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Red Sox Showing Early Interest In Pitchers; Not Close On Devers Extension

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As the off-season gets underway, much of attention around the Red Sox has been focused on the free agency Xander Bogaerts and the ongoing contract talks with third baseman Rafael Devers, but it Boston is showing early interest in adding pitching this winter. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox are “digging around the pitching market”, and have been linked to Andrew Heaney and Seth Lugo among others. Jon Morosi of MLB Network has more on their interest in pitching, stating they’ve shown interest – alongside the Angels – in starter Tyler Anderson.

Boston does have a reasonable amount of pitching signed for next season, but a most of it comes with major question marks. Chris Sale is owed $27.5MM but has made just eleven starts in the past three years. James Paxton opted into his $4MM player option for next season, but he didn’t pitch at all in 2022. Brayan Bello showed promise in eleven starts in 2022 and could have a bright future, but those were the first eleven starts of his major league career and he’s still raw. The Red Sox are intending to use Garrett Whitlock as a starter in 2023, but he’s pitched better out of the bullpen and made just nine starts this season. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the only dependable option in Boston’s rotation at this stage, so it’s no surprise they’re looking to add pitching.

Anderson has enjoyed something of a late breakout with the Dodgers this past season. He generally checked in as a solid, back of the rotation starter across his first six seasons in the majors with the Rockies, Giants, Pirates and Mariners. With the Dodgers however, he tossed 178 2/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball, easily the best numbers of his career and first since 2016 where his ERA had finished under four. A lot of that was due to restricting the long ball, as Anderson’s HR/9 more than halved from 2021 (1.46 down to 0.71). Anderson did receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, so there’s every chance he accepts that one-year, $19.65MM deal and returns to LA.

Heaney, on the other hand, was not tendered a qualifying offer but also enjoyed his own breakout campaign. He pitched to a 3.10 ERA through 72 2/3 innings as a result of leaning more on his slider and less on his changeup. Those numbers came with a significant increase in strikeout rate, as he posted a 35.5% rate, well above his previous high of 28.9% in 2019. He did miss around three months across two separate IL stints with left shoulder problems, so there are some durability concerns.

Lugo has enjoyed six solid seasons pitching out of the Mets bullpen. He threw 65 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, maintaining a strong walk rate of 6.6% and a solid strikeout rate of 25.4%. While it’s not lights out stuff for a reliever, Lugo does have plenty of value as a durable middle reliever. While there’s a case to be made for any or all of these three pitchers finding their way to Boston this winter, it’s still early and the Red Sox will be casting a wide net in their pursuit of pitching.

On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox appear to be some way off agreeing to a contract extension with Devers. The star third baseman will be a free agent after the 2023 season, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that while there is some optimism towards a deal, the two sides remain far apart. Heyman reports that the Red Sox offered Devers a contract slightly above the ten-year, $212MM deal that Austin Riley received from the Braves, but Devers is seeking more than $300MM in an extension.

Devers had another brilliant season in 2022, mashing 27 home runs and compiling a .295/.358/.521 line in 141 games. His wRC+ mark of 140 was the best of his career, but his previous marks of 133, 108 and 132 show he’s regularly been a superb hitter. Defensively, he improved on 2021 but still graded out with negative numbers per Outs Above Average (-2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6). Given he’s already amassed 18.1 fWAR and will be hitting free agency entering his age-27 season, it’s no surprise Devers is seeking big money. The left-hander would be one of the top free agents available on the open market should the Red Sox fail to lock him in before then.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Dodgers Considering Qualifying Offer For Tyler Anderson

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According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, there’s a “good chance” the Dodgers will extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to left-hander Tyler Anderson.

Teams have until 4pm Central on Thursday to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players, giving the Dodgers about 24 hours left to make a final decision. If they indeed extend the offer to Anderson, he will have 10 days to talk to other teams and decide whether to accept it or turn it down.

The fact that Anderson is even a candidate for the offer speaks to what an incredible breakout season he had in 2022. Coming into the year, he had a career 4.62 ERA and fairly average peripherals with a 20.5 strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 39.1% ground ball rate. The Dodgers gave him a one-year, $8MM deal for his age-32 season.

That turned out to be a tremendous bargain for the club, as Anderson’s work in Dodger blue far surpassed any of his previous seasons. He appeared in 30 games and tossed 178 2/3 innings with an incredible 2.57 ERA, barely half of his previous average. His rate stats were still fairly similar to his previous ones, though he did drop his walk rate to a stingy 4.8%.

Where he seems to have made strides was inducing poor contact from opposing hitters. He was in the 98th percentile in terms of hard hit rate, going from 33% in 2021 to 28.5% in 2022. His average exit velocity was also 98th percentile while his chase rate was 95th and his barrel rate was 86th. At least part of this could be credited to his changeup, which he threw 31.6% percent of the time compared to just 24.6% of the time in 2021.

Regardless of how he did it, the improvements are enough that the Dodgers are considering a salary more than double what they paid a year ago. If Anderson were to turn down the offer and sign elsewhere, they would be entitled to draft pick compensation. Since the Dodgers paid the competitive balance tax in 2022, their pick would be pushed back until after the fourth round. A signing team would also be subject to the forfeit of at least one pick, with other penalties on the table as well, depending on whether the team was a CBT payer or revenue sharing recipient.

Whether Anderson would accept the offer or not is an interesting question.  On the one hand, this is likely his best chance at earning a hefty multi-year paycheck, since he’s coming off a season that could well be the best of his career. On the other hand, he never had a salary above $2.5MM prior to getting the $8MM from the Dodgers a year ago. If he suddenly had a $19.65MM offer on the table, it would likely be hard to turn it down. Based on his excellent campaign, plenty of teams would be interested in signing him, though having to surrender at least one draft pick would temper their offers to some degree.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Bellinger, Turner, Anderson

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Despite winning a league-leading 111 games, the Dodgers will find themselves watching the World Series rather than playing in it, having lost yesterday’s game to the Padres, and bowing out of the NLDS. With the 2022 season now behind them, the Dodgers’ front office will be tasked with configuring the team’s 2023 roster.

Nine-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw returned to the Dodgers this past offseason on a one-year, $17MM contract with incentives, and, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in September, the southpaw is leaning towards playing in the 2023 season.

Following yesterday’s game, Kershaw announced a similar intent, telling reporters that “as of right now, I’d say I’ll play again,” per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. However, the lefty added that “we’ll see what happens. Going home and being around and being a full-time dad changes your perspective on things,” per Ardaya.

Now a veteran of 15 Major League seasons, Kershaw has been a Dodger his entire career. However, the lefty was heavily courted by his hometown Rangers during the 2021 off-season, a team that will once again look to add pitching in the off-season. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reported that the Rangers were “willing to give Kershaw more years, more money” in addition to the chance to “play home games 20 minutes from his house in Dallas.”

The Dodgers have more control over what happens with Cody Bellinger. With one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, the Dodgers will be forced to make a difficult decision regarding the 2019 NL MVP.

Bellinger and the Dodgers avoided arbitration this past offseason, agreeing to a one-year, $17MM contract before the lockout. However, the lefty has yet to perform at a similar level to his 2019 magical season. This past season Bellinger slashed .210/.265/.389 with 19 homers in 504 at-bats, improving upon his 2021 season, in which he posted a .165/.240/.302 line, but nowhere close to his .305/.406/.629 2019 season.

When asked about Bellinger, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts replied that “it’s difficult” and that he has given Bellinger “a lot of leash because he’s earned it,” per Ardaya. Importantly, as predicted by Matt Swartz’s model, Bellinger is expected to earn $18.1MM in arbitration this winter. It will be hard for any team, regardless of payroll size, to justify paying that sum to a player who has hit a collective .203/.272/.376 over the past three seasons.

If the Dodgers opt to cut Bellinger, there will likely be plenty of suitors for the 27-year-old, who slashed .278/.369/.559 throughout his first three Major League seasons.

14-year veteran Justin Turner finds himself in a similar situation to Bellinger, with the Dodgers holding a $16MM option, with a $2MM buyout, on the third baseman. Turner had a slow start to his season, slashing .256/.331/.403 over the first half before finding his grove and hitting .319/.386/.503 over the second half. However, the veteran, who will be 38-years-old next season, ended the season flat, going 4 for 24 over his last seven games and 2 for 13 against the Padres.

With the Dodgers opening the 2022 season with an all-time-high $310.6MM payroll and paying nearly $47M in luxury tax, the front office may be forced to shed Turner’s contract in an attempt to re-sign other free agents.

Switching to Dodgers’ free agents, a pair of All-Stars in Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson join the previously mentioned Clayton Kershaw.

Trea Turner is coming off his second All-Star appearance in as many years, slashing .298/.343/.466. It is a notch down from his 2021 season, where the righty posted a collective .328/.375/.536 between the Dodgers and Nationals but it should not affect his stock as a premier shortstop amongst a robust shortstop class, including Dansby Swanson and, potentially, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts, pending opt-outs.

Turner recently suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger, but had negative x-rays and felt healthy enough to play in the critical Game 4 of the NLDS. He will likely be healthy for Spring Training.

Lefty Tyler Anderson broke out during the 2022 season after spending his prior six seasons with four different Major League Teams. The southpaw pitched to a sparkling 2.57 ERA in 178 2/3 innings while excelling at limiting hard hits (98th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and 98th percentile in HardHit%) and limiting walks (4.8%).

With Walker Buehler recently undergoing his second Tommy John surgery and Dustin May recently returning from his Tommy John surgery, in addition to Kershaw potentially leaving, the Dodgers will be on the hunt for quality starters this offseason.

NL West Notes: Anderson, Gonsolin, May, Almonte, Bumgarner, Gonzalez

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts spoke with reporters today, and shed some light on the Dodgers’ pitching plans and health situations heading into the postseason.  Tyler Anderson was confirmed as part of the playoff rotation, as since Tony Gonsolin is still recovering from a forearm strain, Roberts said Gonsolin will throw no more than four innings in a game, if that.  Dustin May (who just went went on the injured list yesterday due to back tightness) is slated for a bullpen role if he is healthy enough to participate.

Yency Almonte might be activated from the 10-day injured list during the Dodgers’ series against the Padres that begins on Tuesday, Roberts said.  Almonte hasn’t pitched since August 3 due to elbow tightness, but the right-hander had a rehab outing scheduled for today with Triple-A Oklahoma City.  In his first season in Los Angeles, Almonte has become an underrated piece of the bullpen mix, posting an excellent 1.15 ERA over 31 1/3 innings.

Some more from around the NL West…

  • Madison Bumgarner has thrown his last pitch of the 2022 season, as while he isn’t injured, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter links) and other reporters that the D’Backs will use younger starters in Bumgarner’s usual rotation spot.  While Bumgarner avoided injury for the first time in his three Arizona seasons, there wasn’t much to love about the left-hander’s performance, either from a bottom-line (4.88 ERA in 158 2/3 innings) or Statcast perspective — Bumgarner did pitch generally well in the first half of the season before fading after the All-Star break.  The Diamondbacks owe Bumgarner $37MM over the 2023-24 seasons, the two final years of the five-year, $85MM free agent deal that has thus far been a bust for the club.
  • The Giants placed outfielder Luis Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list yesterday, as a lower-back strain has ended Gonzalez’s season.  This is the second time back problems have sent Gonzalez to the IL this season, as Giants manager Gabe Kapler told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters that Gonzalez had “been dealing with it ever since he even got off the IL, and I just think he was a more explosive, dynamic player going into that injury….He really has earned the right to be out there, he’s battled less than optimal physical condition to give us everything he’s had.”  In both his first season in San Francisco and in his first season with real Major League playing time, Gonzalez hit a respectable .254/.323/.360 over 350 plate appearances.  As Kapler noted, the back injury certainly impacted Gonzalez’s performance — he had an .808 OPS in 180 PA prior to his first IL stint, and just a .552 OPS in 170 PA after returning to action in early July.

The Dodgers’ Latest Free Agent Breakout

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Each offseason, the Dodgers are mentioned as at least a speculative favorite for seemingly every top-tier free agent. They’re willing to pursue elite players even in the absence of a true positional need, and they annually sport one of the league’s highest payrolls. This winter should be no exception, with headlines eventually linking the Dodgers to the best free agent shortstops, including their own impending free agent Trea Turner, and top-of-the-market starting pitching.

Los Angeles doesn’t just pursue established superstars in the Freddie Freeman mold, though. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, general manager Brandon Gomes and the rest of the front office also leverage their payroll flexibility in another way. While it’s not as visible or exciting, the Dodgers roll the dice on plenty of mid-tier free agents. They signed nine players to major league deals last offseason alone, seven of whom inked a one-year guarantee. It was a blend of high-upside players who carried injury or performance risks with more stable, lower-variance veterans to round out the roster.

Tyler Anderson seemed to fall into the latter bucket. He’s been a durable back-of-the-rotation arm for much of his career. Anderson lost chunks of the 2017 and ’19 seasons with left knee issues, but he started a full slate of 32 games in 2018 and hasn’t gone on the injured list at any point in the past three years. That kind of reliability appealed to a Dodgers team that opened the season with Dustin May on the IL, Clayton Kershaw coming off a season-ending arm issue and Andrew Heaney (another lower-tier free agent pickup) seeking a rebound after a dismal 2021 campaign.

Reliable as he was in taking the ball every fifth day, Anderson didn’t look like a potential impact arm. He’d only once posted an ERA below 4.00 in a season, and that was in his 2016 rookie campaign. The southpaw had the tough task of pitching his home games at Coors Field for his first four years, but he also had mixed results in a 2021 season split between two more pitcher-friendly settings. Anderson played the year with the Pirates and Mariners, combining for a 4.53 ERA over 167 innings. A nine-run clunker during his third-to-last start of the season inflated that number, but he carried an ERA hovering around 4.00 for much of the season.

Featuring a fastball that averages under 91 MPH, Anderson looked the part of a back-end arm who throws strikes and keeps teams in a ballgame for five innings. That netted him an $8MM guarantee from L.A. in Spring Training. That would’ve been a generally worthwhile investment if Anderson had merely replicated his 2021 numbers over another full season. Instead, he’s posted easily the best showing of his career to date.

Through 26 appearances, the former first-round pick has worked 154 2/3 innings of 2.73 ERA ball. He’s neither striking batters out nor generating ground-balls at a particularly robust clip, with his respective 19% and 39.7% rates each checking in below the league averages. Yet Anderson has improved upon the aspect of his game in which he’d already been most effective: getting opponents to offer at pitcher’s pitches.

Despite not having eye-popping raw stuff, Anderson has always been adept at inducing chases on pitches outside the strike zone. Opponents went after 37.2% of offerings he threw outside the zone last season, well above the 31.5% league average for starters. He’s pushed that already impressive rate further, getting hitters to chase a personal-high 38.9% of pitches this year.

That ability to get hitters to swing at bad pitches drives two key aspects of Anderson’s success. It’s helped him avoid free passes, with this season’s 4.9% walk rate among the best in the game. Anderson has always been adept at pounding the strike zone, and his combination of plenty of pitches within the zone and ability to get hitters to swing at would-be balls keeps him frequently in advantageous counts. It’s also worked to avoid especially damaging contact, with opponents having a hard time squaring him up. Anderson ranks among the league’s top starters in suppressing hard contact, thus far allowing him to avoid home run issues that have plagued him in the past.

The Dodgers have already received more than they could’ve expected from a reasonably low-cost acquisition. He could have a hard time cracking a playoff rotation that’ll certainly feature Julio Urías, Kershaw, May and (if healthy) Tony Gonsolin, but he’s likely to be on the mound for some high-leverage innings this October in some capacity. Anderson also looks to have set himself up for a better payday on his return trip to the open market, although how robust the interest will be depends on how much teams buy into his ability to sustain this year’s elite results.

His lack of premium velocity or swing-and-miss stuff gives him a thin margin for error. Even modest regression in his ability to induce bad swing decisions could lead to results more akin to a back-of-the-rotation arm than this year’s All-Star form. After all, it’s not as if Anderson’s success has come completely out of the blue. He’d already been above-average at getting batters to chase and make weak contact in seasons where his overall output was roughly league average.

The 32-year-old has made tweaks to his repertoire this year that probably helped push his game forward. He’s taken some speed off his changeup, which is getting more downward depth. Batters are swinging through it more often as a result, and given the alterations to his changeup, it’s probably not a coincidence he’s faring better than ever against right-handed batters. That’s a promising improvement, but like the other gains he’s made this season, it’s a rather subtle one.

Put all the changes together, and Anderson looks as if he’s better now than he has been. Is he a true talent 2.73 ERA pitcher who’ll be an annual All-Star? Probably not. His future level likely falls somewhere in between this year’s outstanding numbers and the pedestrian 4.49 mark he posted from 2020-21. Yet even if Anderson allows around three and a half to four earned runs per nine innings moving forward, he’s a valuable pitcher — particularly if he can continue to stay healthy and take the ball every fifth day.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted last month, the Dodgers will have to at least consider the possibility of tagging Anderson with a qualifying offer this offseason. It still seems they’d opt against making an offer that, in recent seasons, has sat in the $18-19MM range, but that it’s even a worthwhile consideration is a testament to his strong year. At the very least, Anderson looks to have pitched his way into the first multi-year contract of his career when he returns to free agency.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

List Of All-Star Roster Replacements

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7:25PM: Freddie Freeman is also joining the NL roster, as the league announced that the Dodgers first baseman is replacing Starling Marte.

4:04PM: The league announced that the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas has now been added to the NL roster, taking the spot of Brewers righty Corbin Burnes.

July 17, 1:15PM: The Mariners have announced that Ty France will be joining the festivities as well. MLB later announced the addition as well, noting that he is replacing Mike Trout. With Trout not taking part, Byron Buxton will move into the starting center fielder role for the American League.

10:05AM: MLB has announced three more additions, with one of them being the previously reported addition of Williams. The other two are closers: Liam Hendriks of the White Sox and Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays. Those three will replace Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Max Fried.

July 16, 11:01PM: Brewers reliever Devin Williams has also been named to the NL roster, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).

7:11:PM: Four replacements were announced to the All-Star rosters, taking the spots of four other players who won’t be part of the Midsummer Classic.  Dodgers left-hander Tyler Anderson, Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth, and Braves third baseman Austin Riley will be joining the National League’s team, while Blue Jays second baseman Santiago Espinal has been named to the American League’s roster.

Espinal is replacing Jose Altuve, who was hit in the knee by a pitch on Thursday.  Altuve sat out Friday’s action and is back in the Astros lineup tonight as the DH, but even though he is well enough to play, Altuve and the Astros will use the All-Star break to get the second baseman fully back to 100 percent.  Altuve had been voted in as the AL’s starter at second baseman, but now the Guardians’ Andres Gimenez take over as the starter for Tuesday’s game.

Jazz Chisholm was voted as the NL’s starting second baseman, but the Marlins standout will also be missing the game due to his lower back injury.  Chisholm has been on the 10-day injured list since June 28, but he has been working out at the Marlins’ spring camp, and taking part in baseball activities.  There isn’t a set timeline for Chisholm’s return, but the team is hopeful Chisholm can be activated for the start of the second half.  With Chisholm out, Jeff McNeil becomes the NL’s new starter at the keystone, while Cronenworth will take over the backup infield role.

Giants lefty Carlos Rodon is also battling injury, opening the door for Anderson to receive the first All-Star nod of his seven-year career.  Rodon has both a blister and a split nail on the middle finger of his throwing hand, and told  Henry Schulman and other reporters that he is skipping the ASG in order to give the injury time to properly heal.  There isn’t yet any indication that Rodon might require a visit to the injured list, and since Rodon last pitched on Thursday, he’ll receive at least a full week off between starts.

Riley was perhaps the most prominent omission from the original All-Star roster, given how the Braves slugger has posted some huge numbers over the first half.  However, as it often the case with “snubs,” the situation sorted itself out once other players started to drop out.  Riley will be taking the place of Nolan Arenado, as the Cardinals third baseman will use the break to rest a lingering back problem.

Dodgers Sign Tyler Anderson

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The Dodgers continue to add to their roster, announcing this evening they’ve agreed to terms with Tyler Anderson on a one-year deal. It’s reportedly an $8MM guarantee that also contains an additional $500K in incentives if he exceeds 100 innings next season.

Anderson was one of the better remaining options in a free agent rotation market that has been mostly picked through. The southpaw is coming off a decent season split between the Pirates and Mariners, in which he combined for a 4.53 ERA over 167 innings. Anderson only averaged a bit more than five innings per start, but he took the ball 31 times and was generally successful with regards to keeping his team in games. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but five of his outings.

Signed by Pittsburgh to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason, he settled in as perhaps the most reliable member of the Bucs’ starting staff. Over 18 outings, Anderson worked 103 1/3 frames with a 4.35 ERA. He was an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent on a rebuilding team. After a reported agreement with the Phillies fell through due to concerns about the medical evaluation of one of the prospects involved, the Pirates pivoted and flipped him to Seattle for prospects Carter Bins and Joaquin Tejada at the deadline. Anderson spent the final couple months with the M’s, performing alright until a nine-run blow-up against the Angels tanked his overall numbers.

Anderson isn’t the most overpowering arm on the market. His fastball averaged 90.6 MPH last season, and he struck out a below-average 19.1% of opposing hitters. Yet he was adept at getting opponents to chase pitches outside the strike zone, and his mediocre strikeout percentage belied a solid 11.5% swinging strike rate. That’s partially because batters swung so often against him — among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Michael Wacha had a higher opponents’ swing rate — but Anderson nevertheless generated more whiffs per swing inside the strike zone than the average starter.

In addition to getting opponents to frequently chase, Anderson threw pitches in the zone at a higher-than-average rate. Those contributed to keep his walks down, as he doled out free passes at just a 5.4% clip. He’s been a low-walk arm throughout his career, and he’s posted an ERA between 4.37 and 4.55 in each of his last three seasons (excluding a 2019 campaign in which he was limited to five starts by left knee issues). A fly-ball pitcher, Anderson has been prone to the home run ball throughout his career. He also generates his fair share of pop-ups, though, and he’s typically adept at avoiding hard contact.

Anderson has started all but four of his 117 MLB appearances. He’ll presumably join the back-of-the-rotation mix in Los Angeles, joining offseason signee Andrew Heaney, David Price and Tony Gonsolin among the options for Dave Roberts. Walker Buehler, Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw will be the top three options from the outset of the season. Trevor Bauer remains on the roster, but his paid administrative leave was recently extended through April 16.

The $8MM guarantee only adds to an ever-mounting payroll in Los Angeles. The Dodgers now have an estimated $282MM in actual payroll, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their luxury tax ledger is up to $284MM, just $6MM shy of the highest tier of penalization.

Because they exceeded the CBT last season, the Dodgers will be subject to escalating fees as a second-time payor. They’ll be taxed at a 30% rate for every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM, a 42% clip on overages between $250MM and $270MM, a 75% rate on overages between $270MM and $290MM and a 90% tax on all expenditures north of $290MM.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Dodgers and Anderson had agreed to a deal. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported it was a one-year pact. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the $8MM guarantee, while Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first with the incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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