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Trevor Williams

Pitching Notes: S. Gray, T. Williams, Urena, Phils, Jays, Matz

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“Several teams” have interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. That isn’t at all surprising in the wake of the late-November news that the Reds will at least listen to offers for Gray. General manager Nick Krall suggested later that he isn’t in a hurry to trade Gray away, but it does seem the Reds are in payroll-cutting mode, evidenced by Monday’s trade that sent reliever Raisel Iglesias to the Angels. Gray only has a guaranteed $20MM left on his contract over the next two years, but his performance in 2020 should help make it easier for the Reds to garner a major return in a deal if they do decide to move him. The 31-year-old ended the season with 56 innings of 3.70 ERA/3.05 FIP ball, 11.57 K/9 against 4.18 BB/9, and a 51.1 percent groundball rate.

More on a handful of other pitchers…

  • There are “more than” six teams interested in free-agent righties Trevor Williams and Jose Urena, per Heyman. Both players were cut loose by their former teams last week, but they’ve had success in the past and could be interesting buy-low hurlers in free agency. Williams, 28, struggled mightily in the previous two years but gave the Pirates 321 innings of 3.56 ERA/3.94 FIP pitching from 2017-18. It has been a similar story for the 29-year-old Urena, whom offenses victimized from 2019-20. In the prior two years, though, the ex-Marlin registered a 3.90 ERA/4.68 FIP over 343 2/3 frames.
  • The pitching-needy Phillies “never engaged” righty Charlie Morton, lefty Drew Smyly or reliever Trevor May before they signed free-agent contracts with other teams, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Two of those players – Morton and Smyly – previously played for the Phillies. They could have improved the Phillies’ rotation, while May might have been an asset to a bullpen that is in desperate need of help. Each player landed an eight-figure deal, though, and the Phillies don’t seem eager to hand out large paydays to anyone this offseason.
  • Before the Mets avoided arbitration with Steven Matz on a $5.2MM agreement, they reached out to the Blue Jays to gauge their interest in the southpaw, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. No trade came together, of course. Toronto would have been hard pressed to consider Matz an upgrade for its rotation after he recorded a horrific 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP in 30 2/3 innings last season.

Trevor Williams Elects Free Agency

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Trevor Williams has elected free agency over accepting an assignment to Triple-A, per John Dreker of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter). Williams was designated for assignment last week and largely assumed to choose free agency given his role in the Pirates rotation the last four seasons.

All told, Williams has been a steadying presence in the Buccos rotation since 2017, making a total of 93 starts spanning 522 innings with a 4.34 ERA/4.52 FIP, 7.0 K/9 to 3.0 BB/9, and 2.07 bWAR per 200 frames. The 28-year-old has mostly taken the backseat in the public eye to higher profile arms the likes of Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer, however.

Williams best work came in 2017 and 2018. Last season was a low-point for Williams as he struggled to a 6.18 ERA/6.30 FIP in 55 1/3 innings over 11 starts. His strikeout rate actually increased to a career-high 19.4 K%, but his command wandered as well as his walk rate climbed to 8.3 BB%. The bigger issue for Williams was keeping the ball in the ballpark. He surrendered an ML-leading 15 home runs in 2020 despite the launch angle and exit velocity of opposing hitters decreasing from the previous season.

Pirates Designate Trevor Williams For Assignment

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The Pirates announced Friday that they’ve designated right-hander Trevor Williams and infielder/outfielder Jose Osuna for assignment. That pair of moves allows the team to select infielder Rodolfo Castro and righty Max Kranick to the 40-man roster, protecting both from the Rule 5 Draft.

Williams has been a regular in the Pittsburgh rotation over the past three seasons and enjoyed a strong 2018 campaign, pitching to a 3.11 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 170 2/3 innings. Outside of a few strong starts early in 2020, however, it’s been mostly downhill for the 28-year-old. Over the past two seasons he’s turned in a combined 5.60 ERA and 5.45 FIP in 201 innings. With a projected salary north of $3MM, the Pirates clearly weren’t interested in tendering him a contract for the 2021 season.

The Pirates surely gauged trade interest in Williams before taking the step to designate him for assignment, so it seems unlikely another club will make a move to acquire him now. It’s possible a team could place a waiver claim, but it’s every bit as likely that he’ll simply pass through waivers, at which point he has the service time needed to become a free agent. He’d make for an affordable reclamation project for teams in search of rotation help, and the fact that he still has three years of control remaining via the arbitration process only boosts his appeal if he does indeed reach the market.

Osuna, 27, enjoyed a solid season at the plate in 2019 when he hit .264/.310/.456 with 10 big flies in 285 trips to the plate, but his 82 plate appearances in 2020 resulted in a disastrous .205/.244/.397 output. It’s clear that Osuna possesses some right-handed pop, but his career .241/.280/.430 batting line also shines a light on some severe on-base deficiencies. Osuna has experience at all four corner spots, so perhaps another team will look at him as a bench possibility if he clears waivers. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make a bit more than $1MM in 2021.

NL Central Notes: Betts, Brewers, Venable, Tigers, Pirates

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Could Mookie Betts have blossomed to stardom in a Brewers uniform?  It could have been a reality if former Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin had had his way, as he tried to acquire Betts from the Red Sox in 2013 in exchange for closer Francisco Rodriguez, according to MLB.com’s Adam Berry and Adam McCalvy.  As a fifth-round pick for Boston in the 2011 draft, “Mookie sort of went under the radar if you went by the so-called MLB Pipeline or whatever.  I don’t think at the time he was in their top 10-15 prospects,” Melvin said.  Both the Brewers’ analytics and scouting departments agreed on Betts’ potential, however, so the pitch was made to then-Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, who wisely declined the offer.

Betts was already in the midst of a big season at the A-ball levels in 2013, and Cherington recalls that by season’s end, Betts’ “name was the first one” mentioned by other clubs in trade negotiations.  “Doug Melvin was the first to ask, so I always give Doug credit.  He was the first one to ask for him,” Cherington said.

While Milwaukee fans take a moment to sigh ruefully, let’s look at some other items from around the NL Central…

  • Cubs third base coach Will Venable spoke with the Tigers about their managerial vacancy, NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.  Venable was first cited as a potential candidate for the Tigers job back in September, and Venable has also recently interviewed with the Red Sox about their managerial job.  Beyond the Red Sox and Tigers, “other clubs also have sought the Cubs’ permission to talk with Venable about other, non-managerial openings in their organizations,” Wittenmyer writes.  A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Venable has spent the last three years in Wrigleyville as a special assistant to Theo Epstein, as well as a first base and third base coach.  This is the second straight winter that Venable has been a popular candidate, as the Cubs considered him for their own manager’s job last offseason, and the Astros and Giants also interviewed him for their managerial openings.
  • The Pirates have 19 players eligible for arbitration this offseason, the most of any team in baseball.  At least some of those names won’t be back in Pittsburgh in 2021, as The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel thinks as many as six players could be non-tendered and several others are trade candidates.  Interestingly, Biertempfel cites Trevor Williams as a potential non-tender, on the heels of a season that saw Williams get off to a good start but then struggle to finish with a 6.18 ERA over 55 1/3 innings, with a league-high 15 homers allowed.  Williams received some trade interest from at least one team (the Blue Jays) back in August, so it’s possible Toronto or another club could have some talks with the Pirates before the non-tender deadline.  Williams had a pair of solid seasons in 2017-18 and is entering his age-29 season with two years of team control remaining.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM through the arbitration process this winter.

Blue Jays Reportedly Considering Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl

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The Blue Jays picked up another victory Monday, defeating the Rays by a 6-4 count to improve to 14-13 at almost the halfway point of the season. Few expected the Blue Jays to push for a playoff spot this season, but they’re a mere two games back of wild-card position in the American League. With the trade deadline just a week away, Toronto could wind up as a buyer. Indeed, general manager Ross Atkins said last week that the Jays are aiming to improve their rotation, and Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the team’s “considering” a pair of Pirates right-handers in Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl.

Toronto’s rotation has taken multiple hits in recent days, as Nate Pearson, Matt Shoemaker and Trent Thornton have gone on the injured list. As a result, Hyun Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson are the only sure things in the club’s rotation, though Ryu’s the lone member of the trio who has offered a blend of strong bottom-line production and encouraging peripherals so far this season.

In Williams or Kuhl, the Blue Jays would land a hurler capable of contributing to their rotation beyond this season. Both are controllable for multiple years, but Williams is the more proven of the pair. The 28-year-old was a solid starter for the Pirates from 2017-18 before falling off last year, when he logged 145 2/3 innings of 5.38 ERA/5.12 FIP ball, but seems to be amid a rebound campaign. Williams has made five starts in 2020 and posted 24 1/3 innings of 3.70 ERA/4.21 FIP ball with 8.51 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9. He’s on a prorated $2.825MM salary this year and has another two arbitration-eligible seasons remaining.

Kuhl also has two arb years left after 2020, though he’s currently earning a less expensive salary than Williams (a prorated $840K). The 27-year-old is off to a decent start this season after missing all of 2019 as a result of Tommy John surgery. Kuhl has made five appearances (three starts) in the early going, averaged upward of 94 mph on his fastball and registered a 2.84 ERA/4.98 FIP with 9.0 K/9 and 3.32 BB/9 over 19 innings.

Neither Williams nor Kuhl would command a haul for the Pirates, who are well out of playoff contention. As Morosi notes, though, the Blue Jays could make for a logical trade partner because of the familiarity first-year Bucs general manager Ben Cherington has with Toronto’s farm system. Before taking over the Pirates, Cherington was a promiment part of the Jays’ front office.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Pirates Activate Trevor Williams, Option Mitch Keller

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The Pirates announced today that they have activated right-hander Trevor Williams. To open an active roster spot, the club optioned fellow righty Mitch Keller.

Williams ended up missing just over a month of action with a side strain. Before going on the injured list on May 17, the 27-year-old Williams pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9 in 54 innings. Williams, Joe Musgrove and the currently injured pair of Jordan Lyles and Jameson Taillon have been the Pirates’ most productive starters this season. Lyles, out since June 10 with left hamstring tightness, will make a minor league rehab start Sunday, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets.

Pittsburgh turned to Keller, 23, in hopes the premier prospect would help provide answers for an injury-laden rotation. Instead, Keller has allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits and six walks through 12 innings and three starts thus far. But Keller was fairly effective in a loss to Detroit on Tuesday, when he yielded two earned runs (four total) on four hits and two walks in five innings, and has already notched 15 strikeouts in his big league career.

Pirates’ Trevor Williams Nearing Return

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The Pirates have had to go almost a month without right-hander Trevor Williams, who landed on the injured list May 17 with a right side strain. Williams will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday, though, and could slot back into Pittsburgh’s rotation as early as next Tuesday, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.

Even with the injury factored in, the 27-year-old Williams has perhaps been the Pirates’ best starter in 2019. Before going on the IL, Williams totaled nine starts and 54 innings – good for a six-frame average – and pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9. It continued an underrated run of production for Williams, who combined for a 3.49 ERA/3.68 FIP over 56 starts and 309 1/3 innings from 2017-18.

In addition to Williams’ forthcoming return, the Pirates will soon welcome back fellow righty Jordan Lyles, per Berry. Lyles just hit the IL on the 10th with left hamstring tightness, though it appears he’ll only miss the minimum 10 days. So far in 2019, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the top bargain signings of the offseason. Since inking a one-year, $2.05MM contract during the winter, Lyles has notched a 3.64 ERA/3.63 FIP with 9.23 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and .98 HR/9 in 12 starts and 64 1/3 frames.

Of the 11 pitchers who have started for the Pirates this year, Williams, Lyles, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon are the only ones who have posted average or better numbers. Taillon has been down since the beginning of May with a right flexor strain, however, and Berry reports there’s still no timetable for his return. Meanwhile, Chris Archer has come up well short of expectations, Steven Brault has battled control problems, and opposing offenses hammered high-end prospect Mitch Keller during his first two starts.

Pirates Place Trevor Williams On IL, Outright Jacob Stallings

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The Pirates announced a series of roster moves this evening. Starter Trevor Williams is going on the 10-day injured list with a right side strain, creating a need for pitching reinforcements.

Righty Clay Holmes was recalled. He’ll join Geoff Hartlieb in ascending to the active roster. With a need for one additional active roster spot and one additional 40-man spot, the Bucs optioned righty Richard Rodriguez and outrighted catcher Jacob Stallings (who had been on the IL with a neck injury).

There’s no clear indication yet as to the timeline for Williams. It’s unfortunate timing for both player and team; he was off to a strong start after an excellent 2018 campaign. Through 54 innings this year, Williams carries a 3.33 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.

East Notes: G. Sanchez, Red Sox, Marlins, Pirates, Phillies, O’s

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This season hasn’t gone according to plan for Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, leading Joel Sherman of the New York Post to wonder if the club could target Miami’s J.T. Realmuto or another starting-caliber backstop during the winter. It doesn’t seem that’s going to happen, though, as Yankees general manager Brian Cashman suggested to Sherman that he hasn’t lost any confidence in Sanchez. “If you are asking if [Sanchez] is a championship-caliber catcher moving forward, the answer is yes,” Cashman said. “Despite circumstances that have played out this year, we will stay with it and hopefully be rewarded for it.” After his bat helped propel him to elite catcher status from 2016-17, Sanchez has slashed an underwhelming .184/.280/.404 in 304 plate appearances this season. On the other side, the 25-year-old has drawn plenty of criticism for defensive miscues, including for his work in Oakland this past Wednesday. Still, it’s easy to see why Cashman remains bullish on Sanchez. With a .189 batting average on balls in play and a massive gap between his real wOBA (.298) and expected wOBA (.366), Sanchez has been one of the game’s unluckiest hitters in 2018, and he has still managed 15 home runs and a .221 ISO. Defensively, Sanchez’s issues may be a tad overblown, evidenced in part by the above-average marks he has earned from StatCorner.

More from the East Coast…

  • Red Sox reliever Matt Barnes is out indefinitely with left hip inflammation, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports. With Boston all but locked into the top seed in the American League, Barnes’ loss isn’t much of a blow now. But it could be if the injury continues to linger into the playoffs, as Barnes leads Red Sox relievers in holds (25) and strikeouts per nine (14.19). He has also thrown the second-most innings (58 1/3) of anyone in Boston’s bullpen and logged an impressive 3.39 ERA/2.71 FIP.
  • With righty Trevor Williams on a roll for the Pirates, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald revisits the 2015 trade in which the Marlins sent the hurler to Pittsburgh for fellow righty Richard Mitchell and the right to hire pitching guru Jim Benedict from the Bucs. Williams ranked among the Marlins’ top prospects at the time, making the deal look good for Pittsburgh. It looks even better now, given that the 26-year-old Williams has allowed a combined four earned runs over his past nine starts – a 54 2/3-inning span – to improve his ERA/FIP to 3.15/4.16 across 148 2/3 frames this season. Considering Williams’ current performance and his affordable team control through 2022, not to mention what the Marlins got in the trade, losing him looks rather regrettable for the Fish. Former Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria expected Benedict to fix the Marlins’ pitching staff, per Spencer. It didn’t happen, however, and Benedict’s now with the Cubs. Mitchell, meanwhile, was a non-prospect who never threw a pitch with the Miami organization and hasn’t played professionally since the end of his Pirates tenure.
  • Phillies outfielder Roman Quinn broke one of the toes on his right foot, but it’s an injury he can play through, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia was among those to report. Quinn suffered the injury on a hit by pitch on Wednesday and hasn’t played since, though manager Gabe Kapler said the Phillies “have every assurance that this injury is a tolerance issue and when he’s ready to play, he’s good to go.” Nevertheless, as Salisbury details, it adds to a laundry list of injuries for the 25-year-old Quinn – who has still recorded good numbers since debuting last season. Over 153 major league PAs, including 84 this year, Quinn has hit .307/.371/.455 (121 wRC+) with 12 stolen bases.
  • The Orioles plan to re-sign pending free-agent catcher Martin Cervenka, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Cervenka joined the Orioles via the Giants in the minor league phase of last year’s Rule 5 draft, and has since amassed “lots of supporters” within the O’s organization, Kubatko writes. The 26-year-old may even debut in the majors’ next season, as Kubatko adds that Cervenka could have a shot to emerge as the Orioles’ backup catcher in 2019. In doing so, he’d become the first native of the Czech Republic to ever play in the majors. The highest level Cervenka has reached to this point is Double-A, where he put up a .258/.317/.457 line with 15 home runs in 375 PAs this season.
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