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Trevor Bauer

Trevor Bauer Announces He Will Sign With Dodgers

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The Dodgers have agreed to a deal with top free agent starter Trevor Bauer, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s a three-year deal with opt-outs after year one and year two, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds that Bauer is guaranteed a total of $102MM on the deal, which includes a $40MM salary in 2021 and a $45MM salary in 2022. Both marks establish new records for the highest single-season salary, though the contract’s overall $34MM average annual value is still a bit shy of Gerrit Cole’s record $36MM. Bauer himself has confirmed the signing on YouTube.

The Mets offered Bauer more than the Dodgers did in the end, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets, but the Santa Clarita native and UCLA product was drawn both to Southern California, the opportunity to help defend a World Series championship and to the Dodgers’ “cutting edge,” technologically and data-driven pitching practices, per Sherman.

Tre vor Bauer | Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

By landing Bauer, the Dodgers will be able to boast one of the more imposing rotations in recent memory. The reigning NL Cy Young winner will join a starting staff that already includes Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias and David Price, with youngsters Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin available to soak up some innings as well as the club tries to manage workloads after a shortened 2020 schedule.

Bauer is a polarizing arm among MLB fans, both for his social media presence and for the volatility of his on-field performance. The right-hander was the No. 3 overall pick out of UCLA back in 2011, and while he was always billed as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm as a prospect, he settled in as more of a mid-rotation starter with tantalizing stuff for much of his early career.

Things changed in 2018 when Bauer broke out with a brilliant, Cy Young-caliber season. He may well have won the AL Cy Young with the Indians that year had a stress fracture in his right tibia not cut his season short by a month. Bauer started 27 games in 2018 and pitched to a pristine 2.21 ERA and 2.94 SIERA while striking out 30.8 percent of his opponents against just a 7.9 percent walk rate. Bauer posted a 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate that year, averaged 95 miles per hour on his four-seamer and, at age 27, looked to be breaking out as the ace he’d long been expected to become.

The pendulum swung back in the opposite direction early in 2019, however. Bauer got out to a fine start, pitching to a 3.49 ERA and racking up 152 1/3 innings through his first 23 starts before he was blown up for eight runs in a now-infamous start that saw him hurl the ball over the center field fence at Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium upon being removed from the game. Bauer was surprisingly traded to the Reds just days later, and his initial stint in Cincinnati didn’t go well, to say the least. In 10 games with the Reds down the stretch in 2019, Bauer was hammered for a 6.39 ERA.

That bloated mark was due largely to a fluky home run rate, however, and Bauer saw both his strikeout and walk rates remain strong. Fielding-independent pitching metrics were more bullish on his work, and his velocity held up. Entering the 2020 season, he looked like a potential rebound candidate, and he achieved that feat and then some.

Bauer’s 1.73 ERA paced the National League and was second in all of MLB to Shane Bieber, while his 2.94 SIERA ranked fourth behind Bieber, Jacob deGrom and Kenta Maeda. Bieber and deGrom were the only two starters in the game to top Bauer’s 36 percent strikeout rate, and that same pair were the only two starters with a better K-BB% than Bauer’s 29.9.

Obviously, the historic contracts that both the Dodgers and Mets were willing to put forth in order to sign Bauer are bets not necessarily on his career marks but on his ability to continue pitching at his 2018 and 2020 levels. His detractors will regularly point out that Bauer has “only” had 1.5 elite seasons, while supporters can point to the fact that outside his final 11 starts in 2019, Bauer has been pitching at a front-of-the-rotation level since Opening Day 2018. Even with that brutal finish to the 2019 season, he owns a 3.18 ERA and 3.61 SIERA with premium strikeout and walk rates over the past three years combined.

Fans can — and will — debate whether that’s worth a record-setting investment, but it should also be noted that the reason for his sky-high AAV is that both the Dodgers and Mets were willing to pay a premium to limit the length of the contract. Had Bauer sought a contract of five, six or seven years in length, as most pitchers of his age and with his track record would have done, he’d have commanded a strong but decidedly smaller annual salary. The Dodgers have previously pursued this type of arrangement with other premier free agents, most notably including Bryce Harper, whom they reportedly offered roughly $45MM annually over a four-year term during his free agency a few years ago.

The Bauer contract will send the Dodgers skyrocketing past the $210MM luxury-tax barrier, making them the lone club in baseball this winter that has been willing to surpass that mark. While many owners have treated that threshold as a salary cap, the reality is that the Dodgers’ penalty for signing Bauer won’t be particularly heavy. They’d dipped south of the luxury line in 2019 and 2020, so they’ll be considered a first-time offender.

The Dodgers owe a 20 percent tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the $210MM mark and a 32 percent tax on the next $20MM. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the team’s luxury obligations at roughly $239.5MM — meaning the Dodgers’ tax penalty, at present, will be a hair north of $7MM. That’s assuming no further additions or subtractions to the payroll, of course, but it’s certainly possible they could look for some creative trades to alter that financial outlook — particularly if they still hope to bring back franchise cornerstone Justin Turner.

We also can’t forget the Reds when talking about Bauer’s signing. While Cincinnati never looked like a realistic option to re-sign the Cy Young winner, the Reds did make him an $18.9MM qualifying offer, meaning they’re entitled to draft compensation. They’ll receive a pick at the end of the first round of next year’s draft, whereas the Dodgers will forfeit their second-highest selection in next year’s draft and also lose $500K of next year’s international bonus pool.

The last-minute Bauer strike by the Dodgers only further boosts what was already one of the game’s deepest and most talented pitching staffs. It also serves as counterpunch of sorts to an uber-aggressive winter from the division-rival Padres, who’ve added the likes of Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove to their own staff. With the Rockies dealing away Nolan Arenado, the Giants making rather minimal additions and the D-backs largely sitting out the offseason, the stage is set for a two-team race for NL West supremacy.

While Bauer’s three-month free-agent saga has drawn to a dramatic close, it’s quite possible a similar cycle will play out again next winter. Tempting as the $45MM salary in 2022 would be, he’ll “only” have two years and $62MM remaining on his contract next winter. A $31MM annual value over a two-year term makes for quite the safety net, but if Bauer again pitches at an ace-caliber level, he’d surely be able to command a larger guarantee over a lengthier term — or at least secure a similar three-year deal with ultra-premium annual salaries once again.

Opting out of the $45MM salary in 2022 may seem unthinkable to some, but remember that as recently as 2019, Bauer was planning to only ever sign one-year contracts in his career, believing strongly in furthering the market for future pitchers, maintaining control over his career and maximizing his earnings through a series of year-to-year arrangements wherein he was taking on more risk than teams. Bauer obviously softened his stance and displayed a willingness to consider multi-year pacts this winter, but the opt-out provisions in this contract give him all the flexibility of a one-year pact, and he could look for a similar opportunity next winter if he has earning power beyond that $62MM guarantee.

Mets Reportedly Set Deadline For Bauer To Decide On Offer

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10:50am: SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that there are “mixed signals” regarding whether there’s a firm deadline from the Mets to Bauer. Thosar tweets that there is not a concrete deadline in place, but a decision is nevertheless expected soon.

10:05am: The Mets have set a noon ET deadline on their current offer to free-agent righty Trevor Bauer, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). The current offer is a front-loaded, three-year pact in the $100-110MM range with opt-out clauses after years one and two, per Sherman. Bauer would earn upwards of $40MM in years one and two under the current proposal. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweets that the Mets do expect an answer from Bauer today.

Depending on the specific guarantee of the deal, that range suggests it’s possible for Bauer to set a new record for a contract’s average annual value. Anything north of $108MM on a three-year term would topple his former UCLA teammate Gerrit Cole’s current record of $36MM with the Yankees — albeit over a much shorter term than Cole’s nine-year commitment. Even if the total falls shy of that sum and Bauer narrowly misses an AAV record, if the Mets are indeed willing to pay upwards of $40MM in year one of the contract, that could represent a record in and of itself.

The Dodgers, according to Sherman, remain “in the mix” to sign Bauer, although MLB.com’s Jon Morosi indicated this morning that at least as of last night, it was the Mets who had the highest offer to Bauer on the table. While last night’s report from USA Today that Bauer and the Mets had a deal has been widely shot down, it does appear as though Bauer’s camp is nearing a decision on where he’ll play for at least the 2021 season.

Latest On Mets, Trevor Bauer

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While Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Mets have reached an agreement with right-hander Trevor Bauer, the top free agent on the board, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com offers different information, tweeting that the two sides do not have a deal yet. Indeed, agent Rachel Luba suggested on Twitter that there is not a contract in place.

While Bauer does not appear to be on his way to New York at this juncture, the team is said to be one of the two finalists for the reigning National League Cy Young winner. The Dodgers are also vying for the 30-year-old Bauer, who starred with the Reds last season and entered the winter as MLBTR’s top-ranked free agent. It’s unclear what the Dodgers are willing to offer Bauer, but the Mets are reportedly in the three-year, $100MM range and considered the favorites to sign him. That deal would be one of the richest ever given to a player on an annual basis, but it would fall short of Yankees ace Gerrit Cole’s record of $36MM per season.

If he does go to the Mets, Bauer would be the big-splash signing their fans were expecting when deep-pocketed owner Steve Cohen took over the club earlier this offseason. The Cohen-led Mets have made some aggressive moves on his watch (the Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco trade and the signings of James McCann and Trevor May, to name some), but they’ve yet to land an elite-tier free agent. That may change soon, though.

Mets Reportedly “In Talks” With Trevor Bauer; Dodgers Still Involved

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5:23pm: New York is “believed to” have made a three-year offer worth around $100MM to Bauer, tweets Heyman, who adds there’s “likely” an opt-out clause after the first season. Ed Coleman of WFAN previously reported a three-year, $90MM-plus offer with an opt-out.

4:31pm: The Mets are the current favorites in this race, Jon Morosi of MLB.com hears.

3:16pm: Agent Rachel Luba suggested on Twitter that Bauer is down to two teams, though she didn’t name the clubs.

3:05pm: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Dodgers are still in the mix and that the Bauer bidding could come down to those two clubs.

2:56pm: The Mets are currently “in talks” with free-agent righty Trevor Bauer, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the team expects to hear something more definitive from Bauer’s camp within the next 24 hours or so.

The Mets, under new owner Steve Cohen, have been the most oft-connected team to Bauer over the past month. While other clubs have made sense as on-paper fits and been connected to him more loosely, the Mets have repeatedly been portrayed as one of his likeliest landing spots. Adding Bauer on a contract of any length would very likely send the Mets soaring past the $210MM luxury tax line — barring a trade to free up some space. The Mets currently project to have about $183.5MM in luxury obligations, and Bauer is widely expected to command more than that $26.5MM gap in terms of annual salary.

Adding Bauer would also give the Mets one of the more imposing rotations in the Majors. He’d join two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, right-handers Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman, and impressive young David Peterson, who turned in a strong rookie effort in 2020. Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, would be expected to rejoin the fray midseason once he has completed his rehab from 2020 Tommy John surgery.

The Dodgers have been mentioned at times as a potential entrant into the bidding — likely on a short-term deal with a high annual value. The club has made that type of offer to various high-end free agents in recent offseasons — most notably offering Bryce Harper a reported four-year deal in the $180MM range — and could again see appeal in paying a super-premium annual rate to limit the length of their commitment to Bauer.

With Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin all on board already, Bauer would be something of a luxury item for president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman and his staff. That said, the appeal of a Buehler/Kershaw/Bauer top three is enticing, to say the least.

While the Dodgers and Mets might be the two likeliest destinations for Bauer at present, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that others could yet enter the mix with enticing two- or three-year offers at a high annual rate. That said, he adds that things between the Mets and Bauer are “quite serious” at the moment.

FA Notes: Mets, Bauer, JBJ, Arrieta, Cubs, Shark

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While free-agent right-hander Trevor Bauer and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. have frequently been connected to the Mets in recent weeks, no agreement appears imminent in either case. The club is “far apart” from deals with both of those players, Andy Martino of SNY says (video link). The race for Bauer could come down to the Mets and Dodgers, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that the Padres showed interest before acquiring Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove in separate trades. The Padres presented a three- to four-year offer to Bauer, but that “didn’t fly,” according to Heyman.

As for Bradley, the Mets are more focused on a short-term deal, whereas the 30-year-old may want a longer pact, Martino suggests. The longtime member of the Red Sox is clearly the top center fielder left on a market that lost George Springer to the Blue Jays last week, so he may be in better position to secure a large guarantee.

  • Staying with the Mets, they will be in attendance for free-agent righty Jake Arrieta’s showcase on Friday, per Martino and Colin Martin of SNY. The former Cy Young winner disappointed with the division-rival Phillies from 2018-20, but Arrieta at least looks like a capable back-end starter at this point of his career. The Mets may have opened up a spot in their starting staff Wednesday when they traded lefty Steven Matz to the Blue Jays.
  • Free-agent righty Jeff Samardzija will work out for the Cubs “at some point in the next few days,” Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes. This could lay the groundwork for a reunion between Samardzija and the Cubs, with whom he pitched from 2008-14 before a trade to the Athletics. The 36-year-old was a solid starter for the Cubs and has typically done a good job in that role with multiple teams, though he’s a free agent at an inopportune time after managing a miserable 9.72 ERA/7.35 SIERA over 16 2/3 innings and four starts last season.

Angels Not Expected To Pursue Trevor Bauer

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Though they’ve been linked in the past, at least speculatively, the Angels are evidently foregoing pursuit of top free agent starter Trevor Bauer. Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Los Angeles organization just doesn’t see itself as a match.

The report doesn’t formally stamp out the possibility of a deal with Bauer, but it comes just shy of doing so. Torres pegs the odds of the sides lining up at “practically zero.”

This development makes for a bit of a surprise given the Halos’ need for a top starter and Bauer’s ties to Southern California. One might’ve expected some effort to land the high-grade hurler, at least to a certain point in the bidding.

Interestingly, it doesn’t appear to be a situation where the market has simply moved past the team’s valuation of the player. Money is a factor, to be sure. Torres indicates that the Halos’ budget likely doesn’t have anywhere near the space needed to fit Bauer — at least, barring the authorization of a pocketbook expansion by owner Arte Moreno.

Cash is generally king, but it may not be the dispositive factor here. Torres cites the presence of Mickey Callaway as a major roadblock. Callaway’s relationship with Bauer is, she writes, “believed to be eroded beyond repair” from the grating time the pair spent with the Indians organization.

If indeed Callaway and Bauer are oil and water, the Angels may not be a fit at any (realistic) price. That could leave the Mets in the driver’s seat, though other clubs have been connected to Bauer and there’s still time for some dark horses to emerge.

Mets Have Made Offer To Trevor Bauer

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JANUARY 27: Martino has a bit more information on the Mets’ offer (Twitter link). The deal would run no more than four years, with Bauer picking up at least one opt-out opportunity. There’s still no indication that the Mets are anything more than one of several suitors at this point.

It’s no surprise that the New York org dangled this sort of relatively unorthodox scenario to Bauer. He’s obviously willing to entertain all sorts of contractual approaches and different teams may prefer any number of different structures. It’ll ultimately be interesting to learn (to the extent it ends up being publicly reported) just how many variations Bauer will ultimately have to choose from.

JANUARY 26: The Mets’ interest in Trevor Bauer has reached the point that they’ve made a formal offer to the right-hander, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). However, despite a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicating that the Mets have put forth a record-setting annual value in their offer, each of Martino, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand report that the Mets do not have an offer that strong on the table.

Nightengale has since walked back the AAV portion of his report but further tweeted that a Mets source “confirmed” they’ve made a formal offer to Bauer (obviously, at a non-record-setting rate). Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that the offer was formally put on the table “weeks ago,” so it obviously has not been strong enough to push Bauer toward a deal. That said, the first definitive indication of an offer being made to Bauer is of some note.

The current AAV record is held by Gerrit Cole, whose nine-year contract with the Yankees pays him an average of $36MM per year. There’s been plenty of speculation on the possibility of Bauer eclipsing that mark but on a shorter-term arrangement. MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes took a look at whether Bauer and agent Rachel Luba would have a legitimate case for seeking such a deal earlier this winter, concluding that a record AAV offer would likely need to come in at four or fewer years in total length. That topic has proven quite polarizing, with many onlookers pointing to Cole’s superior track record and consistency. However, as Tim explored, teams are typically willing to pay substantial premiums in terms of AAV if it limits the overall length of a contract.

Bauer hasn’t closed the door on any contract structure since his free agency began. As recently as 2019, the right-hander insisted he’d only sign one-year contracts upon reaching the market, playing out his career in mercenary-esque, year-to-year fashion. He’s softened that stance this winter, as both he and Luba have voiced an openness to longer-term deals. The potential for opt-out provisions to be baked into any multi-year agreement could certainly impact negotiations as well.

Ultimately, there’s no way of knowing whether a short-term deal with a record annual rate would prove enticing enough for Bauer — if any team is even willing to make such an offer in the first place — or whether he’d prefer the security of a longer-term pact at a lower price point. The answer there is quite likely dependent on the team making the offer. Bauer has stressed on his YouTube channel that he’s seeking a “partnership” with a win-now team that will support his desire to grow his brand on social media and have an “honest” conversation about him pitching every fourth day. The Mets, Angels and Blue Jays have all been linked to Bauer in recent weeks, and other pitching-needy teams are surely at least keeping tabs on his market.

Latest On Trevor Bauer

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JAN. 22, 9:24pm: The Twins are not in the race after all, Rosenthal reports.

8:39pm: The Mets’ interest in Bauer “has become more focused” since the Blue Jays agreed to sign Springer, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Jays are “believed” to still be in the running, however, and the same goes for the Dodgers and Twins. There’s no word on whether the Angels remain a possibility.

JAN. 21: It’s “believed” that the Mets and Angels have the best chance to land Bauer, per Feinsand. Meanwhile, despite the interest the Dodgers have shown in Bauer, it “still feels like a long shot to most industry sources” that he will end up with them, Feinsand writes.

JAN. 20: It appears the Dodgers have entered the market for top free agent hurler Trevor Bauer. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan connected the two sides (Twitter link), with Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) adding further detail to the situation.

At the moment, all that’s known is that the L.A. ballclub has initiated contact with Bauer’s camp and that the team’s interest is in a shorter-term pact. Both of those nuggets of information fail to surprise.

It has long felt inevitable that we’d see a connection between the SoCal native and the reigning world champs. Indeed, that’s just the outcome MLBTR prognosticated would ultimately come to fruition. Among other things, Bauer has expressed an inclination to pursue shorter-term, higher-AAV contract scenarios of the sort that the Dodgers have dangled to other premium players.

That’s not to say Bauer is sure to wear Dodger blue. The other team in Los Angeles remains a factor, among quite a few others. With some truly astronomical sums potentially in play, anything could still happen.

Bauer’s willingness to entertain creative offers also helps keep the door open to a variety of organizations. It may well be possible to make a competitive pitch without committing to an uncomfortably long guarantee.

For instance, the Blue Jays have already taken on a lengthy deal this winter by signing George Springer, perhaps reducing their appetite for another. But the Toronto organization may yet attempt to lure Bauer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes on Twitter. Whether or not that potential effort would be based around a shorter term isn’t clear, but it’s certainly one potential avenue.

The Springer contract has surely buoyed Bauer’s own hopes for a monster deal — whether he chooses to maximize total guarantee or his annual salary. Amid so much uncertainty, a hefty $150MM pact makes clear that teams still have serious money to commit to payroll when they so choose.

Does Trevor Bauer Have A Case For Gerrit Cole’s AAV?

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In an article yesterday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand made a statistical case that Trevor Bauer’s recent body of work justifies him matching or exceeding the record $36MM average annual value Gerrit Cole received in December 2019.  While it may not be true that Cole and Bauer currently have beef, we can at least say the former UCLA teammates once had a rivalry.  Beating Cole’s AAV record would be a major feat for Bauer and agent Rachel Luba.  But as Homer Simpson once said, “Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent.  Forfty percent of all people know that.”  So I set out to see how Feinsand’s claims hold up.

Bauer has had an up-and-down career.  Since 2017, his season ERAs are 4.19, 2.21, 4.48, and 1.73.  Feinsand, who also included Stephen Strasburg in his comparison, mainly focused on each pitcher’s final 90 starts heading into free agency.  Why 90?  Well, a three-season lookback is pretty standard.  A 90-start lookback also happens to be quite convenient for Bauer, as it excludes his rough first half of 2017.

One thing I did not see in Feinsand’s article was any form of a strikeout rate, walk rate, or groundball rate.  Those are the things pitchers do that actually correlate year-to-year.  So here’s that look, with the additional info.  We’ll remove Strasburg, since the question is whether Bauer is worthy of Cole’s AAV record.  (App users can click here to see the 90-start comparison).

Cole had better strikeout and walk rates in his previous 90 starts, which is more important than the ERA difference.  But I was also thinking it’s strange to do a comparison that includes 25 starts from Cole’s 2017 season, his last with the Pirates.  Upon joining the Astros in a January 2018 trade, Cole famously changed his pitch mix and approach, to drastically improved results.  So how would a Bauer-Cole comparison look over the previous 60 starts?  (App users can click here to see the 60-start comparison).

Even though this window excludes Cole’s first five starts of 2018, which were dominant, it further accentuates the differences between the two hurlers.  They’re both strikeout pitchers.  But what Cole did in his walk year – a 39.9 K% – is literally the best in baseball history for a pitcher with at least 100 innings (Cole pitched 212 1/3).  Bauer’s walk year strikeout rate of 36% was historic in its own right – seventh all-time for a qualified starter – but it was only 11 starts due to the 60-game season.  That brings us to one last comparison, one that Feinsand made of each pitcher’s best 11 starts in their walk year (app users click here):

Both dominant stretches, yet Cole’s was clearly better.  If we’re comparing post-2019 Cole to current Trevor Bauer, we can state the following:

  • Cole averaged 97.2 miles per hour on his fastball in his walk year.  Bauer averaged 93.5.
  • On a related note, while both are strong strikeout pitchers, Cole was significantly better for longer.
  • Cole had better control than Bauer.
  • Cole was dominant in two full, consecutive seasons leading up to free agency.  Bauer has never been dominant in two consecutive seasons.
  • Bauer will be 234 days older on 4-1-21 than Cole was on 4-1-20.

On the merits of statistics, I don’t see how one can say that Bauer is better than Cole and therefore deserves a higher AAV.  Feinsand makes a good point, though: if Bauer limits himself to an artificially shorter contract, his AAV should go up from where it would have been had he maxed out the years.  But what is Bauer’s actual years maximum, assuming he won’t take an artificially low AAV like Bryce Harper did?

Given the current state of baseball economics, I’d suggest six.  So to bring enhanced AAVs into play as a reward for an artificially short term, Bauer would probably have to sign for four or fewer years.  Remember, the Dodgers reportedly offered Harper a $45MM AAV on a four-year term.  Instead, he took a $25MM AAV on a 13-year term.

There are several reasons why the Bauer-Cole comparison actually doesn’t matter.  The first is the state of the market in December 2019 compared to the current state of affairs.  All 30 teams brought in significantly smaller amounts of revenue in 2020 than in 2019.  Most of the best free agents remain unsigned, but the ones that did sign exceeded expectations.  It’s an odd combination.  But it’s fair to say market conditions are worse for Bauer than they were for Cole.

The second reason contract comps don’t matter is that free agency is a bidding war.  The goal of every team targeting a free agent is to get that player for as little as possible.  Agents don’t convince teams to spend more money by holding up other free agent contracts from years past.  Generally speaking, teams run circles around agents in statistical chops, anyway.  It’s certainly possible that Luba will be able to get a couple of teams to bid irrationally on Bauer, but it won’t be because of what Cole received.

The last point is that teams don’t pay free agents for what they have done; they pay for what they expect the player to do in the future over the life of the contract.  Again, we have to defer to teams’ superior abilities to forecast what Bauer will do.  They’ll use advanced stats, Statcast data, health history, and proprietary information we’ll never see.  They won’t use ERA, which generally has a year-to-year correlation around 0.4.  But that’s how a team’s GM will approach it.  Signing Bauer is an ownership-level decision, and an owner is unlikely to analyze a potential signing with the same sophistication as the GM.

As Bauer once put it, he and Cole are “intertwined forever.”  The UCLA teammates were drafted two picks apart in 2011 and made their way to MLB free agency coming off fantastic walk years.  But as I see it, Bauer’s current position falls short of where Cole stood when he hit the market in 2019.

Angels Notes: Remaining Needs, Coaching Staff

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The Angels were busy earlier this offseason in acquiring a pair of relievers – Raisel Iglesias and Alex Claudio – as well as shortstop Jose Iglesias, but things have slowed to a crawl for the team in recent weeks. It’s not for lack of effort by new general manager Perry Minasian, who hopes Major League Baseball’s glacial offseason picks up the pace. “It’s been a different offseason,” Minasian said on Monday, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. “It seems like there’s been less activity. We’ve been one of the more active teams and it seems like we haven’t done anything in a year.”

“I have been as active as I can be,” added Minasian, who still intends to address the team’s starting rotation, according to Fletcher. So far, the Angels haven’t been able to strengthen that group, though Minasian has been working on it. Ideally, the Angels will land the top free agent available – Southern California native and reigning NL Cy Young-winning right-hander Trevor Bauer – and Fletcher writes the two sides figure to have “mutual interest.” It’s unclear how serious that interest is on either side, however, Fletcher notes.

Here’s more on the Angels…

  • Beyond upgrading his team’s rotation, Minasian said (via Fletcher) he’s on the hunt for depth at catcher and in the outfield. That isn’t surprising in either case, particularly behind the plate. The Angels’ only 40-man catchers are Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom (Stassi’s on the mend from September hip surgery), and the team has shown interest this month in acquiring the Cubs’ Willson Contreras. Meanwhile, aside from center fielder Mike Trout, the outfield is something of a question mark. Justin Upton and Jo Adell had difficult years in 2020, while Taylor Ward failed to hit a home run in 102 plate appearances (though his overall numbers were still respectable). Jared Walsh had a brilliant year with the bat, but he saw little time in the outfield.
  • The Angels announced Monday that Bruce Hines will serve as their first base coach and outfield instructor in 2021. He’s replacing Jesus Feliciano, who left the team for personal reasons. There is already a great deal of familiarity between the franchise and Hines, as he previously combined for 23 years with the Angels in various scouting and coaching roles. That included a stint as their first base coach in 1991.
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