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Triston Casas

Red Sox Shuffling Infield Alignment

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The Red Sox are shuffling up their infield alignment, most notably dropping Enrique Hernandez from the everyday shortstop role and returning him to his more familiar split between center field and second base, manager Alex Cora announced to reporters last night (Twitter links via Alex Speier and Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). For the time being, utilityman Pablo Reyes will take the reins at shortstop. Cora also started Justin Turner at first base over Triston Casas last night, calling that the team’s best defensive alignment and noting that the Sox plan to work with Casas on his defense. (Turner, however, made a key error late in the eventual loss.)

Trevor Story’s offseason elbow surgery threw a wrench into the Red Sox’ infield plans, prompting the team to sign Adam Duvall to man center field and push Hernandez to shortstop — a position where he’d logged just 163 innings in the preceding four seasons combined. The Sox also picked up Adalberto Mondesi in a trade with the Royals, hoping he’d bring some additional depth, but he’s yet to play in a game this season due to ongoing injury woes.

Hernandez, 31, proved himself to be a lights-out defender in center field during his first season with the Red Sox in 2021, and Defensive Runs Saved has long credited him as an above-average second baseman. The shift to a less-familiar shortstop position wasn’t necessarily expected to be easy, but it’s been far more difficult than the team envisioned. No player in baseball has more errors than the 14 Hernandez has committed in just 411 innings at short. Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Outs Above Average (-8) have graded him as one of the game’s six worst defenders at any position so far in 2023. As a team, the Red Sox rank 26th in MLB in DRS (-20) and are tied for last in OAA (-16).

Hernandez’s struggles haven’t been confined to his glovework. This year’s .228/.296/.356 is a near-mirror image of last year’s lackluster performance. When Boston inked Hernandez to a one-year, $10MM extension last summer, the hope was surely that his bat would rebound closer to it 2021 levels (.250/.337/.449) and that the versatile Hernandez would continue to provide premium defense at multiple spots. That hasn’t happened, and Hernandez’s trouble on both sides of the ball is just one of the many reasons Boston sits two games below .500 — 14 games out of the division lead and 5.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race.

Casas, too, has fallen shy of expectations — particularly at the plate. Were the burly 24-year-old performing up to expectations with the bat, the team would likely be willing to live with any defensive shortcomings at first base. Instead, Casas is hitting just .200/.324/.368 with seven home runs. He’s walking at a sensational 15.8% clip but also fanning in 26.6% of his plate appearances. On top of that, he’s been dinged for -6 DRS and -4 OAA at first base.

The veteran Turner is outperforming Casas in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage alike thus far, and he’s looked comfortable enough in his 133 innings at first base that it seems the Sox are comfortable giving him some increased work there. Cora didn’t declare that there would be a full-time switch from Casas to Turner, but it certainly seems the Boston club is taking a hard look at its defense as it searches for ways to improve.

Story’s eventual return could help to solidify things in the infield, though he’ll likely return as a designated hitter before he takes any reps in the middle infield. Story said just this week that he’s hoping to return in a DH capacity sometime next month, but he isn’t likely to play any defense until August. Yu Chang’s impending return could give the Sox a more experienced option at short than Reyes, though Chang is a utilityman with a career .206/.271/.358 batting line, so installing him into the lineup isn’t likely to help the Sox’ offense.

Red Sox Notes: Whitlock, Rotation, Casas

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Despite a series of injuries to Garrett Whitlock and a history of success in the bullpen, the Red Sox are planning to keep the 26-year-old righty in the rotation once he returns from the injured list, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Manager Alex Cora plainly stated multiple times this weekend that the organization views Whitlock as a starter, and he pushed back on the notion that pitching on consecutive days, being ready to throw nearly everyday, warming up and sitting down without getting into a game (i.e. all the rigors that come with being a relief pitcher) would help Whitlock remain healthier.

Whitlock has a career 4.75 ERA in 55 innings as a starter compared to a 2.24 mark in 112 2/3 frames as a reliever, but he’s not yet had a lengthy audition in the rotation. Part of that is due to health issues — he had Tommy John surgery in 2020, missed time this year recovering from hip surgery, and is now with ulnar neuritis in his right arm — but the Sox remain committed to giving him an opportunity to work as a member of the starting staff.

Turning a lineup over has proven difficult for Whitlock to this point in his young career. Opponents have batted .275/.313/.363 against him the first time around as a starter, but that jumps to .272/.313/.533 on the second trip and .300/.364/.700 on the third time through (albeit, in a sample of just 22 plate appearances).

The Boston rotation currently consists of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello. Houck, who’s also hoping to establish himself as a viable long-term rotation piece for the Sox, is the only member of that group with an ERA south of 5.00. Sale, Kluber and Bello are all north of six earned runs per nine frames in their limited 2023 work thus far. Given those struggles and the fact that Kluber (signed through ’23) and Sale (signed through ’24) are relatively short-term pieces, it makes sense to see whether Whitlock, who is signed through 2026 with a pair of club options thereafter, can eventually find his footing in a rotation setting.

One potential arm on the mend is lefty James Paxton, who could impact the starting staff sooner than later. The veteran southpaw hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since April 2021 thanks to Tommy John surgery, a significant lat strain and a more minor hamstring strain, but he’s made five rehab appearances and was particularly sharp his last time out, with 5 1/3 shutout frames and an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio. It’s a stark contrast from an April 19 rehab appearance against the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate, where Paxton was tattooed for seven runs while only recording two outs.

MLB.com notes that Paxton will be reevaluated today to determine whether another rehab start is necessary. He’s coming up on the end of his 30-day minor league rehab window next week but would have time to make one more Triple-A outing if the organization deems it best for him.

In the lineup, the Sox have seen struggles from another hopeful long-term piece: first baseman Triston Casas, who’s hitting just .133/.283/.293 through his first 92 trips to the plate. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey writes that the team expects to stick with Casas at the MLB level for now, rather than sending him to Triple-A Worcester for any kind of reset. McCaffrey notes that manager Alex Cora cited Casas’ pitch recognition as a plus, despite the rocky average. Casas’ issues haven’t been chasing pitches off the plate so much as fouling off the in-zone pitches he needs to be punishing, Cora observed.

Casas currently has a 30.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate, which clocks in just shy of the 31.5% MLB average. He’s been more passive in the zone, however, with his 62.8% swing rate on pitches over the plate checking in five percentage points south of average. He’s averaging a hearty 90.7 mph off the bat when does put the ball in play and has three homers on the year, but Casas has also fanned in more than 29% of his plate appearances.

The Sox aren’t teeming with alternatives, however, particularly with Bobby Dalbec sporting a near-40% strikeout rate in Triple-A since his demotion. Veteran Justin Turner has started six games at first base for the Sox this season, so he’d presumably be in line for more work there if the team eventually decides that a minor league breather would be best for Casas.

Quick Hits: Bautista, Stephenson, Casas

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Orioles manager Brandon Hyde says that the club is hoping right-hander Félix Bautista can make his spring debut on Thursday. “He feels great, he feels totally healthy,” Hyde said, per Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.

Bautista, 28 in June, has been slowed in camp so far by knee and shoulder issues but seems to be on track now. If he makes his debut on Thursday as planned, he will have two weeks to get into game shape prior to Opening Day.

That’s good news for the O’s, as Bautista had an excellent debut last year. He made 65 appearances with a 2.19 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate. He worked his way up the Baltimore bullpen chart and eventually took over the closer’s role, earning 15 saves on the year.

Some other tidbits from around the majors…

  • Pirates right-hander Robert Stephenson has been held back by some right arm discomfort and still hasn’t thrown to hitters, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. At this point, it seems like the best-case scenario is Stephenson getting into some game action at the end of Spring Training. That suggests that anything other than the best-case scenario would lead to Stephenson starting the season on the injured list. The 30-year-old has been inconsistent in recent years, posting a 3.76 ERA in 2019 followed by a ghastly 9.90 figure in 2020. He got that down to 3.13 in 2021 before wavering again last year. He had a 6.04 ERA with the Rockies in August when they put him on waivers. The Pirates claimed him and saw the righty get back in a good groove to finish the year, with a 3.38 ERA over 13 appearances, striking out 36% of batters faced against a 2% walk rate. That was impressive enough for the Bucs to hang on to Stephenson and tender him a contract, eventually agreeing to a $1.75MM salary for his final arbitration season. If the Pirates are out of contention this summer, Stephenson would likely be available at the deadline if he’s healthy and performing well since he’s an impending free agent.
  • The Diamondbacks and Corbin Carroll came to an agreement yesterday on an eight-year, nine-figure extension. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox are interested in exploring similar deals with their own young players but that nothing is imminent with Triston Casas. Carroll and Casas are in similar positions, as they were each highly touted prospects that debuted late last year. The Sox showed faith in Casas by releasing Eric Hosmer, effectively clearing the first base job for him after his 27-game debut. His batting average was just .197 in that time but he walked in 20% of his trips to the plate and his five home runs. A couple of months ago, he expressed his openness to extension talks but also said that none had taken place yet. If those discussions have begun in the interim, it doesn’t seem like much progress has been made. There’s not much urgency at the moment, as Casas is still under club control for six more years and won’t even qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 season.

Triston Casas Open To Extension Talks With Red Sox

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Triston Casas, viewed as a future cornerstone at first base in Boston, spoke to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford this weekend and expressed an openness to discussing a long-term contract extension with the Red Sox. Alas, those talks have not actually gotten underway in any form …

“No. None whatsoever,” Casas told Bradford. “I haven’t thought about it. Nobody has approached me about it. And my representatives have never even mentioned it to [Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom] or anyone in the front office. I’m just focused on playing this year and we’ll see where it goes. It it happens, it happens. I would love to stay in Boston the rest of my life. I love the city in the little taste I’ve got of it. I don’t know anywhere else and I don’t want to. We’ll see what happens in a couple of years. Hopefully we get something done, but if we don’t we’ll go from there.”

The idea here would be to secure Casas through all of his pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible years and to likely also buy out at least a couple seasons of free agency. Bradford makes note of the “flurry of deals of seven-or-more years” that the Braves have pulled off with the likes of Spencer Strider, Michael Harris, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Many of those extensions were — and are — viewed as extremely team-friendly around the industry. And there’s not a natural comparison between any of them and what the Red Sox might be looking to do with Casas. He has appeared in only 27 major league games up to this point and will still carry rookie status into the 2023 campaign. Albies, for example, signed his bargain seven-year, $35MM pact with Atlanta in April 2019, having already logged more than 215 games at baseball’s highest level. Ke’Bryan Hayes, the Pirates’ long-term hope at third base, inked an eight-year, $70MM pact with Pittsburgh last April, exactly 120 games into his MLB career.

Casas flashed good power in his initial taste of big league action down the stretch in 2022, clubbing five home runs with a .766 OPS over 95 plate appearances. Granted, his batting average came in at just .197. Before his promotion on September 4, the 23-year-old consensus top-35 prospect registered a .273/.382/.481 batting line in 317 plate appearances at Triple-A Worcester.

Maybe something can get going on the extension front when Casas arrives at Red Sox camp in the spring. Or the wait could be quite a bit longer than that. But the goal is to ensure that he does not slip away from the organization like Xander Bogaerts did or build up the kind of negotiating power of a Rafael Devers, who commanded ten years, $313.5MM in new money from the Sox earlier this month.

Big Hype Prospects: Lewis, Casas, Smith, Duran, Jameson

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The Hot Stove has been turned off. Big Hype Prospects (and baseball at large) enters the coldest month. Still, we have much to discuss.

Five BHPs In The News

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (MLB)
41 PA, 2 HR, .300/.317/.550

A former first-overall pick, Lewis showed signs of breakout in 2020 but wasn’t able to take the field. He also lost his 2021 campaign. Encouragingly, he posted a .313/.405/.534 line in 153 Triple-A plate appearances last season. He also hit five home runs with 12 steals and an uncharacteristically high 11.8 percent walk rate. One of the main knocks against him as a hitter is overaggression. Alas, he required surgery on his ACL and is expected to be out until next June or July. While injuries have plagued his early career, he’s still managed encouraging skill growth.

This winter has served as a rollercoaster from the perspective of Lewis’ future role with the Twins. Aggressive offers to Carlos Correa made it seem as if Minnesota had a shot to sign him. Then, as we’re all aware, Correa agreed to contracts with the Giants and then the Mets. The door was open for Lewis to supplant Kyle Farmer at midseason. Now, the Twins are back in on Correa. Recent rumors make it seem as if they have a real shot. If they ink Correa, Lewis will move down the defensive spectrum.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481

Casas came up in the last edition of BHP so I’ll refer you there for a description of him as a player. More recently, he’s been tied to the Marlins in trade talks. Miami is shopping its rotation depth while hunting for an impactful lineup presence. Curiously, fan reactions on social media seem opposed to a deal from both perspectives. Red Sox fans have been sold on Casas as a mid-lineup contributor. He certainly seems to check all the desirable hitter boxes – power, discipline, and a decent rate of contact. It’s well established that pitchers are less reliable than hitters from a health perspective. Sox fans would rather discuss dealing the likes of Ceddanne Rafaela as part of a package. Following the DFA of Lewin Diaz – who was once described in similar ways to Casas, Marlins fans are understandably hesitant to burn their pitching depth on a first baseman – a position many view as easy to solve in free agency. The club can stand to upgrade at nearly every offensive position.

Josh Smith, 25, UT, TEX (MLB)
253 PA, 2 HR, 4 SB, .197/.307/.249

A utility man acquired from the Yankees as part of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith technically burned his rookie eligibility last year. He demonstrated the plate discipline and contact rate for which he’s known but struggled with the quality of said contact. He blends a fly ball profile with poor barreled and hard contact rates. His 105.4-mph max exit velocity is well below league average. Fly ball hitters who make consistently weak contact typically don’t start.

Earlier in the offseason, the Rangers were reportedly shopping Smith (and the next guy) for upgrades elsewhere. He’s also in the left field mix – a deep collection of interesting but unestablished outfielders. Connecting a few dots, the Rangers recent interest in Bryan Reynolds could have implications for Smith – either because his path to playing time is that much longer or he’s been dealt to the Pirates. The Rangers are known for a fly ball-oriented approach to their hitting instruction. Smith might benefit from an organization that invests in a more balanced contact profile.

Ezequiel Duran, 23, UT, TEX (MLB)
220 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .236/.277/.365

As with Smith, the Rangers perhaps prematurely used Duran’s rookie year. A third baseman who has been forced off the position by Josh Jung, Duran has moderate issues with plate discipline and contact rate. He features above-average raw power as evidenced by a 110.2-mph max exit velocity. However, if he qualified, his 85.9-mph average exit velocity would have ranked among the bottom 20 in the league. Consistency held him back in his debut. Duran doesn’t have an obvious role on the Rangers roster and has much to learn in all facets of his game.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
24.1 IP, 8.88 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.48 ERA

Jameson is one of several young pitchers battling for a rotation role with the Diamondbacks. After allowing a 6.95 ERA over 114 innings at Triple-A last season, I was skeptical about his ability to fit in a Major League rotation. Four starts did much to assuage my doubts. He’s a gimmicky pitcher who might best be used for short outings or relief work.

Pitch extension – the distance from the rubber when the pitcher releases the ball – is a trait taught by many organizations for a few reasons. The state of the arts suggests pitchers with average or better extension are more likely to have smoother mechanics. Extension also plays with perceived velocity. Jameson has among the worst extension in the league. His reach is short enough to play with hitters’ timing because his offerings feel like the crawl to home plate. It’s not uncommon to see hitters take uncomfortable swings against his two fastballs. Jameson has above-average command and also wields a slider he can throw for called strikes or swings out of the zone. His two fastballs both tunnel well with his two-location slider. Unfortunately, the heaters are very homer prone on account of his poor extension.

Three More

Ryne Nelson, ARI (24): Nelson is a typical pitching prospect possessing a four-pitch repertoire. He leans heavily on his fastball which he typically uses up in the zone to draw whiffs and weak fly balls. Neither his slider nor curve have stepped forward as his dominant breaking ball, though both offerings draw 50 grades from multiple evaluators. His changeup still lags behind his other pitches. He could slot into a high-leverage relief role. As a starter, he needs further refinement to become more than an innings eater.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): Unlike Jameson and Nelson, Pfaadt has yet to cut his teeth in the Majors. His minor league results are the most encouraging of the trio. A fly ball pitcher who generates plenty of swinging strikes and avoids free passes, Pfaadt shows advanced feel for using his repertoire to manipulate opposing hitters. There’s debate as to the quality of his specific offerings. It’s hard to pin down because he seemingly has used at least six distinct pitches.

Lenyn Sosa, CWS (22): Sosa was overmatched in a brief trial during the 2022 campaign, but he performed ably at Double- and Triple-A. He’s currently in the White Sox second base mix, competing with the likes of Romy Gonzalez and Leury Garcia. Scouts typically describe him as a future role player due to below-average athleticism. He habitually expands the strike zone.

Red Sox Notes: Devers, Casas, Houck, Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox entered the offseason hopeful of re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers, locking that pair of dynamic hitters into the heart of the order for the foreseeable future. Instead, Bogaerts signed an 11-year deal with the Padres, and talks with Devers have yet to bear fruit. Devers did agree to a one-year contract with for the upcoming 2023 season yesterday, locking in his salary at $17.5MM, but he was already under club control and the newly agreed-upon pact doesn’t do much to move the needle in long-term talks.

Both Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com report today that talks on a long-term deal have been “steady” in the past few weeks, though. As Cotillo points out, that wasn’t true early in the offseason. Still, the parties have been known to be facing a substantial gap. Devers has reportedly been searching for a deal north of $300MM, and given his age (26) and proximity to free agency (next offseason), that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.

If anything, the current offseason’s rash of mega-deals for in-their-prime stars has likely only further hardened Devers’ stance; he doesn’t have the defensive value of players like Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or even Bogaerts, but Devers will be a younger free agent than anyone who agreed to a major contract this winter. Devers will play all of the 2024 season (his first free-agent year) at 27. Turner (30 in June), Bogaerts (already 30) and Correa (who turned 28 in September) are all older, as was Aaron Judge, who inked a nine-year, $360MM contract entering his age-31 season.

Devers, of course, is one of the American League’s best hitters — evidenced by a .292/.352/.532 slash over the past four seasons. He’s twice topped 30 home runs, including a 38-homer campaign in 2021, and was on a roughly 30-homer pace in the shortened 2020 season as well. The primary knock on Devers has been his defensive prowess, or lack thereof, which has prompted some to wonder when a move to first base might become necessary.

The Sox, however, hope to have their first baseman of the future on the cusp of MLB readiness in the form of top prospect Triston Casas. The soon-to-be 23-year-old slugger debuted with a .197/.358/.408 batting line in 95 plate appearances last year, and while the low batting average was obviously discouraging, it came in a small sample. Casas also raked at a .273/.382/.481 clip in Triple-A Worcester over a larger sample of 317 plate appearances.

Casas has come up in trade rumblings recently, thanks to a report from the Miami Herald that the Marlins have inquired about the former first-round pick and Miami-area native in talks involving the Marlins’ stock of young pitchers. However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe highlights the many reasons that a trade of Casas is decidedly unlikely. As Speier notes, the team’s belief in Casas helped to temper interest in Freddie Freeman during his free agency and also contributed to the Red Sox’ decision to release Eric Hosmer.

Speier writes that the Red Sox are indeed intrigued by adding to the top half of their rotation — as most teams are — but perhaps not at the expense of Casas. The Sox appear willing to move pitchers from their big league roster, per the report, “potentially” even including right-hander Tanner Houck. To be clear, there’s no indication that Houck has been discussed extensively (or at all) with the Marlins or another club, nor is there any suggestion that the Red Sox are outright shopping the 24-year-old righty.

Still, Houck would be an interesting name for other clubs to look into, given that he’s controllable for another five seasons and has pitched to a sharp 3.02 ERA (2.95 FIP) in his first 146 MLB innings. The Sox surely value Houck and would likely only part with him in exchange for a meaningful (and controllable) upgrade elsewhere on the pitching staff or in the lineup. Dealing Houck while simultaneously looking to bring in rotation help is perhaps counterintuitive, but despite rising through the system as a starter, Houck has worked out of the bullpen more than the rotation in the Majors — including making 28 of his 32 appearances in 2022 as a reliever.

If the Sox view Houck primarily as a reliever — GM Brian O’Halloran was somewhat noncommittal on Houck’s 2023 role back in November — there’s some sense in being willing to at least listen to offers. Boston has, after all, added to its bullpen with offseason additions of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez but has been less active with regard to the rotation, where Corey Kluber is the lone addition to date. Again, none of this is to say Houck is readily available, but the mere possibility of the team entertaining offers is at least of some note.

Turning to a separate matter entirely, the Sox formally announced their coaching staff for the upcoming season earlier this morning. There are no surprises among the names included. Returning to manager Alex Cora’s staff will be pitching coach Dave Bush, hitting coach Peter Fatse, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coaches Ben Rosenthal and Luis Ortiz, third base/infield coach Carlos Febles, game-planning/catching coach Jason Varitek, and field coordinator Andy Fox. As reported earlier in the offseason, Ramon Vazquez is the team’s new bench coach, while Kyle Hudson has been hired away from the Guardians as the new first base/outfield coach.

Marlins Have Pursued Triston Casas In Trade Talks With Red Sox

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The Red Sox and Marlins have been discussing trade scenarios, with recent reporting indicating the Sox have have some interest in veteran infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas. It seems that they have also discussed a much more significant trade as well, with the Fish attempting to acquire young first baseman Triston Casas, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

Since Wendle and Rojas are both in their 30s and impending free agents, their trade value would be fairly modest. Casas, however, is turning 23 years old later this month, still has six remaining years of control and is generally considered one of the top 50 prospects in the game. If he were to be involved in any trade, it would surely go beyond a deal for Rojas or Wendle. The report from the Herald indicates Miami tried to pry Casas loose from Boston in discussions involving their starting pitchers.

There’s nothing to suggest that Boston is open to dealing Casas or ever gave serious consideration to the overtures coming from Miami. Still, it’s noteworthy that such a monumental deal has even been discussed. The Marlins have reportedly been trying to use their rotation surplus for a lineup boost for quite some time, but haven’t yet landed a deal to their liking. While ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Pérez are reportedly off limits, the Fish seem to be willing to part with one of Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera in a trade that would give them an impact bat and targeted Casas to be that guy.

The 26th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Casas mashed his way up the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year at the age of 22. He struck out in 24.2 percent of his trips to the plate, which was a bit above league average, but he also walked 20 percent of the time and launched five home runs in just 27 games. His lopsided .197/.358/.408 slash line resulted in a 120 wRC+, indicating he was 20 percent better than league average. That’s a very small sample size, but he’s also hit extremely well in the minors. In 72 Triple-A games last year, he hit .273/.382/.481 for a wRC+ of 127.

Though it makes sense that the Marlins would be interested in an exciting young player like that, it also makes sense that the Sox would want to hold onto him. Boston acquired Eric Hosmer from the Padres at last year’s deadline but then were seemingly impressed enough by the debut of Casas that they released Hosmer in December. To suddenly pivot and include Casas in a trade would be quite shocking.

The Marlins are also potentially interested in Ceddanne Rafaela, another highly-touted Boston prospect but one further away from the majors. The 22-year-old infielder/outfielder reached Double-A in 2022 and should be ready for exposure to Triple-A this year. He’s generally not ranked as highly as Casas but still has some hype, with Baseball America currently considering him the #78 prospect in all of baseball and MLB Pipeline placing him in the #96 slot. However, Jackson and Mish report that the Marlins are prioritizing improving the 2023 team, making Rafaela less interesting to them than the MLB-ready Casas.

The general framework of a trade isn’t totally inconceivable, in the sense that the Sox could surely use the starting pitching that the Marlins have to offer. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years while recent signee Corey Kluber is about to turn 37 and has injury question marks of his own. Garrett Whitlock has worked well in relief but seems to be headed for a move to the rotation despite just nine career MLB starts to this point in his career. Nick Pivetta is arguably the most reliable member of the bunch but he’s never posted an ERA below 4.53. Adding some more insurance into that group would make sense but it seems the acquisition costs being discussed with Miami are steep.

Though the Marlins have enough starting pitching to interest the Red Sox and many other teams around the league, these talks perhaps give us some insight as to why a deal still hasn’t come to fruition, given their high asking price. With those talks yet to bear fruit, the club has been limited to free agency in their pursuit of upgrading an offense that produced an 88 wRC+ in 2022, good enough for 25th place in the league.

The club had known interest in José Abreu, with Jackson and Mish reporting they offered a two-year deal in the $40MM range. Instead, Abreu joined the Astros on a three-year deal with a similar salary, amounting to a $58.5MM guarantee. The Marlins then pivoted to Justin Turner and offered him a one-year deal worth $15MM. He instead joined the Red Sox on a deal that pays him $15MM in 2023 but also has a player option for 2024 that would push his guarantee to $21.7MM over two years. The Fish also reportedly offered Brandon Drury $19MM over two years but he ended up taking a slightly smaller $17MM deal with the Angels. It had been recently reported by Sam Blum and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Drury grew up an Angels fan and also had a pre-existing relationship with Angels’ manager Phil Nevin from when Nevin was managing the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team that Drury was on in 2015 and 2016. After missing out on Abreu, Turner and Drury, the Marlins then got a deal done with Jean Segura.

While Segura is a solid addition, it seems the Marlins are still trying to complete a significant trade that will make an even larger impact on their lineup. It doesn’t seem likely that Casas will be the one, but it gives some sense of the type of impact player they have their eyes on. With about six weeks remaining until Spring Training, it will be very interesting to see what other players they pursue and if they can line up on a deal.

Big Hype Prospects: Moreno, Ortiz, Casas, Perez, Rafaela

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we catch up on some pre-holiday shopping.

Five BHPs In The News

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 267 PA, 3 HR, 7 SB, .315/.386/.420

Moreno headlined the Diamondbacks return in the Daulton Varsho trade. FanGraphs describes him as “the most athletic catcher to come along since J.T. Realmuto.” Last season, Moreno continued to put his contact skills on display. A brief 73 plate appearance trial in the Majors yielded a high batting average and tiny 11.0 percent strikeout rate. He generally produces modest exit velocities with a low angle of contact. In plain english, power isn’t a big part of his game, but he’ll be a valuable hitter all the same. He’ll need to make substantial adjustments to ever become a regular 20 homer threat.

There are questions about his ability to carry a full workload given that he’s never topped 350 plate appearances in a season. He’s considered an above average defender with sufficient athleticism to improve. With Carson Kelly still in-house, the Diamondbacks can consider platooning Moreno between catcher and designated hitter while working on his durability.

Luis Ortiz, 23, SP, PIT (MLB)
(AA) 114.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.64 ERA

The lightbulb clicked for Ortiz partway through the 2022 campaign. His command improved as he became more aggressive with his domineering stuff leading to a successful 10 inning stint in Triple-A followed by 16 more frames in the Majors. Given his lack of Triple-A experience, it’s understandable why the Pirates have gone out of their way to delay Ortiz’s arrival via the signings of Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill. Ortiz has impressive Statcast measurables. Health permitting, he’s on pace to soon form a potent one-two punch with Roansy Contreras in the Pirates rotation.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481

Virtually everybody in baseball is ready to see Casas sink or swim as the Red Sox first baseman of the present and future. The only barrier entering this offseason was a certain veteran. Removing Eric Hosmer from the roster ensures manager Alex Cora won’t have to juggle any difficult decisions. Casas had a mixed 95 plate appearance debut last season, showing power and discipline but posting a poor .197 batting average. In this case, his .208 BABIP appears especially fluky. If anything, his batting profile is that of a high-BABIP hitter. Some of his at bats felt like he was selling out for contact (my personal observation, not that of a scout), a common “mistake” among debut hitters. Look for him to further refine his approach and consistency in 2023.

Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)
75 IP, 12.72 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 4.08 ERA

On the shortlist with Andrew Painter for most exciting teenaged pitching prospect, Perez is one of the reasons the Marlins are shopping Major League starting pitchers. He’s on pace to arrive in the second half of 2023. Scouts laud his excellent fastball command and biting slider. He’s a skyscraper of a man whose very size ensures a unique look. Scouts believe his changeup can develop into a weapon as well. His curveball is seen as a less competitive offering that can play up based on the effectiveness of his other pitches.

It’s worth mentioning this is the organization that, a decade ago, jumped a 20-year-old Jose Fernandez straight from High-A to the Majors. Of course, none of those decision-makers remain on hand, making it highly unlikely we see a repeat with Perez.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 522 PA, 21 HR, 28 SB, .299/.342/.539

The Red Sox are reportedly shopping their prospects for upgrades with Rafaela serving as the most-highly valued of the bunch. Rafaela wasn’t a consensus top prospect in the Red Sox system prior to last season. Now he’s widely considered their third-best farmhand behind Marcelo Mayer and Casas. He displayed a tantalizing mix of power and speed last season, though there are still worrisome signs with his offensive stats. He lacks discipline and carries a high swinging-strike rate. Hitters who thrive with the Javy Baez profile are few and far between.

Should his discipline and whiff issues become an impediment, Rafaela has super utility man potential. He’s presently being trained as a center fielder. He also played 12 games at shortstop last season and has prior experience at second and third base. He’s considered an above average outfielder. I do not have reports on his infielding acumen.

Three More

Corbin Carroll, ARI (22): Although there was little doubt Carroll would start for the 2023 Diamondbacks, the Varsho trade all but ensures an Opening Day role. A line drive machine with excellent discipline in the minors, Carroll had a mixed debut. His 130 wRC+ in 115 big league plate appearances belied below average exit velocities and merely average discipline. Look for those traits to dramatically improve throughout 2023.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Another “winner” of the Varsho trade, Fletcher no longer has an entire squadron of outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart. Should Alek Thomas continue to struggle and Jake McCarthy suffer a sophomore slump, then Fletcher might just worm his way into the Arizona lineup. Likelier, he’ll serve as trade bait. The Diamondbacks still need pitching depth.

Kumar Rocker, TEX (22): Kumar made his debut in the Arizona Fall League, pitching 14 innings with mixed results. His 18 strikeouts were encouraging, but they were offset by 12 walks and a 4.50 ERA. He appeared in the news this last week in connection to Carlos Correa’s delayed contract with the Mets. New York selected Rocker in the first round of the 2021 draft only to back out of their deal over concerns with his physical.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays’ Catchers, Yoshida, Red Sox

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All off-season it’s seemed a matter of when not if the Blue Jays trade one of their three catchers – Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and Gabriel Moreno. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Blue Jays were open to trading Jansen to bring in a starting pitcher, but after landing Chris Bassitt on a three-year, $63MM deal Feinsand reports that a trade is no certainty now.

In any event, Toronto is in a strong negotiating position as there’s a few paths they could go down. The clear top two free agent options – Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez – are off the board, while the Braves have acquired Sean Murphy, making the Blue Jays the clear and obvious fit for any catcher-hungry teams. They could also opt to carry three catchers on the active roster, cycling players through the DH spot, or option Moreno back to Triple-A and go with a Kirk-Jansen tandem to begin the year at least.

The additions of Bassitt to the rotation and Kevin Kiermaier to the outfield decrease the clear needs for the Blue Jays to address this winter, but in a competitive AL East, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them ultimately opt to pursue further upgrades, whether via trade or free agency. As Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, the Jays were finalists for Masataka Yoshida (the Dodgers were the other finalist) before he signed for the Red Sox. It’s not clear whether the Kiermaier signing arose because they missed out on Yoshida, or whether they tried to sign both, but given the former’s injury history and declining production it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them seek another outfielder.

Boston’s signing of Yoshida addressed the need to upgrade their offense following the departure of Xander Bogaerts to San Diego. It also likely spelled the end of any chance of Eric Hosmer, who was DFA’d yesterday, receiving regular at bats. The Red Sox look to have locked in youngster Triston Casas as their everyday first-baseman moving forward, while Yoshida (and others) could well take a few DH at bats as the Red Sox cycle through their outfielders. Boston’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom addressed the DFA of Hosmer to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

“Our roster isn’t complete yet, but as we build our club, we feel it’s important to give Triston a clear lane, and that carrying two left-handed hitting first basemen would leave us short in other areas. Given that, it’s important to do right by Eric and give him time to find his next opportunity. We knew when we first got him that this day would come at some point, and wanted to make sure we treated him right.”

Cotillo also reports that the Red Sox tried hard to trade Hosmer prior to DFA’ing him, but found minimal interest in the league. Hosmer did receive a full no-trade clause as part of the trade that sent him from San Diego to Boston at the deadline, but Cotillo’s report said that the lack of trade interest meant the no-trade clause didn’t even come into play. The Red Sox can still trade him while he’s on waivers, but it seems likely he’d be released onto the open market.

While an outgoing trade of Hosmer seems unlikely, the team is working on incomings, and recently asked the Marlins about Miguel Rojas, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rojas was one of the top defensive shortstops in the sport last season, and as Rosenthal notes, the Marlins value that defense and rebuffed Boston’s inquiry. Rojas is under contract for one more year at an affordable $5MM salary.

Analyzing Boston’s First Base Decision

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Following an unexpected 2021 run that nearly culminated in a World Series berth, the Red Sox found themselves watching this year’s playoffs at home after finishing at the bottom of the AL East. One key area of criticism for the team was their production at first base. With four different players having at least 50 at-bats at the position, Boston struggled to a collective .210/.294/.369 slash line that ranked third-lowest in batting average, sixth-lowest in on-base percentage, seventh-lowest in slugging percentage, and resulted in wRC+ of 85, the fourth-lowest league-wide. This came only a year after Boston’s first basemen slashed a respectable .235/.310/.463, with a boosted .266/.366/.560 line during the second half of the season following the mid-season acquisition of slugger Kyle Schwarber (.291/.435/.522) and the seeming breakout of Bobby Dalbec (.269/.344/.611).

As discussed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook, Boston faces an interesting decision as the team looks to return to playoff contention in 2023. Currently, the Red Sox have four first basemen on their 40-Man roster: rookie Triston Casas, former top-prospect Bobby Dalbec, 1B/OF Franchy Cordero, and veteran Eric Hosmer. As free agency progresses, it’s plausible that at least one of these players loses their spot on the roster before Spring Training.

Starting with the obvious candidate to earn the bulk of playing time in Boston next season, September call-up Triston Casas. Selected by the Red Sox in the first round of the 2018 draft (26th overall), Casas profiles as an above-average hitter who peppers the ball across the entire field. After hitting .273/.382/.481 with 11 homers in Triple-A Worcester during the 2022 season, Casas made his major league debut. The 22-year-old showed promise in his limited at-bats, hitting .197/.358/.408 with five homers in 76 at-bats. Despite his weak batting average, he demonstrated tremendous plate disciple, walking at a 20% clip (compared to the 8.2% league average) while striking out at a slightly elevated rate (24.2% compared to 22.4%).

Casas is controllable through the 2028 season and will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2025 season, making him a favorite to potentially hold down first base in Boston for the better part of the decade.

Another front-runner to remain on the 2023 roster is righty Bobby Dalbec. Like Casas, Dalbec was a top prospect who made a promising debut late in the 2020 season, slashing .264/.359/.600 with eight home runs in 80 at-bats. Given these strong numbers, Dalbec was handed first base to start the 2021 season but struggled, hitting a weaker .219/.264/.409 during the first half of the season. His floundering led Boston to trade for reinforcement in the form of Kyle Schwarber.

However, the trade for Schwarber led to a boost in production from the youngster, with Dalbec hitting a resounding .269/.344/.611 during the second half of the season. Dalbec pointed to Schwarber as a source of his production, saying that the veteran helped him “get through the ball more” and allowed him to “pull the ball more instead of trying to force it out there” before more directly saying that Schwarber was “big for me,” per Khari Thompson of Boston.com.

On the heels of a strong end to his 2021 season, Dalbec was once again penciled in as the Red Sox first baseman and, once again, struggled. Over the first half of the season, Dalbec hit a paltry .205/.286/.344 with a high 31.3% strikeout rate. Following the All-Star break, he showed minor improvements, hitting .237/.277/.430, albeit with a mammoth 38.6% strikeout rate.

With just over two years of service time and a fraction of his 2020 trade value, the Red Sox will likely opt to keep the 27-year-old with the organization. Dalbec has two option years remaining, meaning that the Sox can send him to Triple-A Worcester without having to pass him through waivers and risk losing him to another organization.

Franchy Cordero began the 2022 season in Worcester but was called up in late April after veteran Travis Shaw began the season 0 for 19 with seven strikeouts. He spent most of the season in Boston, accruing 275 plate appearances and slashing a respectable .219/.300/.397 before suffering a right ankle sprain in early September and landing on the 60-day IL.

It was Cordero’s second season with the Sox, joining the team in the Andrew Benintendi trade with Kansas. During the second half of the season, the 28-year-old hit an interesting .191/305/.490 with two homers. MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook has flagged Cordero as a potential non-tender candidate with the six-season veteran projected to earn $1.5M through arbitration.

The last first base option currently on the Red Sox 40-Man is veteran Eric Hosmer. Acquired from the Padres along with prospects at the trade deadline, Hosmer is earning $39MM through the 2025 season, but San Diego is covering all but the league minimum MLB salary.

Since signing his now-infamous deal with the Padres, Hosmer has hit .265/.325/.410, a notable regression from his .292/.351/.449 line over his last five seasons with the Royals. He has had a poor start to his Boston career thus far, hitting .244/.320/.311 in 45 at-bats, but brings playoff experience and veteran leadership to a relatively inexperienced first base corp. Hosmer is also a four-time Gold Glove winner and could be used as a late-game defensive substitute and mentor to Casas before potentially being DFA’d later in the season if the Red Sox need a roster spot, speculatively speaking.

Returning to a general discussion, it is relevant to note that out of the four listed players, only Dalbec possesses a right-handed bat. Additionally, Dalbec has been a stronger hitter against southpaws, batting an above-average .268/.333/.522 against them (compared to .212/.278/.418 against righties) and may carve out a platoon role with the left-handed hitting Casas. Moreover, Cordero is the only player in the group that will be earning a “significant salary” (MLBTR projects him to earn $1.5MM), with Hosmer’s contract paid down to the league minimum by the Padres and Dalbec and Casas not yet reaching arbitration.

Lastly, with the Red Sox opting not to tender designated hitter J.D. Martinez a qualifying offer, Boston now has an open spot in their starting lineup. The team is expected to be active in the free agent market, but it is also plausible that they do not make any big exclusive DH addition and instead use the position to situationally rest players. If this is the case, there is a greater chance that all members of the quartet remain on the roster.

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