

  • Star Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers underwent x-rays on his wrist after being hit by a pitch during last night’s game against LA and struck from the lineup this afternoon. Fortunately, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic relays that those x-rays came back negative, per manager Alex Cora. Cora added to reporters that Devers could return to the lineup as soon as tomorrow, depending on how the slugger is feeling. That’s surely a relief for Boston, as the 26-year-old infielder is perhaps the club’s most important and consistent players. Devers is in the midst of another season right in line with his career norms; since his breakout campaign in 2019, he’s slashed .288/.351/.529 with a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 131 wRC+. In 530 trips to the plate this season, Devers has essentially replicated that line, slashing .272/.347/.516 with a 18.7% strikeout rate and a 127 wRC+.
  • Tigers right-hander Matt Manning is preparing to make his next start on Wednesday after exiting his last start with lower back tightness. With that being said, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press indicated yesterday that Manning actually making his start on Wednesday is not a guarantee. Per Petzold, manager AJ Hinch told reporters that the club will “see how the next couple of days are” regarding Manning’s health before determining whether or not he’ll make his start. Petzold suggests right-hander Spencer Turnbull and left-hander Joey Wentz could be options to take the ball on Wednesday should Manning, who sports a 3.93 ERA in 13 starts with the Tigers this season, require a trip to the shelf.
  • Brewers righty Adrian Houser departed today’s start against the Padres after just two innings, having allowed four runs on four hits and a walk. Milwaukee indicated that Houser’s early exit was due to what the club termed “minor forearm tightness.” As relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Houser downplayed the injury’s seriousness in conversations with reporters, indicating he expects to make his next start after taking some time off to rest. Houser’s next start would line up for Saturday against the Phillies, though with a day off on Thursday Milwaukee has the ability to give Houser additional rest without using another starter, should he need it.

L.A. Notes: Kershaw, Buehler, Ohtani, Drury, Trout

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The Dodgers were well-established as searching for pitching upgrades ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline. In the end, they managed to make some minor additions, adding right-handers Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly in a deal with the White Sox and picking up left-hander Ryan Yarbrough from the Royals, but failed to land any of the impactful starters that were moved like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Jordan Montgomery. The club had a deal in place with the Tigers to acquire lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, though Rodriguez vetoed the trade using his 10-team no-trade list, which included the Dodgers. After failing to acquire an impact starter at the deadline, the club will have to lean heavily on the group of arms already in the organization down the stretch.

To that end, the Dodgers relayed good news regarding a pair of arms currently on the injured list yesterday starting with lefty veteran Clayton Kershaw. The 35-year-old future Hall of Famer delivered a 2.55 ERA in sixteen starts prior to going on the IL at the end of June and could return to the mound as soon as next week for the Dodgers. As noted by J.P. Hoornstra of the Orange County Register, Kershaw’s most recent simulated game inspired confidence in manager Dave Roberts to the point that he suggested Kershaw likely won’t require a rehab assignment in the minor leagues before returning to the big league club. Per Hoornstra, one more bullpen session is on the docket for the club’s veteran ace before they decide whether he’ll make his return in Arizona on either Tuesday or Wednesday or wait to face the Rockies at Dodger Stadium later in the week.

The Dodgers also had positive news to offer regarding right-hander Walker Buehler, who has missed the entire season to this point while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. As relayed by Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, Roberts indicated yesterday that Buehler has nearly reached the point in his recovery process where he will begin a minor league rehab assignment. Earlier this season, Buehler expressed a desire to make it back to the majors this year, with a target date of September 1. That goal seemingly remains unchanged, though it was initially thought that a September return for Buehler would likely come as a member of the Dodgers’ bullpen. Roberts indicates that isn’t the case, however, as the righty will be built up as a starter as he aims to return to the majors next month.

A healthy and effective Buehler would be a huge boon for a Dodgers rotation that has seen its starting staff struggle to a 5.86 ERA since Kershaw’s last start back in June. Prior to his injury-shortened 2022 campaign, Buehler had been one of the best starters in the game over the past four seasons, with a 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP across 564 innings of work between 2018 and 2021. That included a sensational 2021 campaign, where Buehler finished fourth in Cy Young award voting after throwing 207 2/3 innings of 2.47 ERA baseball.

More from the other side of town…

  • Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani exited his start against the Mariners yesterday after just four innings due to cramping in his middle finger, as noted by ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. The Angels phenom stayed in the game as a hitter, but the departure continues a worrying trend of issues hampering Ohtani on the mound, as he dealt with a cracked fingernail and blister on that same finger last month. Since his battle against those injuries began, he’s struggled on the mound with a 5.52 ERA across his last five starts. While the combined thirteen scoreless innings from his last two starts would normally be encouraging, the prospect of Ohtani potentially missing a start is a worrisome one for the Angels, who at 56-54 need every win they can get if they’re to make the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
  • While Ohtani’s health is in question, the Angels received a positive update regarding the status of infielder Brandon Drury yesterday, per MLB.com. Drury, who has been on the shelf with a shoulder contusion since the end of June, started a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday and is scheduled to play another rehab game tonight. If that goes well, it’s possible he’ll rejoin the major league roster as soon as tomorrow to contribute to an infield mix that has primarily relied on Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron, Zach Neto, Luis Rengifo, and Eduardo Escobar in recent weeks. When on the field, it’s been a strong season for Drury, who sports a 122 wRC+ in 75 games with the club while playing first and second base for the Angels.
  • While he may not be as close to returning as Drury, the Angels also received good news regarding veteran superstar Mike Trout yesterday. Trout underwent surgery to remove a fractured hamate bone in early July with a four-to-eight week timeline for return. It sounds like Trout’s return may come on the earlier end of that spectrum, as manager Phil Nevin reports that Trout had progressed to hitting off a tee yesterday, per MLB.com, adding that his ramp-up to returning to game action should be a quick one. It’s been a relative down season for Trout, as he’s slashed “only” .263/.369/.493 with a wRC+ of 137 in 81 games. Those excellent numbers may be a far cry from his career wRC+ of 170, but the 31-year-old superstar is well established as not only one of the greats of today’s game, but one of the finest hitters in baseball history.

West Notes: Buehler, Rockies, Blackburn

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Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery last August, and recently told reporters that the date he’s targeting for a return to action this season is September 1. While not unheard of, a 12-month recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery is a rare feat for pitchers, particularly those rehabbing from the procedure for a second time, as Buehler is.

Despite the seemingly long odds, Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted yesterday that the possibility remains on the table, with one notable caveat: Buehler’s return to the Dodgers could come out of the bullpen rather than as a member of the starting rotation. If Buehler indeed makes his return later this season as a reliever, it would be a notable change of pace for the 28-year-old righty. 106 of Buehler’s 115 appearances in the majors have come as a starter, and he has come out of the bullpen just once since the start of the 2018 campaign.

In those 10 1/3 innings of work out of the bullpen so far in his career, Buehler has struggled to a 11.32 ERA. Of course, such a small sample that’s over half a decade old at this point matters far less than Buehler’s more recent work, which has been nothing short of dominant. Since the start of the 2018 campaign, Buehler has posted a phenomenal 2.95 ERA that’s 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with an equally strong 3.22 FIP in 629 innings of work at the front of the Dodgers’ rotation. The highlight of his career to this point came in 2021, when he made an MLB-leading 33 starts while posting a phenomenal 2.47 ERA (171 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP that earned him a top-4 finish in Cy Young Award voting.

Whether as a starter or a reliever, a pitcher of Buehler’s caliber would surely be an asset to the Dodgers both down the stretch and as they gear up for a hypothetical playoff run. While the Dodgers have a plethora of viable rotation options, Dustin May, Julio Urias, Michael Grove, and Ryan Pepiot are all currently on the injured list alongside Buehler, and both Noah Syndergaard and Tony Gonsolin have spent time on the shelf previously this season as well. Given the number of options that could be at the club’s disposal, and the number of injuries they’ve suffered already this season, it’s near impossible to predict what LA’s rotation could look like come September, whether Buehler is ready for a return or not.

More from around the West divisions…

  • In the same article, Heyman also notes that the Rockies have interest in former Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore for a high-ranking front office role, though the club appears to be content with Bill Schmidt as GM. Heyman notes that Moore expressed he hadn’t heard about Colorado’s interest in his services. Nonetheless, it’s notable that the Rockies, a club that has typically been known for hiring within the organization for their front office, would seek the services of an external candidate. Moore was fired by the Royals last season after sixteen years at the helm of the organization, during which he oversaw the club’s 2015 World Series championship. Moore was hired by the Rangers as a senior advisor to the baseball operations department in November.
  • Athletics right-hander Paul Blackburn is poised to make his first start of the 2023 campaign sometime next week, as noted by Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Blackburn started the season on the injured list with a torn fingernail and had the start of his season delayed further by a blister on his pitching hand, but now appears to be close to a return. The 29-year-old Blackburn got his first extended look in the rotation last season, when he posted a solid 3.62 ERA in the first half en route to becoming a 2022 All-Star. Unfortunately, Blackburn would pitch just 14 1/3 innings in the second half, allowing 14 runs in three starts before heading to the IL with finger inflammation. Upon his return to the A’s rotation, Blackburn figures to help steady a group that has featured little certainty beyond JP Sears.

Walker Buehler Targeting September Return From Tommy John Surgery

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Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler spoke with members of the media this week, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and J.P. Hoornstra of The Orange County Register, saying that he has September 1 as a target date to be back in the club’s rotation.

This makes for quite an aggressive timeline, as he underwent Tommy John surgery August 23 of last year. While some pitchers have returned within 12 months of the surgery in the past, the recovery period has become more cautious in recent years and returning that quickly has become rare. Furthermore, this is Buehler’s second TJS of his career, having first gone under the knife in 2015. A second procedure typically comes with a longer recovery period than the first, making his Buehler’s target all the more noteworthy.

“The day I had surgery, [Dr. Neal ElAttrache] told me it was one of the best surgeries he’s done,” Buehler said. “Maybe that was just him trying to make me feel good, but I’ve really taken it to heart.” As it’s laid out by Buehler, it seems that his ulnar collateral ligament wasn’t actually torn, as is usually the case for a Tommy John procedure. Rather, the culprit was bone chips and fragments in his elbow. While the ligament was still replaced, the overall structural integrity of the elbow wasn’t as bad as it normally would be for this surgery. “I don’t think anything has happened that would tell me that’s not an achievable goal,” Buehler said of his September target. He’s also open to returning in a relief role if he runs out of time but that decision will be made as the situation progresses.

Whether all of this actually leads to Buehler returning by the end of the season remains to be seen, but it would obviously be tremendous for both player and team if it did come to fruition. The righty has established himself as one of the better pitchers in the majors in recent years. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 564 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. The 14.3 wins above replacement he accrued in that time, per FanGraphs, was seventh among all pitchers in the majors. He wasn’t quite as effective last year, with his ERA spiking to 4.02 over 12 starts, though it’s possible the looming injury was already starting to affect him in that time.

Getting that kind of pitcher back just in time for the stretch run and postseason would be a nice late-season boost for the Dodgers, who are currently leading the National League West but with just a three-game lead over the Diamondbacks. The club currently has a five-man rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard, though the latter has struggled to a 5.94 ERA so far and May seems bound for the IL due to a flexor pronator strain. Younger pitchers like Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot have been in the mix but are both currently on the injured list, while Gavin Stone also got a spot start recently. It’s impossible to tell what shape the rotation will be in come September given the potential for other injuries or midseason trades, but there’s no doubt that peak Buehler would be an upgrade.

Buehler is making $8.025MM this year, his third of four arbitration seasons as a Super Two player. He’ll be eligible for one more pass through arbitration for 2024, likely making a similar salary due to missing most of 2023, after which he’s slated to reach free agency at the age of 30.

Injury Notes: Seager, Buehler, Maeda, Hiura

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Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is expected to be activated prior to tonight’s game, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The 29-year-old Seager, playing in the second season of a decade-long $325MM contract, has missed the past month due to a hamstring strain. He burst out of the gates with a .359/.469/.538 showing through his first 49 trips to the plate and went 2-for-8 with a double, a walk and no strikeouts in a brief three-game rehab assignment at Double-A. In Seager’s absence, 23-year-old Ezequiel Duran has filled in admirably at shortstop, batting .293/.328/.474 on the season, though his bat has cooled off in the past week or so. Manager Bruce Bochy has been impressed enough that he’s pledged to find “creative” ways to keep Duran in the lineup frequently even after Seager’s return.

A few more injury situations of particular note to keep an eye on around the league…

  • Right-hander Walker Buehler is with the team at Dodger Stadium and will throw in the bullpen for the Major League staff to take a look at his progress in recovering from Tommy John surgery, tweets Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Walker is still a ways from being an option in the big leagues. The 28-year-old’s surgery was performed late last August, and the general expectation surrounding him has been that he’ll at best be an option in the final month or so of the season. Still, the fact that Buehler has already had multiple bullpen sessions in Arizona and is slated for more mound work this week at Dodger Stadium is encouraging for both the Dodgers and their fans.
  • The Twins hope that right-hander Kenta Maeda can resume throwing off a mound by the end of the week, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Maeda hit the injured list with a triceps strain after being tattooed for 10 runs in three innings against the Yankees. He’d previously allowed six runs on 12 hits with a 12-to-1 K/BB ratio in 13 innings (4.15 ERA) after missing the entire 2022 season. The Twins’ rotation depth has been tested early, with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland stepping in for the injured Maeda and Tyler Mahle (Tommy John surgery). A healthy Maeda would again give the Twins six candidates for rotation work, but injuries tend to sort these issues out. And, if everyone is healthy at the same time, the Twins could opt to use Maeda in relief as a means of monitoring his workload after not throwing a pitch last season.
  • Brewers infielder Keston Hiura, currently playing with their Triple-A club, will miss several weeks due to a posterior cruciate ligament injury in his left knee, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Hiura won’t require surgery, but the expectation is that he’ll be out of game action until late next month. It’s a tough blow for the former top prospect, who was hoping to play his way back onto the big league roster after clearing outright waivers earlier this year. He’s out to a .331/.396/.678 start with a dozen home runs through 134 plate appearances with Nashville this season and has trimmed his strikeout rate there to 24.6%. Hiura has had similar stretches in Triple-A before, however, and his familiar strikeout woes have regularly resurfaced upon being promoted back to the big leagues. He batted .226/.316/.449 with the Brewers last year (115 wRC+), but because of a staggering 41.7% strikeout rate, he needed a .355 average on balls in play to get to that middling .226 batting average.
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