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Tyler Glasnow

12 Possible Fits For A Tyler Glasnow Trade

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Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow is among this offseason’s top trade candidates. He’s set to make $25MM in his final season before free agency. That’d be the largest single-year salary in franchise history. The Rays committed to that number not long ago, signing the 6’8″ hurler to an extension in August 2022. Even with various subsequent injuries to their rotation, Tampa Bay could move Glasnow to bring in cheaper talent.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted this evening that a pair of rival executives believe the Rays will pull the trigger on a Glasnow deal this offseason. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal offered a similar sentiment in an appearance on Foul Territory (X link). Rosenthal suggested Glasnow could be the likeliest of the group of top starters who are frequently mentioned as trade candidates — also including Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber — to move.

If the Rays did pull the trigger on a deal this winter, it’d have to be to a club with legitimate playoff aspirations in 2024. There’s little reason for teams like the Nationals or Rockies to acquire a star pitcher with one year left on his deal. An acquiring team would need to be willing to accommodate a $25MM salary. It’s hard to envision Tampa Bay making a trade of this magnitude within division.

That narrows things down somewhat but still leaves various potential suitors. Let’s identify some fits (listed alphabetically). All salary projections are courtesy of Roster Resource.

  • Angels: The Angels arguably stretch the definition of “legitimate playoff aspirations,” especially if Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere. They have made clear they’re not going to rebuild in any case. Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Griffin Canning are solid rotation pieces. They’re not true #1 arms, though, something Glasnow would provide.
  • Astros: Houston will be without Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. into the middle of the season. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier make for a strong top three. Hunter Brown and J.P. France tailed off a bit as their rookie seasons wound down. Glasnow fits on paper, although it’s unclear whether the Astros would take on his salary. GM Dana Brown has downplayed the financial flexibility at their disposal.
  • Braves: Atlanta made a run at Aaron Nola before his seven-year contract to return to Philadelphia. The Braves subsequently added Reynaldo López on a three-year pact and indicated he could return to the rotation. That doesn’t preclude them from exploring clearer upgrades to join Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton in the middle to upper part of the staff. The farm system has thinned but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos hasn’t shied away from aggressive strikes on the trade market to support an elite core.
  • Cardinals: St. Louis has sought three starting pitchers this offseason. They’ve added two veteran innings eaters on one-year deals, bringing in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson on consecutive days. That raises the floor but still leaves them in clear need of a top-of-the-rotation arm. St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged the team has yet to dig deeply into trade possibilities (link via Katie Woo of the Athletic). That’ll change now that they’ve added some stability without a ton of upside on the open market.
  • Cubs: Marcus Stroman declined his player option for 2024. That leaves the Cubs with a front three of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon. There’s clearly room for another high-end starter. Chicago isn’t far off this past season’s Opening Day payroll but projects around $25MM below their franchise high mark. They’re about $50MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold.
  • Diamondbacks: Taking on a $25MM player isn’t typical operating procedure for the Diamondbacks. Yet it’s something they could consider this winter on the heels of a World Series run. Arizona’s $103MM projected payroll is around $13MM south of this past season’s mark. It’s nearly $30MM below their franchise high. Adding another starter to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt is a clear priority.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are going to add a couple starting pitchers. Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías hit free agency. Kershaw’s return timeline is uncertain after shoulder surgery. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May will miss part or all of next season. Walker Buehler is back but coming off a second Tommy John surgery. Behind him are a few second-year hurlers (Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan) and swingman Ryan Yarbrough. Any of the top free agent or trade candidates on the rotation front make sense.
  • Giants: San Francisco’s projected payroll sits at $148MM, about $40MM shy of this year’s mark. Logan Webb is an ace. The rest of the rotation is in question. Alex Cobb is coming off hip surgery. Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling had injuries and/or underperformance in 2023. Top prospect Kyle Harrison is still unproven. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has been reluctant to make free agent splashes for starting pitching. A Glasnow trade would add an impact arm without the kind of long-term rotation commitment to which this front office has been averse.
  • Mets: The Mets are likely to bring in multiple starters. Kodai Senga and José Quintana are the only locks for the Opening Day rotation. It’s debatable whether they’re positioned to part with noteworthy young talent to add a rental with the team coming off a 75-87 season. New York has made clear they’re not punting the 2024 season entirely, though. Adding a high-end starter is one step of many required to put themselves back in the conversation with the Braves and Phillies in the NL East.
  • Padres: San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish after seeing each of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez hit free agency. The Padres are reportedly trimming payroll, which could rule them out on a $25MM arm, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never been afraid to move things around to accommodate impact talent. The Snell trade with Tampa Bay has been one of the best moves of his tenure.
  • Rangers: The defending champions could lose Jordan Montgomery to free agency. Jacob deGrom won’t be ready until the season’s second half. Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney is still a good starting five. They could nevertheless take a swing for Glasnow, building a potential playoff rotation consisting of Glasnow, deGrom, Scherzer and Eovaldi as they try to repeat.
  • Reds: Cincinnati’s situation is similar to Arizona’s. The Reds aren’t big spenders but could be in position for a lofty one-year salary for a #1 starter. They’re projected at $52MM for next season, $30MM below this year’s Opening Day mark. The young position player group put the Reds on the fringe of postseason contention. Adding a starter to lead a staff that also includes Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott is the next step.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Jansen, A’s

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The Rays figure to spend much of their offseason grappling with how to improve their roster despite a $126MM projected payroll (per RosterResource) that would be a franchise record. Given the considerable expected increase in Tampa’s payroll, plenty of speculation has swirled surrounding the future of ace right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is in the final year of his contract with the Rays and is due $25MM in 2024. Moving Glasnow would trim considerable payroll for the Rays while also allowing them to secure cheaper talent in the return package, a method the club has frequently utilized in recent years when parting ways with players like Blake Snell, Chris Archer and, Evan Longoria.

While it’s certainly feasible the Rays could decide to take that route with Glasnow, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicates that such a deal is unlikely to come together any time soon, noting that the club’s talks regarding a Glasnow deal are seen as “preliminary.” Morosi goes on to suggest that a Glasnow trade is more likely to occur after the top tier of free agent starters, which includes Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, have found new homes. Waiting until the free agent market plays itself out more is a sensible choice for the Rays; after all, plenty of clubs are rumored to be looking for front-of-the-rotation impact this offseason, and teams that miss out on the aforementioned group of pitchers may be more motivated to get a deal for Glasnow done later in the offseason once the big names of the free agent market are off the table.

More from around the American League…

  • Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is poised to hit free agency following the 2024 season, but it appears that the 28-year-old and the team aren’t planning on getting together on an extension any time soon. In an interview with Scott Mitchell of SportsCentre, Jansen said that though the sides did talk about a potential extension, “both parties agreed to carry on and see what happens throughout this year.” Toronto, of course, has fellow backstop Alejandro Kirk under team control through the end of the 2026 season. Given that reality, the fact that an extension for Jansen appears to not be a top priority for the Blue Jays is hardly a surprise. That’s especially true considering the club’s reported interest in top free agent bats such as Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.
  • The Athletics have now received unanimous approval from MLB owners for their plan to relocate to Las Vegas. In the wake of the relocation vote, team president Dave Kaval interviewed with The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Kaval expressed the team’s excitement for the coming move. Though he noted that Las Vegas leaves the club with “uncertainty” regarding revenue from local media as the smallest TV market in MLB, Kaval noted that the club expects their new market to “punch a little above its weight” in other areas to make up for that. Kaval also suggested that the club has no interest in leaving the “Athletics” name behind as it moves to the desert. That’s a particularly relevant piece of information given Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao has previously indicated that leaving the name in Oakland could be among the city’s demands should the A’s wish to stay in Oakland after their lease expires following the 2024 campaign but prior to the club’s Las Vegas ballpark’s opening, which is expected to occur in time for the start of the 2028 season. Kaval went on to clarify that the club’s current TV deal only applies while the club is playing in the Bay Area, which could provide the club with an additional incentive to get a deal done either with the city of Oakland or to share Oracle Park with the Giants for the 2025-27 seasons.

MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The NL Central appears to be the most intriguing division from an offseason perspective. The 2023 division winner could be selling. The Reds have a positive youth movement that could be augmented with veterans and turn into a real threat. The Cubs and Cardinals have pieces and could do an offseason push to rapidly improve their teams. The Pirates always seem to be a year or two away. What does each team in the NL Central need to do take the Brewers spot on top of the division? Do you see a potential arms race in the middle of the country instead of the coasts? (25:10)
  • Do the Angels have a chance for Cody Bellinger or one of the top pitchers? (29:50)
  • Could you explain why any team would trade something of value for Jonathan India? He’s been one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball both of the last two years (according to both DRS and OAA), plus he’s been a below average hitter by wRC+ both years? He’s also had injury concerns both years. Maybe I’m wrong, but wouldn’t just about any contender aim higher than him as a starting second baseman? (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

Rays Rumors: Glasnow, Ramirez, Margot

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The Rays head into the 2024 season with a projected franchise-record payroll north of $125MM — a stark increase from previous highwater marks in the $80MM range. President of baseball operations Erik Neander said a month ago that the team is capable of and open to trotting out a new record mark, although there’s a stark difference between broadcasting the ability to increase payroll to some unspecified extent and projecting for about a 50% increase over their previous record.

Unsurprisingly, that’s thrust several notable Rays players into the rumor mill. Chief among them is ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s set to earn $25MM in 2024 before reaching free agency. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times have written in the past 24 hours on the potential of a Glasnow trade at some point this offseason. As Rosenthal points out, the Rays figure to extend a qualifying offer to Glasnow following the ’24 season if he’s not traded, and the potentially recouped draft pick will factor into what already figures to be a lofty asking price.

The Rays will be able to hold out for a larger return, knowing they’d have another opportunity to shop Glasnow at the trade deadline if their season goes south. Even if they hold onto Glasnow for the whole year, the draft pick they pick up would likely come at the end of the first round of the ’25 draft. They’d need a trade package to outweigh not only a full season of Glasnow but also a draft pick around No. 30. Similarly, any team acquiring Glasnow in the offseason would be acquiring the right to make that QO themselves. The compensatory pick another club would receive for qualifying Glasnow would be dependent on that team’s revenue-sharing and luxury-tax statuses, but it’ll clearly factor into valuing a Glasnow package for both the Rays and potential trade partners.

At the time Glasnow signed his extension in 2022, it was genuinely surprising to see him ink a deal that bought out just one free-agent year — even as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Glasnow spoke candidly about how Tampa Bay was where he wanted to be. Any player signing a long-term deal with the Rays likely does so knowing that an eventual trade is a possibility, however.

Glasnow’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery was hampered by an oblique injury, although he still posted 120 good innings: 3.53 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 51.2% ground-ball rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.91) and SIERA (3.08) felt he pitched quite a bit better than his earned run average would otherwise indicate. With 120 innings under his belt and more than two years elapsed since his surgery, it stands to reason that there won’t be many (if any) innings restrictions on Glasnow in 2024.

There’s no indication a Glasnow trade is close or even necessarily likely. Interest in him will persist so long as he remains with the Rays, as their payroll situation is obvious and demand for high-end rotation help is always strong. For the time being, however, a far more pressing trade candidate could be right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez, whom Topkin suggests is a candidate to change hands with this week’s deadlines to set 40-man rosters prior  to the Rule 5 Draft (Tuesday) and to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players (Friday).

The 29-year-old Ramirez doesn’t bring much defensive value to the table, having operated primarily as a designated hitter this past season. He’s logged time at first base and in both outfield corners in the past, though he hasn’t graded out all that well. However, Ramirez also slashed a robust .313/.353/.460 this season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a reasonable $4.4MM salary in 2024.

The Rays control Ramirez for another two seasons, but they’re already a heavily right-handed team and might want to open some more flexibility at the designated hitter spot. There’s also the question of whether Ramirez can be expected to repeat this past season’s career-best production. The bulk of his damage came against lefties, whom he tattooed at a ridiculous .387/.411/.555 clip — but that was with the benefit of a sky-high .447 average on balls in play. That’ll be tough to repeat, though Ramirez’s knack for putting the ball in play (career 17.8% strikeout rate) has helped him maintain a lifetime .289 average in the big leagues. He doesn’t supplement that with many walks or all that much power, but he’s a clearly a talented hitter who could pique the interest of any club looking for a righty bat to plug into its first base/corner outfield/DH mix.

Along those same lines, Topkin lists Manuel Margot as a possible trade candidate. The fleet-footed outfielder has previously graded as a plus defender across all three spots, though last year’s defensive grades took a dip after he missed most of the 2022 season due to patellar tendon strain in his right knee. The righty-swinging Margot turned in a .264/.310/.376 slash in 2023 and is slated to earn $10MM in 2024 — the final season of his contract.

Margot could draw interest from clubs looking for a right-handed bat to play across the outfield — particularly if an interested party believes that his defensive ratings will tick back up the further removed he is from that significant knee injury. To be clear, Margot didn’t necessarily grade as a poor outfielder, but last year’s -3 Defensive Runs Saved and +3 Outs Above Average were well shy of the respective marks of 13 and 16 that he posted in his last full, healthy season (2021).

Margot’s production at the plate last year aligned almost perfectly with his broader marks in four seasons with the Rays, for whom he’s been a .264/.317/.375 hitter. In particular, Margot has been a thorn in the side of left-handers, posting a career .281/.341/.420 line when holding the platoon advantage. The Rays have several other outfield options (e.g. Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Ramirez, Greg Jones) and a knack for finding undervalued bats on the trade market, which could make them all the more willing to move Margot for future pieces while simultaneously paring back payroll in a meaningful way.

Rays Notes: Coaching, Glasnow, Catcher

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The Rays coaching staff is set to see some changes this offseason, with three departures having been reported previously. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the club’s head of mental performance Justin Su’a is set to shift to a reduced role next season due to family considerations. Su’a has been with the club since 2018, and it’s unclear how the Rays plan on covering his current responsibilities as he steps back into a smaller role.

Topkin also notes that the Rays are making progress in filling the first base coach vacancy created by the departure of Chris Prieto, with interviews scheduled to begin this week. Triple-A manager Michael Johns, Double-A manager Morgan Ensberg, and coaching/player development assistant director Alejandro Freire are among the internal candidates under consideration for the job, though Topkin adds the team figures to interview external candidates as well. Both Ensberg and Freire played in the majors prior to their coaching careers; Ensberg spent eight seasons in the big leagues as an infielder for the Astros, Yankees, and Padres while Freire had a 25-game stint at first base with the Orioles in 2005.

Beyond the coaching changes, Topkin discusses the club’s upcoming offseason decisions. While the Rays have publicly indicated they could be open to an increased payroll next season, RosterResource projects the team for a payroll of $130MM next season, a $51MM increase over the club’s 2023 payroll. Even if the club were willing to substantially ramp up payroll, the club’s near 40% jump in payroll before any external additions leaves the club likely to explore cost-saving moves this offseason. The club’s most obvious route to trimming payroll would be dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is set to make $25MM next year in his final season before free agency.

That being said, a Glasnow deal would come with plenty of pitfalls, most obvious of which is the concerning state the rotation would be left in for Opening Day 2024. Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale would both figure to be locked into rotation spots entering Spring Training, but things get murkier from there. Shane Baz is expected to return from Tommy John surgery next season, while Zack Littell and Taj Bradley drew starts for the club to mixed results in 2023. Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs could both rejoin the team late in the season after rehabbing surgeries that ended their 2023 campaigns early. With just two clearly proven, healthy starters besides Glasnow entering 2023, it seems that the Rays would need to find a way to add an arm to the rotation if they did part ways with the righty this offseason.

For Topkin’s part, he suggests that the Rays would be better served making a decision on Glasnow as early in the offseason as possible. Topkin notes that any trade of Glasnow (or lack there of) would likely exert significant influence over the club’s overall offseason plan, and the sooner the club makes a decision on Glasnow, the sooner they can begin looking for a free agent starter to replace him in the rotation, or, alternatively, looking for other ways to trim the club’s payroll. Outfielders Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez (the latter of whom MLBTR recently profiled as a potential trade candidate) both were mentioned as pieces the Rays could potentially part with this offseason, as well as catcher Christian Bethancourt.

Bethancourt, 32, was Tampa’s primary catcher in 2023, though he struggled at the plate with a .225/.254/.381 slash line in 104 games. Late in the season, Bethancourt ceded the everyday job to 26-year-old Rene Pinto, who performed solid as the club’s regular backstop for the final two months of the season. Topkin makes clear that the Rays appear poised to go in a different direction behind the plate, both noting Bethancourt as a potential candidate to depart the team this offseason and highlighting catching help as a key need for the club this offseason as they look for a player to pair with Pinto behind the plate.

One possible solution Topkin floats is a reunion with Alex Jackson, who played 14 games for the club’s Triple-A affiliate this season before going down with injury. Prior to the 2023 campaign, Jackson spent the past four seasons as a depth option for the Braves, Marlins, and Brewers, getting occasional exposure to the big leagues but only getting an extended look in 2021. He’s struggled with the bat at the big league level to this point with a career slash line of .141/.243/.227 in 185 trips to the plate, though at just 27-years-0ld with a career .851 OPS at the Triple-A level it’s at least conceivable he could unlock another level with more consistent major league opportunities. The upcoming free agent class behind the plate features the likes of Gary Sanchez and Victor Caratini as potential regular options.

MLBTR Podcast: Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Rangers are in the World Series for the first time since 2011 (0:55)
  • Looking back on the journey of Adolis García (5:00)
  • What’s next for the Astros after dropping the ALCS? (7:40)
  • Bob Melvin reportedly moving from the Padres to the Giants (10:15)
  • Is Tyler Glasnow a trade candidate or not? (14:45)
  • The Offseason Outlook of the Dodgers (21:45)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
  • The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
  • Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​

AL Notes: Twins, Glasnow, Cora

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While the Twins are facing an uncertain payroll situation headed into the offseason, Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune indicates that won’t stop the club from picking up options on second baseman Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, noting both options are “expected” to be picked up around the league. That being said, Nightengale also notes that both players figure to be in the center of trade discussions this winter if Minnesota looks to utilize their position player depth to acquire more pitching.

That’s a familiar situation to Kepler in particular, who found his name in the rumor mill both last offseason and again at the trade deadline. After posting below-average offensive numbers in both 2021 and 2022, Kepler bounced back in a big way this season with a .260/.332/.484 slash line in 130 games, adding a plus bat to his reputation as a strong defender in the outfield. A free agent after the 2024 campaign if his option is picked up, Kepler would be an attractive one-year addition for outfield-needy teams that the Twins could afford to part with due to the presence of young outfielders like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.

Polanco, on the other hand, has team options for both 2024 and 2025 that make him a more significant player to part with. The switch-hitting infielder has been a model of consistency when on the field the past few years, with a wRC+ between 118 and 124 in every full season since 2019. That being said, he’s been plagued by injuries the past two seasons, appearing in just 80 contests for the Twins in 2023 and 104 in 2022.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a poll of MLBTR readers regarding whether or not the club should deal Polanco, with 56% of respondents voting that he should be dealt. Effective as Polanco has been, that sentiment in understandable given the club’s cluttered infield mix that features Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien and up-and-coming prospects like Brooks Lee and Austin Martin. Nightengale adds that the Twins could use Polanco in a super utility, multi-positional role next season if he’s retained for 2024. While Polanco profiles best as a second baseman, he played 15 games at third base this year and spent time at shortstop early in his career as well.

More from around the American League…

  • Ever since right-hander Tyler Glasnow signed an extension with the Rays that guaranteed him a $25MM payday in 2024, speculation has percolated throughout the baseball world that Tampa would look to move him before the final year of that contract. With RosterResource projecting the Rays for a franchise-record payroll of $130MM next year, moving Glasnow would be a viable strategy for the club if they look to get closer to their 2022 level of $79MM. That said, it’s worth noting that the Rays have indicated they’re open to increasing payroll next year and the club’s biggest area of need is the starting rotation. That need would get bigger without Glasnow, who pitched to a 3.53 ERA and 2.91 FIP across 21 starts this season. For his part, Glasnow wants to stay with the Rays in 2024 and beyond. As relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Glasnow spoke glowingly of the organization and its culture while noting the $150MM offer the club made to Freddie Freeman during the 2021-22 offseason as evidence that the club could retain him beyond 2024, if they so chose.
  • While Red Sox manager Alex Cora took himself out of the running for the club’s opening atop the baseball operations department early in the club’s search for their next GM, at the time it was believed that Cora would play a significant role in the hiring process as Boston looked to replace ousted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. This morning, however, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam notes that Cora’s role in the process may not be as substantial as previously believed. McAdam reports that a source has indicated that Cora has had very little involvement in the process to this point, though McAdam does note that the Red Sox’s intentions of involving Cora were focused on ensuring a good working relationship between the manager and his new boss. Given those goals, it’s certainly possible Cora could have greater impact on the process once the team has narrowed the field of candidates down further.

Rays Notes: Glasnow, Margot, Ohtani, Caminero

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Every Rays offseason inevitably leads to trade rumors about their higher-salaried players, whether it’s players getting increasingly expensive through their arbitration years or players entering more expensive years of their current contracts.  The same should be true this winter, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot “seem likely to be in trade discussions” as the Rays try both manage their budget and maintain a competitive roster.

It isn’t a shock to see either player potentially shopped, especially since Tampa reportedly offered Margot to other teams as recently as the trade deadline.  Margot also drew some trade buzz during the 2021-22 offseason since 2022 was his final year of salary arbitration, but the Rays not only avoided an arb hearing by agreeing to a salary with Margot for 2022, but they also inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension with a $12MM club option for 2025.

Glasnow’s own extension with the Rays only seemed to create more trade speculation, rather than security about his future in St. Petersburg.  The right-hander signed his two-year, $30.35MM extension in August 2022, just over a year after the right-hander underwent a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost the entire 2022 season.  The deal broke down as a $5.35MM salary in 2023 (essentially what Glasnow would’ve earned anyway via arbitration salary) and then a whopping $25MM for 2024.

Essentially since the moment that deal was announced, many have expected that the Rays would look to trade Glasnow before that $25MM bill came due.  That dollar figure might not scare off many teams as a one-year splurge, given how Glasnow returned to mostly good health and delivered a strong season.  An oblique strain cost Glasnow the first two months of the 2023 campaign, but he posted a 3.53 ERA, 51.2% grounder rate, and an elite 33.4% strikeout rate over 120 innings.

Of course, the Rays themselves might view $25MM as a good investment for a top-of-the-rotation arm, especially given the other injury problems in Tampa Bay’s rotation.  Glasnow and Zach Eflin project as the Rays’ top two pitchers, with Taj Bradley penciled into the rotation for at least the start of the season, Shane Baz returning from Tommy John surgery, Drew Rasmussen (elbow brace surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (TJ surgery) both expected back at midseason, and Shane McClanahan very likely missing the year altogether due to yet another TJ procedure.  Given how all these injuries hampered the Rays this year, Tampa might feel comfortable in just keeping Glasnow and then getting draft compensation back next winter via the qualifying offer, or perhaps even a midseason trade if the Rays are out of the race.

If Glasnow is retained and the Rays looked to trim payroll elsewhere, moving Margot seems like a natural place to start, as he is owed $12MM in 2024 ($10MM salary, $2MM buyout of his 2025 option).  Margot generally been a slightly below-average hitter during his eight MLB seasons, with his .264/.310/.376 slash line over 336 plate appearances in 2023 basically matching his career numbers.  Margot’s speed and defense have helped his value beyond the middling offense, though the public metrics indicated a dropoff in his center field glovework in 2023, even if his right field numbers were still solid.  Margot’s playing time has also been limited by some injuries over the last two years, as well as the Rays’ natural penchant for outfield platoons.

Perhaps especially if Tampa Bay feels Margot has lost a step or two defensively, he might be an expendable piece of a crowded Rays outfield.  Josh Lowe and Jose Siri could take over the center field platoon, and prospects like Kameron Misner or Chandler Simpson might also be nearing their big league debuts.  Margot’s trade market might be somewhat limited by his 2023 performance, though with a thin free agent market for position players, any outfield help might get some extra interest this particular winter.

Turning from possible Rays trades to some moves that didn’t happen, Tampa Bay was known to have interest in Shohei Ohtani this past summer, even though it seemed like the Angels had little to no interest in actually dealing the two-way star.  That didn’t stop several teams from floating offers, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Tampa offered Junior Caminero and two other top-10 prospects in exchange for the final two months of Ohtani’s 2023 season.

It would’ve been a big price for a rental player, yet not out of line for a player of Ohtani’s stature and unique all-around ability.  Of course, no trade happened, and the Rays probably don’t have many regrets considering how Ohtani’s partial UCL tear prematurely ended his pitching season in August, and an oblique strain then ended his season altogether a couple of weeks later.

Cash: “Highly Unlikely” Shane McClanahan Returns This Season

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The Rays placed left-hander Shane McClanahan on the 15-day injured list last week due to left forearm tightness. It seems he may be out well beyond those 15 days as manager Kevin Cash tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that surgery is possible and it is “highly unlikely” the southpaw will pitch again this year, though he will see another specialist before that’s confirmed. Cash adds that’s “everything is on the table,” including Tommy John surgery, flexor tendon surgery or the removal of loose bodies, per Topkin.

It’s yet another brutal blow to the Tampa rotation, which has received many this year. The club is already without Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs, each of whom has undergone season-ending surgery already. Josh Fleming is also on the 60-day injured list alongside those two, having been out since late May.

But the loss of McClanahan would be the most devastating of all, given that he’s been one of the best pitchers in the game in recent years. Dating back to his 2021 debut, he’s tossed 404 2/3 innings, allowing just 3.02 earned runs per nine innings. He’s struck out 28% of batters faced, walked just 7.1% and kept the ball on the ground at a 46.8% clip. He finished seventh in American League Rookie of the Year voting two years ago and then was sixth in Cy Young voting last year.

The mounting pitching injuries have undoubtedly played a role in the club’s slide in the standings. They started out the season with a 13-game winning streak and were in first place in the AL East for much of the season, but have since faded to second. Their 68-46 record has them three games behind the Orioles and four games ahead of the Blue Jays. Now they will seemingly have to navigate the final weeks of the season without their best pitcher.

The current rotation consists of Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale and Zack Littell, which is a talented group but one with concerns. Glasnow has frequently dealt with injuries in his career, having never reached 112 innings in a major league season. He was scratched from his Sunday start due to back spasms and now will be shut down for two days after receiving an injection, per Topkin. Eflin recently had a knee scare that resulted in him avoiding the injured list, but he’s had knee issues his entire career and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see something flare up again. Civale also has a spotty health history, which has prevented him from ever hitting 125 innings in a big league campaign. Littell has primarily been a reliever and has only recently begun stretching out to a starter’s workload.

With the trade deadline now in the rear-view mirror, the Rays will have limited options to supplement this group. Fleming is on a rehab assignment and could come back shortly, though he has a career ERA of 4.86 around multiple IL stints of his own. Prospect Taj Bradley could be recalled from the minors, though his first 16 major league starts resulted in a 5.67 ERA. The Rays could also try to acquire players from outside the organization, though those will naturally be flawed options in one way or another.

The concerns with McClanahan will seemingly extend beyond the current playoff race, given the serious options that are on the table. If Tommy John surgery is ultimately required, that would likely wipe out his entire 2024 season as well, given that recovery usually takes at least 14 months after that procedure. That would be his second such surgery, as he underwent TJS back in 2015, prior to being drafted. The time off after flexor tendon surgery tends to be a little lighter but can still run close to a year.

McClanahan is currently 26 years old and will finish this season with his service time count at two years and 158 days. He’ll be a lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, the first of four arb seasons before he’s slated for free agency after 2027. It’s possible that he ends up missing the entirety of his age-27 season, though he and the Rays will obviously be hoping that’s not the case.

AL East Notes: Rizzo, Story, Glasnow

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Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo went on the injured list last week with post-concussion syndrome following a collision with Padres start Fernando Tatis Jr. at first base back in May. Given Rizzo went from a clear All Star candidate (146 wRC+) to the worst hitter in the majors (43 wRC+) following the collision, the revelation that Rizzo has been dealing with concussion symptoms has sparked confusion regarding him continuing to play over the past two months. To that end, The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner interviewed Rizzo regarding the situation, and in an article today discussed Rizzo’s slump over the past few months, his injury, how it was handled, and if he wishes anything had been done differently.

Throughout the interview, Rizzo emphasized that he didn’t believe anything was wrong despite other people suggesting the collision may have impacted him: “You know yourself as a hitter and you know what your strike zone is,” Rizzo told Kirschner, “When it all disappeared, you’re like what is going on? You don’t think it’s because of a collision. My agent said something about the collision. My parents said something… Every time someone said something like that, I would get mad at them because I don’t need excuses in this game… everyone struggles in baseball.”

With Rizzo on the shelf without a timetable for return, the Yankees will look to salvage a season in which they sit 3.5 games out of a wild card spot despite a solid 58-53 record without their everyday first baseman and most reliable left-handed bat. Jake Bauers, who has hit well (122 wRC+) in a part time role with New York this season, has taken over at first base since Rizzo hit the IL.

More from around the AL East…

  • Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story will remain in the minor leagues until his rehab assignment reaches the maximum of 20 days later this week, per MassLive’s Christopher Smith. Smith adds that manager Alex Cora says Story will be reevaluated after playing on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the shortstop has struggled to bounce back following back-to-back games played. Story is in year two of his six-year, $140MM contract with Boston and has yet to play in the majors this season as he works his way back from elbow surgery. With Story on the shelf, the Red Sox are currently relying on Yu Chang and deadline acquisition Luis Urias up the middle.
  • Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow was scratched from his start against the Tigers today due to back spasms, as noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Right-hander Erasmo Ramirez took Glasnow’s place as the starter for this afternoon’s game. Topkin also relayed that manager Kevin Cash doesn’t believe the issue will require a trip to the injured list, with Glasnow potentially being able to return to the mound as soon as later this week against the Cardinals, though Glasnow won’t see a doctor regarding the issue until tomorrow. With Taj Bradley back in the minor leagues and Shane McClanahan having gone on the injured list last week, an IL stint for Glasnow would leave the Rays with only Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale as traditional starters in their rotation.
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