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Walker Buehler

Red Sox Interested In Walker Buehler

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The Red Sox are known to be looking for starting pitching, with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow having said that he wants to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have been connected to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried as well as notable trade candidates like Garrett Crochet, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports that Walker Buehler is another free agent they have interest in.

Whether Buehler would count as raising the ceiling would be a matter of debate at this point, as it’s been a few years since he was at his best over a meaningful stretch of time. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 564 innings for the Dodgers, allowing 2.82 earned runs per nine. He combined a 27.7% strikeout rate with a 6.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He also posted good results in 15 postseason starts for the Dodgers in that time.

But in 2022, he had an ERA of 4.02 before requiring Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. He missed the entire 2023 campaign and didn’t immediately bounce back this year. He only made 16 starts in 2024 and had rough results, most prominently a 5.38 ERA. His 18.6% strikeout rate was below league average and also far from his previous form.

He did finish things on a positive note, in a very small sample but on a very big stage. After getting lit up by the Padres in the NLDS, he went on to throw ten shutout innings over his final three appearances of the Dodgers’ World Series run. That included four shutty against the Mets in the NLCS, a five-inning start against the Yankees in the third game of the World Series, followed by the final three outs in game five.

Going into 2025, Buehler is an interesting risk/reward play. His previous upside is tantalizing but he’s been hurt or middling for the past few years. He did have that strong finish in the playoffs but most modern front offices won’t be swayed by such a small sample, even it was under the brightest lights in baseball.

That uncertainty means that Buehler could likely be had for a relatively low price, which could either turn into a bargain or a waste. The Dodgers declined to issue Buehler a $21.05MM qualifying offer at season’s end, evidently not valuing him worth that price point. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Buehler for a one-year deal with a $15MM, though the market for pitching has been stronger than expected, with mid-rotation or back-end guys like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes outearning their projections so far.

Despite the recent results, Buehler has proven to be quite popular this winter, having already drawn the interest of Atlanta, the A’s, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Tigers and now Red Sox. For Boston, they tried a buy-low move last year which hasn’t worked out so far. After a few rough years, they gave Lucas Giolito a fairly modest $38.5MM guarantee on a two-year deal but elbow surgery wiped out his 2024 season.

The injury is not really the fault of the Boston front office but Giolito was a risky choice even before that and it was generally expected they would target more surefire rotation upgrades this time around. The club’s decision makers have talked about being aggressive this winter and putting together a club capable of winning the division, even if that means paying the competitive balance tax.

RosterResource pegs the club’s CBT number at $181MM right now, about $60MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. That means they have plenty of room to go after top free agents like Burnes and Fried, but they are also at least considering a more modest strike for someone like Buehler, or perhaps a combination of the two.

The rotation currently projects to include Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello, with openings at the back. Giolito will be expected back at some point, though likely not at the start of the season. Guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell and Quinn Priester are on the roster but fairly unestablished and still optionable. Alongside Buehler, the Sox could consider other mid-rotation or back-end free agents such as Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

Tigers Interested In Walker Buehler, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney

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It’s no secret the Tigers are looking to improve their rotation over the offseason, and three more potential targets for the team have emerged. According to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, the Tigers are showing interest in right-handers Walker Buehler and Kyle Gibson and left-hander Andrew Heaney.

Buehler is the biggest name of that trio. Although he’s coming off a difficult, injury-plagued season, he was an ace-caliber pitcher when last healthy in 2021. Indeed, from 2018-21, he pitched to 2.82 ERA and 3.56 SIERA over 564 innings. His 14.4 FanGraphs WAR ranked 14th among all pitchers in that time. Still just 30 years old and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, he is widely considered one of the top bounce-back candidates on the free agent market. It helps his case that he looked excellent in the postseason. After a rough outing in the NLDS, he pitched 10 scoreless innings between the NLCS and the World Series.

Precisely because Buehler comes with more upside than Gibson or Heaney, he could be looking for a longer-term commitment. The MLBTR staff predicted a one-year, $15 million contract for Buehler at the beginning of the offseason but noted that a two-year deal with an opt-out was a possibility. Petzold also remarked Buehler could be seeking a two-year deal with an opt-out this winter, and he suggested that might be more than the Tigers are willing to give. Ideally, they’re looking to offer a one-year deal.

In that case, Detroit could pivot to Gibson or Heaney. Of the two, Gibson seems more likely to sign a one-year contract. Both pitchers appeared on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list: Heaney at no. 25 and Gibson at no. 41. Our staff predicted a two-year, $24 million deal for Heaney and a one-year $13 million deal for Gibson. The slightly higher AAV prediction for Gibson reflects his longer track record of success, but at 37 years old, he’s unlikely to command a multi-year deal. Heaney, on the other hand, is young enough (he’ll turn 34 next June) that he could feasibly land a two-year commitment, especially on a market that has been quite kind to mid-tier starting pitchers thus far. Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, and Matthew Boyd all signed for more guaranteed money than MLBTR predicted.

Gibson and Heaney are both coming off similar 2024 seasons. Gibson made 30 starts with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA, while Heaney made 32 appearances (31 starts) with a 4.28 ERA and 3.95 SIERA. Heaney’s underlying numbers were a little promising – he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate – but Gibson has been significantly more consistent and durable throughout his career. Ultimately, both are capable back-of-the-rotation starters but not much more. Either would raise Detroit’s floor, but neither would do much to lift the team’s ceiling.

If a pitcher like Gibson or Heaney is the only starter the Tigers add, they’ll need to hope that some of their younger arms step up to help ace Tarik Skubal at the top of the rotation. That includes Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and potentially top prospect Jackson Jobe. More arms that could make up the rest of Detroit’s starting staff include Keider Montero, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda. In other words, this team isn’t short on back-end depth. What they could really use is a proven, postseason-caliber starter. However, such an acquisition seems far less likely. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, the Tigers have “some interest” in a reunion with Jack Flaherty, but the word “some” speaks volumes in that report.

Ultimately, despite their postseason appearance in 2024, it seems as if the Tigers aren’t planning to be particularly aggressive this winter. As Petzold points out, their interest in signing a starter to a one-year deal mirrors their strategy from the previous two offseasons, in which they signed Michael Lorenzen and Flaherty. There’s no doubt it paid off in both cases; Lorenzen and Flaherty both pitched well over a few months with Detroit before they were flipped for prospects at the trade deadline. However, the Tigers were still in the middle of a rebuild when they signed Lorenzen ahead of the 2023 season and Flaherty ahead of ’24. That’s no longer the case, so it’s odd to see they’re still looking for stopgaps rather than trying to sign a more impactful pitcher to a multi-year deal.

In the same vein, Petzold suggests the Tigers are interested in first baseman Christian Walker but says they might back off if “big-market teams” are also bidding on his services. Moreover, Petzold adds that they are unlikely to sign any free agents who rejected a qualifying offer. Walker is among that group. While the Tigers have been linked to Alex Bregman, who also received a qualifying offer, Petzold writes that they would probably only pursue him if he were still available entering spring training and his price tag plummeted. As is the case with Walker, the Tigers are interested but not interested enough to enter a bidding war. In other words, it seems as if they’d only be willing to sign a QO free agent at a significant discount.

Tigers Seeking Starting Pitching, Have “Some Interest” In Flaherty Reunion

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As the Tigers look to build on the scorching finish to the season that delivered them a trip to the ALDS in 2024, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reported yesterday that the club is expected to target “at least” one starting pitcher this winter. With that being said, Stavenhagen cautions that the club is hoping to stick with short-term additions who can be had on one- or two-year contracts. Stavenhagen also suggests that the club could be hesitant to land a pitcher who received a Qualifying Offer this winter due to the associated loss of draft capital.

That doesn’t mean the club is completely unwilling to explore higher-tier options, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported this afternoon that the club has at least “some interest” in a reunion with right-hander Jack Flaherty. The early movement on the free agent market has generally been focused on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation, ranging from lefty Blake Snell’s massive five-year deal with the Dodgers to smaller moves like the Angels’ signing of right-hander Kyle Hendricks on a one-year pact. Flaherty, who signed with the Tigers last winter and had a resurgent half-season with Detroit before being traded to L.A. over the summer, is the best pitcher remaining on the market who is unattached to draft pick compensation.

While pairing Flaherty with ace lefty Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation is surely a tantalizing idea to fans and would help fortify the Tigers after their surprise return to contention this fall, it’s also possible that they’ll simply look to sign “the next” Flaherty instead of pursuing a reunion; while Rosenthal suggests Flaherty figures to land a deal in the four-to-six year range, Stavenhagen notes that the club hopes to find a “high-upside” pitcher on the market who they believe they can help maximize as they did with Flaherty this past year rather than pay a premium for more established talent. Right-handers Walker Buehler and Michael Soroka as well as southpaw Andrew Heaney could be among the pitchers of that sort on Detroit’s radar this winter.

Stavenhagen goes as far as to note that Buehler could be the club’s “white whale” this winter, but adds that there’s questions about whether or not he’ll need to accept the sort of short-term deal the Tigers are looking to make this winter. That’s a valid concern, as Buehler has received plenty of interest from all corners of the league with the A’s, Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Mets among the teams with reported interest in the righty’s services. MLBTR ranked Buehler 37th on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month while predicting a one-year, $15MM pact for the righty. That’s surely a price tag the Tigers would be eager to have him at, but given the widespread interest he’s drawn to this point and the hot market for starting pitching that has seen multiple players exceed expectations it wouldn’t be a shock to see Buehler land a multi-year deal even after posting a subpar 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts for the Dodgers this year. If Buehler’s market does end up running that hot, it could be hard to justify targeting him rather than spending a bit more to secure a more reliable asset like Flaherty.

If Buehler proves to be out of Detroit’s price range this winter, Soroka and Heaney represent two opposite sides of the spectrum for free agent starters. Soroka, 27, turned in a dominant rookie season with the Braves back in 2019 en route to an All Star appearance, a second-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting and a sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young award. Since then, however, he’s struggled to stay on the field with just 46 innings of work combined between the 2020-23 seasons at the big league level. He was shipped from the Braves to the White Sox last winter and managed 79 2/3 innings of work last year while swinging between the rotation and bullpen.

His results were significantly better as a reliever in Chicago but that hasn’t stopped most interested teams from eyeing him as a rotation option this winter. If Soroka can build on the 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate he posted after being bumped from the White Sox rotation back in May, he would be a strong addition to a Tigers pitching staff that has plenty of depth options but little certainty behind Skubal and Reese Olson. Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda are among the hurlers who could be in the mix for starts with the club next year but none have staked a firm claim to a rotation spot, leaving plenty of opportunity for an unproven upside-arm like Soroka to break into the rotation.

Heaney, by contrast, is a fairly well-established veteran arm at this point. The 33-year-old has been a more or less league average starter for the majority of his career at this point, with a 4.45 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.28 FIP in 851 2/3 innings of work for the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers since the start of the 2018 season. While Heaney flashed some further upside in 2022 when he pitched to a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances (14 starts) for the Dodgers, his subsequent two years with Texas have seen him revert to his solid but unspectacular work as a back-end starter: 307 1/3 innings of work across 66 outings (59 starts) during which he posted a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.34 FIP. While Soroka would be a high-risk, high-reward addition for Detroit, signing Heaney would offer a more stable solution for the club’s rotation who could reliably lessen the workload expected from the club’s other rotation options.

While Stavenhagen only name-checked Buehler, Soroka, and Heaney as potential targets for the Tigers, there are plenty of other arms who could be had on short-term deals this winter. Plenty of fans and media members have speculated on the possibility that the club could look to reunite with either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in free agency this year. The two future Hall of Famers established themselves as among the game’s best pitchers in Detroit during the club’s last competitive window, and betting on one or the other to have something left in the tank in the twilight of their careers could be exactly the sort of short-term, high-upside gamble that Stavenhagen suggests president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are searching for. Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Gibson are among the other veteran starting pitching options expected to sign shorter-term deals this winter who could be plausible fits for the Tigers.

Cubs Considering Walker Buehler, Further Rotation Help

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The Cubs’ two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd became official earlier today, locking in the veteran southpaw as the newest member of the Wrigleyville rotation.  Even with this signing now on the books, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic report that the Cubs remain open to adding more starting pitching, and Walker Buehler is still “on their radar.”

Boyd lines up as Chicago’s fourth starter, behind Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon.  Javier Assad is the favorite for the fifth starter role, with the likes of Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, and Ben Brown also in the mix for starts, plus top prospect Cade Horton also on the verge of his MLB debut.  While this seems like plenty of depth already, the “you can never have enough pitching” mantra may apply, as Wicks, Brown, and Horton all missed a lot of time in 2024 due to injuries.

Acquiring yet another experienced starter via trade or free agency would allow the Cubs to make Assad its top depth arm, and it can be argued that Assad is overqualified for such a role given his solid 3.40 ERA over his 294 career Major League innings.  Since injuries are basically inevitable, however, it stands to reason that Assad would still get some degree of rotation work.  Beyond Assad, one of the other pitchers could potentially become a trade chip if the Cubs feel secure in the number of starters on hand.

The Cubs haven’t exactly been pinching pennies on the rotation during Jed Hoyer’s time as president of baseball operations, considering Taillon’s four-year, $68MM deal and Imanaga’s four-year, $53MM deal.  However, Chicago has trended away from shopping at the very top of the pitching market to instead pursue more mid-range or shorter-term contracts like Taillon, Imanaga, Boyd, or (in the past) Marcus Stroman or Drew Smyly.

Buehler would also likely fall into this category, as it is widely assumed that the righty will sign a one-year pact as something of a pillow contract in the wake of a disappointing 2024 season.  While that disappointment was certainly tempered by a couple of great postseason outings and a championship ring with the Dodgers, Buehler’s regular season saw him post a 5.38 ERA with a host of below-average secondary metrics over 75 1/3 innings.

Since Buehler didn’t pitch at all in 2023 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, it seems possible that he could perform better in 2025 now that he has shaken off the rust.  The baseball world hasn’t forgotten how dynamic Buehler looked prior to that TJ procedure, and this kind of upside potential has led to interest from not just the Cubs, but also such publicly known suitors as the Braves, Yankees, Mets, and Athletics.

As Mooney and Sharma note, it shouldn’t be considered a lock that Buehler will receive just a one-year contract, given how several pitchers have already exceeded expectations in the first month of free agency.  As such, Mooney/Sharma feel the Cubs could prefer to avoid the free agent market and instead pivot to adding a starter (or a reliever, or lineup help) in a trade.  News on that front might not develop until Juan Soto signs, which would then perhaps clear the Cubs’ path in terms of finding a potential trade partner for one of Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki.

Mets Among Teams Interested In Walker Buehler

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Walker Buehler has been among the most popular targets on the rotation market for teams seeking upside on short-term deals, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds the Mets to the growing list of teams with interest in the longtime Dodgers righty. Buehler has also reportedly drawn interest from the Braves, Yankees and even the low-payroll Athletics.

The Mets stand to lose three members of their 2024 rotation, with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana all reaching free agency this offseason. They’ll also be without Christian Scott, their top pitching prospect who made his MLB debut in ’24, for most or all of the 2025 season after he underwent UCL surgery. The Mets already replenished some of those innings with last night’s agreement to sign veteran righty Frankie Montas to a two-year contract, but there’s a clear need for some additional help.

Buehler, 30, was once one of the National League’s most promising young pitchers but has seen that trajectory slowed by injuries. He pitched just 65 innings in 2022 and missed all of the 2023 season while recovering from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. His World Series heroics still loom large in the minds of most fans, but Buehler’s 2024 results on the whole were generally dismal. He totaled only 75 1/3 innings and did so with a 5.38 ERA and the worst rate stats of his career. Even in his first postseason appearance, the Padres roughed him up for six runs in five innings during the National League Division Series.

Buehler’s velocity was down nearly two miles per hour from its 2020 peak, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were way off from his prior career levels (27% and 6.3%, respectively). This past season’s paltry 8.2% swinging-strike rate ranked 190th out of the 204 big league pitchers who tossed at least 70 innings on the year. His career rate coming into the year had been a sharp 11.6%.

Whether Buehler can recapture some or all of his 2018-21 form is a question someone will pay a good bit of cash to find out. Over those four years, he combined to log a 2.82 earned run average in 564 innings, fanning 27.7% of opponents against a 6.1% walk while sitting in the upper 90s with his heater. That upside is tantalizing, but it’s also been three years and one major elbow surgery since we’ve seen that version of Buehler with any real consistency. The Dodgers could’ve made him a $21.05MM qualifying offer in hopes of keeping him but instead declined to make that offer. The lack of draft pick compensation hanging over Buehler’s head will surely enhance his appeal, but it’s also perhaps a red flag that the team that knows him best opted against that one-year offer (despite possessing some of the deepest pockets in MLB).

Buehler fits Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns’ ostensible preference for shorter-term deals that maintain roster flexibility. As Sherman points out, Stearns inked ten free agents last year during his first season in control of the Mets and only guaranteed a second year to Sean Manaea (whose contract gave him the right to opt out of that second year, which he ultimately chose to do). During his time as the Brewers’ president of baseball ops, Stearns similarly avoided the deep waters of the free agent market.

It’s still not fully clear whether that prior mentality will continue to drive his moves in Queens, however. The Brewers never had anywhere near the level of spending capacity the Mets possess, so it’s only natural that Stearns eschewed risky long-term commitments to free agents during his time in Milwaukee. And while he did so last offseason with the Mets, that was in part because the 2024 season was largely viewed as a transitional year while the Mets waited for dead money from the Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and James McCann deals (among a few smaller-scale examples) to come off the books.

The Mets are now about $150MM shy of their 2024 spending levels, per RosterResource. A notable portion of that is earmarked for a hopeful signing of Juan Soto, of course, but there’s no reason the Mets couldn’t take a more aggressive stance elsewhere in free agency and broker some lengthier and more impactful deals for starting pitchers.

What type of deals Buehler commands could ultimately boil down to personal preference. Sherman suggests there are clubs with interest on one-year arrangements and others open to the idea of multi-year deals with opt-out opportunities. Speculatively speaking, Buehler would appear best-positioned if he takes a deal that allows him to return to the market next winter, whether that’s a straight one-year pact or two years with an opt-out. Doing so could position him as a candidate for a nine-figure deal if he bounces back in 2025. However, if he wants to max out right now, there could conceivably be teams willing to offer medium-length contracts with lighter annual values than he’d receive on a straight one-year deal or on a two-year pact with an opt-out.

Yankees Interested In Walker Buehler

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The Yankees and right-hander Walker Buehler have “some mutual interest” in each other, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi.  New York joins the Braves and Athletics as teams already publicly linked to Buehler in the first few weeks of free agency.

The added wrinkle of the Yankees’ pursuit, of course, is that Buehler delivered some of the best moments of his career against the Bronx Bombers during this year’s World Series.  Buehler tossed five shutout innings in the Dodgers’ 4-2 win over the Yankees in Game 3, and followed up that strong start by getting the save in the scoreless ninth inning of Game 5, as Buehler threw the final pitches that sealed the Dodgers’ championship.

Those clutch performances (and four more innings of shutout ball against the Mets in Game 3 of the NLCS) helped bring a happy ending to an otherwise difficult season for the 30-year-old righty.  Buehler missed all of 2023 recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, and returned to post a 5.38 ERA over 16 starts and 75 1/3 innings for Los Angeles during the regular season.  Pretty much all of Buehler’s secondary numbers and metrics were down from his career norms, including an 18.6% strikeout rate that ranked only in the 16th percentile of all pitchers.

It isn’t uncommon for any pitcher returning from a TJ procedure to initially struggle against big league hitters, even if Buehler has the extra baggage of both his 2022 surgery and the surgery he underwent soon after being drafted by the Dodgers in 2015.  Nathan Eovaldi and Daniel Hudson are two of the more prominent examples of pitchers who continued to have success after returning from two Tommy John surgeries, but obviously there’s some risk attached to Buehler going forward, even if the upside is clearly also present.

MLBTR projected Buehler to sign a one-year, $15MM deal this offseason, with the reasoning that he would seek out a pillow contract for 2025 and then quickly return to the market next winter after (hopefully) posting some front-of-the-rotation numbers.  Any number of teams could potentially be fits for Buehler on such a short-term deal, though presumably he would prefer pitching for a contender.

New York fits that description, and the Yankees are at least monitoring the free agent pitching market given reports noting their interest in Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Sean Manaea.  The Bombers have the resources to broadly check in on basically any free agent at least out of due diligence, and the perception is that the club is prioritizing re-signing Juan Soto before any other bigger-ticket offseason business.

Signing Buehler to a one-year deal might not necessarily count as “bigger-ticket” in comparison to those other frontline pitchers who will command hefty multi-year contracts.  Any additions to the rotation, however, would seemingly necessitate a trade since the Yankees already have six rotation candidates on the roster in Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.  Cortes or Stroman are the likeliest trade candidates if New York does indeed add another starter, and moving pitching could allow the Yankees to address other needs in the lineup or bullpen.

A’s Have Shown Interest In Walker Buehler

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The Athletics entered the 2024-25 offseason without a single guaranteed contract on the books for 2025 and a tiny arbitration class, putting them in an odd position. On the one hand, that leaves considerable resources to add to the roster, even by their minimal payroll standards. On the other, persuading free agents to sign with a club that’s going to play the next several seasons in a Triple-A park will be a tall order. The A’s apparently have indeed been out there in the market, as manager Mark Kotsay acknowledged when speaking at this week’s Sports Business Administration Summit at USC that his club has been in contact with right-hander Walker Buehler (X link via Michael J. Duarte of NBC Los Angeles).

A match between the two parties doesn’t feel particularly likely. USC’s Kasey Kazliner adds that Kotsay suggested Buehler was not inclined to play in West Sacramento next season. That’s sure to be a common theme among free agents with any sort of strong market. The A’s will likely have to overpay to persuade free agents, as they did a few years back when handing out multi-year deals to utilitymen Aledmys Diaz and Jace Peterson (neither of which panned out well).

Even with a match unlikely, the Athletics’ interest in Buehler is of some note. It at least signals some intent to shop in a more expensive portion of the free agent pool than they did when signing players like Peterson, Diaz, Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami in recent offseasons. Buehler isn’t one of the top free agent arms on the market necessarily, but he’ll be a popular target in the second or third tier as clubs eye a potential rebound to the front-of-the-rotation form he showed earlier in his career, before missing the 2023 season while mending from his second Tommy John surgery.

Buehler’s regular season return in 2024 was decidedly sub-par. He pitched 75 1/3 innings with an ugly 5.38 ERA and career-worst strikeout and walk rates: 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His average four-seam fastball was 95 mph, about 1.4 mph down from its prior peak. His 8.2% swinging-strike rate ranked 190th among the 204 pitchers who pitched at least 70 innings in 2024 (starter or reliever).

Despite those struggles, injuries elsewhere on the staff thrust Buehler onto the postseason roster. His playoff run got out to a brutal start, as the Padres shelled him for six runs in five innings in his first appearance. It was smooth sailing from there. Buehler pitched 10 more shutout innings with a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio. That includes five shutout frames in Game 3 of the World Series. As fans surely remember, just 48 hours after that five-inning start in Game 3, Buehler came out of the ’pen to set down Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and Alex Verdugo in order, earning a save as he clinched the Dodgers’ World Series championship. It wasn’t the heart of the Yankees’ order, but a World Series-clinching save on 48 hours’ rest is still quite the way to finish out a season.

Buehler’s postseason heroics have left a lasting impression on many fans and pundits, though it’s unclear if big league clubs feel the same. Today’s front offices aren’t typically swayed by a small sample of big-game excellence. At season’s end, Buehler looked like a candidate for a modest one-year deal. That was true even through his first postseason start. Will scoreless starts of four and five innings, plus one gutty relief outing to close out the championship substantially increase his earning power? It seems unlikely. The Dodgers, who know Buehler best of all and are in need of pitching themselves, declined to make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer.

It’s possible that Buehler’s pre-surgery excellence and memorable postseason finish spark some interest on relatively modest multi-year deals. The likelier path to a big free agent payday, however, would be a deal that affords him the opportunity to return to the market next season. Perhaps he could follow the Sean Manaea/Ross Stripling/Andrew Heaney mold and land a two-year pact in the mid-$20MMs with an opt-out provision. Many clubs, however, will view Buehler similarly to Jack Flaherty last offseason and hope to land him on a one-year pact with a solid salary. (Flaherty signed for $14MM.) The Braves are among the teams reported to have interest.

As for the A’s themselves, they’ll presumably bring in rotation help one way or another. JP Sears currently sits atop the staff, but there’s not much certainty thereafter. Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Mitch Spence, tossed 151 innings with a 4.58 ERA, good command and below-average strikeout numbers. Right-hander Joey Estes totaled 127 2/3 frames with even better command but even lower strikeout numbers and a 5.01 ERA. Righty J.T. Ginn had similar rate stats to both and a 4.24 ERA in a smaller sample of 34 innings. Twenty-nine-year-old swingman Osvaldo Bido mopped up 63 1/3 innings with a 3.41 ERA, a strong 24.3% strikeout rate and an ugly 10% walk rate. Flamethrowing righty Joe Boyle sat 98 mph with his heater but posted a 6.42 ERA while walking 17.7% of his opponents in 47 2/3 innings (10 starts). Lefties Hogan Harris and Brady Basso both made a handful of starts in 2024, but both are already 27 and posted more concerning numbers in the minors. The A’s will need some form of rotation help — it’s just a matter of whether they can sway some veteran starters to sign on in West Sacramento or whether they’ll need to pursue more help via trade.

Free Agent Faceoff: Max Scherzer/Walker Buehler

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Three years ago today, the results of voting for 2021’s NL Cy Young award were announced. The top of the ballot featured a somewhat controversial battle between the elite rate production of then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and the volume offered by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with Burnes ultimately taking home the trophy. Finishing just below them in balloting, however, was a pair of hurlers from the playoff rotation that took the Dodgers to the NLCS: right-handers Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler.

Flash forward three years, and things have gone quite well for the first- and second-place finishers for that year’s Cy Young in the NL. Burnes enters this winter as the consensus top free agent pitcher available and could be in line for a guarantee that reaches $200MM, while Wheeler opted against returning to the open market in favor of extending with the Phillies on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this year and now stands as a Cy Young finalist once again alongside Chris Sale and Paul Skenes. Scherzer and Buehler are also headed into free agency this winter, although neither figures to be in line for a nine-figure guarantee like those of Burnes and Wheeler.

Instead, both hurlers figure to enter the open market hoping to re-establish themselves as front-of-the-rotation talents after facing adversity in recent years. Scherzer and Buehler landed the 33rd and 37th spots on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list this winter, as we predicted one-year deals worth $16MM and $15MM respectively for each player. While both hurlers boast ace-level pedigrees and could wind up signing similar contracts this winter, the pair took different paths to get to this point over recent years and their unique challenges and assets could inform the preferences of prospective suitors.

Scherzer’s struggles in recent seasons have been almost entirely about health rather than performance. After turning in 11 utterly dominant starts for the Dodgers down the stretch following a trade from the Nationals at that summer’s trade deadline, the veteran right-hander’s season came to an abrupt end when he was forced out of Game 2 of the NLCS due to a dead arm after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer was unable to bounce-back in time to pitch again for L.A. in that series and ultimately departed the club on the heels of their loss to the eventual World Champion Braves in the series.

After landing with the Mets on a three-year guarantee worth $130MM, Scherzer turned in a dominant 2022 campaign for New York but was limited to just 23 starts due to oblique issues. It was the fewest starts he had made in a full season during his career, and his 145 1/3 innings of work, while hardly out of the ordinary for a starter in recent years, was similarly a full-season career low. The right-hander bounced back in terms of volume in 2023, making 27 starts for the Mets and Rangers throughout the regular season, but suffered on the performance front as he posted a somewhat middling 3.77 ERA (112 ERA+) in 152 2/3 innings of work. Those results improved significantly (3.20 ERA, 135 ERA+) down the stretch following his trade to Texas, but much like 2021 Scherzer struggled with injuries late in the season and was hampered during the playoffs, ultimately pitching just 9 2/3 innings total during the club’s championship run.

While Scherzer’s declining volume and production were somewhat concerning, the future Hall of Famer was still clearly among the top pitchers in the sport even as he began to struggle with injury. Over those aforementioned two seasons, Scherzer combined for 50 starts where he posted an excellent 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate in 298 innings of work. That performance was good for 6.7 fWAR, good for 23rd among all starters across those two seasons and sandwiched between the likes of Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.

Unfortunately for the veteran, however, things took a substantial turn for the worse in 2024 as he suffered from the first truly injury-plagued season of his career. After undergoing back surgery last offseason, Scherzer’s was expected to miss at least the first couple of months of action. That timetable was further delayed by nerve issues, and by the time shoulder fatigue brought his season to an early end in September he had made just nine total starts this season. Those nine starts saw Scherzer pitch effectively, though not close to the ace-level production he had flashed even two years prior. In 43 1/3 innings of work this season, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with a 4.18 FIP, striking out 22.6% of opponents faced while walking just 5.6%.

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s certainly easy to imagine Scherzer providing high quality production whenever he’s on the field, given the league average results he posted while fighting through injury this year and his pedigree as a three-time winner and six-time finalist of the Cy Young award. With that being said, the veteran will celebrate his 41st birthday in July of 2025, and his increasingly detrimental injury woes in recent years leave plenty of questions about just how many starts Scherzer can be counted on for in 2025, particularly in the postseason given the injury questions he faced in 2023, 2021, and even 2019 with the Nationals.

By contrast, Buehler comes with far fewer questions regarding his overall health. That’s to be expected from a player who is a decade and a day Scherzer’s junior. That’s not to say Buehler hasn’t had health issues of his own, of course, as Buehler had nearly two full calendar years of his career wiped out by Tommy John surgery. Buehler returned to the mound for the Dodgers on May 7 of this year after having last pitched in a major league game on June 10 of 2022. The righty has had few injury woes throughout his career aside from his two career elbow surgeries, with a bout of hip inflammation this year and a rib injury back in 2018 representing the only other significant injuries of his big league career.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned Tommy John surgery was actually the second of Buehler’s pitching career. It’s not uncommon for players to struggle after going under the knife a second time, though some pitchers such as Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon have undergone the procedure twice and gone on to be effective for years following their second surgery. Buehler also averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2024, an encouraging sign as it’s right in line with his average prior to going under the knife.

That’s not to say Buehler lacks question marks, however. The right-hander’s 2024 season was nothing short of atrocious. He surrendered a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP that were both more than 30% worse than league average by ERA- and FIP-, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were both the worst marks of his career since he became a full time player in 2018. While Buehler’s solid 15 innings of work during the playoffs (3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP) offer some reason for optimism, particularly as he struck out a third of his opponents in the NLCS and World Series, his atrocious regular season results are difficult to ignore. While Scherzer seems to be a reasonable bet to produce when healthy enough to take the mound, Buehler will need to improve his overall production substantially to be an even league average starter next year even as he flashed his front-of-the-rotation upside late in the Dodgers’ championship run this postseason.

If your team was in the market for a bounce-back starter this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Scherzer’s strong results and lengthy track record of success when healthy despite his age and injury questions, or would you prefer Buehler’s youth and upside despite his brutal results in 2024?

Braves Among Teams With Interest In Walker Buehler

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The Braves are among the clubs showing early interest in free agent righty Walker Buehler, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (video link).

Buehler, 30, reached free agency for the first time this winter and, despite a strong finish to his postseason, is generally viewed as a rebound candidate on the heels of a dismal showing in 2024. This past season marked Buehler’s first year back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career, and some rust was quite clear.

After not pitching at all in 2023, Buehler tossed 75 1/3 innings in the big leagues but was tagged for a 5.38 ERA with career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 18.6% and 8.1%, respectively. His four-seamer, which averaged 96.5 mph from 2017-20, clocked in at an average of 95 mph, per Statcast. He entered 2024 with an 11.6% swinging-strike rate but logged an 8.2% mark in 2024 — ranked 190th out of the 204 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings.

The Padres rocked Buehler for six runs across five innings in his first postseason start, but he went out on a high note. In 10 subsequent innings, he was unscored upon, recording a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio in the process. That includes a pair of scoreless starts (four and five innings apiece), and what will go down as a gutsy closing effort in the ninth inning of World Series Game 5, when Buehler finished off the Yankees to clinch L.A.’s championship just 48 hours after he’d started Game 3.

Atlanta’s need for rotation reinforcements is rather clear. The Braves saw Max Fried and Charlie Morton become free agents when the season ended. Spencer Strider likely won’t be ready for Opening Day as he continues rehabbing from last year’s UCL surgery. The Braves’ rotation, as currently constructed, will be headlined by likely Cy Young winner Chris Sale, converted reliever Reynaldo Lopez and 2024 breakout rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. Options for the fourth and fifth spots at the moment include Griffin Canning (acquired for Jorge Soler), Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Bryce Elder.

Sale, of course, was dominant in a 2024 season that’s already netted him NL Comeback Player of the Year honors and is all but guaranteed to result in his first career Cy Young Award. But as good as he was in ’24, the lefty will pitch next year at age 36 and only pitched a total of 151 innings in the four-year span prior to this Braves renaissance. It can’t (or shouldn’t) be simply assumed that he’s once again good for 29 to 33 starts annually. Similarly, Lopez was excellent but missed time due to a forearm strain while shattering his own recent workload standards. The Braves surely hope that both will be as effective in 2025 as in 2024 — and as healthy or even healthier — but that’s far from a given.

Some form of rotation supplement is likely, and the Braves typically haven’t spent at the levels likely necessary to retain Fried — at least when it comes to free agents. Most of their long-term deals have focused on players who are either early in arbitration or have not yet reached arbitration. Those contracts all typically begin in a player’s mid- or late-20s. Fried will be 31 next year. A reunion seems unlikely, especially with the Braves likely to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and with Fried likely to command an annual value north of $25MM. Atlanta would be facing a tax of at least 50% on Fried’s annual value in 2025.

Exactly what type of contract Buehler will command remains unclear. He was at one point one of the game’s promising young aces, pitching 564 innings of 2.82 ERA ball with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate from 2018-21. That version of Buehler hasn’t been seen in three years, however. It’s possible some clubs feel there’s enough upside to guarantee him multiple years right now. A two-year deal with an opt-out feels feasible, and maybe a club would put down a three-year offer with a more modest AAV and hope for a return to form.

It’s notable, though, that the deep-pocketed Dodgers are the team most familiar with Buehler, his medical history and what to expect from his performance moving forward — and they opted against extending a $21.05MM qualifying offer to the right-hander. On the one hand, that’s good news for his market and gives any club signing him to a short-term deal the possibility of recouping draft pick compensation with a QO of their own if Buehler performs well. On the other, the lack of a QO can be construed as a red flag.

If Buehler is amenable to a one-year deal, he fits the broad profile of what the Braves have targeted in free agent starting pitchers. Last offseason’s three-year deal for Lopez was the first time under Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos that the team signed a starter to a multi-year deal — although even that can be viewed as something of an exception. The team expressed interest in trying to stretch Lopez out from the time of his signing, but there was always a possibility he’d return to a bullpen role if the experiment didn’t work. Anthopoulos has been far more willing to put down market-rate AAVs on relievers (in the $8-11MM range) than on conventional starters. Anthopoulos also knows Buehler better than most free agents, given his former role as the vice president of baseball operations in the Dodgers’ front office — a role he held when Buehler was drafted and was on the rise through the Dodgers’ system.

NL West Notes: Gallen, Marte, Ryan, Graterol, Buehler, Brasier, Muncy, Edman

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The Diamondbacks had a couple of injury scares during Saturday’s 11-1 rout over the Phillies, but neither seems to be a serious concern. Two-time All-Star Ketel Marte exited in the fourth inning after hurting his ankle on a play at second base. Thankfully, the team announced after the game that the injury was merely a left ankle contusion, and Marte is unlikely to miss more than a game or two. He told Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic that he hopes to be back in the lineup on Monday. The 30-year-old is enjoying the best offensive season of his career, with 30 home runs, a .932 OPS, and a 153 wRC+ in 113 games. He is also playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at second base, with 7 Outs Above Average and 11 Defensive Runs Saved.

Meanwhile, Zac Gallen was cruising along through 4 1/3 innings, but he appeared to suffer a lower-body injury after throwing his 87th pitch. He was subsequently pulled from the contest. Following the game, however, he told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that he had a cramp, and he is not concerned about a serious injury. Gallen, an All-Star and Cy Young finalist in 2023, has a 3.69 ERA this season, and the D-backs have won 12 of his 20 starts.

Over in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers also had to pull their starting pitcher in the fifth inning. Top prospect River Ryan was through 4 2/3 scoreless against the Pirates when he started shaking his right hand in discomfort. The team later described his injury as “right forearm tightness” (per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). After the game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com) that Ryan will need an IL stint, and he will get an MRI tomorrow. Until then, the team won’t know how serious the issue is, but the words “forearm tightness” are always worrisome, especially for a hard-throwing young pitcher. Roberts confirmed that Landon Knack will be recalled to take Ryan’s place on the active roster (per Ardaya).

In more positive news, reliever Brusdar Graterol is already playing catch, inspiring hope that he will be able to return before the end of the regular season (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). In fact, he could be back by the end of the month. The right-hander told Plunkett that he could realistically return to the mound in three weeks. If he can meet that optimistic goal, he’d be back in the Dodgers bullpen on August 31. Graterol thought his season was in jeopardy when his injury was originally diagnosed as a Grade 3 hamstring strain. However, that diagnosis was later downgraded to a Grade 1 strain, which is far less severe.

Plunkett also notes that starting pitcher Walker Buehler will return from the injured list on Wednesday to start against the Brewers. Meanwhile, reliever Ryan Brasier is getting ready to rejoin the Dodgers for their series against the Cardinals next weekend. Buehler has been out since June with inflammation in his right hip, while Brasier has been out since April with a right calf strain.

As for position players, Plunkett mentions that Max Muncy and recent trade acquisition Tommy Edman both began their rehab assignments at Triple-A Oklahoma City today. Muncy suffered an oblique strain in May, while Edman has been out all season as he works his way back from offseason wrist surgery.

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