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Reds Notes: Bryant, Turner, Castellanos, Sims

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The Reds had a fairly quiet deadline, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week that they pursued at least one outside-the-box upgrade to their lineup: Kris Bryant. Cincinnati viewed Bryant as a possible option in center field, but would only have been able to acquire him in the event that the Cubs paid the remaining $6.8MM on his contract between the deadline and the end of the season. The Reds also at least looked into Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, Rosenthal adds, though those talks never became particularly serious.

It stands to reason that if the Reds would’ve needed the Cubs to cover the remainder of Bryant’s contract, the same would’ve held true with the Nationals in a deal for Turner, who is earning $13MM in 2021 and was owed $4.5MM from July 31 through season’s end. He’ll also be in line for a considerable raise via arbitration this winter, and Turner would have naturally come with a higher cost of acquisition, from a prospect standpoint, due that extra year of control.

In the end, the Reds’ deadline brought them a trio relievers in Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson, all of whom were acquired at minimal prospect cost. They’ll deepen a Reds relief corps that ranks 28th in the Majors with a 5.34 ERA and currently has two of its best relievers, Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims, on the injured list.

More out of Cincinnati…

  • The Reds could get slugger Nick Castellanos back in the lineup as soon as today, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The 29-year-old Castellanos sustained a microfracture in his wrist when he was hit by a pitch three weeks ago. Initial X-rays didn’t catch the fracture, which led to Castellanos making some pinch-hit appearances while playing through considerable discomfort, but a CT scan eventually revealed the damage. Castellanos said back on July 21 that was unable to swing a bat, but Nightengale notes that Castellanos has taken batting practice three times this week. Manager David Bell said the club’s primary concern is getting Castellanos “back to full strength” so he doesn’t develop any poor mechanics as compensation for a lack of strength in the wrist. Castellanos, who can opt out of the final two years of his contract this offseason, has mashed at a .329/.383/.582 pace and clubbed 18 home runs through 368 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Injured righty Lucas Sims is progressing through a rehab assignment and made his fourth appearance with Triple-A Louisville last night. Bell told reporters recently that the plan was to build Sims up to pitch in back-to-back games (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com), which he’s yet to do. Still, the fact that he’s progressed through four rehab outings, seemingly without issue, suggests a return sooner than later for the righty, who’d been on a lights-out hot streak before getting clobbered for three runs without recording an out on June 22. Sims was placed on the injured list with an elbow sprain the next day. Sims has had three particularly tough outings in 2021, including that final appearance before going on the injured list, but has generally been solid otherwise. His 5.02 ERA is skewed by that handful of rough outings, but Sims carries vastly more encouraging marks in FIP (3.44), SIERA (3.20) and strikeout percentage (34.9). A healthy Sims would be a major boost to the Reds’ bullpen as they push to close a four-game gap in the Wild Card standings.

Dodgers Place Edwin Uceta On Injured List, Recall Brusdar Graterol

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The Dodgers have placed righty Edwin Uceta on the IL with a lumbar strain, according to Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register. His roster spot will go to fellow righty Brusdar Graterol.

Uceta has been on-and-off the roster constantly this year, having been optioned and recalled six times. This will also be his second stint on the IL with a back issue. The 23-year-old is well regarded, currently ranked the Dodgers’ #19 prospect by MLB Pipeline. That hasn’t translated to on-field success yet this year. In 17 2/3 MLB innings, he has an ERA of 7.64. Over 17 1/3 Triple-A innings, the ERA is 6.75. Although the advanced metrics like his work better, at both levels.

Graterol has had a very similar season, bouncing between the injured list, Triple-A and big leagues, though he’s been optioned half as many times as Uceta. In 16 2/3 innings at Triple-A, he has an ERA of 6.48. And in nine big league innings, his ERA is an even 6.00. Although, like Uceta, the advanced metrics like him more at both levels. The 22-year-old will be looking to get back into a groove and return to the form that made him a weapon for the Dodgers last year, when he had a 3.09 ERA during the regular season and a 3.52 ERA in the postseason.

In other news from Chavez Ravine, Trea Turner will be flying into Los Angeles on Friday, according to Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Friday will be the 10th day after Turner’s positive COVID-19 test, meaning his minimum quarantine period will have elapsed. But at this point, it’s unclear if he will be immediately activated by the club.

Dodgers Acquire Max Scherzer And Trea Turner From Nationals For Four Prospects

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In a stunning deadline blockbuster, the Dodgers acquired stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. In exchange, Los Angeles sent back four prospects, including two of the top young talents in baseball. Catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handers Josiah Gray and Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey are go to Washington. Scherzer waived his no-trade rights to facilitate the deal.

It had become clear in recent days the Nationals were likely to trade Scherzer, but the saga took its share of twists and turns along the way. The division-rival Padres were reportedly close to landing the three-time Cy Young award winner earlier in the afternoon. Other teams — the Dodgers among them — lurked on the periphery, though, and Los Angeles jumped in as the Nationals’ talks with San Diego never got across the finish line. In the process, the Dodgers also add one of the game’s best position players as part of a jaw-dropping package deal.

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.

It’s the continuation of what was a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. That deal proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17 and was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. Perhaps most importantly, Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.

Scherzer now joins a rotation that already includes Walker Buehler and is expected to soon welcome back Clayton Kershaw from the injured list. That trio would make for an incredible top three in any postseason series, to say nothing of the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin as options for a fourth game and/or multi-inning work out of the bullpen. (Trevor Bauer remains on administrative leave after being accused of assault; it’s not clear if/when he’ll return to the team this season).

Of course, the Dodgers still need to solidify their chances of making a playoff series to unleash that three-headed monster in October. The Dodgers are almost certain to make the playoffs in some capacity, but the Giants somewhat surprisingly remain three games up on them in the NL West race. The competition at the top of the division from San Francisco and San Diego could leave the Dodgers staring down a one-game playoff. Acquiring Scherzer gives Los Angeles another ace to potentially take the ball in a Wild Card game, but it also increases their odds of winning the division and avoiding the contest altogether.

Incredibly, Scherzer is likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ haul. While Scherzer’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner is controllable through 2022 via arbitration and every bit as productive. Turner has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the 28-year-old is hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.

Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.

A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’ll continue to do so in Los Angeles, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.

Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could use Turner in a utility-type capacity for the remainder of this season and plug him in as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere.

Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player group that was already among the league’s best. Seager has missed two months after fracturing his hand, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this weekend. Turner, who landed on the injured list this week after testing positive for COVID-19 in what’ll apparently be his final game as a National, is out for at least the next week-plus.

Unsurprisingly, adding two of the sport’s best players will cost quite a bit — both financially and from a talent perspective. Scherzer is playing out the year on a $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Scherzer’s remaining salary for 2021 (which won’t actually be paid out for seven years). Presumably, the Nationals will remain on the hook for all the deferred payments for time he’s already spent in Washington.

Turner, meanwhile, is making $13MM in his penultimate year of arbitration, which the Dodgers will also assume. Around $4.5MM of that sum remains to be paid, and he’ll surely be in line for a sizable raise this winter during his final trip through the arb process.

In addition to those salaries, the Dodgers are set to take on rather significant expenditures in luxury tax payments. The remainder of Scherzer’s contract contains a luxury tax hit in the $10MM range, while Turner’s CBT number exactly matches that of his real salary. Altogether, the Dodgers are adding something in the realm of $14.5MM to their luxury tax ledger.

That’s significant but apparently not much of a deterrent. Even before today’s acquisitions, the Dodgers had a CBT number north of $260MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That places them in the highest tax bracket, with Los Angeles subject to a 62.5% tax on any dollar spent over that mark. By assuming the remainder of Scherzer’s and Turner’s deals, the Dodgers are agreeing to pay somewhere in the range of $9MM in penalties on top of the money they’ll owe to the players.

Ownership is apparently willing to do exactly that in service of constructing a potential super-team. The defending World Series champions were arguably the most talented club in the league already, and they’ve added Scherzer, Turner and Danny Duffy to that loaded roster the day before the trade deadline.

To make that happen, Los Angeles has parted with a couple of baseball’s most talented young players. Ruiz has seemingly been on top prospect lists forever, but he’s still just 23 years old. He’s only picked up 15 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’d likely have accrued far more playing time were he playing in most other organizations.

With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers’ current and long-term catcher, there simply hasn’t been much opportunity for Ruiz. That said, the switch-hitting backstop has earned a major league look. He’s performed well at basically every minor league stop, and that’s continued in 2021.

Ruiz is hitting a massive .311/.381/.631 with 16 home runs across 231 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America just ranked him the league’s #16 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update, lauding his elite bat-to-ball skills and suggesting he’s a solid enough defender to stick behind the plate. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ruiz to settle in as an above-average or All-Star caliber catcher given his rare offensive upside for the position.

Ruiz is already on the 40-man roster and would seem to be a big league caliber option for the Nats this season. He’s in his final minor league option year, so he’ll need to break camp with the Nationals in 2022.

Gray wasn’t too far behind Ruiz on BA’s top 100 list, checking in 56th overall and second in the Los Angeles system. The young starter draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and fantastic athleticism, which allows him to throw strikes at a strong rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Gray as the sport’s #29 prospect entering the season (he’s up to 21st following other players’ graduations), calling him a likely “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak.

The 23-year-old made his major league debut last week and has pitched in a pair of big league games. Gray spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, although an injured list stint caused him to miss a fair amount of time. He tossed 15 2/3 innings of 2.87 ERA ball before his promotion, his first crack at the minors’ top level.

Neither Ruiz nor Gray will accrue enough big league time to reach a full year of service in 2021. They won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season and aren’t likely to qualify for arbitration until the 2024-25 offseason. Both players have the opportunity to be long-term stalwarts in D.C., with many potential games featuring a Gray-Ruiz battery over the coming years. Gray still has all three options remaining.

Carrillo will also step directly onto Washington’s 40-man roster. His contract was selected last winter to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but Carrillo hasn’t yet appeared in the majors. He’s spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa, tossing 59 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. The 22-year-old has struck out a strong 26.2% of batters faced but walked an alarming 10.9% of opponents.

Both Baseball America and FanGraphs suggest that lack of control is likely to eventually push Carrillo to the bullpen, but his mid-90’s sinker and power breaking ball could suit him quite well in short stints. Longenhagen slots Carrillo tenth in the Nationals system assuming the trade is completed.

Casey will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The former 20th-round pick (2017) isn’t seen as a particularly strong prospect, but he’s having a quality season in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment. The 25-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.462 with 11 home runs across 334 plate appearances with Tulsa. Casey has seen action at all three outfield positions.

The blockbuster completely changes the National League outlook. The Dodgers add two of the game’s best players to a tight divisional race, seemingly acquiring Scherzer out of the Padres grasp. With a few high-profile targets (José Berríos, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant chief among them) still having a chance to wind up on the move, the Dodgers’ in-state division rivals figure to be active themselves as the deadline approaches.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Nationals and Dodgers were in serious discussions about a deal involving Scherzer and Turner. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported Ruiz’s and Casey’s involvement in the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Gray’s inclusion, while Jim Bowden of the Athletic was first to identify Carrillo as part of the deal. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report Scherzer’s willingness to waive his no-trade rights, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that the Dodgers would assume Scherzer’s and Turner’s remaining 2021 financial obligations.

Nationals Place Daniel Hudson, Trea Turner On Covid IL

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The Nationals announced this morning that they’ve placed shortstop Trea Turner, right-hander Daniel Hudson, righty Austin Voth and catcher Alex Avila on the Covid-19-related injured list prior to today’s doubleheader. They’ve also reinstated catcher Yan Gomes and righty Tanner Rainey from the 10-day injured list in a pair of corresponding moves. Additionally, right-hander Andres Machado and infielder Luis Garcia were recalled from Triple-A Rochester.

Turner hitting the Covid IL was a foregone conclusion after he tested positive a couple days ago. It wasn’t yet clear which other players might need to be placed on the Covid-related list until today, however. To be clear, the Nationals did not reveal whether any of Hudson, Voth or Avila had tested positive or whether they were close contacts.

Turner and Hudson, notably, have emerged as a trade candidates as the Nationals’ recent slide in the standings has caused the team to pivot to sellers. Both players can still be traded while on the Covid-19 list, though their current status obviously complicates any potential discussions. A player who tests positive is subject to a minimum 10-day quarantine under MLB’s 2021 health and safety protocols; close contacts are subject to seven-day quarantines.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported yesterday that even in the wake of Turner’s positive test, he was still drawing interest (Twitter thread). At least two executives to whom Sherman spoke believed a trade involving Turner would still come together, though that’s still far from a given. Even prior to Tuesday’s positive test, Turner represented a difficult player to pry away. The All-Star shortstop is earning $13MM in 2021 and has another year of arbitration remaining, making him costly in terms of both salary and prospects. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote this morning that a trade was unlikely, noting that several interested parties prefer to look at alternative options and wait until free agency this offseason to pursue one of the many high-end shortstops available in free agency (e.g. Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Trevor Story).

As for Hudson, he’s an impending free agent who has somewhat quietly been having the best season of his 12-year big league career. The 34-year-old, who closed out the World Series for the Nationals in 2019, has pitched to a 2.20 ERA with a career-high 37.5 percent strikeout rate and a 5.5 percent walk rate that nearly matches his 5.4 percent career-low. He’s earning $6MM in 2021, and while Hudson doesn’t carry the name value of some more notable targets like Craig Kimbrel or even his own teammate, Brad Hand, he’s among the best relief options on the market.

Trea Turner Tests Positive For COVID-19

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Nationals star shortstop Trea Turner has tested positive for COVID-19, the team announced. Turner was removed from this evening’s game against the Phillies in the first inning after the result came in. Fellow infielder Luis Garcia is likely to be recalled from Triple-A Rochester to replace Turner on the active roster, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link).

It’s a shocking development for a player who recently surfaced in trade rumors. Upon Turner’s mid-game exit, plenty of speculation emerged about a potential deal being in the works. Instead, his removal is a result of a positive test.

Placement on the COVID IL doesn’t come with a minimum stint, although the fact that Turner tested positive suggests he’s likely to miss at least ten days while quarantining. Players on the injured list can still be traded, so tonight’s news doesn’t entirely eliminate the possibility of a midseason deal.

That always seemed a bit unlikely, though, given Turner’s star play and the Nationals’ desire to compete again in 2022 (and perhaps to not throw in the towel on the 2021 season). Uncertainty about his health status only figures to complicate any trade talks, casting even more doubt on the possibility of Turner changing teams by Friday.

Obviously, Turner’s health is of paramount importance. The Nationals haven’t offered further comment beyond the news of his positive test result, but it’s notable that Turner felt well enough to take the field tonight before his positive test became known to the organization.

Nats Receiving Strong Interest In Trea Turner

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TODAY: Beyond Turner, the Nationals are willing to at least discuss trading anyone besides Juan Soto, according to Dan Federico (Twitter link).

JULY 26: It’s been less than a week since Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke about how his team’s play leading up to the deadline would determine whether the front office would operate as buyers or sellers. The Nats have gone 1-4 since those comments, including a loss to the last-place Marlins and a three-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles in Baltimore.

There’s no indication yet that the Nationals are on the brink of a broad-reaching sell-off, but Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that the Nationals are receiving “a lot” of interest in All-Star shortstop Trea Turner and have not firmly ruled out moving him (Twitter thread). It goes without saying that the Nats would need an overwhelming return in order to part with Turner, who is still owed about $4.82MM of this year’s $13MM salary and is controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season.

Broadly speaking, one would think that the 28-year-old Turner is an extension candidate more than a trade candidate, given the Nationals’ perennially high payroll, recent World Series victory and general “win-now” mindset. However, MLB Network’s Peter Gammons tweeted today that Nationals ownership doesn’t have plans to green-light a long-term extension with Turner.

Absence of an extension doesn’t necessarily mean that a trade of Turner is a foregone conclusion, of course. The Nationals will in all likelihood be aiming to contend in 2022, regardless of how their 2021 campaign plays out, and Turner would be a central figure in those efforts. But it’s also certainly possible that for a player of Turner’s caliber, the Nats could extract multiple near-MLB pieces and/or controllable young big leaguers who could both deepen the roster for the 2022 season and set them up nicely in the long run.

Turner, the No. 13 overall pick back in 2014, has established himself as one of MLB’s best all-around talents dating back to a breakout 2016 campaign. He’s a .301/.356/.489 hitter 92 home runs and 190 stolen bases in that time and, in deserving fashion, finally nabbed his first All-Star nod in 2021. Turner is batting .319/.367/.521 this season and entered play leading the National League with 199 total bases on the season. No one has swiped more bases than Turner since the start of the 2016 season, and FanGraphs ranks him 20th among all position players in wins above replacement in that span.

If Turner indeed were to hit the market, it’d be a major shakeup to a fairly limited crop of available infielders. Fellow shortstops Trevor Story and Javier Baez are the most notable player available, though neither is having a great year at the plate. Other (non-shortstop) possibilities include Jonathan Schoop, Eduardo Escobar, Whit Merrifield and Asdrubal Cabrera. Story has reportedly received some interest as a possible outside-the-box option in center field, and Turner could hold similar appeal — particularly since he’s actually played 387 innings of center field in the big leagues. (Story has played only shortstop in the Majors.)

The market for infield help is still developing — as is the trade market in general, despite the deadline’s proximity — but the Mariners, Brewers, Mets, Reds, White Sox, A’s have all been linked to infield upgrades (not necessarily at shortstop). The Padres, who originally drafted Turner, seem to be in on virtually every big name that hits the market, regardless of whether their roster presents a clear fit.

The Turner rumblings come at the same time as reports that Max Scherzer is at least open to waiving his 10-and-5 no-trade rights. While that doesn’t definitively signal the organization has made up its mind to sell this week, but it’s only natural to think that after slipping in recent weeks — or at least failing to gain much ground — hopeful buyers are beginning to circle and gauge the asking prices should the Nats eventually wave the white flag on 2021. Rizzo himself last week said that if the Nats do become sellers, “everything will be on the table, I would think.”

Latest From The Nationals

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The Nationals’ will to compete is being tested this trade deadline. After back-to-back losses to the Orioles, the Nats don’t look at all like a contender. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and two cornerstone players in Trea Turner and Juan Soto whom they’ll want to sign long-term in the coming season. Restocking the farm system could go a long way to providing Turner and Soto with the future competitive security they may need to ink long-term deals, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

The most significant deadline question, of course, revolves around Max Scherzer. Mad Max missed his start yesterday with triceps discomfort, but it’s a minor injury and nothing that should derail a potential trade, if there were to be one. A decision has not yet been made about making his next start, per Dougherty.

Joe Ross will come off the injured list without a rehab assignment to start tomorrow’s game against the Phillies, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Ross hasn’t been talked about much in terms of the trade market, but he’s put up a solid season — 4.02 ERA/4.51 FIP in 87 1/3 innings — as he finally looks to be rounding back into form as the guy who debuted with the Nats back in 2015. He’s making just $1.5MM, and he has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Scherzer is obviously the big fish in Washington, but for teams looking for cheap, controllable help in the rotation, Ross has mid-rotation upside.

Whether Ross would be available or not is unclear. If indeed the Nats decide to sell, Daniel Hudson and Brad Hand would presumably be the two names of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Hudson has been excellent once again this year and could solidify a contender’s pen as he did for the Nats in 2019. The Blue Jays are among the teams to ask about the Nats’ pair of back-end arms, per Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

Tanner Rainey is beginning a rehab assignment today, tweets Dougherty. Rainey’s had a tough season to date — 6.93 ERA in 24 2/3 innings — and he’s less likely to be dealt than the names above. That said, if Hudson and/or Hand are moved, Rainey would be a prime contender to take on some high leverage duties.

If Scherzer and/or Ross do get moved, the Nats would have to dig deep to find enough starters to fill out their rotation. Stephen Strasburg does not seem any closer to making his return from a neck strain and other various ailments. He will see another specialist this week, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.

Recurring Depth Shortage Makes Nationals A Team To Watch

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The Nationals were the beneficiaries of an otherworldly run of power from Kyle Schwarber in June. Schwarber’s hot streak has been well-documented, but to put it in brief, Schwarber hit 16 home runs after June 12th to finish with the second most home runs in June all-time. Better yet, in that 19-game stretch, the Nationals went 15-4, putting the team back over .500 and firmly in the conversation for the NL East crown. They are 2.5 games behind the Mets entering play on Saturday.

But it’s July now, and the Nationals have a stark new reality to confront. Schwarber left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury and was placed on the 10-day injured list today. Manager Dave Martinez called the injury “significant” and said that he’ll be out for more than a 10-day injured list stint, per Todd Dybas of Inside the Clubhouse (Twitter links). That’s not a death knell for the Nats, but it is a crushing blow for a team that’s long been one of the most top-heavy teams in the league.

The Nationals not only lack the depth to cover for significant injuries, but there’s very little by way of system depth to shore up those weaknesses via trade. Case and point, Trea Turner is day-to-day after jamming his finger on a triple, which forced the team to use catcher Alex Avila as their starting second baseman the next day. But this isn’t just a clerical misunderstanding or bit of ill-timing that left the Nats temporarily short-handed in the infield. Their dearth of ML-capable infielders is such that they immediately turned around and traded for Alcides Escobar from the Royals.

That the Nationals have any kind of question for which Escobar is the answer should be a tell-tale giveaway of their current circumstances. Escobar hasn’t played in the Majors since 2018. He hasn’t reached base at a better than .300 OBP clip since 2014. He has never slugged over .400 SLG for a season.

For the optimists out there, he does have a capable glove, the Royals won a World Series with Escobar at shortstop, and he posted a league-average bat over the past two seasons in Triple-A. For six seasons from 2011 to 2016, Escobar averaged 1.82 rWAR/1.83 fWAR per season. That’s not star quality, but it’s a capable Major Leaguer.

To return to the cup-half-empty crowd, those years were firmly in Escobar’s physical prime, and at 34 years old, he’s well beyond that. He averaged -1.45 rWAR/-0.2 fWAR in his final two seasons in the Majors, which to reiterate, was three seasons ago.

Granted, it’s not clear right now what the Nationals’ plan is for Escobar. He is on the active roster, but it’s anyone’s guess how long he stays. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Escobar find a home in DC, as other unlikely roster castoffs have in the past — guys like Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, and Gerardo Parra.

In the short term, Humberto Arteaga had his contract selected, and he started at short yesterday. Arteaga is another Royals’ castoff. Arteaga was the Royals’ 20th-ranked prospect by Baseball America in 2013, and he’s never at any level posted a better than 93 wRC+. Just as quickly, he’s been designated for assignment. If he goes unclaimed, however, the Nats may need Arteaga again.

The caveat to the Nats’ shortstop problem is that it doesn’t seem like Turner will be out for long. For a couple of days, Arteaga or even Escobar are fine stopgaps. But if Turner’s injury extends to a stint on the injured list, the Nats might consider turning to one of two top prospects: Luis Garcia or Carter Kieboom. The sheen has worn off these two, but they still hold tremendous promise, and they’re both raking in Triple-A. The problem is that neither profiles as a shortstop. Garcia has started 25 games at short in Rochester, but he’s been dealing with injury concerns of his own.

Garcia — who is still just 21 — is the Nats’ sole in-house option that has some chance to hold the line in the case of a Turner injury. That said, there’s no replacing Turner, who has been among the most productive regulars in the game with 3.6 fWAR, tied for sixth-most among qualified position players in the Majors.

Returning to left field, the Nats are going to have a similar problem filling in for Schwarber. Gerardo Parra was the immediate replacement, and beyond him, only Josh Harrison has experience in the outfield. While playing with a four-man bench and a hobbled Turner, Harrison is essentially the emergency backup at every position.

He’s also a decent counterpoint to skepticism of the Nats’ strategy to trust trusted hands. Harrison was all but out of the league after back-to-back putrid seasons with losing teams in the Pirates and Tigers, the latter of whom released him after he hit .175/.218/.263 in 36 games. He’s been rejuvenated in Washington, however, hitting .275/.352/.386 in 358 plate appearances across 2020-21. The 5’8″ sparkplug has been worth 1.3 rWAR this year.

Parra doesn’t have the hard evidence to back up his on-field value since latching on with the Nats mid-way through 2019, but his contributions as a clubhouse presence cannot be discounte — not when “Baby Shark” continues to rev the engines of Nats Park whenever Parra steps to the plate. With the ability to play all three outfield spots, Parra certainly adds enough value to hold a roster spot, but he’s overextended as an everyday player.

Which leads us to Yadiel Hernandez, the likeliest option to get the call as the regular left fielder until Schwarber returns, especially with Andrew Stevenson also out (Stevenson is set to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow, notes Dougherty). Hernandez has some power and regularly puts together quality at-bats. In his youth, he could play all three outfield spots, but now he’s best used in a corner. He has mashed to the tune of .309/.367/.618 in 14 games since being optioned to Triple-A, where the Nats sent him to get more regular playing time.

The 33-year-old rookie may seem an uninspired option at first glance, but there’s cause for his believers to feel righteous: he hit a particularly righteous .333/.390/.417 in 41 plate appearances earlier this season when getting regular playing time as Juan Soto’s injury replacement. His overall line slipped to .261/.316/.362 in 76 trips, but with Schwarber and Soto healthy, Hernandez’s opportunities were limited to pinch-hitting. That’s a tough gig and not everyone can be Lenny Harris or Matt Stairs (though Stairs is actually a decent comp for body type and swing style).

As with Turner, nobody is capable of stepping into the role left behind by Schwarber, at least as he was in June. Even Schwarber was unlikely to continue to be that guy. The macro problem for the Nationals isn’t replacing Turner and Schwarber over the next few days or even weeks, it’s that the pool of talent behind the active roster is thin enough that it’s not hard to imagine a total collapse — which is why teams continue to eye the Nats closely as the trade deadline approaches.

On the one hand, Stephen Strasburg could return, Patrick Corbin could find his form, Turner’s finger issue could pass quickly, Soto could hit a much-anticipated power surge, and Daniel Hudson, Tanner Rainey, and Kyle Finnegan could make hasty returns from the injured list to reinforce the bullpen. In a relatively flaccid NL East, the Nationals certainly can make a run.

On the other hand, Strasburg’s mysterious poor health could remain mysterious and poor, Corbin could struggle to find his mechanical consistency all season, and with just an injury or two, the offense could crater. That was the story for the Nationals in 2020, which resulted in a last-place club. That was also the case in 2019 when — stop me if you’ve heard this before — an injury to Turner’s finger nearly tanked their season.

The watch is on to see how the Nats respond to Schwarber’s injury. At the very least, we now know Schwarber isn’t coming back any time soon — which quite literally puts an end to the run that got them back into contention.

East Notes: Turner, Familia, Nimmo, Sale, Moreno

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It was a banner day for Trea Turner, as the Nationals shortstop celebrated his 28th birthday and tied a Major League record with his third career cycle.  Turner joins Adrian Beltre, Babe Herman, Bob Meusel, and Long John Reilly as the only players since 1890 with three cycles on their resume, putting Turner in good position to claim sole possession of the record before his career is over.

Unfortunately, the achievement wasn’t without some pain for Turner, as he jammed his left middle finger while sliding into third base for the triple that completed the cycle.  Turner told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that his finger was “pretty sore,” and manager Davey Martinez said Turner is day-to-day for the time being.  Turner’s big day (which also included two stolen bases) only continues what has been a big season for the shortstop, who is now hitting .318/.367/.513 with 14 homers, 18 stolen bases, and an even 50 runs and 100 hits over 341 plate appearances.

Some more injury news from around the NL and AL East divisions…

  • Jeurys Familia is expected to be activated off the 10-day injured list this weekend, Mets manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post).  A right hip impingement sidelined Familia on June 21, so he’ll miss only slightly more than the 10-day minimum.  Despite an ungainly 14.3% walk rate, Familia has a solid 3.63 ERA/4.31 SIERA over 22 1/3 IP, with a 58.5% grounder rate and a lot of soft contact helping offset his lack of control.
  • Brandon Nimmo could also potentially be back on the Mets roster this weekend.  Nimmo hasn’t played since May 2 due to what was initially called a left index finger contusion, then re-diagnosed as a potential nerve problem, and then as a small ligament tear.  This confusion led to a couple of stops and starts in Nimmo’s rehab, and an initial thought that he would be activated off the IL yesterday was held off since the team wanted him to get a bit more prep work in the minors.  Given all the setbacks, it probably shouldn’t be considered a sure deal for Nimmo until he is actually back at Citi Field, but things look promising for the outfielder.
  • Chris Sale threw live batting practice today at Fenway Park, tossing two simulated innings and reaching the 94-95mph threshold with his fastball, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams and other reporters.  Sale is slated for another live BP session at the team’s Spring Training facility this weekend, and a rehab assignment could be the next step for the left-hander.  Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and has been projected to return by late July or early August, so he certainly seems to be on track with that timetable.  The Red Sox are leading the AL East despite some struggles within the rotation, and those issues could be greatly mitigated by a Sale who is healthy and anywhere close to his past superstar form.
  • The Blue Jays’ injury woes have extended to the minors, as GM Ross Atkins said that star catching prospect Gabriel Moreno suffered a “minor fracture” of his thumb after being hit by a pitch.  Atkins told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that Moreno will “most likely” miss several weeks, and surgery hasn’t been ruled out.  Moreno has a whopping .373/.441/.651 slash line and eight homers in 145 PA at Double-A New Hampshire this season, and Baseball America ranks the catcher 32nd on their top-100 prospect list.  While this injury certainly hampers Moreno’s trade value, his development had seemingly made him more of a cornerstone piece for the Jays than a potential trade chip as Toronto approaches the deadline.  Any of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Reese McGuire, or Riley Adams could be more likely than Moreno to be dealt as the Jays look for upgrades on the trade market.

East Notes: Andujar, Nelson, Smith, Turner

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The Yankees announced a pair of roster moves after today’s 7-3 loss to the Indians. For starters, they optioned Nick Nelson to their alternate site. The 25-year-old right-hander appeared in six games, once as an opener, giving up 10 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. The demotion comes after a two-inning, three-earned-run outing in today’s ballgame. In addition, the Yankees activated third baseman Miguel Andujar from the injured list and optioned him to their alternate site. Andujar was beset by a bout of carpal tunnel syndrome in his right wrist. Slowed largely by injures, the 26-year-old has hit just .193/.219/.257 across 114 plate appearances since his breakout rookie season in 2018. Let’s stay on the East Coast, but move over to the Senior Circuit…

  • The Mets activated right-hander Drew Smith from the injured list and optioned him to their alternate site, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). The 27-year-old has been spotty, but intriguing in small samples for the Mets. Though he made just eight appearances last year, he has logged 35 innings in 35 appearances with a 4.11 ERA/4.08 FIP going back through 2018. Injuries have been the bugaboo for Smith, who missed all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His shoulder has been the issue of late, though hopefully, with some time at the alternate site, Smith can prove his readiness and soon get back to a big league mound.
  • Star shortstop Trea Turner was removed from today’s game after getting plunked in the arm. He has a contusion on his left forearm, but testing came back negative, per Jesse Doughtery of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Turner may miss a game, but it sounds as if the Nats expect him to be okay. That’s critical for the Nationals, as Turner has taken over as their 3-hole hitter with Juan Soto on the shelf. The speedy shortstop looks at home in the middle of the order with a 120 wRC+ and 1.0 bWAR produced through 75 plate appearances prior to today’s game.
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