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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Blue Jays

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Arbitrators ruled in favor of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in his hearing versus the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). The slugging first baseman will be paid at the $19.9MM rate sought by his camp at PRIME. The team had submitted an $18.05MM filing figure.

Guerrero’s arbitration case was the most significant of any this offseason. Of the players who went to a hearing, he’s in line for easily the highest salary. The $1.85MM gap between his filing figure and the team’s proposed rate was the second-largest of the offseason; there’s a $1.9MM spread between the Rangers’ and Adolis García’s submissions.

This is the third of four trips through the process for the three-time All-Star. Guerrero racked up huge earnings early in the process. That’s partially because he qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player during the 2021-22 offseason. It’s also a reflection of the monster numbers he posted early in his career, particularly during the ’21 campaign. Guerrero’s MVP runner-up season led to a hefty $7.9MM agreement for 2022. He and the Jays settled on a $14.5MM deal last winter but couldn’t find a mutually agreeable price point this time around.

That nevertheless works out well for Guerrero, who secures a $5.4MM raise relative to last season. While he’s coming off a good year, his production wasn’t what he or the team envisioned from one of the sport’s most talented offensive players. Guerrero hit 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .264/.345/.444 batting line over 682 plate appearances.

Toronto’s projected payroll sits in the $240MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’ll go through the arbitration process with Guerrero once again next offseason. Winning his case this year establishes the platform for next winter’s discussions higher — a player’s previous salaries is a key factor in setting arbitration prices — and he’ll hit free agency in advance of his age-27 season.

Guerrero was the only Toronto player going to a hearing this winter. Players around the league have been victorious in six consecutive hearings after teams won the first two. There are 10 cases still pending.

Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Guerrero, Chapman, Nola

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Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has come up in some trade rumors this offseason but it doesn’t appear there’s much momentum towards a deal there. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet addressed the possibility in columns today, both downplaying the likelihood of the Jays choosing this path.

Nicholson-Smith says he spoke with executives with teams other than the Jays, who gave him the impression the Jays are planning to hold. Rosenthal says the Jays are indeed getting calls from other clubs about Bichette and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but that doesn’t mean they are motivated to move either.

This is all fairly understandable under the conditions of this winter’s market. It’s generally agreed that the crop of free agent hitters is on the weak side, which would naturally lead clubs to find upgrades on the trading block. But the Jays are also looking to upgrade their own position player group, having to replace free agents Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. Subtracting Bichette and/or Guerrero would only make that task harder and it’s hard to imagine a trade that would make sense for both sides.

Each of Bichette and Guerrero are two years away from free agency, so any club looking to acquire them would naturally be in win-now mode. But the Jays are in a competitive window as well, meaning MLB-ready talent would have to be coming back in exchange, and it would be difficult to send something to the Jays that makes the club better than Bichette does. The shortstop has produced 13.5 wins above replacement over the past three years, per FanGraphs, which puts him in the top 25 of all position players in the league. Guerrero’s past two seasons weren’t as strong as his 2021 campaign but he was still good for roughly 30 homers with a low strikeout rate. With the Jays actively pursuing Shohei Ohtani, parting ways with a star player like Bichette or Guerrero wouldn’t help their pitch.

In terms of Toronto’s pursuits, it’s been reported that the Jays are interested in a Chapman reunion and that still appears to be the case. Both Nicholson-Smith and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com indicate that the dialogue is still open between the Jays and Chapman but it doesn’t appear there’s anything close to getting done. Chapman reportedly turned down an extension offer of four or five years while still with the club.

Another option the Jays considered was right-hander Aaron Nola, with Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club “showed early interest” in the righty before he re-signed with the Phillies. Though the lineup seems to the priority for the Jays, it seems there’s at least some openness to a rotation addition, with the Jays having also been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The rotation already has Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in four spots, with Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, Mitch White and prospect Ricky Tiedemann options for the back end. Adding Nola or Yamamoto in there would likely lead to someone becoming available in trade, with Jays reportedly open to moving Manoah.

Overall, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Jays thus far, with the team having only made perfunctory transactions in the past few weeks. It’s entirely possible that all their upcoming moves will hinge on their pursuit of Ohtani, as the club is seen as one of a handful of legitimate contenders for the two-way superstar. Though they have some openness to reuniting with Chapman, pursuing Yamamoto or perhaps going after Cody Bellinger, all of those options may be on the backburner until the Ohtani situation has some clarity. Since Ohtani is widely expected to require a record-breaking deal of $500MM or more, it stands to reason that the club would want to figure out their chances there before committing to other options that will also require significant funds.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Unusual, Replacement-Level Season

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The Blue Jays are 1.5 games behind the Rangers for the last AL wild card berth, so it remains quite possible that Toronto could still end up as part of the postseason bracket.  However, simply squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t at all what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a club record) in payroll and surpassing the luxury tax threshold for the first time, as the team fully expected to be contending for a World Series title.

Alek Manoah’s extreme struggles and a lack of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, yet the biggest culprit has been a very up-and-down offense.  Though the Blue Jays are actually among the league’s best in getting hits and getting on base, they rank middle of the pack in runs due to an inability to consistently drive in runners in scoring position.  Beyond this specific flaw, the Jays have also gotten disappointing years at the plate from several regulars, and while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has still been above average, his oddity of a season has been pretty symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 campaign as a whole.

“Above average” production and a 112 wRC+ is a perfectly respectable year for most players, yet for Guerrero, it stands out as a red flag.  When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) but unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has only 0.4 fWAR — among all qualified players in baseball, only 16 players have a lower fWAR than Guerrero’s modest total.

It is an eye-opening statistic, since for all of the money the Blue Jays have invested in building their roster, the team’s plans have been built around the assumption of excellent production from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette.  While Bichette has mostly lived up to that billing and has been Toronto’s best player this season, Guerrero suddenly becoming barely a replacement-level player has been a big setback for the Jays.

And yet, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate.  Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA.  In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck.  No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.

The sea of red on Guerrero’s Statcast page seemingly indicates that a turn-around is imminent or almost inevitable, and yet as the calendar has now reached September, the first baseman has still yet to get hot for any extended period of time.  Guerrero’s best production came early in the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, but he has hit only .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since May 5.

Hailed as a future cornerstone superstar and the game’s best prospect during his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero seemed well on his way to living up to the hype with his sensational 2021 campaign.  Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and likely would’ve won AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani’s legendary two-way performance.

Rather than build on that big season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA.  While not exactly a cause for concern considering that a 132+ wRC is still outstanding, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some issues that have become larger issues in 2023.  For one, Guerrero’s chase rates and chase contact rates have been well below average in 2022-23, as pitchers have learned that Guerrero is prone to swinging at pitches outside the zone with less-than-stellar results.

While Guerrero doesn’t strike out much, his tendency to chase has led to a lot of his hard-hit balls staying on the ground.  Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder rate this season, and an even 50% grounder rate since the start of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest among qualified hitters in that span.  Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average speed, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it perhaps isn’t surprising that Guerrero has hit into 46 double plays since Opening Day 2022, tied for the most of any player in the league.

Guerrero has always had pretty high groundball rates over his five MLB seasons, yet in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball rate resulted in that big 48-homer year.  He has only a 31.9% fly ball rate in the two seasons since, with rather a stark dropoff in overall power.  The first baseman’s Isolated Power metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 last season to .169 this season.

As much as 2021 seemed like the first taste of what Guerrero was “supposed to be” as a budding superstar, it also stands out as an outlier within Guerrero’s five Major League seasons.  It is also worth noting that the 2021 season was also an outlier for the Blue Jays in general, as COVID-related border restrictions kept the team from actually playing in Toronto until the end of July.  Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.

Since the pandemic also forced the Jays to play in Buffalo during the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has only played 241 games at his actual home ballpark in his career, and there is evidence that Guerrero has yet to entirely get comfortable at Rogers Centre.  Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 career PA in Toronto, but his home/road splits have been unusually drastic this season.  Guerrero has only a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as compared to a much more respectable .837 OPS in road games.

The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season seems to have had some impact on overall offense, as Statcast’s Park Factor calculations rank Toronto as a slightly below-average hitting environment this season after years of being seen as a park that generally favors hitters.  Of course, there are some on-field factors that go into this calculation, as the reduced offense might have less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a strong defense and good pitching staff this season, or their own lineup’s lack of production.  And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.

Beyond offense, Guerrero also hasn’t been helping his cause on defense.  Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Average) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step back after Guerrero had seemingly been improving as a first baseman in past seasons.  The public metrics have always been somewhat split on Guerrero’s defense, yet DRS gave him plus grades in both 2021 and 2022, while he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.

Given that he is close to competing his fifth MLB season, it is still almost a surprise to remember that Guerrero won’t turn 25 years old until March, and his prime years might well still be ahead of him.  Of course, this is small consolation to a team built to win right now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season also creates some new questions about his status as a long-term building block.  He is arbitration-controlled for two more seasons and will be due a raise on his $14.5MM salary in 2023, with his early-career success and Super Two status combining to give the first baseman some hefty paydays throughout his arb years.

The question of whether the Blue Jays will sign Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering question for years, yet since Bichette is also controlled through 2025, it isn’t necessarily a question the Jays have to face just yet.  However, Guerrero’s 2023 performance is far from the ideal for a franchise player, and as that huge 2021 season gets further in the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays might still not know exactly what they have in Guerrero.

A big September would go a long way towards salvaging this season from a personal perspective and a team perspective if Guerrero can finally break out and carry the Jays into the playoffs.  But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.

Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Vlad, September Call-Ups

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Blue Jays fans cringed in collective fashion when both Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman exited Sunday’s game due to injuries. Chapman has already been placed on the injured list with a strain in his right hand, while Bichette was out of last night’s lineup due to the quad discomfort that forced him from the prior day’s contest. While the Jays termed his exit precautionary, Bichette underwent an MRI last night, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. The team will presumably have an update on the star shortstop’s status today.

Toronto called up journeyman infielder Ernie Clement when Chapman hit the IL and went with him at shortstop and rookie Davis Schneider at third base in yesterday’s win over the Nationals. The 24-year-old Schneider has already popped five homers in his first 48 big league plate appearances, batting .425/.521/.875 in that tiny sample. Schneider has also fanned at a 29.2% rate and is sporting an outlandish .571 BABIP that he won’t sustain, but he’s nevertheless provided a jolt for the Toronto lineup. That arrangement could be in place a bit more regularly if Bichette misses time, although there’s room for the Jays to get creative.

One possibility that’s currently under consideration would be at least occasional time back at the hot corner for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it seems. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that while the Jays aren’t currently planning to start Guerrero at third base in Chapman’s absence, they’re open to using him there late in games as they make substitutions around the diamond. Guerrero has been taking grounders at the hot corner in recent days.

It’s also worth noting that the Jays will soon have two more roster spots to potentially add some depth with Chapman out at least 10 days and Bichette potentially sidelined as well. Rosters are set to expand from 26 to 28 players on Sept. 1, which could clear a path for Toronto to tap further into its minor league system for reinforcements. Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic suggests that infielders Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Spencer Horwitz could all be considered for a big league call when rosters expand.

Each of Barger, Martinez and Horowitz is already on the 40-man roster. The former two could benefit the Jays with their versatility, as that pair has experience at each of shortstop, third base and second base. Horwitz has played primarily first base and left field in his professional career.

FanGraphs currently ranks Barger as the game’s No. 36 overall prospect. He’s spent time on the injured list but has turned in a .257/.371/.414 slash in 65 Triple-A games since returning, walking at a hearty 14.6% clip against a 21.1% strikeout rate. He hit .308/.378/.555 between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A last year. Martinez landed on Baseball America’s top-100 list prior to the 2021 and 2022 seasons but saw his stock tumble with a rough year in Double-A last year. The 21-year-old, has bounced back to some extent this season, posting a combined .242/.344/.496 line between Double-A and Triple-A (including a .276/.355/.517 slash at the higher of those two levels). Horwitz went 2-for-8 with a pair of walks in a brief MLB debut earlier this season and has slashed .339/.450/.499 in 476 Triple-A plate appearances, walking (15.8%) more often than he’s struck out (15.1%) in the process.

Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?

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The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.

The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.

  • Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
  • Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.

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  • Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
  • Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.

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  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
  • Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.

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  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.

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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)

And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

MLB Finalizes Home Run Derby Participants

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Major League Baseball has announced the field for the 2023 Home Run Derby. The full list of participants:

It is a single-elimination bracket. First-round matchups are as follows: Robert/Rutschman, Alonso/Rodríguez, Betts/Guerrero, García/Arozarena. Rodríguez and Alonso are the only two repeat players from last year’s event. Alonso had won the event back-to-back times in 2019-21 (there was no Derby in 2020 because of the pandemic) before Rodríguez knocked him out in the semifinal round last season. Juan Soto took down Rodríguez to win the tournament but declined to try to defend his title.

The Derby will take place Monday evening at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. Under the collective bargaining agreement, the winner will receive $1MM. The runner-up takes home $500K, while every other participant receives $150K. The player who hits the longest home run wins $100K.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

AL East Notes: Cleavinger, Guerrero, Severino

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Rays reliever Garrett Cleavinger suffered a knee injury during the 10th inning of today’s 7-6 victory over the Yankees.  Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) that Cleavinger’s knee “grabbed on him” during a critical rundown play that eventually saw Aaron Hicks thrown out at home plate while trying to score the go-ahead run.  More will be known once Cleavinger undergoes testing, but Cash indicated that the left-hander will likely be placed on the 15-day injured list.

Like most hurlers on the league-leading Rays, Cleavinger is having a nice season, with a 3.00 ERA over 15 appearances and 12 innings pitched.  A 13% walk rate and a .160 BABIP are red flags, but Cleavinger is missing a lot of bats (30.4% strikeout rate) and is doing an excellent job of inducing soft contact.  Tampa has Colin Poche, Jalen Beeks, and Josh Fleming already in the bullpen as other left-handed options, though Fleming has recently been enlisted into bulk pitcher duty.  If the Rays aren’t concerned about keeping the lefty/righty balance in their pen, they can turn to any number of arms in the farm system, and hopefully Cleavinger won’t be sidelined for too long.

More from around the AL East…

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has missed the Blue Jays’ last two games due to soreness in his left wrist, though MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson tweets that Guerrero was feeling slightly better today.  Naturally the Jays are being as cautious as possible with the star slugger, while also hoping that Guerrero can avoid an IL stint altogether.  Toronto has off-days on both Monday and Thursday this week, and manager John Schneider said Guerrero will be re-evaluated prior to the Jays’ game Tuesday with the Phillies.
  • Luis Severino is slated for a Triple-A rehab start on Wednesday or Thursday this week, as the Yankees right-hander gets closer to making his 2023 debut.  Severino suffered a right lat strain near the end of Spring Training that resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL, though he told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that he felt the Yankees were being too conservative in his rehab plan.  For instance, Severino thought he could’ve started his rehab assignment last week rather than throwing a 40-pitch simulated game, as he felt working in a proper game environment with a pitch clock was more helpful in getting him ready for a big league return.  New York manager Aaron Boone said that Severino will need to make at least two rehab starts before being reinstated from the IL, so given the team’s cautious approach, Severino might not be back until the Yankees’ May 23-25 series with the Orioles.

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Have Discussed Extension

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The Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have discussed a contract extension, though it doesn’t appear the two sides got anywhere close to a deal, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The slugger said that he would love to stay in Toronto for his entire career but that the negotiations “haven’t reached the point that there’s something serious about it.”

It’s unclear exactly when these talks took place but Guerrero said in January that extension talks had not yet taken place. That would seemingly point to the negotiations taking place during Spring Training, a fairly standard time for those kinds of conversations.

From the point of view of the Jays, it’s hardly a surprise that they have interest in securing Guerrero’s services for the future. The former top prospect has established himself as a premier hitter in the majors over the past few seasons. He hit 48 home runs in 2021 and slashed .311/.401/.601 for a wRC+ of 166. In most years, that would have been good enough for an MVP award, but Vladdy had the misfortune of having that season coincide with Shohei Ohtani’s true emergence as a two-way player. That led to Guerrero coming in second in the vote behind Ohtani.

Last year, Guerrero dipped slightly but still hit 32 home runs and put up a .274/.339/.480 batting line and 132 wRC+. He also stole eight bases and showed progress with his first base defense, winning a Gold Glove award and coming in seventh among all major league first basemen in the voting for the Fielding Bible Awards. He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .400/.472/.556 through 11 games. All of that has coincided with a return to contention for the club, who made the expanded playoffs in 2020 and then tallied 91 and 92 victories in the subsequent two seasons.

But from the player’s point of view, there’s little reason for him to settle for anything below market value, even if his comments about wanting to stay are genuine. As the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, who made millions of dollars in his career, the younger Guerrero likely began from a stronger financial position than many of his peers. On top of that, he was a highly touted player as a teenager, signing a bonus of $3.9MM when he was 16 years old. He’s now progressed through to his arbitration years, first qualifying last year as a Super Two player. He made $7.9MM last year and got that bumped up to $14.5MM this year. He’s slated for two more passes through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2025.

With all of that money already in the bank and plenty more on the way, Guerrero has tons of leverage. Walking away from money always carries the risk of a serious injury later diminishing one’s earning power, but Guerrero already has plenty of security and is currently slated for free agency ahead of his age-27 season. He doesn’t play a premier defensive position, but his youth and offensive abilities should still make him quite attractive as a free agent if a deal with the Blue Jays doesn’t get done.

The Blue Jays have a few contracts on the books beyond that 2025 season, which is currently lined up to be Guerrero’s last. José Berríos is on the books through 2028 while George Springer and Kevin Gausman are signed through 2026. That leaves plenty of room for a big contract for someone like Guerrero, but the Jays also have other players to consider. Third baseman Matt Chapman is a free agent at the end of this season, while shortstop Bo Bichette is in the same boat as Guerrero, set for free agency after 2025. The club has also reportedly had some talks with right-hander Alek Manoah, though those didn’t appear to gain much traction either. Manoah’s case is less urgent since he’s not slated to hit the open market until after 2027.

Although the talks with Guerrero haven’t made much progress yet, he doesn’t seem to be walking away from the table. “I’m going to take care of what I’ve got to take care of, which is on the field, and the rest I’m going to leave to my agents to work with,” he said. “I know who I am. I know my value. We’re going to keep having conversations, but all my focus every day is here on the field.”

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