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Triston Casas

Red Sox Notes: Casas To IL, Dalbec Recalled, Kluber Shut Down

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The Red Sox have placed first baseman Triston Casas on the 10-day IL with right shoulder inflammation, the team announced. In a corresponding move, Bobby Dalbec has been recalled from Triple-A Worcester. In other Red Sox news, starting pitcher Corey Kluber was scratched from his rehab appearance at Triple-A this afternoon. He has been shut down for the remainder of the season, the club revealed to reporters (including Ian Browne of MLB.com).

Casas is in the midst of an excellent rookie campaign, putting up an .856 OPS with 24 home runs. He leads the Red Sox in walk rate and on-base percentage and has been Boston’s best hitter by wRC+. He has been especially hot in the second half, posting a 1.031 OPS since the All-Star break. The 23-year-old is one of only seven AL rookies to qualify for the batting title, and among that group, he ranks first in numerous offensive categories, including OPS, wRC+, and xwOBA. He is likely to earn some down-ballot support for Rookie of the Year, although Gunnar Henderson remains the clear favorite to take home the hardware.

Unfortunately, a sore right shoulder could spell the end of Casas’s season. His IL placement is retroactive to September 15, which means he could return on September 25 at the earliest. By that point, the Red Sox will only have six games remaining, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll be in contention for a Wild Card spot. If Casas returns to full strength, his team would surely love to have him for those final two series, but they have no reason to rush him back.

Taking his place on the active roster will be Dalbec, who has spent most of the 2023 season at Triple-A after a poor major league showing in 2022. Dalbec was phenomenal during a brief cup of coffee in 2020, hitting eight home runs in 23 games. He followed that up with a solid campaign in 2021, posting a .792 OPS and a 106 wRC+ in 133 contests. However, he had a rough time the following year. His OPS fell by more than 100 points and his power seemed to disappear.

Dalbec opened the 2023 season at Triple-A, and he has come up only briefly on a few occasions throughout the year. He has impressive numbers with Worcester – 33 home runs, a .938 OPS, and a 131 wRC+ – although he has underwhelmed in ten games at the major league level, going 2-for-12 with eight strikeouts. The Red Sox will hope he can access his power with the big league club to fill the void in the lineup that Casas left behind.

Kluber was scheduled to make his third rehab appearance at Triple-A on Saturday, but the Red Sox scratched him from the game. He will continue his rehab work at home but will not pitch for Boston again this season. The veteran right-hander has been on the injured list with shoulder inflammation since mid-June.

A two-time Cy Young Award winner, Kluber enjoyed a mini-renaissance with the Rays last season, making 30 starts for the first time since 2018. However, he has struggled tremendously in his age-37 campaign, pitching to a 6.26 ERA in nine starts and a 9.45 ERA in six appearances out of the bullpen. His contract contains an $11MM team option for 2024, although it is highly unlikely the Red Sox will exercise the option.

Triston Casas Has Arrived

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Red Sox fans have been waiting roughly a half decade to see whether 2018 first-round pick Triston Casas would eventually become a fixture in the lineup. The hulking 6’4″, 252-pound slugger was selected with the No. 26 overall pick that year and has ranked among baseball’s 100 best prospects in each of the past four offseasons according to both Baseball America and MLB.com.

As recently as this April, however, the early returns were looking questionable. Casas got a cup of coffee last season, hitting five homers and walking at a 20% clip in 95 plate appearances — but also hitting the ball on the ground at a whopping 56.8% clip. Not an ideal trait for a slow-footed slugger. Add in a sluggish start to this season, which saw Casas pare back that ground-ball rate but experience a large uptick in strikeout percentage (30.2% through 96 plate appearances), and it was hardly a promising start. Through his first 192 big league plate appearances, Casas batted .162/.319/.344 with an elite 18.8% walk rate and above-average but not elite power. He fanned in 27.2% of those plate appearances.

In the three and a half months since, however, Casas has not only turned things around — he’s emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-lineup bat — at least against right-handed pitching. In his past 301 trips to the plate, Casas has produced a mammoth .293/.379/.540 output with 16 home runs, 13 doubles and a pair of triples. His walk rate is “down” to 12.3% in that time, and he’s fanned at a 23.6% rate that’s only slightly north of the league average.

The biggest change in Casas’ first couple months of big league experience and this productive stretch has been one of passivity — or rather, lack thereof. From last year’s debut through early May this year, Casas swung at just 62.9% of the pitches he saw within the strike zone (and 40% of pitches overall). During his this streak of mashing at the plate, he’s swinging at 72.2% of pitches in the strike zone and 45.2% of the pitches he sees overall. He’s now swinging at in-zone pitches at a higher-than-average rate (league average is 68.7%) but still swinging at a lower total percentage of pitches than the league-average 47.3%. That’s because Casas is rarely enticed by pitches out of the zone; he’s chased off the plate at just a 25.6% clip — more than six percentage points beneath the 31.8% league average.

As far as the quality of Casas’ contact, it’s been excellent. He was making consistent hard contact even before his early-May turnaround began, but the increased aggression within the strike zone now just means he’s making a lot more of it. Casas has averaged 91.5 mph off the bat this season (league average is 89.1 mph) and put 46.1% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or more (league average is 39.3%). Statcast has classified 14.5% of his batted balls as “barreled” (16.1% during his peak productivity).

Granted, some of the breakout has been a function of Casas being shielded from left-handed pitching. Casas has clear platoon issues in his young career, hitting just .193/.343/.325 against southpaws versus .257/.357/.503 against righties. This season, he’s 219th in the Majors with just 77 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The Sox haven’t completely eliminated his playing time against southpaws, but compare his total plate appearances against southpaws to fellow lefty-swinging teammates like Rafael Devers (148 plate appearances), Masataka Yoshida (123) and Alex Verdugo (140) — and it becomes clear that the Sox have at best been selective about the opportunities they’ll give him versus same-handed opposition.

Time will tell whether this year’s usage signals intent for long-term platooning or is just a means of building some confidence in the burgeoning young slugger. If the Sox want to platoon Casas moving forward, there’s at least one natural candidate down on the farm in 28-year-old Bobby Dalbec. Once a fairly heralded prospect himself, Dalbec has been squeezed out of the mix on the big league roster but responded with an outstanding .278/.384/.589 batting line and 30 homers in Triple-A this year. Against left-handed pitching, he’s posted a ludicrous .347/.438/.640 line. Dalbec’s future in Boston — he could potentially be a trade target for a club with eyes on giving him an everyday look this winter — is a topic worth diving into on its own, but suffice it to say he’s at least played his way into consideration for such a role. If not, the free agent market this offseason will feature right-handed bats like Garrett Cooper, C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano and Darin Ruf.

The Sox started Casas against southpaw MacKenzie Gore last night and left him in to face lefty reliever Jose Ferrer. (Casas went 1-for-3, singling off Ferrer.) It’s probably in their best interest to continue giving Casas opportunities against southpaws down the stretch, both to get him additional experience in left-on-left matchups and to help evaluate whether they’ll need a platoon partner for him in the long run.

Casas is still a work in progress defensively (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -11 Outs Above Average), and it’s an open question just how productive he’ll end up being against left-handed pitching.  If he can narrow his platoon splits and/or make some strides on the defensive side of his game, he has star potential in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. He already looks the part against right-handed pitching, however, and Casas’ dedication to the science of hitting (check out his recent Q&A with FanGraphs’ David Laurila) should serve him well as he looks to become a more complete hitter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Notes: Bloom, Deadline Plans, First Base, Sale

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A little under three weeks ago, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom wasn’t yet sure how the Red Sox might approach the trade deadline, or whether not the team might lean more towards buying or selling.  Since then, the Sox have been doing their best to force the front office’s hand, winning nine of their last 10 games and moving to a 49-43 record.  The Red Sox are two games out of a wild card berth and, despite a competitive AL East and AL playoff picture in general, it looks like Boston will be some kind of factor in the coming weeks and months leading up to October.

That said, Bloom’s overall perspective about the deadline hasn’t entirely changed, though naturally he is happy with how the Sox have been playing.

“I think the this bigger picture of how we’ve gotten here and how it’s come through a lot of progress from a lot of good performances from our long-term core — whether that’s young players or veteran players — is really encouraging in terms of where the arrow is pointing,” Bloom told Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.  “We’re gonna keep that in mind, too.  We feel like we’re making a lot of progress and we just want keep layering on more and more positive things toward that ultimate goal of a championship club.”

Bloom was clear that long-term competitiveness is still the front office’s overarching goal, yet competing this season certainly seems possible.  The CBO noted that the core’s development “has not only given us a chance to stay in this race in 2023, but I think has made us — and hopefully a lot of people who care about this team — really optimistic about where this is headed longer-term….Obviously what happens in the short-term, on some level we’re gonna need to factor that in and be responsive to it.  As long as we keep seeing the things we wanna see from our core guys, that’s obviously something that we’re gonna keep front and center.”

Trade talks have already been ongoing in advance of the August 1 deadline, and Bloom again implied that the Red Sox (like many teams) won’t be clear buyers or sellers.  The Sox could try to make deals that fall into either category, or they “might just be baseball trades that help everybody accomplish what they’re trying to accomplish.”  While the standings could certainly provide more clarity over the next two weeks, there are enough teams at least on the fringes of contention that Bloom feels “the [trade] conversations are just gonna require more creativity.”

While Bloom didn’t cite any areas of need heading into the deadline apart, Bloom did make a point of saying that the Red Sox weren’t looking for first base help, since the team is happy with its tandem of Triston Casas and (when he isn’t at DH or third base) Justin Turner.  It amounts to a vote of confidence in Casas, who has finally started hitting after a lengthy cold streak to begin the season.  Casas hit .184/.300/.342 over his first 180 plate appearances, but has since delivered a much improved .297/.383/.515 slash line in his last 115 PA.

Obviously the Red Sox weren’t going to just give up on a former top prospect who is only in his second MLB season, yet Casas’ recent results have helped solidify his place in Boston’s core, and as a contributor to their 2023 plans.  “Triston is learning and growing.  He’s clearly not a finished product yet, but when you look at the trajectory, he is moving in the right direction here offensively,” Bloom said.

Pitching would also seem to be a target need at the deadline, as while the Red Sox have a lot of injured arms projected to return relatively soon, there isn’t any guarantee that those hurlers will return on schedule, or be effective when they do return.  “Just because you have some of those guys that you expect to be back in action in August doesn’t mean you’re not looking to find other ways to help yourself,” Bloom said.

Chris Sale is one of those injured pitchers on the road to recovery, and manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) that Sale is slated for a bullpen session on Tuesday.  Sale suffered a stress reaction in his shoulder blade and will be out until at least the start of August, as per the minimum absence time required by his 60-day IL placement.  Since Sale is only starting to throw off a mound now, it seems likely that his ramp-up and rehab work will keep him out for longer than the first week of August.  Sale also noted two weeks ago that his injury “isn’t a very common issue” for a pitcher, so it may be a while before a solid rehab plan is finalized.

Red Sox Shuffling Infield Alignment

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The Red Sox are shuffling up their infield alignment, most notably dropping Enrique Hernandez from the everyday shortstop role and returning him to his more familiar split between center field and second base, manager Alex Cora announced to reporters last night (Twitter links via Alex Speier and Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). For the time being, utilityman Pablo Reyes will take the reins at shortstop. Cora also started Justin Turner at first base over Triston Casas last night, calling that the team’s best defensive alignment and noting that the Sox plan to work with Casas on his defense. (Turner, however, made a key error late in the eventual loss.)

Trevor Story’s offseason elbow surgery threw a wrench into the Red Sox’ infield plans, prompting the team to sign Adam Duvall to man center field and push Hernandez to shortstop — a position where he’d logged just 163 innings in the preceding four seasons combined. The Sox also picked up Adalberto Mondesi in a trade with the Royals, hoping he’d bring some additional depth, but he’s yet to play in a game this season due to ongoing injury woes.

Hernandez, 31, proved himself to be a lights-out defender in center field during his first season with the Red Sox in 2021, and Defensive Runs Saved has long credited him as an above-average second baseman. The shift to a less-familiar shortstop position wasn’t necessarily expected to be easy, but it’s been far more difficult than the team envisioned. No player in baseball has more errors than the 14 Hernandez has committed in just 411 innings at short. Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Outs Above Average (-8) have graded him as one of the game’s six worst defenders at any position so far in 2023. As a team, the Red Sox rank 26th in MLB in DRS (-20) and are tied for last in OAA (-16).

Hernandez’s struggles haven’t been confined to his glovework. This year’s .228/.296/.356 is a near-mirror image of last year’s lackluster performance. When Boston inked Hernandez to a one-year, $10MM extension last summer, the hope was surely that his bat would rebound closer to it 2021 levels (.250/.337/.449) and that the versatile Hernandez would continue to provide premium defense at multiple spots. That hasn’t happened, and Hernandez’s trouble on both sides of the ball is just one of the many reasons Boston sits two games below .500 — 14 games out of the division lead and 5.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race.

Casas, too, has fallen shy of expectations — particularly at the plate. Were the burly 24-year-old performing up to expectations with the bat, the team would likely be willing to live with any defensive shortcomings at first base. Instead, Casas is hitting just .200/.324/.368 with seven home runs. He’s walking at a sensational 15.8% clip but also fanning in 26.6% of his plate appearances. On top of that, he’s been dinged for -6 DRS and -4 OAA at first base.

The veteran Turner is outperforming Casas in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage alike thus far, and he’s looked comfortable enough in his 133 innings at first base that it seems the Sox are comfortable giving him some increased work there. Cora didn’t declare that there would be a full-time switch from Casas to Turner, but it certainly seems the Boston club is taking a hard look at its defense as it searches for ways to improve.

Story’s eventual return could help to solidify things in the infield, though he’ll likely return as a designated hitter before he takes any reps in the middle infield. Story said just this week that he’s hoping to return in a DH capacity sometime next month, but he isn’t likely to play any defense until August. Yu Chang’s impending return could give the Sox a more experienced option at short than Reyes, though Chang is a utilityman with a career .206/.271/.358 batting line, so installing him into the lineup isn’t likely to help the Sox’ offense.

Red Sox Notes: Whitlock, Rotation, Casas

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Despite a series of injuries to Garrett Whitlock and a history of success in the bullpen, the Red Sox are planning to keep the 26-year-old righty in the rotation once he returns from the injured list, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Manager Alex Cora plainly stated multiple times this weekend that the organization views Whitlock as a starter, and he pushed back on the notion that pitching on consecutive days, being ready to throw nearly everyday, warming up and sitting down without getting into a game (i.e. all the rigors that come with being a relief pitcher) would help Whitlock remain healthier.

Whitlock has a career 4.75 ERA in 55 innings as a starter compared to a 2.24 mark in 112 2/3 frames as a reliever, but he’s not yet had a lengthy audition in the rotation. Part of that is due to health issues — he had Tommy John surgery in 2020, missed time this year recovering from hip surgery, and is now with ulnar neuritis in his right arm — but the Sox remain committed to giving him an opportunity to work as a member of the starting staff.

Turning a lineup over has proven difficult for Whitlock to this point in his young career. Opponents have batted .275/.313/.363 against him the first time around as a starter, but that jumps to .272/.313/.533 on the second trip and .300/.364/.700 on the third time through (albeit, in a sample of just 22 plate appearances).

The Boston rotation currently consists of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello. Houck, who’s also hoping to establish himself as a viable long-term rotation piece for the Sox, is the only member of that group with an ERA south of 5.00. Sale, Kluber and Bello are all north of six earned runs per nine frames in their limited 2023 work thus far. Given those struggles and the fact that Kluber (signed through ’23) and Sale (signed through ’24) are relatively short-term pieces, it makes sense to see whether Whitlock, who is signed through 2026 with a pair of club options thereafter, can eventually find his footing in a rotation setting.

One potential arm on the mend is lefty James Paxton, who could impact the starting staff sooner than later. The veteran southpaw hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since April 2021 thanks to Tommy John surgery, a significant lat strain and a more minor hamstring strain, but he’s made five rehab appearances and was particularly sharp his last time out, with 5 1/3 shutout frames and an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio. It’s a stark contrast from an April 19 rehab appearance against the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate, where Paxton was tattooed for seven runs while only recording two outs.

MLB.com notes that Paxton will be reevaluated today to determine whether another rehab start is necessary. He’s coming up on the end of his 30-day minor league rehab window next week but would have time to make one more Triple-A outing if the organization deems it best for him.

In the lineup, the Sox have seen struggles from another hopeful long-term piece: first baseman Triston Casas, who’s hitting just .133/.283/.293 through his first 92 trips to the plate. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey writes that the team expects to stick with Casas at the MLB level for now, rather than sending him to Triple-A Worcester for any kind of reset. McCaffrey notes that manager Alex Cora cited Casas’ pitch recognition as a plus, despite the rocky average. Casas’ issues haven’t been chasing pitches off the plate so much as fouling off the in-zone pitches he needs to be punishing, Cora observed.

Casas currently has a 30.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate, which clocks in just shy of the 31.5% MLB average. He’s been more passive in the zone, however, with his 62.8% swing rate on pitches over the plate checking in five percentage points south of average. He’s averaging a hearty 90.7 mph off the bat when does put the ball in play and has three homers on the year, but Casas has also fanned in more than 29% of his plate appearances.

The Sox aren’t teeming with alternatives, however, particularly with Bobby Dalbec sporting a near-40% strikeout rate in Triple-A since his demotion. Veteran Justin Turner has started six games at first base for the Sox this season, so he’d presumably be in line for more work there if the team eventually decides that a minor league breather would be best for Casas.

Quick Hits: Bautista, Stephenson, Casas

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Orioles manager Brandon Hyde says that the club is hoping right-hander Félix Bautista can make his spring debut on Thursday. “He feels great, he feels totally healthy,” Hyde said, per Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.

Bautista, 28 in June, has been slowed in camp so far by knee and shoulder issues but seems to be on track now. If he makes his debut on Thursday as planned, he will have two weeks to get into game shape prior to Opening Day.

That’s good news for the O’s, as Bautista had an excellent debut last year. He made 65 appearances with a 2.19 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate. He worked his way up the Baltimore bullpen chart and eventually took over the closer’s role, earning 15 saves on the year.

Some other tidbits from around the majors…

  • Pirates right-hander Robert Stephenson has been held back by some right arm discomfort and still hasn’t thrown to hitters, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. At this point, it seems like the best-case scenario is Stephenson getting into some game action at the end of Spring Training. That suggests that anything other than the best-case scenario would lead to Stephenson starting the season on the injured list. The 30-year-old has been inconsistent in recent years, posting a 3.76 ERA in 2019 followed by a ghastly 9.90 figure in 2020. He got that down to 3.13 in 2021 before wavering again last year. He had a 6.04 ERA with the Rockies in August when they put him on waivers. The Pirates claimed him and saw the righty get back in a good groove to finish the year, with a 3.38 ERA over 13 appearances, striking out 36% of batters faced against a 2% walk rate. That was impressive enough for the Bucs to hang on to Stephenson and tender him a contract, eventually agreeing to a $1.75MM salary for his final arbitration season. If the Pirates are out of contention this summer, Stephenson would likely be available at the deadline if he’s healthy and performing well since he’s an impending free agent.
  • The Diamondbacks and Corbin Carroll came to an agreement yesterday on an eight-year, nine-figure extension. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox are interested in exploring similar deals with their own young players but that nothing is imminent with Triston Casas. Carroll and Casas are in similar positions, as they were each highly touted prospects that debuted late last year. The Sox showed faith in Casas by releasing Eric Hosmer, effectively clearing the first base job for him after his 27-game debut. His batting average was just .197 in that time but he walked in 20% of his trips to the plate and his five home runs. A couple of months ago, he expressed his openness to extension talks but also said that none had taken place yet. If those discussions have begun in the interim, it doesn’t seem like much progress has been made. There’s not much urgency at the moment, as Casas is still under club control for six more years and won’t even qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 season.

Triston Casas Open To Extension Talks With Red Sox

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Triston Casas, viewed as a future cornerstone at first base in Boston, spoke to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford this weekend and expressed an openness to discussing a long-term contract extension with the Red Sox. Alas, those talks have not actually gotten underway in any form …

“No. None whatsoever,” Casas told Bradford. “I haven’t thought about it. Nobody has approached me about it. And my representatives have never even mentioned it to [Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom] or anyone in the front office. I’m just focused on playing this year and we’ll see where it goes. It it happens, it happens. I would love to stay in Boston the rest of my life. I love the city in the little taste I’ve got of it. I don’t know anywhere else and I don’t want to. We’ll see what happens in a couple of years. Hopefully we get something done, but if we don’t we’ll go from there.”

The idea here would be to secure Casas through all of his pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible years and to likely also buy out at least a couple seasons of free agency. Bradford makes note of the “flurry of deals of seven-or-more years” that the Braves have pulled off with the likes of Spencer Strider, Michael Harris, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Many of those extensions were — and are — viewed as extremely team-friendly around the industry. And there’s not a natural comparison between any of them and what the Red Sox might be looking to do with Casas. He has appeared in only 27 major league games up to this point and will still carry rookie status into the 2023 campaign. Albies, for example, signed his bargain seven-year, $35MM pact with Atlanta in April 2019, having already logged more than 215 games at baseball’s highest level. Ke’Bryan Hayes, the Pirates’ long-term hope at third base, inked an eight-year, $70MM pact with Pittsburgh last April, exactly 120 games into his MLB career.

Casas flashed good power in his initial taste of big league action down the stretch in 2022, clubbing five home runs with a .766 OPS over 95 plate appearances. Granted, his batting average came in at just .197. Before his promotion on September 4, the 23-year-old consensus top-35 prospect registered a .273/.382/.481 batting line in 317 plate appearances at Triple-A Worcester.

Maybe something can get going on the extension front when Casas arrives at Red Sox camp in the spring. Or the wait could be quite a bit longer than that. But the goal is to ensure that he does not slip away from the organization like Xander Bogaerts did or build up the kind of negotiating power of a Rafael Devers, who commanded ten years, $313.5MM in new money from the Sox earlier this month.

Big Hype Prospects: Lewis, Casas, Smith, Duran, Jameson

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The Hot Stove has been turned off. Big Hype Prospects (and baseball at large) enters the coldest month. Still, we have much to discuss.

Five BHPs In The News

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (MLB)
41 PA, 2 HR, .300/.317/.550

A former first-overall pick, Lewis showed signs of breakout in 2020 but wasn’t able to take the field. He also lost his 2021 campaign. Encouragingly, he posted a .313/.405/.534 line in 153 Triple-A plate appearances last season. He also hit five home runs with 12 steals and an uncharacteristically high 11.8 percent walk rate. One of the main knocks against him as a hitter is overaggression. Alas, he required surgery on his ACL and is expected to be out until next June or July. While injuries have plagued his early career, he’s still managed encouraging skill growth.

This winter has served as a rollercoaster from the perspective of Lewis’ future role with the Twins. Aggressive offers to Carlos Correa made it seem as if Minnesota had a shot to sign him. Then, as we’re all aware, Correa agreed to contracts with the Giants and then the Mets. The door was open for Lewis to supplant Kyle Farmer at midseason. Now, the Twins are back in on Correa. Recent rumors make it seem as if they have a real shot. If they ink Correa, Lewis will move down the defensive spectrum.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481

Casas came up in the last edition of BHP so I’ll refer you there for a description of him as a player. More recently, he’s been tied to the Marlins in trade talks. Miami is shopping its rotation depth while hunting for an impactful lineup presence. Curiously, fan reactions on social media seem opposed to a deal from both perspectives. Red Sox fans have been sold on Casas as a mid-lineup contributor. He certainly seems to check all the desirable hitter boxes – power, discipline, and a decent rate of contact. It’s well established that pitchers are less reliable than hitters from a health perspective. Sox fans would rather discuss dealing the likes of Ceddanne Rafaela as part of a package. Following the DFA of Lewin Diaz – who was once described in similar ways to Casas, Marlins fans are understandably hesitant to burn their pitching depth on a first baseman – a position many view as easy to solve in free agency. The club can stand to upgrade at nearly every offensive position.

Josh Smith, 25, UT, TEX (MLB)
253 PA, 2 HR, 4 SB, .197/.307/.249

A utility man acquired from the Yankees as part of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith technically burned his rookie eligibility last year. He demonstrated the plate discipline and contact rate for which he’s known but struggled with the quality of said contact. He blends a fly ball profile with poor barreled and hard contact rates. His 105.4-mph max exit velocity is well below league average. Fly ball hitters who make consistently weak contact typically don’t start.

Earlier in the offseason, the Rangers were reportedly shopping Smith (and the next guy) for upgrades elsewhere. He’s also in the left field mix – a deep collection of interesting but unestablished outfielders. Connecting a few dots, the Rangers recent interest in Bryan Reynolds could have implications for Smith – either because his path to playing time is that much longer or he’s been dealt to the Pirates. The Rangers are known for a fly ball-oriented approach to their hitting instruction. Smith might benefit from an organization that invests in a more balanced contact profile.

Ezequiel Duran, 23, UT, TEX (MLB)
220 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .236/.277/.365

As with Smith, the Rangers perhaps prematurely used Duran’s rookie year. A third baseman who has been forced off the position by Josh Jung, Duran has moderate issues with plate discipline and contact rate. He features above-average raw power as evidenced by a 110.2-mph max exit velocity. However, if he qualified, his 85.9-mph average exit velocity would have ranked among the bottom 20 in the league. Consistency held him back in his debut. Duran doesn’t have an obvious role on the Rangers roster and has much to learn in all facets of his game.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
24.1 IP, 8.88 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.48 ERA

Jameson is one of several young pitchers battling for a rotation role with the Diamondbacks. After allowing a 6.95 ERA over 114 innings at Triple-A last season, I was skeptical about his ability to fit in a Major League rotation. Four starts did much to assuage my doubts. He’s a gimmicky pitcher who might best be used for short outings or relief work.

Pitch extension – the distance from the rubber when the pitcher releases the ball – is a trait taught by many organizations for a few reasons. The state of the arts suggests pitchers with average or better extension are more likely to have smoother mechanics. Extension also plays with perceived velocity. Jameson has among the worst extension in the league. His reach is short enough to play with hitters’ timing because his offerings feel like the crawl to home plate. It’s not uncommon to see hitters take uncomfortable swings against his two fastballs. Jameson has above-average command and also wields a slider he can throw for called strikes or swings out of the zone. His two fastballs both tunnel well with his two-location slider. Unfortunately, the heaters are very homer prone on account of his poor extension.

Three More

Ryne Nelson, ARI (24): Nelson is a typical pitching prospect possessing a four-pitch repertoire. He leans heavily on his fastball which he typically uses up in the zone to draw whiffs and weak fly balls. Neither his slider nor curve have stepped forward as his dominant breaking ball, though both offerings draw 50 grades from multiple evaluators. His changeup still lags behind his other pitches. He could slot into a high-leverage relief role. As a starter, he needs further refinement to become more than an innings eater.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): Unlike Jameson and Nelson, Pfaadt has yet to cut his teeth in the Majors. His minor league results are the most encouraging of the trio. A fly ball pitcher who generates plenty of swinging strikes and avoids free passes, Pfaadt shows advanced feel for using his repertoire to manipulate opposing hitters. There’s debate as to the quality of his specific offerings. It’s hard to pin down because he seemingly has used at least six distinct pitches.

Lenyn Sosa, CWS (22): Sosa was overmatched in a brief trial during the 2022 campaign, but he performed ably at Double- and Triple-A. He’s currently in the White Sox second base mix, competing with the likes of Romy Gonzalez and Leury Garcia. Scouts typically describe him as a future role player due to below-average athleticism. He habitually expands the strike zone.

Red Sox Notes: Devers, Casas, Houck, Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox entered the offseason hopeful of re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers, locking that pair of dynamic hitters into the heart of the order for the foreseeable future. Instead, Bogaerts signed an 11-year deal with the Padres, and talks with Devers have yet to bear fruit. Devers did agree to a one-year contract with for the upcoming 2023 season yesterday, locking in his salary at $17.5MM, but he was already under club control and the newly agreed-upon pact doesn’t do much to move the needle in long-term talks.

Both Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com report today that talks on a long-term deal have been “steady” in the past few weeks, though. As Cotillo points out, that wasn’t true early in the offseason. Still, the parties have been known to be facing a substantial gap. Devers has reportedly been searching for a deal north of $300MM, and given his age (26) and proximity to free agency (next offseason), that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.

If anything, the current offseason’s rash of mega-deals for in-their-prime stars has likely only further hardened Devers’ stance; he doesn’t have the defensive value of players like Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or even Bogaerts, but Devers will be a younger free agent than anyone who agreed to a major contract this winter. Devers will play all of the 2024 season (his first free-agent year) at 27. Turner (30 in June), Bogaerts (already 30) and Correa (who turned 28 in September) are all older, as was Aaron Judge, who inked a nine-year, $360MM contract entering his age-31 season.

Devers, of course, is one of the American League’s best hitters — evidenced by a .292/.352/.532 slash over the past four seasons. He’s twice topped 30 home runs, including a 38-homer campaign in 2021, and was on a roughly 30-homer pace in the shortened 2020 season as well. The primary knock on Devers has been his defensive prowess, or lack thereof, which has prompted some to wonder when a move to first base might become necessary.

The Sox, however, hope to have their first baseman of the future on the cusp of MLB readiness in the form of top prospect Triston Casas. The soon-to-be 23-year-old slugger debuted with a .197/.358/.408 batting line in 95 plate appearances last year, and while the low batting average was obviously discouraging, it came in a small sample. Casas also raked at a .273/.382/.481 clip in Triple-A Worcester over a larger sample of 317 plate appearances.

Casas has come up in trade rumblings recently, thanks to a report from the Miami Herald that the Marlins have inquired about the former first-round pick and Miami-area native in talks involving the Marlins’ stock of young pitchers. However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe highlights the many reasons that a trade of Casas is decidedly unlikely. As Speier notes, the team’s belief in Casas helped to temper interest in Freddie Freeman during his free agency and also contributed to the Red Sox’ decision to release Eric Hosmer.

Speier writes that the Red Sox are indeed intrigued by adding to the top half of their rotation — as most teams are — but perhaps not at the expense of Casas. The Sox appear willing to move pitchers from their big league roster, per the report, “potentially” even including right-hander Tanner Houck. To be clear, there’s no indication that Houck has been discussed extensively (or at all) with the Marlins or another club, nor is there any suggestion that the Red Sox are outright shopping the 24-year-old righty.

Still, Houck would be an interesting name for other clubs to look into, given that he’s controllable for another five seasons and has pitched to a sharp 3.02 ERA (2.95 FIP) in his first 146 MLB innings. The Sox surely value Houck and would likely only part with him in exchange for a meaningful (and controllable) upgrade elsewhere on the pitching staff or in the lineup. Dealing Houck while simultaneously looking to bring in rotation help is perhaps counterintuitive, but despite rising through the system as a starter, Houck has worked out of the bullpen more than the rotation in the Majors — including making 28 of his 32 appearances in 2022 as a reliever.

If the Sox view Houck primarily as a reliever — GM Brian O’Halloran was somewhat noncommittal on Houck’s 2023 role back in November — there’s some sense in being willing to at least listen to offers. Boston has, after all, added to its bullpen with offseason additions of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez but has been less active with regard to the rotation, where Corey Kluber is the lone addition to date. Again, none of this is to say Houck is readily available, but the mere possibility of the team entertaining offers is at least of some note.

Turning to a separate matter entirely, the Sox formally announced their coaching staff for the upcoming season earlier this morning. There are no surprises among the names included. Returning to manager Alex Cora’s staff will be pitching coach Dave Bush, hitting coach Peter Fatse, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coaches Ben Rosenthal and Luis Ortiz, third base/infield coach Carlos Febles, game-planning/catching coach Jason Varitek, and field coordinator Andy Fox. As reported earlier in the offseason, Ramon Vazquez is the team’s new bench coach, while Kyle Hudson has been hired away from the Guardians as the new first base/outfield coach.

Marlins Have Pursued Triston Casas In Trade Talks With Red Sox

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The Red Sox and Marlins have been discussing trade scenarios, with recent reporting indicating the Sox have have some interest in veteran infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas. It seems that they have also discussed a much more significant trade as well, with the Fish attempting to acquire young first baseman Triston Casas, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

Since Wendle and Rojas are both in their 30s and impending free agents, their trade value would be fairly modest. Casas, however, is turning 23 years old later this month, still has six remaining years of control and is generally considered one of the top 50 prospects in the game. If he were to be involved in any trade, it would surely go beyond a deal for Rojas or Wendle. The report from the Herald indicates Miami tried to pry Casas loose from Boston in discussions involving their starting pitchers.

There’s nothing to suggest that Boston is open to dealing Casas or ever gave serious consideration to the overtures coming from Miami. Still, it’s noteworthy that such a monumental deal has even been discussed. The Marlins have reportedly been trying to use their rotation surplus for a lineup boost for quite some time, but haven’t yet landed a deal to their liking. While ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Pérez are reportedly off limits, the Fish seem to be willing to part with one of Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera in a trade that would give them an impact bat and targeted Casas to be that guy.

The 26th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Casas mashed his way up the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year at the age of 22. He struck out in 24.2 percent of his trips to the plate, which was a bit above league average, but he also walked 20 percent of the time and launched five home runs in just 27 games. His lopsided .197/.358/.408 slash line resulted in a 120 wRC+, indicating he was 20 percent better than league average. That’s a very small sample size, but he’s also hit extremely well in the minors. In 72 Triple-A games last year, he hit .273/.382/.481 for a wRC+ of 127.

Though it makes sense that the Marlins would be interested in an exciting young player like that, it also makes sense that the Sox would want to hold onto him. Boston acquired Eric Hosmer from the Padres at last year’s deadline but then were seemingly impressed enough by the debut of Casas that they released Hosmer in December. To suddenly pivot and include Casas in a trade would be quite shocking.

The Marlins are also potentially interested in Ceddanne Rafaela, another highly-touted Boston prospect but one further away from the majors. The 22-year-old infielder/outfielder reached Double-A in 2022 and should be ready for exposure to Triple-A this year. He’s generally not ranked as highly as Casas but still has some hype, with Baseball America currently considering him the #78 prospect in all of baseball and MLB Pipeline placing him in the #96 slot. However, Jackson and Mish report that the Marlins are prioritizing improving the 2023 team, making Rafaela less interesting to them than the MLB-ready Casas.

The general framework of a trade isn’t totally inconceivable, in the sense that the Sox could surely use the starting pitching that the Marlins have to offer. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years while recent signee Corey Kluber is about to turn 37 and has injury question marks of his own. Garrett Whitlock has worked well in relief but seems to be headed for a move to the rotation despite just nine career MLB starts to this point in his career. Nick Pivetta is arguably the most reliable member of the bunch but he’s never posted an ERA below 4.53. Adding some more insurance into that group would make sense but it seems the acquisition costs being discussed with Miami are steep.

Though the Marlins have enough starting pitching to interest the Red Sox and many other teams around the league, these talks perhaps give us some insight as to why a deal still hasn’t come to fruition, given their high asking price. With those talks yet to bear fruit, the club has been limited to free agency in their pursuit of upgrading an offense that produced an 88 wRC+ in 2022, good enough for 25th place in the league.

The club had known interest in José Abreu, with Jackson and Mish reporting they offered a two-year deal in the $40MM range. Instead, Abreu joined the Astros on a three-year deal with a similar salary, amounting to a $58.5MM guarantee. The Marlins then pivoted to Justin Turner and offered him a one-year deal worth $15MM. He instead joined the Red Sox on a deal that pays him $15MM in 2023 but also has a player option for 2024 that would push his guarantee to $21.7MM over two years. The Fish also reportedly offered Brandon Drury $19MM over two years but he ended up taking a slightly smaller $17MM deal with the Angels. It had been recently reported by Sam Blum and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Drury grew up an Angels fan and also had a pre-existing relationship with Angels’ manager Phil Nevin from when Nevin was managing the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team that Drury was on in 2015 and 2016. After missing out on Abreu, Turner and Drury, the Marlins then got a deal done with Jean Segura.

While Segura is a solid addition, it seems the Marlins are still trying to complete a significant trade that will make an even larger impact on their lineup. It doesn’t seem likely that Casas will be the one, but it gives some sense of the type of impact player they have their eyes on. With about six weeks remaining until Spring Training, it will be very interesting to see what other players they pursue and if they can line up on a deal.

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