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NL Central Notes: Cozart, Cubs, Cardinals

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Despite coming off a roughly five-win season, Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could face a difficult market in free agency, writes Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Buchanan quotes an exec from the American League and another from the National League who suggested that Cozart would struggle to match even the three-year, $40MM pact attained by J.J. Hardy at a similar age three offseasons ago. A lack of contending teams in clear need of a shortstop is working against Cozart, as is the fact that he doesn’t have a track record of producing at his 2017 levels. An NL exec opined that Cozart could expand his market by adopting a super-utility role in which he started a couple of times per week at shortstop, second base and third base, though Buchanan notes that Cozart “feels strongly” about remaining a shortstop. Cincinnati is thought to be “leaning heavily against” a qualifying offer for Cozart, per Buchanan, which would certainly help his free-agent stock. From my view, it still seems likely that a team will ultimately see Cozart as too good a value not to find a spot for him at a certain point. It’s difficult to see his market falling below even the three-year, $33-36MM range, as even if he doesn’t replicate his 2017 excellence at the plate, he could still be reasonably expected to more than justify that level of commitment.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • The Cubs need to replace 40 percent of their starting rotation in 2018, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score, adding that the team is “expected” to pursue an acquisition similar to its July pickup of Jose Quintana (i.e. a controllable arm on the trade market). Levine speculatively lists former Cub Jeff Samardzija (now the Giants and owed $58.5MM through 2020) and Rays right-hander Chris Archer (owed $34MM through 2021, with the final two years being club options) as possibilities. Of course, the Giants have shown no inclination that they’ll be selling off veteran pieces this winter, and the Rays have no pressure to move Archer, whose contract is one of the most affordable commitments to any established starter in the big leagues. Levine also notes Alex Cobb as a potential free-agent target, noting the righty’s connection to manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey — each of whom knows Cobb well from their days with the Rays.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has posted highlights from a lengthy, comprehensive chat on the Cardinals and their offseason plans. There are more than a dozen interesting scenarios covered within, including the team’s search for a closer, the need to add a known quantity to the middle of the lineup and the possibility (or lack thereof) various players currently on the roster will be moved. Goold notes that the Cardinals have had interest in Brandon Morrow on multiple occasions in the past and notes that he could well be a target if the Cardinals ultimately decide to pursue multiple arms and have a competition for the ninth inning next spring. He also adds that St. Louis will likely pursue top-end closers (e.g. Wade Davis, Greg Holland), though the Cards will have obvious competition on that front. Any who track the offseason closely, especially fans of the Cardinals or other clubs in the NL Central, will want to take a full look for some insight into the Redbirds’ upcoming plans.

NL Notes: Cubs, Cards, Fowler, Braves, Marlins

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The reigning World Series champion Cubs stumbled through the early months of the season, which led president Theo Epstein to inform teams in early July that he’d consider selling impending free agents such as Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago reports. The Cubs were at their lowest point of the season on July 9, when they dropped to 43-45 with a 14-3 loss to the Pirates in the last game before the All-Star break. Regarding his thought process at the time, Epstein told Mooney: “Not blowing it up. But when you’re five-and-a-half out, if you have a bad road trip and a bad homestand and then you’re 10-and-a-half out, absolutely, we would have sold.”  Instead, Epstein swung a blockbuster trade with the White Sox for left-hander Jose Quintana on July 13, the final day of the break. The Cubs proceeded to go 49-25 in the second half of the season to finish 92-70 and run away with the National League Central.

More from the NL:

  • The Cardinals may deal from their surplus of outfielders this offseason, but the highest-paid member of the bunch, Dexter Fowler, seems unlikely to go anywhere. When the Cardinals signed Fowler to a five-year, $82.5MM contract last winter, they included a no-trade clause in the deal. Now, Fowler tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he and his family love their new city. He also enjoys being part of the Cardinals organization. “I see myself being here for a long time. It’s what I signed up for,” the center fielder said. “That’s what my contract says. I’m looking to build a legacy with my teammates.” Fowler had a terrific offensive season to kick off his Redbirds tenure, hitting .264/.363/.488 with 18 home runs in 491 plate appearances, but injuries limited him to 118 games and advanced metrics indicate he had a rough time in the field (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-5.9 Ultimate Zone Rating).
  • The hammer dropped Monday on Braves general manager John Coppolella and special assistant Gordon Blakely, both of whom resigned over alleged rule violations. Their departures might not be the end, either, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more members of the Braves’ scouting department forced to resign.
  • Given that he’s close with Gary Denbo, Blakeley would have been a possibility to join the Marlins’ front office, but that’s now in question after Monday’s events, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Denbo is currently with the Yankees, but the expectation is that he’ll join friend and new owner Derek Jeter in the Marlins’ decision-making hierarchy, Jackson notes. Meanwhile, there’s a sense that the Marlins will retain manager Don Mattingly and president of baseball operations Michael Hill, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Hill isn’t a lock to remain in the same role, suggests Frisaro, who adds that third base coach Fredi Gonzalez could depart. The Tigers have asked to speak with Gonzalez about becoming their next manager, according to Frisaro.

Red Sox Tried To Acquire Wade Davis From Royals

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Before Boston acquired reliever Tyler Thornburg from Milwaukee on Tuesday, the Red Sox made a run at then-Kansas City closer Wade Davis, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. Corner infielder Travis Shaw was the major league headliner the Red Sox surrendered for Thornburg, but he wasn’t enticing enough to the Royals in a Davis deal, a source told Bradford. The Royals instead preferred now-former Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler, whom they acquired for Davis in a one-for-one swap on Wednesday.

[RELATED: Thornburg, MLBTR contributor Burke Badenhop chat about the trade]

Landing Davis would have given the Red Sox two of the majors’ most proven closers in him and Craig Kimbrel, though the former has more setup experience and likely would have served in that role in Boston. Davis has been dominant since 2014, his first year as a full-time reliever, but picking up him instead of Thornburg would have put a greater dent in the payroll of a Red Sox franchise that’s trying to stay under the $195MM luxury-tax threshold. The 31-year-old Davis would have cost the team $10MM in 2017, the last season of his contract, while Thornburg is set to rake in a much more modest salary (an estimated $2.2MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) in his age-28 campaign. Thornburg is controllable through 2019 via arbitration and could potentially give the Red Sox a top-caliber setup man over the next three seasons. While he doesn’t have Davis’ track record, Thornburg is nonetheless coming off a breakout year, having recorded a 2.15 ERA, 12.09 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 across a career-high 67 innings.

As is often the cases with pitchers, both relievers carry health risks: Davis was on the disabled twice last season because of forearm and flexor strains, and the Brewers shut down Thornburg early in 2014 on account of a UCL injury that nearly led to Tommy John surgery.

Meanwhile, that the Royals went for the upside play in Soler over Shaw is understandable. The soon-to-be 25-year-old Soler’s also younger (2017 will be Shaw’s age-27 season), though he comes with less control. Shaw won’t be a free agent until after the 2021 season, and he has two pre-arbitration years remaining, whereas Soler can hit the open market at the end of the 2020 campaign. He can also opt into arbitration beginning next winter, which seems likely if he comes closer to realizing his vast potential. For now, though, the Cuba native is due a modest $15MM over the remainder of the nine-year, $30MM contract he signed with the Cubs in 2012.

Latest On The Cubs’ Bullpen

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The Cubs have already added Wade Davis and Brian Duensing to their bullpen, but they’re still trying to add depth, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. Ideally, they’d like to add another lefty, and they’ve been in touch with Travis Wood about returning.

But Wood’s agent, Darek Braunecker, says his client has attracted interest from seven NL teams, as ESPN’s Jesse Rogers noted today. Those clubs value Wood’s versatility and hitting ability (Wood has a career .182/.208/.314 line, strong for a pitcher), and Wood would also like another shot at starting, a chance he’s unlikely to get with the Cubs. So a return to Chicago is far from a certainty.

Another possibility for a left-handed addition to the Cubs’ bullpen is Jerry Blevins, who posted a 2.79 ERA, 11.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 42 innings in a specialist role for the Mets last season, Wittenmyer writes. And the Cubs remain interested in righty Greg Holland, the former Royals closer who’s returning from Tommy John surgery and should be fully healthy for Spring Training. The team could also consider adding a bullpen piece in tomorrow’s Rule 5 Draft.

In the meantime, the Cubs’ addition of Davis will bump Hector Rondon back into a setup role, even though Rondon has had success as a closer in parts of each of the last three seasons. Manager Joe Maddon, though, says Rondon understands the move.

“He understands Wade being there,” says Maddon. “He was great. I told him how much I respect him. And he’s all about the team. It’s just one of those things.”

Central Notes: Davis, Soler, Holland, Reds

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Last night’s deal between the Cubs and Royals was something like a win-win, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider only). Acquiring Wade Davis helps the Cubs dodge the very costly free agent closer market while adding a reliever who’s been dominant the past three seasons. The Cubs had no playing time for Jorge Soler, and it’s possible the Royals would have gotten more for Davis had it not been for Davis’ recent injury issues. Still, Law writes, Soler is a good get for the Royals, who will receive a regular who’s controllable for the next four seasons. Soler’s bat speed and exit velocity suggest he has plenty of offensive upside as well. Here are more quick notes from the Central divisions.

  • The Pirates and White Sox are still vying for free agent starter Derek Holland’s services, MLB.com’s TR Sullivan tweets. Holland, formerly a successful starter with the Rangers, is looking for a new team with which to rebuild his value after coming back in 2016 from two injury-riddled seasons. The Rangers declined his option last month.
  • The Reds have spent the Winter Meetings trying to find potential trade partners for veteran middle infielders Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Both can hit the open market after the 2017 season, and the rebuilding Reds want to clear space for young infielders Dilson Herrera and Jose Peraza. The problem, from the Reds’ perspective, is that most teams already seem to have middle infielders they like in place, particularly at shortstop. The Reds are open to the possibility of keeping all four players. “This particular year, people seem to be set,” says GM Dick Williams. “It’s always good to have some depth there. We’ve got some good players. I think it’ll work itself out. If you end up going into spring with that group in the middle, I’ve always said those are some pretty good players to mix and match.” That might mean the Reds could option Herrera or Peraza, and they also seem likely to use Phillips and Cozart in reduced roles.

Dayton Moore, Jed Hoyer Discuss Davis-Soler Swap

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General managers Dayton Moore of the Royals and Jed Hoyer of the Cubs discussed today’s trade that sends closer Wade Davis to Chicago in exchange for young outfielder Jorge Soler. (Find all the details and analysis of that swap right here.)

For the Royals, it was obviously a difficult decision to part with a player who had been a key cog of the organization’s 2015 World Series-winning roster. But it doesn’t mean that the club is packing it in this year, per Moore, who acknowledged the importance of getting a major league asset in a deal involving Davis.

“We think it’s important to try to accomplish both [winning and looking to the future],” said Moore. “We want to win consistently,” he continued, “and Jorge certainly gives us a better opportunity to do that.”

In Soler, it seems, the Royals believe they have a player who’s ready to make good on his evident physical talent. Moore emphasized the importance of adding a controllable, already-developed power bat to this franchise. And he suggested that he sees Soler as capable of playing a roughly average right field.

The new collective bargaining agreement changes some of the math when it comes to dealing pending free agents, because it reduces and complicates the potential draft compensation that can be recouped. But that apparently wasn’t much of a factor here. The new rules “didn’t change our thinking,” said Moore, who indicated that the deal would likely have gone through regardless.

On the Cubs’ side, the reasoning was all the more clear. Like Kansas City a year ago, the challenge is to repeat an immensely successful campaign that ended with a championship. With closer Aroldis Chapman leaving, even with former closer Hector Rondon around, that meant adding another late-inning power arm.

In this case, the addition of Davis shouldn’t be read to reflect upon the team’s other pen arms, per Hoyer. He noted that the Royals’ own experience shows how the added stress of a lengthy postseason run can run down a staff in the season that follows. The hope is that by adding an “extra weapon,” says Hoyer, it’ll “take a little bit of burden off all of [the rest of the pitchers].”

Notably, Davis missed time with a flexor tendon issue that raised red flags. Particularly with just one year left on his contract, the time to get value for the Cubs is right now. Hoyer noted that the team wouldn’t have felt comfortable parting with Soler — and his years of cheap control — were it not for the fact that the Cubs “felt really good” about Davis’s arm health. Chicago’s trainer conducted an in-person physical today. In conjunction with all the other medical information that changed hands, the Cubs obviously feel confident that Davis is ready for a full 2017 season.

Royals, Cubs Swap Wade Davis For Jorge Soler

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The Royals have traded closer Wade Davis to the Cubs in exchange for young outfielder Jorge Soler, tweets Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. Reports of these talks first surfaced last night, with Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, ESPN’s Jayson Stark, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and FOX’s Ken Rosenthal all shedding light on the situation.

[Related: Updated Kansas City Royals Depth Chart and Chicago Cubs Depth Chart]

Wade Davis

Davis, 31, originally came to the Royals from the Rays in the 2012 James Shields/Wil Myers/Jake Odorizzi blockbuster. After struggling as a starter with both Tampa Bay and Kansas City, Davis moved to the bullpen and almost instantly broke out as one baseball’s most dominant relief weapons. Over the past three seasons, Davis has pitched to a comically low 1.18 ERA in 182 2/3 innings while averaging 11.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. He’s also been utterly dominant in 25 postseason innings, yielding just one earned run and posting a 38-to-5 K/BB ratio.

Davis isn’t without his red flags, though. He hit the disabled list twice this past season due to forearm and flexor strains and saw his average fastball dip from 95.7 mph to 94.9 mph. He also posted his lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate since moving to the bullpen. But, Davis did come back strong from his final DL stint, pitching 9 2/3 innings in September and allowing three runs while posting a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio. Furthermore, ESPNs Jerry Crasnick tweeted this morning that the Cubs were being very thorough with Davis’ medical records in order to ascertain that they were willing to take him on. Davis is earning $10MM next year and will become a free agent next winter, so this is a one-year pickup for the Cubs, barring some form of extension.

The Cubs at one point seemed like a strong match for one of the market’s top free agent closers, but GM Jed Hoyer downplayed that notion early in the offseason, and there’s been little to no evidence that the Cubs pursued any of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon before making today’s trade. The swap reunites Davis with former Rays manager Joe Maddon and likely pushes Hector Rondon from the ninth inning back down to a setup role.

In Soler, Chicago is trading away a player with four years of team control remaining. While normally selling that type of control for a one-year asset would be difficult, the Cubs possess significant outfield depth and would’ve struggled to find Soler any form of regular role, as their roster already includes Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay and Matt Szczur.

Jorge Soler

In Kansas City, however, Soler may very well slot into an everyday role in right field. The Royals currently have a Jarrod Dyson/Paulo Orlando platoon in right field, but Dyson is a free agent next winter and is has reportedly been discussed with other clubs seeking outfield help. Dyson and Davis are just two of many players that helped to comprise a Kansas City core that is now slated to hit free agency together next winter. In addition to that pair, the Royals have Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar all slated to hit the open market next year, so the acquisition of Soler could be one of many moves made with an eye toward acquiring more controllable talent.

The 2017 campaign will mark the fourth season in which Soler has seen time in the Majors, but he’s still just 24 years of age. An extremely high-profile international prospect, Soler signed a nine-year, $30MM contract with the Cubs out of Cuba prior to the 2012 season when he was just 20 years old. Soler’s powerful right-handed swing, offensive upside and plus arm made him a mainstay on Top 100 prospect lists throughout the industry. He looked every bit like the future star he was billed to be when the Cubs promoted him late in the 2014 season, as he went on to hit .292/.330/.573 with five homers in 97 plate appearances across 24 games.

Soler, though, has batted a more pedestrian .253/.328/.413 in 187 games/668 plate appearances since that brilliant debut, and he’s battled injuries as well. Soler has landed on the disabled list three times in the past two years due to a hamstring strain, an oblique strain and an ankle sprain. While none of those injuries is necessarily concerning in isolation, durability has long been a concern for Soler. He’d never played more than 62 games in a minor league season before his 2014 promotion to the Majors, and his hamstring issues date back to his minor league days.

Nonetheless, Soler gives the Royals some much-needed controllable talent and is still young enough to become a fixture in the middle of their lineup for the foreseeable future if he’s able to conquer his injury woes and tap into his potential.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Close To Trading Jorge Soler To Royals For Wade Davis

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8:41am: If completed, the trade will be Soler for Davis straight up, tweets Rosenthal.

DEC. 7, 12:58am: The teams are reviewing physicals and an official announcement could come in the morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.

DEC. 6, 9:32pm: The Cubs are close to acquiring Davis from the Royals for Soler, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The deal is not expected to be done tonight, however, Passan tweets. Soler is still just 24 and retains tremendous power potential, although he has struggled to harness that potential at the big-league level and isn’t likely to get much playing time on a Cubs team loaded with outfielders. Soler hit .238/.333/.436 with 12 home runs in 264 plate appearances with the Cubs last season. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rated him among the top 50 prospects in the game prior to the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons.

8:07pm: The source of the snag is that the Nationals have made a late bid to acquire Davis, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes.

7:44pm: There could be a “snag,” and the deal is not a sure thing, Passan tweets.

7:20pm: The Cubs are close to a trade that would land Royals closer Wade Davis, Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets. Passan wrote earlier today that the Royals might soon deal Davis.

Davis, like several other key Royals, is set to become a free agent at the end of the season, and it appears the Royals are getting a jump on potentially big changes to their team by swinging a deal now. They reportedly like Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler, although it’s not clear that he’s involved in a deal at this time. Kelvin Herrera seems likely to take over Royals closing duties next season.

The Cubs, who are losing Aroldis Chapman to free agency, have had interest in top relievers throughout the offseason, and have already been specifically linked to Davis. Davis offers a potentially lower-cost and short-term alternative to big-name free agents to Chapman and Kenley Jansen, while still being plenty dominant himself — he’s had three straight terrific seasons in Kansas City, including a 1.87 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 43 1/3 innings last season.

NL West Notes: Turner, Rockies, Bridich, Bumgarner, Giants

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Justin Turner is “still the favorite” to return as the Dodgers third baseman, but the team is also exploring some other options, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times writes (Twitter links).  The Dodgers have checked in on White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier, and McCullough figures L.A. would also explore such Sox options as Jose Quintana or David Robertson if Chicago went into rebuild mode.  Given that the Sox dealt Chris Sale earlier today, it stands to reason that more moves could be on the way for the Pale Hose, and the Dodgers stand out as a logical trade partner.  Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich confirmed reports that his team had spoken to the White Sox about first baseman Jose Abreu, speaking with MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and other reporters on Tuesday.  “We have been paying attention to any and all avenues of trying to upgrade ourselves at first base, and just like we’re in touch with a lot of teams, we have been in touch with the White Sox about, not just Abreu, but also a variety of their players, because they have expressed an interest in seeing what they can get,” Bridich said.  This is just my speculation, but with the Rockies looking for both back-end relief help and starting pitching, Robertson and Quintana would stand out as obvious players of interest on the Sox roster.  Bridich also said he had talked with the Royals “about a number of different things a number of times,” with Harding reporting that Wade Davis was one player under discussion.
  • Rockies owner Dick Monfort spoke of a payroll increase earlier this offseason, and Bridich confirmed that the team is still prepared to spend in the right circumstance.  Given that Colorado has been linked to such pricey names as Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Trumbo, it would indeed seem like the Rox have some money to spend.
  • The Giants aren’t in ongoing negotiations with Madison Bumgarner about a contract extension, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets.  In October, Giants CEO Larry Baer cited a desire to keep Bumgarner in the fold well past 2019 (the star lefty’s last year of control under his current contract), though the lack of talks shouldn’t necessarily indicate a change in the team’s thinking, as most teams often wait until offseason business is concluded before focusing on extensions.
  • In another tweet from Schulman, he reports that the Giants are exploring possible trades for left field help, with free agency a less likely avenue.  San Francisco’s “plan A” for left field, however, is a platoon of youngsters Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker.

Aroldis Chapman Reportedly Has $92MM Offer

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One of the top three relievers, Mark Melancon, is off the board after agreeing to a record-setting $62MM deal with the Giants yesterday. But both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, the top two relievers of the winter, remain unsigned. Both are likely to make Melancon’s time as the relief contract record holder brief, and we’ll track today’s updates on their market here…

  • The Yankees haven’t gone as high as $92MM in their offers to Chapman, and the Marlins aren’t believed to be willing to spend quite that much, Heyman reports (Twitter links).
  • Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has indeed given his front office the green light to spend on signing Chapman or Jansen, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports, though this “preliminary approval” of funds may still not be enough to outbid other big spenders on either ace closer.

Earlier Updates

  • The Yankees are “determined” to land Chapman, Heyman tweets. It’s not clear, however, that they’re the team that offered Chapman $92MM.
  • One team believes Chapman has a $92MM offer in hand, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.
  • The Yankees have made offers to both Chapman and Jansen, reports MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (on Twitter).
  • Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times tweets that the Dodgers are remaining “competitive” in the markets for Jansen and Chapman, and they’ve also chatted with the Royals about closer Wade Davis.
  • Chapman has received multiple offers that have passed the $80MM threshold, Heyman tweets. The Yankees still see him as their priority, but the Dodgers and Marlins are in the mix as well. He also suggests that the Nationals could join the fray for Chapman, pointing out that GM Mike Rizzo and manager Dusty Baker (who managed Chapman in Cincinnati) both love Chapman.
  • There’s an expectation that Jansen will sign before Chapman, reports ESPN’s Jim Bowden.
  • The Yankees are more focused on Chapman than Jansen and are willing to offer a five-year deal in the range of $80MM, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Chapman said yesterday that he’s hoping to receive a six-year deal, but the Yankees won’t go to that level to sign him, according to Heyman. For the Yankees, Jansen is more of a backup plan to Chapman than a prime target.
  • The Marlins are firmly in the mix for both top closers, at owner Jeffrey Loria’s behest, but their preference between the two differs from the Yankees, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Miami has preferred Jansen to Chapman from the start of free agency, despite the fact that he comes with the burden of draft pick compensation after rejecting a qualifying offer. Sherman notes that if the Marlins are able to land Jansen before Chapman signs, that could push the Dodgers to make a strong run at Chapman, potentially throwing a wrench into the Yankees’ winter plans. The Dodgers are trying to retain Jansen, according to Sherman, but they’d seemingly shift course to Chapman if Jansen came off the board.
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