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Wade Miley

Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner

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Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, orĀ Wade Miley. They couldĀ even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…

  • The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
  • It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
  • Speaking of:Ā Andy PettitteĀ played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
  • The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincingĀ Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.

NL Notes & Rumors: Cards, MadBum, Keuchel, Padres, Fish, Bucs

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Even after re-signing Adam Wainwright earlier this offseason, the Cardinals are keeping an eye on the free-agent market for starting pitchers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains.Ā  The team has “had conversations” regarding left-handers Madison Bumgarner, Wade Miley, and Dallas Keuchel, according to Goold, who adds that St. Louis prefers to have right-hander Carlos Martinez return to a starting role after spending all of 2019 as a reliever. If that happens, the Cardinals may have a full complement of starters with Wainwright, Martinez, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas. For now, Martinez is recovering nicely from the right shoulder procedure he underwent in October.

Here’s more from the National League….

  • This has been an aggressive offseason for the Padres, who have signed or traded for Drew Pomeranz, Jurickson Profar, Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham over the past few weeks. The club’s not done yet, though, as it continues trying to find ways to break its long-running playoff drought next season. General manager A.J. Preller said (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) that the team’s still “actively involved in conversations” and “looking to improve our roster” as next week’s Winter Meetings approach. Could that mean signing one of the top starting pitchers available? Not necessarily, as Cassavell writes that the Padres “seem determined not to overpay for the current options on the market.” However, Cassavell suggests the Padres won’t stand pat when it comes to their starting staff.
  • The Marlins are seeking relievers who can do a better job limiting walks than their bullpen cast in 2019 did, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com relays. Miami’s relief corps finished the year with the second-highest walk rate in the game (4.37 per nine), and as president of baseball operations said, “you can’t defend a walk.” Frisaro names longtime Yankees reliever Dellin Betances as a potential target for the club in free agency, though it’s unclear whether that’s anything more than speculation. Betances was often dominant before missing almost all of last season with multiple injuries, but control hasn’t necessarily been his forte. The 31-year-old walked more than 6.5 batters per nine as recently as 2017.
  • Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic (subscription link) tackles the Pirates’ lack of spending in free agency, noting they’re last in the majors in that department since owner Bob Nutting took control in 2007. The Pirates have been loath to hand out multiyear contracts under Nutting, and while they have a new general manager in Ben Cherington, their lack of spending probably won’t change much. This is a new frontier for Cherington, whose previous GM gig came with the deep-pocketed Red Sox. But Cherington did fail on a couple big-money signings in Boston, as the Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval deals went down as regrettable for the club.

East Rumors: Jays, Yanks, Andujar, Mets, Thor

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The Blue Jays had interest in right-hander Jake Odorizzi before he came off the market by accepting the Twins’ qualifying offer Thursday. Now that Odorizzi’s out of the picture for Toronto, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet lists several free-agent starters who remain on the team’s radar. They have some level of interest in Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Tanner Roark, Michael Pineda, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Dallas Keuchel, according to Davidi. Of course, some of those names are more realistic than others for the rebuilding Blue Jays, whose inability to pry Odorizzi from Minnesota “shows their restraint from previous winters remains strong and steady,” Davidi argues. On the other hand, though, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet has heard from multiple agents who, in discussing their clients with the Jays early this offseason, “have noticed a change in tone compared to years past.” One thing appears certain: The team’s casting a wide net as it seeks much-needed rotation help.

  • Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar was an offensive standout as a rookie in 2018, but a shoulder injury dragged down his production this year and ended his season in mid-May. However, according to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, Andujar’s adverse 2019 hasn’t diminished teams’ enthusiasm for the 24-year-old. “I’m definitely getting a lot of interest in Miguel Andujar,” Cashman revealed to Michael Kay and Don La Greca of 98.7 FM ESPN New York (audio link). That doesn’t mean the Yankees will trade Andujar, though the defensively challenged slugger has at least temporarily lost his hold on third. Cashman suggested Gio Urshela, who posted an out-of-nowhere breakout season as Andujar’s replacement, is the favorite to continue as the Yankees’ top option at the hot corner. With that in mind, the Yankees are at least considering trying to make Andujar a multi-positional player – someone who can also line up at first and/or in the outfield. Whether or not that comes to fruition, Cashman continues to regard Andujar as “an exciting young talent.”
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said at the beginning of October that the club’s not going to trade right-hander Noah Syndergaard this offseason. A month and a half later, Van Wagenen hasn’t changed his mind. Teams have called about Syndergaard, but Van Wagenen has rebuffed them, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. The Mets, if they plan to contend in 2020, don’t seem to be in position to trade Syndergaard. After all, they’re already likely to lose one of their best starters in Zack Wheeler. And Syndergaard’s projected to make an affordable salary ($9.9MM) next year, which is crucial for a New York team that appears to lack financial flexibility.
  • Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier has been popular in trade speculation for years, though the club has held on to him despite a logjam in the grass. Could the Yankees finally part with Frazier this winter? Ken Davidoff of the New York Post discusses Frazier’s trade value with multiple anonymous executives, who unsurprisingly opine that the 25-year-old’s appeal has dipped somewhat. Defense has been a problem for Frazier, who spent a good portion of 2019 in the minors working to improve in that area. He did, however, collect a career-high 246 MLB plate appearances in 2019 and bat an adequate .267/.317/.489 with 12 home runs. Cashman admitted Frazier “took a step backwards” in 2019, though the exec’s encouraged that Frazier has “already proven he can play in New York.”

Wade Miley Left Off Astros ALCS Roster

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The Houston Astros announced their roster for the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees, which begins tonight in Houston. Two changes were made from the ALDS…

Wade Miley and Myles Straw are the two casualties from the NLDS group. Miley would have been a candidate to start game four, but momentum has moved increasingly to Jose Urquidy to get the nod for that game. Straw appeared in games 1 and 2 of the ALDS as a pinch-runner, but he is a numbers casualty here as the Astros decided to carry a 12th pitcher.

Right-handers Bryan Abreu and Brad Peacock join the group. Peacock can serve as a long man out of the pen, or he could be a candidate to start the fourth game of the series. Abreu is an especially interesting add, as the 22-year-old has just 7 big league appearances under his belt. A high-spin-rate curveball is his trademark pitch, and though he was a starter in High-A and Double-A for most of the season, his 6 September appearances were enough to prove his postseason utility to the Houston brass. He struck out 13 batters in 8 2/3 big league innings, giving up just 4 hits.

Here’s the complete 25-man unit:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

None

Infielders

Outfielders

Catchers

Miley’s absence is the most notable for a couple of reasons. He provided steady production for most of the season, finishing 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP across 33 starts and 167 1/3 innings. He also saw postseason success for last season’s Brewers when he carried a 1.23 ERA over 14 2/3 postseason innings.Ā He appeared in game three of this year’s ALDS, surrendering 4 hits and 2 earned runs across 2 2/3 innings in relief of Zack Greinke. Miley is a free agent at the end of the season after signing a one-year, $4.5MM deal with Houston this offseason. Being left off the ALCS roster is not likely to affect the market for his services this winter.

Without Miley, the Astros aren’t carrying a single left-handed pitcher on the roster. The Yankees are flush with right-handed power hitters, so it’s not necessarily a glaring need, but it’s still worth noting. Of course, the Astros have gone without a lefty in their pen for stretches of the season, and it’s a cosmetic issue nonetheless. Pressly, Harris, James, Osuna, and Urquidy have all fared as well or better against lefties this season as against righties, despite the unseemliness of throwing with their right hand.

AL Notes: Yankees, Miley, Vladito

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post had an interesting profile today of a Yankees pitching staff at a crossroads (link). After losing Domingo German and Dellin Betances to suspension and injury, respectively, over the past several days, the AL East-champion Bombers find themselves with a pitching picture very much in flux.Ā ā€œI donā€™t look at it as frustrating,ā€ pitching coach Larry Rothschild told Sherman. ā€œI look at it as a problem to solve. We have to figure out what we are going to do. You would love to have those two guys obviously. But we donā€™t, so we have to move forward.ā€Ā As Sherman points out, German’s loss may be particularly impactful, as his multi-inning ability may force skipper Aaron Boone to opt for a 13-man pen in the playoffs instead of a 12-man pen.

While Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Aroldis Chapman, and Zack Britton are all ’locks’ for the postseason staff, the final spots are more of a toss-up after the team’s loss of German and Betances. Luis Cessa, Cory Gearrin,Ā Tyler Lyons, Stephen Tarpley, Ben Heller, and Jonathan Loaisiga are names floated by Sherman as possibilities to round out Boone’s October pen corps.

More notes from around the AL this Saturday eve…

  • The Astros are facing what the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome deems a “full-fledged fourth starter crisis” after another uninspiring performance from the previously steady Wade Miley (link). In Saturday’s game against the Angels, Miley failed to complete more than one inning for the third time in four starts. The 32-year-old Miley had looked to be a coup for the Astros front office after signing a one-year/$4.5MM deal this offseason, with a 3.06 ERA through his first 156 innings this year. Unfortunately, the calendar’s turn to September has spelled doom for Miley, who has allowedĀ 18 earned runs in 7 ā…“ September innings. Manager A.J. Hinch is voicing somewhat of a hedged belief in the experienced lefty:Ā “We’re going to figure it out,” manager A.J. Hinch told Rome. “He’s going to be really effective for us. But given the time, it’s a difficult time to assess because he’s got one start left before we need to make some decisions.” Looking back, regression was probably coming for Miley all along, as those first 156 innings were undermined by a .263 BABIP and 4.36 FIP mark.
  • In a somewhat more humorous note to conclude tonight’s news, Sportsnet’s Arash Madani passes along an eyebrow-raising nugget concerning Blue Jays rookie Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero Jr., it seems, doesn’t owe his prodigious power to an intensive weight room regimen:Ā ā€œIā€™ve never worked out at the gym before,” Guerrero Jr. told Madani. “Iā€™ve never lifted weights before.ā€ While it’s roundly mystifying to consider that “Vladito” has achieved phenomenal athletic fame without ever committing himself to either a ’leg’ or ’upper body’ day, it still may be disconcerting to Jays fans taking a sidelong glance at the youngster’s to-this-point suspect defense. Vlad Jr. has logged a -4 DRS figure in 792 innings at third base this year, with 17 errors to his credit. Guerrero Jr. tells Madani that he will be newly committing himself to weight training this offseason with the intent of remaining at third base moving forward.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Wade Miley

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Left-hander Wade Miley was one of the most cost-efficient free-agent signings in each of the previous two offseasons. He was highly successful as a Brewer in 2018 after settling for a minor league contract, and has continued to thrive this year as an Astro on the heels of taking a major league pact worth $4.5MM. Over the past season and a half, Miley ranks 14th among qualified starters in ERA (3.11).

Understandably, plenty of skepticism has accompanied Miley’s ability to prevent runs. Since 2018, only 20 qualified starters have registered a worse FIP than Miley’s 4.42, while he also falls toward the low end of the majors in SIERA (4.68; 19th from the bottom) and xFIP (4.44; 25th). One of the problems has been Miley’s K/BB ratio, which was especially poor last year after he struck out 5.58 hitters per nine and walked 3.01 across 80 2/3 innings as a Brewer. But Miley has improved significantly in that category through 141 2/3 frames as a member of the Astros, with whom he has struck out 7.43 and walked 3.05. While still unspectacular, those numbers are right in line with the former Diamondback, Red Sox and Mariner’s career totals (7.13 K/9, 3.12 BB/9).

Clearly, the 32-year-old Miley has never been anywhere near elite at racking up strikeouts or limiting walks, in part because of a fastball that clocks in at just about 91 mph. But Miley has typically induced a solid number of ground balls while limiting home runs, which has continued this year.

As a member of the Astros, Miley has forced grounders at a 52.4 percent clip and allowed homers on 15.1 percent of fly balls – both of which are well above average. He has also been tough on both lefties, whom he has held to a .255 weighted on-base average, and righties (.295). And good luck hasn’t been the driving force behind Miley’s ability to stymie hitters, as Statcast indicates the .289 wOBA he has given up is actually worse than his .282 expected wOBA. Miley’s xwOBA ranks in the majors’ 81st percentile, while his exit velocity against (70th), expected batting average (75th), hard-hit rate (81st) and expected slugging percentage against (84th) also sit toward the top of the majors.

The success Miley has enjoyed over the past couple years has come with a change in repertoire. When he was a member of the Orioles in 2017, batters had their way with Miley, who pitched to a bloated 5.61 ERA in 157 1/3 innings of work. Miley’s career (or at least his time as a useful major leaguer) looked as if it was nearing an end then, but he has since revived it with a more cutter-heavy approach. He threw the pitch 14.3 percent of the time in 2017, per Statcast, but has used it at a 41-plus percent clip in both seasons since then. Miley has tossed it a personal-high 46.8 percent of the time this year, and hitters have recorded a modest .311 wOBA/.315 xwOBA against it. Miley’s other most common pitches – his changeup (19.6 percent; .198 wOBA/.191 xwOBA) and four-seamer (16.4 percent; .272/.258) – have confounded the opposition even more.

Despite the success Miley has enjoyed going back to 2018, the soft-tossing southpaw still isn’t a particularly exciting option. His earning power will always be somewhat limited as a result, but Miley should at least do better than the contract he raked in last offseason. A multiyear pact might be in the offing this winter for Miley, who will fall behind far more expensive hurlers such as teammate Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, perhaps among others, on the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros Sign Wade Miley

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Feb. 1: The Astros have formally announced the signing. Houston’s 40-man roster is now at 39 players.

Jan. 31: The Astros have agreed to a one-year deal with lefty Wade Miley, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The O’Connell Sports Management client receives a $4.5MM guarantee and can tack on $500K in incentives, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds (TwitterĀ links).

Miley becomes the latest mid-range starter to settle for a one-year pact after entering the offseason with a case for a multi-season arrangement. He’ll presumably step into the Houston rotation, though his incentives package includes provisions allowing him to earn either for starts or relief appearances, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post (Twitter link).

This trip through free agency may not have been quite as financially rewarding as Miley might have hoped, but he landed with a clear contender and certainly fared better than he did the last time around. Miley settled for a minors pact last year with the Brewers after a rough two-season run, but turned things around after overcoming some health issues early in the season.

All told, Miley worked to a 2.57 ERA in 80 2/3 frames over 16 starts last year in Milwaukee. He averaged only 5.6 K/9 with 3.0 BB/9, but generated a robust 52.8% groundball rate and allowed only three home runs on the year.

In some regards, Miley was not a substantially different pitcher last year than he had been over the prior seven seasons. His swinging-strike rate sat just a half percentage point above his lifetime 8.6% mark; his average fastball velocity sat right at his career mean of ~92 mph. But that only tells part of the story, as Miley drastically revamped his arsenal in a manner that obviously paid dividends.

In particular, MileyĀ ramped up usage of his cutter, which became his most-used and most-effective pitch, while burying his sinker and slider in favor of enhanced usage of a curve and change. He surrenderedĀ much more pull-side contact than before, but with a career-high 2.24 GB/FB rate, the shift-savvy Brewers were able to gobble up quite a few of those well-struck balls. Miley also induced weak contact on 19.5% of the balls put in play against him and ended the season with aĀ career-low .269 BABIP-against.

That last figure — batting average on balls in play — is an interesting one to consider. Any change in Miley’s fortunes in that area, or in the number of balls that leave the yard, could reverse his turnaround. First, though, opposing hitters will have to find a way to solve Miley’s two favorite new offerings; they managed sub-.200 batting averages and sub-.300 slugging percentages against both his cutter and curve last year. Statcast was duly impressed, as it credited Miley with a .300 xwOBA that largely supports the weak .283 wOBA mark he held batters to.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Possible Brewers Free Agent Targets

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The Brewers already made one significant free agent acquisition this winter, snagging backstop Yasmani Grandal on a one-year arrangement when he failed to find a multi-year deal to his liking. It seems the organization is still eyeing some additional potential targets, according to a report from Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links).

Most intriguingly, Haudricourt says that he’s heard of at least some connection between the club and veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who’s the best free-agent starter still on the open market. Fellow lefty Gio Gonzalez is also an apparent possibility, as is third baseman Mike Moustakas. Both of those players, of course, spent the back end of the 2018 campaign in Milwaukee.

As Haudricourt points out, all three of the aforementioned players are clients of Scott Boras. The super-agent has seemingly struck up a chummy relationship with Brewers owner Mark Attanasio over the years. Indeed, they were able to line up on a rare extension of a star Boras client (Carlos Gomez).

Of course, that sort of connection will only go so far, particularly since Attanasio has relied heavily upon the judgment of recently promoted president of baseball operations David Stearns. To this stage in his tenure, Stearns has eschewed large pitching entanglements.

A large and lengthy deal for Keuchel, then, would be especially surprising. Still, it would make some sense for the organization not only to seek a rotation upgrade, but to target a lefty starter in particular. Virtually all of the team’s rotation or long-relief options throw from the right side. Though the bullpen includes two valuable southpaws (Josh Hader and Alex Claudio), skipper Craig Counsell could gain some additional game management possibilities if he can run a southpaw out to start every fifth day.

The Brewers already proved willing to take that sort of thinking to the extreme when they sent out lefty Wade Miley to pitch to just one batter during the fifth game of the National League Championship Series. Interestingly, despite a bounceback campaign last year, Miley himself does not seem to have been targeted to this point for a reunion. The 32-year-old did not exactly have the peripherals to support his 2.57 ERA, but he rewarded the Brewers for the opportunities they were willing to give him and it seemed reasonable to anticipate the team would have some interest.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether Stearns has any more tricks up his sleeves this winter. While the team’s rise to the NL Central title last year has certainly raised the bar in Milwaukee, projection systems are not exactly enamored of the present roster. The middle infield unit is a less-than-inspiring bunch, at least on paper, while the rotation is more notable for its depth than its evident upside. Though there is no clearly dominant team in the division, it seems to be competitive from top to bottom. While the organization likely remains optimistic with the current batch of players, it stands to reason that Stearns is still working on potential additions.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Miley, Reyes

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Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein held an interesting chat today with Waddle and Silvy of ESPN Chicago (audio link). He likened his desire to acquire a premium free agent to a second helping of dessert — of course, he wants it, but he just can’t have it — and says the organization still believes it can find improvement from its current roster. Epstein insists there’s positive energy within the friendly confines; despite the lack of roster activity, he says, the offseason has otherwise been a proactive one in which the entire organization has focused on hitting the ground running from the start of the present season. At the tail end of the talk, the veteran baseball executive also gives a detailed account of the organization’s stance on embattled shortstop Addison Russell. It’s well worth a listen, regardless of one’s general viewpoint on that subject.

Elsewhere in the division…

  • The Brewers still have interest in bringing Wade Miley back to the organization, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy in his latest inbox column, and Miley thoroughly enjoyed his time with the Milwaukee organization. However, Miley’s camp is still holding out for a multi-year deal, and the Brewers have a fairly large collection of arms from which to choose as it is. Jimmy Nelson, Jhoulys Chacin, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Zach Davies, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra and Adrian Houser are all options to start for Milwaukee. Given that depth, it seems that GM David Stearns is content to see if Miley’s price (or the price for any pitching target) comes down to a more palatable point.
  • The Cardinals still don’t have a defined timeline regarding right-hander Alex Reyes’ return from shoulder surgery, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The prized 24-year-old prospect has been throwing recently, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells Goold that Reyes is “long-tossing without limitation.” The expectation, per Mozeliak, is that Reyes will progress to mound work within the next two weeks. However, he’ll also have an “individualized build-up” in Spring Training, and his return to pitching in a game setting will be determined based on milestones within that personalized program. Reyes has long been touted as one of the game’s most promising arms, but he’s never reached 120 innings in any professional season. Given that he’s already had Tommy John surgery and now last year’s shoulder surgery, one can imagine the Cardinals will be particularly cautious in getting him back up to speed.

Nationals Have Shown Interest In Brian Dozier, Wade Miley

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The Nationals have expressed interest in free-agent second baseman Brian Dozier, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. They’ve also shown recent interest in free-agent left-hander Wade Miley, Dougherty adds, backing up an earlier report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Dozier joins the previously reported DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as free agents who have been on the radar of the second base-needy Nationals this winter. However, Dougherty casts doubt on the possibility of Washington reeling in LeMahieu, who figures to receive the richest contract among the three. Regardless, with only Howie Kendrick – who’s coming off a ruptured Achilles – and the light-hitting Wilmer Difo as experienced options at the keystone, the Nationals may well attempt to upgrade there before the 2019 campaign begins.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Dozier would head to D.C. on a one-year, $10MM accord. Had he reached free agency a year ago, though, it’s likely Dozier would have landed a much more lucrative payday. Dozier was then coming off a five-year stretch with the Twins in which he racked up 21.7 fWAR (17th among position players) and 145 home runs (13th). Along the way, he authored a pair of the most powerful years in the history of second basemen – the 2016-17 campaigns, during which he combined for 76 homers (including 42, an American League record for his position, in ’16).

Dozier’s stock was certainly high 12 months ago, but it may now be at a nadir relative to the rest of his career. As a member of the Twins and Dodgers last season, Dozier did mash another 21 HRs and steal 12 of 15 bases in 2018, giving him five consecutive campaigns with 20-plus long balls and six straight with double-digit stolen bags. However, across 632 plate appearances, the 31-year-old only managed a .215/.305/.391 line – good for a 90 wRC+, the worst full-season mark of his career – and his lowest ISO (.175) since 2014. Statcast suggests Dozier didn’t deserve better than his offensive production, as his paltry expected weighted on-base average (.288) actually fell short of his real wOBA (.304). Dozier also earned negative marks in the field, with minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. In all, the 2018 version of Dozier was worth less than a win above replacement at FanGraphs.

While Dozier’s on the market at a less-than-ideal time, the opposite may be true of Miley. After settling for a minor league pact with the Brewers last year, the former innings eater rebuilt his stock to a degree by notching a 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP and a 52.8 percent groundball rate over 80 2/3 frames with the World Series contenders. The 32-year-old Miley’s success came in spite of subpar strikeout and walk rates (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball percentage (5.2), which could dampen enthusiasm about his future. Nevertheless, MLBTR estimates he’ll sign for two years and $12MM – a nice guarantee considering where his stock was a year ago.

Whether Miley will get his next contract from the Nationals is questionable at best, of course. They had interest in Miley between trading Tanner Roark to Cincinnati on Dec. 13 and signing Anibal Sanchez on Dec. 20, per Dougherty. While Dougherty doesn’t rule out a Miley signing, the Nats’ rotation may be set with Sanchez slotting in behind the all-world trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and likely in front of either Joe Ross or Erick Fedde.

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