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Trevor Williams

Nationals Activate Trevor Williams

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September 20: The Nationals announced today that Williams has officially been reinstated, as expected. In corresponding moves, they optioned right-hander Zach Brzykcy and transferred Adon to the 60-day IL.

September 18: The Nationals are planning to reinstate Trevor Williams from the 60-day injured list on Friday, tweets Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The right-hander will get the start at Wrigley Field in his first MLB outing since the end of May. They’ll need to create a 40-man roster spot but could move Alex Call or Joan Adon to the 60-day IL if they don’t anticipate either player returning this season.

That would position Williams to make a pair of starts before the end of the season. It’s a bigger development for the pitcher than it is for the team. Washington is only trying to play spoiler at this point, but Williams is an impending free agent. The 32-year-old has been out for more than three months after being diagnosed with a flexor strain in his throwing arm. There’s only so much he can do in two starts to answer teams’ questions about his durability. That said, getting back on the mound and showing the caliber of stuff he had early in the season is certainly preferable to ending the year on the shelf.

The injury cut short one of the best stretches of Williams’ career. He worked to a 2.22 ERA in 56 2/3 innings covering 11 starts. He punched out an average 21% of batters faced while getting ground-balls at a 46% clip. Williams isn’t overpowering but he throws a lot of strikes and had dramatically changed his home run fortunes. He led the National League with 34 home runs allowed en route to a 5.55 earned run average over 30 starts last season. He’d surrendered just two longballs (0.32 per nine innings) through the first couple months this year.

There was some level of luck with Williams’ early-season results. He probably wouldn’t have maintained an ace-caliber ERA over a full season. Williams had clearly taken a step forward relative to last year, though, an improvement that coincided with an increased reliance on his breaking stuff at the expense of his four-seam fastball. The injury also robbed the rebuilding Nationals of a chance to flip Williams at the deadline. He won’t be a candidate for a qualifying offer, so they wouldn’t get any kind of compensation if he walks in free agency.

Washington has a rotation consisting of Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz and Patrick Corbin. Zuckerman notes that they’ll go to a six-man staff once Williams returns through season’s end. Corbin is playing out the final couple weeks of his $140MM free agent deal. The other four pitchers are under club control for an extended time.

Each of Irvin, Gore, Parker and Herz has turned in an ERA between 4.07 and 4.44 on the season. That group has tailed off in the second half, though, and none of them look like budding top-of-the-rotation arms. Gore probably has the highest ceiling, but he has yet to truly put everything together over an extended stretch. With Josiah Gray likely to miss next season and Cade Cavalli’s injury history, the Nats need to add at least one high-end starter if they hope to compete for a playoff spot in 2025.

Nationals Select Darren Baker

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September 1: The Nationals have officially announced the selection of Baker’s contract. Right-hander Trevor Williams was transferred to the 60-day IL to make room for Baker on the 40-man roster, and righty Zach Brzykcy has been recalled from the minors to fill the additional pitching roster spot created by today’s roster expansion. Brzykcy’s first appearance will be his MLB debut. The righty’s impending call-up was firs reported by Talk Nats.

August 31: The Nationals are planning to select the contract of second baseman/left fielder Darren Baker on Sunday, according to the Talk Nats feed (X link).  Some space will need to be cleared on Washington’s 40-man roster, but a corresponding move on the active roster might not be necessary, since rosters expand from 26 to 28 players on Sunday.

A 10th-round pick for the Nats in the 2021 draft, Baker isn’t considered one of Washington’s top 30 prospects by either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline.  However, he has been red-hot at the plate in August, building his season-long slash line to .285/.348/.340 over 483 plate appearances with Triple-A Rochester.  While he doesn’t offer much power, Baker makes a lot of contact and is a threat on the basepaths, with 38 steals in 43 attempts this season.

Baker has primarily played second base and left field during his minor league career, but might not get a ton of action at either position since Luis Garcia Jr. and James Wood (both left-handed batters, like Baker) are established in everyday roles.  Baker has played a bit of center field so he could get some platoon work up the middle with Jacob Young, and he could join the DH mix with the likes of Juan Yepez, Andres Chaparro, and veteran Joey Gallo.

Baker will be making his MLB debut whenever he appears in a game, but the 25-year-old is no stranger to the big leagues.  The son of legendary manager Dusty Baker, Darren became known to fans when he was just three years old, and working as a batboy for the father’s Giants team during the 2002 World Series.  During Game 5, Baker was running towards home plate to pick up Kenny Lofton’s bat after a two-run triple, and might have been run over by baserunner David Bell if J.T. Snow hadn’t quickly grabbed the youngster out of harm’s way after Snow scored earlier on the play.

That incident led to the league instituting a rule that all batboys had to be at least 14 years old, and thus “the Darren Baker rule” has already ensured Baker some level of notoriety within baseball history.  Now, he can create a new name for himself by officially becoming a Major League player, and continuing the Baker family’s on-field legacy in the game.  (Current fans may know Dusty Baker best as a manager, but the elder Baker was a two-time All-Star and former NLCS MVP during an outstanding 19-year playing career.)

Nationals Preparing To Be Deadline Sellers

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The Nationals have been on the periphery of the postseason picture for much of the season but are preparing to approach the trade deadline as a seller, per Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Washington will be open to offers both on potential free agents and players signed/controlled for only one additional season, per the report. The Nats’ group of impending free agents include outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Patrick Corbin, righty reliever Dylan Floro, struggling slugger Joey Gallo and the currently injured Trevor Williams. Of even more interest will be outfielder Lane Thomas, setup man Hunter Harvey and closer Kyle Finnegan, each of whom is controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration.

The vibe in D.C. is high at the moment following the debut of top-ranked prospect James Wood and the All-Star selection of shortstop CJ Abrams. But Washington has dropped 11 of its past 15 games to fall seven under .500. At 16.5 games back in the NL East, there’s no hope of surging back to the front of the division, and in the Wild Card chase, the Nats are 5.5 games back of the third spot with six teams to pass in order to get into the fray.

The Nationals are already three years into a rebuilding process that kicked off in 2021 with trades of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (among many others) and continued into the summer of 2022 with the deadline blockbuster that shipped Juan Soto to San Diego in exchange for a package of five young players headlined by Abrams, Wood and current staff leader MacKenzie Gore. Selling off some short-term pieces at this year’s deadline isn’t a sign that said plan has faltered or a setback necessarily; for much of the season, the Nats appeared ahead of schedule but are now settling into the type of position most expected them to occupy heading into the 2024 campaign.

Among Washington’s slate of rental players, Winker stands as the most productive healthy option. He’s back in vintage form after a pair of seasons ruined by knee and neck injuries that both required surgery in the 2022-23 offseason. In 337 trips to the plate, the former Reds, Brewers and Mariners outfielder is hitting .268/.382/.436 with ten home runs and a career-high 12 steals. Winker’s 13.6% walk rate is more than five percentage points ahead of the league average, and he’s striking out at a manageable 22.3% clip.

Winker has long had platoon issues, but the Nats have given him 80 plate appearances against southpaws this season and he’s held his own, hitting .250/.344/.363. It should be noted that his small-sample production against lefties is aided by a bulky .358 average on balls in play and comes in spite of a huge 29% strikeout rate (10 points higher than his mark against righties). Winker probably can’t be expected to continue his output against lefties, but he’s punishing righties just as he always has when healthy: .275/.397/.465 with nine of his 10 home runs and six of his 17 doubles. Winker signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary, making him an ultra-affordable option for any team seeking a quality left-handed bat to add to its DH/outfield mix.

Floro, 33, is in the midst of a nice rebound season. He’s on a one-year, $2.25MM deal and has produced 43 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a couple percentage points shy of average, but his 6.4% walk rate is a couple points better than par. Floro sports a strong 50.4% grounder rate as well. However, he’s yet to allow even one home run this season, and it’s not sustainable for any pitcher to see every single one of his fly-balls stay in the park. Metrics like SIERA (3.50) and xFIP (3.45), which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, view Floro as a solid arm but not the dominant force his raw ERA might suggest. He should still draw plenty of interest as an affordable veteran with some track record.

Corbin’s $35MM salary is going to nullify any trade interest unless the Nats are willing to pay down almost the entire sum. The first season of his six-year, $140MM contract with the Nats went beautifully, as Corbin helped lead a deep rotation and stepped up as a key postseason arm en route to Washington’s Cinderella World Series run. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA since, including a 5.49 mark in 100 frames this year.

That said, the veteran has been pitching well of late. Corbin sports a 4.53 ERA dating back to Memorial Day weekend and has delivered a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 frames over his past five starts. A team just looking for some veteran innings in the five spot could look at Corbin as a cheap solution if the Nats eat most or all of the remaining salary.

If healthy, Williams might stand as the clearest and most coveted rental piece the Nats have to offer. He made 11 starts, and though he was averaging just five frames per appearances, Williams logged a pristine 2.22 ERA with a solid 21% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. As with Floro, he’s been extremely fortunate with home runs (just two in 56 2/3 frames), and a solid but unspectacular K-BB profile points to some ERA regression if that home run trend doesn’t continue. But Williams is in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and would be an affordable rotation option. He’s been out since early June with a strained muscle in his forearm.

Also on the injured list is Gallo, who was struggling at career-worst levels prior to a hamstring strain. He’s hitting .164/.285/.321 with a glaring 43% strikeout rate and five homers in 165 plate appearances. Between that line and Gallo’s injury, it’s hard to envision any trade value even if he’s healthy enough to return before July 30. He’s more a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.

Looking to the Nationals’ more controllable pieces, Thomas and the bullpen duo of Finnegan and Harvey will draw wide-reaching interest. A deal for Thomas could be difficult to line up, depending on how the Nats price him. At last year’s deadline, Washington was valuing Thomas as an everyday outfielder, whereas many other clubs were viewing him more as a potential platoon piece.

That perception from other clubs won’t be different in 2024. Thomas has never hit righties much but is slashing a dismal .208/.262/.343 against them in 2024. Conversely, he’s always hit well against southpaws and is even better than his career line in 2024, hitting .338/.407/.563. Thomas is an absolute menace to southpaw pitchers, and he’s perhaps deceptively fast. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile of MLB players in average sprint speed, and Thomas has already swiped 21 bags — though he’s also been caught seven times. He’s making $5.45MM this season and will be owed one more raise in arbitration this winter before hitting free agency post-2025.

Both Finnegan and Harvey are on track for free agency in the 2025-26 offseason as well. Finnegan has saved 23 games and posted a tidy 2.17 ERA in 37 1/3 frames. He’s averaged a hefty 97.4 mph on his heater while recording a 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 42.7% ground-ball rate. After a rough start in terms of his command, Finnegan has reined in the walks, yielding only a 5.8% rate over his past 32 innings.

Harvey was arguably even more appealing for much of the season, though a recent rough patch could have altered that. His $2.325MM salary is less than half Finnegan’s $5.1MM mark, he throws even harder, and his strikeout/walk/ground-ball rates were the better of the two for the bulk of the current campaign.

Some recent struggles have ballooned Harvey’s ERA to 4.40 — more than two runs higher than the 2.08 mark he carried into the month of June. He’s been tagged for 14 runs in his past 12 2/3 innings. In that time, he’s walked 9.1% of his opponents (more than double his rate over the first two months) and been tagged for a grisly 2.13 homers per nine frames. For a pitcher with a lengthy injury history — Harvey still has just 166 2/3 career innings despite debuting in 2019 — that could be a particular concern among bullpen-needy clubs. But the affordable salary, extra year of control, 98.1 mph average heater and K-BB profile should all generate interest.

One other name to consider is journeyman righty Derek Law, who’s posted a 3.35 ERA in 53 2/3 innings of relief already and is controllable through 2025. Law has fanned 21.2% of opponents against a 6.2% walk rate but has been wildly inconsistent dating back to his 2016 debut campaign. He’s earning $1.5MM this season and could be a sensible middle-innings arm for a team looking at low-cost means of deepening the ’pen.

Nats Notes: Deadline, Winker, Hassell, Wood, Crews

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The Nationals have received trade interest in veterans Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Lane Thomas but haven’t considered dealing any veteran pieces just yet, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Washington, even with a sub-.500 record (35-36), is tied with the Padres for the final Wild Card spot in the National League at the moment and has not yet made a determination on how to approach this year’s trade deadline, Morosi adds.

It’s sensible for teams to inquire with the Nats, who entered the season as a playoff long-shot after spending the past two years in a rebuilding pattern. The Nats have outplayed expectations thanks to myriad factors (e.g. breakouts from MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams; a stronger-than-expected debut for lefty Mitchell Parker; a big step forward by CJ Abrams; a rebound by Jesse Winker). Those positive developments, plus widespread mediocrity in the National League, have thrust the Nationals into postseason conversations in mid-June. Williams’ recent flexor strain is a big damper on the team’s solid showing this year, but it’s only natural that GM Mike Rizzo and his staff aren’t yet ready to concede that they’ll be deadline sellers.

The next six weeks will be pivotal for the Nats. Holding the status quo or even playing winning ball between now and July 30 could push the Nationals to function as buyers. They may not be keen on dealing prospects for short-term rentals in a season like this, but targeting some names with multiple years of club control remaining feels plausible. On the other side of the coin, if the Nats fall a few games back in the standings and/or incur further injury problems of note, then listening on short-term veterans would be far likelier.

All three of the names listed by Morosi are controlled only through the 2025 season. Finnegan and Harvey would both draw widespread interest among contenders, given the perennial demand for bullpen help among playoff hopefuls. Harvey, in particular, has been dominant with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate en route to a 2.75 ERA. Finnegan leads the team with 20 saves and a terrific 1.78 ERA, though he’s benefited hugely from a microscopic .157 BABIP and a sky-high 94.7% strand rate — neither of which feels sustainable long-term.

Thomas drew interest at last summer’s trade deadline, but he’s likely someone the Nats value more than many of the teams seeking to acquire him. Washington reportedly priced him like an everyday player on last summer’s trade market — which is also how they use him — but Thomas carries enormous platoon splits and could be seen by other clubs as a player best deployed in a timeshare. He’s batting .327/.390/.588 against lefties this season (166 wRC+) but has an awful .196/.256/.330 output against righties (65 wRC+). His career splits aren’t quite that dramatic but are quite stark: .305/.364/.524 versus left-handers (141 wRC+) compared to .223/.290/.392 versus right-handers (86 wRC+).

The next few weeks will be pivotal for Rizzo and his lieutenants as they chart a course for this year’s deadline planning. If the Nats fall several games out of the race, all three of the names listed by Morosi could feasibly hit the market, and they likely wouldn’t be alone. Third baseman Nick Senzel and reliever Derek Law are also only controlled through 2025 as well. Veterans Dylan Floro and Eddie Rosario are free agents at the end of the current season, as are the aforementioned Williams and Winker.

Speaking of Winker, he had an injury scare over the weekend when he felt knee pain after taking a big turn at first base, slamming on the brakes and (unsuccessfully) diving back to the bag. He exited the game two innings later. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that Winker underwent an MRI that thankfully came back clean. He’s listed as day-to-day for now.

Winker, 30, isn’t hitting for much power this season but is drawing walks at his typically lofty rate (13.4%) and has made significantly better contact than he did over the past two seasons in a pair of down years with the Mariners and Brewers. He’s batting .265/.378/.390 with six homers and ten doubles through 268 plate appearances. Like Thomas, he’s better utilized in a platoon setting but has been an everyday player in Washington. Winker, to his credit, has a roughly league-average .239/.345/.338 slash in 84 plate appearances against fellow lefties, but he’s a career .210/.325/.338 hitter (89 wRC+) in left-on-left situations, compared to .279/.383/.467 (130 wRC+) against righties.

Eventual trades of Winker, Rosario and/or Thomas could open the door for any number of Nationals farmhands at the big league level. One near-MLB-ready option, Robert Hassell III, doesn’t seem as though he’ll be an option anytime soon, however. The Nats placed Hassell on the minor league injured list last week, and TalkNats.com reports that he’s dealing with another wrist injury and that the team plans to proceed cautiously. Hassell has had multiple wrist injuries in the past, including a broken hamate bone that necessitated surgery.

One of the most notable prospects acquired in the Nationals’ blockbuster trade of Juan Soto to the Padres, Hassell opened the season with a .278/.369/.369 slash in 215 plate appearances at the Double-A level. Those numbers don’t jump out, but they’re about 14% better than average in his currently pitcher-friendly environment, by measure of wRC+. They’re also a sizable step forward from the .225/.316/.324 batting line recorded by Hassell at the same minor league level last year (476 plate appearances).

Both Hassell and uber-prospect James Wood are on the minor league injured list at the moment — the latter due to a hamstring strain. Wood, in particular, could be an option to make his big league debut later this summer, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying on X today that Wood could return to game action this week. But Hassell could force his way into that conversation as well if he’s cleared to return sooner than later and continues to show improvement over last season. His prospect stock has taken a notable hit since the time of that swap, but he’s maintained strong plate discipline (11.6% walk rate) and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s alarming 31.9% to a far more palatable 21.4% in 2024.

Dylan Crews will also be in the mix, as he’s being promoted to Triple-A, per @PROducerIOTB on X. That’s come on the heels of Crews hitting .274/.343/.446 in Double-A this year while stealing 15 bases.

Nationals Place Trevor Williams On Injured List, Recall DJ Herz For MLB Debut

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2:20pm: Williams spoke to the Nationals beat and said while there’s no firm timetable for his return, he’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for at least the next two weeks (X link via MASNsport.com’s Mark Zuckerman). That effectively rules out any hope of a minimum 15-day stint on the injured list for the righty.

11:10am: The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve placed right-hander Trevor Williams on the 15-day injured list due to a strained flexor muscle in his right forearm. Left-hander DJ Herz has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester and will make his MLB debut when he starts tonight’s game.

Williams is in the midst of a career year at age 32, having pitched 56 1/3 innings of 2.22 ERA ball out of the Washington rotation. He’s achieved those results in spite of a below-average 21% strikeout rate and benefited from both a .270 average on balls in play and minuscule 3.3% homer-to-flyball rate — all of which signal the potential for regression. Nonetheless, Williams’ performance thus far has been a major driving factor behind the Nationals exceeding preseason expectations and hanging around an NL Wild Card race that is largely populated by sub-.500 clubs at the moment.

The Nats didn’t provide a timetable for Williams’ return. That he’s dealing with a muscle strain as opposed to a damaged flexor tendon is perhaps a silver lining, but that doesn’t preclude a notable absence in and of itself. Teammate Josiah Gray is dealing with the same injury and has been on the shelf for nearly two months at this point. All injuries cases are different, and we don’t know how the placement and severity of Williams’ strain compares to that of Gray, but Gray’s injury is evidence that Williams is hardly assured a swift return to the mound.

The timing of the injury is particularly poor for both the team and Williams himself. If Washington were to hang around and make a Wild Card push, one would presume a healthy Williams would play a notable role. Even if he saw his pristine ERA regress toward the vicinity of his 3.97 SIERA, he’d still be a useful veteran presence on the staff. And if the Nats were to fall well out of the postseason picture, it’s easy to envision Williams becoming a sought-after trade chip. His injury throws a wrench into both scenarios.

On a personal level, it’s also poorly timed for the pitcher himself. Wiilliams is playing out the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and is slated to reach free agency at season’s end. He landed that $13MM guarantee in the 2022-23 offseason on the heels of a year spent primarily in a swingman role with the Mets. Had Williams reached the market a second time on the heels of a two-year run as a starter — the second season being a career-best performance — he’d have been in line for a more substantial payday, even heading into his age-33 season. It’s still possible he could return in a relatively timely manner, pitch well and reach that endgame, but the injury muddies his chances of doing so.

Turning to the 23-year-old Herz, he’ll get his first big league start less than a year after being acquired in the trade that sent Jeimer Candelario from the Nats to the Cubs. The 2019 eighth-rounder has had mixed results in the minors this year. On the one hand, his 3.75 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate in Rochester are both strong marks. On the other, Herz has averaged just four innings per start and walked an astounding 19% of his opponents. Command has always been a weakness for the 6’2″ lefty; he’s never walked fewer than 13% of his opponents in a full season.

The Nats have already had one lefty make his MLB debut and greatly exceed expectations this season. They’ll hope that Herz can follow in the footsteps of teammate Mitchell Parker in that regard. Given the state of the rebuilding Nationals and the lack of other upper-minors pitching depth, Herz could have a fairly long runway to prove himself in the event that Williams and/or Gray remain sidelined for a significant period. Top prospect Cade Cavalli stands as one potential alternative, but he’s being monitored carefully in his return from 2023 Tommy John surgery. Prospect Jackson Rutledge and last season’s Rule 5 pick, Thaddeus Ward, are both on the 40-man roster in Rochester but both have ERAs north of 6.00 in Triple-A this season.

The Hot Start Of Trevor Williams Raises Interesting Questions

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Coming into 2024, Trevor Williams was something of an afterthought on the Nationals’ roster. But six weeks into the 2024 season, he has emerged as one of the more interesting members of the club, thanks to his utter dominance so far this year.

Entering the campaign, most baseball fans outside of the D.C. area probably weren’t thinking of Williams at all. Fans of the Nats were probably more excited about young players like MacKenzie Gore, James Wood or Dylan Crews. Williams was a veteran stopgap who didn’t draw much attention. He had some serviceable years in the past but struggled over 2019 and 2020, getting bumped into a swing role in 2021 and 2022.

The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a two-year deal going into 2023 with a $13MM guarantee. They had traded away many of their most established players and needed a veteran innings eater. Patrick Corbin’s contract was aging incredibly poorly while young guys like Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli had not yet been fully established at the big league level.

The first year of the Williams deal was quite unremarkable. He did take the ball 30 times and chew up 144 1/3 innings, but with a 5.55 earned run average. His 8% walk rate was around league average but he struck out just 16.8% of batters faced and allowed 34 home runs.

After that performance, he didn’t even seem to be guaranteed a rotation spot on the 2024 club. Back in December, manager Dave Martinez said that Williams “right now is our fourth or fifth starter,” per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That seemed to leave the door open to further additions bumping him out of the starting staff, but those never came. The Nats had a fairly quiet winter, which left Williams to open in the rotation alongside Gore, Gray, Corbin and Jake Irvin.

So far, that’s working out great for both Williams and the Nats. Through seven starts and 36 2/3 innings, he has just a 1.96 ERA. His 21.1% strikeout rate is still a bit below average but is a big jump from last year. He’s getting ground balls at a 49% rate and hasn’t yet allowed a home run this season.

There are some caveats to keep in mind here. Seven starts is obviously a small sample size and it’s incredibly unlikely he can continue posting results this strong. His .270 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate are both a bit on the fortunate side, as his his 0% home run per fly ball rate. His 2.50 FIP and 4.04 SIERA both suggest he hasn’t been quite as good as the 1.96 ERA might make you think.

Perhaps this is just a lucky stretch and regression is just around the corner. This kind of strong performance in a small sample isn’t unprecedented with Williams. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his most dominant stretch of seven starts came with the Pirates in 2018. He finished that season particularly strong, with a 2.33 ERA in July, 1.16 in August and then 2.20 in September/October.

But there are also reasons for optimism, particularly since Williams changed his pitch mix by adding a sweeper. According to Statcast, he first threw the pitch last year but only 73 times, 2.8% of his pitches thrown with five other offerings coming in more frequently. But he’s up to 101 sweepers this year, a 17.9% clip. His four-seamer is still his go-to at 205 thrown, but the changeup is second at 103, meaning the sweeper is neck-and-neck with the change for his primary offspeed offering.

The results have been excellent so far, with opponents hitting just .167 against the sweeper and whiffing at a huge 41.2% rate. Even the Pitching Ninja is taking notice. By throwing more sweepers, he’s been able to threw fewer four-seamers and curveballs. As mentioned, the four-seamer is still is primary pitch, but he’s dropped the usage from 43.2% to 36.4%, while his curveball has gone from 6.9% down to just 0.5% this year. Of the 34 home runs he allowed last year, 21 of them were four-seamers and three more were curveballs, leading to respective slugging percentages of .563 and .629. Throwing them less was surely wise and has been paying off.

Changing up the mix seems to be throwing hitters off. Williams had a 10.2% barrel rate last year that is down to just 4% here in 2024. Last year’s average launch angle of 15.9 degrees is down to 11.5, which aligns with his increased ground ball rate and his refusal to let the ball leave the park. His results on his changeup and sinker have also been better than last year, perhaps due to the sweeper giving hitters something else to think about.

Again, regression is likely coming because he’s had a bit of luck so far. The league will also surely adjust to his new repertoire, which should lessen his ability to flummox batters with his arsenal. But even if he steps back from this ace-like performance a bit, it could still have impacts for him and the club.

Williams will be heading back out to free agency this winter and improved numbers will naturally lead to more interest and more earning power. His contract will be limited by his age, since he’ll be going into his age-33 season. But pitchers can still find decent money at that age or older, as shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker.

Williams won’t be able to get near established aces like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. But Seth Lugo’s trajectory isn’t terribly dissimilar from that of Williams. Lugo was bumped from starting into a relief role for a while, spent a year with the Padres re-establishing himself as a legit starter and then secured a three-year, $45MM deal with the Royals going into his age-34 season. Tyler Anderson got a three-year, $39MM pact after a breakout in his age-32 campaign while guys like Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb secured two-year deals between $20MM and $37MM.

Of that group, only Anderson and Eovaldi received qualifying offers. Stroman and Cobb received QOs earlier their careers and were no longer eligible, and Quintana wasn’t eligible prior to signing his Mets deal since he was traded in the prior season. But Lugo, Martinez, Stripling and Maeda were allowed to hit free agency without a QO. That perhaps suggests Williams is a long shot to get one himself, even if he continues putting up good numbers, but Anderson’s situation shows it’s at least something the Nats may consider. Anderson had a 4.62 career ERA before breaking out with the Dodgers in 2022. He posted a 2.57 ERA, got the QO and still found his aforementioned three-year deal from the Angels, netting the Dodgers an extra draft pick.

Putting over $20MM on the table for a guy they just signed to $13MM over two years, a deal they undoubtedly regretted halfway through, would be a big risk for the Nats. But they also have almost nothing on the books thanks to their ongoing rebuild. Corbin’s ill-fated deal is finally done after 2024 and Strasburg’s retirement allowed the club to pay out the remainder of his deal with deferred payments. Joey Gallo’s deal has a buyout on a mutual option. Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year extension with a low average annual value, and that’s it in terms of future commitments.

Of course, the qualifying offer decision will only have to be made if he lasts all year with Washington. The club is currently 18-18 and still in the thick of the National League Wild Card standings, but the Nats have a -8 run differential and are just 5-9 against teams that are above .500. Based on their poor results in past seasons and the fact that they weren’t really expected to compete this year, it’s entirely possible that they slip back in the coming months.

If that happens, then it’s far more likely that the Nats simply trade Williams for whatever he can fetch at the deadline. The return likely wouldn’t be huge for a 32-year-old rental, but pitching is always in demand and he will find interest if he continues pitching well. That scenario would be good for Williams, allowing him to pitch for a team in contention while also taking the QO off the table.

There are still many ways this could play out and many factors that will play a role in the path forward. Can Williams keep this up or will the league adjust? Will the warm summer air simply allow more balls to cruise over the fence? Will the Nats hover around the Wild Card race or will they fall out of it? Time will provide the answers to those questions, but the fact that Williams is even this interesting is quite remarkable, considering where things stood about six months ago.

Nationals Place Paolo Espino On Release Waivers

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The Nationals announced a series of roster moves today as they reinstated right-hander Trevor Williams from the bereavement list, reinstated catcher Israel Pineda from the 60-day injured list, and optioned him to Double-A. In a corresponding move, right-hander Paolo Espino was placed on unconditional release waivers.

Williams signed a two-year, $13MM deal with the Nationals ahead of the 2023 on the heels of a solid season as a swingman for the Mets last year, when he posted a 3.21 ERA and 3.88 FIP in 89 1/3 innings of work. In a full-time rotation role this season, Williams hasn’t been able to replicate that success, as he’s struggled to a 4.72 ERA and 5.55 FIP in 22 starts. Among pitchers who have recorded at least 100 innings this season, Williams’ 0.4 fWAR ranks ahead of only Michael Kopech of the White Sox and Martin Perez of the Rangers.

While Williams has struggled as a full-time starter this season, the former second round pick has previous success as a rotation piece dating back to 2018, when he posted a 3.11 ERA in 170 1/3 innings of work with the Pirates. He’ll look to get back on track through the remainder of the 2023 campaign with an eye toward 2024, where he figures to continue as a rotation option for Washington alongside the likes of Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Patrick Corbin.

Pineda, 22, has just four games of big league experience under his belt and has missed the entire season to this point due to a fractured ring finger and an oblique strain. He’s ranked as the club’s 23rd best prospect per MLB Pipeline and 17th per Fangraphs. While Pineda could be ready for a longer-team big league role as soon as next season, the Nationals are fairly well set up at the major league level behind the plate with a tandem of youngsters in the form of Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams.

Espino, 36, had been on the 15-day IL since mid-July with a flexor strain. He pitched just four innings with the big league Nationals this season, during which he allowed 11 runs on 14 hits and three walks while striking out three. Prior to his disastrous stint with the club earlier this season, Espino had spent the last two seasons as a fixture of Washington’s pitching staff, throwing 223 innings across 77 appearances (38 starts) to a 4.56 ERA and 4.70 FIP. Going forward, Espino will likely have to look for a new minor league deal as he looks for a new team to rehab his current injury with.

Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?

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This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.

One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.

The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.

Rental Players

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.

The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.

The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.

The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Dominic Smith

Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.

Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.

Victor Robles

Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.

He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.

Trevor Williams

Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.

Longer-Term Players

Lane Thomas

Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.

He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.

Hunter Harvey

Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.

Kyle Finnegan

Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.

Tanner Rainey

Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.

Ildemaro Vargas

Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Joey Meneses

Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.

His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.

____________________________

The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.

Trevor Williams Expected To Open Season In Nationals’ Rotation

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The Nationals inked former division rival Trevor Williams to a two-year contract last week, reportedly guaranteeing him $13MM. The right-hander had worked in a swing capacity with the Mets, starting nine of his 30 outings in 2022.

Williams has an extended pre-2022 track record of starting, however, and he’s expected to move back into that role in the nation’s capital. Speaking with reporters yesterday, Williams said the Nats have told him he’ll get an opportunity to start next year (via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). The former Pirate acknowledged he’d been hoping to find a rotation spot during his foray into free agency.

The 2022 campaign was a strong one for Williams, who tallied 89 2/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball. He struck out a roughly average 22.6% of opponents with a strong 6.2% walk rate. The 30-year-old fared better in relief, working to a 2.47 ERA while holding opponents to a .247/.311/.371 mark across 51 frames. He was solid but less effective as a starter, allowing 4.19 earned runs per nine with a .260/.302/.467 slash line allowed. Williams’ control was strong in both roles. He missed more bats and allowed fewer homers while working out of the bullpen, however.

Williams occupied a full-time rotation spot in Pittsburgh for awhile, starting 25+ games each season from 2017-19 and all 11 of his outings during the shortened 2020 campaign. He started 12 of 13 appearances with the Cubs in 2021 before being dealt to the Mets at the deadline. Over that four-plus year stretch, Williams put up a 4.38 ERA with an 18.7% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk percentage in 105 starts.

Washington certainly has room in the rotation, with virtually no certainty on the staff. Washington starters had a ghastly 5.97 ERA in 2022. That was easily the worst in the majors, three-quarters of a run higher than the 29th-placed Rockies (5.22 ERA). Aníbal Sánchez was remarkably the only Nationals pitcher with multiple starts and an ERA below 5.00. His 4.28 mark was paired with subpar underlying numbers, and he’s now a free agent who’ll be 39 by Opening Day.

Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli all figure to have the inside track on starting jobs if healthy. They’re all young arms with significant upside who the organization hopes can develop into key pieces from their ongoing rebuild. Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg are on hand and would surely have Opening Day rotation jobs based on their career bodies of work, but neither has been productive since 2019.

Corbin has remained healthy and at least taken the ball every fifth day, but Strasburg’s career has been thrown off track by continued issues with thoracic outlet syndrome. Gore has still yet to pitch as a National after missing the entire second half due to elbow inflammation, while Cavalli went down with season-ending shoulder inflammation after making his MLB debut in August. Given the health uncertainty with players like Strasburg, Gore and Cavalli, it’s little surprise to hear Williams is ticketed for rotation work to start the year.

Nationals Sign Trevor Williams To Two-Year Deal

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TODAY: The Nationals officially announced Williams’ deal.

DECEMBER 9, 9:22am: Williams will be guaranteed a total of $13MM, Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).

8:54am: The Nationals are in agreement on a two-year contract with free-agent righty Trevor Williams, reports Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Williams is represented by John Boggs & Associates.

Williams, 31 in April, has spent the past season and a half with the Mets, pitching to a 3.17 ERA in 122 innings while splitting his time between the rotation (12 starts) and bullpen (28 appearances). He’d previously spent the bulk of his career as a starting pitcher, highlighted by a 31-start, 170 2/3-inning season of 3.11 ERA ball with the Pirates back in 2018. However, Williams has yet to consistently sustain that level of success over the course of multiple seasons.

For instance, Williams followed up that strong 2018 season with a 5.38 ERA in 26 starts in 2019, and he endured similar woes in the shortened 2020 season (6.18 ERA, 55 1/3 innings). That said, Williams has been a source of average or better innings in the other four full seasons of his career, dating back to 2017. In all, he owns a career 4.27 ERA and 4.40 FIP in a span of 715 1/3 Major League innings. He’s also coming off a career-high 22.6% strikeout rate and career-low 6.2% walk rate with the Mets in 2022.

Williams works with a traditional starter’s repertoire, leaning primarily on a four-seam fastball and complementing that with a sinker, slider and changeup that were all used at roughly equal levels in 2022 (plus a much more seldom-used curveball). None of those pitches generate huge spin, and none but the slider come with standout whiff rates. Still, Williams regularly excels at limiting hard contact, with above-average marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate throughout the majority of his career to this point.

Zuckerman suggests that Williams could well end up in the Nationals’ rotation, but that’s not yet set in stone, and a return to the swingman role in which he’s thrived with the division-rival Mets is possible. At present, the Nats have a pair of albatross contracts atop the rotation in Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and that pair will be followed by some combination of Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli and perhaps Williams. Given Strasburg’s avalanche of recent injury troubles, plus the uncertainty surrounding inexperienced arms like Gore and Cavalli, there ought to be ample rotation innings available even if Williams initially begins the season in the bullpen.

Williams is the second free-agent addition of the winter for the Nats, who also inked corner infielder Jeimer Candelario to a one-year, $5MM contract last month. Washington has a projected payroll of about $106MM next season, though the bulk of that is tied up in their onerous commitments to Strasburg and Corbin. Strasburg is still signed through the 2026 season, while Corbin is signed through 2024.

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