Tim Anderson

Poll: What Should The White Sox Do With Tim Anderson?

By Darragh McDonald | July 11, 2023 at 3:20pm CDT

The White Sox seem to be gradually accepting that this isn’t their year. A miserable 8-21 start in March and April put them in a bad spot out of the gate. They managed to stay afloat by going 15-14 in May and then 13-13 in June, keeping them near contention in a weak American League Central division. But they slid a bit further recently, going 2-6 in July prior to the All-Star break. Their overall record of 38-54 has them eight games back in the division and even further back in the Wild Card race.

As of about a month ago, it was reported that they were hoping to limit their upcoming summer sell-off to just rental players. But reporting from yesterday indicates they have widened that stance, now willing to trade just about anyone on the roster apart from Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jiménez.

One of the more interesting trade candidates they will have to consider is shortstop Tim Anderson. The extension he signed with the club back in 2017 was guaranteed through 2022 with a pair of club options. The Sox triggered the 2023 option and still have the potential to do so again for 2024.

The decision to trigger the first option was an easy one, as Anderson had emerged as a solid above-average regular for the club over the course of his deal. He was a solid speed-and-defense player in the first couple of years but subpar at the plate. He took a huge step forward in 2019 and maintained it in the years to come. From 2019 to 2022, he hit .318/.347/.473 for a wRC+ of 123, indicating he was 23% above league average. When combined with his baserunning and glovework, he was able to produce 13.6 wins above replacement in 374 games, according to the calculations of FanGraphs.

At the end of last season, the Sox had to decide between triggering a $12.5MM option for 2023 or buying him out for $1MM. With many premier shortstops earning north of $30MM annually, that price point made Anderson a bargain. Unfortunately, this year has been a nightmare for him. He’s yet to hit a home run this season and is batting .223/.259/.263 overall for a wRC+ of just 43, the worst production in the majors among players with at least 250 plate appearances. The advanced defensive metrics also consider him to be below average this year. Those metrics can be fickle on a year-to-year basis but this would be the second straight season they have all had him in the negative range.

On the offensive side of things, if one wanted to look for signs of hope, there are things to squint at. Anderson’s Statcast numbers aren’t drastically different from previous seasons. His average exit velocity of 88.3 mph is in the same range as where he’s been in recent years and is even above his career average of 87.5. His 109.6 mph max exit velo and 40.9% hard hit rate are similar to other seasons as well. His sprint feet of 27.2 feet per second is about a foot shy of his norms, but that’s not too shocking given that he missed about three weeks with a left knee sprain.

What seems to be a real factor is launch angle, which is averaging 0.5 degrees this year, well below his career average of 6.6. His 65.1% ground ball rate is well above the 42.5% league average. Anderson has always had above-average grounder rates but was at 52% for his career coming into this campaign. All of that would perhaps explain why he doesn’t have a home run and why his .284 batting average on balls in play is so far beneath the .376 mark he had during his strong 2019-2022 stretch.

Perhaps Anderson can produce better results going forward just by pounding the ball into the dirt less often. Regardless, the Sox have a few weeks to decide between a few different paths. One is to trade Anderson, which they are apparently open to doing, since he wasn’t listed as one of the players that are off-limits. However, doing so would mean selling when his value is at an extremely low ebb, given his awful results so far this year.

It’s possible that some clubs are willing to overlook the rough season and take a shot on him. The upcoming free agent class is very light on position players, meaning the crop of available trade candidates is likely to be similar. There are several contenders who could use middle infield reinforcements, such as the Giants, Marlins, Angels, Dodgers and Brewers. Those clubs may not have too many options for lining up on trades. The Cardinals will likely listen to offers on Paul DeJong, but he has his own issues with inconsistency and is no guarantee to be moved with a couple of club options remaining. Teams like the Orioles and Guardians have many infield prospects and could be open trading from their respective surpluses, but they would likely be looking to part with the players who aren’t helping them right now.

Perhaps that leads to someone making the Sox an intriguing offer, but it will undoubtedly be less than what they could have gotten in the past or could potentially get in the future. The other path would be to hang onto Anderson and hope he finishes strong enough for them to justify triggering his $14MM option for 2024 instead of the $1MM buyout. If he’s able to return to his previous level of performance, that would still be good value.

If Anderson were indeed able to get back to being a solid everyday player, he could perhaps help the club have better outcomes next year. Even if the club stayed on the outside of a playoff race, he could increase his trade value relative to where it is today. But the risk would be in hanging onto him and spending $13MM on another disappointing season. There’s also the injury question to consider, as various ailments have prevented Anderson from tallying 125 games in any individual season since 2018. He’s since battled a right ankle injury, two right groin injuries, two left hamstring injuries, a sagittal band tear on his left middle finger and this year’s left knee sprain.

The third path would be to sign Anderson to an extension, something he openly pined for back in February. No deal has come together up until this point and Anderson’s leverage has surely dropped dramatically since then, when he said there would be “no discounts” and that he wanted to be “treated fair.” It’s unknown if the Sox ever had any formal negotiations with Anderson’s camp, but any offers they may have made at that point would undoubtedly be dropped if talks resumed. If the club believed in Anderson’s ability to get back on track, perhaps they would try to buy low and get him to agree to a lengthier pact, though doing so would essentially carry the same risks as simply triggering his 2024 option, only more so.

Each path comes with its own upsides and downsides, depending on what the future holds. Holding onto him for 2024 or longer is the smart thing if he bounces back but the wrong move if he doesn’t, while the inverse is true of the trading path. What do you think is the right choice? Have your say in the poll below. (Link to poll for app users)

Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans

By Anthony Franco | July 10, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.

Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.

Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.

Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.

The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.

Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.

The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.

Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.

Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.

One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.

While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.

Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.

Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.

There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.

AL Central Notes: Anderson, Buxton, E-Rod, Manning

By Mark Polishuk | June 25, 2023 at 10:39am CDT

Over the first 824 games of his Major League career, Tim Anderson had almost exclusively as a shortstop, with a couple of DH days thrown into the mix. However, Anderson has now made two consecutive starts at second base, as a way of getting the veteran into the White Sox lineup despite some lingering soreness in his right throwing shoulder. Sox manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com’s Scott Merkin and other reporters that “all intentions are for [Anderson] to go back to shortstop” eventually, and that the club was monitoring Anderson’s shoulder on a day-to-day basis.

Considering Chicago’s 33-45 record, it can’t be ignored that Anderson’s temporary move to the keystone could also serve as a showcase for any interested trade partners. As per most public defensive metrics, Anderson has had subpar glovework as a shortstop over the last two seasons, and a move to second base might eventually be required as Anderson (who turned 30 years old two days ago) gets deeper into his career. A team doubtful of Anderson’s shortstop defense could be more keen on using him as a second baseman, or an ability to shuttle between both positions might also boost the former All-Star’ trade value given how clubs prize versatile players. That said, offense is a bigger concern than defense for Anderson at this point, since he has struggled to a .241/.279/.282 slash line over 229 plate appearances while missing about three weeks on the injured list with a left knee sprain. 2023 is the final guaranteed year of Anderson’s contract, as the White Sox hold a $14MM club option on his services for 2024.

White Sox Reportedly Only Willing To Trade Rental Players

By Darragh McDonald | June 16, 2023 at 12:05pm CDT

The White Sox are potentially lined up to be sellers at the deadline, though exactly how much they commit to that task remains to be seen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that, as of right now, they might only be willing to move impending free agents. Those plans could always change as discussions take place, but it’s a noteworthy stance at the moment. The trade deadline is August 1.

At this point, it’s not even necessarily a lock that the White Sox will be sellers at all. Despite their poor 30-40 record, they are only 5.5 games back of the Twins in the weak American League Central division. But the Wild Card race is much stronger, putting them 9.5 games out of a spot there.

A hot streak could get them right back in the divisional race but those have been hard to come by this season and the front office needs to at least consider the possibility that they stay on the outside looking in. Like all clubs, the players on the roster have varied contractual situations that affect the trade calculus. It seems that the club is currently leaning towards trading players on expiring contracts but keeping players with more control in order to take another shot at contending next year.

Even by limiting themselves to a softer sell, they would still have plenty of players to discuss in trade talks. Lucas Giolito, Mike Clevinger, Yasmani Grandal, Elvis Andrus, Reynaldo López and Keynan Middleton are all set to reach free agency this winter and would be the club’s best trade chips. Clevinger’s deal has a mutual option for 2024 but those are rarely picked up by both parties.

Giolito would be one of the top names on the market this summer if he were available, having established himself as a reliable and effective starter in recent years. In each season from 2019 to 2021, he had an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. That figure jumped to 4.90 last year, but that coincided with his batting average on balls in play jumping to .340, well above any of his previous seasons. This year, he’s dropped his ERA right back down to his norm as he’s at 3.54 through 14 starts.

Now 28 years old, Giolito has gone year-to-year in arbitration. He’s now in his third and final arb year, making $10.4MM. By the time the deadline rolls around, there will be roughly $3.5MM left to be paid out.

Just about every contender will be looking to bolster their rotation for the final months of the season and the playoffs, which should give Giolito widespread interest. Even teams on the lower end of the spending spectrum could fit that salary figure onto their books, meaning few clubs would be eliminated from the list of logical suitors. That makes Giolito the White Sox’ best chance at recouping some future value from what could end up being a disappointing season.

Some of those other names may have some appeal as well. Clevinger has a 3.88 ERA but with subpar peripherals, striking out 19.3% of opponents while walking 9.5%. A .275 batting average on balls in play and 81.2% strand rate are helping him out, with his 4.89 FIP and 5.07 SIERA less optimistic. He’s making a salary of $8MM this year but has a $4MM buyout on his mutual option. He has a bit of an uncertain health outlook at the moment, as he was removed from his most recent start due to biceps soreness. It seems there’s no structural damage, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, but he might still land on the injured list.

Grandal struggled last year but is having a decent bounce back, hitting .271/.330/.410 so far this year for a wRC+ of 106. Trading catchers at midseason can be tricky since they would then have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. However, Grandal is 34 years old and hits well enough that it could make sense for him to factor into a club’s designated hitter mix, especially since he’s a switch-hitter. The final year of his four-year deal pays him $18.25MM annually.

Andrus is also an impending free agent but his interest will surely be muted as he’s hitting .196/.277/.247 this year. López has a 5.10 ERA but his 28.3% strikeout rate will surely lead to some intrigue. Middleton’s 1.93 ERA is buoyed by an unsustainable 96.3% strand rate but he is striking out 31.9% of opponents and getting grounders at a 54.5% clip. All three of these players are making modest salaries of less than $4MM this year.

There are also a couple of borderline cases who could be considered rentals. The Sox have an $18MM option on Lance Lynn for next year with a $1MM buyout. His 6.75 ERA this year makes it less likely that gets picked up but it also diminishes his trade appeal. Joe Kelly is in a somewhat similar situation as he can be kept around for 2024 via a $9.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout. He has a 4.57 ERA but strong peripherals and a 53.7% strand rate, leading to a 2.86 FIP and 2.80 SIERA.

The club also has a $15MM option on Liam Hendriks, though with a $15MM buyout. The only difference is that triggering the buyout would allow them to spread the payment out over 10 years instead of just in 2024. He’s been floated as a trade candidate this summer but he’s currently on the injured list due to inflammation in his pitching elbow. Given the injury, the PR hit of trading him away after his feel-good return from cancer and that buyout, it seems likely that he’s with the Sox again next year.

If the Sox ultimately stick to their plan of only trading rentals, that would mean that other speculative trade candidates are off the table. Many observers have wondered if the club would consider moving shortstop Tim Anderson, who can be retained for 2024 via a $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout. Trading him now would be a difficult decision because it would hurt the club’s chances of returning to contention in 2024 and the return would surely be diminished since he’s hitting just .251/.290/.296 this year. Instead of trading him when his value is at a low ebb, there would be sense in the club hanging onto him and hoping for a return to form next year.

Dylan Cease has also been suggested as a trade candidate but that would require the club to really commit to a lengthier rebuild. He still has two more passes through arbitration to go and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2025. His ERA has almost doubled from last year’s 2.20 to this year’s 4.31 figure, but he’s still getting strikeouts at an above-average 26.2% rate. They would surely get a huge haul for him if they decided to move him, but it doesn’t seem as though that’s on the table right now.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL Central

By Anthony Franco | June 6, 2023 at 11:10am CDT

Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’re continuing our division by division series moving through the Junior Circuit. Next up, the AL Central, where only three of five teams have players with contracts that contain 2024 options.

Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East

Chicago White Sox

Lance Lynn: $18MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Lynn signed a $38MM extension midway through the 2021 season. He was en route to a third-place Cy Young finish at the time but has seen his results go backwards over the past two years. He still managed a solid 3.99 ERA through 121 2/3 innings last season, but this year has been far tougher. The 36-year-old has been tagged for a personal-worst 6.55 ERA in his first 12 starts.

The righty is striking out a quarter of opponents against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. His results on batted balls have been disastrous, though. He’s surrendering a .335 batting average on balls in play and has already given up 15 home runs, tied for third-most in the majors. There’s probably some amount of misfortune there, but Lynn’s a fly-ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of hard contact while pitching in a homer-friendly home park. It’s been a rough couple months and nowhere near the level the Sox would need to consider an option with a net $17MM decision.

Liam Hendriks: $15MM club option ($15MM buyout)

Hendriks’ free agent deal contained a unique fourth year in which the option price and the buyout were valued the same. That was mostly an accounting measure designed to front-load the Sox’s luxury tax hit to afford more CBT breathing room in 2024. The only material difference at this point is that buying Hendriks out would allow the Sox to pay him in installments over a 10-year period as opposed to a $15MM salary to be disbursed in during the ’24 season.

There’s practically no question the White Sox are going to exercise this. Hendriks came back from a non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis to return to pitching at the major league level within a matter of months. He’s one of the best relievers in the game when at his peak.

Tim Anderson: $14MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Anderson’s option call is almost as obvious as the Hendriks decision. The 29-year-old is typically one of the game’s best-hitting shortstops, an annual threat to bat over .300 with plus baserunning and typically solid defense. This hasn’t been a standard Anderson season. He’s off to a modest .273/.313/.320 start and is without a home run in 42 games. He missed a few weeks with a left knee sprain, and defensive metrics have soured on his glovework.

Rough couple months aside, a $13MM price point is still strong value for a player of Anderson’s caliber. He hit .318/.347/.473 between 2019-22 and earned a pair of All-Star nods. Next year’s free agent shortstop class is also incredibly thin, meaning there aren’t likely to be many alternatives available. Even if 2019-22 proves to be Anderson’s peak, a one-year, net $13MM decision is still an easy call for the team.

Mike Clevinger: $12MM mutual option ($4MM buyout)

The White Sox signed Clevinger to a $12MM free agent deal over the winter. They were hoping to buy low on a return to form for the righty as he further distanced himself from 2020 Tommy John surgery. It hasn’t really materialized, as Clevinger’s performance in Chicago isn’t far off last year’s work in San Diego.

Through 10 starts, the 32-year-old has a 4.13 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. He’s posted slightly below-average strikeout and grounder rates while walking 10% of opposing hitters. This year’s 9.1% swinging-strike rate is a career low. He’s posting competent fifth starter results, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely he’ll recapture the upper mid-rotation upside of his Cleveland days.

It’s an $8MM decision on the option after accounting for the buyout. That’s a reasonable price point for a back-of-the-rotation arm. The likes of Zach Davies, Johnny Cueto and Kyle Gibson all landed between $5MM and $10MM last offseason, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM pact. Clevinger looks likely to land in that area. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so odds are Clevinger is headed back to free agency. His next contract just might land around there regardless.

Joe Kelly: $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Kelly has had a confounding two seasons in Chicago. Signed to a two-year, $17MM deal coming out of the lockout, he’s posted rough run prevention marks despite excellent peripherals. Kelly carries a 5.43 ERA through 54 2/3 innings since the start of 2022. That’s belied by elite strikeout (32.1%) and ground-ball (62.7%) numbers. Huge walk totals at least partially explained his 2022 struggles, but Kelly has a 4.08 ERA this season despite only walking two of the 70 batters he’s faced.

The right-hander has been an enigmatic player throughout his career. Kelly has always had wipeout stuff and flashed the ability to be an impact high-leverage arm at times. Yet he’s often paired that high-octane arsenal with control that comes and goes. It’s unlikely Kelly sustains anything close to his current 2.9% walk rate over a full season. This is probably headed towards a buyout.

Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera: $30MM club option ($8MM buyout)

This technically qualifies as an option decision on Cabrera. There’s no suspense about the result, of course. The future Hall of Famer will be bought out as the Tigers finally wrap up a $248MM extension that proved very ill-advised. Cabrera has already declared 2023 to be his likely final season. He’ll leave the sport as one of the greatest hitters ever, but it remains to be seen whether the Tigers will carry him on the roster all year. He’s hitting .202/.283/.245 in 26 games.

Minnesota Twins

Jorge Polanco: $10.5MM club/vesting option ($1MM buyout)

Polanco would vest next year’s option with 550 plate appearances if he passed a postseason physical. He’s very unlikely to meet the playing time threshold. Polanco has only 118 trips to the dish more than a third of the way through the season. He’s had a pair of injured list stints already, missing time due both to right knee and left hamstring concerns. He’d need to average more than 4.2 plate appearances per game the rest of the way.

That’ll probably be a moot point, as the Twins seem likely to welcome him back regardless. It’s a $9.5MM decision for a middle infielder who’s one of the team’s better hitters. The switch-hitting Polanco posted a .235/.346/.405 line last season and is at a .268/.305/.482 pace in 27 games this year. Dating back to 2018, Polanco is a .272/.337/.456 hitter in nearly 2500 plate appearances. The Twins would have another club option (this time valued at $12MM) for 2025 if they keep him around, only adding to the appeal.

Max Kepler: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Kepler’s early-career extension looked like it’d be a coup when he connected on 36 home runs in 2019. The former top prospect seemed to be taking his long-awaited step forward. He hasn’t built on it, though, as he posted roughly league average numbers each season from 2020-22.

Even average production would be a welcome departure from Kepler’s showing thus far in ’23. The left-handed-hitting outfielder is off to a brutal .192/.264/.376 start in 140 plate appearances. The shift ban hasn’t resulted in any kind of improvement in his perennially low ball in play numbers. He’s sporting a career-worst .196 BABIP. His strikeouts are up to 20.7% and he’s walking at a career-worst 7.1% clip.

Kepler is an elite defensive right fielder and has shown better offensive form in prior seasons. A $9MM call isn’t out of the question, but he’ll obviously need to markedly improve upon his current pace. Minnesota has a number of controllable corner outfielders who’ve reached the MLB level (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner among them). Perhaps it’s time for a change of scenery for Kepler, who seems to have stalled out in the Twin Cities.

The Upcoming Shortstop Class Looks Increasingly Bleak

By Anthony Franco | May 9, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The top free agent storyline of each of the past two offseasons was the respective star-studded shortstop classes. In 2021-22, it was Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez. Last winter, Correa was back on the market again, joined by Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

Next winter’s group was never going to rival that previous collection. The class in general is very light on star position player talent beyond Shohei Ohtani. It’s particularly barren up the middle of the diamond. It’s hard to imagine a more complete 180° turn than how things appear to be trending with the shortstop class, though. Virtually everyone involved is off to a very slow start.

The early-season performances from the impending free agents at the position:

Amed Rosario (28)*

While Rosario is not the superstar some evaluators had anticipated during his time in the Mets’ farm system, he’d been a solid regular for two seasons since landing in Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster. Rosario’s solid batting averages helped offset his very low walk tallies. He hit 25+ doubles with double-digit homers in both 2021-22, playing on a near everyday basis. His cumulative .282/.316/.406 batting line was almost exactly league average. Public metrics were mixed on Rosario’s defense but the Guardians have been content to keep him at shortstop despite plenty of upper minors infield talent. Only 27 and without a ton of market competition, he entered the year in position for a strong three or four-year contract.

That could still be the case but Rosario is doing himself no favors with his early performance. He’s sitting on a .217/.262/.300 showing through his first 130 plate appearances. He has just one homer and is striking out at a 29.2% clip that’d easily be the worst full-season mark of his career if it holds. After making contact on 81.3% of his swings last season, he’s putting the bat on the ball only 71.5% of the time this year. He’s also committed six errors in 255 1/3 innings after being charged with just 12 in more than 1200 frames last year. Rosario is still the top impending free agent shortstop by default but he’s struggling in all areas right now.

Javier Báez (31), can opt out of final four years and $98MM on his contract

Báez is hitting .256/.318/.376 through his first 130 plate appearances. That’s an improvement over the lackluster .238/.278/.393 line he managed during his first season in Detroit. His 16.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, pushing his overall offense near league average in spite of just three home runs in 32 games. Báez’s 2023 campaign has been fine but hardly overwhelming. It’s nowhere near what it’d take for him to beat the $98MM remaining on his existing contract. He’d need a torrid summer to put himself in position to test free agency.

Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández has been pushed into primary shortstop duty by the Red Sox’ various injuries. The early reviews from public defensive metrics aren’t favorable, with Statcast putting him at seven outs below average in 199 innings. Hernández is off to an equally slow start at the plate. He’s hitting .236/.295/.362 over 139 plate appearances on the heels of a .222/.291/.338 showing last year. He’s been a valuable super-utility option and everyday center fielder at times in his career, including a 20-homer campaign in 2021. The past year-plus hasn’t been especially impressive, though, and Hernández has yet to demonstrate he’s capable of handling shortstop regularly from a defensive standpoint.

Brandon Crawford (37)

The career-long Giant had a tough April on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .169/.244/.352 with a personal-high 28.2% strikeout rate in 21 games. His defensive marks through 173 2/3 innings are unanimously below-average. A right calf strain sent him to the injured list last week. Even if Crawford is willing to explore all opportunities next winter after 13 seasons in San Francisco, he’ll need much better production once he returns from the IL to find any interest as a starting shortstop.

Elvis Andrus (35)

Much of what applies to Crawford is also true for Andrus. He’s a 15-year MLB veteran with a couple All-Star appearances to his name but his offense has fallen off in recent seasons. Andrus was a well below-average hitter from 2018-21. He rebounded with a solid .249/.303/.404 showing last season but still didn’t generate much free agent attention. After settling for a $3MM deal with the White Sox, he’s hitting only .208/.291/.264 in 142 plate appearances this year. Andrus hit 17 homers last season but has just one through the first six weeks.

Nick Ahmed (34)

Another glove-first veteran, Ahmed is also off to a rough start at the plate. He carries a .227/.239/.318 line over 67 plate appearances. He’s hit only one home run and walked just once. Ahmed has always been a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist, but his career .235/.289/.380 slash is much more tenable than the production he’s managed thus far in 2023. He lost almost all of last season to shoulder surgery.

Gio Urshela (32)

Urshela is hitting plenty of singles to start his time in Orange County. His .303 batting average is impressive but is paired with just a .325 on-base percentage and .345 slugging mark. He’s walking at a career-low 3.3% clip and has only three extra-base hits (two doubles and a homer) in 123 plate appearances.

More concerning for teams looking to the shortstop market is Urshela’s lack of experience at the position. He’s been a third baseman for the majority of his career. Since landing with the Angels, he’s assumed a multi-positional infield role that has given him eight-plus starts at shortstop and both corner infield spots. Even if he starts hitting for more power, he’s better deployed as a versatile infielder who can moonlight at shortstop than an everyday solution there.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (28)

Kiner-Falefa lost his starting shortstop role with the Yankees towards the end of last season. He’s been kicked into a multi-positional capacity this year and hasn’t logged a single inning at the position in 2023. While Kiner-Falefa presumably could still handle shortstop if asked, he’s contributed nothing offensively in the early going. Through 72 plate appearances, he owns a .191/.225/.206 line.

Adalberto Mondesí (28)

Mondesí is young and has flashed tantalizing tools throughout his major league career. He’s also reached base at a meager .280 clip over 358 MLB games and battled various injuries. An April 2022 ACL tear cut that season short after just 15 games. The Red Sox nevertheless acquired him from the Royals over the offseason, but he’s yet to play a game with Boston. Mondesí opened the season on the 60-day injured list and won’t make his Sox debut until at least the end of this month. There’s a chance for him to play his way into some free agent interest. He’ll need an extended stretch of health and performance.

Players With Club Options

Both Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong can hit free agency if the White Sox and Cardinals decline respective 2024 club options. That seems likely in DeJong’s case but is reflective of the .196/.280/.351 line he managed between 2020-22. If he plays well enough to warrant significant free agent interest — he has been excellent in 11 games this season, to his credit — the Cardinals would exercise their $12.5MM option and keep him off the market anyhow.

The White Sox hold a $14MM option on Anderson’s services. That looks as if it’ll be a no-brainer for Chicago to keep him around (or exercise and make him available in trade). The only way Anderson gets to free agency is if his 2023 season is decimated by injury or an uncharacteristic performance drop-off, in which case he’d be a question mark as well.

Outlook

This was never going to be a great group. It’s comprised largely of glove-first veterans in their mid-30s. Players like Andrus, Ahmed, Crawford and José Iglesias — who’ll also hit free agency and has bounced around on minor league deals thus far in 2023 — don’t tend to be priority targets. That opened the door for the likes of Rosario, Báez and a potentially healthy Mondesí — younger players who have shown some offensive upside — to separate themselves from the pack in a way they wouldn’t have the last couple winters. No one has seized the mantle to this point. While there are still more than four months for someone to emerge, the early returns on the shortstop class aren’t promising.

*age for the 2024 season

White Sox Designate Jake Diekman, Franklin German; Select Alex Colomé, Sammy Peralta

By Darragh McDonald | May 6, 2023 at 12:10pm CDT

May 6: The White Sox have requested unconditional release waivers on Diekman following his DFA earlier in the week, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times relays.

May 2: The White Sox announced a massive series of roster moves today, including reinstating infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto from the injured list. Additionally, they selected the contracts of right-hander Alex Colomé, left-hander Sammy Peralta and outfielder Billy Hamilton, the latter move having already been reported earlier today. To make room for all of those players, righty Joe Kelly was placed on the paternity list, infielder/outfielder Romy González was placed on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation, outfielder Óscar Colás and infielder Lenyn Sosa were optioned to Triple-A while lefty Jake Diekman and righty Franklin German were designated for assignment. One spot on the 40-man roster was already open after A.J. Alexy was outrighted last week.

The White Sox have been off to a terrible start this year, going 8-21 as multiple key players have dealt with injuries. It was reported on the weekend that Anderson and Alberto would be coming back today, so those moves aren’t surprising. But it seems the club has decided to use their returns to springboard an incredible roster shakeup, with 11 players involved in today’s shuffling as they try to alter their trajectory.

Diekman, 36, has a lengthy track record of effectiveness in the big leagues but has fallen on hard times in recent years. At the end of 2021, he had a 3.73 ERA through 529 career appearances. His 12.7% walk rate was definitely on the high side but he also struck out 29% of batters faced and got grounders on 47.9% of balls in play. His ERA was a bit high at 4.23 with the Red Sox at the deadline last year when they flipped him to the Pale Hose for Reese McGuire, a player to be named later and cash. Unfortunately, he posted a 6.52 ERA with the Sox the rest of the way and has a 7.94 mark so far this year. He’s walked an incredible 22.4% of batters faced this season, exacerbating a longstanding issue and getting himself bumped off the roster.

The Sox will now have a week to trade Diekman or pass him through waivers but the interest around the league is unlikely to be widespread. Left-handed relief is always in demand but Diekman is making $3.5MM this year and has a $1MM buyout on a $4MM club option for 2024. Given his recent struggles, no team will want to take on that money, meaning he will likely pass through waivers unclaimed. Once he does so, he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.

Also designated for assignment is German, 25, who made his major league debut with the Red Sox last year but changed the color of his Sox via a February trade. Though he got five appearances in the big leagues last season, he spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting a 2.58 ERA with a 30.5% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. Unfortunately, everything has gone in the wrong direction since the deal. He has an ERA of 7.15 in Triple-A so far this season, with his strikeout rate having dipped to 26.7% and his walks up to 15%.

One of those roster spots will go to Colomé, 34, who has a long résumé of work in the big leagues, including a previous stint with the White Sox. He has a 3.34 ERA over his career but has seen his results slip in the past couple of seasons. He had a tiny 0.81 ERA in the small sample of the shortened 2020 season but saw that jump to 4.15 and 5.74 in the subsequent campaigns. He signed a minor league deal with the Nationals this winter but didn’t make the club out of camp and opted out, jumping to the White Sox on another minors deal. He has a 2.25 ERA through his first 10 appearances in Triple-A this year, but with some good luck seemingly helping him out. He’s stranded 84.9% of baserunners despite an 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate.

Also joining the club’s bullpen will be Peralta, which will be a bit of an early birthday present for him, as he turns 25 next week. An 18th round selection in the 2019 draft, he has climbed the minor league ladder in the years since. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A with a combined 3.77 ERA in 62 innings, striking out 29.2% of batters faced while walking 8.5%. He has a 3.52 ERA so far this year through 15 1/3 Triple-A innings.

In addition to all that 40-man roster shuffling, the club also optioned Colás. He will still be on the 40-man but it’s notable that he’s seemingly been pushed out of the club’s plans for the time being. He had no major league experience coming into this year but was a bit older and more experienced than a typical prospect since he had already played in the Cuban National Series and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

He was given the club’s everyday right field job this year but has hit just .211/.265/.276 through 25 games for a wRC+ of 51. He was just added to the club’s roster in March and has a full slate of options, which the club will now use to get him some more seasoning in the minors. He hit an incredible .314/.371/.524 in the minors last year, going from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A, but only seven of his 117 games were at the highest level. He’ll now head back to Charlotte to work his way back to the majors. This could have ramifications for his service time, since he was previously on pace to get a full year in 2023 but now will end up shy of that once he spends 20 days in the minors, which would push back his free agency and perhaps his arbitration as well.

Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. would normally be in left and center field, respectively, but the latter has been dealing with a minor injury of late. With Colás now optioned out, right field could be shared by some mix of Eloy Jiménez, Gavin Sheets and Adam Haseley, with Hamilton perhaps entering the mix as well.

White Sox To Select Billy Hamilton

By Steve Adams | May 2, 2023 at 11:32am CDT

The White Sox are set to select the contract of veteran outfielder Billy Hamilton, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. He had an opt-out clause in his minor league deal, so he’ll be called up in order to prevent him from pursuing new opportunities in free agency. The Sox are also preparing to activate infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto from the 10-day injured list. A slate of corresponding moves will be forthcoming, though a 40-man roster move isn’t necessary for Hamilton. The Sox have an open spot after outrighting pitcher A.J. Alexy late last week.

Hamilton, 32, spent the 2021 season with the White Sox, hitting .220/.242/.378 in 135 trips to the plate. That small sample of work at the plate was spread over the life of 71 games, reflecting Hamilton’s usage as a frequent pinch-runner and late-game defensive replacement. That’s the role the former top prospect has settled into since departing Cincinnati, where he was the starting center fielder for a half decade but never managed to develop enough bat to match his elite speed and defensive aptitude. He’s begun the 2023 season with a .188/.328/.271 slash in 59 Triple-A plate appearances.

Over the past four years, Hamilton has logged close to a full season’s worth of plate appearances (547) but mustered only a tepid .206/.263/.289 batting line with a 28% strikeout rate. He’s still swiped 47 bags in that time despite the infrequency with which he reaches base. Defensive metrics have long touted his glove in center field; in 6766 career innings he’s been credited with 73 Defensive Runs Saved, a 57.2 Ultimate Zone Rating and 58 Outs Above Average.

As a team, the White Sox rank 26th in the Majors with -12 DRS and 21st with -4 OAA. Unlike last season, the outfield hasn’t been a major culprit, thanks to the presence of a healthy Luis Robert Jr., the newly signed Andrew Benintendi. Prospect Oscar Colas has been the primary option in right field and graded out less successfully, however, and his bat hasn’t produced anywhere close to the levels hoped yet (.211/.265/.276 in 84 plate appearances).

Van Schouwen adds that outfielder Adam Haseley is expected to remain with the club, so it’s possible the Sox either have an injury in the outfield or are planning to give Colas some additional development time in Triple-A after a rough start to his season. However it plays out, Hamilton will give them a top-tier defender and elite speed off the bench for as long as he’s with the team.

Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?

By Steve Adams | May 1, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.

Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.

One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.

Rental Players

The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary

Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.

The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.

Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM

Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ’pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM

Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.

Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM

Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.

Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM

Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.

Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM

The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.

Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year

Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.

Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024

Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.

The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.

Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024

Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024

Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.

Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024

Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3 inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.

Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024

Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.

Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024

The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.

Longer Term Players

Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.

Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.

Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.

Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.

Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.

—–

There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.

Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.

The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Mahle, Skubal

By Nick Deeds | April 30, 2023 at 2:39pm CDT

The White Sox are set to get some much needed reinforcements early this week, as manager Pedro Grifol tells reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) that both shortstop Tim Anderson and infielder Hanser Alberto are expected to return from the injured list on Tuesday.

That’s great news for the club, as the White Sox have begun their 2023 campaign with a worrisome 7-21 record that places them tied for last in the AL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Twins. A two time All Star who won the batting title in 2019, Anderson is one of the club’s marquee players. From 2019 to 2021 Anderson posted 11.6 fWAR in 295 games, a pace of nearly 6.4 fWAR per 162 games, thanks to solid defense at shortstop paired with a .322/.349/.495 slash line that was good for a 126 wRC+. That being said, Anderson missed three months of action in 2022 due to multiple injuries and didn’t reach those same standards when on the field, posting just a 110 wRC+ in 79 games along with a .093 ISO that was far below the .173 he managed during his peak years.

Even after a relative down season last year, however, Anderson figures to be one of the club’s best players this season, and any hope of a turnaround for the White Sox after this brutal start to the 2023 campaign likely rests in large part on his shoulders. In coming off the IL, he’ll be joined by Alberto, who figures to join Chicago’s bench mix alongside Romy Gonzalez, Lenyn Sosa, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Haseley. Despite a career wRC+ of just 77, Alberto is in his eighth year in the majors thanks to his versatility, which has allowed him to play all over the diamond except for behind the plate and in center field, and his penchant for avoiding strikeouts, as the 30-year-old veteran has punched out in just 12.2% of his 1,406 plate appearances in his career to this point.

More from around the AL Central…

Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle underwent an MRI on his arm after he was diagnosed with an elbow impingement earlier this week. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters, including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, that the team will have more details soon but that Mahle is expected to miss his next start at the very least. It’s not currently known if an injured list stint will be necessary for Mahle, who has a 3.16 ERA in five starts so far in 2023. The Twins have a variety of options for a spot start on the 40-man roster if necessary, including Simeon Woods-Richardson, Cole Sands, Louie Varland and Brent Headrick.
Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, who underwent flexor surgery last August, threw off a mound for the first time since his surgery yesterday, as noted by MLive’s Evan Woodberry. Everything went well during the bullpen, during which Skubal threw 15 fastballs. Skubal doesn’t figure to return from injury any time soon, but the positive update is nonetheless great news for the Tigers, who also lost fellow youngsters Casey Mize and Matt Manning before the season began. 2022 was something of a breakout season for Skubal, as the young lefty posted a 3.52 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work.

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