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MLBTR Poll: Angels’ Sixth Starter

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The Angels have run six-man rotations in recent seasons. They’re expected to do the same this year, although manager Phil Nevin has already indicated the club will be a little less rigid than in prior years to try to get more innings for their top arms.

The Halos had an off day on the second day of the season, mitigating the need for a sixth starter the first time through. They had an extra day to get a second start from Shohei Ohtani yesterday before settling on a sixth starter.

After today’s scheduled off day, the Angels play on six consecutive days. Sam Blum of the Athletic tweets the Angels are likely to turn to their sixth starter for their April 12 matchup with the Nationals. It remains unclear whom Nevin will give the first crack to assume that role behind Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson and José Suarez.

The most likely candidates appear to be left-hander Tucker Davidson and righty Griffin Canning. Davidson, acquired in last summer’s Raisel Iglesias trade with Atlanta, is out of minor league option years. He has to stick on the MLB roster in some capacity if the Halos don’t want to chance losing him. They could deploy him out of the bullpen, where he made his only appearance of the season on April 1. Davidson tossed four innings of mop-up work to finish off a blowout win in Oakland. That was only his second relief appearance at the MLB level, as he’s started 16 of 18 big league games.

Davidson threw 52 innings between Atlanta and Anaheim last season. He was tagged for a 6.75 ERA, walking 14.4% of opponents while striking out 13.7% of batters faced. That kind of production obviously isn’t sufficient but the Halos have kept him on the 40-man roster, clearly believing he’s capable of taking a step forward. Davidson had been solid over 15 Triple-A starts last year, with an above-average 27.8% strikeout rate and solid 7% walk percentage more encouraging than his 4.59 ERA there lets on.

Canning is currently on the 15-day injured list. He opened the season on the shelf with a groin strain, but the issue seems exceedingly minor. The UCLA product made a rehab start for Low-A Inland Empire this evening, working five innings and 92 pitches. Assuming he responds well in the next few days, it seems he’s on track for a quick reinstatement. Canning is first eligible to return on April 12, so his timetable could align with the Angels’ first need for a sixth starter.

If he got the nod, it’d be his first big league outing since July 2021. Canning has lost the past year and a half to back injuries. One of the organization’s more promising pitching prospects a few seasons ago, he looked like a possible mid-rotation arm when he worked to a 3.99 ERA over 11 starts during the shortened season. Canning surrendered a 5.60 ERA through his first 14 outings in 2021 before the back issues that cost him more than 18 months. He has 209 1/3 MLB innings under his belt, almost all of them as a starter. Unlike Davidson, Canning can still be optioned for another season.

While Davidson and Canning seem the top candidates for sixth starter work, they’re not the only options. Righty Jaime Barria indicated in Spring Training he had his sights set on the job. Barria had worked almost exclusively in long relief in 2022, throwing 79 1/3 innings across 35 appearances. He posted a 2.61 ERA out of the bullpen but without huge strikeout or ground-ball numbers.

Barria had primarily been a starter before last season, working to a 4.49 ERA built on solid control. Like Davidson, Barria has made one appearance out of the bullpen this season. He tallied 3 2/3 frames of low-leverage work in a blowout loss to Seattle on Tuesday. He’s also out of options and has to stick in the majors in some capacity.

Chase Silseth is also on the 40-man roster and started seven games as a rookie last year. The right-hander showed intriguing velocity but was hit hard in his initial MLB look. He started the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake. Kenny Rosenberg and Jhonathan Diaz also got brief rotation showings last season, though neither occupies a spot on the 40-man at this point. It’s unlikely any of that group is in consideration for MLB starts this early in the year.

Who should get the first crack for the Angels when they turn to a sixth starter?

(poll link for app users)

 

Angels Looking To Increase Workload For Top Starters

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Angels manager Phil Nevin spoke with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sam Blum) about the club’s pitching plans this afternoon. The Halos have run with a six-man rotation for the past few seasons, and while they could adopt that as a loose framework in 2023, Nevin indicated the team wants to put an emphasis on allowing the pitchers at the top of the rotation- including two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani – to get more action on the mound. Rather than adhere to a rigid six-man staff every turn through, Nevin suggested the club would be flexible in deploying their nominal sixth starter as more of a swing option.

Headed into the 2022 season, the club had few surefire starting pitchers beyond Ohtani, as Patrick Sandoval had started just fourteen games in 2021 while the big pitching acquisition for the Halos that offseason was Noah Syndergaard, who was returning to the mound after pitching just two innings since the end of the 2019 season.

Fortunately, the 2022 season saw multiple impressive performances from Angels starters: in addition to Ohtani improving as a pitcher on his 2021 MVP campaign and placing fourth in Cy Young award voting, Sandoval impressed with a 2.91 ERA and 3.09 FIP in a career-high 148 2/3 innings while Reid Detmers showed flashes of the talent that made him the 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft. Jose Suarez proved to be a capable back-of-the-rotation starter over twenty starts. The Halos also improved their rotation externally with the addition of Tyler Anderson, a durable starter who broke out with the crosstown Dodgers in 2023 to the tune of a 2.57 ERA and 3.31 FIP across 178 2/3 innings.

With Sandoval having proved himself, Anderson under contract, and both Detmers and Suarez looking ready for a bigger challenge, it makes sense for the Angels to try and lean more on their top five in the rotation, especially if it means getting Ohtani on the mound more often. After years of carefully managing Ohtani’s workload in an attempt to keep him healthy, the Angels have allowed him to play more and more, with less firm restrictions in recent years. Considering a more traditional rotation appears to be the next logical step in that process.

Each of those five starting options appears likely to be a substantial improvement over the starts Anaheim’s internal options for a sixth starter can provide. Following his trade to the Angels last summer as part of the deal that sent closer Raisel Iglesias to the Braves, lefty Tucker Davidson struggled mightily in eight starts (36 2/3 innings): a ghastly 6.87 ERA and nearly matching 6.30 FIP was good for an ERA+ of just 60, or 40% worse than the league average pitcher.

Blum notes that right-hander Griffin Canning is fully healthy and partook in a normal offseason after missing the entire 2022 season with a back injury, so he could certainly factor into the sixth starter mix as well. That said, despite roughly league average results in his major league career to this point (an ERA+ of 96 in 209 1/3 innings spanning from 2019 to 2021), Canning has never reached 100 innings pitched in the majors and is coming off a long layoff, so it would be no surprise if the Angels planned on managing his workload carefully during his age-27 season.

Overall, given the relative strength of their starting five, the emphasis on letting Ohtani play without restriction in recent years, and the dearth of quality, reliable options for the sixth starter slot, Nevin’s plan to consider a more traditional rotation in 2023 makes sense. A reliable sixth starter would likely have to come externally, and those options are slim following Michael Wacha’s signing with the Padres earlier today.

Braves To Acquire Raisel Iglesias

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The Braves pulled off a massive buzzer-beater just before the deadline, acquiring closer Raisel Iglesias from the Angels in exchange for pitching prospect Tucker Davidson and righty Jesse Chavez, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Braves will pay the remainder of Iglesias’ contract — a four-year, $58MM deal that covers the 2022-25 seasons.

It’s a last-second surprise to bring one the game’s most established late-inning relievers to an already deep Atlanta bullpen. Iglesias has tailed off since an outstanding start to the season but still possesses a reasonable 4.04 ERA with an excellent 32.9% strikeout rate and a 6.2% walk rate so far this season. Dating back to 2017 — Iglesias’ first as a full-time closer (then with the Reds) — he’s pitched to a combined 2.99 ERA while striking out 32% of his opponents against just a 7.1% walk rate.

Iglesias’ 95.3 mph average fastball is down about a mile per hour over the 2021 season, and his 14.9% swinging-strike rate is the second-lowest mark he’s posted as a full-time reliever. Those are both at least minor red flags, particularly when paired with his recent slump, but for most of the season Iglesias has looked the part of a quality leverage reliever, even if his numbers have dipped a bit from last year’s career-best performance.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has a history of acquiring high-priced closers.  He recently shipped out the marginalized Will Smith, the top reliever from the 2019-20 free agent class, for starter Jake Odorizzi.  In March of this year, he signed Kenley Jansen to a one-year, $16MM deal.  The Iglesias trade is reminiscent of a Braves deadline deal from three years ago, when Anthopoulos acquired Mark Melancon from the Giants and was surprisingly willing to take on all of his remaining contract.  In Iglesias, the Braves take on over $51MM through 2025.  Anthopoulos explained today, “We had a lot of things in the works. Iglesias is someone we had our eye on and it came together really late, like with two minutes to go.”

The Braves now boast a high-priced tandem to close out games in Jansen and Iglesias, as well as A.J. Minter, Collin McHugh, and Tyler Matzek.  Rookie Dylan Lee is making an impact as well, succeeding in high leverage spots of late.

For the Angels, the Iglesias deal serves as an escape hatch from an expensive contract.  Ultimately the Angels will only pay out about 11% of the contract they entered into eight months ago.  The Angels are in an odd place, as they’ll fail to reach the playoffs for the eighth consecutive year.  They shed over $58MM in contractual commitments for Iglesias and Noah Syndergaard today, yet they owe over $75MM to Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon next year and only control MVP candidate Shohei Ohtani for two more seasons.

Angels owner Arte Moreno allowed GM Perry Minasian to listen to offers for Ohtani in recent weeks, but decided not to pull the trigger.  Ohtani’s future, and the direction of the Angels in general, will be a question looming over their offseason.

Aside from bailing on a large financial commitment, the Halos add Davidson, a 26-year-old southpaw with Major League experience.  Prior to the season, Baseball America considered Davidson a 45-grade prospect, a potential back-end starter with perhaps three average pitches.  Currently working in his third and longest stint at Triple-A, Davidson has a 4.59 ERA owing to a high home run per flyball rate, but he’s got a strong 20.9 K-BB%.

Chavez, soon to turn 39, returns to the Angels after spending the 2017 season with the team.  The Angels are one of nine teams for which the veteran reliever has pitched in his venerable 15-year career.

Braves Select Bryce Elder, Designate Chadwick Tromp For Assignment

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The Braves have selected the contract of right-handed pitching prospect Bryce Elder in advance of tonight’s game, per a club announcement. Elder will start for the Braves and make his Major League debut. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, catcher Chadwick Tromp was designated for assignment. Atlanta also optioned lefty Tucker Davidson  and catcher William Contreras to Triple-A Gwinnett.

Elder, 22, somewhat incredibly becomes the second Braves draftee from the shortened, five-round 2020 amateur draft to reach the Majors. He and teammate Spencer Strider have both had meteoric rises through the minors and now represent two of the just five players from the 2020 draft already in the Majors. Elder (fifth round) and Strider (fourth) are the only non-first-rounders from that draft already in the Majors.

Looking at last year’s numbers, it’s perhaps not a shock that Elder was such a quick riser. He opened the 2021 season with 45 innings of 2.60 ERA ball against older competition in Class-A Advanced before tossing 56 frames of 3.21 ERA ball upon promotion to the Double-A level. Elder was then bumped to Triple-A Gwinnett, where he logged a 2.21 ERA in 36 2/3 frames despite being one of the youngest pitchers in the league.

Elder kept his strikeout rate above 27% the entire time and also posted ground-ball rates of at least 53.6% at each level, although command was more of a concern. Elder walked 57 of the 559 batters he faced (10.2%) and was particularly spotty in that regard against more advanced hitters at the Triple-A level (13.6%).

Baseball America ranks Elder sixth among Braves farmhands, noting that while the system has more powerful arms, Elder is the prototypical “pitchability” starter who’s a good bet to hold a spot in a rotation due to a five-pitch mix headlined by a sinker, plus slider and above-average changeup. Improving on his command will be key to further development for Elder, but he’ll have the opportunity to do so at the MLB level given the lack of proven starters for the Braves at the moment. Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson are all secure in their rotation spots, but Kyle Wright, Huascar Ynoa and Tucker Davidson have not yet solidified themself as long-term options. Mike Soroka, meanwhile, is on the shelf until this summer as he rehabs an Achilles injury.

As for the 27-year-old Tromp, he’ll lose his roster spot after four productive games in Gwinnett, where he’s gone 5-for-14 with a home run and a double. Tromp spent the bulk of the past two seasons in the Giants organization, batting .215/.220/.418 in a tiny sample of 82 Major League plate appearances. Atlanta claimed him off waivers from San Francisco last September. Tromp didn’t have a productive 2021 season in Triple-A, where he’s a career .254/.314/.412 hitter in parts of five seasons.

The Braves will have a week to trade Tromp, place him on outright waivers or release him. Teams are always on the lookout for catching depth, so there’s always a chance that a 27-year-old catcher with a pair of minor league options remaining will find a new home on the waiver wire.

Braves Notes: Rotation, Jackson, Freeman

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During last year’s World Series run, the Braves found themselves mixing and matching at the back of the rotation behind Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson. Atlanta hasn’t done much to solidify that group this winter, leaving themselves to again count on a handful of less-proven arms at the back end.

Manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) over the weekend that righties Kyle Wright and Huascar Ynoa look like the favorites for the fourth and fifth spots. Ynoa always seemed to have a leg up after posting a 4.05 ERA/3.62 SIERA in 18 appearances last season. Wright, on the other hand, made just two regular season starts in the majors. The 26-year-0ld had a nice showing at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he worked 137 frames of 3.02 ERA ball. A former top five pick and highly-regarded prospect, Wright hasn’t yet had a ton of MLB success, but his minor league production and the quality of his arsenal still offer reason for Atlanta brass to believe in him as a long-term option.

The Braves are scheduled to play every day from their April 7 opener through April 20. With that heavy workload to start the year, Toscano writes the club could lean on a six-man starting staff early on. If that bears out, rookie Spencer Strider — who climbed four minor league levels last season to reach the majors in September — could assume the final spot, Toscano writes, with lefties Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller also in that mix.

All those pitchers outside the Braves top three starters have minor league option years remaining, so any of that group could be sent back to Gwinnett throughout the season. They could also spill over into a multi-inning role out of the bullpen. Atlanta has one of the league’s strongest relief units on paper, but a key member has yet to pitch this spring.

Luke Jackson has been dealing with some forearm tightness, the team told reporters (including David O’Brien of the Athletic). The 30-year-old has been throwing on the side, so the Braves clearly aren’t concerned he’s facing a significant absence, but it’s not known whether he’ll have time to get into regular season game shape by next week. Jackson has been in the Atlanta bullpen for the past five years, but he had a particularly successful showing in 2021, pitching to a 1.98 ERA/3.75 SIERA in 63 2/3 frames.

While the Braves rotation looks much the same as it did last season, their position player shakeup was one of the stories of the offseason. Atlanta acquired Matt Olson and let Freddie Freeman walk in free agency. General manager Alex Anthopoulos and the front office were no doubt aware that decision would be a divisive one among the fanbase, and Freeman himself suggested in the immediate aftermath he was taken aback by the Olson trade. At his introductory press conference with the Dodgers, Freeman suggested Braves brass wasn’t as communicative as he’d expected they’d be throughout his stint on the open market. He also seemed to dismiss Anthopoulos’ assertion the Olson trade was the most difficult move of his executive career.

Chatting with the Journal-Constitution’s Gabriel Burns over the weekend, Freeman walked back those comments and took a brighter tone. The five-time All-Star said he chatted with the Braves baseball ops head last week and apologized for the comments he’d made at his introductory presser. “It helped to hear his side of things,” Freeman told Burns. “I won’t divulge what we talked about. But you can imagine what we talked about in three hours. It was good for us to now be good again. Now, when we see each other, we can just hug. I asked him to come to LA (for the series in April). I don’t think he was going to come to the LA series when they came out. I said, ‘Please, I want to see you and give you a hug because we did so many good things together.’”

Regardless of whether the fences are mended, the Braves and Dodgers figure to have plenty of memorable clashes over the coming seasons. The pair met in last year’s NL Championship Series, and they again look to be two of the top teams in the Senior Circuit. FanGraphs’ projections indeed forecast Los Angeles and Atlanta as the NL’s top two clubs heading into the year.

Framber Valdez, Tucker Davidson To Start Game 5 Of World Series

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The Astros will turn to Framber Valdez to stave off elimination in tonight’s fifth game of the World Series, while the Braves will kick off a bullpen game with another rookie pitcher.  The Braves announced this afternoon that left-hander Tucker Davidson will get the start (or, more accurately, serve as the opener) in what will be Davidson’s first career postseason appearance, and only his sixth career games at the Major League level.  Davidson was added to the Braves’ World Series roster as an injury replacement after Charlie Morton suffered a fractured fibula during Game 1.

Davidson made one start for Atlanta in 2020 and then posted a 3.60 ERA over four starts and 20 innings this season, with his most recent MLB outing coming back on June 15 due to a forearm injury.  In fact, Davidson has only pitched one game total since that June 15 start, tossing three innings for Triple-A Gwinnett on the final day of the minor league season (October 3).

Though Davidson is one of the better pitching prospects in Atlanta’s farm system, obviously it’s anyone’s guess as to what he’ll be able to deliver on the mound, even in what might amount to just an inning of work.  That said, given how the rest of the Braves bullpen has stifled Houston’s lineup throughout the World Series, Davidson’s task is just to avoid disaster and then turn things over to his veteran teammates.

The Braves followed this same script in Game 4, as rookie Dylan Lee worked as the opener and pitched to four batters, recording one out and allowing a run on a hit and two walks.  Kyle Wright then entered the game to bail Lee out, and Wright proceeded to toss 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball.  A scoreless inning each from Chris Martin, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith later, and Atlanta sealed a 3-2 victory and a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series.

Astros hitters have combined for a meager .206/.291/.298 slash line over the four games against the Braves, with only Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker showing any consistency at the plate.  Starting the southpaw Davidson in Game 5 could be a preventative measure on Atlanta’s part against Houston moving the left-handed hitting Tucker up in the batting order, though the Braves have plenty of other left-handed options on their roster.

The lack of production from the usually-reliable lineup is the biggest issue facing the Astros, as their own pitchers have done a solid job of limiting Atlanta’s offense over the last three games, with only one victory to show for it.  In Game 1, however, the Braves hit Valdez hard for five runs over two innings, setting up a 6-2 Atlanta win in the Series opener.

It has been a roller-coaster of a playoffs for Valdez, who has been very shaky outside of his eight-inning/one-run gem against the Red Sox in Game 5 of the ALCS.  In Valdez’s other three starts this postseason, he has been torched for 11 runs over nine innings of work.  With the season on the line for the Astros, manager Dusty Baker may have a relatively quick hook for Valdez at the first sign of trouble, as Houston will have every available arm at the ready to try and get the Series to a sixth game.

Tucker Davidson Replaces Charlie Morton On Braves’ World Series Roster

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After ace Charlie Morton sustained a fractured fibula during Game 1 of the World Series last night, the Braves have replaced him on their World Series roster with left-hander Tucker Davidson, per a league announcement.

Morton, 37, took a 102 mph Yuli Gurriel comebacker off the leg in last night’s game. The ball caromed over to first baseman Freddie Freeman, and Morton retired the next two hitters without issue. As Jeff Schultz of The Athletic writes, the Braves conducted X-rays between innings, which did not reveal a fracture, so Morton returned for the third inning. While the right-hander managed to strike out Jose Altuve, he was immediately visited by trainers after the following pitch and soon departed. A second set of X-rays then revealed a fracture.

Whether Morton had a fracture that was initially concealed by swelling or sustained the fracture during the Altuve at-bat, the end result is the same. Atlanta will be without its top starter and one of the best performers in recent postseason memory. It’s a tough loss to take, but the Braves hung on for a 6-2 victory in Game 1 and now find themselves just three wins from their first World Series title since 1995. The 25-year-old Davidson, who has just 21 2/3 innings of MLB experience, will be tasked with helping to realize that ultimate goal.

A 19th-round pick by Atlanta in 2016, Davidson has steadily improved his stock throughout his career and now ranks as one of the club’s more promising young arms. He tossed 20 innings over the life of four regular-season starts in 2021, notching a 4.15 ERA while striking out 18 of his 83 opponents (21.7%) against eight walks (9.6%). He was terrific in limited Triple-A action as well, logging a 1.17 ERA and a 28-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 innings out of the Gwinnett rotation.

A forearm injury interrupted Davidson’s season and limited him to just those eight starts during the regular season. He’s pitched in just one game since mid-June, a three-inning effort with Gwinnett back on Oct. 3. It’s unlikely he’ll be counted upon for lengthy relief stints, then, but he’ll still give the Braves a fresh arm should the need arise. Of course, the Astros represent a tough task for any southpaw, as Houston batted .270/.339/.449 against lefties as a team this season — good for an MLB-best 117 wRC+.

With Morton now finished for the season, it remains to be seen how the Braves will shape their rotation moving forward. Max Fried was announced as the Game 2 starter yesterday, but Atlanta has yet to announce starters for Game 3 or Game 4. Ian Anderson will likely draw the ball in Game 3.

Huascar Ynoa might’ve been an option but was removed from their NLCS roster due to a shoulder injury. As such, he’s ruled out for World Series work. Drew Smyly spent much of the season in Atlanta’s rotation but worked in a bullpen capacity down the stretch. He worked 3 1/3 innings in his lone postseason appearance to date (and, again, would have a tough draw against the ’Stros as a lefty). Kyle Wright is on the postseason roster and threw seven innings in his final Triple-A start — but that was back on Oct. 2. He hasn’t pitched since. With only two clear rotation options remaining, it’s possible the Braves will simply turn to a series of all-hands-on-deck bullpen games when Fried and Anderson don’t draw the start.

Braves Select Jesse Chavez, Tanner Roark

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5:58PM: The Braves officially announced the roster moves.

5:50PM: Tanner Roark’s contract has also been selected, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports (Twitter link).  Roark inked a minor league deal with Atlanta shortly after the Blue Jays released him in early May.  The veteran righty is looking for a fresh start after posting a 6.75 ERA over 54 2/3 innings for Toronto since the start of the 2020 season.  In corresponding moves, Atlanta optioned right-handers Kyle Wright and Ty Tice to Triple-A, while catcher Alex Jackson and lefty Tucker Davidson were moved to the 60-day IL to create space for Chavez and Roark on the 40-man roster.

12:26PM: The Braves will select the contract of right-hander Jesse Chavez to start a bullpen game against the Reds tonight, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Chavez signed a minor league pact with the Braves back in April.

It was already known that Atlanta would be going with a bullpen game Thursday after recently placing Max Fried on the injured list due to a blister and playing a pair of doubleheaders this week. The Braves have yet to formally announce the move themselves, though that announcement — and a corresponding 40-man roster move — figures to come along shortly.

Chavez, 37, is a 13-year Major League veteran who’ll now be in his second stint as a member of the Braves. He pitched in 28 games for Atlanta back in 2010 when he was still working to solidify himself as a viable big league arm. Things didn’t pan out the first time around, but Chavez has gone on to have a solid career as a well-traveled swingman. From 2013-19, he split time between the A’s, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Angels, Rangers and Cubs, working to a combined 4.12 ERA in 738 2/3 innings (77 starts, 230 relief outings).

The 2020 season was an ugly one for Chavez, who was tagged for 13 runs in 17 innings out of the Rangers’ bullpen. He’s bounced back with a strong showing for Triple-A Gwinnett in 2021, logging 20 innings of 2.25 ERA ball with a 27-to-8 K/BB ratio. He’s been particularly sharp of late, rattling off six straight shutout innings and punching out 11 of his past 22 opponents.

Chavez hasn’t thrown more than two innings or topped 35 pitches in any of his 13 appearances with Gwinnett this season, so it’s unlikely he’ll be tasked with pitching any more than three innings unless he makes particularly quick work of the Reds the first time through the order. Today’s outing figures to be a spot start, but Chavez has a solid overall track record in the Majors and could stick around to give the Braves some depth in the bullpen if he fares well.

Braves Promote Kyle Muller

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The Braves announced that left-handed pitching prospect Kyle Muller has been called up to the Major League roster.  Muller will take the spot of southpaw Tucker Davidson, who (as expected) was placed on the 10-day injured list due to left forearm inflammation.

Baseball Prospectus gave Muller solid rankings (60th in 2020, 62nd this year) in their last two preseason top-prospect listings, and MLB Pipeline lists Muller as the fifth-best prospect in Atlanta’s farm system.  A second-round pick in the 2016 draft, Muller posted solid numbers in his first four pro seasons and pitched at the Braves’ alternate training site in 2020, though he has hit some bumps in his first stint at Triple-A this year.

Muller has a 4.60 ERA through 31 1/3 frames for Triple-A Gwinnett, with a troublingly large number of homers (six) and walks (19) that undermines his 28.9% strikeout rate.  The home runs are a new issue for Muller, who gave up just 18 home runs total in his first 326 2/3 innings in Atlanta’s organization, though his control problems also began to creep up at Double-A in 2019.  MLB Pipeline’s scouting report cites Muller’s command as his chief issue, though also praises the 23-year-old’s ceiling as a potential four-pitch starter.  He already possesses a 65-grade fastball that sits in the high-90’s and a 55-grade curveball, and Muller has been working on improving his changeup and slider as well.

The Athletic’s David O’Brien (Twitter links) notes that Muller’s last three Triple-A outings have been very strong, which could explain why the Braves turned to Muller over Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, who have both have started games for the Braves this season.  Muller is slated for bullpen work for now, O’Brien writes, though it remains to be seen who will start in Davidson’s place on Sunday.

Braves’ Tucker Davidson Headed To IL With Forearm Strain

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Braves lefty Tucker Davidson left his start tonight against the Red Sox after 53 pitches due to a forearm strain, and he’s headed to the IL according to David O’Brien of The Athletic.  On a positive note, O’Brien says Davidson “tested well after coming out of the game” – ultimately a 10-8 loss for Atlanta.

Davidson, 25, made just the fifth appearance of his MLB career tonight.  His first three starts this year went quite well, with only three earned runs allowed in 17 2/3 innings.  Davidson opened the season at Triple-A Gwinnett, but got the call when Max Fried hit the IL for a hamstring injury.  He was sent back down without appearing in a game, but jumped into the Braves’ rotation in mid-May after Huascar Ynoa fractured his hand punching the dugout bench.  Davidson was optioned again despite pitching well in that May 18th start, but was the Braves’ choice when they needed a June 3rd spot start against the Nationals after several rainouts.

Prior to the season, Baseball America pegged Davidson as a 50-grade prospect despite some scouts’ belief that he profiles as a reliever in the Majors.  Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, currently working at Triple-A, could be options to replace Davidson.  The Braves also added veteran Tanner Roark in May, though he’s been working out of the bullpen for the Stripers.

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