Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays have made another contract offer to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., reports Buster Olney of ESPN. No specifics of the offer have been publicly reported but Olney says a gap remains between the two sides.

The will-they-won’t-they between the Jays and Guerrero has been playing out for years now, but with a special focus on the drama this winter. Guerrero is now slated for free agency after the 2025 season, which begins today for the Jays. It’s common for players to set Opening Day as a deadline in contract talks, to avoid distractions during the season. Guerrero initially went a step further and set a deadline of February 18, the opening of Spring Training.

That day came and went without a deal getting done, though Guerrero subsequently said he would keep the door open if the Jays wanted to come back to the table. Reportedly, Guerrero’s asking price was a deal of at least 14 years and worth $500MM. The Jays reportedly did make him an offer in February with a sticker price of $500MM, but with deferrals that would knock the net present value down to the $400-450MM range. Guerrero is said to be open to deferrals generally but would still like the NPV to get to that $500MM line.

In a sense, that $50-100MM gap is not large. For a deal of that length, that’s about $3.5MM to $7MM annually. In an annual baseball budget, that’s what clubs spend on a veteran reliever or a backup catcher. That would appear to be a bridgeable gap. That’s perhaps especially true when looking at the broader picture. Guerrero has been the face of the franchise for many years now. The Jays have tried to sign other marquee players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki but without success.

The regime of president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins has seemingly left a large segment of the fanbase discontent. There has been a lot of regular season success in recent years but the Jays have been swept in all of their most recent playoff appearances. Many things went wrong in 2024, which exacerbated the frustration.

Letting Guerrero walk for a relatively small financial gap would likely be unwelcome from a public relations perspective, whereas getting a deal done on Opening Day could theoretically provide a nice boost to fan morale.

The front office seems to view the situation as one that can be resolved. Shapiro recently expressed confidence that a deal would get done, either an extension or later in free agency. That was an unusual bit of candor, since front office types usually duck questions about ongoing negotiations. Atkins made somewhat similar comments yesterday, per Hazel Mae of Sportsnet and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com.

Presumably, this new offer from the Jays has moved closer to Guerrero’s asking price. Though as mentioned, no details have been publicly reported. A deal in this range would be fairly unprecedented, for the Jays or any other club.

As of a few months ago, no player had received a contract with an NPV at $500MM or higher. At the start of the 2024-25 offseason, the largest deal on record was Ohtani’s ten-year, $700MM pact with the Dodgers. Thanks to the heavy deferrals in that deal, Major League Baseball calculated the AAV as $46.06MM with the MLBPA at $43.78MM, meaning the NPV on the deal was roughly $437-460MM. Even those reduced numbers were all records, in terms of largest guarantee and largest AAV ever.

Each of those numbers is now a distant second, thanks to Soto’s deal. He got $765MM over 15 years with no deferrals, meaning his net present value shattered Ohtani’s. The AAV on that is $51MM, which also went notably beyond Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted AAV.

A hypothetical deal worth $500MM over 14 years would be a $35.7MM AAV. That would be well below Soto and Ohtani but still put Guerrero in the top 15 of all contracts by AAV, ahead of players like Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts. The total guarantee would be second all-time, when adjusting Ohtani’s down.

Guerrero hasn’t been quite as elite as Ohtani or Soto but still has a strong track record for a player his age. Many top prospects don’t reach the majors until their mid-20s but Guerrero just turned 26 earlier this month, which is a huge part of his earning power. He already has 819 games under his belt with 160 home runs, a .288/.363/.500 batting line and 137 wRC+. He was even better than that in both 2021 and 2024. Though he dipped a bit in the two seasons in between, he hit .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ last year. He’s not an especially strong defender at first but he has accomplished a lot with the bat already. If he and the Jays can’t work out a new deal, he will be one of the top free agents of next year’s class.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Last week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. told ESPN that his asking price in extension negotiations with the Blue Jays was south of $600MM. The star first baseman didn’t publicly identify his exact demand, though he noted he was looking for a 14-plus year deal.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic provides more specifics, reporting that Guerrero wanted a net present value of $500MM to bypass testing the open market. That could have taken the form of an even $500MM+ without deferrals or a deferred deal with a loftier overall guarantee that would still have pushed the NPV to half a billion dollars. A hypothetical 14-year extension worth $500MM would come with an approximate $35.7MM annual value and would run through Guerrero’s age-39 season (assuming it began this year).

The deferrals were evidently a sticking point. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post report that Toronto offered a deal that was in the $500MM range overall but included deferred money. According to that report, the NPV would have landed between $400MM and $450MM. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes that the NPV on the team’s offer was close to $450MM, suggesting they came in at the higher end of the range initially reported by The New York Post.

That would still have represented the third-largest guarantee in league history. Juan Soto easily holds the record at $765MM without deferrals. The Shohei Ohtani deal is respectively valued around $461MM and $438MM by the league and Players Association, respectively. Guerrero sought a number that would have placed him behind only Soto in net present value. His reported asking price was nowhere near Soto money, which so handily shattered prior precedent that it may be an outlier for a while. Still, it seemingly landed upwards of $50MM higher (in NPV terms) than the Jays were willing to go. Guerrero indicated he wasn’t interested in continuing negotiations beyond the opening of Spring Training. He has left the door open to reconsidering but said at the start of camp that he anticipates testing free agency.

The Jays have at least expressed a willingness to stretch the budget beyond Guerrero’s asking price for star players. They were seemingly willing to match the contract that Ohtani accepted from the Dodgers. Their precise offer to Soto isn’t clear but is believed to have been between $600MM and $700MM. That shows they’re not entirely averse to this kind of signing, yet it’s also a fact that the largest contract in franchise history remains the comparatively modest $150MM George Springer deal.

Toronto’s latest offer represents a significant jump from where they opened talks. Guerrero said over the offseason that the Jays’ offers before the Soto bidding were in the $340MM range. While the Soto price point didn’t make them willing to write a blank check for Guerrero, it seemingly contributed to them going $60MM+ above where they had been in terms of present value.

Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. At his best, he looks like one of the top five hitters in the game. He hasn’t quite maintained that level on an annual basis, though. He finished among the top six in MVP balloting in 2021 (finishing runner-up that year) and ’24. In the intervening two seasons, he hit .269/.341/.462 across nearly 1400 plate appearances. That’s still very good but not the kind of overwhelming numbers that’d force teams to essentially overlook questions about his defensive profile.

Assuming he gets to the market, Guerrero is likely to be the top free agent in the class. Kyle Tucker is arguably a better overall player, but the Cubs outfielder will hit free agency at age 29. Guerrero will get to the market at 27. The two-year age gap gives Guerrero the better chance to land a deal that stretches beyond a decade despite teams’ general reluctance to make extremely long commitments to first basemen.

Extension talks between the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t result in a deal before the start of Spring Training. That has been the slugger’s self-imposed deadline. While he left the door ajar to hearing out other offers from Toronto, Guerrero said last month that he expects to test free agency.

The four-time All-Star provided some details on negotiations in a Spanish-language interview with Enrique Rojas and Juan Arturo Recio of ESPN. ESPN has also published a summary of Guerrero’s comments in English. Most notably, he says that his camp’s final offer to the Jays checked in below $600MM, though he did not provide the specific asking price. He pushed back against the suggestion that he was seeking a deal comparable to the $765MM which Juan Soto secured from the Mets.

While Guerrero seemingly wasn’t pursuing an average annual value close to Soto’s $51MM mark, he did seek one of the largest contracts ever. Guerrero indicated he was looking for 14 or 15 years. Soto’s 15-year contract is the longest of all time. Fernando Tatis Jr. inked a 14-year extension, but that began in his age-22 season. Guerrero turns 26 in a few weeks. Even if the extension proposal would have bought out his final arbitration year, a deal of 14-plus years would run through at least age 39.

The Jays were involved in the Soto bidding. They were seemingly among the teams willing to go above $600MM on the superstar outfielder. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported shortly after Soto agreed to his deal with the Mets that Toronto’s last offer landed below $700MM. One could argue they should be willing to make a similar investment for Guerrero, but his track record has been less consistent — which is reflected in the comparably lower asking price.

Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. Soto has a lifetime .285/.421/.532 batting line; he hit .288/.419/.569 with 41 longballs during his walk year with the Yankees. Guerrero said in December that the Jays had made an offer in the $340MM range prior to the Soto contract. That would have valued him similarly to Rafael Devers, who inked a $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox in 2023. Devers was a career .283/.342/.512 hitter who was entering his age-26 season at the time. While he played a more valuable position, he’s a below-average defender at the hot corner.

It remains to be seen whether the Soto contract will dramatically improve the market for future top free agents. Teams could view him as an outlier, the kind of free agent who might only come along once every few decades. From a net present value perspective, Soto obliterated prior precedent. Shohei Ohtani’s deal was valued around $461MM and $438MM by MLB and the Players Association, respectively. That reflected the massive deferral structure. Either net present value still represented the largest contract in league history at the time. Soto broke that record by more than $300MM.

Guerrero and Kyle Tucker headline next winter’s free agent class. Tucker is coming off a monster .289/.408/.585 showing and plays a solid right field. He’s arguably the better player in the short term, but Guerrero is two years younger. That could give him the greatest earning power in the class, though it’ll obviously be heavily dependent on their respective platform seasons. Guerrero will make $28.5MM in his final year of arbitration.

Blue Jays position players reported to camp this morning for the club’s first full-squad workout of the spring, and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set a deadline of today for extension talks with the club ahead of his final season under club control before free agency. That deadline has come and gone, and Guerrero told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) this morning that the sides did not reach a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Guerrero does not intend to negotiate during the season and now expects to reach free agency, while Hazel Mae relays (Video Link) that Guerrero noted he “would not close the door” on signing if Toronto brass presented him with a “realistic” offer.

Guerrero, still just 25 until March 16, is one of the most accomplished young players in the league and is likely to enter free agency as the most sought-after player available. A four-time All-Star with a Gold Glove award at first base and two Silver Slugger awards under his belt, Guerrero is a .288/.363/.500 (137 wRC+) hitter for his career. That type of offensive talent will always be enticing to clubs in free agency, but what makes Guerrero stand out as a top-of-the-class hitter is his combination of youth and ceiling.

Few hitters in the game can accomplish what Guerrero has in his peak seasons; his 2021 campaign was second only to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting as he hit .311/.401/.601 (166 wRC+). His 48 home runs were tied with Salvador Perez for the most in the majors that year, and his .401 on-base percentage led the American League while trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in the NL. Steps back offensively in 2022 and ’23 raised questions regarding whether that otherworldly performance might be a fluke, but Guerrero squashed those concerns by more or less repeating his 2021 heroics this past season. Guerrero slashed a sensational .323/.396/.544 (165 wRC+) in 159 games for the Jays this past year, hitting “just” 30 homers in the process but making up for that with a career-best 44 doubles and a 13.8% strikeout rate that was the lowest of his career. Just nine qualified MLB hitters struck out less often than Guerrero in 2024, and among that group only Jose Ramirez and his 39-homer campaign were able to top Guerrero’s .221 isolated slugging percentage.

Reaching free agency on the heels of his age-26 season should make Guerrero all the more attractive in free agency come November. Guerrero will hit the open market just one year older than Juan Soto was during his own free agency this past winter, and that young age was crucial for Soto in securing his record-shattering deal that figures to pay him $765MM over the next 15 years and could max out at more than $800MM. That massive payday came in spite of Soto being a limited defender in the outfield corners who does not provide substantial value on the basepaths. While Soto is arguably in a class all his own as a hitter, with his career 158 wRC+ nearly matching Guerrero’s peak seasons, his record payday is still great news for the Jays’ slugger as there’s arguably no better comparison for Soto in the league than Guerrero at his peak.

Given that, it’s easy to imagine the bidding for Guerrero’s services surpassing half of a billion dollars. That seems to be right around where Guerrero set the bar in extension talks with Toronto, as reports regarding his asking price have suggested he was looking for north of $450MM. As Passan notes, Guerrero answered with a simple “No” when asked if the Blue Jays had put forth an offer that was close to his price point, and given Guerrero said earlier this winter that Toronto’s offer to him prior to Soto’s deal with the Mets sat at $340MM it’s hard to argue with his assessment unless the club brought their offer significantly higher over the course of the offseason.

Given the gap between the Guerrero’s rumored demands and the offer he said the Blue Jays made, it’s hardly a shock that the sides did not work out a deal. That’s reflected in a poll of MLBTR readers last month, where just 19.49% of respondents believed Guerrero would sign long-term with the club before today’s self-imposed deadline. Even so, Guerrero made clear to reporters that he’d still like to be a Blue Jay for life even as he went on to note that Toronto will now have to compete with 29 other clubs for his services on the open market. On the other hand, he also noted (as relayed by Matheson) his desire to win a World Series championship with his next club. That desire to win could hurt the Blue Jays’ odds of keeping Guerrero, as they finished dead last in a crowded AL East division with a 74-88 record. They appear to be longshots for the postseason this year as well after the Yankees and Orioles augmented their already playoff-caliber clubs while the Red Sox put together a strong offseason that saw them add multiple star players in Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman.

As for the front office’s perspective, club GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters shortly after Guerrero did and expressed disappointment that a deal did not get done, as relayed by Matheson. Atkins went on to emphasize that the club “worked very hard” in their efforts to come together on a deal and added that the “motivation” on the organization’s part to keep their superstar in the fold is “still there.” Atkins refused to get into specifics regarding numbers and contract offers but described their offer to Guerrero as one that would’ve been record-setting for the Blue Jays and made Guerrero “one of the highest paid players” in baseball if signed (video link via Mae). Atkins also made clear that the club’s inability to get a deal done with Guerrero was not a matter of resources, though that’s hardly a surprise given their high-dollar bids for Ohtani and Soto the past two winters.

Going forward, the Blue Jays figure to continue trying to win during Guerrero’s final year of club control. They’ve long resisted the possibility of trade talks involving their star slugger and, after spending $166MM to add Yimi Garcia, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free agency this winter while adding another $96.5MM in trade by taking on the Andres Gimenez contract from the Guardians, it seems unlikely that they would change course now rather than push in for 2025 and hope they can convince Guerrero to return next offseason. It’s possible that they could revisit the possibility of dealing Guerrero at the trade deadline this summer if they’ve fallen completely out of the playoff picture by then, however, and if shopped Guerrero would be the most impactful rental moved at a trade deadline since Manny Machado in 2018.