Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

By Jeff Todd | February 26, 2019 at 11:06pm CDT

With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

AL Notes: Vlad Jr., Bogaerts, Twins, Castellanos

By Jeff Todd | February 16, 2019 at 12:27am CDT

It has long seemed obvious that the Blue Jays would prefer to hold top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at Triple-A to open the 2019 season. After all, the team decided not to call him up late last season and can push back his potential free agency by one season if they keep him down for at least a brief stretch to begin the new campaign. GM Ross Atkins declined yesterday to provide any kind of hint as to the anticipated timing, as Keegan Matheson of the Score tweets, though he did so in a manner that seemingly suggests the club is indeed preparing to hold off on a call-up. “There’s no firm timeline on when [Guerrero] arrives or when he is playing in Toronto for the first time,” said Atkins, “but we want to make sure he’s the best possible third baseman and the best possible hitter he can be.”

Let’s take a look at some other notes from the American League …

The Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts reportedly failed to gain traction in extension talks earlier this winter. Perhaps it’s still possible, though, that the pending free agent could line up with the organization on a new deal. As John Tomase of WEEI.com writes, Bogaerts acknowledged that the slow-developing free agent market provides cause for him to consider extension scenarios — “you obviously have to think about that,” he said — though he also did not exactly hint that he’s particularly inclined to forego the risks and upside of the open market. The 26-year-old called this winter’s market developments “weird.” As for the possibility of a future in Boston, he ultimately would say only that he likes playing with the team and that “we’ll see what happens.”
While the Twins have looked into extensions with multiple young players, and recently locked up both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, all is quiet on that front at this point, per LaVelle E. Neal III off the Star Tribune (via Twitter). Players such as outfielder Eddie Rosario and righty Jose Berrios would seem to represent highly appealing targets, though both also have added leverage due to their strong 2018 seasons.
The Tigers, meanwhile, do not appear to have anything in the works with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who seems to be more of a mid-season trade candidate than extension candidate. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes that skipper Ron Gardenhire would prefer Castellanos stick around. He just might get his wish, at least for the first half of the season, as it still seems there’s insufficient market interest in the defensively challenged slugger to pique the Detroit organization’s interest.

Quick Hits: Prospects, Grandal, Twins, Davis, A’s

By Mark Polishuk and Jeff Todd | January 26, 2019 at 1:18pm CDT

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sits atop Baseball America’s annual preseason edition of its Top 100 Prospect rankings. Guerrero had already moved into the #1 position in BA’s midseason rankings last summer after Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna (the top two players in last spring’s top 100) gained enough big league playing time to lose their prospect status. Guerrero is expected to make his long-awaited debut in the Blue Jays’ lineup at some point early in the 2019 season. Fernando Tatis Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Wander Franco, and Forrest Whitley round out the top five.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

Before signing a one-year deal with the Brewers worth $18.25MM in guaranteed money, Yasmani Grandal received multi-year offers from the Angels, Twins, and White Sox, The Athletic’s Robert Murray reports (subscription required). These offers were in addition to the four-year deal reportedly floated by the Mets for Grandal, which he turned down. As Grandal explained, taking the longer-term offers would’ve meant setting what he felt was a bad precedent for free agent catching contracts. “One of my responsibilities as a player is also to respect the guys going through this process before me like Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Yadier Molina…These are guys who have established a market and pay levels for a particular tier of catchers like myself,” Grandal said. “I felt l would be doing a disservice taking some of the deals that were offered even though they were slightly more long term. I wanted to keep the line moving and set a bar for the younger guys coming up. In hopes of them following our footsteps….hopefully, they know what they are worth and would go ahead and get paid what they’re worth.” Grandal can technically achieve a second year on his Brewers deal, a mutual option for 2020 worth $16MM, though it seems unlikely that both he and the team would agree to enact their respective sides of that option.
The Twins’ offer to Grandal was worth around $13MM per season, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweets, though talks between the two parties “never gained traction.” To use Grandal’s cited examples, $13MM is less in average annual value than McCann, Martin, and Molina each received in long-term deals from the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Cardinals, respectively. (In fact, Molina averaged more than $13MM per year in each of his last two extensions with St. Louis.) While time will tell if Grandal made the right move in turning down more long-term security, he clearly feels comfortable in betting on himself for a big 2019 season, while still picking up a nice one-year payday on a contending team. The Twins’ pursuit of Grandal is interesting in light of recent comments from Derek Falvey and Thad Levine about the team’s rather conservative approach to spending this offseason, though obviously Minnesota (like any club) would be interested in larger multi-year deals if it felt it was getting something of a below-market price.
Athletics GM David Forst suggests that the door is still open to a long-term deal with slugger Khris Davis after the sides lined up on a 2019 contract for his final season of arbitration eligibility. As Forst told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters, the two sides have “continued that conversation” and could keep negotiating after Opening Day, if Davis is willing. It had seemed possible that the need to hammer out an arb figure would drive talks, but with that already settled (at a hefty $16.5MM), any future-oriented agreement will simply have to reflect a difficult valuation case. Davis is one of the game’s power bats, of course, but he’ll also be 32 on Opening Day 2020 and he doesn’t add value with the glove.

The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018

By Jason Martinez | September 18, 2018 at 6:15pm CDT

Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!

This is how it works:

Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.

A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.

But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.

You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors). Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.

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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.

Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.

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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.

The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.

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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto’s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.

Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.

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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.

The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.

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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.

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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.

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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.

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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.

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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.

After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,” he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.

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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.

While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.

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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart

The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.

Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).

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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.

Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.

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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.

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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A. It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.

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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.

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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.

The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.

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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.

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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.

In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.

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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).

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Power Ranking Leaders By Level

Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays

Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies

High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox

Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets

Rookie
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres

Poll: The Handling Of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez

By Kyle Downing | September 9, 2018 at 10:30pm CDT

Two of the most talented players in Triple-A will remain there throughout the month of September. Third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez will not receive a cup of coffee in the majors this month, per recent announcements from the Blue Jays and White Sox, respectively.

To those well-versed in MLB service time rules and practices, this news induces a reaction closer to a yawn than a surprise; teams have been using the service clock to manipulate team control for quite some time, and there was no reason to believe that would change in regards to Guerrero Jr. or Jimenez. Recent examples of players whose service time has been suppressed by their respective teams in order to yield them an additional year of team control include Kris Bryant, George Springer and Ronald Acuna Jr., and that list is far from complete. Others still, including the likes of Francisco Lindor, have been held in the minors long enough to reduce their earning power.

That doesn’t mean agents are quieting down about the issue, though. Both players’ representatives have been vocal in regards to their clients’ dearth of a promotion, as well they ought to be considering they’ll miss out on a significant amount of money. Jimenez’ agent in particular blasted with White Sox for service time manipulation. “Especially with elite players like Eloy and (Blue Jays top prospect) Vlad (Guerrero) Jr., that’s the nature of the business,” said Dan Kinzer. “It’s not about the money. It’s the extra year of control.” Similarly, the MLBPA has spoken out against Chicago and Toronto on the subject.

Perhaps J.J. Cooper of Baseball America put it best in his recent piece on the subject: it’s impossible to objectively argue that these players don’t deserve a call up based on performance. Guerrero Jr. has hit .336/.414/.564 with a microscopic 7.8% strikeout rate since his promotion to Triple-A this season, while Jimenez owns an even more excellent .355/.399/.597 line to go along with a 13.2% strikeout rate. Put simply, opposing pitchers aren’t fooling these prospects, and there’s no real reason development-wise that they ought not be exposed to major-league pitching. That’s particularly true in light of the fact that the White Sox promoted low-ceiling prospect Ryan Cordell, while the Blue Jays selected Triple-A veteran Rowdy Tellez. Whatever good there is to say of these young players, any attempt to argue that they’ve done more to earn a promotion than Guerrero Jr. or Jimenez would require a staggering amount of cognitive dissonance.

These teams are clearly planning to restrain their top prospects within the confines of Triple-A until the third week of April 2019, regardless of how well they hit. That’s the point at which they’ll be guaranteed an additional year of team control that allows them to keep those future superstars around through the 2026 season rather than hit free agency after 2025. It’s a distinction that could potentially cost them eight figures in earning power apiece depending on how they develop in the majors.

The question I want to pose is, how do you feel about the overt suppression of service time to manipulate a player’s team control? (Poll link for app users)

Blue Jays Notes: Vlad Jr., Shapiro, Payroll

By Jeff Todd | September 7, 2018 at 8:03pm CDT

With the Blue Jays wrapping up a disappointing campaign, there have been a few tense stories involving the organization in recent days. The end of Josh Donaldson’s tenure (link), the potential end of John Gibbons’s tenure (link), and the club’s decision not to promote super-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have all grabbed headlines. Even president/CEO Mark Shapiro has been in the rumor mill to an extent. All things considered, it made for an interesting media session for Shapiro today.

Here are some highlights from that Q&A, as covered by Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca:

Regarding Guerrero, as Davidi recently reported, the MLB Player’s Association shared some less-than-friendly thoughts on the matter. “The decision to not to [sic] bring him up is a business decision, not a baseball decision,” a spokesman told Davidi. “It’s bad for the Blue Jays, it’s bad for fans, it’s bad for players and it’s bad for the industry.” Shapiro, of course, had suggested otherwise in attempting to justify the club’s decision to send Guerrero to the Arizona Fall League. Now, Shapiro says in reference to a possible grievance action, he “welcome[s] that scrutiny.”
Shapiro pushed back on questions about his future by expressing an ongoing desire to continue in his position. That’s not to say that there are any guarantees as to how things will shake out over the coming offseason, but the veteran exec says he is “as, if not more, excited to be here” than at the outset of his tenure. “This is where I want to be, this is where I am, this is what I’m focused on, and really don’t need to think of anything else,” said Shapiro, who rejected some reporting suggesting problems between him and ownership.
Looking ahead more broadly, Shapiro seemingly acknowledged the factors that will likely lead to a payroll reduction without specifically agreeing that a slash was in mind. He said the club is “not going to be playing on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado” but will still “be active in free agency, where we have gaps and holes.” Though Shapiro says the goal is “to field a competitive team,” he also made clear that younger players will be given a chance to learn on the job. That’s “a double-edged sword,” he said, explaining: “playing young players leads to volatility. Volatility can be a great thing because there’s huge upside for those players, but it can also be a disappointing thing because there will be some young players that break your heart. The only way to find out about who a player is at the major-league level is to commit to that opportunity and to commit to those players. We’re embarking on that process now.”
As with the Guerrero situation, whether or not one believes the rationale, the effect is clear. In both cases, the Jays will evidently be taking steps that indicate a greater focus on the future. With respect to Guerrero, that means preserving as much future control as possible. With respect to payroll, both in terms of allocating MLB opportunities and setting salary levels, the club is obviously willing to accept greater near-term uncertainty at the major-league level. While that may be disappointing to some fans, it’s also arguably a defensible approach from the perspective of optimizing resources over the long haul, particularly given the ascendance of the two traditional divisional powers in the AL East. While the Blue Jays have just under $55MM committed to 2019 payroll (before arb raises), well shy of the team’s $160MM Opening Day salaries in each of the past two seasons, it’s also not clear that the roster is set up for a true drive for contention even with significant investments. That outlook could change quite a bit based upon how things develop with the team’s prospects and younger MLB assets, but whether and how will depend upon the 2019 campaign.

AL News & Rumors: Rangers, Kela, Beltre, Red Sox, Jays, Vlad Jr., Twins

By Connor Byrne | July 28, 2018 at 11:07pm CDT

There were five teams on hand Saturday to scout Rangers closer Keone Kela, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports. The Diamondbacks and Pirates – both of whom have had previously reported interested in Kela – as well as the Red Sox, Indians and Giants were in attendance, according to Wilson. Kela didn’t pitch, though the 25-year-old has bolstered his trade value this season with a 3.28 ERA/2.85 FIP, 10.85 K/9 against 3.03 BB/9 and 23 saves in 24 chances over 35 2/3 innings. Adding to Kela’s appeal, he’s making a relative pittance this season ($1.2MM) and still has three more arbitration-eligible years remaining. The Dodgers are interested in Kela, too, per the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant, who adds that LA has also been scouting fellow Texas relievers Jose Leclerc, Alex Claudio and Jake Diekman,

More on the Rangers, who have yet another potential trade chip in pending free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre. While the Braves have been connected to Beltre this week, one source “downplayed” their interest in the future Hall of Famer to Wilson. Grant passes along different information, writing that the Braves’ interest in Beltre is “serious.” Whether a deal comes together will largely be up to the 39-year-old Beltre, who, as a 10-and-5 player, has full no-trade rights. Beltre spoke about his future Saturday, telling Grant and others in regards to the Rangers: “We have talked. I’ve always been at peace with being here. Obviously, we have talked before [about a trade], and if it makes sense for both parties, I would consider it. But up until now, there’s nothing concrete that we can sit and talk about.”
Red Sox manager Alex Cora told Ian Browne of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday that third baseman Rafael Devers is likely headed to the disabled list with a hamstring injury. It would be the second DL placement this month for Devers, who went on the shelf July 12 on account of left shoulder inflammation, thus adding to a disappointing season for the well-regarded 21-year-old. After an impressive debut in 2017, Devers has batted a below-average .245/.295/.425 in 396 plate appearances this season, though he has shown off respectable power (15 home runs, .180 ISO).
Blue Jays uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is now one step from the majors, having been promoted from Double-A to Triple-A on Saturday. The 19-year-old third baseman tore through Double-A pitching in 266 PAs this season, hitting .402/.449/.671 with 14 home runs and nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (27) prior to his promotion. Both Baseball America and MLB.com regard Guerrero as the game’s best prospect.
The Twins brought third baseman Miguel Sano back to the majors on Saturday. Sano earned a surprise demotion to the minors in mid-June after opening the season with a .191/.247/.353 line with seven home runs and 30 strikeouts against a mere two walks in 73 PAs. The 25-year-old’s only a season removed from an All-Star campaign in which he slashed .264/.352/.507 with 28 homers over 483 PAs.

East Notes: Mets, Yanks, deGrom, Thor, Vlad Jr., D. Murphy, Franco

By Connor Byrne | June 10, 2018 at 3:58pm CDT

With the Mets looking more like bottom feeders than contenders, there has been speculation that they could listen to proposals for two of their best players, co-aces Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The 29-year-old deGrom is under control through 2020, while Syndergaard, 25, is wrapped up through 2021, meaning each would bring back a significant haul in a trade. Of the teams that could go after either, the Yankees perhaps stand out as the most logical suitors, and Buster Olney of ESPN opines that the Mets would have to strongly consider offers from their crosstown rivals. While it would hurt the Mets and their fans in the near term to see one of those starters thriving with the Yankees, the return they’d get back would ease the pain, Olney contends. Ultimately, however, Olney doesn’t expect a deal between the teams to come to fruition, and he goes on to name several other starters the Yankees could pursue prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline if they attempt to upgrade their rotation.

Blue Jays Notes: Vlad Jr., Outfield Corners, Gaviglio

By Steve Adams | June 7, 2018 at 8:42pm CDT

Blue Jays fans have been anxiously anticipating the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but they’ll have to wait a bit longer, as the 19-year-old phenom was placed on the minor league disabled list today after incurring a leg injury (link via Chris Bumbaca of MiLB.com). Guerrero went from first to second on a single, slid into the bag and immediately signaled for a trainer’s assistance before exiting the contest, though Fisher Cats manager John Schneider called the placement “cautious.” The team didn’t disclose further details on Guerrero’s injury, though all indications from the organization to this point seem to be that it’s minor.

Here’s more out of Toronto…

While the Jays have played Teoscar Hernandez more in right field than it left, it seems that he’ll move to left field on a largely permanent basis moving forward. As MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes, the team feels that Hernandez has the arm for right field but that his range and instincts are better suited for the other corner slot. Randal Grichuk will likely get another shot to take the reins in right field, where he comes with a history of strong defensive ratings (career +9.1 UZR/150). Grichuk has gotten off to a disastrous start to his Blue Jays career, hitting .115/.202/.269 in 89 plate appearances, though Statcast gives some reason to be optimistic; Grichuk’s 99.1 mph average exit velocity on balls in the air and knack for barreling the ball have translated to a .318 xwOBA that dwarfs his current .209 wOBA.
Right-hander Sam Gaviglio has been a rare bright spot in an otherwise dreadful season for the Jays, writes Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. Acquired in a forgettable spring trade in which the Jays sent only cash considerations to the Royals, Gaviglio has stepped up as one of the club’s most consistent starters and has earned a longer look in the rotation. Through 28 2/3 innings thus far, he’s pitched to a 2.51 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9 and a 54.4 percent ground-ball rate. While it’s obviously a small sample and Gaviglio shouldn’t be expected to continue sporting a sub-3.00 ERA, fielding-independent metrics in that small sample are encouraging. Zwelling takes a look at the manner in which Gaviglio has found his early success. Of course, he also notes that the very fact that Gaviglio is poised to get any type of notable look in the rotation is a testament to the team’s struggles this season and the fact that things have hardly gone as planned. As the Jays struggle, trade chatter surrounding veterans on the club will only increase. J.A. Happ’s name has already begun to pop up on the rumor mill (FanRag’s Jon Heyman took a look at that earlier today), and if the Jays do deal from their rotation it could open the door for Gaviglio to get an even lengthier audition.

AL East Notes: Hanley, Kelly, Vlad Jr., Happ

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2018 at 11:57am CDT

As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported last night, Hanley Ramirez is going through release waivers at the moment, which makes it likely that he’ll clear and become a free agent tomorrow afternoon. Red Sox skipper Alex Cora appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week to discuss the team’s decision to cut ties with Ramirez in one of the highest-profile DFAs in recent memory (Twitter link, with audio). Per Cora, the decision came down to one of roster flexibility and a desire to get Mitch Moreland’s left-handed bat and superior glove into the lineup with more regularity.

“We’ve been talking about when Pedroia comes back since February,” said the Red Sox’ skipper. “We had different scenarios, different options, and at the end, I talked about being flexible as far as versatility — being able to maneuver the last part of the game with pinch-hitters, pinch-runners, defensive replacements and being able to match up with the opposition. It’s nothing against the player, because Hanley is a good player. He was going through a slump. That’s part of it. Everybody goes through it. … I did feel as an organization, our roster was going to be a little bit tight with him not playing every day.”

More from Boston and from the division…

Bradford spoke with setup man Joe Kelly about the manner in which the right-hander has now fully embraced his role as a reliever. Kelly wasn’t exactly keen on the idea of moving to the bullpen earlier in his career and had preferred to remain in the rotation, but he’s thriving in and enjoying his role as a late-inning weapon for the Red Sox. Kelly, a free agent at season’s end, said he wouldn’t reject the idea if a club approached him about returning to the rotation this offseason, but it doesn’t sound as if that’ll be a priority for him, either. “I like the job I’m in right now,” he said. “I kind of like the thrill, the adrenaline rush.” Kelly and Bradford also discuss the different mindsets that come with pitching in different roles, his move from the outfield to the mound during his amateur days, and his stress-free approach to his impending free agency in a candid interview that’s well worth a full read.
Buster Olney and Keith Law of ESPN discussed the timeline for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s promotion in the latest Baseball Tonight podcast (audio link, with Guerrero talk beginning around the 7:30 mark). The pair agrees that Guerrero Jr. should be in Triple-A already and should be called up this summer, despite the fact that some execs with other teams have opined to Olney that the Blue Jays would be ill-advised to lose the year of service time they could gain by delaying his promotion until early 2019. Olney and Law discuss Guerrero Jr.’s defensive and offensive development as well as the marketing opportunities the Jays would have in both 2018 and 2019 by promoting him to the big leagues.
For all the speculation surrounding the Yankees and Cole Hamels, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that J.A. Happ should be every bit as much on New York’s radar this summer — if not more. Happ, unlike Hamels, doesn’t have a no-trade clause that includes the Yankees, and he’s also earning a more reasonable $12MM this season that aligns with the team’s luxury tax goals. Moreover, though, Sherman notes that Happ simply isn’t separated by Hamels in terms of talent as much as the pair’s reputation would suggest. The 36-year-old reinvented himself following a 2015 trade to the Pirates, and he’s posted better numbers in recent years (and again in 2018) than Hamels. The general thinking extends well beyond the Yankees, of course. If the Blue Jays decide to make Happ available to other teams this July, the southpaw would be one of their most attractive rental chips and would fit on virtually any contender looking to bolster its rotation.

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