Tommy Kahnle

NL Notes: Pirates, Santana, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Kahnle

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | November 30, 2022 at 8:01pm CDT

The Pirates’ signing of Carlos Santana was in part driven by the team’s belief that next year’s restriction on infield shifts will help to boost the veteran switch-hitter’s production, general manager Ben Cherington told reporters after finalizing the deal this week (link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Beyond that, Santana’s reputation as a leader and mentor for younger players appealed to the club, as did a strong batted-ball profile that featured quality marks in metrics like average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and more.

At one year and $6.725MM, the Santana signing was somewhat remarkably the largest free-agent commitment given out by Cherington since he was hired to guide the Pirates’ latest rebuilding effort back in 2019. Cherington stressed there are other needs to address and that the Pirates, currently projected by Roster Resource to carry just a $54MM payroll, are hopeful of completing some additional deals.

A few more items out of the National League…

The Reds inked local product Luke Maile to a one-year contract, setting the stage for him to serve as Tyler Stephenson’s backup. However, general manager Nick Krall suggested after signing Maile the team isn’t closed off to the possibility of adding a third catcher to the big league roster (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “There is a chance,” Krall noted, pointing out that the addition of the universal designated hitter gives teams the flexibility to more easily work with three backstops. The Reds were reportedly in touch with Tucker Barnhart about a potential reunion before signing Maile, though there’s no indication they’re strongly pursuing him after coming to terms with Maile. Still, Stephenson missed significant time in 2022 with a broken thumb, a concussion and a broken collarbone, and he also has 147 innings of big league experience at first base. There’s some sense to bringing in another catcher — particularly if it’s someone who can handle multiple spots on the diamond to give the Reds some more flexibility.
The Phillies were dealt a tough blow last week with the revelation Bryce Harper required a full Tommy John procedure. The Phils announced Harper was expected to return as a bat-only option by the All-Star Break while playing the outfield again at some point in the second half. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski left open the possibility of an earlier return this week (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic) but suggested he didn’t want to project any kind of more optimistic timeline. “In my own mind, I’m looking at the All-Star break. Anything that’s before that is great,” Dombrowski said. The veteran executive downplayed the need for the Phils to add an outfielder in response to the surgery, pointing out that any pickup would lose his path to everyday playing time once Harper returned. The DH-only role would force Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into the corner outfield regularly to flank center fielder Brandon Marsh, with righty-hitting Matt Vierling on hand as the fourth outfielder. Dombrowski suggested that while the Phils will be “open-minded” to the possibility of adding on the grass, “it’s not a priority for us.“
Adding to the bullpen is certainly a key objective for the Mets, who saw each of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May hit free agency. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that New York is one of several teams to have looked into Tommy Kahnle, although he cautions it’s presently unclear how interested the Mets are in the free agent right-hander. Kahnle is an interesting upside play. He lost almost all of 2020-21 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and renewed arm inflammation cost him almost four months with the Dodgers this past season. Kahnle allowed only four runs in 12 2/3 innings when healthy enough to pitch, though, striking out 14 against three walks. The 33-year-old racked up swinging strikes at a massive 17.2% clip while leaning on his stellar changeup more than three-quarters of the time. Kahnle posted a 3.67 ERA with an elite 35.5% strikeout rate over 72 appearances with the Yankees in 2019, his most recent full season.

Dodgers Activate Tommy Kahnle, Designate Heath Hembree

By Anthony Franco | September 13, 2022 at 6:19pm CDT

The Dodgers announced they’ve designated reliever Heath Hembree for assignment. The move clears active and 40-man roster space for Tommy Kahnle, who was reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

Hembree signed a minor league deal with L.A. this summer after being let go by the Pirates. He made the big league roster a couple weeks back and went on to make six appearances as a Dodger. Hembree was hit hard, surrendering six runs (five earned) on nine hits and three walks while fanning five. It was the continuation of early-season struggles in Pittsburgh, where he was tagged for a 7.16 ERA with more walks than strikeouts through 16 1/3 innings.

The 33-year-old will hit the waiver wire in the next few days. He has more than enough service time to refuse an outright assignment, so it’s likely he’ll return to the open market if he passes through waivers unclaimed. Hembree is playing this season on a $2.125MM salary after signing with the Pirates during Spring Training. Pittsburgh remains on the hook for the majority of that sum, with the Dodgers only paying him the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum for the few weeks he spent on their roster.

Kahnle is back for the first time in nearly four months. The right-hander landed on the injured list in May due to inflammation in his throwing arm. That came on the heels of 2020-21 seasons almost completely lost to arm issues, including Tommy John surgery. Since the conclusion of the 2019 season, Kahnle has pitched in only five MLB games — one with the Yankees in 2020 and four with Los Angeles this May.

On the bright side, Kahnle averaged a solid 95.3 MPH on his heater and was generating plenty of whiffs on his changeup during his brief look earlier in the year. He’d been an excellent high-leverage arm at times during his stint in the Bronx, making him an intriguing option for manager Dave Roberts as the Dodgers turn their attention to the postseason. Kahnle worked seven innings of three-run ball on a rehab stint with Triple-A Oklahoma City, striking out seven against a pair of free passes.

Dodgers Notes: Betts, Ferguson, Treinen, Kahnle, Gonzalez, Duffy

By Mark Polishuk | June 26, 2022 at 7:40pm CDT

It has been a week since the Dodgers placed Mookie Betts on the 10-day injured list due to a right rib fracture, and it doesn’t appear as though the five-time All-Star is much closer to a return. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) that Betts is doing about “the same” after a week of rest, and Betts hasn’t been cleared to start baseball activities.

Given the varied nature of rib injuries, there was no official timeline placed on Betts’ recovery, though Roberts did say there was some initial hope Betts would miss roughly two weeks of action. Unfortunately, it now looks like Betts certainly won’t make that projection, and Roberts didn’t give any updated idea on when the outfielder could be ready.

Looking at the calendar, if Betts has to miss much time beyond just another week, it is possible the team might opt to shut him down through the All-Star break, rather than bring him back for what might be just a few games before the break. Because the All-Star Game is at Dodger Stadium this year, the Dodgers get an early jump on the break, as they don’t play on July 17.

With Betts sidelined, Eddy Alvarez and the newly-acquired Trayce Thompson have formed a platoon to cover one corner outfield slot, while Chris Taylor has seen most of the work in the other corner position. Of course, any method of replacing Betts is going to seem imperfect, considering his status as one of baseball’s best all-around players. Betts was hitting .273/.349/.535 with 17 home runs in 275 plate appearances, and was leading all NL outfielders in All-Star votes, as per the league’s last update.

Roberts also provided updates on several injured Dodgers pitchers both today and in yesterday’s sessions with the media. Caleb Ferguson may be closest to a return, as he tossed a live bullpen session today and is slated to throw another on Wednesday in preparation for a possible activation from the injured list. Ferguson didn’t make his 2022 debut until May, due to a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, and he then went on the IL after six appearances due to forearm tendinitis. Fortunately, it looks like Ferguson could be back within three weeks, as the Dodgers are aiming to activate him for their upcoming June 30-July 3 series against the Padres.

Moving to pitchers on the 60-day IL, Roberts said that Victor Gonzalez (left elbow inflammation), Tommy Kahnle (bone bruise in right elbow), and Danny Duffy (flexor tendon surgery) are all scheduled to return in August. Kahnle has pitched four innings for Los Angeles this season while Gonzalez and Duffy have yet to see any work in 2022 — in Duffy’s case, he hasn’t pitched since July 16, 2021, when he was still a member of the Royals.

The outlook is still unclear about Blake Treinen’s availability, as Treinen threw only three innings before right shoulder inflammation sent him to the IL back in April. The veteran reliever started to play catch earlier in June, but Roberts said today that Treinen is still “weeks away” from being able to throw off a mound. Given the ramp-up time necessary once Treinen does get back on the bump, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to return before 2022 is over.

Dodgers Place Max Muncy On 10-Day IL, Select Kevin Pillar

By Mark Polishuk | May 28, 2022 at 2:08pm CDT

The Dodgers have placed infielder Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list due to left elbow inflammation. Kevin Pillar’s contract was selected from Triple-A to take Muncy’s spot on the active roster, and Los Angeles moved Tommy Kahnle to the 60-day IL to open up a 40-man place for Pillar. In another move, right-hander Michael Grove was called up to the active roster, while right-hander Ryan Pepiot was optioned to Triple-A.

Muncy knocked his elbow into a wall while chasing a foul ball on Wednesday, and he has missed the Dodgers’ last two games. However, Muncy’s elbow has been an ongoing concern since he partially tore his UCL in the final game of the 2021 regular season. Muncy opted against any type of surgery, but clearly hasn’t been his usual self at the dish, batting only .150/.327/.263 over his first 168 plate appearances.

“We all know he’s been grinding with the arm issue,” manager Dave Roberts told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters on Thursday. Roberts implied at the time that a IL stint would be necessary, saying “I’m going to give him some time off to kind of reset the arm…I don’t know if there’s an aggravation in there. But we just have to kind of temper back a little bit.”

Given the lingering nature of Muncy’s elbow problems, it seems likely that he’ll miss more than just the minimum 10 days, as both the infielder and the Dodgers surely want to make sure he’s properly ready before a return to action. It isn’t known if surgery is being considered as a possibility to correct the issue once and for all, as Muncy said back in March that he was told by doctors that surgery wasn’t necessary.

It is a testament to the Dodgers’ depth and overall quality that L.A. is still dominating the league without much contribution from such key players as Muncy, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and with several pitchers (including Clayton Kershaw) on the injured list. However, for Los Angeles to capture another World Series title, they’ll surely need some help from some of these names come October.

Muncy has been mostly splitting time between second and third base. Turner and the hot-hitting Edwin Rios can handle third base, while Muncy’s absence could mean more time for Gavin Lux and Hanser Alberto at the keystone. Chris Taylor has been exclusively used as an outfielder this season, but the longtime utilityman figures to factor into the infield picture as well, especially with Pillar now on the roster to provide outfield depth.

A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Pillar hit .231/.277/.415 over 347 PA with the Mets last season, and both sides declined their ends of options on Pillar’s services for the 2023 season. Pillar had wait until after the lockout to find his next contract and had to settle for a minor league deal, but he’ll now receive a $2.5MM guaranteed salary for making the Dodgers’ active roster.

Pillar had two opportunities to opt out of his minors deal since the Dodgers hadn’t yet called him up to the majors, and a third opt-out date was set for June 1. Beyond the contractual details, Pillar was also doing a lot to force the Dodgers’ hand by ripping up Triple-A pitching — the outfielder has hit .315/.412/.622 over 153 PA with Oklahoma City this season. It’s probably safe to assume that Pillar (career 88 wRC+) won’t keep up that kind of production in the big leagues, but the Dodgers only need him to handle part-time outfield duty while they figure out the position player mix.

Dodgers Sign Pedro Baez To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | May 20, 2022 at 6:40pm CDT

The Dodgers have brought righty Pedro Baez back to the organization on a minor league contract, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The longtime Dodger setup man hit free agency following the 2020 season and inked a two-year, $12.5MM contract with the Astros but was designated for assignment and released by Houston earlier this season. For now, Baez is headed to the Dodgers’ complex in Arizona to work with the staff before being assigned to a minor league affiliate.

That Baez isn’t jumping directly into minor league games shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. The 34-year-old was limited to just 6 2/3 innings in 2021-22 combined thanks largely to a shoulder injury that limited him to just 4 1/3 frames last year. Baez was healthy enough to take the mound for 2 1/3 innings this season, but he was tattooed for six runs in that time and sat at 90.2 mph with his fastball — a catastrophic drop from the 95.9 mph he averaged as recently as 2019.

There’s little harm in the Dodgers taking what amounts to a free look at Baez. He’ll only be owed the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster, as the Astros are otherwise on the hook for the right-hander’s 2022 salary. Given Baez’s track record with the Dodgers — 3.03 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate, 100 holds, 356 innings — it’s understandable that L.A. brass would be hopeful of getting him back into form. Boosting Baez’s heater all the way back into the 96 mph range might be a long shot, but he had success in 2020 even with his heater sitting at a slightly lower 94.4 mph.

The Dodgers don’t necessarily need bullpen help at this point, but teams generally never feel they can have too much depth of this nature. Los Angeles relievers have combined for a 3.22 ERA and 3.29 FIP that rank fifth and fourth in the Majors, respectively, and they also have the game’s fifth-best strikeout rate (26.8%) and third-best walk rate (7.6%). That said, they’re a bit banged up as well, with Blake Treinen out until after the All-Star break, Victor Gonzalez on the 60-day IL and right-hander Tommy Kahnle recently landing on the 15-day IL.

Harris tweets that Kahnle is dealing with a bone bruise in his elbow, which the Dodgers are treating with a one-to-two-week shutdown from throwing. Adding another experienced arm like Baez, even if he’s now something of a project, gives them a lottery ticket of sorts who could potentially help later in the season if he’s able to rebuild some strength and velocity.

Dodgers Announce Series Of Roster Moves

By Steve Adams | May 17, 2022 at 1:32pm CDT

The Dodgers announced a flurry of roster moves prior to today’s doubleheader against the D-backs. Right-hander Mitch White has been reinstated from the Covid-related injured list, with righty Blake Treinen moving to the 60-day injured list in order to open a roster spot. Los Angeles also optioned lefty Caleb Ferguson in favor of lefty Justin Bruihl, who’s been recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City. The Dodgers also placed right-hander Tommy Kahnle on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm and brought righty Ryan Pepiot up as the 27th man for today’s twin bill.

Additional moves seem likely to take place between the day’s games, as manager Dave Roberts announced to reporters that lefty David Price will be activated from the Covid IL for the second game against Arizona (Twitter link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). That’ll require an additional 40-man move.

Treinen’s move to the 60-day injured list further solidifies what Roberts explained earlier in the month when he told reporters that while the right-hander was forgoing an additional visit to a third-party doctor and would instead focus on rehabbing his shoulder with an eye toward returning after the All-Star break. Treinen enjoyed a dominant 2021 season for the Dodgers but pitched just three innings in 2022 before landing on the injured list with the shoulder injury that’ll now officially cost him at least half the season.

Turning to Kahnle, any forearm injury to a pitcher is generally cause for some concern, as they’re often portents to more treacherous diagnoses. In the case of Kahnle, he’s only just returned from Tommy John surgery and has seen his average fastball (95.5 mph) check in a fair bit shy of its pre-surgery levels in 2019 (96.6 mph). The Dodgers signed him to a two-year, $4.75MM deal prior to the 2021 season, knowing he’d miss the first season of the contract while rehabbing that surgery. He’s appeared in just four games for L.A. this season. The team did not provide a timetable for his potential return.

Dodgers Activate Tommy Kahnle

By Darragh McDonald | May 1, 2022 at 1:36pm CDT

The Dodgers announced that right-handed pitcher Tommy Kahnle has been activated off the injured list, relays J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Lefty Garrett Cleavinger has been optioned to create space on the active roster.

Kahnle, 32, last pitched in a major league game July 26, 2020, when with the Yankees. He underwent Tommy John surgery after that and has been working his way back to health ever since. Many pitchers have been able to secure themselves two-year deals while recuperating from TJS, with the team usually backloading the contract due to the fact that they won’t get any contributions in the first year. Kahnle signed such a deal with the Dodgers, earning $750K last year and $3.45MM this year, with a further $750K available in incentives.

Kahnle oscillated between dominating and struggling during the seasons preceding his surgery. In 2017, split between the White Sox and Yankees, he threw 62 2/3 innings with a 2.59 ERA, incredible 37.5% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. The next year, however, just about everything went in the wrong direction, as his ERA shot up to 6.56, with a 28% strikeout rate and 14% walk rate. He was able to swing the pendulum back the other way in 2019, though not quite as dominant as 2017. In 61 1/3 innings, he registered a 3.67 ERA, with 35.5% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He threw just a single inning in 2020 before hitting the injured list.

In 6 1/3 innings of rehab work in the minors so far this year, he’s allowed two earned runs while striking out seven and walking just one. He’ll add another powerful arm to the Dodgers’ bullpen mix, jockeying for high-leverage roles with Daniel Hudson and Brusdar Graterol, forming an impressive bridge to closer Craig Kimbrel.

NL West Notes: Upton, D’backs, Freeland, Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | April 16, 2022 at 9:29am CDT

The Diamondbacks have “considered” a reunion with Justin Upton, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes, though it isn’t yet clear what the 34-year-old outfielder is himself planning for his next step. Upton has given some thought to retiring altogether after the Angels released the veteran last week.

If Upton does continue his career, a return to the D’Backs would represent a nice full-circle moment. Arizona selected Upton with the first overall pick of the 2005 draft, and Upton spent his first six Major League seasons with the Diamondbacks. That tenure included two All-Star appearances for Upton and arguably the finest year of his entire career, as he hit .289/.369/.529 with 31 home runs in 2011 and finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

Upton has been roughly a replacement-level player over his last three seasons with the Angels, but since signing him would cost the Diamondbacks only a prorated minimum salary, it might be a worthwhile flier for a team that has gotten off to a brutal start at the plate. The right-handed hitting Upton represents some lineup balance since many of Arizona’s top outfield choices (David Peralta, Daulton Varsho, Pavin Smith, Jake McCarthy) are all left-handed, plus DH Seth Beer is also a lefty bat.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

By Steve Adams | February 15, 2022 at 12:53pm CDT

We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Dodgers Notes: Friedman, Payroll, Betts, Roberts, Heaney, Injuries

By Mark Polishuk | November 11, 2021 at 10:32am CDT

Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman spoke with reporters (including The Los Angeles Times’ Mike DiGiovanna, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, and The Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett) about several topics surrounding the team, including how much payroll might be available to acquire or re-sign premium players this winter. Unsurprisingly, Friedman didn’t state any kind of dollar figure, noting that he has yet to receive an official budget for 2022. That said, he noted that “our [ownership] group has demonstrated at every single turn its strong desire to win, and this year will be no different. What that means in terms of an actual payroll number, I’m not sure, but I feel confident we’ll have the requisite talent to be a real championship competitor.”

By far the biggest spenders in baseball in 2021, the Dodgers soared over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold with an approximated $275MM tax number. While it isn’t clear if L.A. will quite hit those payroll heights again, it seems very likely that the Dodgers will pay more tax penalties next year considering how much money is already on their books. Of course, we also don’t know what the luxury tax threshold will even be next year, or if the CBT will be altered as players and owners negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement.

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