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White Sox Notes: Anderson, Alberto, Crochet, Hendriks, Moncada

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The White Sox provided reporters with some updates on various injured players and their paths to rejoining the club, with James Fegan of The Athletic among those to relay the information (Twitter links). The ones closest to return are infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto, as they will be starting rehab assignments with Triple-A Charlotte tomorrow.

Anderson, 30 in June, has been on the injured list since April 11 due to a knee sprain. He was initially estimated to miss between two and four weeks, so it’s still possible for him to come back in that time frame. One of the club’s better players, his absence has corresponded with a dreadful downward slide in the standings. The Sox were 5-6 when he hit the shelf but have gone just 2-12 since, now sporting a record of 7-18.

The club is obviously better when Anderson is a part of it. Dating back to the start of 2019, he has 51 home runs and 58 stolen bases. His .317/.346/.471 batting line in that time amounts to a wRC+ of 122. Any club would be worse off when subtracting that kind of production, but his replacements have fared quite poorly. With him out of action, Elvis Andrus has become the everyday shortstop, but he’s hitting just .195/.260/.230 on the year for a wRC+ of 37. The second base position, which was previously covered by Andrus, has been mostly split between Romy González and Lenyn Sosa in that time. González is currently hitting .129/.129/.129 for a wRC+ of -39 while Sosa’s line is .122/.143/.220, -8 wRC+.

The tremendous drop-off from Anderson’s typical production to those numbers has surely played a role in the club’s recent struggles, making his imminent return fantastic news for the club. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate this summer if they fail to return to contention, given he’s in the final guaranteed season of his contract. However, the club has an affordable $14MM option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout.

There’s also good news in the return of Albero, on the IL with a quad strain, though he’s more of a role player. His career batting line of .271/.293/.380 translates to a wRC+ of 77, which isn’t terribly exciting but would still mean the club would have options to turn to when others are struggling.

Just slightly behind those two is left-hander Garrett Crochet, who missed all of last year due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He’s getting a check-up in Chicago but would be approved for his own rehab assignment if everything looks good there. The southpaw has a career 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, striking out 29% of batters faced against a 10.7% walk rate. Getting him back in the bullpen would surely give the club a nice boost back there.

Another boost for the bullpen could be coming as right-hander Liam Hendriks, who has missed all of this season so far while undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, though he recently shared the good news that he’s been declared cancer free. He’s just slightly behind Crochet, as he will report to Chicago for his own pre-rehab checkup next week. He’s become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in recent years, racking up 119 saves in the previous four seasons with a 2.26 ERA and 38.8% strikeout rate in that time.

While it’s great that those four players are making progress towards their respective returns, there’s one bit of news that’s less encouraging, per Fegan. Third baseman Yoán Moncada, who was been on the injured list for about two weeks due to back tightness, has been diagnosed with a protruding disc that is touching a nerve and causing pain in his glutes. While the issue is supposedly improving, Moncada still won’t be starting a rehab assignment during the current eight-game homestand that begins tonight. General manager Rick Hahn said that these issues don’t require offseason surgery about 80% of the time.

That’s surely not ideal information since Moncada’s IL placement originally seemed to be fairly precautionary. There was a period of a few days where it seemed he and the club were hoping to avoid an IL stint altogether but it’s now clearly more serious than initially thought. More updates will surely be forthcoming but it doesn’t seem like he’s close to a return and future surgery isn’t completely off the table.

Moncada has been fairly hot-and-cold in his career but was on a heater this year before the injury popped up, hitting .308/.325/.564 through his first nine games. Thankfully, his absence hasn’t created as much of a hole in the lineup as Anderson’s has, as Jake Burger has filled in with a .213/.309/.596 showing. Still, it’s a discouraging update on a key member of the core for a club that was held back by significant injuries last year and has been battling them again this year. His contract runs through 2024 with a $25MM option for 2025 that has a $5MM buyout.

White Sox Place Tim Anderson On Injured List

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The White Sox announced Tuesday that shortstop Tim Anderson has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a sprain in his left knee. He’s expected to miss between two and four weeks of action, per the team. Infielder Lenyn Sosa is up from Triple-A Charlotte to take Anderson’s spot on the active roster.

Anderson appeared to suffer the injury during yesterday’s game against the Twins, when he attempted to corral an errant throw from Hanser Alberto in a poorly executed rundown between second and third base (video link). He originally remained in the game and finished out the inning, but Anderson was later lifted for a pinch-hitter.

The 29-year-old Anderson is out to a nice start, batting .298/.327/.404 and a perfect 5-for-5 showing in stolen bases to begin his 2023 campaign. His injury will likely slide Elvis Andrus over to shortstop or possibly open the door for Sosa to take some reps at the position. If it’s indeed Andrus taking the reins at short, as he did in 2022 when Anderson was injured, then second base reps will fall to a combination of Sosa, Alberto and Romy Gonzalez.

Any absence is notable for Anderson, who’s steadily been one of the best-hitting shortstops in the game for the past four years. Dating back to 2019, Anderson has posted at least a .301 batting average, .338 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage in every season. He’s a collective .317/.346/.471 hitter in just shy of 1700 plate appearances dating back to 2019, and his 122 wRC+ in that time (indicating he’s been 22% better than an average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment) trails only six other shortstops: Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Bo Bichette and Corey Seager.

Injuries have regularly hampered the White Sox over the past several seasons, and Anderson now becomes the second key member of the lineup on the injured list, joining slugger Eloy Jimenez, who’s expected to be sidelined into late April with a low-grade hamstring strain. The Sox are also currently missing relievers Liam Hendriks, Garrett Crochet, Joe Kelly and Matt Foster.

The Sox made the easy call to pick up a $12.5MM option on Anderson at the end of the 2023 season, and they’ll have a $14MM option or $1MM buyout over his 2024 campaign as well. Given Anderson’s overall track record, it’s hard to imagine Sox buying him out. The presence of that option at least makes it worth keeping a close eye on how Anderson recovers from this issue, but a one-year deal at that rate remains a relative bargain for a player of his caliber, so long as he’s healthy.

Tim Anderson Hoping For Extension Talks With White Sox

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White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson is hoping for a healthier season after a torn tendon in his left middle finger ended his 2022 campaign at the beginning of August. Now healthy and back in camp, the two-time All-Star also expressed a desire to sort out his long-term contractual status.

Speaking with Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Anderson noted he “kind of (wants) to know where (his) feet are going to be at the next whatever years it is.” The former batting champion said he’s “so comfortable” in Chicago and hopeful of getting another deal done as quickly as possibly. “I have a lot of things that are going on with kids and just family. Being comfortable is huge for me,” he told Merkin. “No, I’m not promoting ‘pay me.’ It’s just that’s what’s really going on. Everybody knows I want to be here. It’s no secret.”

Whether the organization has a similar level of urgency isn’t known. Chicago is not facing Anderson’s imminent departure. The sides have already worked out one long-term deal, guaranteeing him $25MM back in March 2017 at a time when he had less than one year of major league service. He’s under contract for $12.5MM for the upcoming season and has a $14MM club option (or a $1MM buyout) for the 2024 campaign. It’d take a disastrous season for the club to consider the buyout, as the net $13MM decision is well below Anderson’s present open market value.

With Anderson far more established and much closer to free agency than he was at the time of his first extension, any new deal would be at a completely different level financially. Anderson told Merkin he’s not interested in signing a below-market pact to ensure an agreement gets done. “No discounts. That’s not to … put anything out there that might seem negative or think I want the most money. I just want to be treated fair and want both ends to be happy like we did last time, whichever way it goes,” he said. “This has been home. This is all I know. I would be disappointed if that came to an end. But at the end of the day, I understand the process.”

If he were to simply play out his current deal (assuming the ’24 option is exercised), Anderson would first reach free agency in advance of his age-31 season. That’s two years older than Trevor Story and Javier Báez were when signing their free agent deals over the 2021-22 offseason and two years older than Dansby Swanson was this winter. Anderson would be the same age as Marcus Semien was two offseasons back.

Each of those players secured deals of six-plus years with guarantees in the $140MM to $180MM range. Anderson isn’t the same style of hitter as those other players, hitting for a little less power but more consistently running excellent batting averages than each. He’s been similarly effective overall though.

Since the start of the 2019 season, Anderson owns a .318/.347/.473 line in over 1600 plate appearances. His 123 wRC+ indicates that production checks in 23 percentage points above that of the league average batter. His 2022 campaign was a little down relative to his previous three seasons, with a .301/.339/.395 line before his season-ending hand injury. Nevertheless, the broader track record at the dish is in line with those of Semien, Story and Báez and a little above Swanson’s. Semien, Story and Báez each had a wRC+ between 113 and 119 over the four-year stretch preceding their free agent deals, while Swanson had a cumulative 104 mark but had posted his three best seasons leading up to free agency.

Anderson is perhaps not the same caliber of defender as Báez or Swanson, though he typically rates as a slightly above-average shortstop by public metrics like DRS and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Story and Semien each came with questions about whether they were better suited for second base in the relatively near future. There aren’t expected to be those same concerns with Anderson.

Those comparisons lend a rough idea to the kind of range Anderson and his reps could target in free agency. There’s additional risk with Anderson considering he’s still two years from the open market, and the ChiSox may be reluctant to offer true market value prices to buy out his mid-30’s this far in advance. That said, any extension would require the largest investment in franchise history by a wide margin. The White Sox have never guaranteed above $75MM to an individual player — on their five-year deal with Andrew Benintendi this winter — and Anderson could reasonably look to more than double that amount.

If the Sox don’t get an extension done this spring, there’s at least some chance Anderson’s future with the organization could come into doubt by the middle of the season. Chicago showed no interest in trading him this offseason, an unsurprising stance for a club counting on a return to contention after an injury-marred year that culminated in an average showing. If they struggle early in the upcoming season and fall out of the playoff mix, the organization could have to consider larger-scale changes as the deadline nears. The Sox have arguably the game’s worst farm system and key players like Anderson, Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn are all within two years of free agency. Another non-competitive season could lead the front office to consider a reboot during the summer.

Chicago is certainly hoping it doesn’t come to that, either because a long-term deal for Anderson takes a trade firmly off the table or the club is in strong enough position to buy at the deadline. The Sox have a decent amount of payroll flexibility past the 2024 campaign, with only Benintendi ($16.5MM) and Luis Robert ($15MM) under guaranteed deals. Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn and Garrett Crochet will be deep into their arbitration seasons by then, however, and the organization will have to retain or replace Giolito, Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez. There’s opportunity but a decent number of decisions facing general manager Rick Hahn and his staff as things play out.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

White Sox Not Planning To Trade Tim Anderson

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The White Sox have told interested teams they have no plans to trade shortstop Tim Anderson this offseason, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 29-year-old will be back for an eighth season on Chicago’s south side.

It’d have been more surprising if the Sox were listening to offers on Anderson, who has emerged as a catalyst at the top of the lineup. He’s been selected to the All-Star Game in each of the past two seasons, and he finished seventh in AL MVP balloting during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. The righty-hitting infielder has hit above .300 four years running, posting above-average offensive marks overall.

Despite the second consecutive All-Star nomination, Anderson’s actually coming off a relative down season. He hit .301 but posted more pedestrian marks in on-base percentage (.339) and slugging (.395). His six home runs proved a career low, due in large part to a late-season injury that cut his year short. Anderson missed the season’s final couple months after suffering a tendon injury in his left middle finger, an issue that required surgery.

Still, there’s little question he’d have found significant appeal on the trade market. There’s no expectation the injury will affect him next season, and he’s playing on an eminently affordable contract. The Sox exercised a $12.5MM option on his services for 2023, and his contract also contains a $14MM club option for 2024. Barring injury or an unexpected down year, next year’s option should also be an easy call for the team to trigger.

Chicago had a disappointing season overall, finishing the 2022 campaign at 81-81 despite entering the season as AL Central favorites. They’re trying to rebound and make another run at the division, and it’s easy enough to understand why they wouldn’t subtract one of their top position players as part of that effort. At the same time, Chicago general manager Rick Hahn acknowledged at this week’s Winter Meetings the front office would have to be more open than they were previously to shaking up the roster after a down year (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). To that end, they’ve reportedly had some trade discussions about closer Liam Hendriks with other teams, although there’s no suggestion they’re actively shopping the All-Star righty.

Hahn has indicated on a few occasions the Sox are likelier to make any marquee additions via trade than free agency. James Fegan of the Athletic has previously reported they hope to open the season with a player payroll around $180MM. Roster Resource projects their payroll in the $179MM range at present, so the front office likely doesn’t have much breathing room at its disposal. Van Schouwen writes that the Sox are still seeking corner outfield and second base help, meaning they could potentially look to deal players on loftier salaries to free some spending room. Anderson apparently won’t be one of the players under consideration for such a deal though.

Teams seeking shortstop help but unwilling to pay top-of-the-market prices for Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson are left with few alternatives. Elvis Andrus is the clear next-best shortstop available in free agency, while the trade market doesn’t have many obvious candidates. Amed Rosario and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are among the players who could theoretically be available, but neither has been firmly linked to any trade rumors this offseason. Meanwhile, Anderson and Milwaukee star Willy Adames seem as if they’ll stay put despite some early-offseason speculation they might be made available.

White Sox Exercise Tim Anderson’s Club Option, Decline Option On Josh Harrison

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TODAY: The White Sox officially announced that Anderson’s option has been exercised.  In addition, the Sox announced that they declined their $5.5MM club option on Josh Harrison, instead paying the veteran a $1.5MM buyout.

NOVEMBER 6: The White Sox intend to pick up shortstop Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option for the 2023 season, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.

As recently discussed in Tim Dierkes’ Offseason Outlook, the decision to pick up Anderson’s club option was relatively easy, as the two-time All-Star has been a strong shortstop when healthy. However, Anderson has had a tough time staying on the field. Since 2019, the 29-year-old has dealt with a right ankle injury, two right groin injuries, two left hamstring injuries, and a sagittal band tear on his left middle finger. Furthermore, since 2019 Anderson has not appeared in over 123 games, being limited to 123 games in both 2019 and 2021, while only playing 79 games in 2022.

But when he’s on the field, he’s worth every penny. Over the past four seasons, Anderson has put up a collective .318/.347/.474 slash line, earning two All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger. Additionally, during the past four seasons, Anderson has a wRC+ of 123 — the seventh-highest mark among shortstops. While Anderson put up a weaker .301/.339/.398 slash line in 2022, he reduced his strikeout rate to an extremely low 15.7% — 7.5% lower than his career mark.

With the top free agent shortstops likely commanding salaries of $30MM or greater, Anderson is a quality bargain for a White Sox team looking to return to playoffs after falling flat in 2022.

White Sox Shut Down Tim Anderson For Season

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The White Sox are shutting down star shortstop Tim Anderson for the season, acting manager Miguel Cairo informed reporters (including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Anderson hasn’t played since August 9, when he suffered a tendon injury in his left middle finger that required surgical repair.

Chicago had held out hope for the former batting champion to make it back as recently as last week, but the team’s ongoing free fall changed the equation. The Sox were within a game and a half in the AL Central race as recently as September 10, but they’ve gone 4-10 since that point to end any hope they had of a playoff berth. A sweep at the hands of the Guardians last week sewed up the division for Cleveland. The White Sox are still mathematically alive in the Wild Card race, but they could be officially eliminated as soon as tomorrow.

As they’re now playing out the string, there’s little incentive for the White Sox to push Anderson back onto the field. Veteran Elvis Andrus, who signed for the stretch run a couple days after being released by the A’s in mid-August, will finish the year as the shortstop. Andrus is headed for free agency at season’s end, and it seems likely he’ll depart in search of a clearer path to playing time elsewhere this winter.

Anderson finishes the season with a .301/.339/.395 line across 351 plate appearances. That’s still above-average production, but it was the two-time All-Star’s least valuable campaign since 2018. After some offensive inconsistency early in his career, Anderson broke out as one of the game’s top shortstops with a .335/.357/.508 showing in 2019. He’s remained at that level the past few years, consistently hitting above .300 while rating as a solid defender and high-end baserunner.

The 2022 campaign is the final guaranteed year on the contract extension Anderson inked back in 2017. The Sox can keep him around for another two seasons via eminently affordable club options, though. They’re certain to bring him back for $12.5MM next year in lieu of a $1MM buyout, and they hold a $14MM option on his services for 2024.

Central Notes: Francona, Anderson, Bednar, Cubs

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Terry Francona’s contract is up after the season, and the veteran manager told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that he has been in talks with team officials about his future with the Guardians.  It seems basically a foregone conclusion that Francona will remain as the Guards’ skipper beyond 2022, and yet given Francona’s multiple health issues, he is cognizant about the potential end of his managerial career.  “I want to enjoy what I’m doing. It’s getting harder to do that, just because physically it’s harder,” Francona said.  “I just want to be careful.  And at the same time, I want to be fair to the team.”  The respect goes both ways with Cleveland’s front office, as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said that “I want to make sure [Francona] never feels he has this obligation to keep doing the job because he owes us anything.  I want him to do what’s best for him.”

Antonetti and team owner Paul Dolan have both said in the past that Francona can manage the Guardians for essentially as long as he feels up to the job, while Francona told Rosenthal that he might have already retired if he had been with any other team.  Speculatively, it would seem like any sort of formal contract extension between the two sides could perhaps take the form of a one-year deal with a rolling option, to be exercised should Francona feel he is ready to keep managing beyond 2023.  A decision might not be made until after Francona’s latest medical procedure takes place in the offseason — he is scheduled to have drains removed from his back, and Francona estimates that this will be roughly his 46th surgery.

Some items from around both the AL and NL Central divisions….

  • Back on August 11, Tim Anderson underwent surgery to fix a torn ligament in his left middle finger, and White Sox acting manager Miguel Cairo told reporters (including Ryan Taylor of NBC Sports Chicago) today that Anderson was scheduled to visit a hand specialist on Tuesday.  “We’re going to see from there” what the next step is in Anderson’s rehab, Cairo said, adding that the shortstop is “doing good.”  Anderson was hitting .301/.339/.395 over his first 351 plate appearances of the season.  Assuming the visit with the specialist goes well, there should still be time for Anderson to properly rehab and get back to the White Sox before the season is over, thus giving the Sox a big late boost in their push for the AL Central crown.
  • While the Pirates aren’t in a pennant race, they’re also expecting a key player back in closer David Bednar, as GM Ben Cherington said in an interview with 93.7 The Fan radio (hat tip to MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos).  Bednar has been out of action since late July due to lower back inflammation, but Bednar threw a bullpen session yesterday and Cherington said Bednar could begin a rehab assignment this week.  The right-hander has emerged as a major bullpen weapon (and popular trade ask) over the last two seasons, with Bednar posting a 2.70 ERA and a superb 33.5% strikeout rate over 46 2/3 innings in 2022.
  • The Cubs’ season “has been a success” in the view of chairman Tom Ricketts, who told The Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan and other reporters that he has been impressed by the team’s progress in bringing along its young players and young pitchers.  Since the Cubs’ last rebuild resulted in the 2016 World Series championship, Ricketts feels that “having done it once, and largely with the same people, it gives me a lot of confidence that we’ll do it the right way again.”  As to whether or not the Cubs will start to invest more into payroll this winter, Ricketts somewhat vaguely said that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has “got a lot of flexibility, and we’ll let him do it,” adding that the “ball is in Jed’s court when it comes to how and where” any funds are invested.  Of course, this isn’t exactly a full-on declaration that the Cubs are ready to start spending big, as while Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman were two more expensive additions last winter, Hoyer stuck mostly to less-costly, shorter-term free agents.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

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The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

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