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Taylor Clarke

Royals, Taylor Clarke Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Taylor Clarke last week, according to the MLB.com transaction log. The 31-year-old returns to the organization after spending one season in the Milwaukee system. He’s represented by the Ballengee Group.

Clarke, a former Diamondbacks draftee, pitched with Kansas City in 2022 and ’23. The former was the best season of his career. Clarke turned in a 4.04 earned run average with stellar command across 49 relief innings. He struggled in his follow-up campaign, allowing nearly six earned runs per nine over 59 frames. The Royals dealt him to the Brewers last offseason for a pair of minor leaguers. Clarke suffered a meniscus injury in his right knee during Spring Training.

That required surgery, leading Clarke to begin the season on the minor league injured list. He struggled in Triple-A upon his return and lost his spot on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster in July. Clarke spent the entire season with their top affiliate in Nashville before qualifying for minor league free agency.

The Brewers used Clarke mostly out of the rotation in the minors. He started 15 of 22 outings, tallying 68 frames of 4.90 ERA ball. He’d pitched exclusively as a reliever or opener over his two seasons in Kansas City (and in his final year in Arizona). The Royals have more need for bullpen depth than they do for a starter, so they’re presumably targeting Clarke as a candidate for middle innings work.

Clarke has strong command and posted roughly average strikeout rates over his two seasons in K.C. He sat in the 95-96 MPH range with his heater in short stints. That dropped to around 93-94 in Triple-A this year, which is to be expected since he was working deeper into games. Clarke has struggled with the home run ball throughout his five MLB seasons, the biggest reason his career ERA sits narrowly above 5.00.

10 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Outfielders

Pitchers

Brewers Outright Taylor Clarke

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July 10: Clarke went unclaimed on outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Nashville, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. As previously noted, he’ll likely accept. Clarke picked up 48 days of service earlier this season while on the major league injured list, bringing him to 4.168 years of service — just four days shy of the five years he’d need to reject the outright but retain his salary. (Clarke did not receive big league service time during his DFA window, as he was in Triple-A at the time he was designated.)

July 3: The Brewers have designated right-hander Taylor Clarke for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for newly acquired right-hander Aaron Civale. The right-hander did not pitch in the majors for Milwaukee after coming over from Kansas City in an offseason trade sending minor league right-hander Ryan Brady and minor league infielder Cam Devanney back to the Royals.

The 31-year-old Clarke pitched in the big leagues for the 2019-21 D-backs and 2022-23 Royals. He had a nice showing with Kansas City in 2022, tossing 49 innings of 4.04 ERA ball with a solid 23.6% strikeout rate and pristine 3.9% walk rate. He couldn’t sustain that production into the 2023 campaign, however, evidenced by a 5.95 ERA in 59 frames. Clarke punched out an even better 24.4% of his opponents but also walked 9% of the batters he faced and yielded considerably more hard contact en route to a bloated 1.83 HR/9 mark.

Milwaukee, likely intrigued by Clarke’s 95 mph average heater, ability to miss bats and remaining minor league option, sent a pair of minor leaguers to Kansas City after the Royals had designated Clarke for assignment themselves (to make room for the signing of Seth Lugo). He opened the season on the minor league injured list and has been stretched out as a starter since returning, though the results haven’t been encouraging. Clarke has pitched in 11 games, nine of them starts, and been tagged for a dreary 5.30 earned run average. He’s back to showing strong command (5.2% walk rate) but has seen his strikeout rate dip to 19.5% while last season’s home run troubles persist (1.77 HR/9)

The Brewers will either trade Clarke or place him on outright waivers within the next five days. (Waivers themselves are an additional 48 hour process.) He has enough service time to reject an outright assignment to the minors in the event that he goes unclaimed, but doing so would require forfeiture of the remainder of this season’s $1.25MM salary. Given that arbitration salary and his struggles in the upper minors, it seems likely that Clarke will clear and remain with the Brewers in Triple-A Nashville. If he’s not added back to the 40-man roster before season’s end, he’d be eligible for minor league free agency, as is the case with all players who possess three-plus years of service but have been removed from a team’s 40-man roster.

Brewers Notes: Mitchell, Williams, Clarke, Wilken

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Brewers outfielder Garrett Mitchell has been on the injured list all season thus far after suffering a hand fracture during the spring. Reporting in early April suggested he was facing a timeline of about four to six weeks but it may end up being more than that. General manager Matt Arnold informed reporters this week, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that the club is expecting a return around June 1.

It’s the second straight year where Mitchell has been prevented from getting into regular action. He debuted late in 2022 and hit .311/.373/.459 in his first 28 major league games, setting himself up for a prominent role on the 2023 club. But he suffered a left shoulder subluxation in April last year and required surgery, ultimately only playing in 19 games during that campaign.

Mitchell has provided above-average outfield defense and has stolen nine bases in ten tries while hitting .278/.343/.452 in his limited action. That has come with a concerning 38.3% strikeout rate that he and the Brewers would surely love to drop, which likely makes it even more frustrating that he keeps missing out on key development time.

So far this year, the Brewers have been using a regular outfield rotation of Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick. During the spring, the club was experimenting with the idea of moving Frelick to the infield but Mitchell’s injury allowed him to go back to his regular outfield job.

Arnold also relayed that reliever Devin Williams is looking at a return around the All-Star break. That roughly aligns with the three-month estimate given when it was reported in March that the closer had been diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back. Taylor Clarke, meanwhile, is looking at a late May return from the meniscus surgery he underwent on his right knee a few weeks ago.

Today, Arnold provided an unfortunate update about prospect Brock Wilken, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Wilken was playing for Double-A Biloxi last night when he was hit in the face by a pitch, suffering multiple fractures but no concussion. Once the swelling subsides, Wilken will likely undergo surgery.

Wilken, who turns 22 in June, was the club’s first-round pick last year. Selected 18th overall, the Brewers sent the third baseman through the Complex League, High-A and Double-A last year after drafting him. Baseball America ranked him as the club’s #10 prospect coming into this year while FanGraphs had him at #5.

This news is obviously a bit scary but Arnold says the long-term prognosis is good. Given his potential importance to the club’s future, the Brewers will likely be cautious in getting Wilken back onto the field.

Brewers Notes: Outfield, Gasser, Clarke

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The outfield mix in Milwaukee took a major hit earlier this week when the Brewers announced that center fielder Garrett Mitchell will open the season on the shelf due to a hand fracture. Mitchell, who the club selected 20th overall in the 2020 draft, was expected to be the club’s regular starter in center to open the season but now is ticketed for what could be an extended absence, his second in as many years after shoulder surgery wiped out the majority of his 2023 campaign.

Franchise face Christian Yelich and top prospect Jackson Chourio were slated to handle the outfield corners when it appeared that Michell would be the club’s starting center fielder, and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays that, per manager Pat Murphy, that’s still the plan. Chourio, 20, has made the overwhelming majority of his outfield appearances in center during his time in the minors and has just eight games of minor league experience in right field, but Murphy confirmed that the club will not change course and move Chourio to center while Mitchell is on the shelf. Instead, Murphy suggests (as relayed by Rosiak) that the Brewers will rely on a platoon featuring Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins in center while Mitchell is unavailable, with Frelick getting the lion’s share of playing time against right-handers while Perkins starts against southpaws.

Both Frelick, 24 in April, and Perkins, 27, made their big league debuts with Milwaukee last season and held their own in limited action with the club. The switch-hitting Perkins appeared in 67 games with the club while splitting time between all three outfield spots and slashed a decent .217/.325/.350 (88 wRC+) in 168 trips to the plate. Meanwhile, Frelick drew 223 plate appearances across 57 games with the Brewers and slashed .246/.341/.351 (92 wRC+) during that time while also going a solid 7-for-7 on the basepaths. The youngster took reps at third base this winter to create a possible path to additional playing time outside of the club’s crowded outfield, though it appears those plans are on hold in the wake of Mitchell’s injury.

The plan to platoon the two youngsters makes plenty of sense for Frelick, who posted a paltry 59 wRC+ against southpaws last year. With that being said, Perkins is somewhat of an odd choice for a platoon partner as he also struggled against southpaws last year with a 65 wRC+ from the right-handed side of the batters’ box in the majors. Should Perkins struggle in the role to open the season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club pivot to Joey Wiemer as Frelick’s platoon partner in center, as the 25-year-old played strong defense in the outfield last year and batted an impressive .267/.298/.517 in 121 trips to the plate against lefties last year. For now, however, Wiemer is ticketed to begin the season at Triple-A as the club’s primary depth option in the outfield.

Along with his comments on the outfield, Murphy also discussed injuries sustained by a pair of organization’s pitchers. Rosiak relays that right-hander Taylor Clarke is set to undergo meniscus surgery on his right knee, while lefty Robert Gasser will open the season on the injured list due to a bone spur in his left elbow. Clarke, 31 in May, was already expected to open the 2024 campaign on the shelf due to the injury but now faces a significantly longer absence, though no timetable for his return was discussed by Murphy. The right-hander came over to the Brewers in a trade with the Royals back in December on the heels of a difficult 2023 season in Kansas City that saw him post a 5.95 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 58 appearances.

As for Gasser, the left-hander has yet to make his major league debut but was a key component in the trade that sent Josh Hader to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline. His first full season in Milwaukee went quite well as he pitched to a 3.79 ERA in 135 1/3 innings as a member of the club’s Triple-A rotation, striking out an impressive 28% of batters faced along the way. An intriguing talent that Baseball America placed 98th on their preseason top 100 prospects list this year, Gasser figures to contribute to the club’s rotation at some point this season, but his big league debut will have to wait until he’s healthy. Fortunately, Rosiak notes that the Brewers are currently expecting Gasser’s absence to be a matter of weeks, suggesting that he could still have plenty of time to impact the big league club later in the year if he manages to maintain his performance from last season.

Brewers Notes: Clarke, Woodruff, Arroyo

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Right-hander Taylor Clarke suffered a right meniscus injury and is getting a second opinion to see if surgery can be avoided, Brewers manager Pat Murphy told MLB.com and other media.  Clarke will certainly start the season on the 15-day injured list, and the hope is that he can avoid a significantly longer amount of downtime.

Milwaukee acquired Clarke in a December trade with the Royals, hoping that Clarke could bounce back from a rough 2023 campaign.  The righty posted a 5.95 ERA in 59 innings for Kansas City, as big spikes in Clarke’s barrel and home run rates resulted in 12 homers out of the park over those 59 frames.  His 24.4% strikeout rate was slightly above average, but his walk rate increased sharply to nine percent, after Clarke had posted a very impressive 3.9 BB% in 2022.

Surely the Brewers are hoping Clarke pitches closer to that 2022 form (when he had a 4.04 ERA in 49 innings for K.C.), but for now the priority is just getting him healthy and onto the mound.  Meniscus-related injuries carry a wide range of potential timelines based on the extent of the damage, and whether or not Clarke needs surgery.  If he does have to go under the knife, an absence of 4-6 weeks is probably the best-case scenario for a meniscus surgery.

Turning to another injured Brewers hurler, Brandon Woodruff’s recovery from shoulder surgery will prevent from pitching during the 2024 season, the right-hander told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  The right-hander was already expected to miss most of the year rehabbing, which was reflected in both the Brewers’ decision to non-tender Woodruff and in the backloaded nature of the two-year, $17.5MM deal he signed to rejoin the Crew last month.  Woodruff will earn $2.5MM in 2024 and a $5MM salary in 2025, plus a $10MM buyout of a $20MM mutual option for the 2026 season.

The rehab process seems to be going well in these early stages, and Woodruff has started to lightly throw from 30-foot distances.  The two-time All-Star is confident that he’ll be able to return to his old form when he returns to the mound in 2025, and that his knowledge of pitching will allow him to overcome any potential loss of velocity.

“Honestly, I’m going be the strongest I’ll ever be at any point in my career because I’m going have a year and just basically get my body ready for pitching….I’m just going to learn so much more about my body,” Woodruff said.  “I’m learning a new shoulder.  But as far as everything goes, I expect to be the same guy.  And you know what?  God forbid if anything else happened, like, I ain’t going to forget to pitch. So I can go out there and still figure it out.”

Despite the injury, several teams reportedly had interest in trading for Woodruff before Milwaukee non-tendered him, and also inquired about signing him after the righty hit the open market.  Woodruff ultimately chose to return to the Brewers due to the trust and comfort level built from his career-long stay in the organization.

“Why don’t I keep betting on myself?  Money is not the issue.  I want to win.  I’m comfortable here,” Woodruff said.  “I know the medical staff and they know my shoulder inside and out.  I think I’m just in a good spot in terms of coming back here.  There was a lot of stuff that I weighed out, but I’m able to kind of do – I wouldn’t say do what I want – but I kind of dictate and help run this rehab the way I want.  I’m not learning new people and that was a big part of it.”

In other Brewers news, Christian Arroyo was reassigned to the team’s minor league camp earlier this week, thus giving Arroyo an opt-out decision since he didn’t make the Opening Day roster.  Murphy told Hogg and other reporters that he doesn’t think Arroyo will opt out, plus the infielder also has a minor wrist injury.

This issue could hamper Arroyo’s chances of quickly catching on with another team in free agency, on top of his underwhelming .182/.217/.227 slash line in 23 plate appearances this spring.  Arroyo could take some time at Triple-A to get healed up and then perhaps weigh his options, or simply see if an opportunity might still emerge in Milwaukee.  The Brewers’ projected candidates for second base, third base, and utility infield roles (Brice Turang, Joey Ortiz, Sal Frelick, Andruw Monasterio) are all rather inexperienced, and in Frelick’s case, learning an infield position for the first time.  Arroyo could therefore represent some veteran depth should any of the youngsters struggle, or need more seasoning in the minors.

Royals Trade Taylor Clarke To Brewers

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The Brewers and Royals have agreed to a trade sending right-handed reliever Taylor Clarke from Kansas City to Milwaukee in exchange for minor league righty Ryan Brady and minor league infielder Cam Devanney, the teams announced Thursday. The trade of Clarke opens a spot on the Royals’ 40-man roster for newly signed Seth Lugo, whose three-year $45MM contract (the third year of which is a player option) is now official. Neither Brady nor Devanney is on the 40-man roster.

Clarke, 30, has spent the past two seasons in Kansas City after opening his career with a three-year stint in Arizona. He enjoyed a solid 2022 campaign with the Royals, tallying 49 innings of 4.04 ERA ball out of the bullpen with a roughly average 23.6% strikeout rate and a brilliant 3.9% walk rate.

That success didn’t carry over to the 2023 season, however. Clarke pitched 59 innings — his highest total since working as a starter with the D-backs as a rookie in 2019 — but was clobbered for a 5.95 ERA. His 24.4% strikeout rate was a slight improvement over the prior season, but walk rate more than doubled to 9%. Clarke also found himself far more susceptible to unfavorable contact; his opponents’ “barreled” ball rate more than doubled from 6.2% to 12.6%, and his HR/9 mark accordingly exploded, soaring from a manageable 1.10 to 1.83.

Rough season or not, Clarke averages 95 mph on his heater, can miss bats at an average or better rate and has a minor league option remaining. That makes him a decent depth pickup for a Brewers club that tends to rotate quite a few arms through the final couple spots in the bullpen. Clarke and the Royals agreed to a pre-tender deal in November, one that commits $1.25MM to the righty. That avoided a hearing in his second season of arbitration eligibility, and he’ll remain under team control through the 2025 campaign.

Brady, 25 in March, joined the Brewers as an undrafted free agent in the summer of 2022. The former BYU righty has delivered excellent results since turning pro, albeit primarily against younger competition. Brady debuted with Milwaukee’s affiliate in the Arizona Complex League in 2022 and split the 2023 season between High-A (49 innings) and Double-A (28 innings). He’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA at each stop, working to a composite 2.67 earned run average with a 24.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 50% ground-ball rate in 81 professional innings. Brady wasn’t ranked among the Brewers’ top prospects on any major publication, but he’ll bring a solid track record to the upper levels of Kansas City’s system.

Devanney, 27 in April, was Milwaukee’s 15th-round pick back in 2019. He’s played primarily shortstop in pro ball (1728 innings) but also has considerable experience at third base (730 innings) and second base (515 innings) in addition to brief looks at first base and in left field.

Devanney spent the 2023 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club in Nashville, where he batted .271/.362/.461 in 390 plate appearances. That was about seven percent better than average, by measure of wRC+, in a hitter-friendly setting. Devanney walked at a healthy 11.8% clip against a lower-than-average 18.2% strikeout rate. He’s improved his bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline in recent seasons while also showing more power. Devanney entered the 2022 season with 12 career home runs, but he popped 23 long balls in 2022 and connected on another 11 this past season. He’s a right-handed hitter who torched lefties at a .318/.400/.534 clip this year and a .307/.384/.526 clip the year prior. Devanney isn’t a threat on the basepaths and has more pedestrian numbers versus righties, but he could be a lefty-mashing utility infielder if things go well.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Brewers were acquiring Clarke. Jon Heyman of the New York Post added that two minor leaguers were going to the Royals in the deal.

Royals Avoid Arbitration With Taylor Clarke

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November 13: Clarke will make $1.25MM in 2024, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com, a slight bump over the $1.15MM he made in 2023.

November 11: The Royals and right-hander Taylor Clarke have agreed to a contract for the 2024 season, the team announced, and thus the two sides will be able to avoid an arbitration hearing.  Terms of the deal weren’t revealed, but MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Clarke would earn $2.2MM in the second of three trips through the arb process.

The Diamondbacks non-tendered Clarke during the 2021-22 offseason, and he caught on with the Royals on a guaranteed deal for the 2022 campaign worth $975K.  After delivering a solid 4.04 ERA over 49 relief innings for Kansas City in 2022, Clarke took a step backwards this past season, posting a 5.95 ERA over 59 frames.  Clarke saw both his walk and home run rates increase substantially from 2022 to 2023, though his BABIP also shot upwards from .314 in 2022 to .364 last season.

With this dropoff in mind, Clarke was seen as a possible non-tender candidate again this winter, but K.C. has opted to keep him in the fold.  Despite Clarke’s struggles, he isn’t terribly expensive, and the Royals could be betting on improved batted-ball luck, if nothing else.  Clarke also had one of baseball’s best chase rates, even if his 24.4% strikeout rate was only slightly above the league average.

November 17 is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, so the Royals now have six remaining arb-eligible players to consider over the next six days.  The list was initially eight players, but Clarke has now signed, and Taylor Hearn was outrighted off the 40-man roster in October, and Hearn then elected free agency.

Royals Fielding Offers On Several Veterans

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The Royals have been talking to other clubs about potential trades involving veteran pitchers Scott Barlow, Taylor Clarke and Ryan Yarbrough, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Outfielder Edward Olivares has also been discussed in potential deals.

Of the bunch, Barlow is the most obvious and straightforward trade candidate. The 30-year-old righty thrived as the primary closer in Kansas City from 2021-22, pitching 148 2/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball with 40 saves, a hefty 28.2% strikeout rate and a solid 8.4% walk rate. The 2023 season has been far more troublesome. Barlow’s average fastball sat at 95.3 mph in ’21 but has dipped to 92.9 mph this season. His walk rate has also spiked, and the right-hander’s 5.35 ERA is a career-worst mark.

That said, Barlow still figures to hold appeal to other clubs. Dip in velocity notwithstanding, he still has well above-average strikeout (26.2%), swinging-strike (12.6%) and opponents chase (37.6%) rates. His $5.3MM salary is generally affordable, and Barlow is controllable through 2024 via arbitration. This year’s struggles are at least in part due to a .340 average on balls in play and 61.6% strand rate, both worse-than-average marks which should eventually trend toward his career marks of .306 and 76.1%. Barlow had a solid 3.97 ERA as recently as July 16, but he’s been tagged for eight runs through 4 2/3 innings over his past five outings.

Clarke, also 30, has a shorter track record and more pronounced struggles in 2023. The right-hander has been tagged for a 6.00 ERA in 45 innings this year, thanks to a particularly dreadful slump dating back to mid-June. Clarke had a 2.70 ERA through his first 30 innings but has been tattooed for 22 runs in his past 15 innings. A season-long .374 BABIP isn’t helping his cause, but that alone doesn’t explain the extent of the right-hander’s struggles. From 2020-22, he pitched to a respectable, if unspectacular 4.44 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates.

The 31-year-old Yarbrough inked a one-year deal with Kansas City after spending his entire big league career with the Rays organization. He’s earning $3MM this season and, although he missed time after a frightening incident where he was struck by a comebacker, the lefty has been decent when on the field. In 51 innings — seven starts, seven relief outings — he’s posted a 4.24 ERA. Yarbrough has one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB (13.7%) but also one of the lowest walk rates (4.2%) among pitchers with at least 50 innings.

While Yarbrough started the season in Kansas City’s bullpen, he moved into the rotation not long before his injury and has continued starting since returning in early July. He’s made four starts since coming off the IL, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings. He’s a pure rental and could help round out the back of someone’s rotation in the season’s final two months.

Olivares, 27, came to the Royals from the Padres organization in the 2020 trade that sent Trevor Rosenthal to San Diego. He looked solid at the plate in 2022 when he hit .286/.333/.410 with four homers, eight doubles and a pair of steals in 174 trips to the plate. His 2023 output has taken a step back. He’s logged a career-high 274 plate appearances but turned in a tepid .246/.299/.409 batting line.

The right-handed-hitting Olivares has even platoon splits this year but has generally been better against righties than lefties, when looking at his career as a whole. He’s played all three outfield spots in his career but has primarily worked in the corners; he doesn’t have above-average grades at any of the three positions, though. Olivares would be controllable for three more years beyond the current season, but he hasn’t developed as the Royals had hoped and is more of a change-of-scenery candidate than someone who’d fetch them meaningful prospect depth.

Who Else Could The Royals Trade?

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It’s been a quiet offseason for the Royals on the whole, but they’ve taken up a prominent position on the trade market in the past few days, shipping center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins in exchange for relief prospects Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, and flipping infielder Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Josh Taylor the following day.

Those might not be the only trades in store for general manager J.J. Picollo in his first offseason atop the team’s baseball operations hierarchy. The Royals have reportedly discussed infielder Nicky Lopez with the White Sox in what would be a second intra-division swap. More broadly, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Kansas City still had “a couple more deals” that they’re in the process of “lining up.” With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at some of the names the Royals could potentially ship out in the days and weeks leading up to spring training.

First and foremost, it should be pointed out that both Taylor and Mondesi were a year away from reaching the open market. They represented short-term assets for a Royals team that knows itself to be, at best, a long shot to contend in 2023. Lopez is more of of a mid-range player in terms of remaining club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. Presumably, the Royals won’t want to surrender much more team control than that. Players like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are all controllable through at least the 2028 season; it’s unlikely the Royals would give much consideration to moving anyone from that group.

Onto some more plausible names, beginning with the focus of yesterday’s White Sox rumors…

Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS | Age: 27 (28 in March) | Contract: Signed for $3.7MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Lopez has been an all-glove player outside a 2021 season that currently looks anomalous in nature. He posted a .300/.365/.378 batting line in 565 plate appearances that season but did so with a .347 batting average on balls in play that’s 53 points higher than his career mark of .294. Lopez is a career .252/.309/.321 hitter in more than 1600 plate appearances. To say he doesn’t hit the ball hard would be an understatement; Lopez ranked 246th of 252 qualified hitters with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 250th with a 22.9% hard-hit rate. Statcast ranked him in the third percentile of MLB hitters in terms of “expected” slugging percentage.

That’s not a ringing endorsement of Lopez by any stretch, but he has plenty of positive attributes: namely his bat-to-ball skills and prodigious defensive prowess. Lopez fanned in just 13.1% of his plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, exhibiting strong contact skills. He doesn’t take especially lengthy at-bats (average 3.66 pitcher per plate appearance, compared to the league-average 3.9), but Lopez puts the ball in play and runs fairly well, ranking in the 58th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.

Defensively, there are few better players in the game — at least in the estimation of Statcast. He’s been an above-average but not elite defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average credits Lopez with excellent marks at second base (12) and particularly at shortstop (31) in his career. The sure-handed Lopez has made just 20 errors as a big leaguer and shown aptitude at both middle infield slots as well as in briefer sessions at the hot corner.

With three more years of club control remaining, there’s no urgency to trade Lopez. However, the Royals have Witt at shortstop and want to give 24-year-old Michael Massey a chance to claim the second base job.

Scott Barlow, RHP | Age: 30 | Contract: Signed for $5.3MM, arb-eligible through 2024

Likely the most popular potential trade chip on the Royals, Barlow has stepped up as the team’s closer and solidified himself as a quality late-game option in Kansas City. He’s pitched matching totals of 74 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, logging a combined 2.30 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 43.3% grounder rate, 0.79 HR/9 mark and 40 saves.

Over the past two seasons, Barlow is tied for 22nd among 138 qualified relievers with a 15% swinging-strike rate. His 36.9% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ties him for 15th in that same set of hurlers. Barlow has also excelled at hitting spots and freezing batters (18.1% called-strike rate), and his combined 33.1% called strike-plus-whiff rate is eighth among MLB relievers since 2021. He limits hard contact extremely well (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2022), has plus spin on his heater and generates plus extension with his delivery, per Statcast.

It’s not all roses with Barlow, however. He saw his average fastball dip from 95.3 mph in 2021 to 93.7 mph in 2022. In conjunction, both his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate saw notable drops. This past season’s 1.09 HR/9 mark was the worst he’s posted in a full season, and (likely because of the drop in strikeouts) Barlow needed a charitable .240 average on balls in play to get to his sparkling 2.18 ERA; that’s 75 points lower than his 2021 mark and 84 points lower than the career mark he carried into 2022. It’s not likely to be repeated, so if the velocity and strikeouts remain at their 2022 levels, Barlow’s ERA is going to be in for quite a bit of regression.

Even with some modest red flags in 2022, Barlow remains a quality reliever who can be controlled at a relatively affordable rate for the next two seasons. If he were a free agent this winter, he’d surely have commanded a good bit more than the $12-14MM or so he’ll command in his final two arbitration seasons. There’s surplus value here, and if the Royals are (understandably) pessimistic about their chances in 2023, Barlow’s trade value will be at its apex either now or this summer.

Taylor Clarke, RHP | Age: 29 (30 in May) | Contract: Signed for $1.15MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Cut loose by the D-backs after the 2021 season, Clarke signed a surprising Major League deal with Kansas City and proved a shrewd pickup, tossing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA. Clarke logged 10 holds and a trio of saves but worked more in low- and medium-leverage spots than in high-leverage scenarios.

It might be a middle relief profile, but if you squint there’s perhaps a bit more here. Clarke’s 3.9% walk rate was elite, and he posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (23.6%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.5%) — all while averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball. Fielding independent metrics felt he was far better than his ERA (3.30 FIP, 3.15 xERA, 3.16 SIERA). He doesn’t immediately jump out as a trade candidate, but three affordable years of control on a hard-throwing reliever who’s trending in the right direction might pique another team’s interest.

Amir Garrett, LHP | Age: 30 (31 in May) | Contract: Signed for $2.65MM, free agent after 2023 season

The Royals picked up Garrett in the March trade that sent lefty Mike Minor to Cincinnati. It didn’t work out particularly well for either side. Garrett pitched 45 1/3 innings and limped to a 4.96 ERA as his longstanding command woes spiked to new heights. Garrett walked 16.3% of his opponents last year, plunked another five batters and threw seven wild pitches. His 94.2 mph average fastball was his lowest mark since moving to the bullpen full-time.

Garrett still whiffed a quarter of his opponents, however, and he somewhat incredibly didn’t give up a home run all season. Unsustainable as that feat may be, its reflective of the fact that Garrett didn’t really get hit hard in Kansas City (88.3 mph exit velo, 30% hard-hit rate). Hard-throwing lefties who can miss bats are always going to find work, and Garrett’s salary is quite affordable.

At his best, Garrett logged a 3.03 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 74 1/3 innings from 2019-20. Another club might look at him as a bargain power arm who could be fixed.

Brad Keller, RHP | Age: 27 | Contract: Signed for $5.775MM, free agent after 2023 season

It’s been a rough couple seasons for Keller, who from 2018-20 looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft picks in recent memory. Keller logged a 3.50 ERA through his first three seasons, going from a long reliever to an entrenched member of the Kansas City rotation. His 2021-22 seasons, however, have gone the opposite direction. Since Opening Day 2021, Keller has a 5.24 ERA in 273 1/3 innings. His walk rate has crept upward, and his once solid abilities to avoid hard contact have seemingly evaporated; Keller’s 1.15 HR/9 mark over the past two seasons is nearly double the 0.60 rate he turned in from 2018-20. His opponents’ barrel and hard-hit rates have exploded from 4.5% and 35.7%, respectively, to 8.7% and 42.8%.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Keller’s only trip to the Major League injured list (Covid-related list excluded) was in 2021 when he missed the final month of the season due to a lat strain. That didn’t seem to linger into the 2022 campaign, as Keller avoided the IL entirely while making 22 starts and another 13 relief appearances. At the very least, he should be viewed as a durable, affordable, innings-eating rental. And, if a team can restore his once-plus slider to its previous form, there’s bargain potential for the righty, who won’t turn 28 until late July.

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF | Age: 31 | Contract: Guaranteed $17.5MM through 2024, plus $10MM club option for 2025

Dozier’s outstanding 2019 season feels like a distant memory. He slashed .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs that season, clocking in at 23% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. (If that seems low, recall that 2019 is widely regarded as a season in which MLB juiced the baseballs, resulting in unprecedented levels of offense throughout the game.)

Since that time, Dozier has recorded a tepid .226/.297/.391 batting line. His authoritative batted-ball profile from that 2019 season has wilted and now looks quite pedestrian, and Dozier doesn’t have the defensive skills to offset his now lackluster offense. He’s posted respectable defensive grades at first base but ranks as one of the worst third basemen and right fielders in the sport, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

With $17.5MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, Dozier’s deal is underwater. He could potentially be swapped out for another bad contract, although the Royals typically haven’t made that type of move in the past.

Longer Shots

There are, of course, others who could potentially be of interest to other clubs. The Royals control Brady Singer for another four seasons, and he just enjoyed what looks like a breakout 2022 campaign. Given that glut of remaining club control, however, there’s little reason to entertain the idea of moving Singer unless another team makes a staggering offer. For different reasons, reliever Josh Staumont also seems unlikely to go. The Royals control Staumont through 2025, and from 2020-21 he looked like a long-term piece in the bullpen. Staumont’s walk rate spiked to an awful 16.5% last year, though, and he missed a combined seven weeks with a neck strain and biceps tendinitis. Trading him now would be selling low on a potential power-armed, leverage reliever.

Behind the plate, Salvador Perez is entrenched as the effective captain of the Royals. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier in the offseason that the Royals have no interest in moving Perez, who’s owed $64MM over the next three seasons. That’s not at all surprising, given his status within the organization. Some might naturally think that means young catcher and recent top prospect MJ Melendez could be available, but the Royals have worked Melendez into the outfield and DH mix as well. With six years of club control remaining, there’s little reason to think he’d be available, particularly on the heels of a down season. Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.

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