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The Cubs’ Bullpen Outlook

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The Cubs entered spring training this year with their bullpen largely set. Offseason trade acquisitions of Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier added a pair of veteran righties — including a closer, Pressly — to the late-inning mix. Chicago signed lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one-year, $2.75MM deal. That trio joined Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Keegan Thompson as virtual locks. All three holdovers pitched very well in 2024, and the latter two are out of minor league options.

There are plenty of candidates for the remaining spots, the bulk of whom are on the 40-man roster already. Righty Julian Merryweather is coming off a poor showing in an injury-marred season that included an April rib fracture and season-ending knee surgery in September. He yielded 11 runs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA), but Merryweather was excellent in 2023, logging a 3.38 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate in 72 innings for the Cubs. He’s also out of minor league options, which surely gives him a leg up on others. (Four scoreless spring innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio so far isn’t hurting his cause, either.)

Others on the 40-man roster include righties Nate Pearson, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts and Gavin Hollowell. All have at least one minor league option remaining. However, the Cubs have at least one non-roster invitee who’s making a push for a spot: veteran righty Brad Keller.

Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote yesterday that Keller’s average fastball is up more than three miles per hour this spring, sitting 96.3 mph and topping out at 98 mph. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Craig Counsell both spoke highly of Keller’s stuff this spring, with the skipper noting to Lee that Keller has been “more than we expected” so far in camp. Keller’s four runs in seven innings of work don’t stand out, but teams are far more focused on raw stuff, velocity and command when looking at such a small sample. Keller has allowed only seven hits and a walk while punching out six hitters and inducing grounders at a 48% clip so far.

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that Keller’s velocity jump and smoother mechanics have not only made him a legitimate consideration to break camp but made it “likely” that the team will add Keller to the roster. The veteran righty has a looming opt-out opportunity in his deal, so the Cubs will either have to select his contract to the big league roster or risk him landing with another team. His minor league pact comes with a $1.5MM base salary, per Mooney, making Keller an affordable addition to the relief corps if the team sees fit.

Adding Keller to the mix, however, comes with complications. Right now, the Cubs have six relievers who cannot be optioned to the minors in the running for bullpen spots: Pressly, Brasier, Thielbar, Miller, Thompson and Merryweather. Hodge has a full slate of minor league options remaining, but coming off a 1.88 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 43 rookie innings, he’s not going anywhere. He’s locked into a seventh spot in the ’pen.

Effectively, unless the Cubs are willing to move on from Merryweather, they only have one bullpen spot available. Plugging Keller into that spot would render their bullpen largely static, barring injury. Keller has more than five years of MLB service (6.062, to be more specific). He can’t be optioned without his consent.

That level of bullpen inflexibility is tough for any team to manage. Early off-days in the season would help, but if the Cubs needed to call up a fresh arm at any point, they’d be left choosing between optioning Hodge or designating someone for assignment. It’s not an ideal setup.  (The Mets faced a similar situation with their bench when weighing whether to re-sign Jose Iglesias, which is largely why he ended up with the Padres.)

The situation would only grow murkier when righty Javier Assad is healed up from an oblique injury. Assad has been ruled out for Opening Day and is presumably IL-bound to begin the year. If he returns in April, however, he’d likely push righty Colin Rea from the fifth starter’s spot to a long relief role. Rea, like many of his teammates on the staff, can’t be optioned. The Cubs could technically option Assad, but he pitched 147 innings of 3.73 ERA ball out of the rotation last year; his strikeout, walk an home run rates all point to some regression, but Assad has still pitched well enough to this point in his career (3.40 ERA in 294 innings) that he can be considered a lock when healthy.

It’s always possible that further injuries sort the situation out organically. Injuries, particularly on the pitching side of things, are an inevitability for any team over the course of a six-week spring training and 162-game season. But with the bulk of the pitching staff healthy right now and minimal flexibility due to their lack of optionable arms, the Cubs seem like they’ll be forced into some decisions on those out-of-options arms sooner than later.

Hoyer: Cubs Prioritizing “2025 And Beyond” At Deadline

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This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not anticipate buying at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.

Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward to the future. “Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 – unless things change over the next week – we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Chicago’s baseball ops leader said (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we’re exceptionally well positioned.”

While Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity in how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke frankly about the team’s “poor position” with regards to this season. “We simply dug a hole with underperformance for two months. That doesn’t affect how I view the organization or how I view things going forward but it certainly affects 2024,” Hoyer said.

It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t term Chicago’s approach as buying or selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not common. The Cubs would need to outbid teams that are motivated to land those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.

Chicago’s farm system is regarded as one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of note, but the likelier outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an option so (there’s) no point in going through the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).

Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal contains a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge López are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. While he has pitched better lately after a dismal start to the season, there’d be minimal interest. The Cubs could try to pay down almost all of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five of which have been with his current team) earlier this season.

Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely to be limited interest in the veteran left-hander.

Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a fine but unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That’d be a difficult contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a broken finger.

If the Cubs wanted to more or less run things back in 2025, they’d be in for a very quiet deadline. Yet even if they’re not likely to move long-term core pieces, Chicago could entertain offers on role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also gotten interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.

Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs are certainly under no financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’re prepared to move on if another team views Morel as a regular. Morel is a good athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and throughout the outfield in previous seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have each given him very poor grades for his stint at the hot corner.

This also hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line that Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it belies some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has upped his walk rate by a couple points while dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has kept that from materializing into better results.

Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with an uptick in his average on balls in play, the lack of a defensive fit makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs could hope to turn third base over to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have much in the way of short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d probably rely on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the rest of the season.

The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm strain. The offseason signee has been shaky, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s up two runs this year thanks to his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9MM salary and has a matching option for next year. That’s currently a team option but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.

Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t likely to want Neris back at that price point. They’d presumably be happy to find a trade partner, but the potential for being saddled with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his vesting marker could make other teams wary. There’s less risk with regards to Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder rate across 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.

Whether the Cubs get compelling enough offers to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games back of the last playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four intervening teams to jump, the front office has decided they’re at best a long shot to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the upcoming week.

Cubs To Acquire Tyson Miller

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The Cubs are acquiring reliever Tyson Miller from the Mariners for minor league infielder Jake Slaughter, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Seattle had designated Miller for assignment last week.

Miller returns to the organization that selected him in the fourth round of the 2016 draft. The Cal Baptist product reached the majors for a very brief stint during the 2020 season. The Cubs lost him on waivers to the Rangers the following year. That kicked off a nomadic stretch of his career that has seen Miller suit up for five teams without reaching even 15 innings for any of them.

The right-hander played for three teams last year. He bounced via waivers between the Brewers, Mets and Dodgers. Miller combined for 15 1/3 innings of eight-run ball and cleared waivers in September. He hit minor league free agency and inked a non-roster deal with Seattle going into 2024. The M’s called him up two weeks into the regular season.

Miller had a productive month in the Pacific Northwest. He threw 11 2/3 frames over nine appearances, allowing four earned runs. Miller punched out 12 against one walk with a solid 12.6% swinging strike percentage. It was a little surprising that Seattle nevertheless took him off the roster, although he’d been in a low-leverage role in a solid bullpen.

The Cubs have a shakier relief corps than the Mariners do. Chicago’s bullpen entered play Monday ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.58 earned run average. Their 23.4% strikeout rate is fine, but they’ve issued walks at a huge 11% clip. Chicago also has five relievers on the injured list at present. Yency Almonte landed on the shelf over the weekend, while Adbert Alzolay just went down with a forearm strain this evening.

Miller is out of options, so he’ll step right into the major league bullpen. The Cubs need to create a 40-man roster spot to finalize his acquisition and will need to make an active roster move once he reports to the team.

In return for a middle reliever who had been squeezed off the depth chart, Seattle adds an upper minors infielder who is out to a strong start. Slaughter, 27, has a .297/.392/.486 slash line over 130 plate appearances for Chicago’s top affiliate in Iowa. He has connected on five homers, stolen 10 bases in 11 tries, and drawn walks at a strong 11.5% clip. His 24.6% strikeout rate is slightly higher than average but around three percentage points lower than last year’s 27.5% mark.

Slaughter was an 18th-round pick out of LSU back in 2018. He has never drawn much prospect fanfare and has gone unselected in the Rule 5 draft twice. His numbers this season are strong enough that he has a chance to reach the majors in a reserve capacity this year, though. He would qualify for minor league free agency at the start of next offseason if Seattle doesn’t add him to the 40-man roster before then.

Mariners Designate Tyson Miller For Assignment

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The Mariners announced that Bryan Woo has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Tyson Miller designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Miller, 28, signed a minor league deal with the M’s in the offseason and was selected to the big club early in April. He has since thrown 11 2/3 innings over nine appearances with a 3.09 earned run average. He has a 26.7% strikeout rate and 2.2% walk rate. He’s been helped a bit by a .207 batting average on balls in play but his 3.85 FIP and 2.98 SIERA still suggest he’s been pretty good.

That’s a small sample size but it’s still a bit surprising that he’s been bumped off the roster, especially when the Mariners could have optioned someone like Cody Bolton or Eduard Bazardo. For whatever reason, Miller has been bumped off instead. Since he’s out of options, he had to be removed from the 40-man entirely.

The M’s will now have a week to trade Miller or pass him through waivers. The fact that he’s out of options will tamp down interest somewhat, but his decent numbers will be appealing. His 5.91 ERA in his career isn’t especially impressive but that’s in just 42 2/3 innings scattered over a five-year period. Since the start of 2021, he has a 3.85 ERA in 198 2/3 Triple-A innings, striking out 27.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 9.7% rate.

Miller has a previous career outright and will therefore have the right to elect free agency if he were to pass through waivers unclaimed.

Mariners Announce Several Roster Moves

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4:15pm: Bolton is dealing with kidney stones, per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times.

3:10pm: The Mariners shook up their bullpen with a series of roster moves Monday. Right-handers Brett de Geus and Tyson Miller were selected to the 40-man roster from Triple-A Tacoma, with righty Ty Adcock being designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Right-handers Cody Bolton and Collin Snider were both placed on the 15-day injured list — the latter due to a knee contusion and the former with what the team labeled a “general medical issue.” The Mariners also reinstated first baseman Ty France from the paternity list and optioned infielder/outfielder Samad Taylor to Tacoma.

Both Miller and de Geus have big league experience, albeit fairly minimal. The 28-year-old Miller was a fourth-round pick by the Cubs back in 2016 and has pitched for five different teams over the past four years (Cubs, Rangers, Mets, Dodgers, Brewers). In 31 career innings, he’s been tagged for an ugly 6.97 ERA, though his Triple-A work is far better. Miller was roughed up for an ERA north of 7.00 in his first taste of Triple-A as a 23-year-old back in 2019. In parts of three seasons since that time he’s logged a 3.85 ERA in just under 200 innings. That includes 43 2/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball with the Triple-A clubs for the Dodgers and Mets last year, during which he punched out 28% of his opponents.

The 26-year-old de Geus pitched 50 MLB frames between the Mariners and D-backs back in 2021 after Texas plucked him from the Dodgers in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. He made 19 appearances as a Rangers and another 26 as a D-back, struggling mightily in both stops. Given that de Geus pitched in A-ball in 2019 then didn’t pitch with an affiliate in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, it’s not all that surprising that he was hammered by MLB hitters in his debut campaign. In those 50 frames, he yielded a 7.56 ERA.

Even to this point in his career, de Geus only has 14 Triple-A frames under his belt. He’s been hit hard in that tiny sample as well, but he pitched 35 1/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA in Double-A for the Royals last season. De Geus has plenty of experience working multiple innings as a reliever and has also been a starter in the past, so he can provide some length to the Seattle bullpen while he’s up.

Adcock, 27, made his big league debut with the Mariners in 2023. The former eighth-round pick tossed 15 2/3 innings with a 3.45 ERA and 19% strikeout rate out of Scott Servais’ bullpen and didn’t issue a walk or hit any of his 58 opponents with a pitch. Adcock was never going to sustain that level of command, but he still walked only five of the 75 hitters he faced between High-A and Double-A last year (6.66%). However, he’s already issued three free passes in 2024 despite facing just a dozen opponents. The Mariners will have a week to trade Adcock, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Mariners, Tyson Miller Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Mariners have signed reliever Tyson Miller to a minor league contract, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. It stands to reason he’ll get an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Miller, 28, has pitched in parts of three big league campaigns. While he only has 31 career innings, he has gotten to the highest level with five different teams. The righty pitched for three clubs in 2023 alone, logging time with the Brewers, Mets and Dodgers. He allowed eight runs over 15 1/3 major league innings between the trio.

A former fourth-round selection, Miller has allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine in the big leagues. While that’s clearly not ideal, he’s coming off a solid run in Triple-A. Miller worked to a 3.50 ERA through 43 2/3 innings at the top minor league level. He struck out nearly 28% of opponents against an average 8.3% walk percentage.

Miller has exhausted his option years. If he cracks the Seattle roster at any point, he’d need to hold his place on the major league club or be put back on waivers. Despite that, the Triple-A results make him a solid depth addition. The Mariners have one of the game’s best bullpens. They finished fourth in the majors in ERA (3.48) and second in strikeout percentage (26.1%) this year.

29 Players Elect Free Agency

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October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Dodgers Outright Tyson Miller

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The Dodgers have sent Tyson Miller outright to Triple-A Oklahoma City, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. This is the second outright of his career, which means he has the right to reject the assignment and become a free agent. It is unclear if he plans to do so.

Miller began the season in the Brewers organization, appearing in seven games for the big league club. He was designated for assignment in July and subsequently traded to the Dodgers. He pitched just a single game for the L.A., ultimately getting DFA’d again and claimed off waivers by the Mets. However, his time in New York was similarly short-lived; he made only one appearance at the MLB level before he was DFA’d for the third time this season.

The Dodgers claimed Miller back, less than a month after they had let him go. He made a second appearance for the Dodgers, punctuated by his lone appearance with the Mets, tossing two scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks. However, he was DFA’d yet again the following day. Miller has already been optioned the maximum number of times this season, so it was the only choice L.A. had to remove him from the active roster. If he does accept the outright assignment, he will still have the chance to elect free agency at the end of the season.

Dodgers Designate Tyson Miller For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that they have recalled right-hander Ryan Pepiot, with fellow righty Tyson Miller designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Miller is out of minor league options, so a DFA was the only way to remove him from the active roster. Los Angeles’ 40-man count drops to 39.

Miller just rejoined the Dodgers via a waiver claim over the weekend. It was his second stint with L.A., as he’d also spent a few weeks at Chavez Revine in the midsummer. The Dodgers initially acquired Miller from the Brewers in a July trade. They waived him a few weeks thereafter and lost him to the Mets. Los Angeles brought him back on a waiver claim out of New York a few days ago.

Between the two stints, Miller has pitched only twice as a Dodger — once apiece in each stay. He has logged 15 1/3 innings through 10 outings this season overall, allowing eight runs with a 10:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Miller has pitched in parts of three MLB campaigns with five different organizations and owns a 6.97 ERA in 31 frames.

The 28-year-old has also had mixed results at the Triple-A level, where he carries a 4.77 ERA in 230 1/3 innings. Miller has fanned over a quarter of opponents at the top minor league stop but has walked just over 10% of batters faced. Despite the inconsistency, he’s continued to find interest on the waiver wire in recent months.

He’ll land back on waivers in the next couple days. Miller has cleared once before, so he’d have the right to become a free agent if he’s outrighted again.

Dodgers Claim Tyson Miller, Move Tony Gonsolin To 60-Day IL

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The Dodgers announced that they have claimed right-hander Tyson Miller off waivers from the Mets.  To create roster space, Tony Gonsolin was moved to the 60-day injured list, officially ending Gonsolin’s season.

Gonsolin was placed on the 15-day IL on August 19 due to right forearm inflammation, and since manager Dave Roberts said at the time that Gonsolin probably wouldn’t pitch again in 2023, the shift to the 60-day IL isn’t a surprise by any means.  The exact nature of Gonsolin’s injury isn’t quite known, and Roberts today told the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett and other reporters that the right-hander had undergone an MRI.  Some type of surgical procedure is being considered, and if Gonsolin did get this surgery, it would impact when he might able to return to the mound in 2024.

The possibility of a longer-term injury is obviously an unfortunate setback for Gonsolin, who has already struggled through a difficult 2023 season that included a sprained ankle in Spring Training and some recurring elbow pain that led to his placement on the IL.  Gonsolin was an All-Star in 2022 but clearly wasn’t himself this year, finishing with a 4.98 ERA over 103 innings.

The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West despite a storm of pitching injuries this season, and the possibility of Gonsolin now missing at least some time next year creates another wrinkle in their 2024 plans.  Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw will be free agents, Lance Lynn could be a free agent if L.A. doesn’t exercise an $18MM club option on his services, and Dustin May will be out until midseason after undergoing flexor tendon surgery this past July.  That leaves Walker Buehler (who aims to be back from Tommy John surgery before this season is over) and a host of youngsters like Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and Michael Grove all in the mix for rotation jobs.  Los Angeles certainly isn’t going into a season with such an unproven set of pitchers, so adding some front-of-the-rotation experience will be a key part of the Dodgers’ winter business.

Miller is back with the Dodgers less than a month after he was claimed away by New York off waivers.  Los Angeles previously acquired Miller from the Brewers in July after Milwaukee designated the righty for assignment, so it has quite a whirlwind of organizational change for the 28-year-old in less than two months’ time.

Amidst all these moves, Miller has a 5.40 ERA over 13 1/3 combined innings with the Brewers, Dodgers, and Mets this season.  Now in his third MLB season, Miller previously appeared with the Cubs in 2020 and the Rangers in 2022, with his 2021 campaign split between the Cubs’ and Rangers’ Triple-A affiliates.  Miller has a 4.04 ERA over 594 2/3 career minor league innings, including a 4.11 ERA in 30 2/3 frames of Triple-A work this season.

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