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Vinnie Pasquantino

Royals Notes: Lynch, Yarbrough, Hosmer, Pasquantino

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Daniel Lynch is ready for his first appearance of the 2023 season, as the Royals announced the left-hander as their scheduled starter for Sunday’s game with the Nationals.  Lynch suffered a left rotator cuff strain in the final few days of Spring Training, and after a brief shutdown period returned to action in a minor league rehab assignment in early May.

Lynch tossed six shutout innings last Tuesday in what ended up being his final rehab outing, as he looked a lot shakier in posting a 5.65 ERA over 14 1/3 innings of work in his previous four outings.  As he told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters, Lynch felt he had “to do something to show them that I’m 100 percent ready.  There were some conversations that weren’t easy to have, some conversations that I didn’t necessarily want to have.  But [I] ended up going and stepping up.”

A struggling rotation has been one of many reasons behind the Royals’ dismal 15-37 start, and if Lynch is able to provide help, it would be a huge boost to both Kansas City’s pitching staff and Lynch’s bigger-picture future.  The 34th overall pick of the 2018 draft has yet to deliver much at either the MLB level or even at Triple-A (5.16 ERA over 82 innings), and his 2 1/3 innings of Double-A rehab work this season represents his only experience in Double-A ball.  Lynch’s work at the team’s alternate training site in 2020 made the Royals confident that they could fast-track him to Triple-A in 2021, but the southpaw has yet to deliver on his top-100 prospect potential.

There hasn’t been much to like about Lynch’s 199 2/3 innings in the big leagues, as he has allowed a ton of hard contact en route to a 5.32 ERA, 19.4% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate.  The Royals completely overhauled their pitching development team (including the hiring of Brian Sweeney as pitching coach) during the offseason in the hopes of getting more from Lynch and other high draft picks like Lynch, Kris Bubic, or Jackson Kowar, but the results haven’t been there with the youngsters or even the more veteran members of the K.C. staff.  Brady Singer looked to have broken out in 2022, but he has struggled to a 7.48 ERA over his first 49 1/3 innings of 2023.

Beyond any on-field struggles, the pitching staff was also dealt a scarier blow when Ryan Yarbrough was hit in the face by a Ryan Noda line drive on May 7.  Yarbrough sustained multiple facial fractures and was placed on the 60-day injured list, but fortunately, the left-hander gave a positive update when visiting teammates and the media today.

“I have a four-week appointment to see where I’m at with the healing process and just kind of go from there,” Yarbrough told the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson and other reporters.  “Until then, just kind of staying active and doing everything I can….It’s one of those freak accidents and something that is really out of everyone’s control.  It wasn’t something you can really avoid.  It’s an unfortunate part of the game and luckily it doesn’t happen very often.  I’m very blessed to be here right now and feeling a lot better and progressing in the right direction.”

In other Royals news, manager Matt Quatraro said the Royals “haven’t even discussed” the possibility of bringing Eric Hosmer back to Kansas City after the veteran first baseman was recently released by the Cubs.  Speaking during a radio interview with KCSP 610AM (hat tip to Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star), Quatraro noted that the Royals don’t really have space for Hosmer, as Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto have the first base and DH positions covered.

“So, you bring somebody in, then what you’re talking about is not as an everyday player that’s going to take somebody else’s spot that needs the at-bats or need the innings pitched, so that’s the kind of thing you have to balance,” Quatraro said.

After a strong rookie performance in 2022, Pasquantino has kept things going this year by hitting .260/.344/.474 with nine home runs over his first 219 plate appearances of the 2023 campaign.  The 25-year-old certainly looks like a nice building block for K.C. going forward, though it isn’t really known if the Royals have made any attempt to lock Pasquantino up to an extension.  Pasquantino told Grathoff that he had “no information” about any contract talks, and Royals GM J.J. Picollo also declined comment.

Pasquantino is already under team control through the 2028 season, so the Royals don’t have to be in any kind of real rush to sign the first baseman to an extension, and might simply prefer to wait to see what they have in Pasquantino before exploring a longer-term deal.  Reiterated an earlier point he made on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, Pasquantino said that for his part, he wants to remain with the Royals, saying “I think for every player, you dream of playing for the same team your entire career.  I really enjoy this organization.  So on the surface, yes, I’d love to stay here.”

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K – 2022-23 Edition

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Last offseason, I tried to find under-the-radar minor league prospects by looking at how much a hitter walked and struck out. Sometimes, these stats can indicate a hitter has a keen eye at the plate which will help them succeed as they move up the minor league ladder. I used Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez as examples of young players who had strong BB/K rates in the minors who then went on to have greater MLB success than many prospect evaluators had projected.

Looking at 2021 stats, I highlighted players who had 300 or more plate appearances at Double-A and/or Triple-A and a BB/K rate of 1.00 or higher. Did this help us find hidden gems? Let’s look at the results before moving on to this year’s crop. The names on the list were Alejo Lopez, Isaac Paredes, Steven Kwan, Tyler White, Cooper Hummel and Jonah Bride.

Two of these players had breakout years in 2022. Kwan made his MLB debut and had a tremendous season on both sides of the ball. He provided excellent outfield defense and continued his great work at the plate, walking more than he struck out at the major league level. He had a season strong enough he could have won Rookie of the Year honors in another year, but he had to settle for third this year due to an incredible batch of rookie campaigns that also included Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman. The other breakout was Paredes, who was traded to the Rays in April as part of the Austin Meadows deal. He hit 20 home runs in 111 games while posting walk and strikeout rates that were both better than league average. Paredes is less of a hidden gem since he snuck onto the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 in 2019 and 2020, though he had fallen off in the two subsequent seasons. Kwan never made it onto the top 100 and only made the top 30 among Cleveland farmhands for the first time going into 2022, coming in at #27. FanGraphs, it’s worth noting, was far more bullish, slotting Kwan third in the Guardians system and 57th overall heading into the year.

Most of the rest of the group is TBD, as they only got limited MLB appearances. Lopez was frequently optioned and got into 61 games in the majors, still proving very tough to strike out but not doing much damage when he did connect. Hummel struggled in his first 66 games but still hit very well in the minors, walking in 15.4% of his plate appearances and slashing .310/.423/.527. The Mariners must be intrigued by him, since they just traded Kyle Lewis to get him from the Diamondbacks. Bride made his MLB debut and scuffled in 58 games but hit .342/.453/.568 in the minors while still walking more than he struck out. As for White, he was 31 last year and only really plays first base, making it hard for him to carve out a role on a major league team. He started the year in the Brewers’ system but was acquired by the Braves in a midseason trade. Between the Triple-A teams of the two organizations, he had another decent season at the plate, walking in 16% of his appearances while striking out just 20.1% of the time.

Out of six guys highlighted last year, two became MLB regulars, two didn’t immediately hit the ground running but still hit well in the minors and another two were sort of mediocre. It’s not a perfect system but not a bad shorthand, in my opinion. A common theme you will see with the players below is their strike zone discipline often comes with a lack of power. In order to turn this profile into a breakout, that usually means the hitter needs to get stronger or change their approach slightly. In the case of Paredes, he seems to have started selling out more in 2022, as his strikeout rate climbed but so did his isolated power. Kwan didn’t add power, only going deep six times, but his on-base skills were combined with speed and defense to help him be an all-around producer.

If we look at the 2022 numbers, can we find next year’s Kwan or Paredes? Even if that’s setting our sights too high, some of these guys are Rule 5 eligible and could be candidates to be nabbed in next month’s draft. Let’s take a look at the players with a BB/K rate at 1.00 or above with 300 or more plate appearances at Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2022.

Michael Stefanic, infielder, Angels, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 2.18

Stefanic got 346 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, walking in 13.9% of them while striking out just 6.4% of the time. He didn’t provide much power, however, hitting only four home runs in that time despite playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His final batting line there was .314/.422/.425 for a wRC+ of 122. He also got into 25 major league games without finding much success. It’s a somewhat similar profile to another Angels infielder in David Fletcher. Stefanic was an undrafted free agent, has never been on BA’s top 100 and only cracked the Angels’ top 30 for the first time a year ago. He’ll turn 27 in February.

Nick Dunn, infielder, Cardinals, BB/K rate at Double-A: 1.50

The Cardinals seem to have a knack for turning their lesser draft picks into solid major leaguers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a couple of them on this list. Dunn was selected in the fifth round in 2018 and has never cracked a BA list of top prospects in the system, though he was mentioned at FanGraphs, where Eric Longenhagen called him “a free-swinging Brendan Donovan — same hair and everything.” In 2022, Dunn got 472 plate appearances and walked 13.3% of the time while striking out at just a 8.9% clip. Similar to Stefanic, it hasn’t resulted in much power, with Dunn only hitting seven long balls on the year, which was a career high. He’ll be 26 in January. He’s eligible to be selected in next month’s Rule 5 draft.

John Nogowski, first base/outfielder, free agent, BB/K rate at Double-A and Triple-A: 1.08

Nogowski got some brief MLB looks in 2020 and 2021 and couldn’t do much with them. He split 2022 between Atlanta’s and Washington’s system, getting 483 plate appearances while walking more than he struck out. Similar to the players above him, it didn’t result in much power, as he went deep eight times and produced a batting line of .248/.366/.362. A 34th-round draft pick from 2014, he’s never been on a team prospect list at BA or FanGraphs. He’ll turn 30 in January.

Willians Astudillo, utility player, free agent, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.06

It’s likely that you’re already familiar with “La Tortuga” since he’s appeared in the majors for the past five years and has become a fan favorite. He hardly ever strikes out but also hardly ever walks or goes deep, which is why he’s had trouble sticking in the majors despite incredible bat-to-ball skills. He spent most of this year in Triple-A for the Marlins, hitting very well down there. However, he’s now 31 and hasn’t produced much over 588 career plate appearances in the majors.

Vinnie Pasquantino, first base, Royals, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.03

This one is the hardest to call a hidden gem since Pasquantino is already on display. That being said, the 11th round draft pick from 2019 wasn’t a highly-touted prospect until a strong 2021 campaign got him onto the list of top farmhands in the Royals’ system from both BA and FanGraphs going into 2022. He got called up in late June and acclimated to big league pitching immediately. He had already walked more than he struck out at Triple-A in the first half of the year and then did the same in the show. He also went deep 18 times in Triple-A and 10 times in the majors. He only has 298 MLB plate appearances but the signs are pointing to him being the real deal. He just turned 25 last month.

Evan Mendoza, infielder, Cardinals, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.00

Another Cardinal, Mendoza was an 11th round draft pick in 2017. In 421 plate appearances this year, his strikeouts and walks came out even at 56. Unfortunately, like some others on this list, his contact wasn’t terribly productive, resulting in a slash line of .247/.348/.325. He did add a speed element to his game recently, though, swiping 15 bags last year and 17 this year. With the new rules coming into play that encourage more baserunning, perhaps his on-base skills will help him prove valuable. He’s never cracked the top 30 prospects in the system at either BA or FanGraphs, though FG did put him at #34 back in 2018. He’s eligible to be selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

Tanner Morris, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K rate at Double-A and Triple-A: 1.00

Morris began his year in Double-A, getting 186 plate appearances with matching 16.1% walk and strikeout rates. He hit five homers in that sample while slashing an excellent .312/.430/.468. He got bumped to Triple-A but couldn’t keep things rolling, perhaps due to a .233 BABIP, as he hit .173/.352/.173 in 126 plate appearances there. However, he again posted matching walk and strikeout rates of 19.8%, meaning he finished the year with rates of 17.6% over 312 plate appearances between the two levels. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and got into 15 games, walking 15 times against nine Ks for a batting line of .279/.466/.372. A fifth round pick from 2019, he’s been on the back end of Toronto prospect lists over the past few years. He recently turned 25 and is Rule 5 eligible.

Bryce Windham, catcher, Cubs, BB/K rate at Double-A: 1.00

A 32nd round pick of the 2019 draft, Windham got 304 plate appearances at Double-A this year, finishing with walk and strikeout totals of 44, a 14.5% rate for each. It was quite tepid production overall, leading to a batting line of just .202/.322/.289, though his .227 BABIP was well below his previous seasons. He’s never been listed as a top prospect in the system by either BA or FanGraphs. He recently turned 26 and is Rule 5 eligible.

Injury Notes: Kopech, Pasquantino, Ashcraft, Tigers

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The White Sox placed starter Michael Kopech on the 15-day injured list this afternoon due to a left knee strain. The righty seemed to suffer the injury during warm-ups before yesterday’s start against the Royals, and his velocity was well down during the outing. Kopech didn’t record an out, allowing two hits, a walk and a hit batsman before being taken out of an eventual 6-4 loss. Alarming as that showing was, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times relays that the club expects Kopech to return when first eligible two weeks from now (Twitter link).

Even a minimal IL isn’t ideal for a Chicago team that entered play Tuesday three games back of the Guardians in the AL Central. Kopech has been one of the club’s more effective pitchers, carrying a 3.58 ERA through 110 2/3 innings (and a 3.25 mark if one throws out yesterday’s performance as an injury anomaly). Kopech’s strikeout and walk numbers haven’t been as impressive, however, and there are lingering questions about precisely how many innings the 26-year-old may be equipped to throw this year. He worked primarily in relief last season and tallied 69 1/3 frames during his first season back after missing all of 2019-20. He’s already eclipsed that mark by over 40 innings this year.

Catching up on some other injury situations around the game:

  • The Royals placed rookie designated hitter/first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort this afternoon. Like Kopech, the 24-year-old was injured in yesterday’s contest between Chicago and Kansas City. After a breakout 2021 season in the minors, Pasquantino emerged as one of the game’s top offensive prospects heading into this year. He mashed in Triple-A and has hit the ground running as a big leaguer, carrying a .263/.350/.434 showing with eight home runs and an excellent combination of walks (11%) and strikeouts (13.5%) through his first 200 MLB plate appearances. The left-handed hitter looks like a key long-term piece for a Kansas City team with its attention firmly turned towards 2023. Fellow top prospect Nick Pratto should pick up the first base playing time in Pasquantino’s absence, while Ryan O’Hearn and Hunter Dozier may get the majority of the DH at-bats. Kansas City didn’t specify a timetable on Pasquantino’s return.
  • Reds starter Graham Ashcraft landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 20, with biceps soreness. The rookie right-hander is headed for an MRI, but skipper David Bell indicated the club was optimistic about his ability to return before the end of the season (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The 24-year-old made his big league debut debut in May and has joined Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene as rookie rotation cogs for the Reds. Through 16 starts, the hard-throwing hurler owns a 3.97 ERA on the strength of an excellent 54.8% ground-ball rate. Ashcraft looks to have made a strong case for a rotation role next season, generally outperforming both Lodolo and Greene — each of whom has been more highly-regarded by most prospect evaluators.
  • The Tigers placed second baseman Jonathan Schoop on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 21, with a sprained right ankle. It’s the first IL stint in two years for the veteran infielder, who has played in just under 95% of Detroit’s games since the start of 2021. Schoop posted above-average numbers last year to earn a contract extension in August, but he’s had a dreadful showing offensively this season. Over 447 plate appearances, he’s hitting only .202/.235/.318 with nine home runs. Defensive metrics have been enamored with his glovework at the keystone, but no other qualified hitter is within 19 points of Schoop’s league-worst on-base percentage. He’s likely to exercise a $7.5MM player option this winter to return to the club for 2023.
  • Sticking with the Tigers, manager A.J. Hinch cast doubt on the possibility of seeing catcher Jake Rogers this season (via Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic). Rogers underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and he’s spent the entire year on the 60-day injured list while rehabbing. It’s almost been a calendar year since that operation. The 27-year-old Rogers hit .182/.264/.378 in 255 plate appearances between 2019-21.

Royals Trade Carlos Santana To Mariners, Promote Vinnie Pasquantino

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The Mariners have acquired first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana and cash from the Royals in exchange for right-handers Wyatt Mills and William Fleming, per a team announcement. The trade paves the road for the Royals to take an overdue look at top prospect Vinnie Pasquantino, whose contract has been formally selected from Triple-A Omaha, according to the team. Right-hander Ronald Bolanos has been designated for assignment in order to open a spot on Kansas City’s 40-man roster.

Carlos Santana | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Monday’s trade closes the book on a generally underwhelming Kansas City tenure for Santana, who inked a two-year, $17.5MM contract in advance of the 2021 season but has yet to round into the form that made him such a valuable contributor for years in Cleveland. The switch-hitting 36-year-old tallied 871 plate appearances with the Royals and posted just a .215/.326/.341 batting line — about 12% worse than league-average after weighting for park and league, by measure of wRC+.

Santana managed to turn things around in recent weeks, however, and has shown enough this month for the Mariners to take a low-cost look now that they suddenly find themselves in need of a first baseman. Ty France, Seattle’s most consistent hitter this season, recently landed on the injured list and figures to be out for a good bit longer than that 10-day minimum, given the diagnosis of a Grade 2 flexor strain. Santana shouldn’t be expected to fully replace France’s brilliant .316/.390/.476 batting line, but he’s managed a .298/.405/.468 output himself over his past 27 games and 111 plate appearances.

In all likelihood, the Royals are paying the vast majority of what remains on Santana’s contract. He’s still owed the balance of this year’s $10.5MM salary (about $5.8MM), and that number will increase based on plate appearances. Santana, who already has 212 plate appearances this season, will earn an additional $75K for every 25th plate appearance from 300 to 525.

It’s not the first time the Mariners have acquired Santana, though whenever he takes the field in a Mariners jersey, it’ll be his first actual game with the team. Seattle actually acquired Santana alongside J.P. Crawford in the deal that sent Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio and James Pazos to the Phillies back in Dec. 2018. However, not two weeks later, Santana was traded to Cleveland in the three-team swap that brought Edwin Encarnacion to Seattle. Encarnacion spent a half season slugging as the Mariners’ designated hitter before being flipped to the Yankees for righty Juan Then.

This time around, it’ll be a pair of right-handers going to Kansas City in exchange for the final three-plus months of control over Santana. Of the two righties in question, only Mills has big league experience thus far. The 27-year-old has pitched a total of 21 1/3 frames over the past two seasons but struggled to a 7.59 ERA with worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates in that time (17.3% and 10.2%, respectively).

Wyatt Mills | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Mills, the No. 93 overall pick in 2017, has more interesting but also inconsistent numbers in the upper minors. The sidearming righty fanned a whopping 44.7% of his opponents through 28 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball last year, for instance, but that rate has been halved so far in 2022 over the course of 19 2/3 innings. There’s no velocity change between his ’21 and ’22 campaigns, though Mills did throw more fastballs at the expense of some slider usage during this year’s small sample of 8 2/3 big league innings. The 6’4″ righty has never ranked as one of the Mariners’ very best prospects, but Baseball America has listed him among Seattle’s top 25 farmhands dating back to the time he was drafted.

Fleming, meanwhile, is a 23-year-old righty whom the Mariners selected in the 11th round just one year ago. He generally hasn’t been considered among the Mariners’ best prospects either — though FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen did tab him 28th earlier this year — and has posted fairly pedestrian numbers in Class-A Modesto despite being a former college arm who’s older than his average opponent at that level. So far, Fleming has tossed 67 2/3 innings over 14 starts and logged a 4.92 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate.

For the Royals, the arms received in exchange for Santana are secondary when it comes to this trade. The greater purpose of the swap was to at last open playing time for the 6’4″, 245-pound Pasquantino, who has mashed his way into top prospect status by dominating at every minor league stop, including Triple-A this season. So far, Pasquantino has taken 296 turns at the plate for the Storm Chasers and posted a huge .280/.372/.576 batting line with 18 home runs, 16 doubles two triples and more walks (37) than strikeouts (36).

Given his size and lack of speed, Pasquantino is locked into a first base-only (or designated hitter) profile, but there’s every indication so far that his bat will play in the Majors. Scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs indicate that he’s improved enough with the glove to be average or slightly better, and Pasquantino has never posted an OBP lower than .371 or a slugging percentage lower than .560 at any minor league level. And, given the dearth of strikeouts in his game, he’s been able to maintain a .293 average throughout his minor league tenure to date.

Even without much defensive value to prop up his value, Pasquantino ranks as the game’s No. 57 prospect over at Baseball America. He checks in 95th at FanGraphs and 98th at MLB.com, with all three scouting reports praising his plus (or better) hit tool and above-average power.

The organizational hope is that between Pasquantino and fellow slugger Nick Pratto — also a first base-only, top-100 prospect — they’ll have their first base and DH slots covered for years to come. Pasquantino’s promotion to the Majors is late enough that he should avoid Super Two status, and he’ll be controllable for at least six full seasons beyond the current campaign.

As for the 25-year-old Bolanos, he’s seen action with Kansas City in each of the past three seasons but has posted pedestrian numbers on the whole. Once a notable Padres signing out of Cuba, he was traded to the Royals alongside Franchy Cordero in the 2020 trade that sent Tim Hill to San Diego. He’s since combined for 28 1/3 innings of 4.76 ERA ball with a lackluster 24-to-17 K/BB ratio.

Bolanos does have a respectable 4.42 ERA in 18 1/3 innings this year, but his average fastball of 93.6 mph is down about two miles per hour from its peak and that ERA comes in spite of an even number of walks to strikeouts. Add in that he’s limped to a 5.49 ERA in 19 2/3 Triple-A frames this season, and it was enough for the Royals to decide they’re willing to move on. Of course, the DFA doesn’t necessarily spell the end of his time in the organization. Kansas City will have a week to trade Bolanos if there’s interest, but the Royals can also attempt to pass him through outright waivers at some point in the next week. If he goes unclaimed, he’d remain with the organization but no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.

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